Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Oct. 20, 2010

Tamang · Post by **Tamang** » 02 Dec 2010 01:21

¶2. (C) NAWAS FAVORED: Khanzada said the Pakistanis are convinced that Saudi King Abdallah would prefer to see Pakistan run by former PM Nawas Sharif, and were cutting back assistance to Pakistan to hasten this eventuality. Nawas “practically lives” in Saudi Arabia, Khanzada declared, claiming that Nawas had even been favored with reserved prayer space in the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina. Because Nawas’ daughter is married to a grandson of King Fahd, he has “become a member of the Saudi royal family.” (Comment: Embassy is not able to confirm whether this is true. End comment.)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Dec 2010 01:58

^^^So Pakis are now providing legtimacy to KSA sheiks by supplying daughters? Recall the whole drama of Jordan King's family researching the antiquity of the Indian Muslim/Pakistani lady (Suharwady?) who got married to the Crown Prince Hasan! Now Badmash is doing the same.

What this means is KSA royal family is very uncertain/unstable, that it needs more than Ibn Wahab blood ties. It now needs prophet's blood ties!

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 02 Dec 2010 03:21

CRamS wrote:
I posit that if US wants to, in a heartbeat it can: 1) Make TSP real nuke nude, not just nuke nude against the west but against India too, 2) Make Kiyani hand over list of hardcore terrorists in TSP involved in crimes against India, 2) Hunt down LET with the same gusto as TSP is forced to hunto down some Arab dim-wits and call them Al Queda #1, 2, 0r 3, and 3) come to a reasonable compromise in all its real or imaginary so called "disputes" with India. Of course, if USA does all this, there won't be any TSP left, the so called war on terror won't even exist, but all that is another matter that doesn't suit the US empire's interests.

So this means that US policy on Pakistan is not real but just a facade. These statements from Kiyani about India this and India that; is actually a jointly approved statements to keep India on the edge. US media are the most loud about new reports of Pakistan and its obsession with India.

US keeps looking at Pakistan to make policies for India. Using India card they are looking for changes in Pakistan. This has been done brilliantly by the US policymakers.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 02 Dec 2010 03:34

Acharya^^^

If you genuinely believe that the US can do all that then the counter move is rather simple: Make Pakistan a US/Western problem. A clear and present danger. Keep in mind the US threat (Woodward's book) of 150 sites that will be intensively bombed should another Faisal Shazad episode occur and be successful.

This will require creative thinking (which may be the insurmountable problem) by GoI. Certainly many of the ingredients are already there: widespread anti-Americanism among the Abduls and the Sharifs. Paranoia among the Guls and Begs along with the Brigadiers and below in the TSPA. So, it would relatively easy to reorient the threat ever so subtly.

But, I suspect the US is actually clueless about what to do. This peace with honor disengagement is always tricky especially if you're counting on your adversary to help you disengage. What we should keep eyes and ears open for is the AfPak review scheduled in three weeks or so that Obama has etched in stone.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 02 Dec 2010 03:42

Cosmo_R wrote:
But, I suspect the US is actually clueless about what to do. This peace with honor disengagement is always tricky especially if you're counting on your adversary to help you disengage. What we should keep eyes and ears open for is the AfPak review scheduled in three weeks or so that Obama has etched in stone.

They pretend to be clueless. Check the RAND report and they make sound analysis.
There are different versions coming from different groups now.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Dec 2010 03:46

BTW, I disagree with the wikileak on the likely hazard to TSP nukes. Its not loose material for that will require the rest of the stuff to be kosher and is thus beyond any lose cannon jihadi. The most likely hazard is a jihadi/Wahabandi officer rising to the top of the TSPA and be the next Saladin. A Western outlook and Islamist at core person.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 02 Dec 2010 03:50

Acharya^^^

Alright, you have a higher opinion of their abilities than I do. I still think of Robert Gates going to Iran in 1986 offering a cake in the shape of a key to signify an 'opening' and his mullah hosts being offended because they saw this a 'phallic rebuttal'. In short, a triumph of resources over intellect.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/05/ ... nd_us.html

In any event, I'd like to get your reaction to the other part of what I wrote.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 02 Dec 2010 04:00

Cosmo_R wrote:Acharya^^^

Alright, you have a higher opinion of their abilities than I do.
In any event, I'd like to get your reaction to the other part of what I wrote.

I dont know everything but there appears to be a strategy on Pakistan. They have changed it little bit and they have been consistent with it from 1970s when HK laid the policy in the Af Pak region.

Make Pakistan a US/Western problem. A clear and present danger. Keep in mind the US threat (Woodward's book) of 150 sites that will be intensively bombed should another Faisal Shazad episode occur and be successful.

This will require creative thinking (which may be the insurmountable problem) by GoI. Certainly many of the ingredients are already there: widespread anti-Americanism among the Abduls and the Sharifs. Paranoia among the Guls and Begs along with the Brigadiers and below in the TSPA. So, it would relatively easy to reorient the threat ever so subtly.

Op Parakram is part of this policy. Paki generals are worried about two front attack from the East by India and from the west by NATO.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/05/ ... nd_us.html

These are all their internal debate between themselves blaming other group for not following they wanted. They all have the same end goal.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 02 Dec 2010 05:05

Acharya wrote:
CRamS wrote:
I posit that if US wants to, in a heartbeat it can. . .
So this means that US policy on Pakistan is not real but just a facade. These statements from Kiyani about India this and India that; is actually a jointly approved statements to keep India on the edge. US media are the most loud about new reports of Pakistan and its obsession with India.

US keeps looking at Pakistan to make policies for India. Using India card they are looking for changes in Pakistan. This has been done brilliantly by the US policymakers.

CRamS & Acharya, my position is that there are a lot of shades here. The US has quite a few leverages with Pakistan. It is also true that some leverages will be used by the USA and some will not be. There was a time in the 50s when the Pakistanis were completely at the mercy of the US, but that situation does not obtain anymore. There are also areas where the US can do pretty little with Pakistan. Ultimately, Pakistan will have to be sorted out mostly by us.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 02 Dec 2010 05:25

^^^ Acharya

I am not completely clear on how OP was intended to make TSP a US problem. We lost 700 men and it took us months to get the army to the border and then they sat there and we got our ears cuffed because one General went too close to the border. It became our problem again as everyone figured out we were not going to do anything except huff and puff.

Please look carefully at what I am saying.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 02 Dec 2010 06:01

Cosmo_R wrote: It became our problem again as everyone figured out we were not going to do anything except huff and puff.

By not doing anything it has become a world problem.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 02 Dec 2010 06:31

SSridhar wrote:Ultimately, Pakistan will have to be sorted out mostly by us.

I agree, but not fully. Consider this argument.

TSP has been using jihadis and nuke proliferation to kill India by a thousand cuts. But over time, we've grown stronger incrementally and TSP has been going down in step functions. At the same time both India and TSP have plugged into the current world order more and more, but we are a net supplier and TSP is a net taker.

This trend has forced TSP to try to balance two countervailing forces it needs to inflict pain on India. The first is the need for bigger and bolder 26/11 type attacks so that a stronger India will be forced to notice and the second is the need for TSP to keep its jihadi proxies from causing pain to TSP's financiers (Unkil, Europe etc.). But the problem is that the people who do 26/11 or worse can never be fully under control. With 26/11, we have just seen the guy Ilyas Kashmiri and that TSPA Major Abdul Rehman "go rogue" and try to do the same thing in Europe or US. In exactly the same fashion, the same Haqqani group TSPA uses to hurt India in Afghanistan happens to be the group that is most closely tied with Al Qaeda.

At the end of the day, if TSPA chooses to stay on this path, we are going to see more 26/11 and bigger type attacks on India but with each, the likelihood of even bigger attacks on TSPA's patrons moves closer to a certainty. There is absolutely no way for TSPA to keep the jihadi hose pipe narrowly aimed at us alone. This is the exact same conclusion that the dimwits in Tubelightistan, Londonistan etc. are getting to, albeit after the logic being beaten into their heads by the repeated threats and near attacks with TSPA/ISI links. Change is hard and slow but it is clearly happening.

I believe that if we are to see this end in a somewhat manageable way, it is likely to be after a major attack on the financiers, after which, TSP's patrons, India and the non-China G-8 are going to be on the same side and willing to use all instruments of leverage. Small roadblocks like Saudi Arabia will fall in line. China is a question mark, but it is unlikely that it will want to take on the whole world to prop up a proxy circling the drain.

amit · Post by **amit** » 02 Dec 2010 07:05

R-man,

Great post. I'd like to probe your thoughts a bit more on this. Do you think the longer the time lapse between 26/11 and another similar attack on India the pressure will build within the jihadi groups and this in turn could either result in pressure being released either in land of the patrons in West or on TSP itself?

I mean you prime an Abdul for a suicide mission by brainwashing him, then how long can you keep him idle?

I'm curious to know what you think about this scenario because if indeed there's blowback then it could be good strategy on India's part to try and do everything possible to prevent a repeat of 26/11 with better policing, better intelligence etc. The idea would be to let the pressure build within TSPA.

arun · Post by **arun** » 02 Dec 2010 07:25

The Army of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan returns to the practices that it perfected against its erstwhile citizens of Bengali origin in what is today Bangladesh.

Is this what the “Jihad in the Path of Allah” part of its motto of “Faith, Piety and Jihad in the Path of Allah”, in Urdu “Iman, Taqwa, Jihad fi sabilillah”, means?

A growing body of evidence is lending credence to allegations of human rights abuses by Pakistan security forces during domestic operations against terrorists in Malakand Division and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

Read it all:

US embassy cables: US concerned about massive human rights abuses by Pakistan army

Be sure not to miss the lame response of that self appointed policeman of freedom, the US, owing to the expedient need of maintaining “goodwill within the Pakistan military”.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 02 Dec 2010 07:26

amit,

I don't believe that ISI-pigLeT terror attacks in India have or will follow a linear path. Think about it, after the 2001-02 standoff, we saw Akshardham, IISC etc. - all smaller scale. Then we had the 2006 Mumbai train bombs. The next big one was 26/11. In between, we saw attacks in Hyderabad, B'lore, Ayodhya, Varanasi, Delhi etc.

The "pressure relief" attacks are going to smaller - heck we had the Pune blast which everyone seems to have already forgotten. All along, TSPA is likely to make preparations for the successor to 26/11 (and worse), which it will keep in the back pocket to be used at a time of its choosing.

We can defintely do a better job of thwarting the larger attack, but the smaller ones will be almost impossible to stop.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 02 Dec 2010 07:38

R-man - terror attacks in India reached their peak in 2008. After 26/11 there has been only Pune in Feb 2010. I find it very difficult to believe that the abrupt stoppage of attacks is because of increased security in India. Despite my otherwise cursing the US for its anti-India role in Pakistan - I suspect that US pressure on the Paki army - ie that the US would take India's side has definitely helped. But this also means that of the US takes the pressure off the Pakistan army can restart terror.

I also do not believe that US pressure on Pakistan was due to kindness of the US. It looks like India has ways of squeezing US balls via Pakistan in ways that the US cannot do anything about. And US diplomats end up sending Packee viewpoint cables to DC Saying "If you solve Cashmere - we will say aal iz wel".

I believe the US is currently too stupid to foresee what Pakistan will become if Cashmere suddenly gets handed on a platter to Pakland. It won't happen - and that is why the US is so frustrated with India.

Anindya · Post by **Anindya** » 02 Dec 2010 07:45

anupmisra wrote:
SSridhar wrote:There is every reason to believe that the Pakistanis who were 'brought in' were indeed Pakistan Army engineers.
Quite possibility ex-army engineers, to give the PA a modicum of deniability.

Actually, if you see this article by Khalid Hasan - it is quite explicit in its claim:

Swiss documentary on Afghanistan: Pakistani, Saudi engineers helped destroy Buddhas

By Khalid Hasan

WASHINGTON: The Bamiyan Buddhas in Afghanistan were destroyed by the Taliban with the help of Pakistani and Saudi engineers.

According to an account published here on Saturday, a local Afghan told the makers of a Swiss documentary on the giant statues which had stood there, carved in the side of a mountain for hundreds of years, had been destroyed by engineers from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. The dynamiting of the statues took place in March 2001. Swiss documentary filmmaker Christian Frei, who has made several documentaries that have won praise at various international film festivals, shot ‘The Giant Buddhas’ in Afghanistan.

from http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 006_pg7_38

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 02 Dec 2010 07:56

Shiv,

US pressure alone does not explain the relative lull. There are other tactical reasons as well, one of which is somewhat more aggressive approach by GoI led by P.Chidambaram. Another more important reason is Bangladesh, but no one is talking about it. Big players and ringleaders of pigLeT and HuJI were nabbed by the Sheikh Hasina govt. We have custody of some of these guys and using the danda on them we have some of their Indian contacts. This Bangladesh/Nepal-based LeT/HuJI network was key to all the small attacks - Varanasi, Delhi, Bangalore etc. It will take some time for TSP to rebuild this part, but they are already well underway, with cells in Sri Lanka, Maldives etc.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 02 Dec 2010 08:13

7 held in Spain for suspected terror links

Six Pakistanis and a Nigerian, suspected of providing forged passports to the Lashkar-e-Taiba and groups linked to the al-Qaeda and, in particular, to those behind the November 2008 attacks in Mumbai

...The gang also supplied such documents to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam...

...The international structure was led by a Pakistani citizen living in Thailand

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 02 Dec 2010 08:40

shiv wrote:Despite my otherwise cursing the US for its anti-India role in Pakistan - I suspect that US pressure on the Paki army - ie that the US would take India's side has definitely helped.

I suspect a huge drying up of support/connivance from within-India elements after 26/11 is the reason for the current calm.

I believe the US is currently too stupid to foresee what Pakistan will become if Cashmere suddenly gets handed on a platter to Pakland. It won't happen - and that is why the US is so frustrated with India.

No, I think they know perfectly well that Cashmere will become another FATA or Waziristan - hideout for the terrorists - if it is handed to Pakland. They simply use loose talk as a lever on India. If India stops taking the US seriously on its Cashmere pronouncements, even that lever goes away.

The US has not been very successful at imposing its will on two-bit countries like Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Somalia. Hell, even the Gaza strip, where to US's dismay, Hamas won elections that were called for in the first place by the US. In many of these cases, the stakes are/were higher for the US than anything it gains from Pakistan via a Cashmere donation.

IMO, the constant drumbeat that unless India sucks up to the US, the US might, horror of horrors, appoint a "special envoy on Kashmir", is simply psy-ops on India.

Look at it objectively - the US lacks the strength, the motive, the ability or the will to do anything other than be a nuisance about Cashmere. What some Indians fear though is Indian weakness, succumbing to US pressure, a sellout. Even though there is really no evidence for it in the last 60 years. The US will play on this Indian fear as long as it can - who voluntarily gives up a lever?

Mauli · Post by **Mauli** » 02 Dec 2010 09:55

Of commandos, drones and human rights

WASHINGTON: US diplomatic cables leaked over the past 24 hours show that Pakistan twice requested American soldiers to embed with its Frontier Corps in North Waziristan and South Waziristan, desperately sought US helicopters to deal with the insurgents and Pakistani leaders quietly approved drone attacks inside Fata.

“Chief of Army Staff Gen Kayani told Ambassador he was ‘desperate’ for helicopter support as he had only five MI-17s operational,” says a cable the then US ambassador, Anne W. Patterson, sent to Washington on May 5 last year.

These and other cables show a greater cooperation between the US and Pakistani armed forces than either side seems willing to acknowledge.

“It is critical to our interests that they receive help as soon as possible,” the ambassador writes. “We request expedited congressional notification of the MI-17 waiver. In the meantime, we continue to seek Cobra helicopter spare parts.”

Another set of cables contradict sustained denials by US and Pakistani officials of American military presence in Pakistan. The cables reveal that US military Special Operations Forces have been conducting offensive operations inside Pakistan, helping direct US drone strikes and conducting joint operations with Pakistani forces against Al Qaeda and Taliban insurgents in North and South Waziristan and elsewhere in Fata.

According to an Oct 9, 2009, cable by Ambassador Patterson, the operations were “almost certainly (conducted) with the personal consent of (Pakistan’s) Chief of Army Staff General Kayani” and were coordinated with the US Office of the Defence Representative in Pakistan.

US forces operating in Fata were forward operating troops from the Joint Special Operations Command, the most elite force within the US military made up of Navy SEALs, Delta Force and Army Rangers.

In one operation in September last year, four US special operations forces personnel “embedded with the Frontier Corps (FC)… in the Fata,” provided “ISR” — intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.

The support from the US forces, according to the cable, “was highly successful, enabling the FC to execute a precise and effective artillery strike on an enemy location”.

A month later, the Pakistan army again “approved deployment of US special operation elements to support Pakistani military operations”, the cable adds. This was documented in the cable as a “sea change” in Pakistan’s military leaders’ thinking, saying they had previously been “adamantly opposed (to) letting us embed” US special operations forces with Pakistani forces.

The cable notes that “US special operation elements have been in Pakistan for more than a year, but were largely limited to a training role”, adding that the Pakistani units that received training from US special operations forces “appear to have recognised the potential benefits of bringing US SOF personnel into the field with them”.

In another operation cited in the cables, the US teams, led by JSOC, are described as providing support to the Pakistani Army’s 11th Corp and included “a live downlink of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) full motion video”. Whether the drones were used for surveillance or as part of a joint offensive is unclear from the documents.

“Patient relationship-building with the military is the key factor that has brought us to this point,” the cable says.

The embassy also notes the potential consequences of the leaking of the activities: “These deployments are highly politically sensitive because of widely-held concerns among the public about Pakistani sovereignty and opposition to allowing foreign military forces to operate in any fashion on Pakistani soil. Should these developments and/or related matters receive any coverage in the Pakistani or US media, the Pakistani military will likely stop making requests for such assistance.”

A second set of cables deals with US drone attacks inside Fata. One such cable describes a 2008 meeting with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani in which he brushes aside concerns about the use of Predator drones against targets in the tribal areas and gives an insight into how he would deny any cooperation.

The cables quote Ambassador Patterson as saying that the country’s political leadership approved the strikes in Pakistan’s tribal regions.

The cable says that Interior Minister Rehman Malik suggested “we hold off alleged Predator attacks until after the Bajaur operation”.

The prime minister brushed aside Mr Malik’s remarks and said: “I don’t care if they do it as long as they get the right people. We’ll protest in the National Assembly and then ignore it.”

It seems that Pakistan saw the drone attacks as so effective they wanted some of their own. At a meeting in Islamabad in June 2009 attended by then US National Security adviser Gen James Jones, President Asif Ali Zardari “made repeated pleas for drones to be ‘put in Pakistan’s hands’ so that Pakistan would own the issue and drone attacks (including collateral damage) would not provoke anti-Americanism”, one cable says.

President Zardari said the technology behind them was “not cutting-edge” and said he had raised the issue with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Human rights violations

In some cables sent to Washington, Ambassador Patterson also expresses deep concerns about alleged human rights violations in Swat and adjacent areas.

“A growing body of evidence is lending credence to allegations of human rights abuses by Pakistan security force” during fighting in the Swat valley and the tribal belt, Ambassador Patterson wrote in Sept 2009.

She said the most worrisome allegations concerned murders in which both regular army and paramilitary frontier corps soldiers — who are drawn from the Pashtun tribes — were implicated.

The ambassador said cultural traditions meant revenge killings were “key to maintaining a unit’s honour”, while commanding officers complained that Pakistan’s weak judicial system was incapable of prosecuting detainees.

Pakistani police were also involved in the killings but were dealt with through a separate chain of command, she said, adding that an estimated 5,000 detainees — picked up during anti-Taliban operations in Malakand division — were at risk. Ms Patterson proposed a number of measures to counter the problems, ranging from offering human rights training and promoting prison reform, to helping draft a new law that would create a “parallel administrative track” for charging and sentencing combat detainees. British officials could help draft the law, she suggested.

The embassy “fully recognises that there is little that the (US government) can do to change the culture of revenge that underlies many of the extra-judicial killings,” the ambassador wrote.

“However, it is our view that if senior commanders are offered a viable alternate to deal with detained combatants … the prevalence of human rights abuses will diminish. Much of this is dependent on goodwill … that can easily erode if too much public criticism from USG (US government) officials over these incidents is forthcoming. For this reason, post advises that we avoid comment … and that efforts remain focused on dialogue and the assistance strategy,” she added.

http://www.dawn.com/2010/12/02/of-comma ... hts-2.html

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 02 Dec 2010 10:04

Pakistan HEU Repatriation

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Dec 2010 10:29

Prem, More such leaks and the Wahabandis will stage a regime change.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Dec 2010 12:41

"Igzackly!",said the great Obelix.The great "numbskull",oops!Sorry...Zardar has said as much,that his sister should succeed him if he is assassinated.

Leaks about Pakistan confirm many theories

By Andrew Buncombe, Asia Correspondent
Thursday, 2 December 2010

Pakistan yesterday made a show of denouncing the publication of the Wikileaks diplomatic cables and insisted its nuclear stockpile was in no danger of falling into the hands of extremists.

The country's High Commissioner, Wajid Shamsul Hasan, said the material had a "foolproof control and command system". "We have always been telling them straight forward that [the nuclear weapons] are in secure hands, they don't have to worry about it and we will protect them," he told the BBC. "They are the dearest assets that we have and we'll not allow anything to fall into any adventurer's hands."

But even as Mr Hasan was defending Pakistan and condemning Wikileaks, some observers thought that perhaps the most striking thing about the secret cables was not that they contained amazing new revelations but that they confirmed what many in Pakistan believed for some time about various issues confronting their country. It is just that the US usually says the opposite, at least in public.

More than one commentator remarked on the perceptiveness of then Ambassador Anne Patterson, dispatcher of many of the cables, as revealed by the messages she sent to the State Department in Washington. "Wikileaks have taken the way we do politics in Pakistan out of the closet," said Ayesha Tammy Haq, a talk-show host.

Certainly, for the student of Pakistani affairs and in particular the country's troubled relationship with Washington, there is much minutiae to savour. Who would not be intrigued by President Asif Ali Zardari's purported fear that the army may try and assassinate him and his belief that in such circumstances his sister, Faryal Talpur, should succeed him? Who would not smile at then chief of Britain's defence staff, Sir Jock Stirrup's assessment of Mr Zardari as a "numbskull"?

More seriously, the cables also provide confirmation that US special forces have worked on the ground in Pakistan and give previously unreported details about where they were located and what they were doing.

But on the larger themes and broader issues, the cables offer only confirmation rather than surprise. Few really believed, for instance, the current US strategy of providing billions of dollars of support to the Pakistan military would persuade the army to drop its support for militant elements it considers a vital strategic asset.

"The 'revelations' that concern Pakistan-US relations come as no surprise to anyone, I think. For the last several years, there have been suspicions in Pakistan about US intentions, actions, and plans, and vice versa," said Bina Shah, a Karachi-based writer and columnist. "The diplomatic cables only serve to confirm what people have been worried about, especially in regard to the US fears about our nuclear assets."

Such assessments bring into sharp relief the public pronouncements made by US over certain events. For instance, in the aftermath of the Pakistan military's operation last spring to drive Taliban fighters from the Swat valley, there were many claims by human rights activists that death squads were killing suspected militants. When asked about this, the US said it was raising the issue with the Pakistanis. We now know that the US had convincing evidence about a hundred such killings but decided to keep quiet in order not to lose the "goodwill" of the army.

Likewise, when Seymour Hersh reported in the New Yorker last year about the extent of American anxiety over the vulnerability of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, his claims were routinely dismissed. At the very least his article now bears reading again.

PS:In another leaked document,of which there has been little copmment on amost important revelation,that there was British worry about an Indo-Pak spat because of its "500,000 Paki-Brits living there"! This is an astonishing admission and definitely news to us in India.It now explains why some Brit govts. keep on trying to interfere in Kashmir's affairs.Such a stand also gives the British voice/claim that their "concern" over J&K is because so many of "their citizens" live there! This should be immediately demolished by our MEA.The whole of J&K legitimately belongs to India and the citizens living in J&K and POK are INDIAN citizens.Unless the GOI takes this stand,it will allow the proverbial camel to once again sneak its nose into the sub-continent's tent! This cosy dual-citizenship of "500,000" Paki-Brits is an insidious lie that must be countered by India.It expains why the issue of Kashmir is regularly debated in Britain by Labour more often with an eye on its electoral fortunes.

amit · Post by **amit** » 02 Dec 2010 13:26

India tells Pak to end its illegal occupation of J&K

"Kashmir is an internal matter of India," said Krishna, who is here on a 10-day visit to attend the annual UN General Assembly meeting.

Pointing out that Pakistan is in "illegal occupation of some parts of Jammu and Kashmir", Krishna said, "it is desirable that they vacate that and then start advising India as to how to go about doing things in Kashmir."

Interesting. Has India said this before at the UN?

Note: Welcome as it is, I wish Krishna didn't use such effeminate language. Why can't he be more forceful?

amit · Post by **amit** » 02 Dec 2010 13:28

Rangudu wrote:We can defintely do a better job of thwarting the larger attack, but the smaller ones will be almost impossible to stop.

R-man,

Agree on this point. And now that you said it, I guess it makes sense, with Bangladesh being locked in by Sheikh Hasina, the smaller attacks have become more difficult. That's probably one of the reasons why, after 26/11 we've only had the Pune incident. Shiv's point about Muslim support diminishing - remember a lot of Muslims got killed at the train station - could also be a reason.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 02 Dec 2010 13:38

Rangudu wrote:I believe that if we are to see this end in a somewhat manageable way, it is likely to be after a major attack on the financiers, after which, TSP's patrons, India and the non-China G-8 are going to be on the same side and willing to use all instruments of leverage.

Rangudu, I concur with you that TSPA will never be able to control the terrorist tanzeems completely ever and therefore there is a possibility of a terror attack on western interests that could be traced back to them causing retribution from the US and allies. However, let me state my reason as to why I made that statement that India will have to ultimately sort out TSP.

TSPA leadership is well aware of the possibility of the rogue elements going completely out of control thus inviting death and destruction on PA. They experienced this waywardness first hand right after Musharraf's accession to the US demands in c. 2001. That is why PA leadership devised the good Taliban/bad Taliban strategy. The Americans have either gulped or pretend to have gulped this Pakistani dichotomy of the Taliban. TSPA also occasionally acts against Ilyas Kashmiri and the like thus reassuring the Americans of their intention and attention to this problem. The PA ingratiates itself to the Americans by sharing intelligence on likely terror attacks from the bad Taliban outfits. What are a few Muslim lives in the overall scheme of things anyway ?

In the meanwhile, the LeT (part of the good Taliban) has been under tremendous pressure because their cadres are leaving them in hordes and joining the more attractive bad Taliban so much so that even Prof. Hafeez Saeed's life is plainly in danger today. Whatever be the other reasons for 26/11, LeT leadership was under compulsion to demonstrate to its cadres that they were equally capable of spectacular assaults on the kafir. Even a David Headley, who initially worked with the LeT, came later under Brigade 313's spell. So long as he was with the LeT, the Americans never really bothered in spite of several warnings from his various wives. Though the Americans later pressed the UNSC to ban JuD after 26/11, that organization has been functioning with complete Punjab government backing and support and that de facto position is now more or less accepted by the US. The point is that though there is a growing realization that LeT/JuD is a dangerous terrorist organization, there is still no concerted pressure on Pakistan about that because LeT's impact is significantly on India only.

We may therefore have to wait inordinately for LeT/JuD to be sorted out by the Western powers. If PA ensures that they do not unnecessarily get entangled with Western attacks, the US may never have a need to sort out LeT/JuD. In this case, the US & TSPA may take out significant bad Taliban leadership leading to the rank & file of these rudderless tanzeems flocking to LeT/JuD. Ideologically, there is little that separates Ahl-e-Hadith from Wahhabi/Deobandi anyway. As part of the Afghan settlement by 2014, TSPA may yet again compartmentalize the various outfits into Afghan-centric and India-centric. The Afghan-centric ones will share power there. The GWOT may thus come to an end, leaving India exactly where it was prior to 2002.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 02 Dec 2010 14:00

all this talk of helicopter support requests from the PA is interesting
aren't NATO/ISAF leasing Mi17 helicopters in Afghanistan?
the very same type that the PA operates?
An Mi17 flies over the border with NATO troops on board - no one will be the wiser...

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 02 Dec 2010 14:30

On why the ISI will not take on the Lashkar

Q: The US recently said that Al Qaeda continues to be more dangerous compared to the Lashkar-e-Tayiba. Do you think this is correct?

A: I think one needs to qualify this by asking: Dangerous to whom? Al Qaeda continues to be pose a greater threat to the US, but the Lashkar clearly is more dangerous to India.

Q: Has the Lashkar emerged into a global organisation or does Al Qaeda continue to hold the fort?

A: There is no question that the Lashkar has grown beyond the dynamics of the India-Pakistan competition and become more active in the global jihad. Indeed, this evolution has been taking place since 9/11.

However, I'd argue that the core leadership and a significant portion of the rank-and-file remain influenced by national and regional dynamics.

So it is emerging into a more globally-oriented organisation, but evidence suggests the ambition to grow in this direction is not uniform throughout the group.

Q: Which outfits do you rate as most dangerous to the world today -- Lashkar, Al Qaeda or the Taliban?

A: I think that depends on where you live in the world. The Taliban is by far the most dangerous of the three in Afghanistan.

Al Qaeda is the most focused on destabilising Pakistan and executing attacks against US interests throughout the world.

Lashkar clearly poses the greatest danger to India.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Dec 2010 14:38

Tx. Amit for that news item on J&K and India's stand.If we just keep quiet,we suffer the risk of the Chinese "takeaway".I was recently told that thousands of sqkm. of Indian territory in the N.East is in Chinese control.We have to challenege every claim on our territory and as they say,possess it too wherever possible,as possession is "9/10ths of the law".The new pro-active stance of the MEA is most welcome.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 02 Dec 2010 15:28

the closer lashkar gets to al-queda the more the chances of a green revolution within the TSPA...

amit · Post by **amit** » 02 Dec 2010 16:06

Philip wrote:Tx. Amit for that news item on J&K and India's stand.If we just keep quiet,we suffer the risk of the Chinese "takeaway".I was recently told that thousands of sqkm. of Indian territory in the N.East is in Chinese control.We have to challenege every claim on our territory and as they say,possess it too wherever possible,as possession is "9/10ths of the law".The new pro-active stance of the MEA is most welcome.

Agree with you Philip but I don't like Krishna's tone. Still sounds self-apologetic. I hate to say this, but in this age of TV it pays to be a bit obnoxious and pushy. No wonder Putin is so admired.

I really wonder we can get so many obnoxious and pushy TV anchors but when it comes to where it matters the most our politicos appear just as what they are, old men. Barkha for External Affairs Minister anyone, I'm sure Radia can fix it?

*** Ducking for cover! ***

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 02 Dec 2010 16:57

Barking Mutt (Copyright Philip ) as an EAM. Hmmmmmmmmmm Interesting concept.......

But her first act will be to give Cashmeir away.
Second Give away the nukes.
Third I shudder to think.

So the weak and mumbling EAM is better any day then the Barking Mutt.

JMT.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 02 Dec 2010 16:59

amit bhai, why to take takleef? FM speaking in civilised tones
not very inyerface amreeki ishtyle, but more anglicised
message was strong though

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 02 Dec 2010 18:05

ramana wrote:^^^So Pakis are now providing legtimacy to KSA sheiks by supplying daughters?

Sons, daughters, birds of prey. What's the difference?

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 02 Dec 2010 18:09

Philip wrote:Tx. Amit for that news item on J&K and India's stand.If we just keep quiet,we suffer the risk of the Chinese "takeaway".I was recently told that thousands of sqkm. of Indian territory in the N.East is in Chinese control.We have to challenege every claim on our territory and as they say,possess it too wherever possible,as possession is "9/10ths of the law".The new pro-active stance of the MEA is most welcome.

On the other hand (playing the devil's barrister) , it (no action) will counter the paki whining about the "plebiscite". They (the pakis) wil have to ask the chinese brothers to return that ceded territory in order to comply with the UN terms, which the Chinese will never. Just another point to ponder.

rgsrini · Post by **rgsrini** » 02 Dec 2010 19:15

Amit wrote:Note: Welcome as it is, I wish Krishna didn't use such effeminate language. Why can't he be more forceful?

Amit wrote:Agree with you Philip but I don't like Krishna's tone. Still sounds self-apologetic. I hate to say this, but in this age of TV it pays to be a bit obnoxious and pushy. No wonder Putin is so admired.

I guess it is the nature of human beings...
FYI Amit, I am not talking about Krishna.
Some of us can never be happy even when we see progress. We try to find what else is wrong...
Some of us don't have any respect women...
Some of us adore being obnoxious...
Some of us will never be satisfied if the message is not delivered in crass bollywood style, from the bottom of the ~~stomach~~ intestines...
some of us are all of the above...

If a "Gora" (some of us are...) had said the same thing, then our babus will still be ridiculed. "See how they convey the message, couched in a diplomatic language. Our babus need to learn from them...". Sigh...

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 02 Dec 2010 19:52

SSridhar wrote:...We may therefore have to wait inordinately for LeT/JuD to be sorted out by the Western powers. If PA ensures that they do not unnecessarily get entangled with Western attacks, the US may never have a need to sort out LeT/JuD. In this case, the US & TSPA may take out significant bad Taliban leadership l...The Afghan-centric ones will share power there. The GWOT may thus come to an end, leaving India exactly where it was prior to 2002.

SS,

Very good points. I have underlined the parts on which I have a differing view.

1. I'm not saying that LeT/JuD will be sorted out by a global alliance. I'm saying that in the scenario I outlined, TSPA will be sorted out. It's like those Harry Potter type movies. Once you sort out the source of evil, all his creations will die on their own

2. Time has shown that TSPA cannot ensure that pigLeTs or other assets don't get involved in attacks on the West. In fact, if a TSPA officer gets close to the Al Qaeda type people, he himself gets converted to that thinking rather than the reverse happening. Heck, remember what happened to ex-ISI DG Mahmood Ahmed.

3. It's becoming increasingly unlikely that joint US and TSPA actions on "core assets" even the ones gone rogue will be anything other than superficial. Both of them cannot trust each other, especially when the "rogue" elements turn out to be serving Majors and Colonels. Read the number of times in the Wikileaks cables that Kayani says things like "Don't delve into my past role and ops".

4. The "Afghan centric" jihadis will never dissociate themselves from the Al Qaeda types to the level of safety needed for the US and its Western allies. This is the one thing that TSPA has been unable to control. Think about it - if Mullah Omar and Sirajuddin Haqqani were to release videos saying they disavow Al Qaeda, all the cut and run people in Washington will be lining up to demand a pullout tomorrow. Yet TSPA cannot get that done. You know why? Because the "assets" that TSPA cherishes most are by necessity the same ones that are intertwined with Al Qaeda. The 2014 pullout will not happen because it cannot happen. Just wait and watch. After the next scare or God Forbid a real attack, there will be calls to double the troops in Afghanistan. Unkil cannot leave the area without cutting of most of the snakeheads.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 02 Dec 2010 20:59

so in other words, strategic depth will be pakistan's undoing!?
poetic justice

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 02 Dec 2010 21:02

Lalmohan wrote:amit bhai, why to take takleef? FM speaking in civilised tones
not very inyerface amreeki ishtyle, but more anglicised
message was strong though

And Wikileaks will tell us what he actually said in private!