Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 Jan 2014 10:58

SanjayC wrote:^^^ That is relevant only in case of paper ballots.

If some BRFites could smell rats, don't you think Modi campaign is also smelling rats? After all, there is anecdotal evidence to conclude there is lots of input from the Internet Hindus, and the team is scouring the internet for ideas.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jan 2014 11:11

krishnan wrote:rajesh ji did your twitter acnt got suspended ?? cant seems to find your twitters , neither your id

krishnan ji,

I changed it to @DharmicFundoo

On Rudradev's recommendation didn't want to have BRF in username.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 24 Jan 2014 11:48

okkkkk

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 24 Jan 2014 12:10

Now, a former Congress CM thinks EVMs are defective!

http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/s ... 140124.htm

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 24 Jan 2014 12:12

Karunanidhi's son MK Alagiri suspended from all DMK posts

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Jan 2014 12:39

muraliravi wrote:

What's common to all 4 UP surveys is that NaMo is 1st by a large margin and Pappu last, while Mayavati beats Maulana.
If that is a proxy for seat share (which it is), BJP would easily get 40+ (possibly 50+)

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 24 Jan 2014 12:40

anywhere from 40 to 60 even 70 seats

archan · Post by **archan** » 24 Jan 2014 13:02

Looking at comments of this article: Big boost to saffron.., something strange struck. There is a comment:

Posted by: Ramraj Prabhakar
| January 24, 2014
Trying to confuse voter. These survey are bundle of lies, manageable and motivated. how they predict voters mood with samples only. Opinion Poll easily manageable and some thousand sample not able to decide India's future. Modi and company including AAP are now only in day dreaming and want to confuse youth India with slogans and false data.

and there is one a few comments below

Posted by: Mahboob Alam
| January 24, 2014
Wave? BJP wave? Where is the wave? These survey are bundle of lies, manageable and motivated.Using all options and with all right and wrong effort, BJP not even near by 272, the power number for running India. How then they think to capture power with Narendra Modi. in coming days BJP will loose more vote base.

Emphasis mine. Look at the boldface statement. Once it is used by a Hindu sounding username, and then repeated by a Muslim sounding username. Wonder what is the intention. Did the comment-bots of certain media management group mess up?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 24 Jan 2014 13:11

thats india today group which owns lots of websites/news papers/letters including aaj tak, so they might well be doing it by them self

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 24 Jan 2014 13:12

krishnan wrote:anywhere from 40 to 60 even 70 seats

Kalyan Singh keeps repeating the following numbers:

Congress 6
SP 8
BSP 9
BJP 57

At least the seat projections by KS reflect the order present in the various opinion polls. Probably 57 is BJP's dream target.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 24 Jan 2014 14:16

Reserve Bank to withdraw all pre-2005 currency notes from circulation

MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank on Wednesday decided to withdraw all currency notes issued prior to 2005, including Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denominations, after March 31 in a move apparently aimed at curbing black money and fake currencies.

"After March 31, 2014, it (RBI) will completely withdraw from circulation all bank notes issued prior to 2005. From April 1, 2014, the public will be required to approach banks for exchanging these notes," the RBI said in a statement.

BUT

Secret Indian currency template compromised: CBI

NEW DELHI: The secret template India uses to print currency notes has been "compromised" and that is possibly why fake but real-looking Indian currency notes are being pumped in to subvert the country's economy, says the Central Bureau of Investigation.

The CBI, the nodal agency for checking fake notes, has now formed a special team comprising its sleuths and officials from the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, the Reserve Bank of India and the Central Forensic Science Laboratory to find out how and at what level the design got "compromised".

"Our investigations have revealed that the 2005 secret security template which was introduced as part of the new design adopted then has been compromised," CBI Director Ashwini Kumar said.

Asked, if the country was still using the security template, he said, "yes".

If 2005 template is compromised, then why pre-2005 notes are being recalled? One of the biggest scam happening right in front of our eyes.

M Joshi · Post by **M Joshi** » 24 Jan 2014 15:02

SwamyG wrote:There was an interesting play of words in the HT show. While Rahul Kanwal performed gymnastics to ponder what can stop Modi, Ravishankar Prasad gave away some important signals or behind the room workings. While dropping the names of politicians, he used the suffix 'ji' for JJ and Mamta.

I've seen Ravi Shankar Prasaad use "ji" for Rahul Gandhi. I hope he's not joining BJP.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 24 Jan 2014 15:31

Goodness, what is it going to take the country to transition completely to polymer currency?It almost seems like there is a vested interest in continuing the status quo with the existing paper currency situation which does not have as robust safeguards as polymer.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 24 Jan 2014 15:48

Muppalla wrote:
nageshks wrote: Assam-4 (believe me - BJP has a decent chance of winning in 8 of the 14 seats (not saying it will happen), 2 others are impossible for the Cong.),
what are the 4 seats that BJP can win in Assam?

BJP has an edge in Nowgong, and Silchar. It has very good chances in Gauhati (has edge now, but may turn dicey if Himanta Biswa Sarma decides to contest for Cong.), Dibrugarh or Lakhimpur (whichever Sarbananda Sonowal decides to contest), Jorhat and Mangaldoi. It also has an outside chance in Tezpur, Barpeta, and Dibrugarh/Lakhimpur (the one not contested by Sonowal). Karimganj is possible only if AUDF and Cong. split the Muslim vote, while BJP nets the entire Hindu vote. Kaliabor is a Hindu seat, but very hard for the BJP due to Tarun Gogoi's popularity in the constituency. Diphu, Dhubri and Kokrajhar are all but impossible for BJP.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 24 Jan 2014 16:13

Force Narendra Modi is closer to power, says India Today Group-CVoter Mood of the Nation poll

Both are faster now: The rise of a man who has turned the next General Elections into a referendum on the future of a Nation Abandoned and the fall of a regime that has already retired from the mind of India. The man, as salesman of India Unbound and the prophet of a Congress-less India, has been on a roll for a while; he has changed the syntax of argument in one of the world's most voluble democracies.

The velocity of his ascent is more than a mark of his success as a proselytiser and provocateur in a country impatient for change; it shows how the most ambitious and audacious in politics has harvested the resentment of India. The story of the fallen is a parable of power wasted and a people conned; it tells why the chances of redemption are remote in spite of the stirrings of renewal within. The India Today Group-CVoter Mood of the Nation Poll confirms the consistency with which the Narendra Modi juggernaut has been conquering the mind space of India and the Manmohan Singh-led UPA regime has been undergoing the most devastating political atrophy of our time.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 24 Jan 2014 18:48

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/in ... -race.html

Just take the numbers, rest is crap.

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 24 Jan 2014 18:58

SanjayC wrote: It's amazing why BJP can't smell a rat in EVMs and consistent wins of Cong in LS polls while losing in the same states in assembly polls (Uttarkhand for example). How dumb can one be?

MNC-owners have firmly told BJP-leaders not to touch EVM issue. So BJP-leaders are NOT dumb. But they are now helpless.

Arjun wrote:Seriously, is Delhi as big on dorks as this survey indicates ? : Delhi Opinion Poll

Opinion polls predict BJP sweep in UP, AAP in Delhi

.....

I predicted this in jun-2013. Almost every Indian city except cities in Gujarat\UP will behave like Delhi. Reason could be paid-media or EVM. OR, BJP-leaders can handover 300/543 NDA seats to MNC-owners and Missionaries to reduce AK-420 effect.

===

AK has asked its activists to harass Nigerians and not harass Bangladeshis. See details on my facebook status -- https://www.facebook.com/mehtarahulc/po ... 8670956922

(1) Soorpankha Ghandy ordered Lt Gov Delhi to give face-saving exit to Arvindbhai . And the FACT that Lt Gov gave face saving exit to Arvindbhai proves that there is fixing/nexus between Arvindbhai and Soorpankha Ghandy, and that proves that Arvindbhai is now an adopted son of Soorpankha Ghandy.
....
(3) There were less than 2000 volunteers at anshan site. So there was no need to stop metro or traffic even for one second. The traffic jam and metro jam were created by Congress Ministers to give national news to AK-420's anshan, which backfired. for details, pls see https://www.facebook.com/mehtarahulc/po ... 7582356922

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 24 Jan 2014 19:30

Ok, this is what I heard from Delhiwalas.
Lot of anger against the Africans (Nigerians) in many localities. Reason, because of the criminal activities some Africans are involved in. Overstaying the visa is rampant, but people are not one bit bothered about that. The biggest blame goes to the police, for the deterioration of relation between the indian and african communities. People do complaint to police about the criminal activities, but police never takes the action. Police may be hand in hand with the criminals.

People have accepted the reality/fact that Africans will be here permanently. Many of them have started there businesses and doing jobs, they are not here for temporary stay. And, there is nothing wrong in that.

People "DO BELIEVE" that its mostly "NIGERIANS", who are involved in criminal activities. They "DO NOT" paint all African nationals with the same brush.

Personally, We have given our property on rent in delhi to many foreigner's (both africans and Goras, mostly NGO types) in the past, and have never faced any problems. Always have had positive relations with them.

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 24 Jan 2014 19:33

Now, keeping all that above in mind. Many locals are impressed by the drama done by Somnath Bharti. They are considering him a hero.

archan · Post by **archan** » 24 Jan 2014 19:44

ABP Bihar opinion poll live on TV:
BJP 24
Cont 2

NikU 6
Lallu 5
Topiwala 0
Others 3

Clear majority predicted.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 24 Jan 2014 20:19

archan wrote:ABP Bihar opinion poll live on TV:
BJP 24
Cont 2
NikU 6
Lallu 5
Topiwala 0
Others 3

Clear majority predicted.

What are the vote shares, does this take into account the cong-rjd alliance?

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 24 Jan 2014 20:31

Xpost:-
AAP's membership drive: South India not excited

The Aam Aadmi Party has claimed that its membership has touched the 50 lakh mark, with the figures showing that the party is receiving less support from the southern states. ...
Two lakh members have joined AAP in Tamil Nadu whereas in Karnataka, only 59,000 members, of which 49,000 registered online, have joined the party. In Kerala, a mere 40,000 people became AAP members...

Despite all the noise there really not many takers in the south. This is especially so in ITvity city which was being projected as a prime target AAP. Tells you what a load of BS that poll survey on HT was, giving 1 seat to AAP in Karnataka.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 24 Jan 2014 20:43

i doubt the TN number

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 24 Jan 2014 20:49

ABP Nielson in Bihar: Sample size is 4518 which is much higher (almost 4 times the sample of csds, but maybe csds has more confidence in its sample as they do face to face instead of telephonic done by nielson and cvoter)

BJP - 24 seats (35% vote share)
JDU - 6 (11%)
RJD - 5 (17%)
Cong - 2 (8%)
LJP -1 (6%)

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 24 Jan 2014 20:50

krishnan wrote:i doubt the TN number

All fake. They have volunteers who force people on streets and traffic signals to take a pamplet. Every pamplet given out is considered one member gained.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 24 Jan 2014 21:03

If the Bihar nos are right, post-2014 the BJP should topple Nitish Govt. Keeping him on will only keep his hopes alive in 2016. He sabotaged about 14-15 seats.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 24 Jan 2014 21:14

Xposting from AAP thread

saravana wrote:Even in the numbers reported for AAP, I wonder what percentage is brand new membership and how much is boosted by mergers and acquisitions between existing NGOs? For example PMANE in TN might boast membership of few thousands which could be the adult population of the villages nearby. And considering Somnath Bargi(ng) background in spam the numbers of the online membership should be taken with a pinch of salt.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 24 Jan 2014 23:21

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Jan 2014 23:30

Shiv Aroor ‏@ShivAroor
More facepalm, anyone? Congress releases new ad with new tag line after gaffe. | pic.twitter.com/sPNF7wi4HR

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 24 Jan 2014 23:31

muraliravi wrote:All fake. They have volunteers who force people on streets and traffic signals to take a pamplet. Every pamplet given out is considered one member gained.

Why hasn't one ran into me yet !!!

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 24 Jan 2014 23:38

azhagiri takes a dig at vijaykant and gets 'temporary suspension' from oldman. methinks it is drama to get dmdk to respond. vijaykant has allied with dmk in the past and it was rumored that a large amount of money was involved. if that is true, then that can still work. although, imo it is political suicide in TN to ally with either dmk or inc in current political climate. everybody is wooing vijaykant as his is the biggest fish not yet allied with anybody. if he joins NDA, it has good prospects in many south TN seats where mdmk and dmdk can add votebases that are largely exclusive to themselves, plus the "modi wave" youngsters and independent voters - should get them a few seats.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Jan 2014 23:43

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 318273.cms

modi led govt coming to power !!

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 24 Jan 2014 23:54

Gus wrote:azhagiri takes a dig at vijaykant and gets 'temporary suspension' from oldman. methinks it is drama to get dmdk to respond. vijaykant has allied with dmk in the past and it was rumored that a large amount of money was involved. if that is true, then that can still work. although, imo it is political suicide in TN to ally with either dmk or inc in current political climate. everybody is wooing vijaykant as his is the biggest fish not yet allied with anybody. if he joins NDA, it has good prospects in many south TN seats where mdmk and dmdk can add votebases that are largely exclusive to themselves, plus the "modi wave" youngsters and independent voters - should get them a few seats.

Gus saar,
Subbu Swami was claiming that there are 3 lakh Gujaratis in Madurai (Lok Sabha constituency) and BJP can win Madurai. Is this true?

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 24 Jan 2014 23:58

pankajs wrote:Shiv Aroor ‏@ShivAroor
More facepalm, anyone? Congress releases new ad with new tag line after gaffe. | pic.twitter.com/sPNF7wi4HR

"Jode" means shoes in Marathi.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 25 Jan 2014 00:06

Ashok Sarraff wrote: "Jode" means shoes in Marathi.

Same in Kannada.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 25 Jan 2014 00:08

Nagesh saar, there are tons of gujaratis marwaris saurashtra folk in madurai and around. Are they a decent vote bank? Hard top tell. But then su swamy has won there. I wonder what jj would ask for as her pound of flesh if she wins 30:35 seats and negotiates with namo.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 25 Jan 2014 00:21

Prasad wrote:Nagesh saar, there are tons of gujaratis marwaris saurashtra folk in madurai and around. Are they a decent vote bank? Hard top tell. But then su swamy has won there. I wonder what jj would ask for as her pound of flesh if she wins 30:35 seats and negotiates with namo.

Thanks, Prasad-ji. I am worried about JJ. The woman is mercurial.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 25 Jan 2014 00:27

nageshks wrote:
Ashok Sarraff wrote: "Jode" means shoes in Marathi.
Same in Kannada.

Great! Let's all give to Jode to congress in 2014.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 25 Jan 2014 00:45

nageshks wrote:
Prasad wrote:Nagesh saar, there are tons of gujaratis marwaris saurashtra folk in madurai and around. Are they a decent vote bank? Hard top tell. But then su swamy has won there. I wonder what jj would ask for as her pound of flesh if she wins 30:35 seats and negotiates with namo.
Thanks, Prasad-ji. I am worried about JJ. The woman is mercurial.

Absolutely. I mean we are now for the first time seeing surveys converging around 190 for BJP. If Congress finalizes alliance with lalu, I expect that to come down to around 183 and If they go with Maya, I expect that to dip sharply to 170. But hey that is for now, BJP still has not just yet plateaued, so that 170 may well go to 177-178 in the end. So they would need 95 seats if congress goes for these alliances. Lalu alliance is a done deal, he is just dying for it, no reason for cong to reject him. Maya is the only unknown here.

So I think if Congress gets alliance with both lalu and maya, BJP will end at 177 and need 95 seats from allies
if Congress gets alliance with only lalu, BJP will end at 190 and need 82 seats from allies

So broadly BJP should get ready to scout for allies worth 100 seats. Their existing allies SS, SAD, HJC, NPF, Vaiko, PMK, RPI(A), Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana & Rashtriya Samaj Paksh are all worth just about 25 seats. For the remaining 75

Jaya: 30
TDP: 12
TRS: 11
MNS: 2
INLD: 2
Bodo: 1
BJD: 13
JDS: 2

Thats about 73, its going to be tight if these guys get below 175. At even at the 180 level they need a huge chunk (30 seats) from jaya and she will demand a lot.

One more caveat is what if TN throws up a 50:50 result (she has never done too great in LS), then we will be in bigger trouble, becos only one party will give support. The best situation is if both Jaya and Naveen enter into a prepoll alliance with BJP. Good for everyone. They can sweep their respective states also. Dont know why all this hesitation. But maybe BJP is also playing cards close to its chest, just like cong can play with maya and lalu, BJP can also royally screw UPA is they enter into prepoll alliance with Jaya and Naveen and go for tacit understanding with MNS.

If nothing works, then the last resort is of course, lock the jdu mp's in a hotel.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 25 Jan 2014 01:15

jagga wrote:Ok, this is what I heard from Delhiwalas.
Lot of anger against the Africans (Nigerians) in many localities. Reason, because of the criminal activities some Africans are involved in. Overstaying the visa is rampant, but people are not one bit bothered about that. The biggest blame goes to the police, for the deterioration of relation between the indian and african communities. People do complaint to police about the criminal activities, but police never takes the action. Police may be hand in hand with the criminals.

People have accepted the reality/fact that Africans will be here permanently. Many of them have started there businesses and doing jobs, they are not here for temporary stay. And, there is nothing wrong in that.

People "DO BELIEVE" that its mostly "NIGERIANS", who are involved in criminal activities. They "DO NOT" paint all African nationals with the same brush.

Personally, We have given our property on rent in delhi to many foreigner's (both africans and Goras, mostly NGO types) in the past, and have never faced any problems. Always have had positive relations with them.

Talking about generalisations, most Dilli wallas (and most Indians) are a bunch of racist a$$holes themselves. North-eastern Indians and African are prostitutes and drug smugglers for them. Whites are "easy". UP Bihar wallhas are uncouth bhaiyas. South Indians are all Madrasis and so on. Based upon my interactions with native Dilli-NCR population, I'd rather not put much trust in to what delusions these people have for anyone.