Pakistan’s naval transformation: Dangerous delusions, soaring ambitions By Abhijit Singh
The combination of dangerous delusions, soaring ambitions and a fatal nuclear obsession could spark another round of strategic brinkmanship in South Asia, with disastrous consequences for regional security. Navy is supposed to be the new domain for another round of brinkmanship
C.PE.C is "under attack"; send S.O.S to Chini-blothersIndia’s maritime watchers have had much to talk about lately. A few days after it held a bilateral exercise with the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) in the Northern Arabian Sea, the Pakistan Navy claimed its “anti-submarine” assets had prevented an Indian submarine from entering Pakistani waters. The military’s public relations wing announced that on 14 November, antisubmarine units of the Pakistan Navy detected an Indian submarine close to the Pakistani territorial sea and promptly “drove it away.” The next day, India rejected Pakistan’s claim, terming it a “pack of blatant lies.” Even as New Delhi was coming to grips with the grave accusation, however, the media reported that Islamabad had invited the Chinese Navy to join its own ships in securing Gwadar port, presumably against the threat of an Indian attack.
Not to be outdone, the Paki Fazaia (PAF), flexing its muscle, also conducted a mock landing on one of its motorways in Pakjab provinceThis delirium from Islamabad should not be a surprise. Since September this year, when the Indian Army carried out surgical strikes across the line of control in Kashmir, Pakistan’s naval commanders have been nervous about an Indian naval buildup in the Arabian Sea. In the aftermath of the latest cross border exchange of fire, as the Indian navy embarked on a series of combat exercises on its Western sea-front, Pakistan has been expecting an escalation in maritime tensions. The Pakistan Navy’s claim of detecting an Indian submarine in Pakistani waters appears to be a manifestation of a deep-seated paranoia over an Indian naval encirclement of Karachi. Since 1971, when Indian missile boats carried out a daring attack on Pakistan’s premier maritime hub, destroying a significant portion of the naval fleet and harbour facilities, Pakistani admirals have feared another assault at their strategic nerve center
For Islamabad’s maritime analysts, however, raising the bogey of an Indian submarine in Pakistani waters is an effective way of projecting a robust front. Navies know well that the presence of a foreign submarine just outside their territorial waters is par-for-the-course during an operational standoff with a rival force. India, however, has traditionally eschewed deploying submarines close to the Makran coast in a conscious bid to avoid an inadvertent skirmish, which could potentially spiral into a full-blown conflict. In contrast, the Pakis do not have any qualms, about violating IB ( the "boasting" by Ex COAS cum Prez Pervez Musharaf admitting that he crossed the international border into India for a few days to "study the situation" before Kargil operation )
India’s maritime thinkers say that the Indian Navy has never meant to use its undersea assets to aggressively bait Pakistan’s naval forces.
Since October this year, when India operationalised a nuclear triad, reportedly commissioning its first ballistic missile nuclear submarine, the INS Arihant, Pakistan’s maritime analysts are convinced that the strategic equilibrium in the western Indian Ocean has shifted decisively in India’s favour. Mohammad Azam Khan, the main author of the Pakistan’s new maritime strategy even believes that the Arihant has been active in waters close to Pakistan’s coast gathering operational information — an unreasonable claim, given that nuclear missile submarines are rarely ever used for tactical missions such as intelligence collection. Just a few days ago- the Paki Foreign Ministry , for propaganda purpose - made a dramatic announcement that India has nuclear subs in its arsenal !
India’s Arihant, however, has become a good excuse for the Pakistan Navy to make a case for its own nuclear missile submarines. Pakistan’s maritime watchers now claim that the navy has been ready for a sea based nuclear weapon ever since the establishment of the naval nuclear authority in 2013.
The Enchendee factor and the = = obsession again ! probably will get some useless Chini- maal (like the railway engines ! Increasingly being dependent on chini-largesse to salvage its sover-virginity !Beijing has yet to officially react to media reports of Islamabad’s bid to get a squadron of PLAN warships placed at Gwadar. However, an article in the Chinese state-controlled Global Times said that the benefits of Gwadar Port to the Chinese economy were limited, both on account of inadequate port capacity, as well as the economic and geographical infeasibility of a proposed pipeline to deliver oil and gas to western China. This suggests that even if the PLAN does deploy warships at Gwadar, it would a move aimed solely at assisting Pakistan’s maritime agencies in securing the near-littorals.
Where is the money coming from to implement these grandoise plans ; Modiji's policy of out-spending the Pakis on defence will bear the same fruit and will lead to the disintegration of Pakiland - in the same way which led to USSR demise , when Reagan followed the same policyThe advocacy of a sea-based deterrent also elevates the Pakistan Navy’s stature vis-à-vis the Pakistan Army, which traditionally dominates the security establishment. A sea-based nuclear option also gives senior naval officers greater leverage within the Pakistani security establishment. The Pakistan Navy’s power-driven aspirations, however, do not detract from the futility of what is essentially a risky and costly experiment. The combination of dangerous delusions, soaring ambitions and a fatal nuclear obsession could spark another round of strategic brinkmanship in South Asia, with disastrous consequences for regional security.
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