Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 2010)

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ShivaS
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ShivaS »

SwamyG wrote:Corps are now bigger than some countries, no? And the concept of Corporations is butting is head against the concept of Nation-States, no?

BTW, what is "pols" ?
This nothing new

In 1991 GM output in $ was greater Iraqs GDP. IIRC at that time Iraq was 22nd in the world in terms of GDP.

**************
Also the only area US can really cut its budget is Defence department and CIA budget.

But the minute you touch thise holy cows, the Repblicans will call anyone Coward.

By the way I think SS payments and pension payments are soveriegn debts, if they default on them might as well call it as GOTUS defaulted.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by enqyoob »

But I'd be worried that even their prices would drop as a result of US-led global economic downturn. If the dollar is much lower, then the economies of those who export to them would also take a dive.
Precisely my concern. Much of the Chinese boom and Indian EyeTea boom are riding on the (now 10% unemployed) American consumer. The 9.6% unemployment figure, BTW, is as bogus as all the rest of the figures, because they don't count the millions who have given up trying to find a job, or are just not counted whether they have given up or not. So think 15 to 20 % at least, counting (not necessarily voluntary) full-time homemakers. Where are these ppl going to find the $$ to buy the purses made in China or the tickets from Travelocity that may require a few dozen calls to "Sara" or "Bob" in "Customer Sarbhij" at Mumbai and all the blood pressure medication that follow?

The one exception to these is the oil economy of the Ummah. They still get to sell oil to all these other nations, notably including India, at whatever prices they can command. So I would not bet that much against the real estate markets in India or against the terrorist economy of Pakistan. Not that I can do anything about these, or to invest in them even if I wanted to.

Then again, if western e-Khanomies really start sinking, war will surely follow, if for no other reason than that the billionaires who can induce war will have run out of other lucrative investment options.

If there is war, oil prices will skyrocket. Indian economy will once again plunge. For that matter, a lot of the most expensive Indian real estate may be glowing. China I can't predict at all, except they will probably steal all foreign investment.

The breakout has to involve a shift to renewable energy, massive enough to drive down the price of oil until demand for chemical/plastics production picks up enough to soak up the oil. But who has money to invest in renewable energy?

The one hopeful sign I see is that the Obamacracy seems to be at least talking about investing big in renewables and forcing the auto industry to move away from fossils. I don't know how much serious alternative energy movement is present in India, despite all the rhetoric.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Singha »

well per capita use of fossil fuels in India is far far behind the OECD. case in point - our household electricity consumption (when there is electricity) - small scale bulbs, CFLs and tubelights popular in india way back when none were to be found in khan home depots, people riding bikes when they can afford a car and cycles when they can afford a bike. people also walk a lot here instead of firing up
that v8 suv to go buy a can of milk.

Sir, our energy habits are quite lean meat on the bone and what we need cannot be avoided unless the Govt cuts distribution losses and thefts and provides better public transport in many more cities.

its the big fat Khan who has so much fat on the meat it isnt remotely funny.

also whether with ragpickers or dangerous recycling shops, almost everything gets recycled here, without the need for "green earth days" and chi chi "e-waste disposal bins" in the offices...and this has always been that way.

our way of life is lowbrow and can absorb shocks, going by the mewling and squeals of pain emanating from khan's cave at the
small readjustments being forced, there are not.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by enqyoob »

I'm afraid that lean-mean model of the Lean Earth-friendly Yogi Desi is a bit outdated, Singhaji. The Modern Desi Couch Potato is not in any way less of a spender than the middle-class Khan. These days, it's when I go to desh that I see the Latest in flat-panel displays and satellite and cable TV, the latest in room airconditioners in desi ventilated concrete homes (fundamentally less efficient than central a/c in sealed insulated Khan-Caves), inverter-battery backup power systems that convert AC to DC to AC to beat the power cuts, gas-cooking every time someone walks into a house to make chai etc., and pervasive use of vans and Monster SUVs for trips of less than 1 mile because it is too damn dangerous to walk or ride bicycles, and anyway there are no pedestrian walkways or ped crossings, as they go to gorge on Chicken 65 or Lamb Biriyani to go with their bottle of Shivas Reagal.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

^^^Agreed. Am afraid sri n^3 might well have a point here.

Sure, Des's carbon footprint is pint sized compared the gorilla's godzilla sized one. That's probably largely to do with the fact that we don;t have the land and space to build the khan version of 'suburbia' - that is sustained only by low energy prices.

There are unwitting advantages in our urban squalor that could've/should've been ruthlessly leveraged - like the fact that a decent set of metros in our top 20 cities operational by 2020. Would cut out a out of the traffic chaos, parking issues, commuting pain and the like. But that's all OT here, perhaps.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Singha »

well the upper middle class in india able to afford such energy usage would be 50 mil at best. in khan *everyone* does that. even the homeless have a ipad and a blog site writing poetry or somethin.

japan/soko/singapore/taiwan/hk are probably the only models around of asian culture, high urban density, high per capita income and good public infra and planning to reduce wastage. japan is a pretty big country too, and is spread across islands and mountains.

we cannot go the khan way even if we wanted to - the world doesnt have enough coal
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Singha »

sunday rant.

I think in our parents and grandparents generation lots of the brightest people went to civil engg. but the economy forced them to work govt jobs or
emigrate to massa and work/teach.

now there is no lack of money but people dont want to take up civil engg.

as a result, it shows in the fact for any challenging project like worli sealink, some tunnel , some high bridge some bideshi consulting house
has to be roped in invariably - the desi cos which our father's gen could have led never got started and neither will our gen have any such cos.
take any major showpiece project u will see same suspects like im pei, norman foster, HOK etc. take any remote/harsh infra project and some
swiss or german co will be called in.

in BLR/NCR ever largeish apt complexes rope in HOK.

we simply do not have the ability to design and construct something like asashi kaikyo bridge or kansai airport without TOT/MRCA deals.
the quality of people needed to plan and run such projects has to be worlds best level.

civil engg r&d and education in the country is in a sorry state.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

Sorry re-quoting myself, but plis to bear only....
How 'civilized' democracies deal with the problems of rationing essentials - credit, healthcare and the like among a population with structurally over-high employment for a long time to come and insolvent pension+retirement commitments is yet to be seen. Early days yet to say where this is going. Needless to say, am watching with great interest (and more than a touch of anxiety as well).
well, one shot has been fired by NJ's terminator guv Chris Christie....the response to his proposals and actions will bear close watching to see which way the wind blows in yumrika.
Christie Will Propose New Jersey Pension Rollback (Bloomberg)
That's 'rollback' as in ROLLBACK. SO they're already directly reacing out to the rollback stage of the CRE - Cap-Rollbak-Eliminate formula, seems like.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will unveil legislation that aims to trim a $46 billion pension deficit by scaling back benefits and suspending cost-of-living increases, said a person familiar with details of the proposals.

The measures would roll back a 9 percent increase in pension benefits that was enacted through legislation in 2001, and suspend cost-of-living increases for at least three years, said the person, who declined to be identified because he isn’t authorized to speak ahead of Christie’s announcement next week.

Kevin Roberts, a spokesman for Christie, said the governor will propose pension measures “early next week” and declined to confirm details of the plan.

“It will be a plan to bring solvency to a system that is dangerously on the brink,” Roberts said today in an interview. Any changes Christie will outline are designed to “ensure the system is going to be there in the long-term for those employees that are already here,” Roberts said.

Legislators in 2001 changed the formula used to calculate pensions for new retirees by dividing the number of years worked by 55, rather than 60, which in effect resulted in a 9 percent benefit enhancement. Christie is seeking to reverse that legislation and return to at least 60 for current workers, the person said. Legislators previously rolled back the higher benefits for workers hired after May 22, according to state bond documents.
The compassionate state of Illinois has however, decided to stand by its (some say overgeneous) pension obligations.
Legislators feeling sting of Illinois' deadbeat ways
State Sen. Dave Luechtefeld was in session in Springfield earlier this year when he got a call from the secretary in his district office. She was calling from her cell phone because the district office phones, which are paid for by the state of Illinois, had been disconnected for nonpayment.
...
It's the same story at the district offices of Illinois' elected legislators across the state: Phone, utilities, garbage and rent payments months behind, prompting a monthly flurry of terse late notices and cutoff threats to offices with the state emblem on the doors.

Of course, in a state where teachers are getting laid off, hospitals are struggling and small businesses are failing because the state isn't paying its bills, the office budget plight of a relative handful of politicians isn't going to cause anyone to take to the streets.

...
Lawmakers have often complained that the annual allotment is too small, given the need for clerical workers, professional office space and other significant expenses. However, the current problem of deadbeat district offices isn't about the budgeted amount, but rather about the state's cash flow problems, which stem from a deficit that's roughly 50 percent the size of the state's entire regular operating budget.

"We have 220,000 vouchers sitting in our office waiting to be paid, because we don't have the money to pay them," said Alan Henry of the Illinois comptroller's office, which is responsible for cutting the checks. Those backlogged vouchers at the end of August totaled about $4.5 billion in late bills, which are paid as money becomes available to the state from taxes, fees and other sources.
And no prizes for guessing the biggest source of the drain on state revenues after the fall in tax collections due to the khanomic downturn - public retiree costs and benefits.

Now, don't get me wrong here. I'm not cheering the pension troubles in the TFTA emerged world. I'm all for every human being everywhere (yes, even in TSP) being able to live with dignity till his/her last breath. But what are the odds of that coming about, eh? So, time to watch how the cards stack - what compromises are hammered, what pulls and pressures and lobbying and horse trading are brought to bear.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by vera_k »

Singha wrote:the quality of people needed to plan and run such projects has to be worlds best level.

civil engg r&d and education in the country is in a sorry state.
Education is in a woeful state, and this is not limited to civil engineering. If there is a shortage in particular fields, the logical solution would be to retrain people from other fields to fill the gaps. Private players like the NASSCOM membership do this today for people looking to move into IT, but there should be a government sponsored effort in this respect for all fields, so that retraining is not entirely dependent on the abilities of private employers.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Abhijeet »

People in India have a technically green lifestyle because they are poor, that's all. I don't see any special enlightenment or "oneness with the Earth" that makes them behave in an environmentally friendly manner otherwise. People who can afford to are, if anything, far more careless about their carbon footprint than the average Marin County resident.

Large SUVs cost double what they do in the US (and fuel is 50% more expensive), otherwise everyone here would exchange their Santros and i10s for an SUV in a second.

The trash lying around everywhere in our cities alone should disabuse anyone of the notion that Indians are somehow specially enlightened in this regard.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by JwalaMukhi »

Singha wrote:well the upper middle class in india able to afford such energy usage would be 50 mil at best. in khan *everyone* does that. even the homeless have a ipad and a blog site writing poetry or somethin.

we cannot go the khan way even if we wanted to - the world doesnt have enough coal
Well, SDREs do not have the needs of energy of the TFTA amrikhans. SDREs luckily live in good climatic regions and do not need heating oil simply to survive. Basically, most SDREs live in tropical regions. Also, there is no hubris of transportation mode.
In TFTA amrikhan landscape, an adult is tied to driver's license, else one is persona-non-grata, except in few yuppie cities like Dera Neu wark. Basically, dera amrikhan insists that if you do not own a four wheeler you do not have right to exist. Hopefully, SDREs do not bring it to such a pass where the existence of an individual is acknowledged only by Driver's License.
The infrastructure is built around Driver's license.

So SDREs have a long way to go before they catch up to TFTA amrikhans in energy binge.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by enqyoob »

AoA! The Guvrmand has heard Neshant's demands!! Now EVERYONE can have a Public Penshun Plan and bilk the Hard Working Deserving Taxpayer!! :rotfl:

(Funny thing here: Do a Google Search on "Government plans 401K" and u will c that the same threat has been in ominous warning since October 2008 at least)

(BTW, this is not in the least funny, I know, but it shows the desperation levels rising about the election campaign. It sounds like the proposal is to require some part of 401Ks to be in govt-backed securities to provide a minimal safety net, and of course to sell Treasury Bonds to someone other than the Chinese and Saudi govts, but it is played as GOTUS about to nationalze all assets in 401Ks and convert them into pittance annuities like Social Security).

Just as a pointer on Social Security, the deal there is that ppl pay some 7.5% of the first (80K?) of wages, and employers fork over 13%, and the govt takes this $16K for, say, 40 years (=640,000), and offers to give you back $12000 per year after age 67 until you die, which they expect to occur in about 3 years max with the fine quality of medical care that you can afford on that. IF you live to 67, that is.

Did I hear someone claiming that this was thrusting too much responsibility on the backs of the HardWorking Present Generashun? :rotfl:
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

That isn't a bailout for the working generation. Its just an attempt to enroll them in a ponzi scheme to keep the banking & financing scam industry going while bailout hounds pass on losses to suckers.

Forced confiscation of earnings & enrollment into a ponzi scheme will only serve to increase unemployment as companies shift jobs overseas at a faster rate to escape this or cut back on staff.

Its more debt being passed on to the working generation.

Personally I think its an attempt to stretch out the time line while the debt is printed away using the 'tools' of the federal reserve. Got to have the right 'tools' for ripping off the productive people of society.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by vera_k »

Think people will enjoy this one, given all the doom and gloom about printing money.

Follow the link here, to get the treasury to create currency for you. Shipped to your home by overnight mail for free since the currency only costs a few cents to make on the $. Do your bit to reduce the deficit :mrgreen:
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by enqyoob »

Cool! So if I buy up to my credit card limit, and change the money to get a check so I can pay the credit card bill, I am getting 30-day loans free from the guvrmand.

Trouble is, many places don't take $1 coins.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Mort Walker »

^^^That is precisely what was happening. Now all CC companies treat purchases from the Federal Reserve as "cash advance" from your credit card which is charged a transaction fee + an extra outrageous interest rate that is compounded more frequently.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by vera_k »

It's much better than that :). Drag that cash over to the local IRS office for the advance tax payments.

Miles for nothing: How the government helped frequent fliers make a mint
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Sanjay M »

Friedman talks about America's decline - fingers lack of motivation:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/12/opini ... edman.html
Who will tell the people? China and India have been catching up to America not only via cheap labor and currencies. They are catching us because they now have free markets like we do, education like we do, access to capital and technology like we do, but, most importantly, values like our Greatest Generation had. That is, a willingness to postpone gratification, invest for the future, work harder than the next guy and hold their kids to the highest expectations.
Haha, you know that Indians will lose any motivation they have, as soon as the first hint of success sinks in. I wince everytime I hear some Indian boasting that India is a "superpower". Motivation comes from thinking you're behind, and not from thinking that you're ahead. Tortoise and Hare.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Neshant wrote:
I survive on the basis of my skills, innovation and hard work I bring to the table. Some idiot at the top who could not see he was sitting on the biggest financial bubble in history isn't going to save anyone other than his cronies the shareholder banks.

I have a job inspite of him not because of him. If counterfeiting money was good, we should all do it.
What skills and innovation? Say you were to lose your job tomorrow (as a cost cutting measure) - do you think it would make the slightest difference to how your company operates or how it performs? You have a job (as the CBO research pointed out) simply because you are not too expensive for the company to retain and in part because the govt stimulus program saved about 3 million jobs which would otherwise have been lost had the stimulus not kicked in.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

^^ Skills & innovation that make my company more than I will ever cost the company.

Stimulus is nothing more than robbing the productive segment of the economy. I have a job in spite of that because I am part of the productive economy. Now if I was part of the banking & financing “industry”, yea then I owe my casino job to the productive economy because I produce nothing of value and exist as a parasitic middleman.

CBO is one of many worthless organizations in govt dreaming up bogus numbers for political purposes and making ridiculous claims. Anyone can claim pissing away money saved 40 million jobs. I could claim stimulus spending destroyed 7 million jobs. Who's to say otherwise? Its already been proven that economics is a wishy washy science.

Finally let us not forget that today’s stimulus are tomorrow’s cut backs (or ripoffs if you prefer the printing route). So begin the accounting of jobs lost vs. gained at the time when the bill comes due and people have to be sacked.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Neshant wrote:^^ Skills & innovation that make my company more than I will ever cost the company.

Stimulus is nothing more than robbing the productive segment of the economy. I have a job in spite of that because I am part of the productive economy. Now if I was part of the banking & financing “industry”, yea then I owe my casino job to the productive economy because I produce nothing of value and exist as a parasitic middleman.

CBO is one of many worthless organizations in govt dreaming up bogus numbers for political purposes and making ridiculous claims. Anyone can claim pissing away money saved 40 million jobs. I could claim stimulus spending destroyed 7 million jobs. Who's to say otherwise? Its already been proven that economics is a wishy washy science.

Finally let us not forget that today’s stimulus are tomorrow’s cut backs (or ripoffs if you prefer the printing route). So begin the accounting of jobs lost vs. gained at the time when the bill comes due and people have to be sacked.
Sure, if you price yourself low enough anything a company produces will make it profitable enough to retain you, until the going gets really bad. So it has nothing to do with your 'skills or innovation' - only price signals matter. I'm sure banking and finance industry produce something of 'value' since there seems to be a high demand for their services which seems to be met profitably (your definition of productivity). Not all productive services have to be a tangible product :)

Hey come on you are claiming that you are the productive part of the economy (because you are fulfilling a societal need). So does the CBO (you may not need what it produces, others do).

If today's stimulus is tomorrow's cutback - then on an average you have evened out haven't you? So then why complain? If you have skills to retain your job during the 'bad' stimulus phase, you should be able to retain it during the 'good' cutback phase.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

I price myself appropriately and produce for the company far more than I get. Now if they had someone more productive then me, they would get rid of me. That is their right since its their money. As for price signals, no matter what you pay a donkey, you still have a donkey.

If Bernanke was in the private sector doing a real job... with his performance... he would have been canned a long time ago.

Except for a small utility role, I don't believe banking produces much of value. Quite the opposite, its steals far, far more than it produces in value. I suggest CBO folks be replaced by tarot card readers and spin doctors. They are less expensive and can produce similar reports in the nick of time for mid-term elections.

Today's stimulus are tommorrow's cutbacks twice over if the stimulus destroys more than it creates to begin with. Picking winners and losers by anyone other than who's paying for the service/employee is bad. Especially so when a clueless guy heading the federal reserve is doing the picking.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Neshant wrote:I price myself appropriately and produce for the company far more than I get. Now if they had someone more productive then me, they would get rid of me. That is their right since its their money. As for price signals, no matter what you pay a donkey, you still have a donkey.

If Bernanke was in the private sector, with his performance, he would have been canned a long time ago.

Except for a small utility role, I don't believe banking produces much of value. Quite the opposite, its steals far, far more than it produces in value. I suggest CBO folks be replaced by tarot card readers and spin doctors. They are less expensive and can produce similar reports in the nick of time for mid-term elections.

Today's stimulus are tommorrow's cutbacks twice over if the stimulus destroyes more than it creates to begin with. Picking winners and losers is bad especially when a clueless guy heading the federal reserve is doing the picking.
Absolutely - but even donkeys have their uses. It must be a smart donkey which manages to convince others that it deserves to be paid more than it is worth :)

Re 'value' of Banks - we are not talking about your beliefs are we? :) we are talking society 'needing' a service that is being profitably provided by the banks.

Similarly, we seem to be glibly talking about stimulus (and banks) destroying 'value' :) How are we measuring this 'value'? We need a quantitative measure, otherwise everything is wishy-washy isn't it? :) Usually these are measured through aggregate real GDP? 'real' GDP accounts for inflation, so would you agree that if GDP continues to grow - more is being created than is destroyed? Otherwise do you have a measure which we could use to judge the veracity of your statements?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Arya Sumantra »

arnab wrote:Absolutely - but even donkeys have their uses. It must be a smart donkey which manages to convince others that it deserves to be paid more than it is worth :)
Self-serving and self-rewarding smartness is of no use to the organization/society.
arnab wrote:Re 'value' of Banks - we are not talking about your beliefs are we? :) we are talking society 'needing' a service that is being profitably provided by the banks.
Not a challenging task in an oligopoly like situation. With virtually evey kind of transaction involving hefty and rip-off service charges it's surprising they wouldn't be profitable. But a satisfactory service it is not. It is overcharging and the customer is mute. What to do only the bigger ones are saved as Too Big to Fail?
arnab wrote: 'real' GDP accounts for inflation, so would you agree that if GDP continues to grow - more is being created than is destroyed? Otherwise do you have a measure which we could use to judge the veracity of your statements?
But the growth is artificially induced while it is sapping real money. 'real' GDP does not deduct artificially induced growth. But for sure it is like pulling a kite to keep it up in an windless environment. It saps you of finite strength but if the wind never comes it is all waste. If the wind comes then it was all worth it.

Whether the stimulus is right or wrong will depend on recovery-if it comes(in a short time). If recovery is back there all stimulus proponents will jump over each other to claim the credit and if it doesn't come back for long time then there will be scathing criticism of "waste" of stimulus money in times of austerity and blame will be placed on a group too large to be pin-pointed and specific decision-makers will be spared.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

Interesting quote from Chairman of the Bank of Canada (the Canadian equivalent of the US Federal Reserve) :

"Faith is required but not in some barbarous relic like gold or utopian global central bank. Rather countries must restore their faith in the adjustment process under the current international monetary system."

"The question is whether to change the system or to change policies to be consistent with the current system. There's no miracle cure,"said Carney.

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/1009 ... tious.html

Reading between the lines, this guy is dropping hints about what conversations are taking place behind the scenes. Especially the part about a utopian global central bank which ties in nicely with recent attempt to get China onboard at the IMF and SDRs by increasing its voting share. Keep your eyes peeled on the next G-20 meeting in South Korea - its going to be an important one methinks.

Also, what adjustment is he talking about :?: Every solution in keynesian economics comes down to cranking up the printing press so I can only conclude he means a devaluation of the currency against the yuan.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Tanaji »

Meanwhile things are back to normal for one section at least: the fat cats:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11279763
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by enqyoob »

Neshant wrote:I price myself appropriately and produce for the company far more than I get. Now if they had someone more productive then me, they would get rid of me. That is their right since its their money. As for price signals, no matter what you pay a donkey, you still have a donkey.

If Bernanke was in the private sector doing a real job... with his performance... he would have been canned a long time ago.

Except for a small utility role, I don't believe banking produces much of value. Quite the opposite, its steals far, far more than it produces in value. I suggest CBO folks be replaced by tarot card readers and spin doctors. They are less expensive and can produce similar reports in the nick of time for mid-term elections.

Today's stimulus are tommorrow's cutbacks twice over if the stimulus destroys more than it creates to begin with. Picking winners and losers by anyone other than who's paying for the service/employee is bad. Especially so when a clueless guy heading the federal reserve is doing the picking.

Its so wonderful to see these thoughtful statements.
The Right Man for the Job
When President Bush introduced Bernanke to the world, he stated that "Ben Bernanke is the right man to build on the record Alan Greenspan has established." Bernanke's credentials include:

Educational Background
Bernanke earned an impressive set of academic credentials, including a Ph.D. in economics from Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1979, and Bachelor of Arts in economics from Harvard in 1975, graduating summa cum laude. His academic prowess was apparent even in high school, where his SAT score of 1590 set a state record.

Professor Bernanke
Bernanke was also a professor of economic and public affairs at Princeton University from 1985-2002, where he chaired the economics department from 1996 to 2002. Prior to his arrival at Princeton, he was associate professor of economics from 1983 to 1985 at Stanford University and an assistant professor from 1973 to 1983. His long teaching career also includes serving as a visiting professor of economics at New York University in 1993 and at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1989 to 1990.


Last I checked, the Massachussssettttssss Institute of Technology, Harvard, Stanford and Princeton were PRIVATE SECTOR organizations run by PRIVATE SECTOR people. NOW we know who is running us into the ground.

AllahoAkbar! We need true Iranian Shariah Bankers to run the US System. Anyway they have brought in the system of zero interest on deposits!
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by praksam »

Great News For Housing Market! Time Magazine Publishes Cover Story Saying You Should Never Buy A House Again

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/great-ne ... z0zQbg64VY
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by SwamyG »

Rich Americans Save Tax Cuts Instead of Spending, Moody's Says
The Moody’s research covering couples earning more than $210,000 found that spending by the wealthy is more likely to be influenced by the ups and downs of the stock market than changes in income-tax rates.
Well, it is from Moody's so we ought to take it with a pinch of salt. Anywayz, another dent on the trickle-down theory?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by SwamyG »

Abhijeet wrote:People in India have a technically green lifestyle because they are poor, that's all. I don't see any special enlightenment or "oneness with the Earth" that makes them behave in an environmentally friendly manner otherwise. People who can afford to are, if anything, far more careless about their carbon footprint than the average Marin County resident.
That is because both poverty and prosperity are grounds for innovation. Back in the days, most of the groceries were bundled in old newspapers and tied with jute threads, we carried cloth bags to buy vegetables, and used bicycles to roam around, moms and grandmoms trades old clothes for ever-silver utensils, boys traded Sports-star magazines for few naya paise to buy "cork" balls to play cricket ityadi. We will become green, when we ape the West. Out here now almost all the grocery stores sell jute/cloth bags for being "green".
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

Last I checked, the Massachussssettttssss Institute of Technology, Harvard, Stanford and Princeton were PRIVATE SECTOR organizations run by PRIVATE SECTOR people. NOW we know who is running us into the ground
MIT, Harvard or Princeton was not sitting in the federal reserve chair, he was. Regardless of where he came from, the guy practically slept his way into the biggest economic bubble of all time. In fact there are video clips (a bunch of them) with him in 2006 and 2007 even in early 2008 claiming it was a small issue.

Anyone caught sleeping on the job like that in the (productive) private sector would be given the boot for sure.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by SwamyG »

On my small-time quest to an unanswered question on retraining & re-education for newer (new age?) jobs, I came across this blog post: http://blog.theentrepreneurschool.com/s ... rseas-2025
On the other hand, if the government does try to bring jobs back to the USA, this is the way that decision will play out:

1. USA companies that are given incentive to produce in the USA will become less competitive.
2. Foreign companies that are not required (or given incentives) to produce in the USA will flood the USA market with the lower cost goods.
3. The USA will combat against these foreign goods though the use of quotas to limit/exclude foreign goods or through the use of a duty (tax) that makes the price of the good equal or more than the USA-produced good.
4. Consumers will suffer the consequences as prices increase due to the higher cost of USA-produced goods.
5. The new Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection will be inundated by angry consumers who now have their manufacturing jobs back, but can’t afford what they want to purchase because it’s too expensive.

Even though it is extremely painful to lose labor-intensive jobs, it’s a natural function of the global economy. If this is reversed because politicians make it sound nice to keep jobs in the USA, everyone will suffer.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by enqyoob »

Neshant: Bernanke has made sure the Fed govt is not broke, it has done well for itself. Govt spending is way up, and govt employees are presiding over the distribution of literally trillions of dollars with huge leeway in who they give those dollars to. This is Power. So, by corporate promotion criteria, he has done great, and in the "private sector", such a CEO would be given a huge bonus by the Board. Which is precisely what ails America and other such places, and it's destroying India too, except people are too busy rising in the bubble and watching the smoke & mirrors, to notice.

If he was a good public servant (I mean, someone who works 40 years in the same place and earns one of those pensions that you diss so obnoxiously), he would have thought ahead a few years. But he expected to be out at the end of 2008, and acted accordingly. It must have been a big shock to be asked to stay on by the new President.

This is the trouble - you are obviously very angry to the point of being scarily irrational, but with absolutely no sense of who you SHOULD be angry against, or why - or who would do better. If I flip back through this thread, I will find you singing the praises of the racist ultra-extremist KKK-Hitler-Jugend yahoos of the Tea Party, who would kick you out or lynch you (and me) first thing if they were allowed to do so, and of the Austrian Gang (likewise), and now finally you come out singing the praises of Private Sector Corporations (like Goldman Sachs? Or Lehman Bros? Or GM?)

Far too many American corporations are headed by fly-by-nite operators. Like Bernanke. Instead of supporting innovation and doing the really difficult things that made for productivity and advancements in the past, these people try to create the IMPRESSION of activity by doing M&A and doing all sorts of financial gimmicks. THIS is the real problem.

Very hard to keep a straight face while typing responses on this thread. :mrgreen:
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Arya Sumantra wrote:
Self-serving and self-rewarding smartness is of no use to the organization/society.

Not a challenging task in an oligopoly like situation. With virtually evey kind of transaction involving hefty and rip-off service charges it's surprising they wouldn't be profitable. But a satisfactory service it is not. It is overcharging and the customer is mute. What to do only the bigger ones are saved as Too Big to Fail?


But the growth is artificially induced while it is sapping real money. 'real' GDP does not deduct artificially induced growth. But for sure it is like pulling a kite to keep it up in an windless environment. It saps you of finite strength but if the wind never comes it is all waste. If the wind comes then it was all worth it.
Sir but it is a matter of perspective isn't it whether the fed's smartness was 'self-serving' or whether it was for a broader segment of society. You have to provide us with an objective measure. Same for 'artificially induced growth' - Look at how much the government sector contributes to India's growth for instance? Or the fact that the US govt is the largest purchaser of defence goods and services from the US military industrial complex (even in normal times). Why wouldn't you label such expenses as 'artificial growth' ? but would call a policy option of keeping the economy moving while the pvt sector licks its wounds as an 'artificial real money sapping growth'?

Regarding the oligopolistic banks ripping me off - I could make the same case for my plumber who sends me a $200 bill for a job that takes him less than 15 minutes. How come nobody points a finger at him? Or the disparity in cost of health services in the US? These must be close to 'perfectly competitive markets' or are they?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Sanjay M »

Image
arnab
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial ... surowiecki


When President Obama unveiled an array of new tax-cut and spending proposals last week, one word was noticeably missing from his speeches: “stimulus.” Republicans, meanwhile, energetically set about decrying the plan as “more of the same failed ‘stimulus’ ”
But, by any reasonable measure, the $800-billion stimulus package that Congress passed in the winter of 2009 was a clear, if limited, success. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that it reduced unemployment by somewhere between 0.8 and 1.7 per cent in recent months.


Politically, however, none of this has made any difference. Polls show that a sizable majority of voters think that the stimulus either did nothing to help or actively hurt the economy, and most people say that they’re opposed to a new stimulus plan
The hostility has numerous sources. Many voters conflate the stimulus bill with the highly unpopular bailouts of the banking sector and the auto industry; Republicans have done a good job of encouraging such misconceptions
But the most interesting aspect of the stimulus’s image problems concern its design and implementation. Paradoxically, the very things that made the stimulus more effective economically may have made it less popular politically.
a key part of the stimulus was the billions of dollars that went to state governments. This was crucial in helping the states avoid layoffs and spending cuts, but politically it didn’t get much notice, because it was the dog that didn’t bark—saving jobs just isn’t as conspicuous as creating them. Extending unemployment benefits was also an excellent use of stimulus funds, since that money tends to get spent immediately. But unless you were unemployed this wasn’t something you’d pay attention to.
The stimulus was also backloaded, so that only a third was spent in the first year. This reduced waste, since there was more time to vet projects, and insured that money would keep flowing into 2010, lessening the risk of a double-dip recession. But it also made the stimulus less potent in 2009, when the economy was in dire straits, leaving voters with the impression that the plan wasn’t working.
More subtly, while the plan may end up having a transformative impact on things like the clean-energy industry, broadband access, and the national power grid, it’s hard for voters to find concrete visual evidence of what the stimulus has done (those occasional road signs telling us our tax dollars are at work notwithstanding). That’s a sharp contrast with the New Deal legacy of new highways, massive dams, and rural electrification. Dramatic, high-profile deeds have a profound effect on people’s opinions, so, in the absence of another Hoover Dam or Golden Gate Bridge, it’s not surprising that the voter’s view is: “We spent $800 billion and all I got was this lousy T-shirt.”
It’s a harsh lesson: when Rome is burning, trying to put out the fire may cost you more than just sitting by and fiddling.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

arnab wrote:

The hostility has numerous sources. Many voters conflate the stimulus bill with the highly unpopular bailouts of the banking sector and the auto industry; Republicans have done a good job of encouraging such misconceptions
And of course do remember the 'unpopular' bank (TARP) bailouts and auto industry bailouts were initiated during the days of the Bush presidency :)
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

enqyoob wrote:Neshant: Bernanke has made sure the Fed govt is not broke, it has done well for ......
... shareholding banks of the federal reserve. Amen.

Fed is not broke? How would the fed go broke anyway?
enqyoob wrote:It must have been a big shock to be asked to stay on by the new President.
You must be naive if you belive that.
enqyoob wrote:This is the trouble - you are obviously very angry to the point of being scarily irrational, but with absolutely no sense of who you SHOULD be angry against, or why - or who would do better. I will find you singing the praises of the racist ultra-extremist KKK-Hitler-Jugend yahoos of the Tea Party, who would kick you out or
Self-serving BS. I'm afaid all the snake oil salesmenship like the one you are trying to sell above isn't working. People are catching on that they are being ripped off. That's what scammers are in a panic about. More will catch on once they get the bill.

Its important scams be pointed out and that is what I intend to do diligently.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

arnab wrote: Sir but it is a matter of perspective isn't it whether the fed's smartness was 'self-serving' or whether it was for a broader segment of society. You have to provide us with an objective measure.
A tale can be spun to justify any ripoff under the keynesian economic system as being in the interest of the boarder segment of society. Probably with 10 trillion was handed out to banking crooks and the economy fell even further down the hole, it would be deemed as being in the interest of the broader segment of society.

The con artistry of keynesian economics is to rip a person off and tell him it was in his interest. The good news is the people are catching onto this scam.
arnab wrote:Regarding the oligopolistic banks ripping me off - I could make the same case for my plumber who sends me a $200 bill for a job that takes him less than 15 minutes. How come nobody points a finger at him?
You are free to hire a plumber costing less. Sadly I'm not free to not pay for the the gambling losses of banking crooks. Secondly the plumber has a productive role in society. Scamming banks, beyond a marginal utility role, have little productive value. But they sure talk up a storm of BS when it comes to justifying their parasitic existance.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

The intelligent and articulate Sri John Hussman's Sept 6 commentary:
The Recognition Window:A note on quantitative easing
One of the things I'm increasingly dismayed to learn is that no matter how much detail, data, and qualification I might include in these commentaries, my conclusions will often be summed up by writers or bloggers in a single sentence that often bears no relation to my point. For instance, my view that quantitative easing will trigger a "jump depreciation" in the dollar has evidently placed me among analysts warning of hyperinflation and Treasury default (a club whose card is nowhere in my wallet).

To clarify once again - I emphatically do not anticipate inflationary pressures until the second half of this decade. As I've repeatedly emphasized, the primary driver of inflation - historically and across countries - has been growth in government spending for purposes that do not expand the productive capacity of the economy.
Well, if only Hussman would expand on what he means by 'productive economy' only...."sigh"
Quantitative easing does not pressure the dollar by fueling inflation. It has a much more subtle effect (but one that can be expected to be amplified if fiscal policy is long-run inflationary as it is at present).

Normally, equilibrium in capital flows between countries is achieved through changes in interest rates.
{As it did in the EU where the exchange rate adjustment signal and tool was inapplicable.}

As a result, countries with greater capital needs or higher long-run inflation tendencies also have higher interest rates.
{India fits the bill to a tee}
If interest rates can adjust, exchange rates don't have to.

But notice what quantitative easing does: by sitting on long-term bond yields (and creating a negative real interest rate differential versus other countries), quantitative easing prevents bond prices from acting as an adjustment factor, and forces the burden of adjustment on the exchange rate.
Aha. But nobody wants a strong currency on the external account just now. Nobody. How will that play out, eh?
While some observers have noted that the value of the Japanese yen did not deteriorate dramatically over the full course of quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan - from its beginning until it was finally wound down - this argument misses the point. The exchange rate depreciation occurs as a jump adjustment in order to set up a subsequent appreciation over time. That gradual appreciation is needed to offset the lost interest difference caused by the policy of zero interest rates.
Oh, read it all. Only.
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