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Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 22 Jun 2016 18:31
by UlanBatori
shiv wrote:
habal wrote:1 tata truck tanker is 17,000 litres, so roughly 5 trucks can do the needful.
oops yes.Imagine. I typed 1000 instead of 10 x 9000 liter tankers! Talk about madarsa math
:oops:
OTOH, they are extremely fuel efficient in their normal state, which is to stay parked with mijjiles all pointing in same drooped direction, probably towards Tel Aviv. May be cardboard mockups too. So one has to applaud the US mil-ind complex. What used to be hundreds or thousands of Soviet-built tanks/mockups are now American-built mockups.

On this thwarted thrust by the SAA, it does look rather tragic for the SAA, BUT... what it has done is to make the ISIS come out in droves, right under Gen. Vodkov's gaze. At the cost of the soldiers killed and wounded, and using a very rapid and logistically unsupported race across territory, initially unprotected by CAS, Gen. Vodkov may have goaded the ISIS to commit a large error. Let's see. Why the initial lack of CAS? Sandstorm? Surely ISIS would have sensed a trap?

So far ISIS was just skirmishing and generally staying away from direct attack in Syria because of Gen. Vodkov's merry band. But here ISIS HAD to attack because the rapid thrust was going to cut off their supply lines, hain? I wonder how much was "poor planning" and how much was "harsh realities of total war". Hope the Russians are right in saying that the force was able to withdraw in decent order without much losses.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 22 Jun 2016 18:39
by Singha
the russians were with the artillery units, probably attached to the 555 regiment.

Image

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 22 Jun 2016 18:43
by habal
lo isis ki shalwar geeli ho gayi ..

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 22 Jun 2016 18:44
by Singha
now the turks and ypg have made up , to deal with a bigger enemy.

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 1h1 hour ago
pt #Turkey's decision to accept Manbij op was made quickly in order to ease #IS pressure on Mare' which at that time was cut off from Azaz

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 2h2 hours ago
pt 'Apo' Ocalan would be transferred from Imralı in order to re-open dialogue regarding the 'Kurdish question'

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 2h2 hours ago
pt #Turkey agreed to #YPG to attack west Euphrates & Manbij if PKK agreed to stop its attacks in south-east & around Diyarbakir


Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 2h2 hours ago
pt The force attacking #Manbij numbers 4,000 & 1,500 are Arabs while the majority are Kurds

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 2h2 hours ago
pt There was a meeting in Incirlik Airbase between #Turkey & #SDF commanders in Faisal Abu Leyla was present

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 2h2 hours ago
143 #IS militants were killed by #SDF in a failed counter to break siege on #Manbij

1,200 IS militants killed since start of offensive

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 22 Jun 2016 18:44
by Singha
SDF have crept up to the grain silos on edge of manbij town

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 22 Jun 2016 18:47
by Singha
I think the syrian tankers have lost the skill of shooting at move on move targets which the T90s they have should be capable of.
thats the best way to deal with VBIED because a tank HEAT round takes only 1 second to cover 1 km vs several seconds of a ATGM which is next best choice. a tank can continue to reposition and pump out rounds against multiple VBIEDs and is itself much better protected due to NBC overpressure system and armour.

A T72 is also easily capable of hitting a vbied which is moving, while remaining stationary..thats how tank t72 regiments train, they will move in groups, stop and fire and then move again.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 22 Jun 2016 18:59
by Singha
Putting a brave face on it...blaming others..
They had plenty of hw onsite to fight and rout the orcs but failure of leadership

SAA Reporter retweeted
Ibrahim Joudeh
2h2 hours ago
Ibrahim Joudeh ‏@Ibra_Joudeh
#Raqqa offensive failed mainly cause Russia , #Russia didn't give any air support the whole period of the offensive,its not #SAA to blame

SAA Reporter ‏@Syria_Protector
#ISIS captures empty areas, all news about gaining new positions is BS, #SAA troops are in #Ithriya since yesterday

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 22 Jun 2016 21:35
by Singha
tabqah - first video from yesterday from a russian journalist. its hard to make out where exactly the targets are and the SAA units themselves seem very thin on ground without any semblance of proper deployment and mutual cover...just a armed horde parked here and there.
a SP gun blazes away but seems to catch fire after every round, with the gunners throwing sand on something, but a second fire leaves one man perched on top totally cool about it. strange are the ways of desert fighters...



a "proper" ODS type advance across the desert will need
- tanks at the corners and front of a moving box
- more tanks & IFVs & trucks in the middle , with the fuel tankers
- scout units outside the box , along with helicopter observers
- cover from SP artillery in the back somewhere but in range
- periodic repositioning of static tube artillery and MLRS units to keep things in range

those egyptian abrams tanks in proper hands, along with supporting IFVs fielding 20mm cannons and ATGMs would have taken on and run roughshod over this daesh swarm of VBIEDs that led to the panic and wild retreat

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 22 Jun 2016 21:41
by Gyan
Singha wrote:I think the syrian tankers have lost the skill of shooting at move on move targets which the T90s they have should be capable of.
thats the best way to deal with VBIED because a tank HEAT round takes only 1 second to cover 1 km vs several seconds of a ATGM which is next best choice. a tank can continue to reposition and pump out rounds against multiple VBIEDs and is itself much better protected due to NBC overpressure system and armour.

A T72 is also easily capable of hitting a vbied which is moving, while remaining stationary..thats how tank t72 regiments train, they will move in groups, stop and fire and then move again.
Takes around ten seconds to reload, aim and fire the next round.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 22 Jun 2016 23:58
by chetak
Daniel Pipes‏@DanielPipes

Jaw-dropping scandal unfolding in #Turkey as #Erdoğan's college diploma appears forged, means he can't be president:

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina ... 6099125758

RETWEETS 282 LIKES 124
Is Erdogan's university diploma forged?

Questions about the legitimacy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's university diploma have been simmering for a while and now have the potential to become a major issue.
Summary Print Allegations regarding the authenticity of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's diploma, and therefore his position, are gaining substance.
Author Cengiz ÇandarPosted June 15, 2016
Erdogan went to an imam-hatip school, a high school-level institution that educates religious preachers. During the 1970s and 1980s, graduates of those schools could pursue their higher education only in theology. Erdogan, however, was thought to have graduated from Marmara University’s Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences; to have registered there, he would have needed a certificate to prove he was also educated at a school other than an imam-hatip school.

There starts the scrutiny of Erdogan's diplomas, or rather, whether he has valid documents to prove he is eligible to be president.

The latest allegation is that he doesn't have a valid university diploma. If true, it would have enormous consequences because, according to the Turkish Constitution, the president should be an alumnus of a university or an institution of higher education. The constitution's Article 101 stipulates that and it is unequivocal.

At first glance, the allegation about Erdogan didn't seem to make a lot of sense, particularly seeing as how Erdogan is now in his second year as president; presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin ruled out any wrongdoing, simply saying that the rumors were ridiculous.

The allegation initially was raised with the Higher Electoral Board by a former judge, Omer Faruk Eminagaoglu, the founding president of the well-known association of judges and prosecutors, YAR-SAV. Members of that group have a reputation for a Kemalist-style ideology and for being affiliated with the opposition, namely the Republican People's Party (CHP). YAR-SAV and its founding president have been widely known for their hostility toward the ruling Justice and Development Party.

That is one reason the allegation didn't attract a lot of attention at first. Yet the former judge was persistent. Though the Higher Electoral Board ultimately rejected Eminagaoglu's appeal, the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) took up the matter.

The board chose to respond to the HDP, perhaps thinking it would silence those who might just be fishing for something to use against the president. The board recently sent the HDP a copy of Erdogan's supposed diploma, the one he presented when he ran in the August 2014 presidential elections.

The HDP duly published that copy on its Twitter account.

With that, the controversy entered its second and probably more interesting and important phase: There are very strong arguments that the document might be forged, and that the college diploma of the president of Turkey might be a fake one.

There are very valid reasons to suspect the document's authenticity, as the copy indicates that Erdogan graduated from the Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences of Marmara University in 1981. At the bottom of the diploma, two signatures can be seen clearly: those of the university president and the dean of faculty.

That is very problematic, indeed. First of all, there was no Marmara University in 1981 and no such faculty under that name. Marmara University was founded in Istanbul in 1982. The faculty took that name and became affiliated with the school in 1983. Previously, it had been a college-level institution known as the Academy of Economic and Commercial Sciences.

So, how is it that Erdogan has a signed and dated university diploma, when there was no university or affiliated faculty under that name then?

That is why the HDP is pursuing the matter.

And from the other end of the political spectrum, anti-Kurdish, arch-Turkish nationalist Gokce Firat has presented detailed arguments that Erdogan's diploma is forged.

If taken seriously, the follow-up to the controversy could create monumental legal questions in Turkey. If it turns out Erdogan was never qualified to be elected president, whatever he has signed or implemented would have to be considered null and void from a purely legal point of view. Politically, it would provide an armory of ammunition to his critics, whose numbers abroad are rapidly increasing.

For example, in Germany, Erdogan recently riled Bundestag (parliament) members of Turkish descent. The Bundestag voted June 2 to recognize as genocide the 1915 Ottoman Turks' slayings of an estimated 1.5 million Armenians. Erdogan's response was to say that Green Party co-chair Cem Ozdemir's "blood should be tested" to verify that he actually is of Turkish descent. Ozdemir led the resolution on the Armenian genocide.

Ozdemir was the first of 11 Bundestag members of Turkish descent to be elected, and Erdogan's statement didn't sit well with the other 10 either. One of them, Sevim Dagdeviren, from the German Left Party, said Erdogan should be banned from entering Germany.

Erdogan's remarks may fall into the category of "racist discourse," which is considered a crime in Germany. I recently had the opportunity to talk to Ozdemir. He did not want to discuss the issue personally, because he does not want it to be interpreted as arising from a vendetta between him and Erdogan. However, there are enough German parliamentarians of ethnic Turkish background — and ethnic German parliamentarians in general — who could bring up an accusation of racism. And if Erdogan's university diploma proves to be a forgery, that would naturally provide ammunition to his international opponents to bring up the argument of whether his title is legitimate.

Raising the issue in Turkey is more difficult because the media is strongly controlled and thus muted to avoid irking the president.

Few people, including myself, took the questions about Erdogan's higher education seriously. It is mind-boggling. But if Erdogan's diploma ends up being a forgery, even Turkey's cowed media will not be able to ignore or avoid the explosive scandal that would result, with all its international dimensions.

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina ... z4CL3tf3Gl

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 00:06
by UlanBatori
No problem here. Diploma copy is not forged. Signatures are not forged. Only the university itself is forged - there was no university at all when the original was supposedly issued. Happens all the time (in Pakistan and Turkey). But the university exists today. IOW, it's parents were not married when Erdogan's diploma was born.
Old definition of a (Erdogan):
Stands around scratching his (golas) as his parents are getting married.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 06:28
by Singha
SAA were unable to put up a fight in zakiyah the western border outpost of raqqa and have now run tail between legs back to Ithriyah where they started from

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 11h11 hours ago
#IS have regained control of al-Zakia junction & al-Zayn hills after #SAA withdraw towards Ithriya

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 06:33
by Singha
3 russians killed by a vbied preceding the retreat
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/is ... est-raqqa/

reports say swarms of vbieds attacked from all directions to intimidate and spread FUD

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 06:35
by Singha
Image

The Syrian Armed Forces withdrew from the Zakiyah Crossroad and SyriaTel Hill on Wednesday, putting an abrupt end to their large-scale offensive to liberate the strategic Tabaqa Military Airport in the west Raqqa countryside. According to an Al-Masdar field source that spoke to the Desert Hawks media correspondent, Eyad Al-Hussein, the Syrian Armed Forces withdrew from the final points in the west Raqqa countryside in order to avoid anymore casualties during this violent battle. With the loss of the Zakiyah Crossroad, the Syrian Armed Forces are back to square one along the Salamiyah-Raqqa Highway; it does not appear that they plan on renewing this offensive anytime soon. The reason for this massive withdrawal in western Raqqa is still not clear; some reporters argue that it was due to the lack of air cover, while others allege that it was poorly planned.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... est-raqqa/ | Al-Masdar News

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 06:37
by Singha
before putting their hand in the hornets nest, they will need to capture the area between the salt lakes up north (khanassir) and Ithriyah and build up solid logistics including a airbase from where helicopters can provide observation and gunfire support.

the palmyra offensive also seems to have run out of steam and is set for a imminent retreat, back to palmyra and T4 .

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 06:39
by Singha
perhaps lick their numerous wounds and sit tight for a couple months while letting SDF do the heavy lifting of taking manbij and spreading some panic in north syria among the faithfool. build manpower and logistics and artillery in the meantime.

russo-american style lightning tank offensives need russo-american style logistics , teeth and manpower - american armour divs are among the most logistics heavy - close to 30,000 people once they shift and tool up for expeditionary deployment.

this is like our babus demanding the performance of a F22, the range of a Flanker, the size of a Tejas, at the cost of Mig21 :oops:

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 06:46
by Singha
might also be a good idea to focus on follow through via palmyra and go for Deir azzor....will reduce the flow of ISIS from south and relieve the besieged city. I think it might not be able to beat back a determined ISIS attack if they concentrate on it and shift resources from raqqa. right now, their B-team zombies are having a go daily because the highways outside the city connecting Raqqa to Iraq are fully in ISIS hands so their logistics train is secure.

eat the biscuit in small bite sized chunks from the outside in. in retrospect , SDF had a far better idea of the bees in the nest and left Raqqa well alone for the time being.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 07:20
by Singha
desultory fighting in palmyra after saa withdrew under pressure in arak and T3. a couple Mi28 shooting at the hills - too little to make any difference

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/vi ... n-palmyra/

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 07:21
by Singha
Ibrahim Joudeh ‏@Ibra_Joudeh 9h9 hours ago
brigadier Hasan Saado 10th division Chief of Staff was martyred today in fight against #ISIS in west #Raqqa

Image

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 07:22
by Singha
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) shelled government troops retreating from areas in southwestern Raqqa with homegrown rockets containing nerve gas, a field reporter confirmed. The Syrian Armed Forces withdrew from areas it controlled during a three-weeks military campaign aimed to recapture the ISIS bastion in al-Raqqa, raising questions about the effectivity of the offensive and the role played by Syria’s staunch ally; namely Russia. A field reporter who was covering the offensive said the retreating troops were bombed with home-produced rockets filled with nerve gas. Dozens of soldiers were injured in the attack. The Syrian Army posed less than 12km to the south of Tabqa Airbase before the weeks-long gains were overturned as ISIS jihadists launched a wide-scale counteroffensive, forcing the troops to retreat. All the troops involved in Raqqa offensive have amassed in Athrya (nearly 100 km to the northeast of Hama). It remains unclear whether the forces will carry on the assault or be redeployed to another battleground.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/is ... ide-raqqa/ | Al-Masdar News

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 08:57
by Singha
vehicle hit by vbied that was carrying the 3 russians
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CllsxCfWMAIz94q.jpg

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 09:16
by TSJones
Singha wrote: - american armour divs are among the most logistics heavy - close to 30,000 people once they shift and tool up for expeditionary deployment.

this is like our babus demanding the performance of a F22, the range of a Flanker, the size of a Tejas, at the cost of Mig21 :oops:
when it absolutely positively has to be done, you crank up the logistics........you don't bring just a knife to a machine gun fight when it gets down to the nut cuttin'. and you want your big brother and hateful mean sister behind you........

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 09:40
by habal
mayoosi kufr hain ..

setbacks will happen in any war, it's how one picks up after that what really matters.

surprising that for a force that comprised of russians, russia was pretty adament about not proving cas for this offensive.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 10:46
by Singha
I dont think the russians were unwilling, just that their limited planes have a hard time getting to and from so far out...and inevitable downtimes etc. dont think they would abandon their men to the wolves...probably ISIS swarmed in and hit the road columns with vbieds at multiple points...leading to comms breakdown...FUD...panic...uncontrolled retreat which was only halted at relative safety of prepared defensive line at Ithriyah where they started from...

and Fencers and Platypus/Flankers are not ideal for this .... Frogfoots, Hinds, armed drones in numbers would be required.

maybe the russian ops room had advised against this rash advance but the syrians were all hung-ho and went ahead just the same , so russi advisers forced to tag along

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 10:49
by Singha
onlee good news for the day is SDF has made some inroads in Manbij and daesh unable to break the siege whether from inside or outside. their attempts to target the qara quzaq and tishreen crossings also beaten back.

earths load of psychopaths has been lightened by some 450 in that area so far.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 11:00
by habal
reports are that isis has used nerve agent in Syriatel hill on units covering the SAA retreat toward Ithriya.
-Official news-

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 11:06
by habal
iranians are the only mards left in middle east after passing away of Saddam ..

Iran's Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani Warns Bahrain to Stay Away from Sheikh or Wait for Overthrow

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950331001402

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 11:16
by habal
syrian army takes control of daesh-held oil well in raqqa

http://en.alalam.ir/news/1830881

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 11:21
by habal
anonymous

Image

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 11:25
by habal
is it just possible the americans sent some of their 'special forces' (merceneries) disguised as isis to wreck vengeance against the russians who were part of the spear into raqqa, as retaliation for bombing their jordan based munnas.

considering the speed of this counter, and undetected by saa/russian drone surveillance, by isis (if true) this could well have been the case

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 11:30
by habal
Hacker [Annonymous] who posts gay p0rn on ISIS accounts urges social media giants to do their part

Published time: 23 Jun, 2016 05:37

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 11:42
by Singha
nerve gas/biological agent type things make headlines but are very difficult to store and use properly and subject to high dispersal...not really war fighting weapons more like terror weapons on civilian populations of cities and terror weapons on financial markets.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 11:55
by habal
there seems to be a conflict of interest between suqqour-al-sahra oilfield militia, as I now call it, and conventional SAA, Russian mitary units. Unless the 4th mechanized of SAA make it to battlefied in any offensive, I will not consider any offensive by SAA seriously hereon.

rest do not seem to have support and logistics tail to make a difference and more importantly the terrorists know that.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 12:12
by Singha
^^ quite true. they can launch raids but cannot hold ground or get into large scale battles..the old "armed horde" thing.

a solitary B52 was photographed today over Manbij. unless russia is able to arrange such long loiter flying artillery, the SAA on current form cannot really defeat the IS/JN mainline units. that lone B52 could sit up there all day without refueling armed with 80 x1000lb LGBs and deliver on a 1-800 call. it also has a LDP and can hit targets at night from high level. a couple such bad boys could have flattened Tabqah end to end.

Putinji needs to ask his Q boys to convert a few blackjacks and bears to meet the new demands of hybrid war.

the 4th mechanised is the palace guard of assad and hence stuck in and around damascus.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 12:27
by habal
4 th mechanized is an assault formation and deployed around aleppo. Col Suheil al hassan commands a small div of this calles 'tiger force' again based in aleppo. The palace guards are republican guards. They are 104/105/106 brigades stationed around damascus and a small detachment around DeZ under Issam Zahreddine.

Putin is perpetually waiting to mold western public opinion. He takes his image in west rather seriously & will act decisively only after brexit vote or waiting for olympics or soccer world cup or some other event he has selected as deadline. Where are the hinds and other helicopters which wefe ubiquitous during last raid, he has packed them in cotton wool it seems.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 12:43
by Lalmohan
nato are currently running a big mil ex in poland... he'll have his eyes on that too

yesterday he made a speech about the west having caused WW2 and how they are causing IS

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 12:52
by habal
russian helis spotted

Russian Air Force Mi-28N "Night Hunter" providing CAS to SAA + allies against daesh in Southeastern Homs Countryside

https://twitter.com/MmaGreen/status/745691497870168064

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 13:18
by Austin
Looks like success of Iraq and Libya is in their mind , Bright Minds !

Yugoslavia Revisited: US Hardliners Want to Bomb Syria Like It's 1999

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 14:09
by Singha
brexit vote is today. so putinji has no more excuses to sit around...unless he is a closet indic leader and can pull n number of excuses for inaction.

why were UK allowed in anyway if they wanted to keep their pound as currency ? same rules should apply. TSP should also be granted EU membership so they may settle and work all over EU with no visa needed.

Re: Levant crisis - III

Posted: 23 Jun 2016 17:52
by Singha
1

Hassan Ridha
3h3 hours ago
Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha
pt Pic of the commander; Mohamad Mansour al-Ma'rouf aka Abo Abdallah al-Jabal
Embedded image


3

8

Hassan Ridha
3h3 hours ago
Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha
pt He was in charge of 'inghimasi' attacks which help the attacking force to break the 1st line of defence


4


Hassan Ridha
3h3 hours ago
Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha
Commander of 'Jaish al-Nusra' in #JN was assassinated after leaving a meeting with other commanders in north #Aleppo countryside