Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2011

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Feb 2011 17:49

Rumsfeld to Musharraf, 2001 - very blunt.
http://www.shahid-saeed.com/2011/02/tra ... ationship/

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 23 Feb 2011 18:34

By the end of the 18th or 19th century, the Sufi movement had come to a close and what were left were the rituals of the Barelvi mullahs and sajjada nasheens (holders of the saintly seat). The Sufi tradition could only survive in a multi-religious society, which Punjab and Sindh had before 1947. The purging of Hindus and Sikhs from Pakistan created an anti-Sufi environment. Therefore, it is not surprising at all that the followers of the Sufis, namely the Barelvis, have become just like the Wahabi and Deobandi maulvis. They could not avoid the dictates of the environment they lived in. In contrast, the Barelvis in India are much more tolerant of other religions because they have to live with them. More Hindus visit the Ajmer shrine of Moeenuddin Chishti than Muslims.

As a matter of fact, the Barelvis had abandoned the Sufi tradition long ago. They had become a ritualistic sect that considered khatam darood (rituals) as their basic distinction. The Sufi shrines had become the jagirs (estates) of sajjada nashins who were running them like feudal dynasties. This trend had started much earlier in history. Baba Farid and his ilk had refused to see kings and their men but his great grandsons joined the Tughlaqs and were awarded a huge estate in Pakpattan. It was a noteworthy estate when Ranjeet Singh conquered Punjab and he had to negotiate with the then sajjada nasheen.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Feb 2011 19:25

Drug bust in Tanzania, 2 Pakistanis among 4 arrested.
http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/22/tanzania ... tanis.html

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 23 Feb 2011 19:30

Artists, students can’t leave country without clearance: Malik

ISLAMABAD: Interior Minister Rehman Malik made it clear Wednesday that all artists and students on scholarships would not be allowed to leave the country without prior clearance from the home ministry, DawnNews reported.

Malik said while talking during the National Assembly session that the home ministry would involve intelligence agencies to find out which countries are providing scholarships to Pakistani students and for what purposes.

‘Thorough investigation will be carried out for all foreigners, their backgrounds and the foreign companies operating in the country,’ said Malik.

‘There is a conspiracy at work to divide the country,’ said the home minister. ‘Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is even more dangerous than the terrorists,’ he added.

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 23 Feb 2011 19:34

Pak to review visa policy for US officials and diplomats following Davis fiasco

According to the Nation, the Foreign Affairs Ministry and the Interior Ministry have strictly been directed by the Prime Minister's Secretariat to immediately update the data about the presence of US personnel in Pakistan.

"Neither the government nor the public can afford the repeat of such episode," a top Foreign Ministry official said.

"Now the era of special protocol for US spying network in Pakistan is over," another official added.
...
"It can be well-imagined that how much damage must had been done to our national interest after the Prime Minister empowered Haqqani to issue visas to US officials and diplomats arbitrarily and without administrative approval from Pakistan," an Interior Ministry official said. (ANI)

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 23 Feb 2011 20:03

A Mutiny Grows in Punjab

The second problem is that it gets America’s real priorities in the region back to front. The war in Afghanistan is a temporary U.S. interest, in which the chief concern is not the reality of victory or defeat as such (if only because neither can be clearly defined) but preserving some appearance of success in order to avoid the damage to American military prestige that would result from obvious failure. By contrast, preserving the Pakistani state and containing the terrorist threat to the West from Pakistan is a permanent vital interest not only of the U.S. military and political establishments but of every American citizen.

If Pakistan is to be broken as a state, it will be on the streets of Lahore and other great Punjabi cities, not in the Pashtun mountains. By the same token, the greatest potential terrorist threat to the United States and its Western allies from the region stems not from the illiterate and isolated Pashtuns but from Islamist groups based in urban Punjab, with their far-higher levels of sophistication and their international links, above all to the Pakistani diaspora in the West.

The help of the Pakistani intelligence services to Britain has been vital in identifying the links of these potential terrorists to groups in Pakistan, and to preventing more attacks on the UK and elsewhere in Europe. Islamabad therefore has been only a partial ally in the “war on terror”—but still a critical and irreplaceable one. For we need to remember that in the end, it is only legitimate Muslim governments and security services that can control terrorist plots on their soil. Western pressure may be necessary to push them in the right direction, but we need to be careful that this pressure does not become so overwhelming that it undermines or even destroys those governments by humiliating them in the eyes of their own people.

More threatening by far, however, is that these beliefs and feelings are almost certainly shared by a majority of Pakistani soldiers—who are to some extent insulated from society by military discipline and culture, but who obviously cannot be cut off from the influence of their families. The greatest potential catalyst for a collapse of the Pakistani state is not the Islamist militants themselves, who are in my view far too weak and divided to achieve this (a capacity for murderous terrorism should not be confused with a capacity for successful revolution); it is that actions by the United States will provoke a mutiny of parts of the military. Should that happen, the Pakistani state would collapse very quickly indeed, with all the disasters that this would entail.

Pretty long article if anyone wants to read.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 23 Feb 2011 20:42

^^^ Anatole Lieven's article above:

"Once the current regime fell, it would be impossible to put it back together again because India would almost certainly make it its business to prevent Pakistan’s reconstitution by supporting local ethnic groups in their struggle for continued independence."

If that's the case, then why is India going around saying (and Unkil is pressuring India to do so) " A stable, prosperous Pakistan is in India's best interests"? If that holds true before the fact, then it should also hold true after the fact.

Or is all this GoI talk "chankyanness"?

sum · Post by **sum** » 23 Feb 2011 20:52

Even Pakistan's spies say they had no idea what Davis was doing in Lahore.

A senior intelligence source told The Daily Telegraph he was unknown to Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence directorate and was operating outside the normal agreements between the two countries.

So much for the all-seeing, omnipresent super-duper ISI....

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 23 Feb 2011 20:55

Rahat Fateh returns to Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani Singer Rahat Fateh Ali Khan returned home on Wednesday after paying a penalty of three million Indian rupees.

The singer was allowed to travel to Pakistan after completion of investigation into customs laws violation and payment of fine.

On his arrival at the Benazir Bhutto airport in Islamabad, the Khan maintained that the money obtained from him was confiscated over ignorance about customs laws and criminal charges were not filed against him.

He said, throughout the ordeal Pakistani authorities, especially Interior Minister Rehman Malik and the Pakistani High Commission were very forthcoming in providing him help.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2011 20:55

Western agencies don't have the sense of entitlement prevalent in Indian agencies who think its a govt job onlee and not about national security. The best person for the job appointed by the political leadership is accepted. In India they give them the run around and second guess them.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2011 20:57

lahore va Kuwait and all that!

Nightwatch 22 Feb 2011

Pakistan: The Gilani government has requested an extension of the 24 February deadline for meeting opposition political demands, according to the Daily Times. The government has complied with about half of the demands posed by Nawaz Sharif, as head of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

Comment: Readers will recall that in the first week of January the Gilani government was in danger of falling owing to opposition defections. To avert a call for early elections by Nawaz Sharif, Gilani agreed to his ten point agenda for economic reforms, such as cleaning up corruption and lowering energy and commodity prices, in the 45 day deadline contained in the PML-N ultimatum.

The threat of elections persists because the government has not complied. News services in Pakistan have not speculated about the PML-N's response, but no sense of political crisis is apparent. On the other hand, the survival of the Gilani government is tenuous because of its poor performance. Pakistanis do not need social media to gather for large and violent riots, but will not want to be upstaged by Arabs.

Read this with Anatole Leiven 's article. Anatole ,monitors Pakjab very very well.

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 23 Feb 2011 20:59

GOI cannot cause the pakis to disintegrate but if we hit the jackpot then GOI will make sure the 100 pieces are not sewn back together by west. So as long as that jarasandha is together GOI says it is in its interest that it stays together but once the cracks surface we need to widen them to breaking point hope we have a good leader at helm when the time comes. No gujaral or morarji desai is all I ask.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Feb 2011 21:23

Brad Goodman wrote:A Mutiny Grows in Punjab

Good article. I love it and must archive it.

But he makes a rather funny joke:

http://nationalinterest.org/article/mut ... 889?page=2

but a more immediate threat is that a fraying of the Pakistani military would lead to enormous quantities of conventional munitions (including antiaircraft missiles) and large numbers of trained technicians and engineers making their way into the terrorist camp. This would enormously increase the terrorist danger to the West, even if the Pakistani military as a whole held together.

I can't for the life of me figure this out? How would all this be a threat to the West? Pakistan's arms are hardly a threat to India - and they have actually had to receive arms aid which is widely believed to be more or less useless against India. A few JDAMs and some badass A-10s and all l this would be pulped in short order.

Another joke:

http://nationalinterest.org/article/mut ... 889?page=4

China, which on the one hand fears the Taliban

Has Lieven gone mad? Never underestimate China. China is only pretending.Why should the second most powerful country in the world "fear" the ragtag Taliban?

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 23 Feb 2011 21:25

Already some buying-selling is going on hinting at an election latest by November.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2011 21:32

Shiv, the biggest joke in the article is the title.
Pakjab is Pakistan. So how can they mutiny? Against themselves? Or their Wastern controllers?

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 23 Feb 2011 21:47

Brad Goodman:

Thanks for posting that commentary by Lieven. I have not yet read the entire article, but from the exceprts posted, it seems he makes a lot of reference to the threat faced by west should TSPA collapse, and he urges US not to push too hard. Does he talk anywhere about the threat TSP poses to India. Or by saying US should not push TSP too hard, is he subtly hinting that TSP terror against India must be taken off the table as US pushes TSP?

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 23 Feb 2011 21:49

Lieven is a peddler of snake-oil.He does not want a strong Afghan army because the state there is weak.Not a word about Paki sanctuary to Taliban,the moderate pashtun elements opposed to Taliban,its brutal Islamism.Powerful elements in West are worried about the Paki army turning against their western controllers.

The bas$%%^^ is worried about terror threat to West but believes SDRes have to put up with Terror Central as the natural order of things.He wants US to mediate with Taliban through Pakis and what about the non-pashtuns?Presumably left to the mercy of Porkis?

The goras hatred for Sanatana Dharma shines through.Hinduism has to be at the receiving end.It is to be shackled and rolled back.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Feb 2011 21:55

svenkat wrote:
The bas$%%^^ is worried about terror threat to West but believes SDRes have to put up with Terror Central as the natural order of things.

And, in supporting terror central it is OK for the US to supply some arms to Pakistan because they make little difference to India.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2011 22:47

Anatole Leiven is against Blackwill Plan B. He concludes just as Late K Subrahamanyam garu wrote that it will lead to TSP fracture. He wants to preserve TSP and hence advocates against Blackwill Plan B.
Along the way he writes many minor lies to bloster his case. He confuses Ghilzai Pahstuns with all Afghans.
The big mistake is the fear of mutiny by a segment of the TSP Army.
First of all such a takeover is not a mutiny but the gradual transformation of the TSP Army set in pace before Zia ul Haq by Z.A. Bhutoo under the Nazariya-e-Pakistan.

Second of all, such a takeover by the extremist wing (Salafist) will be pre-empted by the mainstream group in order to protect the primacy of the Deobandi line of sub-continental Islam and retain control of nukes..

Thirdly he misreads Pakjabi civil society.

Badmash's big mistake was making Mushy, a mohajir from Ganga-Jamuna belt, the chief superceding six more suitable officers. Why he did this is still sub-rosa. It was Mushy who started Kargil and then informed Badmash. This led to the worsening of Indo-Pak relations and worse the loss of face for the ruling group.

The current problems are due to US insistence of Zardari (replacement for his wife BB) who doesn't represent Pakjabi self determination.

Will take up in Pak failure thread.

ManuT · Post by **ManuT** » 23 Feb 2011 22:53

The RD affair should be the third body blow to thr CIA in the af-pak region by the alQaida-Taliban-ISI-TSPA combine.

The first and second one being the jordanian suicide bomber that killed 9 CIA operatives (that was their A Team) and the outing of the CIA station chief earlier. (wiki-leaks being incidental). It keeps CIA weak in the AfPak region.

I am tending to believe at this point that RD killed the duo who were trying to rob him and was a happenstance.

There were no such propels wrt the main accused in WTC bomber in 1994 that was captured in TSP by the CIA. Why the issue with someone who holds diplomatic immunity,
when TSP itself invoked it when a TSP diplomat was caught with RDX (mentioned on BRF sometime back) in Nepal in the case of Indian Airlines flight IC-814 in 1999?

Which leads me to believe RD has less than a diplomatic cover and the Americans are being squeezed in this case. But the main point is, ISI is keeping CIA disrupted in the meantime.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 23 Feb 2011 23:17

svenkat wrote: The goras hatred for Sanatana Dharma shines through.Hinduism has to be at the receiving end.It is to be shackled and rolled back.

Not just the goras. Hatred may be too strong a term to describe MMS's attitude, but his sudden bringing up of "saffron terror" to white wash TSP crimes tells you where he stands regarding Hinduism. Also, as the PM of India, I haven't seen him advocate India's Hindu civilizational links for example to Afganisthan as India is being muscled out by US/TSP combine. All I have seen from him is some "South Asian" nonsense, which basicallly involves India whitewashing TSP's crimes as MMS has done, and India making concessions to TSP even to its own detriment, which once again MMS is not loathe to, as the agreement he struck with terrorist Mush on Kashmir shows; all of which fits in very well with the gora scheme of things.

tejas · Post by **tejas** » 23 Feb 2011 23:22

Being a visceral Anglophobe, I reflexively look to get nauseas when reading an article about IndiaPakistan by a Brit. That being said, I stopped reading this drivel as soon as the author stated keeping Pakistan intact was in the best interests of every American man, woman and child.

If keeping the West safe from Poaki terrorism is the goal (putting aside the safety of non-white, non-christians who don't count) than how can keeping the Poak army-ISI nexus intact be in any civilized nation's interest? At least the Brits inexplicable love of the Poaks has finally started to have the blowback they deserve. The Muslim population in the UQ is mushrooming and the transformation of British society is well underway. Couldn't happen to a more deserving country. Karma is indeed a biatch

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 24 Feb 2011 00:51

ramana wrote:Shiv, the biggest joke in the article is the title.
Pakjab is Pakistan. So how can they mutiny? Against themselves? Or their Wastern controllers?

I think it can, saar.

In it's creation the men who made Pakistan rejected and mutinied against their Indic roots. A few years later, the zamindars and the army rejected and mutinied against their political leadership. Next it was a rejection of and mutiny against the all-inclusive concept of who is a Muslim (i.e. the ahmadiyya). Come to the 60s and they rejected the 'dirty Bangalis' to their east (who then proceeded to mutiny against them).

In the 70s and 70s - Bhutto and Zia - they began to turn inwards and further rejected any other kind of 'Muslimhood' apart from their own. This is the deepest cut yet.

Saar, the core Pakjabi psyche - man, group or institution - is founded on rejection and mutiny. Be it the Aptool who tried to blow up Times Square, or the chain smoking modern General. They all carry the virus, and it almost always becomes full blown.

This current decade of shenanigans is just the Pakjabis looking inwards and violently disagreeing with anyone who does share their interior landscape. Which is almost everyone else around them, and happily for the rest of us, many a time it is the people in their near vicinity.

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 24 Feb 2011 02:00

Praveen Swami sheds more light:

US pawn ensnared in Pakistan's power politics

Late on the morning of January 25, a senior CIA officer stationed in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, was scheduled to meet an informant near the busy Qurtada square in Lahore. Mr Davis, a former special forces officer hired by the CIA from a private security contractor based in Florida, was part of her security detail. He was tasked with making sure the area was safe for her arrival and positioning himself to respond if things went wrong. Sure enough, they did.

US officials suspect that the Ali brothers, who police say had a record of involvement in theft, had been put to work by the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, Pakistan’s feared intelligence service. The ISI has long been fuming over the CIA’s aggressive efforts to penetrate jihadist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba – but the CIA’s Islamabad station hadn’t listened.

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 24 Feb 2011 02:55

Once again, it is all same-same. Which is that every fourth day of every week of every month, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the mighty US military, has a compulsive need to meet and maalish the Terrorist-in-Chief Kayani.

U.S., Pakistan military chiefs hold secret talks in Oman

...a closely guarded conference room in which Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Gen. David Petraeus, commander of International Security Assistance Force; Adm. Eric Olson, commander of U.S. Special Operations Command; and Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis, commander of U.S. Central Command, met with Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Pakistan’s chief of army staff, and Maj. Gen. Javed Iqbal, director general of military operations.

“I was very grateful for General Kayani’s time and the opportunity to continue the dialogue and the relationship at this very critical time in the effort,” Mullen told reporters traveling with him.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Feb 2011 02:57

No eye yes eye? And Maj Gen Javed Iqbal means they are looking at N Waziristan operations?

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 24 Feb 2011 03:56

Pakistan's intelligence ready to split with CIA

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – Pakistan's ISI spy agency is ready to split with the CIA because of frustration over what it calls heavy-handed pressure and its anger over what it believes is a covert U.S. operation involving hundreds of contract spies, according to an internal document obtained by The Associated Press and interviews with U.S. and Pakistani officials.
...
...
"Post-incident conduct of the CIA has virtually put the partnership into question," said a media statement prepared by the ISI but never released. A copy was obtained this week by the AP.

The statement accused the CIA of using pressure tactics to free Davis.

"It is hard to predict if the relationship will ever reach the level at which it was prior to the Davis episode," the statement said. "The onus of not stalling this relationship between the two agencies now squarely lies on the CIA."

The ISI fears there are hundreds of CIA contracted spies operating in Pakistan without the knowledge of either the Pakistan government or the intelligence agency, a senior Pakistani intelligence official told the AP in an interview. He spoke only on condition he not be identified on grounds that exposure would compromise his security.
...
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The CIA repeatedly has tried to penetrate the ISI and learn more about Pakistan's nuclear program. The ISI has mounted its own operations to gather intelligence on the CIA's counterterrorism activities

The ISI is now scouring thousands of visas issued to U.S. employees in Pakistan. The ISI official said Davis' visa application contains bogus references and phone numbers. He said thousands of visas were issued to U.S. Embassy employees over the past five months following a government directive to the Pakistan Embassy in Washington to issue visas without the usual vetting by the interior ministry and the ISI. The same directive was issued to the Pakistan embassies in Britain and the United Arab Emirates, he said.

Within two days of receiving that directive, the Pakistani Embassy issued 400 visas and since then thousands more have been issued, said the ISI official. A Western diplomat in Pakistan agreed that a "floodgate" opened for U.S. Embassy employees requesting Pakistani visas.
...
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The ISI official said his agency knows and works with "the bona fide CIA people in Pakistan" but is upset that the CIA would send others over behind its back. For now, he said, his agency is not talking with the CIA at any level, including the most senior.

To regain support and assistance, he said, "they have to start showing respect, not belittling us, not being belligerent to us, not treating us like we are their lackeys."
...

The ISI official said Pakistan is fed up with Washington's complaints, and he accused the CIA of planting stories about ISI assistance to the Haqqani network.

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The spy agencies have overcome lows before. During President George W. Bush's first term, the ISI became enraged after it shared intelligence with the United States, only to learn that the then-CIA station chief passed that information to the British. The incident caused a serious row, one that threatened the CIA's relationship with the ISI and deepened the levels of distrust between the two sides. At the time Pakistan almost threw the CIA station chief out of the country.
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ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Feb 2011 04:05

So MMS was right in saying bring it on w.r.t. to Sharm-el-Sheik declaration!

That should have tipped of both the groups to be more discreet as they cant blame Indians.

Ravi Karumanchiri · Post by **Ravi Karumanchiri** » 24 Feb 2011 06:00

I am beginning to think the TSP is overplaying its hand, perhaps fatally so. With all of the fast-moving, partially hidden, interconnected parts to the grotesque machine that is the US-TSP ‘partnership’; I think the Pakistanis are failing to consider the dangers of effing with an ambitious American President entering a re-election cycle. In truth, few creatures on this earth are as dangerous.

Obama definitely has plans for his second term, and I don’t think he’s keen to risk everything on the TSP. What Obama cannot tolerate is being made to look weak in the eyes of the American public. The sensibilities of the Pakistani public aren’t very high on his list, you can bet on that, and whatever pause in drone strikes there now is, is tactical, and temporary – I’ll bet. Believe me, Obama is no Carter.

If Davis hangs, Obama will have to respond forcefully, and given the mood of the American public towards the TSP, Obama might just surprise everyone and move back the front line in the GWOT. Remember, America now has transit through Russia and the CAS via rail to resupply their war machine (if I’m not mistaken). More importantly, Americans reflexively rally behind their President in times of war, and winning re-election is definitely on Obama’s agenda. (Although, I should add; since war has become the ‘new normal’, with high unemployment to boot, and maybe also since the US President came in a darker shade; this truism may not hold as firm as it did for Bush 43.) Lastly, never underestimate the power of the American mil-industrial complex to get a shooting war through the US Congress and Senate – it might just be the ticket to (temporarily) “fix” the economy and win 2012 in the same stroke. (Also, Iran seems off the agenda for the Americans, so the TSP may just become 'Plan B' in their stead.)

Alternatively, if Davis is freed, it could weaken Zardari to the point where Sharif has a chance at the “top job”, administering over an even angrier and more Anti-American TSP than currently exists, if that’s possible (and somehow I think it is). If things go too far in this direction… it could be just as ugly, in the same way as if Davis were to hang.

I can’t figure out if Sharif at the helm would present a material shift in the dynamic sufficient to slide everything out of the frying pan and into the fire (since the real top job is Kiyani’s). I’d be curious to read the BRF brain trust’s opinions on this in particular. What would be the ramifications if Sharif replaces Zardari? Is this possible? If not Sharif, then who? Then what?

To wit: Along what kind of a timeline can we expect Davis’ fate to be determined? How slow/fast is Pakistani justice likely to be?

Comments?
Thanks in advance!

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 24 Feb 2011 06:06

jrjrao wrote:Once again, it is all same-same. Which is that every fourth day of every week of every month, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the mighty US military, has a compulsive need to meet and maalish the Terrorist-in-Chief Kayani.

U.S., Pakistan military chiefs hold secret talks in Oman

This is exactly why India should hold back until other parties play their hand ... Amreekis want to preserve their munna, as Anatol Levien points out.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Feb 2011 06:32

If nothing else, Anatol Lieven's article clearly spells out the American thought that Pakistan - with its current shape should be preserved and protected even if it means a downhill ski and loss of echandee for the USA.

It also spells out clearly that this "current shape" of Pakistan is accepted only by Pakjabis and not be Pashtuns, Bauchis or others who see Pakjab as dominators. Lieven is essentially saying that Pakjab dominates in all ways and Pakjab's viewpoint should be protected by America because 65% of people, 75% of armed forces and most of Paklands industrial output comes from Pakjab. Lieven is not worried about the representation or rights of the remaining of 35% of Pakis. It's not his to worry about.

Pakistan is a colony of Pakjab and the US should support Pakjab dominate Pakistan both against India and other forces that are putting Pakjab under pressure.

But Lieven waffles when it comes to what should be done. he speaks of "stabilizing" southern Afghanistan by talks with the Taliban and a US pullout. Fine. Does that mean that the "Taliban" and the Pakjabi army will respect the Durand line?. For Pakistan the Durand line has meaning only as long as people across the border seek to come into Pakistan. For the Paki army that line dos not exists and the Paki army wants to dominate areas across that line.

Pakjabistan wants control over the Pasthun lands as a way of stabilizing their own NWFP/Pakhtunkhwa. They will ruthlessly fight and decimate any tribal opposition and support Haqqani, Maqqani, Laqqani, Fukkani - or any -ani who will support the Paki army.

What Lieven is talking about is a return to the halcyon days before 9-11when Pakjabistani army could do what it liked in Afghanistan but did not attack the west. The fatal flaw as I see it in Lieven's analysis is also the same fatal flaw in US policy. The US is bribing the Pakjabi army not to hit the west because the Pakistani army says to the US is "We are too poor and ill armed to control the Taliban. You stopped paying us, an they attacked the West. You pay us and arm us and we will stop them" So the Pakistani army is paid and armed to control the Taliban and the Taliban is not controlled. Now the Pakistani army says "We will fail and all our arms will go to the Taliban" - and the likes of Lieven are asking "What to do now?"

Of course the US would probably like to make peace with the Taliban separately. But there is almost no "separate Taliban" to make peace with. The Taliban are a fractured bunch organized by the CIA-ISI combine in the cold war and by the ISI/Pak army recently. Those who oppose the Paki army are hit hard (I am colecting video clips of that) and those who support Pakistan are paid with US money and arms via the Pakistani army.

The US is in a fix.

I still think that the US must first stop supplying arms to Pakistan and stop maintenance support for those arms. Pakistan can certainly get arms from China so why add to that? US influence is not working and has not worked well for years and is gradually spinning out of control visibly even as the CIA and the Bush administration painted a rosy picture of Pakistan's cooperation and their success. And those stories echoed in the world media including BR where we all sat up and rah rah rahed the US's great power in controlling Pakistan and we wrung our hands in despair asking why a weak India could not "control" Pakistan. What a laugh!

The US has backed the same horse in Asia -i.e Pakistan, for decades. Despite all the hype about freedom and democracy the US has always ignored freedom and democracy among its allies and encouraged that among its enemies. But the "tribals" who were easily controlled by military action in the British era and the immediate post colonial era have now morphed into the Taliban and in recent years only those people who cooperate with the Taliban get their work done. The only war that the US's alliance with Pakistan won them was the anti-Sovet war which was won by Taliban fighters backed bu US arms, intelligence, US and Saudi money and Pakistan army cooperation. Anatole Lieven is talking shit when he says the Taliban bombs are less sophisticated than Iraqi bombs and that they would become more sophisticated if the Paki military helped them. If "sophistication" won wars then the US should be leader of the world. Should be.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Feb 2011 06:55

Ravi Karumanchiri wrote:I think the Pakistanis are failing to consider the dangers of effing with an ambitious American President entering a re-election cycle. In truth, few creatures on this earth are as dangerous.

Ravi - with respect - I mean no personal offence. I merely want to point out a curious fact. American power and confidence in American power are spoken of in glowing terms only by people who live in America because it is most visible to them over there in the American mainland and they are given to believe that it is global.

That impression is actually bullsh1t. For people living far away from America the fraying edges of American power are all too clear. Millions of young people are now gaining positions of power and responsibility in the world after having shaken off American power and having seen it off effectively. The loss of Hong Kong's control from the hands of a US lackey, the spinning out of control of NoKo, the loss of Vietnam, the splitting of ally Pakistan into Bangladesh despite US support, the loss of influence in Iran, the stalemate in Afghanistan and the inability to control Pakistan are signs of a struggling, waning power that is making more mistakes than it can handle even though it has its own citizens and residents hoodwinked and mesmerized with myths about its own capabilities. Any Pakistani in his mid 60s today has dealt with, as an adult, US presidential elections ranging from Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Reagan, Bush Sr, Clinton, Clinton, Bush Jr, Bush Jr and Ombaba. So all this mythmaking about dangerous Americans running for election is just that - a myth. Only people in the US are required to believe it and as long as they do they will elect the man. To the man who gets elected American impotence abroad needs merely to be hidden and passed off as strength. In the end US politcians lie just like their Indian counterparts.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 24 Feb 2011 07:00

Eye-ass-Eye certainly needs a new creative director ! Pedantic perfidious antics like these are so naive and Benis dhaaga material!

FAISALABAD: Three men forcibly gave poison on Wednesday night to maternal uncle of Shumaila, who had committed suicide after the murder of her husband, Faheem, by US national Raymond Davis.

Sarwar was residing with his family, including Shumaila’s mother and brother Afzal, in Chak 189-JB, Rasoolpura, Nethari, in the precincts of Chak Jhumrah police station.

According to sources, two motorcyclists had warned Sarwar on Feb 11 not to pursue the case registered against Raymond Davis. After the incident, the police had provided them security.

Afzal, another uncle of Shumaila, told Dawn that three men entered the house through a ventilator, grasped Sarwar and subjected him to severe torture.

Afzal claimed that they administered him poisonous pills, citing the recovery of one tablet from the spot.

He said the men remained in the house for about half an hour and fled when other family members woke up. Sarwar was taken to hospital by Rescue 1122.

A police official said that condition of Sarwar was stable. He said that a permanent security camp would be set up outside the house of Sarwar.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 24 Feb 2011 07:02

Ravi Karumanchiri wrote:I am beginning to think the TSP is overplaying its hand, perhaps fatally so. With all of the fast-moving, partially hidden, interconnected parts to the grotesque machine that is the US-TSP ‘partnership’; I think the Pakistanis are failing to consider the dangers of effing with an ambitious American President entering a re-election cycle. In truth, few creatures on this earth are as dangerous.

Obama definitely has plans for his second term, and I don’t think he’s keen to risk everything on the TSP. What Obama cannot tolerate is being made to look weak in the eyes of the American public. The sensibilities of the Pakistani public aren’t very high on his list, you can bet on that, and whatever pause in drone strikes there now is, is tactical, and temporary – I’ll bet. Believe me, Obama is no Carter.

If Davis hangs, Obama will have to respond forcefully, and given the mood of the American public towards the TSP, Obama might just surprise everyone and move back the front line in the GWOT. Remember, America now has transit through Russia and the CAS via rail to resupply their war machine (if I’m not mistaken). More importantly, Americans reflexively rally behind their President in times of war, and winning re-election is definitely on Obama’s agenda. (Although, I should add; since war has become the ‘new normal’, with high unemployment to boot, and maybe also since the US President came in a darker shade; this truism may not hold as firm as it did for Bush 43.) Lastly, never underestimate the power of the American mil-industrial complex to get a shooting war through the US Congress and Senate – it might just be the ticket to (temporarily) “fix” the economy and win 2012 in the same stroke. (Also, Iran seems off the agenda for the Americans, so the TSP may just become 'Plan B' in their stead.)

Alternatively, if Davis is freed, it could weaken Zardari to the point where Sharif has a chance at the “top job”, administering over an even angrier and more Anti-American TSP than currently exists, if that’s possible (and somehow I think it is). If things go too far in this direction… it could be just as ugly, in the same way as if Davis were to hang.

I can’t figure out if Sharif at the helm would present a material shift in the dynamic sufficient to slide everything out of the frying pan and into the fire (since the real top job is Kiyani’s). I’d be curious to read the BRF brain trust’s opinions on this in particular. What would be the ramifications if Sharif replaces Zardari? Is this possible? If not Sharif, then who? Then what?

To wit: Along what kind of a timeline can we expect Davis’ fate to be determined? How slow/fast is Pakistani justice likely to be?

Comments?
Thanks in advance!

If Pakis are truly pressured then they will buckle, they are expert downhill skier. But Obama is a closet Pakistani, he will use more American taxpayer dollers to buy his way out in Af-Pak.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Feb 2011 07:20

Ravi Karumanchiri wrote: To wit: Along what kind of a timeline can we expect Davis’ fate to be determined? How slow/fast is Pakistani justice likely to be?

What is Pakistani justice?

But this question good poll material.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 24 Feb 2011 07:22

Excellent Posts, Shiv garu !

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 24 Feb 2011 07:24

Kurram: sacrificed at the global jihad altar —Dr Mohammad Taqi

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 24 Feb 2011 07:35

Pakistan lags behind India only because of a lack of education facilities

Punjab CM Shahbaz Sharif said in his speech at the 74th convocation of Kinnaird College for Women University at its Perin Boga Amphitheatre on Tuesday night. Dr Alexander John Malik, the bishop of Lahore and chairman of the KCWU Board of Governors, presided over the ceremony. He said KCWU had shown it was the best college for girls. “That’s why parents turn to KCWU to find their daughters-in-law and organisations look here for future leaders, PhDs and researchers.”

The crowded venue also meant that the graduating students could not walk up to the stage to receive their degrees. Instead, their names were announced and they stood at their seats. Many students left afterwards, before the chief minister’s speech.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Feb 2011 07:39

shiv wrote:American power and confidence in American power are spoken of in glowing terms only by people who live in America because it is most visible to them over there in the American mainland and they are given to believe that it is global.

That impression is actually bullsh1t. For people living far away from America the fraying edges of American power are all too clear.

Truer words were never spoken.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Feb 2011 07:45

ramana wrote:No eye yes eye? And Maj Gen Javed Iqbal means they are looking at N Waziristan operations?

Yeah, the Americans plead with the PA to start the North Waziristan operation and Kayani & Co cite umpteen reasons why this is not the best of time to do so. They break up on the premise that the PA knows best. They go back to their respective locations, claim their per diem and wait for the next meeting. Routine stuff.