Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 10 Sep 2010 08:58

There will be political ramifications in India if the PLA presence is confirmed. It throws out all the CFL/Art 370 type agreements once non Indian sub-continent nations have established their foothold.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Bade » 10 Sep 2010 09:01

If Pak did not use nukes during Kargil, why would they risk using it now if India lands troops in POK areas alone. From all accounts it seems like POK has become a millstone around Pak's neck and it is trying to only profit from it by allowing PRC military and mining in POK openly. Pak nukes are a non-issue to inflict limited damage in POK areas with Chinese presence, if India does not intend to do a complete takeover at one go. Break up the incursions from our side to small chunks like the Chinese do.

How was Siachen taken over ? It should be done in similar vein if India is not ready for a full scale war.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby shiv » 10 Sep 2010 09:05

Thomas Kolarek wrote:FYI - I am not an American.



That is perfectly clear to me. It is usually non Americans who attribute more power and influence to America than it has. Americans are more circumspect. In my case it has usually been my own Indian American relatives who are talking about the powerful influence that superpower America has and how piffling Indians should respond to that and serve America better for the purpose of making things better for India - which only Sri Sri Sri America can do - because you need to see America to see how good they have made things for themselves.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby shiv » 10 Sep 2010 09:17

Bade wrote:If Pak did not use nukes during Kargil, why would they risk using it now if India lands troops in POK areas alone.


Bade, in 1965 Pakistan initiated operation Grand Slam - an attack aross the Indian border in Kashmir where Indian forces were overwhelmed. Pakistanis mostly are not taught this as part of history. In response to this Lal Bahadur Shastri opened another front in Punjab near Lahore. This was on Sept 6th 1965 and that is how Sept 6th came to be known as Paki armed forces day - the day the "Indian plan to invade Pakistan was defeated". :roll: Ayub Khan's"address to the Pakistani nation" was after this event - Pakis had no inkling that Pakistan had already started Operation Gibraltar before that followed by Operation Grand Slam

Before the Kargil war Paki Gen Javid Nasir wrote that nuclear weapons would prevent India from opening another front as it had done in 1965. India in fact stuck to that script. India did not open another front. But what India did in 1999 was not what Pakistan expected, nor was it what happened in 1965. The Kargil incursion was cleared without expanding the war to other fronts.

If India invades PoK the Pakistani game plan has always been to grab some Indian territory somewhere so that a war that ends with international pressure will leave both countries with tracts of each others' territory which can be exchanged. So if India makes a push into PoK we have to be certain that Pakistan does not capture a huge tract of Indian Punjab or Rajasthan. That means overwhelming force with a capital "O". I have read that the Pakistani terrain in Kashmir is more favorable to them and our best chance of making the Pakis wilt in Kashmir would be to attack Pakjab with strength forcing Pakistan to split its forces - leaving PoK weak and less well defended.

That is exactly what Pakistan fears and that is why this is exactly their nuclear red line. The idea that a nuclear armed nation may not use its nukes is clearly a gamble.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Bade » 10 Sep 2010 09:36

Shiv, thanks for the piece of war history. So difficult terrain and need for multiple fronts to meet goals in POK, leaves us with only plausible deniability methods at our disposal and become PRC party poopers as you have put it eloquently before. Meanwhile keep bending iron at war pace.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Prem » 10 Sep 2010 09:36

Another crazy question, If Chinese intervene and uses CM against Indian forces , then cant we start drowning them in Indian Ocean? First its not their territory or war and they willbe responsible for accelration. IMHO, ten Trilly Economy, 2Mill strong Armed forces and 500 B'astras aimed at China will make them think thrice before they try to stop us Poak hunting.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby negi » 10 Sep 2010 09:39

The 'go getters' did what was supposed to be done in 71 all this when Unkil was gnashing its teeth and a nuclear armed PRC could well have taken advantage of the situation, today Unkil does not have cojones to take on NoKo/Iran so taking on India imho is ruled out. PRC is well placed with the loot in 1962 why would it risk 're-opening' the Tibet chapter and for what (It might as well consider taking Nepal ) ?

All in all one would never know until one tries; for instance we haven't bombed the Chinese for their regular intrusions across the LaC, have we ? (I forgot dimwits have NFU in place) . Similarly there is no harm in pushing the LoC by an inch or so at a place and time of our choosing; something on the lines of what Chinese are alleged to be doing to us in Laddakh (we only have to hope that there are similar idiots on Baki side as in 10 janpath who can later brush these off saying it is 'inhabitable/arid' land onlee or claim that maps were not drawn accurately enough ). :)

As I remarked elsewhere we need a clear agenda to be set by the usual suspects, today IA might not be in a position to capture PoK or 'xyz' area but that is because it has it has NO mandate to do so (courtesy our furrin bolicy). Aspects like men, material and strategy can be looked into once the desire to capture an area is well established, that aside we also need to learn to make our problem everyone's problem (something which Bakis are good at).

--typos
Last edited by negi on 10 Sep 2010 10:01, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Klaus » 10 Sep 2010 09:54

shiv wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Added later: Earnestly requesting moderators to move this and the Managing Chinese Threat thread to the GDF.


Why?


To keep out the lurkers saar.

A couple of "incidents" causing a few miners to be buried alive and aptly timed orchestration of landslides on convoys will send the Chinese back into Sinkiang. Only few tens of dynamite sticks needed. Plausible deniability assured even if finger of suspicion is raised. China has had plenty of mining accidents in its coal mines anyway.

OTOH with the reckless way in which they've been mining around glaciers, one cannot rule out mother nature teaching them a lesson or two in the near term.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby shiv » 10 Sep 2010 10:29

Let me state some "first thoughts" from inside my head.

I was an adult (and well beyond school) when I discovered that the left bump of Kashmir (PoK) was in Pakistan and the right bump of Kashmir (Aksai China) was in China. As far as I was concerned PoK was full of Pakis. Nothing that I read about PoK suggested that those Pakis were desperate to rejoin India. In fact I have been constantly fed the exact opposite information - that is, that J&K Kashmiris want to be Pakis. This has been suggested even here on BRF on many occasions by many different people.

So, my mind tells me:
1) J&K Kashmiris want Pakistan
2) PoK residents are already Pakis
3) What we are trying to do is to hold the J&K we have first and while we do this I am being told that we need to abrogate some Indian constitutional amendment (370) and ask separatist Kashmiris to migrate to Pakistan.

If the above 3 postulates are correct my questions are
a) What the fug are we trying to do by taking PoK when we are still struggling to make J&K fully Indian despite self imposed constitutional handicaps? Surely it would be a good idea to "settle" J&K no?
b) Who cares if there are Pakis or Chinese or Martians in PoK? If any of those groups wanted to join India it would be different. Who among these want to join India?

Now this is where I see "Chinese troops in PoK" as a possible advantage for India.

First people need to understand what I did not understand until the late 1990s. If you know it - that is fine but I write this for those who do not know.

PoK is not the same as Azad Kashmir

"Azad Kashmir" is a small strip of land to the West of Jammu and Srinagar.
The "top left bump" of Kashmir consists of Gilgit, Baltistan and Balwaristan - the so called "Northern territories" of Pukistan.

It is now being alleged that the "top left bump" of Kashmir has been given to China. Note that the small strip of land called "Azad Kashmir" has not been given to China. Pakis have always had trouble in the Gilgit/Baltistan/Balwaristan areas. That is where Pakis have massacred Shias and they face a somewhat hostile but sparse population. It is alleged that this area has now been gifted to the Chinese. Big deal. What difference does it make to India?

The important thing is to see if Chinese can get "Azad Kashmir" as a gift. Now we insist that many Indian Kashmiri Muslims are anti-India. I would love to see them becoming pro-China if Azad Kashmir becomes part of China and Chinese troops enter Azad Kashmir. I put it to the folks on here that Chinese troops will not enter Azad Kashmir. If they do it will be a powerful signal to Kashmiris that their identity can be assured by India alone. The infiltration we have into J&K today will become exfiltration to sabotage Chinese interests. Any Chinese highways and pipelines have to run either through Azad Kashmir or through Khyber Pakhtunkwa. India will have to stoke rebellion in Baltistan and Azad Kashmir while becoming more shrill about Tibet. It is possible that India will finally wake up to the great game and play its role. A Chinese attempt on Kashmir will be just the right catalyst.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby shiv » 10 Sep 2010 10:31

Klaus wrote:
Added later: Earnestly requesting moderators to move this and the Managing Chinese Threat thread to the GDF.
Why?

To keep out the lurkers saar.


But Klaus BRF is hardly an security/intel establishment. Anyone can become a member. Keeping out lurkers is a mistake, and to be honest with you a lot of regulars too keep out of the hijab forum.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Altair » 10 Sep 2010 10:41

Rudradev wrote:The problem is LACMs. The PLA has thousands of these tucked away all over Tibet. We have no defense against them. They are a potent stand-off weapon, and can be deployed in barrages to quickly blunt any IA thrust in Gilgit-Baltistan, not to mention destroy any infrastructure and interdict supply routes to IA units in that theatre. Until we have a way to counter the Chinese LACMs, there is zero percent chance that IA can grab the Northern Areas.


Rudradev ji
Contrary to what many think here in BRF,I think Pakistanis have presented us with a golden opportunity to reclaim our territory.
Fact 1: Pakistanis have ceded control of POK and have no right over the territory,they never did anyways.
Fact 2: China is occupying legitimate Indian territory/disputed territory of two sovereign nations



If it was Tibet or Arunachal Pradesh matter would have been different.If India launches a overwhelming military thrust and capture POK, there is a chance China will withdraw without a fight in POK.
It is however a different issue if China chooses to open a second or third front elsewhere, which I am sure they will try.
The second and third fronts must be handled and I am sure they will be handled.
The scoring point is POK can be reclaimed once and for all.

China is not going to risk a full blown war with India over POK.

This is a gamble China played to test meek India and dimwit Indian political establishment. Its time to call their bluff.

JMT
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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby svenkat » 10 Sep 2010 11:00

My two cents.

At the time of Independence,JLN thought that the Kashmir valley could be 'integrated' into India and for bad or worse,we have the Abdullahs,Mufti Mohammeds,Bakshis who operate(d) 'within' Indian constitution.Nehru was unsure of the cultural distance between Muzzaffarabad and Gilgit with India,once partition was decided.So he 'let go' Azaad Cashmere as the best bet among worst alternatives.I am sure anyone can glean this when one reads narratives of that period after the blood soaked partition.

The residents of Gilgit-Baltistan hate pakjabis but that does not translate into love fest with India.Talking of invasion of GB today is premature.The roots are diseased.The fruits will fall in time.

Also Muzzaffarabad and Mirpur harbour deep hatred for India and only by crossing LOC at Kargil can we even think of reclaiming GB.That is more in the realm of fanatasy now.Porkistan should stew in the scum they are brewing in Balwaaristan,that is good enough.
Last edited by svenkat on 10 Sep 2010 11:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby AdityaM » 10 Sep 2010 11:02

ramana wrote:There will be political ramifications in India if the PLA presence is confirmed. It throws out all the CFL/Art 370 type agreements once non Indian sub-continent nations have established their foothold.


Which is why i fear it never will be confirmed. Why rock the boat?
Sit still and you don't have to do anything if nothing has happened. Confirm once and then you will be forced to stand up.

Otherwise, why wouldn't India have known it before the american paper got to know. dont we have humint there. You cant handover the land and not expect locals to notice.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Altair » 10 Sep 2010 11:09

svenkat wrote:Also Muzzaffarabad and Mirpur harbour deep hatred for India and only by crossing LOC at Kargil can we even think of reclaiming GB.That is more in the realm of fanatasy now.Porkistan should stew in the scum they are brewing in Balwaaristan,that is good enough.


I think you are missing the whole point. This is not about people in mirpur or muzarrafabad. This is about China and Chinese march into central asia. If we dont stop China now, we may never will.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Klaus » 10 Sep 2010 11:10

Shiv ji, interesting observation by you on the transport route which needs to be taken by Chinese industry towards Gwadar. My guess is they will choose to route it through Azad Kashmir rather than KP, being the lesser of the two evils. It would be interesting to see extremist elements lynching/abducting/executing Chinese labour.

My guess is that PLA will not enter Azad Kashmir or KP thanks to posturing and H&D pretensions of TSPA. Correct me if I am wrong.

OTOH, it is by now a relatively well known fact that timber logging/mafia in KP caused the Paki flooding. Could this logging be done in order to make way for Chinese roads/railway/pipelines? If yes, then we can look forward to more man-made (oops...Chinese made) disasters this year.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Altair » 10 Sep 2010 11:13

shiv wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Added later: Earnestly requesting moderators to move this and the Managing Chinese Threat thread to the GDF.
Why?

To keep out the lurkers saar.


But Klaus BRF is hardly an security/intel establishment. Anyone can become a member. Keeping out lurkers is a mistake, and to be honest with you a lot of regulars too keep out of the hijab forum.


Shiv & Klaus
What are you guys talking about??
What is GDF and what is Hijab forum? I am relatively new so kindly enlighten me.
TIA
Altair

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby svenkat » 10 Sep 2010 11:18

Altair,
You seem to have some mythical faith in Chinese capabilities in GB.They will face formidable difficulties in foreign territory .

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Klaus » 10 Sep 2010 11:22

Altair,

GDF is acronym for General Discussions Forum. Also known as the hijab or "behind the burqah" forum as lurkers cannot browse content.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Altair » 10 Sep 2010 11:26

OK Ok! I thought it was some secret meeting place in a dark corner of Internet!

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Pratyush » 10 Sep 2010 11:34

Altair wrote:OK Ok! I thought it was some secret meeting place in a dark corner of Internet!


Oh.....But It ij. :twisted:

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby shiv » 10 Sep 2010 13:47

RamaY wrote:
For a moment let us assume India's defense strategy is defence oriented. Then how did lose 1962 war? Did PRC really commit 3:1 force ratios?



Here is one of many refs:
http://www.accultured.com/page.php?id=30
In summary, the Indian army was in a poor state, especially in their readiness for alpine warfare. Their fire power, supply system, training, and readiness for mountain operations were all quite lacking. They had significant personnel shortages, and would often be outnumbered by the Chinese by 5:1. To pit troops in such circumstances against an enemy superior in every detail of military strength would be absurd; to leave them in an early winter of heavy snow and freezing temperatures would be to condemn them to steady and severe attrition from expo- sure and illness and, before long, starvation.3 But this is what India did.

Under these circumstances, India's forward policy was militarily nonsensical. But some politicians and leaders sim- ply believe what they want to believe. Nehru was still con- vinced that his army would be almost invincible against the Chinese. He would soon learn how wrong he was.


What you are talking about is described in the quote above highlighted in red. The Chinese did their homework well. India suffered for not doing the same. Never again. We are a defence oriented nation. A certain degree of offence is part of defence but we have not structured our forces to deliberately invade any neighbouring country. We would have to have a deliberate plan to do that. And massive upgradation of military strength and reserves. Neither Pakistan, nor China nor India has "weak opponents" who are a pushover.

Of course opportunities may arise where territorial advancement is possible (Siachen, 1971) - but there is no deliberate preparation to occupy territory and in the absence of such deliberate preparation any question of doing that is out.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Pratyush » 10 Sep 2010 14:16

For those who suggest that India is a defence oriented nation. Please remember that a good offence is the best defence. If we wish to be taken seriously by the ROW the offencive capability must be enhanced tremendously.

But what we are seeing is that the IAs ability to go on the offensive is deeply compromised at present against the PLA. If the IA is to inspire the fear of god in the minds of PLA. Then it must develop the ability to diliver a killer blow against the PLA in Tibet.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Pratyush » 10 Sep 2010 14:19

Shiv,

The opportunity of territorial expansion need to exploited as an when the opportunity presents it self. Deal with the issue of integrating the territory within India later.

Think like the TSPA with Kargil in this regard. If you catch my drift.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby RajeshA » 10 Sep 2010 15:38

ramana wrote:RajeshA, Do you think
- in a failing TSP, US will like India to have POK?
- Or would they prefer the PRC?
- Or has PRC moved in due to 2008 meltdown?
- Or has TSP invited PRC to come in as it cant handle the stress?


Some initial thoughts
o Or has TSP invited PRC to come in as it cant handle the stress?

There are two sides to it.
The Pakistani Side
Pakistani Army is under stress from many sides.
  • It keeps a strong presence on the border with India
  • It continues with, at least for the time being, with the horse and pony show, with their deployment along the Durand Line in 'support' of the American troops there.
  • It aids the Afghan Taliban in unofficial capacity
  • It looks after its Kashmir Jihad project
  • It fights the Pakistani Taliban within Pakistan
  • It keeps the Punjab Taliban under control, and an eye on Al Qaeda influence
  • It keeps an eye on the Baluchistan front
  • It manages its various business and property investments within Pakistan
  • It protects its own cantonments and air force bases within Pakistan
  • Right now it is also to some extent busy with the effects of the floods in Pakistan

On top of it comes the challenge of keeping a vast swath of territory - the Northern Areas safe from both a stronger enemy India and the Azadi urges of the Balawaristanis themselves. The Pakistani Army can use some more friendly boots on the ground.

The question is what does Northern Areas mean for Pakistanis?
  1. The importance of Northern Areas lies in the geographic connection Pakistan gets to China - a supplier of arms, cheap goods, nuclear materials, and possibly military support when the going gets tough. It is not just the KKH but also the air corridor that is important. It provides a huge mental crutch to the Pakistani Army that it is not on its own pitted against a larger and stronger neighbor India.
  2. Other than that Indus flows through the Northern Areas, which is sort of the life-line of Pakistan. The Northern Areas can be used to build dams and water storage facilities. Some of the biggest fresh water sources are in Northern Areas - the Glaciers (Baltoro, Biafo, Batura).
  3. Mineral wealth
  4. Then there is the political-military importance of Northern Areas, which includes denying India access to Central Asia, thereby boxing in India into South Asia.

So at the moment Pakistan does see a distinct strategic value to Northern Areas.

The Chinese Side
It suffices here to point out to Philip's to-the-point summarization:
Philip wrote:The latest "F" mag has an rticle on how we can fight the Chinese and save Tawang,if they invade.While it has always been a looming threat that China might try and sever the N-Eastern states from the rest of India,one must realise that that will bring China few real military and strategic gains,barring denying India its oil supplies from Assam.

The real aim of China is a global one,to dominate the energy rsources of the world,where China has first "sip" of the oil.The largest petro rich region in the world is the Gulf region.China has been relentlessly building up its infrastructure in Tibet ,so that Chinese troops and material can easily move from the heart of "Mainland China" to the west,to Tibet and then through POK/Aksai Chin into Pak finishing at Gwadar.From here China can either take the road route to Iran,or enter the Gulf by sea.IN a crisis in the future,Iran might call upon Chinese help just as the NoKos did during the Korean War.Pak might also want PRC troops to assist it during a crisis.That is why the sudden "discovery" that Chinese troops in large number are sceretly at work in POK.Tawang is the "red herring",which though critically important to India and the Tibetan diaspora,is the direction that China wants us to move towards,while taking our eyes off the mischief being done in POK/Aksai Chin wiht the connivance of Pak.The beauty of this is that China can operate almost at will in POK,thanks to Pak,and unless India threatens military strikes there,as we claim POK to be ours,right from 1947/48,it being part of the undivided state of J&K ,where China has no claim whatsoever.Any presence of Chinese troops in POK must be countered by India in th strongest measure,both diplomatically and militarily.

However,countering the relentles march of the Dragon,requires immediate and sustained focus by India in enlarging the armed forces,especially numbers of mountain divisions in the Himalayas and a enlarged IAF to deal with the threat from the Tbet region.The "F" mag in another article compares the relative airpower strength of China (what it can oppose us from Tibet) and India.With only 30 effective combat sqds. in hand,we at the moment are sorely stretched especially if pak also comes into military play,which from their track record they will do with evil glee,well knowung that the next time round it will be Sino-Pak forces against a lone India,which no longer has the Indo-Soviet treaty to insure it from Chinese attack.

Sadly,Dr.Singh's disastrous foreign policy,putting all his "marbles" into American hands,especially at a time when America in effect is in total rerteat,both from Iraq an later on Afghanistan,is endangering the nation with increasing anxiety each day as more and more details of Chinese chicanery become visible.


To add to that:
  • As a Pacific Ocean Power, China will always be challenged by USA and its friends, and the possibility that it can beat USA in 'soft-power' any time are slim. Japan, South Korea, South-East Asia would retain their tilt towards USA.
  • In Central Asia, it has to contend with Russia, which sees the area as its 'Near-Abroad'. Secondly that way also takes it through the Afghan badlands of Islamic Jihadism of Pushtuns.
  • What China wants to do is to become a Persian Gulf power with a big naval presence in Gwadar and a direct supply route over KKH. This will help build-up the infrastructure in Sinkiang and Tibet, and support an increased migration of the Han Chinese towards these areas, giving China a stronger strategic depth.
  • To that comes China's string of pearls - Hainan (China), Sittwe (Myanmar), Chittagong (Bangladesh), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Gwadar (Pakistan).

We are talking about a Superpower with a reach and sway with which India would find it very difficult to keep up. To put it mildly, India will not enjoy the peace that Canada enjoys.

TSP-PRC Plan
PRC Plan is to take over POK completely, and to push India out of Kashmir.

Pakistan cannot take care of POK. Its forces are overstretched, and Pakistan will enjoy Northern Areas' strategic value even if it is becomes Chinese territory.
  • Connection to China check
  • Fresh Water + Indus check
  • Mineral wealth check: Pakistanis do not have the wherewithal to extract the minerals anyway, so they get their 30% share from the Chinese.
  • Denial of Central Asian access to India check

Pakistan can inflame Kashmir situation indefinitely, and with Chinese putting pressure from the North, India could be forced to give up Kashmir, giving China an even broader route to Pakjab, and making the danger of Indian attack on KKH evaporate.

In fact China may have promised Pakistan Kashmir Valley if Pakistan gives POK to China.

POK, in fact, is crucial to China, if it wants to develop Tibet and Sinkiang and make them Han-Chinese friendly regions. Also China's string of pearls is to some extent dependent on Chinese land access to South West Asia (Gwadar).

With China almost having brought Nepal into its sphere of influence, and with a Maoist insurgency in India, one could that India becomes all the more susceptible to be cut off at Siliguri Corridor. Also the Marxist hold in West Bengal should give Indians food for thought. So not only Kashmir, but India's North-East is also susceptible.

If China gets POK, India can forget to create a duopoly in Asia, and that would have its effects across the board, from Japan, to Vietnam, to Indonesia, to Iran, and beyond.

China has already checkmated USA with buying so deeply into US Treasury bonds, that China now feels it can have its way in Asia.

Within 15 years one could see Asia ruled from Beijing, with Indians learning the lingua franca of Asia - Mandarin, a new generation of WKKs blaring on our TVs how Hu has praised India's role in bringing stability to the Deccan and on the other side of the Pacific, USA would keep on making TV shows about the good old heady days of American superpowerdom that lasted all the 35 years.

POK makes or breaks history.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Pratyush » 10 Sep 2010 17:23

ramana wrote:RajeshA, Do you think
- in a failing TSP, US will like India to have POK?
- Or would they prefer the PRC?
- Or has PRC moved in due to 2008 meltdown?
- Or has TSP invited PRC to come in as it cant handle the stress?


Ramana,

Let me try to answer the first two pints raised by you. As Rajesh has already addressed the last two wonderfully

The US being the practitioner of realpolitik will always try to insure that in any vital region of the world it is able to maintain the balance of power between competing nations. That being the case, they will do every thing in their power to maintain an equilibrium in Asia. The efforts of the US can only be sustained if the TSP remains a viable entity. The questions raised by you are assuming the collapse of TSP and the US response to it.

Here goes nothing :D

A collapsed TSP will generate enormous stress on the security system of Sub-continent and its near abroad. Also, if TSP has collapsed. Then Afghanistan is also in danger of collapsing. In this scenario, the US would like to see a friendly and strong nation in Asia able to hold the PRC in check. Conversly, if India falls then the PRC is free to rule the roost in Asia without any peer level competitor.

So even if the US does not want to let India have POK. It will be left with no choice but to let India have it. In order to preserve the BOP in Asia.

So in order to preserve the BOP in Asia the US would like to preserve India against the PRC. Moreover, any support of PRC taking over POK will put additional stress on the US position in the CAR. Because try as I might, I cannot foresee the PRC cooperating with the US in the CAR. (However, much the atlanticists wish for it).

In line with this thinking even if the US does not like India taking over the POK. It will do nothing to obstruct Indian goals. If ever they are set to reclaim the POK.

If my line of thinking is correct,( It could be out of my Musharaff as well) then it is all the more important for the PRC to enter POK. In order to increase the stress on both India and the US. Whatever, the US will do they will not prefer PRC in POK. There are no upsides for them in the event of the collapse of TSP.

In the light of the above, PRC already may have started the game, if the news reports of the PLA in POK are accurate.

JMT and standard disclaimers apply.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby rohitvats » 10 Sep 2010 18:22

RamaY wrote:
<SNIP>

If India can open a mountain division (for acclimatization and practice purposes) in Jammu & Ladakh areas it can act as launching pad for its POK related operations
.

Well, your post actually betrays complete lack of knowledge about military affairs in these Himalayas. And yet, we have a series of posts about how this and that can be done - without any specifics.

For your information, there is a Mountain Division that sits on the Kargil border, another one to its south which guards the back door entry into valley, an overstrength reserve Infantry Brigade and another complete reserve division which can be inducted, if so required. So, it is not simply a case of inducting a Mountain Division.

And your map is way out of relevance. It places the MD in lower Ladakh, i think west of Zanskar Range. Here, it is useless even for the LAC, forget the POK.

The entire POK region is in <200 mile radius, ideal for all types of operations. This region is in the same altitude range (15,000 to 17000 Ft) as POK. This location can also act as the focal points to contain any PRC misadventures overseeing Aksai-Chin and KKH.


Well, my dear good sir, this is plain nonsense. "Only 200 miles and ideal for all types of operations?" This is high-altitude that you're talking about. Where the movement in any sizeable and effective numbers can happen only along the river valleys and that too largely by foot. And then there is space of real estate. Even the IA warrants that MD move at 40-50kms in a day at max. Why do you ask? Because there is a small matter taking care of logistics in these mountains. Our favorite Kommandu tried to over look this small matter and we know what happened to TSPA.

Oh! there is another small fly in the ointment. The opposition by the enemy. Let me share a small data point - IA committed 30 Infantry Battalions and 10+Regiments of Artillery during Kargil. And against how many NLI Battalions? Troops from 7 NLI Battalions. And mind you, not the whole of some of the NLI Battalions were committed. And these were troops which were not backed to full extent by the TSPA. So, you're talking about an overall ratio of 1:4. Assaults on actual posts had ratios in excess of 1:10. Yes, any assault on POK will be less of up-hill frontal assaults, but the problem will increase because we'd figting TSPA upfront.

IA can train and prepare its air-lift capabilities from its HP or UP bases to see if it can airlift a 10K size armed brigade within hours.


Well, sir, you are living in a dream world. Airlift 10K sized brigade? :eek: Btw, brigade has ~3,000 troops. We can have a round the cloclk effort and spread over couple of days, but matter of hours? Maybe, 6-8years down the line.

For this operation IA/IAF would have to mobilize few mountain divisions, hundreds of Brahmos type precision missiles, dozens of Akash batteries augmented by nuke-tipped Agnis and Shauryas as insurance.


Again, some 5-8years down the line. Today, this is a fantasy. Except for Mountain Divisons. Two can be inducted now.

Let it be understood very clearly that any plan to undertake POK will be slugfest spread over a month or more. PLA or no PLA. There is unlikely to be a blitzkrieg in these areas. It will need to be done in the hard way.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby rohitvats » 10 Sep 2010 18:30

Altair wrote:^^
A sudden thrust by Indian forces into POK will definitely surprise PLA. I think we can have complete air superiority over POK airspace within the first 100 Hrs. I am counting on China not opening a second front. Please correct me if I am wrong.


PLA is not even an issue here. 10K PLA troops does not automatically translate into cohesive 10K fighting troops under some superior HQ and with their support elements.

And why are you forgetting some ~20K PA Troops in the area. Are they simply going to roll over and play dead? No. They will fight.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Lalmohan » 10 Sep 2010 18:40

^^^ send sunny deol with bazooka, and bobby as reinforcement

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby RamaY » 10 Sep 2010 19:06

rohitvats wrote:Oh! there is another small fly in the ointment. The opposition by the enemy. Let me share a small data point - IA committed 30 Infantry Battalions and 10+Regiments of Artillery during Kargil. And against how many NLI Battalions? Troops from 7 NLI Battalions. And mind you, not the whole of some of the NLI Battalions were committed. And these were troops which were not backed to full extent by the TSPA. So, you're talking about an overall ratio of 1:4. Assaults on actual posts had ratios in excess of 1:10. Yes, any assault on POK will be less of up-hill frontal assaults, but the problem will increase because we'd figting TSPA upfront.

...

Well, sir, you are living in a dream world. Airlift 10K sized brigade? :eek: Btw, brigade has ~3,000 troops. We can have a round the cloclk effort and spread over couple of days, but matter of hours? Maybe, 6-8years down the line.

...

Again, some 5-8years down the line. Today, this is a fantasy. Except for Mountain Divisons. Two can be inducted now.

Let it be understood very clearly that any plan to undertake POK will be slugfest spread over a month or more. PLA or no PLA. There is unlikely to be a blitzkrieg in these areas. It will need to be done in the hard way.


Rohitvats garu

I never claimed knowledge on military affairs. What I always pointed though was that Indian military strategists cannot hide behind the excuse of geography as it didn't change for a million+ years.

Thanks for the Kargil example. First of all, it nullifies Shiv-ji's claim that the offensive power has to have 3:1 force ratio. Secondly in Kargil IA's hands were tied with LOC logic. Request you to provide some insight into an alternative Kargil scenario if GOI decided to cross the LOC. Thirdly I do not know if NLI is better suited/equipped than TSPA. Finally we should have learned a lot from Kargil experience, if we didn't that is our military leadership issue.

Right now, TSPA is stuck with two disasters at hand one self-made and one god-sent. TSPA may be able to move out from its western operations but cannot come out of the god-sent crisis.

Based on my limited knowledge, a POK type operation requires multiple layers of offensive/defensive strategy
- A long range missile shield to neutralize/suppress enemy air-defenses (Can Brahmos do this in offensive role and Akash in defensive role?)
- Air-liftable long range MBRL to suppress enemy divisions (Can our MBRLs and Pinaka do the job?)
- Air-borne mechanized divisions to move from one Vally/ridge to another. (This is where we need high capacity high-altitude helis)
- Acclimatized armed mountain divisions to hold the territory (You are saying we have this capability)
- A well-oiled logistics system (Can we bring public-private partnership into this?)

You are putting 5-8 year time frame to this preparedness. I am saying the sooner the better for the past 2 years. If our political/military leadership envisioned this scenario on time (I am sure they have info to see at least 1-2 yrs ahead of us) we would have all these capabilities by 2011-12. That is my point.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Altair » 10 Sep 2010 19:11

rohitvats wrote:
Altair wrote:^^
A sudden thrust by Indian forces into POK will definitely surprise PLA. I think we can have complete air superiority over POK airspace within the first 100 Hrs. I am counting on China not opening a second front. Please correct me if I am wrong.


PLA is not even an issue here. 10K PLA troops does not automatically translate into cohesive 10K fighting troops under some superior HQ and with their support elements.

And why are you forgetting some ~20K PA Troops in the area. Are they simply going to roll over and play dead? No. They will fight.



I am not bothered if it is 20,000 PA troops or 30,000 troops. Only thing which counts is which army fights better on that day. How its command and communications fare and how the strategy and tactics work under overwhelming enemy assault and in the most hostile place on earth.
20,000 PA troops will become a guerrilla force. I am aware of that possibility.Nobody is saying we will come out of the war without a scratch or a bleeding nose or even a broken leg.
This will be 100 times tougher than kargil and we must be prepared for it.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby shiv » 10 Sep 2010 19:45

May I butt in with a question?

If we take PoK tomorrow, what have we gained?

And what will we do with what we have gained?

The answer to these two question IMO will have a bearing on how much we should be willing to pay to regain PoK.

I have a reason for saying this. The terrain and access to PoK is difficult and there are major hurdles to gaining and holding territory. So we have to decide whether we want territory for emotional reasons or economic gain. The hordes that came into India came for economic gain. The British came by sea for economic gain. China is looking for economic gain by building a land route through PoK.

If we are looking for economic gain - is PoK the place to look for it? If we are going to spend money and lives for territory that we do not hold and are looking for economic gain then could we not perhaps use the sea route to capture an oil rich gulf state? This may sound preposterous but it sounds as feasible to me as capturing PoK and far more valuable in economic terms. In order to be true international benchodds like the British empire, USA and China we have to prepare to grab what gives us something tangible "in our right hand" Looked at in this way PoK does not cut it even though it is next door.

If we really want deals for Central Asian oil what we need is air power to maintain a presence on Afghanistan. Using sea power we need to either grab some Gulf state, Australian lands or act like Pakistan/Somalia and run a protection racket in the Indian ocean where all passing ships pay jaziya or get a Brahmos. trick or treat. Why PoK? What's it worth to us other than some emotions and competition with historic wrongs committed by the hated ROPERs? In fact it is exactly this historic ROPer competition that has held us down and threatens to continue to do that a we hanker for essentially useless territory. Even if capturing those mountains gave us better access to Afghanistan it would be fine. But it does not. I only gives us more access to Xinjiang. Afghan access is via NWFP. Heck if Chinese want a pipeline we can get rent by putting one across the Karakoram pass up to a Gujarat refinery. What is the fighting for exactly. Echandee?

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Altair » 10 Sep 2010 20:00

shiv wrote: What is the fighting for exactly. Echandee?

Sometimes we fight not to gain something but to stop the enemy gaining a superior position. POK gone to china will forever make India a secondary power in Asia.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Lalmohan » 10 Sep 2010 20:00

does holding POK allow us to deny PRC ease of communications between Uiguristan and Tibet?
does it infact allow us to put two unglis in dragon's musharraf?

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby shiv » 10 Sep 2010 20:04

Altair wrote:
shiv wrote: What is the fighting for exactly. Echandee?

Sometimes we fight not to gain something but to stop the enemy gaining a superior position. POK gone to china will forever make India a secondary power in Asia.

How?

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby RamaY » 10 Sep 2010 20:37

shiv wrote:May I butt in with a question?

If we take PoK tomorrow, what have we gained?

And what will we do with what we have gained?

The answer to these two question IMO will have a bearing on how much we should be willing to pay to regain PoK.

I have a reason for saying this. The terrain and access to PoK is difficult and there are major hurdles to gaining and holding territory. So we have to decide whether we want territory for emotional reasons or economic gain. The hordes that came into India came for economic gain. The British came by sea for economic gain. China is looking for economic gain by building a land route through PoK.

If we are looking for economic gain - is PoK the place to look for it? If we are going to spend money and lives for territory that we do not hold and are looking for economic gain then could we not perhaps use the sea route to capture an oil rich gulf state? This may sound preposterous but it sounds as feasible to me as capturing PoK and far more valuable in economic terms. In order to be true international benchodds like the British empire, USA and China we have to prepare to grab what gives us something tangible "in our right hand" Looked at in this way PoK does not cut it even though it is next door.

If we really want deals for Central Asian oil what we need is air power to maintain a presence on Afghanistan. Using sea power we need to either grab some Gulf state, Australian lands or act like Pakistan/Somalia and run a protection racket in the Indian ocean where all passing ships pay jaziya or get a Brahmos. trick or treat. Why PoK? What's it worth to us other than some emotions and competition with historic wrongs committed by the hated ROPERs? In fact it is exactly this historic ROPer competition that has held us down and threatens to continue to do that a we hanker for essentially useless territory. Even if capturing those mountains gave us better access to Afghanistan it would be fine. But it does not. I only gives us more access to Xinjiang. Afghan access is via NWFP. Heck if Chinese want a pipeline we can get rent by putting one across the Karakoram pass up to a Gujarat refinery. What is the fighting for exactly. Echandee?


I know you would raise such a rhetorical question :twisted: I would try to answer it anyway, hopefully some jhollawalahs open their eyes.

Complete control over POK and NA would offer the following benefits to Indians -

1. Control over all Indus rivers. Without breaking IWT (because we are good guys) India can build run-of-the-river power projects. Lets assume we can build 2000MW capacity. Est. Annual Revenue > Rs. 5000 Cr.

2. Can build energy pipelines from CAR region. Est. Annual Revenue > Rs. 5000 Cr

3. Can open trade routes to CAR region. Est. Annual Revenue (including employment generation for our beloved Kashmiris) > Rs. 5000 Cr (assuming a $10B annual trade)

4. Access to natural resources in NA. If they are valuable to PRC, they must be valuable to India. Est. Annual Revenue > Rs. 1000 Cr

5. Savings from Cashmere internal security improvement. Est Annual Savings > Rs. 5000 Cr.

6. Improved internal and international tourism to entire JK state. Est. Annual Revenue > Rs. 5000 Cr

7. Indian sovereignty over entire JK state will prohibit PRC from accessing Baluchistan trade/energy route. Assuming it raises costs (or eliminates cost savings) for PRC at 0.5% of its $4T economy. Assuming that these increased costs allow India to gain 25% of that trade. ($4T x 0.5% x 0.25%) - Est. Annual Revenue > Rs. 20,000 Cr

Total Annual additional revenue or cost savings = Rs. 46,000 Cr or $10B.
Lives saved from reduced terrorism and improved national cohesion ~= 1000

Assuming a 20 yr gestation period we are looking at approximately $200B and 20,000 lives as the benefit from POK war. Can IA win POK for less than that???

Finally, every Indian except a couple of millions of WKK/Jhollahwalah type zombies will get a tremendous (once in a hundred years) ech-en-dee boost. Annual Revenue = Priceless!!!

P.S: I think you forgot to bring the nuke-dimension. Except some brain-dead zombies, every one knows that Pakistan is destined to implode/explode sooner than later. If there exists a paki-nuke it is destined to explode at that time. So Paki-nuke explosion is an unavoidable thing on India's fate. So there is no change to it (assuming the ever increasing nuke-damage is commensurate to India's GDP growth rate and population-inflation).

P.PS: I do not think we should think POK from either TSP or PRC angle. We have to claim it on the basis of our history/culture and legal claim on that land. All that you wrote about IOR trick-treat will be PRC centric and will be required to use when push comes to shove in NE/Tibet.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Venkarl » 10 Sep 2010 20:53

^^ land connection to Afghanistan..from where Tajik base is very close

but we have to tame the terrain and people there..

will a heightened and over the edge tensions of secession in Kashmir make Indian leadership to do off with Art 370? leading to a change in demographics which actually is favorable to India in finishing off the so called "Kashmiriyat" movement? and then target G and B?

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby shiv » 10 Sep 2010 20:56

RamaY there is no land route to Afghanistan via PoK. The land route via PoK leads to China. The route to Afghanistan is via Peshawar. The road to Peshawar is from Amritsar via Lahore

Image

PS why worry about IWT? We can abrogate it without capturing PoK no? Penny wise Pound foolish to capture PoK just to abrogate the treaty.

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby munna » 10 Sep 2010 21:06

I agree with Shiv-ji. There is no realistic land route to Afghanistan via POK. All that we have is a little tract known as the "Wakhan Corridor" that is open a few months in a year and even during those times is one of the most treacherous terrains outside of Antartica. But POK is ours and we shall have it :twisted:

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby shiv » 10 Sep 2010 21:09

It is better to recapture Lahore and Peshawar than PoK - the pointless land extent of some Raja in 1947

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Re: Pak Occupied Kashmir News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 10 Sep 2010 21:24

the photos one sees of pakistans routes into central asia and afghanistan fill one with a sense of dread at having to drive down them. perhaps under chinese funding the karakoram
highway is a little better but the rest are very dislikeable. one featured in natgeo's most dangerous journeys in the world. even jeeps have a rough time let alone any heavy vehicle.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKOwXcdgMoA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgYZQuU3 ... verified=1

as Shiv says its a lot easier through pakjab and peshawar/quetta into afghanistan.
Last edited by Singha on 10 Sep 2010 21:28, edited 1 time in total.


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