People's Republic of China Nov 22, 2009

[TonyMontana]

Of course China is doing better at this exam, but wait till graduation day!

LOL. Had a friend say that to me once as well back in Uni. He came second.

[Venkarl]

I dare say this is the Chinese strategy regarding India as well. Now you have to ask yourself a honest question. Who's doing better in this exam?

An honest answer is India is going steady and consistent taking blows...China is rampant hitting everyone on head and swallowing as much as it can.

LOL. Had a friend say that to me once as well back in Uni. He came second.

I too had a friend say that to me as well back in Uni. He came first and broke all records of previous uni toppers.

[Sudip]

I am not sure if this has been discussed before. Excuse me if it has been. However, to compare the cultural and people-to-people impact of the two asian giants, I looked up the number of Chinatowns throughout the world and the number of little indias throughout the world.

The chinatowns number 31 countries while the little indias number 18 :-(

[TonyMontana]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... le1754615/


Communist Chinese elders promote free speech in open letter

Let's see how this works out.

[Venkarl]

It'll flop.

[shiv]

As Johann said I believe that China's aggressive policies might reflect the interests of the PLA factions of the CPC who are jostling for influence. But China is a huge country. The CPC politburo is also a large body and China has undergone several changes over the decades.

What Mao did in the cultural revolution was to "reset" the population of China like a reset button that sets all values in the memory of an electronic device to zero. He removed (as far was we can tell from the outside) the economic and intellectual elite and "equalized" all Chinese (or at least most Chinese). He also militarized the population so that China ended up having the largest army in the world but with extremely low tech (compared to the west, not India). He created what appeared (to an outsider such as myself) to be automatons so that the average "Chinese" to a person like me in college was a robot working for the CPC carrying a red book.

Even when BRF came online over a decade ago we were seeing articles about just how low tech the Chinese armed forces were. They had 3000 aircraft for example but most were a Chinese copy or modification of MiG-19s. I recall reading (linked off BRF) an American article that described how the PLAAF was so huge that they did not have the funds for fuel to allow pilots to fly to as many sorties as they should. I recall the mention of double figure flying hours a year and the story that Chinese pilots did mock drills on wooden cockpit mock-ups because of lack of fuel to fly aircraft. This appeared to be the story (made up or real?) up to the mid 1980s at least. Even as the Chinese tech sector improved these stories did not improve because China was seen as risking the lives of people in a manner that would be questioned in other societies. The number of J-10 crashes as prototypes were cited as an example of China sending up half baked aircraft for test flights. It was all in keeping with the reputation of cruelty and loss of all civilization that China gathered during the late Mao and early post-Mao years.

Of course the PLA, PLAAF and PLAN ranks were so swollen that the PLA was allowed to set up its own industrial businesses as China opened up so that the Armed forces could make money on their own. That led to the era of ridicule of the PLA as a large business enterprise consisting of factory workers rather than soldiers. In this way the Pakistan army has done exactly what the PLA did. But as China's economy did well the PLA was pulled out of business and they were given a good financial deal in return. So they have, to my knowledge, at least in name, returned to the original business of being soldiers. But this has happened only in the last 10-15 years or so IIRC. hat means that many junior and mid rankers in the PLA may still have memories of how it is for the PLA to run its own business, make its own money. For anyone who profited from embezzlement and profiteering in the PLA the loss of financial control to civilians might be seen with resentment. Or maybe there was no loss of control. I have no idea whatsoever.

The other thing that has happened in China is the reduction of uniformity. The "societal resetting" of the cultural revolution has now been replaced by the unevenness that is more akin to a capitalist nation. Some people are more wealthy than others. If you place 1.4 billion Chinese in a graph representing wealth I guess you will get a bell curve rather than a flat line. Financial disparity is the bane of a classic communist society but is seen as normal in other societies. It is that financial disparity that is reported in the media as one cause of internal stress in Chinese society. It appears to me that Chinese society is now mimicking Pakistani society in which second generation wealthy people think that everyone in China is wealthy and developed (just like RAPE Pakis) and are unable to see disparity in wealth and opportunity either because it is carefully hidden, or just ignored by ignorance (like in Pakistan). The similarity with Pakistan is an inability and unwillingness to admit the existence of social problems extending to the highest levels of government. So it appears that some Chinese, like RAPE Pakis with 10,000 times more power and wealth are now brash and confident want want to rule the globe. But we have no real information of those Chinese who do not belong to this category. The bamboo curtain still exists although it has gone out of fashion with the American propaganda apparatus that popularized it.

I recall the mid-1990s - as a relative newbie on the net - I used to visit sites like PakDef and CenturyChina. Of course we had BRFites visiting PakDef and then coming and shedding tears on here about Pakistan's high technology and victories. But what struck me in those days about the Chinese fora was a the plain racism and contempt for Indians by the "New confident Chinese" - at least those who wrote in English. The Indian was a "curry breath" and the joke going around in those days was the computer literate Indian and his "Floppy Dik".

Panic articles about China's rise have really started appearing after the economic meltdown of the west. As I have reminisced above - Indians (that includes me) usually follow the anglophone press and we swallow what comes from the US. We used "bamboo curtain" as long as it is popular with the West and we say "China threat" when China becomes a threat to the West. When has China been any less of a threat to India in the last 60 years?

[Dhiman]

I don't know!, but what I can tell you for sure is that "normal" entities don't usually think in terms of "nice vs. bad", or "victim vs. aggressor", or "fear vs. brave" etc.

Like you question my definition of "nice", I question your definition of "normal".

Whew!, So here is the story: 1) you didn't offer a definition of "nice", 2) I also didn't question your term "nice", 3) you questioned the use of your own term "nice". What I did was to 4) call out your entire speculation regarding your term "nice" as "farting" in the hope that you will fart less in your posts, but obviously that's not working.

Please go back and read again. No course on "written comprehension" or "effective communication" in your college curriculum, I assume?

[TonyMontana]

Whew!, So here is the story: 1) you didn't offer a definition of "nice", 2) I also didn't question your term "nice", 3) you questioned the use of your own term "nice". What I did was to 4) call out your entire speculation regarding your term "nice" as "farting" in the hope that you will fart less in your posts, but obviously that's not working.

Please go back and read again. No course on "written comprehension" or "effective communication" in your college curriculum, I assume?

The truth is, I didn't really care to read or respond to that particular post of yours. Maybe I shouldn't replied that one liner. Let's move on.

[TonyMontana]

Mao ... cultural revolution ... militarized the population ... red book ...
... reduction of uniformity ...cultural revolution ...

Shiv, you seems to mention Mao, cultural revolution, red books a lot. I find it counter-productive to discuss China today through the lens of that period. Maybe you were unaware, but there is a period of reconciliation after the Cultural revolution in China. My ancestral family home, which was nationalised was given back to us and compensation (small by any standard) were offered. It is in my opinion that period in our history does not reflect current Chinese thinking or action at all. You might as well be discussing things we did in the Qing Dynasty.

Thoughts?

[TonyMontana]

Thanks! I went to a Chinese restaurant today and saw smiling Buddha prominently displayed. Does Smiling/Happy Buddha occupy a special place in Chinese culture?

Fat Buddha is a symbol of "plentifulness". Used to "attract" money like those waving cats in Japanese restaurants. Used to bring money and good luck to the restaurant. Pretty funny considering what Buddha actually taught.

[shiv]

Shiv, you seems to mention Mao, cultural revolution, red books a lot. I find it counter-productive to discuss China today through the lens of that period. Maybe you were unaware, but there is a period of reconciliation after the Cultural revolution in China. My ancestral family home, which was nationalised was given back to us and compensation (small by any standard) were offered. It is in my opinion that period in our history does not reflect current Chinese thinking or action at all. You might as well be discussing things we did in the Qing Dynasty.

Thoughts?

Things that happen in the past have a way of having effects at some time in the future. Anything that I say on here about what Mao did in China are of course personal impressions gained by a (then young) man who got most of his inputs from the English press of the west either directly or indirectly via the Indian media.

But what is true for me is probably true of tens, if not hundreds of millions of Indians.

So the China of the Mao era has resulted in two types of fallout in 2010

1) The first is in the way China is viewed by others. As a closed land of unspeakable cruelty, censorship and restrictions. China has been so inward looking that little has been done to change this impression. I am not sure if China is now waging an unsuccessful battle to fight negative press or whether China is really going around like an aggressive boor. Either way the negative press that China got in the 1950s and 60s has not gone away. The main importance of this is how others view China. It matters little if the Chinese are not bothered about what others think. It is still true that 4 out of 5 people in this world are non Chinese and what they think will dictate their personal preferences.

2) The second "fallout" of the Mao era is what really happened in China. I would dispute the idea that it has all disappeared now. Apart from wealth, confidence and greater visibility China today is a product of coercive Maoist and post-Mao policies. This has been known and observed all along even if the new China seems totally different to young Chinese. I will try and explain that.

Communist China was (and is) seen as a land of coercion. Wealthy and rising China today is a product of coercion. Just forget China for a minute and look at India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Economic expansion can improve the lives of people only if that expansion outpaces with an increase in population. Just keeping pace with an increasing population is not enough. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have not used coercion to reduce the growth of their population. India and later Bangladesh have gone for incentives, education and birth spacing (which China now wants to try). Pakistan has done next to nothing.

A a result - India population growth has slowed down and its economic growth has inched ahead. Bangladesh's population growth too is slowing - but less than India's. The economic status of Bangladesh is is reflected in that fact. Pakistan of course is doing next to nothing. It's population growth rate has not been slowed as much as it should be. Pakistan's population is exploding and its economy is not keeping pace, despite friends.

China "did well" to rapidly cut the rate of growth of its population. If not China would have had maybe 1.8 billion today. But that was done by coercion. However it has had the positive effect of allowing economic growth to more easily outpace population growth leading to a wealthier China today. So the idea that Mao era policies have no relevance today is not true. And those Mao era policies are still in place - and that includes restriction on travel and migration. One can argue that all these things were "good" for China and "will be removed" soon. But they are still there. Maoist era coercive policies are still there.

This leads to two further conclusions:
1) Those Chinese who are happy and contented today and happy and contented because of those coercive policies and are likely to retrospectively support such coercive means ("The end justifies the means")
2) All populations have dissidents and opponents of such policies who are likely to have been badly affected by such coercive policies (eg death of wife from forced abortion). China does not allow those voices to be heard. They are there somewhere in China but in public it is claimed that all is well. All cannot be 100 % well and a society that is unwilling to show its warts is seen as a society that is hiding a lot of rubbish. Nobody outside China knows the truth for sure. It suits the CPC to hide certain things about its own people and use the support of happy and contented Chinese to claim that all is well. But to me that is a danger sign - a sign that one must view the Chinese government with deep suspicion. When only the positives are shown and the negatives are hidden - the society has a problem. When those who admit this are suppressed - warning bells must ring for those who feel different. Wars are revolutions are made out of things like this.

[TonyMontana]

1) The first is in the way China is viewed by others. As a closed land of unspeakable cruelty, censorship and restrictions. China has been so inward looking that little has been done to change this impression. I am not sure if China is now waging an unsuccessful battle to fight negative press or whether China is really going around like an aggressive boor. Either way the negative press that China got in the 1950s and 60s has not gone away. The main importance of this is how others view China. It matters little if the Chinese are not bothered about what other think. it is still true that 4 out of 5 people in tis world are non Chinese and what they think will dictate their personal preferences.

What can a Lion do to make a deer view him favorably? China by the nature of her size, history and her very existence means that neighbouring countries will always view her negatively. What can the England cricket team do to make you wear their colours?

People can think what they like. That is their prerogative.

2) The second "fallout" of the Mao era is what really happened in China. I would dispute the idea that it has all disappeared now. Apart from wealth, confidence and greater visibility China today is a product of coercive Maoist and post-Mao policies. This has been known and observed all along even if the new China seems totally different to young Chinese. I will try and explain that.

Sure, there are some residual effects. No arguments there. He is the founding Emperor of the current Dynasty. But the analogy I draw here is that he's more Abe Lincoln, then George W Bush in terms of relevence in Chinese politics today.

This leads to two further conclusions:
1) Those Chinese who are happy and contented today and happy and contented because of those coercive policies and are likely to retrospectively support such coercive means ("The end justifies the means")

Sure. But Mao didn't start that. That's a historical Chinese characteristic. The only thing that he did to change the nature of "The Chinese", is that he made most of us Atheists. But that too is slowly changing. You give him to much credit if you think he somehow "changed Chinese forever". We've seen plenty of Maos in our time.

2) All populations have dissidents and opponents of such policies who are likely to have been badly affected by such coercive policies (eg death of wife from forced abortion). China does not allow those voices to be heard. They are there somewhere in China but in public it is claimed that all is well. All cannot be 100 % well and a society that is unwilling to show its warts is seen as a society that is hiding a lot of rubbish. Nobody outside China knows the truth for sure. It suits the CPC to hide certain things about its own people and sue the support of happy and contented Chinese to claim that all is well. But to me that i a danger sign - a sign that one must view the Chinese government with deep suspicion. When only the positives are shown and the negatives are hidden - the society has a problem. When those who admit this are suppressed - warning bells must ring for those who feel different. Wars are revolutions are made out of things like this.

I agree. I wish Wen the best of luck in his reforms. But I don't attribute this to Mao. These are just characterstics of any Chinese Empire.

At the end of the day, how you view China is up to you. You can even think we have a red book and a picture of Mao in our house if you want. I'm just pointing out that in my opinion, that period of time has no immediate effect on Chinese actions.

[shyam]

Some Chinese working harder...
Let me make this statement here, "Civilizationally, China IS India's backyard."

Oh snap! This proves it doesn't it? All Chinese worship Indian Gods. You must be so proud.

Nope. It makes me pity Chinese.

Look at what is happening to average Chinese
- They copied communism without understanding what that is.
- Now they pride about their capitalism, and I would say that they have not understood what is driving that. Once the great crash happens, many will open their eyes.
- Blindly modernising Chinese don't understand that modernism has its root in colonialism. It needs somebody to be exploited - may be rural Chinese, or may try to exploit Africans.
- Proud atheists have forgotten that they have a great civilizational and cutural roots, and they really don't have to copy anything from west. These days, Chinese copy even names from westerners.

I can only pity at what is happening to them.

I would recommend you to go back to your roots, be it Confusianism, Taoism, or Buddhism. That will do more good to China and Chinese than any new strategic thing they are trying to do.

[Venkarl]

...

I would recommend you to go back to your roots, be it Confusianism, Taoism, or Buddhism. That will do more good to China and Chinese than any new strategic thing they are trying to do.

Apart from Tang, Yuan and Ming dynasties...it was Manchu's Qing dynasty that ruled vastest and farthest areas of China..and they followed Confucianism...so why not Confucianism? Anyways..the current Beijing leadership thinks that their version of communism can achieve what Qing folks could do...interestingly starting from Zhou to Qing none of the Chinese dynasties ever touched Arunachal Pradesh..and now PRC makes fuss about Tawang

[Hari Seldon]

One of the few places that Mao showed any real smarts was in refusing to confront both superpowers at once.

...

The great losers in global struggles are people who take on too many enemies at once.

Napoleon went to war with both Russia and Britain, and despite his brilliance, they ground him down, and then used the spare capacity they developed to fight him to establish world-spanning empires.

Germany in both world wars chose to initiate two-front wars, and lost both (something Bismarck always avoided). So did Japan. In any case they helped create the new super powers

...

Even Mao, with all of his megalomania and aspirations for world revolution didn't think the PRC could make it far with Hoxha's Albania (a place that rivaled Kim Jong Il's DPRK in looniness and misery) as its sole reliable partner. Deng's approach was opening up to the world, avoiding isolation and making money from the global economy even while fighting Soviet encirclement. Both disliked getting in to confrontations without support of other powers, preferably a coalition, whether Socialist or Capitalist.

If the CPC continues on the current path of getting in to competitions and confrontations with so many of its neighbours at the same time it WILL face the same fate. India, Japan, the United States and ASEAN represent far more wealth, manpower and technology than the PRC will ever muster, even with the help of rogue regimes like North Korea and Pakistan to distract the US, Japan and India. In fact they're like to help turn India in to a greater power as in previous cases.

Earlier generations of CPC leadership had first hand experience fighting the KMT, the Japanese, and the Americans (both Mao and the Americans were unprepared for each other's ferocity; there's a reason the Korean war was not repeated). This was the problem with the American Neo-Conservatives as well although they were civilians. Power without a sense of its limits and costs is a dangerous thing.

Splendid post.

However, I can't but help notice this extrapolation of pre n-weapon events to post n-threshold realities. IMHO, crossing of the n-threshold represents a credible structural break. After that, extrapolating the past into the future doesn't worl so well anymore.

Sure, Hitler got too uppity and challenged too many too soon and all but in today's world, one doesn't have to make war at all. All out war between n-capable adversaries is not a likely scenario under any circumstances, IMHO. EVerything's changed and maybe we're still stuck in the old paradigm of analysis, perhaps?

[shiv]

China by the nature of her size, history and her very existence means that neighbouring countries will always view her negatively.

Good god nooooooo! Whose musharraf did you pull that one from? I don't know about Japan, Korea and Vietnam, - but China has never been viewed that way by most nations on earth!! That is the most Paki statement I have heard from you. Pakistan builds up aggression based on a grievance that the world hates them because they are Muslims. You are saying the world fears China because of her existence? That is rubbish. China had one of the most admired civilizations on earth and most has certainly not been feared. The only people who gain from building up such a feeling is the CCP - psyching up all Chinese to say they are hated so that they can all get angry the minute any nation is accused of being "against Chinese". Wow. Imagine India sitting next to two nations whose people are paranoid that they think everyone hates them Flippin heck!!

Sure. But Mao didn't start that. That's a historical Chinese characteristic. The only thing that he did to change the nature of "The Chinese", is that he made most of us Atheists. But that too is slowly changing. You give him to much credit if you think he somehow "changed Chinese forever". We've seen plenty of Maos in our time.

No he did not change Chinese forever, He has changed them for the short term. All our lifetimes are short term. In the long term we are all dead.

[Varoon Shekhar]

Shyam, nice one. No scientific data here( me making a scientific post!) but I've read that Buddhism was the larger popular religion/ethic out of the 3, Buddhism, Confucianism and Taoism. Confucianism was more of a ruling elite, upper crust philosophy or religion; Taoism was never dominant, and was heavily influenced by Buddhism. It was Buddhism that was most accepted by the huge mass of the people. Some of the recent emphasis on Taoism among Chinese is contrived; it's to show China's distinction from India and partly to counter yoga.

[ManuT]

3 news articles on China yesterday.

1. China vents fury at dissident's Nobel award

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11507381

Some international news channels - which are not widely available in China anyway - were blocked on Friday night when running reports on Liu Xiaobo. Those blocked included the BBC.

And there has been little mention of Mr Liu on China's normally very active blogging sites.

The Nobel prizes are well known here.

'National humiliation'

Every year, the authorities and many Chinese hope that one of the country's authors, scientists or economists wins the prize in their field of expertise.

2. Chinese veteran politicians call for reform (already posted above)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11529920

"The officials who make the call do not leave their names, and the secrecy of the agents is protected, but you must heed their phone instructions."

3. How small acts can change the world

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11503379

In a free society, the weight of public opinion matters in such cases. In societies which are not free, people have to fight harder and risk more.

But the world is full of countries which were once dictatorships and are now free and properly democratic, from Argentina to South Africa.

And almost always it is small acts of resistance which have brought about the change.

[krisna]

Pakistan is a pearl

US President Barack Obama was quoted recently as telling a secret meeting in the Oval Office, "We need to make clear to people that the cancer is in Pakistan."
But in the eyes of the Chinese people, Pakistan is a pearl. The Chinese people treasure the great friendship between the two countries.

Almost another 20 years had passed when I went back to Pakistan early this year, where I felt overwhelmingly that many Pakistani people love China more than Chinese love their own country . Pakistan has proved to be China's closest friend and the only political and military ally to stay consistent in all weathers.
China owes its opening-up to the outside world to Pakistan.

I am always proud of the Pakistani scientists' achievements. I deeply admire Pakistani scientist and engineers for their hard work and talents in developing their country's science and technology(stolen fluoroscent green color).

Because Pakistan has strong defense science and technology, China feels very safe and peaceful in its frontier regions like Xinjiang and Tibet. There will be absolutely no stability in Xinjiang and Tibet without the solid brotherhood of Pakistan.

Tibet mentioned likely due to baki trying to apply brakes on India.

The paper is a CCP owned one.

[shiv]

Pakistan is a pearl

The paper is a CCP owned one.

I admire the CCP's sense of humor.

But OTOH the author says "There can be no stability in Tibet and Xinjiang without "the solid brotherhood of Pakistan"

Oh man! I thought China was a united stable country - and this chap says China needs Pakistan to stay together? Eh? Pakistan sure is a great example of a nation that holds together well.

[Sanku]

Herr Doktor is on a roll, his vintage best, after a long time.

Good that he has some toys to play with rather than turning his prodigious talents inwards in a friendly fire mode.


Sorry for OT, but had to say it.

[Murugan]

We have Two Monkeys on Our Shoulder

[uddu]

Fat Buddha is a symbol of "plentifulness". Used to "attract" money like those waving cats in Japanese restaurants. Used to bring money and good luck to the restaurant. Pretty funny considering what Buddha actually taught.

May be you learned in your CCP party class. Buddism is not against wealth. It only mentions wealth generation through righteous means, without cheating anyone, without gouging out the eyes of anyone and without looting and cheating people of Africa. Such a wealth generation though righteous means is always welcome to create a peaceful, harmonious, wealthy and happy society. And also generously donate to the needy.

[vish_mulay]

http://www.punemirror.in/article/123/20 ... India.html

Next time you complain what a dump India is, you must keep in mind that we’re allowed to call our country a dump and agree with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue.

We would have gloated had anybody like Liu Xiaobo got the Nobel Peace Prize, even if he had believed only Communism could salvage India.

Our state-sponsored internal violence does not stay a secret for too long because we have a relentless media. A good example would be the media disclosure that the top Maoist leader Azad was shot at point-blank by the Andhra Pradesh police.

Liu, an advocate of democracy, was thrown in jail last December. He got 11 years for drafting a manifesto called Charter ’08, calling for political reform, guarantee of human rights and an independent judicial system.

It was signed electronically by thousands of intellectuals, students and even former Communists. However, once the government saw the reach of the last bastion of free speech, the internet, it was duly blocked.

So, many ordinary Chinese have no idea about the charter. This happened around the same time Google was trying to eke out a deal for a “freer” search engine.

The Nobel win was not only blanked out by the media, but the commie bosses put liberalists, academics and bloggers, who were with Liu, in ‘soft detention’. This basically means a total communication blackout.

China’s most famous human rights lawyer, Pu Zhiqiang, is still under watch after a three-day detention. What the Chinese bosses have missed is that you cannot blank out the aspirations of millions of young people who agree with Liu’s non-violent protest.

We Indians are privileged because we can speak for the Maoists and not get arrested, slam the CWG and still enjoy the Games. As an economist friend of mine put it, “China has goods, India has better.” Disregard the grammar, and you’ll see what he means.

[sanjaykumar]

In India I can call MMS 'that raghead in Delhi' and in the US Obama routinely gets called 'that uppity n....r in the white house'.

People living in the US know how special it is, but do Indians likewise?

[svinayak]

Comparision of Indian foreign policy and Chinese policy is being done. This is old news but can see the outlook how it has deviated from their calculations

Henry Kissinger discusses war and more with Peter Robinson as part of the Hoover Institution's interview series, Uncommon Knowledge.

War and the media - the two have not partnered so well since Vietnam. But in the days of the Internet, conservative talk radio, and Fox News, has the dynamic changed?

Kissinger says only a bit, and that the media remain heavily biased against military action.

Additionally, the 1960s concept that the U.S. government is somehow an evil enterprise is alive and well.

In this environment, Kissinger says our leaders need to present a clearer and more educated vision of the American role in the world - Hoover Institution

[shiv]

I am no economist but I was digging into rumors and articles about the possibility of a collapse of China's banking system. There are two sides to the story - one side says "Will collapse" and the other side says "Will not collapse". I will briefly describe what I leaned (in layman's terms) for comments.

It is said that at a time of global economic downturn (2009), China's banks actually lent in excess of USD 1 trillion to stimulate the economy. The story is that many of these borrowers will be unable to repay leaving the banks with bad debt. China claims that its banking NPA's ("bad loans") are about 2% onlee but the prediction by doomsayers is that this will rise to 15 or 20%. Further "proof" that China is up to some tricks is the recent buyout of a Chinese bank by China Telecom. China Telecom has a lot of money and 600 million subscribers. Why would such a company want to buy out a loss making bank with bad loans? The explanation is that both are government companies anyway (baap ka maal) and the debts of the bank can be cleared by the excess funds with China Telecom. In any case there are no private shareholders to ask questions. And China Telecom got the bank really cheap, adding to the rumors.

On the other hand, those who deny that China's banks are going to collapse say that China has its own ways of making up for bad loans. One method is to keep interest rates on savings very low but keep lending rates high. What this means is that people who save money get less interest on their money and in effect the mango Chinaman is paying for the bad loans. That would not surprise me. What good are 1.4 billion Chinese if they cannot be "used" by the state. Another argument is that most loans in China are given only after the banks have secured some surety. Many people have to pay down up to 50% of the loan amount anyway making the loans less unsafe.

Either way, I don't know. Does anyone have any thoughts?

[shynee]

The Power Struggle Among China's Elite - FOREIGN POLICY

[Johann]

Shiv,

My knowledge of the Chinese banking system is limited, but this is how I understand the situation;

On the one hand, there is drag on economic performance overall from this sort of thing, especially in terms of productive allocation of finite resources, suppression of domestic consumption, etc.

On the other hand any crisis can be contained given the semi-closed, state-owned nature of the system, and the fact that the CPC has the power to expropriate anything any time it feels like it even if it is private, and the massive foreign currency and cash reserves the country has accumulated.

I think the UAE experience confirms this - the Dubai government created a bubble and produced a massive loss of state money, but also a lot of other people's private money. The Abu Dhabi government has stepped in and simply taken over, and while individual managers have been punished, the whole machine is still busy churning away.

The Gulf Arabs and Chinese showed the way in the 1980s how to integrate your national economy in to the global one in a profit oriented way while still maintaining a significant degree of autarky. The private sector economic elite are locals who answer to the party or throne, and not the other way around.

The real challenge for the PRC its growth is driven by manufacturing, and export led manufacture in particular. China in the 2000s reached the point where it is now a net importer of materials and of energy, and its reliance on imports will only increase if it continues down its current path.

These are going to eat in to cash reserves, and threaten the control and thus the stability of the Chinese financial system in various ways - UNLESS - the PRC can find ways to turn foreign resource extraction in to something that runs by the rules of its domestic economic system. This is what China is trying to do in places like Africa, Central Asia and increasingly Af-Pak and Burma - buying mines, farms and forests outright, using Chinese labour and equipment, and attempting to pay for these through barter (including construction of infrastructure) instead of cash. This is going to make a lot of people around the world unhappy - it was similar practices that sparked anti-American feelings in Mexico, Cuba, Central America and pre-1949 China, anti-British feelings in India and China, anti-French feeling in Vietnam and Algeria, etc - the subordination of local economic interests in favour of the homeland's economic interests.

There was a reason in that you saw an alliance emerge between Western labour movements and anti-colonial native elites during the decolonisation process - both groups felt screwed over by status quo. The result was the simultaneous emergence of a social security net, and decolonisation. China with its underpaid workers who have receive so little in the way of services or protection from the state, and its expansionism within the developing world is going to be caught in the same pair of scissors.

[Raghavendra]

Our state-sponsored internal violence does not stay a secret for too long because we have a relentless media. A good example would be the media disclosure that the top Maoist leader Azad was shot at point-blank by the Andhra Pradesh police.

Azad's encounter was not fake http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/Video ... -fake.html
September 1, 2010
Forensic experts, after deconstructing exclusive visuals from the encounter site as well as post-mortem report, say the police encounter of top Naxal leader Azad wasn't fake.

[Johann]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... le1754615/


Communist Chinese elders promote free speech in open letter

Let's see how this works out.

Nothing will come of it - this has been seen so many times in the PRC's 60 years of history.

Leadership figures engaged in power struggles with each other have *repeatedly* used the desires of students and the intelligentsia's (which often includes older, retired CPC leaders who become disillusioned after a chance to reflect on how things work) for intellectual freedom to mobilise support. Once they've defeated their rival and power is secure they crush their rival. Those who had been supported in calls for freedom are told to go home, keep quiet and forget about it. Those who do not comply have their lives, and the lives of their families ruined through dismissal from jobs, imprisonment, torture and exile.

The hundred flowers campaign, the democracy wall, Tiananmen, etc, etc all enjoyed high level support from CPC factions - at first.

It happens *every* generation, but the enforced silence means that every generation not only has to re-invent the wheel, but has so little idea that it was done before.

While Mainland Chinese are freer than they were during the Cultural Revolution, how much freer than they were in say, 1955?

This is a struggle over the 2012 elections. Even if Wen won, we'd see no more than a temporary relaxation. There are people in the CPC who have liberal instincts, and have always been, but they learn to suppress those instincts to survive. Those like Zhao Zhiyang who forget and get carried away will face a lifetime of isolation enforced by the Party.

The bottom line is that intellectual freedom will not be allowed as long as the CPC remains committed to a total monopoly of power. Freedom means competition, and competition means losing sometimes. The CPC shows no indication that it thinks political pluralism is even good as a distant goal for China. That was and is Heresy No.1

[chetak]

Azad's encounter was not fake http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/Video ... -fake.html
September 1, 2010
Forensic experts, after deconstructing exclusive visuals from the encounter site as well as post-mortem report, say the police encounter of top Naxal leader Azad wasn't fake.

Raghavendra ji,

He was talking about the beauty of our country where you can take a true encounter and still call it fake, talk convincingly about the human rights of terrorists and dump on the security forces.

[Leonard]

Shiv wrote,

I am no economist but I was digging into rumors and articles about the possibility of a collapse of China's banking system. There are two sides to the story - one side says "Will collapse" and the other side says "Will not collapse". I will briefly describe what I leaned (in layman's terms) for comments.

....

Either way, I don't know. Does anyone have any thoughts?

There are great detailed books on the above ..

The Coming Collapse of China -- Gordon Chang

Web site:

http://www.gordonchang.com/qanda.htm

The coming economic crisis in China - Jim Jubak
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/In ... china.aspx


This ONE BELOW is the most interesting .....

China "Bubble" ( Bursting ) Update & Newest Spin "Excluding Tier 1 Cities Everything Is Fine......"

Not only the cracks regarding the Three Gorges Dam are getting more and more obvious on a daily basis...... You can read my earlier takes on China here

How many flats in China are sitting empty? The media recently floated a story — denied by power companies — that 64.5 million urban electricity meters registered zero consumption over a recent, six-month period. That led to a theory that China has enough empty apartments to house 200 million people….

What especially distinguishes China’s property bubble…is an unprecedented amount of living space. This huge stock of empty flats equals the nation’s quantity bubble.

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/20 ... ewest.html

SHANGHAI — James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.

Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.

As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China’s hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse,” he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.

“Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses,” he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. “And there’s no bigger credit excess than in China.” He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/08/busin ... hanos.html


Chinese have been cooking "books" for a long time --- Commies, have made sure, that their 1 Million Brethren, have become fabulously wealthy, while if you travel to the "interior", conditions are a 100 times worse ..

More closer -- China's bubble is coming to burst, more China is becoming "aggressive" with its neighbors, etc etc --

2011, Following the Japanese Economic problems when they do come out, the Chinese will finally admit their problems -- Again its a "loss of face" issue ..

[Arihant]

This is the Chinese approach to economic statistics: Imagine the desired figures and and publish them first, then wait and hope for reality to catch up...

[shiv]

How many flats in China are sitting empty? The media recently floated a story — denied by power companies — that 64.5 million urban electricity meters registered zero consumption over a recent, six-month period. That led to a theory that China has enough empty apartments to house 200 million people….

What especially distinguishes China’s property bubble…is an unprecedented amount of living space. This huge stock of empty flats equals the nation’s quantity bubble.

Well - I found this in a rather naive sounding Chinese student's blog yesterday
http://www.englishbaby.com/blog/celebration113

Housing is another problem. We can see resident zones every 20 miles. Most of us will think that the buildings are full of inhabitants. But it is not true. Since the price of housing is very high, and rises quickly in the society which the economy develops fast, most of people can’t afford it. What’s more, there are so many cars and so many people in the city, it is noisy and crowded. As a result, many people remove to the outskirts. In case of the situation getting worse, the real estate has to lower the price of houses.

[naren]

^^^ No need to worry. He will be identified and sent to "re-education" camp.

[sampat]

Chini on softpower mission in Africa and Indian subcontinent.

Chinese Hospital Ship “Peace Ark” Sets Sail For Africa
beebs video

China’s 10,000 ton hospital ship “Peace Ark” left Zhoushan Port today en route to the Gulf of Aden on its first overseas medical mission, according to a Chinese government announcement. It says the ship carries 428 “soldiers, officers and medical workers.” During its 87-day mission the ship’s medical staff will provide treatment to people in Djibouti, Kenya, Tanzania, the Seychelles and Bangladesh.

The Chinese are adept (and becoming more so) at the use of soft power in all its forms, not just economic, as this deployment makes clear. Taking a page from the U.S. Navy playbook, the hospital ship will become a major tool in China’s soft power exploits.

The Peace Ark’s deployment should be seen in the same light as China’s PLA Navy participating in anti-piracy patrols: maximizing the strategic and messaging value of the limited number of ships it’s able to maintain on long patrols. Undoubtedly, a major public relations campaign will follow the hospital ship’s various port calls.

Very few world navies have purpose built hospital ships and it’s rather significant that the Chinese built such a large one. That they did goes to the drivers behind China’s naval expansion. The Peace Ark is another signal that the PLA Navy is moving beyond the defending territorial claims imperative into more far ranging economic interests.

China must secure raw materials to supply its voracious economic growth, Africa is a source of many of those resources, hence the peace Ark goes to Africa. China must also worry about the safety and health of its overseas workers, thousands of which are working across the African continent.

[TonyMontana]

So, whether atheist or not, indirectly people do believe in Buddha.

I also don't stop on 13, 14 and 7 when I set the volume on my car radio. I hope you get my drift.

May be you learned in your CCP party class. Buddism is not against wealth. It only mentions wealth generation through righteous means, without cheating anyone, without gouging out the eyes of anyone and without looting and cheating people of Africa. Such a wealth generation though righteous means is always welcome to create a peaceful, harmonious, wealthy and happy society. And also generously donate to the needy.

You must get along fine with the wealth gospel guys.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperity_theology

I am no economist but I was digging into rumors and articles about the possibility of a collapse of China's banking system. Either way, I don't know. Does anyone have any thoughts?

Again. I propose a dedicated "Coming Collapse of China" Thread, where news, info and analysis can be concentrated.

Mods?

[TonyMontana]

The CPC shows no indication that it thinks political pluralism is even good as a distant goal for China. That was and is Heresy No.1

Epic! Makes sad reading doesn't it? That being said, in the internet generation, things might just work out different. Here's hoping.

[TonyMontana]

All hail the new Emperor! Ten thousand years! Ten thousand years! Ten thousand of ten thousand years!


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ssion.html

Chinese 'heir apparent' appointed to powerful military commission

The man tipped as the next president of China has taken an important step on the road to power when he was appointed to a key position in a powerful commission that overseas China's two-million strong People's Liberation Army.