West Asia News and Discussions

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Feb 2010 18:57

The Saudi television ran a half-anhour programme on bilateral relations to pump up the visit which is also considered highly unusual.

Thats Crown Prince Sultan on the right hand side.

By the way, Arab news is running articles every other hour saying the same thing about Indo-Saudi relations. Something is up!

IAF Volleyball teams wins the friendly Volleyball Match Series between Royal Air Force Oman (RAFO) and Indian Air Force (IAF)

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Mar 2010 00:47

Kingdom’s ‘look East’ policy has a new meaning for India
http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/article23626.ece

New Delhi expects good relations and an uninterrupted flow of oil to fuel its growth. But enhancing its influence in the Gulf, particularly in Saudi Arabia, can provide India with not just energy security but with a diplomatic gateway to the broader Middle East as well. Yet despite the importance of the situation, India’s diplomatic presence in the Gulf is not up to the mark.“The visit of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Riyadh creates an opportunity and provides a road map on how to boost Indian presence on political and diplomatic fronts in this region,” said Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Talmiz Ahmad in a recent interview with Arab News.Ahmad said that New Delhi and Riyadh share common approaches on several regional and international issues and India should maintain an engagement to enhance the security of the region including Afghanistan. The remarks made by Ahmad are significant keeping in view the Kingdom’s “Look East” policy, which has now a new meaning for India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
Saudi Arabia has supported granting observer status to India in the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and has expanded its cooperation with India to fight terrorism,” said Saudi Ambassador to India Faisal H. Trad, who is currently in Riyadh

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 Mar 2010 04:36

RIYADH DECLARATION

Long press release by PTI. All topics that were discussed etc and what they have agreed.

A New Era of Strategic Partnership
A key line in the article. India will now be the new protector of the Kingdom in addition to the US.

KSA FM - HH Prince Saud al Faisal quote - "His parting shot came as a pleasant surprise to the journalists. “Why don’t you people come here without political leaders? All your organisations are well known here. Namaste,” he said.

LOL!

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Mar 2010 04:55

Is this the beginning of new era and dawning of new wisdom on GOi to finally play the IM card right and hammer another nail in Pakistaniat Coffin?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 Mar 2010 06:57

I was just listening to Al waleed interview that took place last month. My readings tell me that He has reportedly as of last week been sitting in meetings with king abdullah. I think this KSA govt is more pragmatic.
He states that the US is down but not out. My view: I think that the fact that US can't deal with Iran means that India is being asked to be a security partner and provide them with an insurance policy. In return for what exactly is the question...

arun · Post by **arun** » 01 Mar 2010 10:28

Prem wrote:Kingdom’s ‘look East’ policy has a new meaning for India
http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/article23626.ece

From the linked article:

“Saudi Arabia has supported granting observer status to India in the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and has expanded its cooperation with India to fight terrorism,” said Saudi Ambassador to India Faisal H. Trad, who is currently in Riyadh.

Granting that India accepting “Observer Status” Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) is going to create a whole lot of takleef to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, I am not sure of the appropriateness of a secular nation like India belonging to a communal organisation like the OIC.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 01 Mar 2010 11:34

The reason I think KSA is moving somewhat favorable towards India is this = this guy Obama is a twin edged sword. The Bush wallas were very different - anti-Muslim by instinct but perfectly happy to have a family controlling KSA, paying off Mullahs to make the state fanatic and keep Abduls drugged with opium of religion so they dont riot, provided oil and oil money keeps flowing...

With Obama, he is pro-Islam but also his actions, if ever happens, can unleash forces that can sweep 15th century forces like royal family to junkyard of history...for instance, leaving Iraq means it will become democratic with strong Islamic but popular regime (in medium if not short term) and same goes for Afghan (again medium if not long term)...this EXACTLY what the royals do not want...deal with Taliban means keeping in control & power a strong anti-royal family force whose PRIMARY focus is on establishing REAL rule of pure...they must be s..t scared of that prospect..

That is also why this story of 'custodians of two holy mosques' keeps popping up with regularity as a suffix even in Indian media like Express...bit like 'Leader of Tamil race' crown by *MK sycophants..

So look for friends who can be around to prop you up one way or the other....the Nepal approach...

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 01 Mar 2010 11:37

Becoming observer in OIC does not make us non-secular (as if secular precluded doing anything pro-Muslim or anti-Hindu in the first place)...Russia too is observer, Turkey is member and so on...

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 01 Mar 2010 12:29

Suppiah wrote:Becoming observer in OIC does not make us non-secular (as if secular precluded doing anything pro-Muslim or anti-Hindu in the first place)...Russia too is observer, Turkey is member and so on...

Secular or non secular is not applicable for foreign policy.
In foreign policy everything is about national interest. Foreign relations is not for public image and credentials. Nations which do not have their interest defined will be condemned
If this confusion is there it will be a big danger for the country.

arun wrote:
Granting that India accepting “Observer Status” Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) is going to create a whole lot of takleef to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, I am not sure of the appropriateness of a secular nation like India belonging to a communal organisation like the OIC.

Sad to read this kind of posts

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 01 Mar 2010 13:34

^^^Membership of OIC has nothing to do with our "secular" status...In fact we tried gettign a membership when OIC was set up - didnt get through due to Pak machinations then..Over the years, the OIC has been litle less than a talk-shop, in fact less relevant than NAM, and thats saying a lot!

But a membership of some sort will be a good signal, especially to Pakistan...TO me it will be little more than diplomatic "cheap thrills", but if it comes in for free, why not?

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 01 Mar 2010 14:33

Acharya, fail to see what is sad about my post. All I said was the issue is not one of secular or non-secular. Whether it is in national interest or not is entirely a different matter. As many know, it is a talk shop like all other talk shops but if it does not come with any appeasement pre-conditions or post conditions I guess no issues..

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 01 Mar 2010 18:41

Here is the full speech PM's ADDRESS TO THE MAJLIS-AL-SHURA
Some excerpts -

Over 5,000 years ago, ships made with teak from Kerala freely traversed the waters of the Indian Ocean and linked the people of Sindh, Gujarat and Malabar with the different ports of the Gulf and the Red Sea, going up to Basra and Alexandria.

Indian Muslim scholars went to Mecca in order to learn Islamic theology. Arab Muslim scholars came to India to learn mathematics, science, astronomy and philosophy. These exchanges led to the widespread diffusion of knowledge in the sciences, arts, religion and philosophy

India has made significant contributions to all aspects of Islamic civilization.

West Asia is a vital part of India’s extended neighbourhood.

But to realise this vision, Pakistan must act decisively against terrorism. If Pakistan cooperates with India (highlights mine!), there is no problem that we cannot solve and we can walk the extra mile to open a new chapter in relations between our two countries

D Roy · Post by **D Roy** » 01 Mar 2010 20:09

These guys used to fund the wrong kind of people for both push as well as pull reasons.

The pull comes from the usual.
The push came from the need to keep the crazies of their own back and focused on other lands.

Now unfortunately the pawns want the money as well as the throne. Yamrika is probably no longer in a position to either keep them at bay or does not really want to, given wet dreams in the CAR and Russia. Along with the bad guys, the Turkis and Persians are back in the game with far more modernized societies and burgeoning industrial/scientific capability.

So in this situation , who the effing is going to help them?- not china, too farwaway and not yet at full blown war with the bad guys ( thought they might be soon enough).
The only option - viable as well as capable - the old Holy Cow- India.

Now India should make a rather pertinent point- divert all the insane amounts of money you have been giving to the crazies towards proper investment into Indian infrastructure that can be used via government approved channels to help mainstream your co-religionists over here.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 01 Mar 2010 22:08

I 400% mistrust KSA. Keep as much distance from those snakes as possible, I say. Engage them only when wearing asbestos suits. Can't help it that a qtr of our oil supply comes from there. Have to grin and bear their duplicity a little while longer, I guess.

FWIW, here's Sri B Raman's take, on twitter.
http://twitter.com/ramanthink

India steps up public diplomacy against Pak inaction against jihadi terrorists while keeping door open for more meetings of FSs

Three important steps in public diplomacy.No.1: Focus on Ilyas Kashmiri of 313 Brigade who is a co-accused in the FBI case against Headley & Rana.

No.2: Updating of list of terrorists---Indians & Pakis---wanted for trial in India who have been given shelter in Pakistan.

The updated list includes many absconding Indian Mujahideen cadres working for LET. Next step: Issue of red alerts for them by INTERPOL

No.3: Manmohan Singh raises the issue with Saudi Arabia. First time India has done so publicly.

Saudi Arabia unlikely to be helpful.Next to ISI, Saudi intelligence is an important source of funding for LET.

LET a strong supporter of Saudi ruling family.Has close contacts with Saudi intelligence. Has an office in Saudi Arabia.

Futile to expect Saudi Arabia to help India on the terrorism issue.

Again, TIFWIW. I'd rather see some real big fish handed over to Yindia before I believe even 1% worth that KSA has turned a new leaf w.r.t. Yindia.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 02 Mar 2010 01:48

IMHO, Iranian Mullahs have to draw few constructive conclusions with MMS trip to Saudia and hopefuly learn some lessons. They kept changing the goal posts and even backed out of negotiared NG assuming Indian weakness in energy field.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 02 Mar 2010 01:52

Suppiah wrote:
With Obama, he is pro-Islam

How so? What is "pro-Islam"?

I think it will be easier to deal with countries like Saudi Arabia if we have laws in our country limiting religious education funded by foreign money. Religious education should be only done with domestic money which will help move us towards Indian interpretations....but that's OT.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 02 Mar 2010 02:03

It is probably all about the next phase of the American plans to move against Iran. So the non-Iranian domain Islamic countries and India have to be aligned together. India can throw the spanner in the works by tilting towards Iran. Russia and PRC are already behind Iran.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 02 Mar 2010 02:08

We cannot afford to align against Iran right now as it will be helpful to us when we deal with TSP in the future. We need to cultivate Iranian support. Just IMO.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Mar 2010 02:21

It was an Indian Muslims' delegation that reminded Ibn Saud of his duties as the "custodian of the two mosques" in ~1928 or so after teh fall of Hejaz to Ibn Saud's forces. Hejaz was always under the Sharif family for many centuries even under Turks.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 02 Mar 2010 02:27

We dont need align ourselves against Persians but use the oppertunity to further our interest with them. Eevr sicne AhmadinJacket came to power , Iran has been taking Indian support for granted. They need to mend the fences with indians before too late.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 02 Mar 2010 03:01

Manmohan of Arabia
It's Love! India and Saudi Arabia Embrace

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 02 Mar 2010 03:27

Courtesy: SPA

King Abdullah held talks with Singh at his palace in Riyadh on Sunday and honored the Indian premier by conferring on him the King Abdul Aziz Sash of the First Order.

King Saud University Rector Abdullah Al-Othman awards an honorary doctorate degree to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday. Higher Education Minister Khaled Al-Anqari and Singh's wife Gursharan Kaur are also in the photo. (SPA)

Looks like MMS had a lot of fun there.

Link

"I did discuss Indo-Pakistan relations on a one-to-one basis with His Majesty (King Abdullah). I explained to him the role terrorism - aided, abetted and inspired by Pakistan is playing in our country," he said.

"I did not ask him to do anything other than use his good offices to persuade Pakistan to desist from this path."

Lets see how this plays out. Hopefully we will see a few guys being pushed to India from KSA.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 02 Mar 2010 06:43

Riyadh Declaration cements ties

RIYADH: Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signed the Riyadh Declaration on Sunday night. The declaration was signed after the two leaders held extensive talks.

The declaration, termed a “New era of strategic partnership”, will be implemented by the two countries for their economic, cultural, social and scientific development. It will identify the areas to harness energy resources as well as fight terrorism, drug trafficking and money laundering.

Singh, who is on a three-day state visit, met with King Abdullah on Sunday night at Al-Yamamah Palace in the presence of Crown Prince Sultan, deputy premier and minister of defense and aviation, Second Deputy Premier and Interior Minister Prince Naif and senior government officials.

...

"We should also establish new partnerships in the area of new and renewable energy through the sharing of clean technologies and joint collaborations," he said during his speech, which included a broad summary of opportunities to strengthen ties between the two countries in an increasingly integrated world economy.

He also held talks with Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal, Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Ali Al-Naimi and Commerce and Industry Minister Zainal Alireza.

...

Nine agreements were signed ...

Appreciating Saudi Arabia's role as a reliable partner in meeting India's energy needs, the premier told the Saudi Business Forum that conditions are ripe for moving beyond a traditional buyer-seller relationship to a comprehensive energy partnership, with Saudi interests in India and vice versa.

Vijaya Latha Reddy, secretary to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, said that Saudi Aramco is setting up a procurement office in India worth an estimated $400 million.

In his speech to top Saudi business executives and government officials, Singh pointed out that Indian companies are well equipped to participate in upstream and downstream petroleum projects in the Kingdom, adding that the robust growth of the two economies offer immense opportunities for business communities from both sides.

"Indian investments in the Kingdom have risen considerably and today stand at more than $2 billion covering over 500 joint ventures," he pointed out. Many major Indian companies have established presences in the Kingdom.

"Our public sector company, RITES, recently won a contract to participate in the North-South Railway project," he said. "There is, however, potential for doing much more."

Since 1990, Singh said Saudi Arabia has undergone substantial economic diversification and it is investing heavily in diversifying from its heavy economic dependence on petroleum.

...

MMS sums it up in that last paragraph.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 02 Mar 2010 06:52

IIRC, the konkan railway corporation was allowed into the city to Medina - the first time that non muslims have been allowed to enter that city, to conduct a prelim survey of the city for their sky bus project. This was like 7-8 years ago.

However there's no news of such a project being undertaken by konkan railways, apparently they didn't win the contract.

However this means that the Saudis have been following infrastructure development in India very closely and because of the delhi metro railway corporation, several enquries have come in for similar projects in the middle east.

Incidentally, this info is not related to Saudi Arabia, but the Dubai ports world runs the container services at India's largest port - the JNPT (Nhava Sheva) off mumbai. The middle eastern countries are diversifying their oil money and investing that money into developing markets all over. The bulk of that money has gone into China, Japan, US, Europe etc
With the Riyadh declaration, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia approving huge investmensts in India, other middle eastern states will likely be following suit in investing big time in India.

India is growing at 7.9% this year, the 9% growth rate that India seeks for the next 25 years will happen.

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 02 Mar 2010 06:56

Certainly nothing dramatic should be expected from KSA. That is not the way things move there. In the context of India's overall challenge to neuter the ability of the kabila to damage its progress, the trip's objectives could have been
- to probe and understand firsthand the depth of linkages between the Saudi apparatus and the kabila
- take steps to pare support to the kabila forces, if there are possible openings (this is of course very optimistic)
- to reach out to sections of the Saudi elite who may be interested in relationships outside the kabila (many gurus have used the term, 'offering hedging opportunities')
- to communicate openly our 'interest' in the region (and this is not just the 1 m plus labor force struggling in the desert - while this is an important factor, that should not be the sole constituent of our interest).
One important subtext of the visit was that this was not a visit by a supplicant - MMS visited as an equal, and focused on areas where India is superior to KSA, and can lead KSA. The non verbal messages indicate this was quite well understood by that side. People who understand Saudi (and Arab) psyche will know the importance of this dimension. Knowing that country, nothing will move fast. It might even come to nothing. A lot more work is needed, before anything tangible can emerge. Certainly we should not expect any dissociation between pakistan and KSA in the near future - that relationship is unique! But all in all we need more of this sort of stuff from MMS. How about a trip to Iran?

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 02 Mar 2010 07:23

Hari Seldon wrote:I 400% mistrust KSA.
FWIW, here's Sri B Raman's take, on twitter.
http://twitter.com/ramanthink
No.3: Manmohan Singh raises the issue with Saudi Arabia. First time India has done so publicly.

Saudi Arabia unlikely to be helpful.Next to ISI, Saudi intelligence is an important source of funding for LET.

LET a strong supporter of Saudi ruling family.Has close contacts with Saudi intelligence. Has an office in Saudi Arabia.

Futile to expect Saudi Arabia to help India on the terrorism issue.
Again, TIFWIW. I'd rather see some real big fish handed over to Yindia before I believe even 1% worth that KSA has turned a new leaf w.r.t. Yindia.

The current round of high level engagements between India and Saudi Arabia began after the king's visit to be the chief guest at the 2006 R-day parade.

Before this the Government of India had little leverage in Saudi Arabia. But with increasing investments by both countries into each other economies, the interdependence that will be created, will cause a lot of issues such as terror to be smoothed out.

Who will the saudis lay their bets with, Pakistan+LET or rapidly growing business investments in India?

The Saudi King only last year mentioned, that they were looking at a world when there will be no oil money. There is an urgency on the part of the middle eastern states on this account. Dubai's financial crises has shaken everyone there. Money is flowing out into rapidly growing economies to build stake and diversify their investments.

ON the terror front, there won't be any sudden change immediately, but very soon, KSA will wean off its support to the anti India forces, as its dependence on India grows. India is already a larger economy than KSA.

GDP (Nominal)
India: $ 1.2 trillion
Saudi Arabia: $ 0.46 trillion

GDP (PPP)
India: $ 3.38 trillion
Saudi Arabia: $ 0.59 trillion.

The Saudi King Abdullah is worth $ 22 Billion in personal wealth.
Mukesh Ambani is worth $ 19.5 billion.
Lakshmi Mittal is worth $ 19.3 billion.
Anil Ambani is worth $ 10.1 billion.

Perhaps some economics garu can elaborate. We need strategic discussions on business trends etc on BRF. These are increasingly important in national security and overall national power projection.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Mar 2010 07:26

Gagan, Glad to see you move the thinking chain.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 02 Mar 2010 07:38

Gerard wrote:Manmohan of Arabia
It's Love! India and Saudi Arabia Embrace

Worth reading several times. Very enlightening indeed.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 02 Mar 2010 09:17

I think any investment from a ideologicaly hostile nation has to be watched carefully regardless of how much they "embrace".

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 02 Mar 2010 10:50

It is incorrect to think of the Saudi royals as ideological or ideologically hostile to India.

The perception is that they are hardline, because of the title 'custodian of the holy mosques' and because of their leadership status as ummah leaders.

The fact is that like every royal family all over the world, self preservation is a more stronger motivating factor than any thine else. They use hard line religion as one of the tools to maintain their rule. In that regard they are not much different from the Nepalese or the European royal families.

There are dark clouds gathering in the future, which is prompting this move at greater stake to be built with India.

I don't think the saudis are as hostile to India's interest as china or some other states are. The mutual benefits far far outweigh any differences. It is just that there has been no common ground so far.

More in another post.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 02 Mar 2010 11:01

I would say realpolitik will demand we look deeper at the way the saudi state conducts itself.

I recall, that most of the gulf states didn't have a currency of their own in the 60s, and the Indian rupee was used by them. A natural empathy was there for India, because of Jawaharlal Nehru's stature as the founding member of NAM, the rapid industralization that he began. Then in the 70s and 80s, it was the film industry and its soft power that enthused the arabs. That lady Zeenat Aman was a siren around which many a middle eastern heart skipped a beat. But by now things had changed.

New money in saudi arabia's hands meant that they tried their own brand of pax arabiana on susceptible muslim states. The wahabi outflow was a result of that. This has affected most sunni followers the world over, to different extents depending on each nation. India tried to control it as best and as lightfootedly as it could, Pakistan and many african nations fell head over heels for it. The Pakistanis were now dreaming of being arabs themselves!

A mixture of several factors have brought a sense of realism and pragmatism into the saudi rulers minds. I'll enumerate a few randomly, please add on as you would feel like:

The saudis have undergone a series of shocks in the last decade or so, which has rudely jolted their visions of pax-arabiana.
1. 9/11 caused the arabs to be hated across the western world. The arab royal families depended on the western governments for support. ALL their monies are invested in the west, and the west was getting hostile in their behaviour towards the arabs. No one likes terrorism, in fact for the royals in the arab world, this is threatening because it upsets their gravy train.
2. The arab royal families are further threatened by the winds of democracy slowly flowing through the arab world. Bahrain is the pioneer, the others are following through with more rights for women, elections and parliaments. Royal families are having nightmares of being left out in the cold like the european royals, or heaven forbid meeting the end that the russian royal family met. The mass appeal that Al-Qaida and OBL generated is very threatening to the arab royals, because this will sooner or later get channeled into uprooting them from power.
3. The west has started to behave strangely after their heavy dependence on oil all these decades. The west has started talking in earnest about clean energy, low emissions, new fuels, new energy sources. This is coupled by the finiteness of the oil reserves that the middle east has.
4. The decline of first the Soviet Union and then the west and the likely emergence of a multipolar world in the future, of which India and China are the likely poles. The royal families are trying to diversify their investments to hedge their bets with the multipolar future.
5. From India's POV, the economic, political and military rise of India is the single most important factor driving Indo-Saudi relationship today.

India did not find common ground with the Saudis all these years, in spite of trying. There was little that was in common, except the large muslim population in India. There was little trade, India was part of the NAM, the saudis were in the US's camp because the US protected the Al-Saud family. Pakistan was also in that camp. OTOH india was perceived as an ally of Russia.

Infact, because India's government were trying to prevent wahabism from taking root in India, and the fact that India was emerging as one of the emerging power centers in Asia was not comforting for the saudis, who were still in the pax arabia mode. They decided to then to hitch their wagon with the Pakistanis who were engaged in keeping India in check with those jihadi groups. But as we've seen 911 changed that.
The saudis must have thought that OBL is a loony nut who the Saudi GID had sent off to Afghanistan to cool his heels. Instead he was becoming more popular than the royals amongst the arabs and the muslims. The saudi's little geopolitical game using the talibs had come undone with 911.

It is realpolitik that makes the saudis acknowledge that there is more to be gained by engaging India directly than indirectly via pakistan. In the end, I'd say, it is good that India and saudi arabia are engaging very warmly, but the process has only begun.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 02 Mar 2010 11:05

^^ What is undeniable though is that teh Saudis saw Wahabism as their vehicle to ensure dominance into a post-oil age. They single-handedly funded more poison in more madrassas than any other entity in the last 40 yrs. That policy, of bankrolling vile, intolerant hatred against everybody else is yet to stop. KSA kows its window of opportunity is limited. Once oil stops, their influence goes into the trashcan. Phjhoren powers will then fund outlaws and tribes in internecine warfare to keep the region in turmoil forever.

Sure, target states of wahaist funding (like India, Indonesia and BD) should have put their foot down and told the saudis where to get off (unlike vassal states like TSP who have no such option). Recall Putin officially replying to a Saudi request to fund a grand mosque in Moscow with a quid pro quo of building a grand cathedral in Riyadh.

Again, I'm willing to wait and see anything tangible and in Indian national interest that comes out of this engagement. I don't expect much good to come of it, though.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 02 Mar 2010 11:11

One thing we have to check out is whether KSA & their ilk getting closer to India is a case of Cindy Crawford agreeing to date you but only after she is 70+...u know what I mean...

The oil era is not over, but certainly on last legs. New advances in nuclear, electric cars, solar, ethanol you name it are hitting front pages of google news practically every week.

It is okay to buy low but not ok to buy something that only has scrap value..

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 Mar 2010 11:26

Interesting to see that Gursharan Kaur has not covered her head. That is a big step

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 Mar 2010 11:33

brihaspati wrote:It is probably all about the next phase of the American plans to move against Iran. So the non-Iranian domain Islamic countries and India have to be aligned together. India can throw the spanner in the works by tilting towards Iran. Russia and PRC are already behind Iran.

Thats what it looks like

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 02 Mar 2010 12:15

Stratfor Video Dispatch: India, Saudi Arabia and a Changing South Asia

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUIE7tQ8xA8

Indian Flag on the roads of Saudi Arabia

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsZBKozEexw

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 02 Mar 2010 12:25

Jarita wrote:Interesting to see that Gursharan Kaur has not covered her head. That is a big step

Is that normal for foreign representatives to cover their heads? It's hard to imagine Hillary Clinton in a hijab. Can't imagine her running for office after that.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 02 Mar 2010 13:08

Gagan wrote:It is incorrect to think of the Saudi royals as ideological or ideologically hostile to India.

The perception is that they are hardline, because of the title 'custodian of the holy mosques' and because of their leadership status as ummah leaders.

The fact is that like every royal family all over the world, self preservation is a more stronger motivating factor than any thine else. They use hard line religion as one of the tools to maintain their rule. In that regard they are not much different from the Nepalese or the European royal families. From what is known of the saudi royals, they like their alcohol and their white women.

There are dark clouds gathering in the future, which is prompting this move at greater stake to be built with India.

I don't think the saudis are as hostile to India's interest as china or some other states are. The mutual benefits far far outweigh any differences. It is just that there has been no common ground so far.

More in another post.

Boss,
These desert tribesmen seem to have better strategic vision and tactical coordination than the SDREs. They are building linkages all around while still holding the purse strings of wahabi funding.

We continue to bleat uselessly in foreign capitals about terrorism instead of imposing economic, social and military costs to the perpetrators. In the face of such sustained hostility why are we running trains and buses? and continuing to trade and travel?

Do the questionable needs of a minuscule minority overwhelm the safety of billions across India?

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 02 Mar 2010 13:32

There are several things that can be said about this new bonhomie in Indian - KSA relations. These things are both long term and short term, positive and negative.

The immediate concern for KSA is the growing strength and intransigence of Iran. And I think that this is the main reason that this deal has happened now. But it does not take away the fact that there are long term reason for India and KSA to come closer.

But first - Iran.
Recall that one of the reasons US bandied about for the Indo-US nuke deal was that India needs to be reassured about its fuel supplies before it will move away from Iran. This is true as far as it goes. The nuke deal may (or may not) supply us energy, but that will (or will not happen) in the long run. The US needs to attack Iran NOW. So, this deal comes in place to assure India of energy as an incentive to not stop the attack on Iran.

Earlier it was just the US pushing India away from Iran. Now, KSA has joined, given the urgency of the situation. The recent conflict in Yemen was just a wake up call for the Kingdom.

NOTE:
Contrary to popular opinion, the royal family's influence is not strong. They hold on to power more by balancing various factions within the kingdom, paying them off with money, institutions, contracts, etc. They are not despots, and do not have complete control over what happens in the kingdom - they can only do so with force, but that is not their first choice because violence strips away the facade of stability that the royal family needs to maintain.

Royal support for wahhabis is part of this internal balance of power.

Given that India is now assured (?) of fuel supplies, the US attack on Iran has crossed another red light.

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KSA's position on terror is not clear. While it has been a target of some minimalist terror attacks in the past, these have been linked to Al-Qaeda, not LET/Paki based organizations. I read their statement on anti-terror in TOI today, and it mentions Taleban and AQ, not any paki based orgs (like LET).

This is important to India because paki based terrorists are anti-India, while for AQ/Talibs, India is not even third priority (Israel, KSA, and US are - in that order). This illustrates that KSA's position on terror is the same as that of US and Pakistan - and will not help India much.

Current king - Abdullah, was known to be more pro-Islamist when he was crown prince, but after becoming king, he has pursued pro American policies. His current actual position on Islamism is not clear, but it can be hoped that he is a pragmatist. It will be in everybody's interest.

If he is a closet-Islamist, then he is against US policy, and may join hands with Taleban against US if it is in his interest to do so. Even a AQ-KSA understanding is not beyond imagination. All he has to do is profess sincere Islamist leanings, and OBL will forgive him. All is well onlee.

* KSA depends on US to provide security for the royal family and keep the oil flowing to the west. If they feel the US can no longer do that, they will re-align themselves in interesting ways.

* US uses KSA oil to keep Asian countries in its grip. US does not source its oil from the ME. Only US withdrawal from global cop duties will make them withdraw from the ME. This is not as unlikely a scenario as you might think. Do not bet on US remaining a superpower beyond 2020. Britain lost its pre-eminent position in 6 years.

* Iran is a proxy fight between US on one hand and Russia and China on the other. China more than Russia, because Russia has an interest in Iranian oil staying out of the market.

* Separating India from this group is a US long term strategy. My only wish for India is that we get paid well enough for helping US.

* Many moons ago, I had posted that the only two things Euro/West fears are civil war at home, and the military might of a 'temporary' (their word) master of Asia. An Asian Entente between the three Asian giants will bring the latter fear to life. That is why separating India from this group is necessary for the west.

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More later!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Mar 2010 15:15

The Saudis for quite some time have wanted India to engage with them.It has taken the GOI a long time to realise the opportunity that came from Riyadh to boost ties.One must not forget that the KSA is a kingdom and kings and royals desire the succession to their thrones to be smooth and without bloodshed.The radicalisation of Saudis thanks to another Saudi,Osama,and the extremists within the country pose a grave danger to the monarchyy.AlQ has often stated its goal of overthrowing the monarchy because of its close ties to the US.Apart from their own home-grown opposition (remember the Mecca attcak years ago),the Iranian Shiite clergy are anathema to Sunni Saudis.However,Iran is the KSA's darkest threat and here the KSA is trying to rope in India,along with Pak on the sidelines into an anti-Iranian bloc,with the blessings of Uncle Sam.

One must understand why this gambit is taking place.Apart from good Indo-Saudi relations,India needs Saudi oil,work for its diaspora and heavy investment in Indian infrastructure projects.Pakistan likewise wants Indo-Iranian cooperation halted if not destroyed! Having Iran on one flank and India on the other,with both countries locked into a close embrace through their own infrastructure JVs,a rout for Indian goods into Afghanistan and Central Asia,plus abundant supplies of Iranian petro-products alarms not only Pak but also the USA.The KSA and the USA are buddies in the same manner as Pak and the Saudis are.The US do not want any meaningful Indo-Iranian relationship and the Saudis want India on "the side of the angels",when Iran is in the cross-hairs of attack and regime change,ostensibly for its nuclear ambitions,just as Saddam was for his (non-existant) WMDs.The US requires the complete encirclement of Iran and the KSA befriending India is a subtle "pay-off" for India keeping quiet when Iran gets shafted!

In other words,the Saudis want India "inside" their tent pissing out,rather than "outside" pissing in.Shashi Tharoor was partly right about Saudi interlocution being of use to India.He failed to mention that Saudi interlocution also helps Pak,its brother in the Islamic fold handsomely through the offer of "fool's gold" to the good doctor,now become a gold digger!