Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Jan 2014 02:13

What is coming out really well is

North India
JK: BJP (1/6) + IND (1)
HP: BJP (4/4)
PB: (3/13) + SAD (6)
HR: BJP (6/10) + HJC (1) + INLD (1)
UT: BJP (5/5)

Otherwise
JH: BJP (12/14)
CG: BJP (10/11)
OR: BJP (4/21)

Delhi is wrong. Public mood has changed. It will not be changing back. I'm pretty sure that in Gujarat, Rajasthan and MP, BJP would simply finish off Congress. If state elections can give BJP such majorities, then in Lok Sabha elections it would be almost a sweep.

In whole of North India, Congress may get only a single seat in Haryana and a couple in Punjab.

More like
PB: INC (2/13)
HR: INC (1/10)
MP: INC (3/29)
CG: INC (1/11)
UP: INC (3/80)
OR: INC (4/21)
AS: INC (4/14)
MZ: INC (1/1)
WB: INC (2/42)
KA: INC (9/28)
KL: INC (3/20)
AP: INC (4/42)

Total INC < 40

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 26 Jan 2014 02:46

Goel picked for RS seat from Rajasthan, Delhi BJP may get new chief

http://indianexpress.com/article/cities ... new-chief/

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Jan 2014 03:00

BJP picks RPI’s Athawale as its Rajya Sabha nominee

From the lone seat in MH, NDA (BJP, Shiv Sena, RPI-A, SSS) decides to appoint Athawale. Good move!

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 26 Jan 2014 03:15

I like the positive expectations/vibes onlee. Gone are the days, when BRFites were lungi shivering with calculations like - if BJP wins 150-180 seats, then Advani could become PM; if BJP wins 180-200 seats then Modi has the chance. Now we are talking about BJP winning 200-225 seats. Some uber positive people are wondering if 250 is possible. I won't be surprised post elections NDA gets 300+ seats. Jai ho onlee.

SwamyG i am on record here 8 months ago predicting 300 plus.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 26 Jan 2014 03:26

Victor wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:Word is that in Muzaffarnagar, Jats have told Muslims that they come back to their villages, to their properties, on three conditions : no beard, no azaan and no namaz. FWIW.
Azaan on loudspeaker should be banned. Let the mullahs use their lungs like they always did. Do they want to wake the faithful in the next district also? But hopefully the rest is not true.

Greater Visakhapatnam population is around 4 million, and the total muslim population is less than 100,000 - one of the lowest ratio in entire AP. As such the population of muslims in AP is low if we exclude telangana and few distrcits of rayalaseema. But when I visted Vizag few weeks ago, these Azaan coming out of loud speakers became very common, disturbing entire population who are 98% non-muslim. For a moment I used to wonder whether I'm in Vizag or Tehran. If this is the plight of Vizag, I can imagine the situation in other cities. This is all part of pseudo-secularism package where there is no regard to ratio of population or the opinion of the majority. BTW, the usual loud speakers bombarding with tollywood songs are all history now, only to be replaced by this religious nuisance.

Vinu · Post by **Vinu** » 26 Jan 2014 03:47

muraliravi wrote: TN
ADMK 24 DMK 11 BJP 1 Cong 1 Rest 2

I don't think DMK+ would be able to cross double digit. How do they workout these numbers? I don't know why most of MSM surveys always over estimate DMK numbers.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jan 2014 04:19

pankajs wrote:Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 38m

If Anil Ambani doesn't act, I will self-immolate outside his house: Sanjay Nirupam

Is this guy nuts? Its Anil Ambani's wife who was an actress!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Jan 2014 04:29

Vinu wrote:
muraliravi wrote: TN
ADMK 24 DMK 11 BJP 1 Cong 1 Rest 2
I don't think DMK+ would be able to cross double digit. How do they workout these numbers? I don't know why most of MSM surveys always over estimate DMK numbers.

BJP is gaining ground (though not converting to seats) and i think it is more than likely that they are eating ADMK votes and helping dmk (quite possible in 1-2 chennai seats where usually DMK wins except in 2009). Jaya is being adamant in not having alliance with bjp.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Jan 2014 04:39

ramana wrote:
pankajs wrote:Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 38m

If Anil Ambani doesn't act, I will self-immolate outside his house: Sanjay Nirupam

Is this guy nuts? Its Anil Ambani's wife who was an actress!

There is a huge response to Nirupam, Ramana-ji (mainly on social media). Lots of people have offered to donate petrol, kerosene, etc, if he will really immolate himself. Some have even offered to come there and oversee the procedure to ensure that he does burn fully.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Jan 2014 05:51

nageshks wrote: There is a huge response to Nirupam, Ramana-ji (mainly on social media). Lots of people have offered to donate petrol, kerosene, etc, if he will really immolate himself. Some have even offered to come there and oversee the procedure to ensure that he does burn fully.

Shouldn't people be a little more careful? Aiding and abetting suicide is a crime in India, right?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Jan 2014 05:53

SwamyG wrote: Shouldn't people be a little more careful? Aiding and abetting suicide is a crime in India, right?

We both know he won't burn himself. Basically, they are pouring scorn on his threat. Reminds me of Ganga Charan Rajput. He was running round with a pistol, threatening to shoot himself if Sonia did not become PM. Sonia did not become PM, but he has not shot himself.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Jan 2014 06:33

Gentlemen,

Here I have collated the 3 surveys that have been released in the last week. I have left out some minor states/ut's/states where BJP does not have presence. I am only posting BJP numbers here. The detailed sheet with all parties is work in progress. The main reason for this post is to provide some food for thought. People have discussed a lot about the 2004 debacle of BJP. Why did all the surveys go wrong etc.. These recent surveys just bring is Deja Vu becos around early 2004 too every survey predicted roughly 200 odd seats for BJP itself. That is the reason why I have posted the 2004 numbers here.

I have also added a poll of polls column at the end (it is not an average, but just a conservative number based on the 3 surveys). Now I believe that almost all polls which predicted BJP at 200 in 2004 were actually not way off, they just screwed in the states which I have in red (Bihar, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand and UP). Haryana is easily explainable since BJP broke off with Chautala at the last minute screwing up everything. Delhi had changed considerably and surveys could not capture it very well. But anyway Delhi and Haryana were relatively minor setbacks in terms of numbers. The real damage was done by Bihar, UP, Jharkhand and to some extent Gujarat. I am sure most pollsters were giving BJP 10 more in Bihar, 30 more in UP, 10 more in Jharkhand and 8 more in Gujarat. Add to this overestimation in delhi and Haryana by 10. thats roughly 70 seats. These seats brought BJP down from 207 to 137. If you want to get into evm theories, please dont reply to this post.

I am not sure why they got Gujarat wrong (I dont even know if they got it wrong, I dont remember the predictions for Gujarat specifically). I think they even got states like TN, Andhra wrong big time and ended up inflating NDA numbers. What is the reason for good survey accuracy in other states like MP, Rajasthan, UTT, HP etc.. I believe that 2004 most survey agencies just could not predict any states which was not bi-polar or had new alliance equations. Hence the royal screw in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand (which were not only alliance based, but heavily multipolar). Southern states had an added complexity, most survey agencies in 2004 were delhi/mumbai based with no good local field data collectors.

Now fast forward to 2014, if you look at the csds vote shares, seats from all polls, most states look achievable. But the problem is quite similar to 2004. How much can I trust the numbers in these key states. So lets look at them one by one (the ones in red).

1. Delhi: We dont have to worry this time, becos everyone has made it easy for us, they are anyway giving BJP only 1 seat.
2. Gujarat: Despite all the bravado, please keep in mind, BJP for the last 2 elections has performed badly here in lok sabha. So whats different this time, should we believe these 20+ numbers. I would take them with a grain of salt, but there is reason for optimism. BJP seems to be crossing the 50% barrier in terms of vote share for the 1st time there. Plus an aggregate of the assembly polls give BJP 22/26 meaning this time BJP has won assembly seats in districts where they were not strong before. But I would still keep a close eye. One more survey done by taleem foundation also gives BJP 53% vs 36% of cong.
3. Haryana: I have no confidence in any survey simply because Cvoter and Nielson which are giving BJP 6-7 seats are not giving the vote shares and CSDS is predicting a rout for BJP in Haryana. I would take any positive numbers for BJP from Haryana with a bucket of salt.
4. Jharkhand: There seems to a decent degree of confidence this time especially with a good vote share prediction of 40%. But I would still stick to 8 seats.
5. Bihar: These surveys are meaningless (I am not saying they are wrong), without alliances being formed. We dont know how things will churn. For all our optimism, in 2004 NDA was decimated here due to smart alliances.
6. UP: The vibes are positive and I think polling methodology has improved vastly over 2004. So Lets assume BJP is headed in the right direction.

So bottom line, my poll of poll (as reflected in the sheet) is 103 seats for BJP without UP, Bihar, Gujarat and Haryana. The sheet does not have UT's and some states where BJP is not a big player. So if we add about 5 seats there 108+UP+Bihar+Gujarat+Haryana. This equation should remove your deja vu of 2004. I still dont believe they will not break ground in Haryana (maybe get 2 seats), Conservatively they should get about 17 in Gujarat, UP conservatively 30 seats. Thats about 50 taking them to 157.

So I will say, BJP will get 157+Bihar at the minimum in 2014.

Abhijit · Post by **Abhijit** » 26 Jan 2014 07:07

^^^Great. -- edited for mistake

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jan 2014 07:24

muraliravi, First of all thanks. However when you present BJP at 157+Bihar you need to present the alternative. The reason is Delhi elections showed what INC will do to ensure BJP/NDa will not form the govt.

Sorry to be harsh.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 26 Jan 2014 07:37

Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 32s

Alliances being formed in TN are so ideology-- neutral or contradictory that Jayalalitha will win all 39 seats plus Puducherry.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Jan 2014 07:42

ramana wrote:muraliravi, First of all thanks. However when you present BJP at 157+Bihar you need to present the alternative. The reason is Delhi elections showed what INC will do to ensure BJP/NDa will not form the govt.

Sorry to be harsh.

No offence taken . Problem is to present an alternative, i need to collect of all parties in each state. That is not available so easily and worse the vote shares are absent in 2 surveys. Lets wait for 2-3 says to see if anything gets published on the sites of the media outlets

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jan 2014 09:23

OK. Good answer. Lets wait.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 Jan 2014 09:53

Got in an email

From the journalist resources I have spoken today, 3 journos (2- CNN-IBN and 1- from ABP news), all hinted the same thing that poll surveys are boosted more than what they are! at least 40 seats, shown for BJP were manipulated. Though marginally they may or may not be able win. I was shocked! why would they do it. I am told that the sole purpose of the polls is to create panic in minorities and let them consolidate against Modi and BJP. If given enough time and political titillation, they may gather more funds and prepare to fight Modi. These channels will, in regular periods, of bi weekly or monthly, in turns, will continue doing it, unless taken strong note by BJP. Those who are supposed to audit these polls are almost non-existent or sold. If BJP feels too good and complacent, it will be repeat of 2004 and 2009, and that is how Cong may want to fight, keeping BJP in over confident.

Also, I learned from one of the journo who is part of poll survey design, that usually no pollsters are paid separately, as they are employees of organizations like Nielsen or CSDS. But for these polls pollsters got money which is unethical and never heard, as told by the journo.

I do not know who I can pass this information, in BJP. I do not know whether they are already aware of it or not. In any case, I thought to share with you at least to keep you posted the update. BJP has to work harder and smarter now on, and ON THE GROUND, not just in rallies or TV debates.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 26 Jan 2014 10:07

wonder why he didnt post that directly to namo or someone senior in BJP

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 26 Jan 2014 10:19

^^Muppalla garu,

The paid surveys from noose media is one thing. However, no political party worth its salt will rely solely on them. Almost all parties have their own internal (and hence, hopefully, unbiased) ways to conduct polls and survey the unvarnished truth.

As for us mango people, maybe we feel we have no option but to suffer paid polls...

However, am happy to note the emergence of efforts like 5forty3 and #AUG on twitter which are able to provide us a more neutral and grounded POV into the polling mood of the nation.

As for the tips and tricks to induce complacency, mainority consolidation and so on, sure these games have been played before etc. But there's the principle of diminishing returns that starts to apply... Lotus hasn;t yet gotten over 2004 to forget that bitter lesson so easily. And the likes of NM and Amit Shah are nobody's fools.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 26 Jan 2014 10:34

amidst the good news, a dilbullah counter curse is long overdue..

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 26 Jan 2014 10:52

Hari Seldon wrote:^^Muppalla garu,

The paid surveys from noose media is one thing. However, no political party worth its salt will rely solely on them. Almost all parties have their own internal (and hence, hopefully, unbiased) ways to conduct polls and survey the unvarnished truth.

As for us mango people, maybe we feel we have no option but to suffer paid polls...

However, am happy to note the emergence of efforts like 5forty3 and #AUG on twitter which are able to provide us a more neutral and grounded POV into the polling mood of the nation.

As for the tips and tricks to induce complacency, mainority consolidation and so on, sure these games have been played before etc. But there's the principle of diminishing returns that starts to apply... Lotus hasn;t yet gotten over 2004 to forget that bitter lesson so easily. And the likes of NM and Amit Shah are nobody's fools.

NaMo keep asking his grass root level and booth level workers to work harder, i guess he knowns all this poll data are BS

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 Jan 2014 11:12

Hari garu,
I and two other frields have put the whole 543 seats in 2009 using these open surveys. Hence will all good news we should read bad news too and trash them using our collective analytical skills. These are times of information overloads and times of heavy manipulated disinformation news days. They guy (not naming here) is pretty connected and has conducted few top class goog hangouts for us the unwashed here. One thing I told him is that the journos are putting bamboo sticks. The minority mobilization against Modi a sure shot thing and they don't need to bump up 30 seats via surveys.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 26 Jan 2014 13:12

I think the BJP will be foolish if they did not already consider Muslim counter-mobilization against Modi.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 26 Jan 2014 16:14

Chandragupta wrote:Word is that in Muzaffarnagar, Jats have told Muslims that they come back to their villages, to their properties, on three conditions : no beard, no azaan and no namaz. FWIW.

You reap what you sow.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 26 Jan 2014 16:36

waaack thooo

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Jan 2014 16:41

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@albatrossinfo 2m

Can vouch for one thing, most pollsters are forced to under-report Modi's popularity because it is creating mathematical inconsistencies!

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 26 Jan 2014 16:43

bhargava wrote:waaack thooo

This is Nandan Nilekani ?

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 26 Jan 2014 16:45

^^ sadly..yes

one more round of ...aaack thooo !!!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Jan 2014 16:50

Tajinder Pal S Bagga ‏@tajinderbagga 23m

Congrats to @narendramodi ji & @smritiirani ji on Launch of #MereSapnoKaBharat Awesome Song By Shaan on the Campaign
-------------------------------------->>

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Jan 2014 16:52

Amit Malviya ‏@malviyamit 32m

Congress's rich legacy.. #MainNahinHum pic.twitter.com/C6INofiMtY
--------------------------------->>

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 26 Jan 2014 16:55

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@albatrossinfo 16m
Can vouch for one thing, most pollsters are forced to under-report Modi's popularity because it is creating mathematical inconsistencies!

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@albatrossinfo 13m
Our survey analysis systems are designed in such a way that such high numbers (of support to Modi) are auto-corrected as errors! #Fact

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@albatrossinfo 4m
Don't think any pollster in his/her life-time will ever see this kinna overwhelming support for one leader in such large sample sizes!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Jan 2014 17:29

Well then, so if cong and lalu ally bjp may well dip to 13 in bihar and based on my calc it is 157 + 13 = 170. Thats 40 seats lesser than the 210 being shown. So Muppalla ji, maybe 170 is the real number

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 26 Jan 2014 18:03

"Don't think any pollster in his/her life-time will ever see this kinna overwhelming support for one leader in such large sample sizes!" - most popular leader in history of mankind - will also mean that BJP is the most popular political party in history yet!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Jan 2014 18:04

BJP PM nominee Modi's blend of Hindutva and development draws in estranged core voters

Anil Kumar Mishra lost faith in the saffron brigade when Atal Bihari Vajpayee government failed to keep its word. A former member of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS), the 44-year-old who hails from Rae Bareli, Uttar Pradesh, was among the several who believed that the Vajpayee led BJP government would act on its three core electoral promises: construction of a Ram temple in Ayodhya; abrogation of Article 370 that grants special status to Jammu and Kashmir and the enforcement of a uniform civil code, which administers the same set of laws to govern people irrespective of their religion, caste and tribe.

..
Nevertheless, Mishra is willing to plumb for the party this time. Thanks to its new poster boy Narendra Modi.

"Modi gives me a sense of excitement. I see a spark in him," said Mishra. "He is a wonderful blend of Hindutva and development. I want to vote once again to make him the PM," he said.

Modi comes down heavily on the Samajwadi Party (SP) government for its blatant appeasement of Muslims, winning brownie points among the majority community.

In his first political rally in Kanpur, in October last, after the communal riots in Muzaffarnagar and Shamli, he accused the SP government of playing vote bank politics and creating hatred among the people.

"SP wants riots in the State. The government is planning to release terror accused from jails so that they can use them in securing the votes of a particular community," said Modi at the rally.

..
Party insiders say that the focus of his next public rally at Shatabdi Nagar ground in Meerut on February 2 will be in exposing the State government's role in the communal riots.

..
The Meerut rally ground, barely 40 kms away from the Muzaffarnagar riot site, promises to provide a vibrant platform for Modi to deliver a strong message to the majority community.

..
"Modi will show a mirror to the real communal parties in his Meerut rally," said the BJP leader. Even with Modi's chutzpah it will not be easy to pull a repeat of 1998, when driven into frenzy by the Ram Janmbhumi movement, BJP had won 57 seats out of the 85 in undivided UP.

Amit Shah, Modi's controversial aid has travelled about 3,000 kms across the State to infuse fresh enthusiasm in the party workers.

The efforts seem to be paying off. For the first time, even Congress leaders are grudgingly acknowledging Modi's pervasive influence on the electorate, albeit in a sardonic way.

"Modi is like paan masala," said a senior Congress leader from Rae Bareli who did not want to be named. "There is hardly any youth in UP's villages who do not have a packet of paan masala in his pocket," said the Congress leader. "The same is the case with Modi, he is there in the minds of every villager."

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Jan 2014 18:12

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 42m

Alliance between Congress, RJD, LJP finalised. Congress sources say announcement within days from now. Secular coalition to counter Modi.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Jan 2014 18:17

pankajs wrote:Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 42m

Alliance between Congress, RJD, LJP finalised. Congress sources say announcement within days from now. Secular coalition to counter Modi.

I wish the surveys were done after this was finalized, we would have got a real picture. If we look at Nielson or CSDS vote shares, even if they ally, BJP should still prevail albeit with a reduced tally, but if the vote shares are a bit off, BJP is in for trouble.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 26 Jan 2014 18:26

muraliravi wrote:Well then, so if cong and lalu ally bjp may well dip to 13 in bihar and based on my calc it is 157 + 13 = 170. Thats 40 seats lesser than the 210 being shown. So Muppalla ji, maybe 170 is the real number

As per ABP, breakup is like this

RJD - 20
INC - 10
LJP - 8
NCP - 2

archan · Post by **archan** » 26 Jan 2014 18:30

pankajs wrote:Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 42m

Alliance between Congress, RJD, LJP finalised. Congress sources say announcement within days from now. Secular coalition to counter Modi.

Isn't Lalu a proven convict, a cheater of the poors money? It would be interesting to see how Congress reconciles an alliance with him and Rahul jee's newfound anti corruption and pro poor stance.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 26 Jan 2014 18:34

^ Secularism sarvo prathma.