India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

[ramana]

RajeshA,
Your compilation of the noes looks like the Vedanta maxim- neti, neti!
Not this, not this!

[RajeshA]

RajeshA,
Your compilation of the noes looks like the Vedanta maxim- neti, neti!
Not this, not this!

Ramana Sir,
Just trying to expand on the "clean and unconditional" waiver from what I have read. It only refers to the starting point of the negotiations.
Some of the lines are wee bit orange also. Some will become black/white on Sept 5.

[Pulikeshi]

They mythology of the waiver:

1. In the begining - it was clean and unconditional
2. Then it was clean but cannot say it is unconditional
3. Now "no lies" it cannot be said it is clean, nor can it be said that it is unconditional

What happened to: Either you are with us or against us?

Looks like Indra (Germany) and other Devataa are making peace with Trishanku...
But, the Devataa from the -
GoraAyatollalands: New Zealand, Switzerland, Netherland, Ireland, Austria-land, etc. haven't sipped the cool-aid yet!

RajeshA: Indian (Trishanku's) Red-Lines are indeed like Brahman!

[ramana]

I find the Netherlands and the Switzerland stance the most interesting. They are proliferation central the former as a source of technology and goods for the AQK Nukemart and the latter as the banker for the same. Every known nuke parts smuggler is connected to these two countries.

[RajeshA]

GoraAyatollalands: New Zealand, Switzerland, Netherland, Ireland, Austria-land, etc. haven't sipped the cool-aid yet!

It would be interesting to know what Trishanku's relations would be like with these midgets in about 30 years time. Wait and See.

[RajeshA]

I find the Netherlands and the Switzerland stance the most interesting. They are proliferation central the former as a source of technology and goods for the AQK Nukemart and the latter as the banker for the same. Every known nuke parts smuggler is connected to these two countries.

Which just shows why they have to prove that they care about non-proliferation. They needed a Ganga to wash away their sins, and this deal is one such Ganga.

[RajeshA]

Pak will not obstruct nuke deal: Qureshi: PTI


As if they could!

[SSridhar]

A new NSG must be formed with only reasonable members who also really contribute to nuclear commerce in it. There is no point in emotional members divorced from reality sitting there.

[vsudhir]

Wasn't it let known a few weeks back via some panicked NPA writings that the US was 'twisting arms' at the NSG and was even threatening to quit the NSG (rendering it beyond meaningless) if the deal was blocked?

What was that all abut, I wonder. Also, wnder why Panda is s quiet. Could it be that sme of these mralistic minnows are actually speaking in panda's voice??

[ramana]

I find the Netherlands and the Switzerland stance the most interesting. They are proliferation central the former as a source of technology and goods for the AQK Nukemart and the latter as the banker for the same. Every known nuke parts smuggler is connected to these two countries.

Which just shows why they have to prove that they care about non-proliferation. They needed a Ganga to wash away their sins, and this deal is one such Ganga.

If they were trying to wash away their mili its understandable. However they were the ones that polluted the Ganga with their proliferation and now they are peeing in the Ganga. The NSG waiver is the way for the rest of the world to correc the old wrong that ws done to India. When the real culprits were their own(p-5 and other NPT countries) they quarantined India.

[Victor]

There was a remark by one of the NSG participants quoted earlier that “everyone knows India’s red lines and nobody has any intention of crossing them”. If that is accurate, then these theatrics are only to see if India blinks. Nothing ventured-nothing gained sort of try on unkil’s part. However, the pipsqueaks have the space to do their dramabaazi only because India has maintained a very responsible & principled silence on its options and compulsions, some of which would make these greenies look like total idiots. It is OK to let the Americans sweat the details since the NSG is their baby but it may be useful to send out clear signals on what those options are, if only to shut these useless actors up for ever.

[putnanja]

I feel India should have accepted the US offer to be an observer in the NSG proceedings. If for nothing else than to ensure that the US is in fact trying hard for a clean exemption. There is a good chance that the US will be more comfortable with some conditions closer to hyde act so that passing it in US congress would be smoother, and would also level the playing field for US companies.

[negi]

Although the NSG meet was not conclusive on paper, what is evident is Non Proliferation is very closely coupled with economic interests , at least this is the case with the major players in the nuclear industry. And that is why no country who has an active civilian and military N programme has voiced concerns over India's case. The one who have voiced their concerns have done so because unlike the French,Americans ,RU or even Japan they dont have much to gain from this, so they have decided to latch on to the NP rhetoric and at least portray a goody goody image of themselves .

[ramana]

No. That makes India a party to the proceedings. And reduces operating space.
let them come to a consensus and if the terms are not right India can walk out. By being a party India cant without being called names.

[Pulikeshi]

Trishanku cannot and need not be a member of the Devataa assembly.
All we want is the Devataa assembly to agree to the said creation of Trishanku's Swarg.
There are no conditionalities to the said Swarg - it exists whether the Devataa want it or not.

Failing which - Vishwamitra is vachan bound to create an alternate universe (read end of NSG!).
End of Story!

[Pulikeshi]

There is a good chance that the US will be more comfortable with some conditions closer to hyde act so that passing it in US congress would be smoother, and would also level the playing field for US companies.

That is hind sight 20/20. The US COTUS came to Hyde in its infinite wisdom.
They can't change the goalpost after having tied their shoe laces together!

[NRao]

India cannot give into any thing. India signed the 123 on certain conditions and therefore cannot give in - else India will have to renegotiate the 123 - again!

What these GPAs do not understand is that they have yet to deal with Russia who will get her pound of blood and flesh on the Iran issue, even though the chances of proliferation there is more probable and dangerous.

[putnanja]

NSG clearance is U.S. responsibility: India

NSG clearance is U.S. responsibility: India

Nuclear cartel to meet again in two weeks to consider amended waiver

Menon now set to fly to Washington from Vienna

Things are really very clear: senior official

Vienna: The United States’ inability to deliver a key part of its side of the July 2005 nuclear bargain with New Delhi became apparent on Friday as the Nuclear Suppliers Group ended an extraordinary plenary meeting without reaching agreement on a proposal to waive its restrictive export guidelines for India.

More crucially, the fact that India will now be asked to accept changes in the draft waiver that could conceivably limit the scope of nuclear cooperation or place conditions on it of one kind or another suggests the three-year-old nuclear deal could well be approaching its most serious break point to date.

Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon is now set to fly directly to Washington from Vienna to discuss the issues which arose in the NSG meeting and examine the American proposals, if any, for a change in the wording of the waiver. But it is apparent that there is little scope for India to accommodate the kind of demands a number of NSG countries made in the two-day meeting.

“Things are really very clear,” a senior official told The Hindu when asked for his reaction to the NSG stalemate. “There was an agreement in 2005 in which we both made certain commitments. We have delivered on all of ours. Now the Americans have to deliver the NSG,” he said, “not us.” In the July 2005 statement, President George W. Bush committed himself to “work with friends and allies to adjust international regimes to enable full civil nuclear energy cooperation and trade with India.” Indian officials say securing NSG clearance by extracting further commitments from India or diluting the scope of cooperation was not part of the bargain.

The NSG, which consists of 45 countries and takes all its decisions by consensus, will now meet again here on September 4 and 5 to reconsider the India question on the basis of a new draft waiver that the U.S. has said it will bring to the group. The dates were informally agreed to but found no mention in the brief communiqué issued by the NSG, presumably because the U.S. needs to secure India’s concurrence to any language change before it is able to come before the suppliers group again.

“Participating governments exchanged views in a constructive manner, and agreed to meet again in the near future to continue their deliberations,” the NSG statement simply noted.

Asked what sort of amendments the American side was asked to make by those NSG countries that were critical of the original proposal, a European diplomat told The Hindu that a number of states had made suggestions on virtually every aspect of the draft. “I think the whole thing will be reformulated, but in a positive way,” he said, requesting that he and his country not be identified out of respect for the NSG’s rules of confidentiality.

Another diplomat said the NSG raised concerns on nuclear testing, adherence to NPT full-scope safeguards, the need for a review mechanism to assess Indian compliance, as well as restrictions on enrichment and reprocessing technology. “There was a reference in the earlier U.S. draft to the desirability of India eventually accepting the NPT and its safeguards that was more positive than what we have now,” the diplomat said. “So, I think America will have to come back to us with a new draft before any decision is possible.”

Speaking to reporters at the end of the meeting, acting U.S. Under Secretary for Arms Control John D. Rood said the U.S. was “pleased with the results of the discussion” and remained “very optimistic” about continuing to make progress “towards this important goal” of permitting civilian nuclear cooperation with India. He noted that “many delegations spoke about this important question” and said the India waiver would “remain something the group continues to work through in a serious manner.”

[Pulikeshi]

I am no expert -
but the ENR is what is targeted.

Of the three items that is causing constipation -
1. Testing
2. Periodic Review
3. ENR

The first two causes instability of Trishanku's swarg and hence is unacceptable.
However, ENR helps Unkil be competitive against Russia/France and
the other Devataa are satisfied that they won something...

My two "dumb" paisa on the matter!

[putnanja]

Finding a fix to the NSG’s code of Omerta

Finding a fix to the NSG’s code of Omerta

Siddharth Varadarajan

Vienna: In keeping with its clubby, secretive character, the Nuclear Suppliers Group has a policy of strict confidentiality. Which means no official briefings or informal readouts of what transpires within, even by those unnamed “Western diplomats” who otherwise are quite happy to throw scraps of information to reporters.

However, with officials from 45 member countries moving in and out of the Japanese mission where the group is meeting, it was possible to glean some sense of the direction in which the cartel’s deliberations were headed. As diplomats made their way out of the building, many ducked aside at the sight of journalists but others proved amenable to being accosted and primed for information.

In general, officials from countries without a dog in the fight, whose governments did not have strong views in favour or against the American proposal to grant India a waiver from the supplier group’s export rules, seemed more inclined to chat with the press than others. And the juniors tended to be more forthcoming than their more seasoned colleagues. One young official from a country strongly opposed to the proposal was about to talk to The Hindu when he caught a glare from a senior colleague and backed off.

“I am sorry but you know the NSG’s proceedings are strictly confidential,” the senior official told this correspondent brusquely, before shepherding the junior diplomat away.

*  *  *

That India still has some lobbying to do to explain why any linkage to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is unacceptable to it became apparent to this correspondent when a group of diplomats from a country strongly in favour of the Indian exemption asked, at the end of an interview to The Hindu, whether it might not be possible for New Delhi to eventually sign the NPT. The diplomats, who had flown in to Vienna from their capital especially for the NSG meeting, actually missed Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon’s briefing for NSG members on Thursday. The NSG had adjourned shortly after 11 a.m. and the Indian briefing started at around 11.30 a.m. However, 30 minutes was obviously not enough for all officials to take the elevator down from the 27th floor of one building, where the Japanese mission is located, walk across to the Vienna International Centre (VIC), collect a pass, and make their way to the board room of the International Atomic Energy Agency that India had commandeered for its special briefing. “By the time we came in, the briefing was already over,” one diplomat lamented. “So could you please tell me what is India’s answer when some countries say you must commit to eventually signing the NPT?”

*  *  *

Insisting that India sign the NPT was the principal slogan raised by Ulrike Lunachek, a member of the Austrian parliament and prominent leader of the Greens, who staged a well-advertised but small protest demonstration outside the NSG meeting on Thursday morning. With two party activists holding a banner aloft and three activists forming her audience, Lunachek attacked the Austrian government for not being more vocal and firm in its opposition to the Indian deal. She accused the coalition government of Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer of currying favour with India in order to win Delhi’s backing for an Austrian bid for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. Sadly for her, there were hardly any journalists to witness the protest, nor any NSG officials, since they had all already moved across to the VIC for the Indian briefing. With Gusenbauer’s government on the way out and fresh elections slated for September, it is evident that the Indian issue is getting reflected in the local politics of this strongly anti-nuclear country. Citizens here voted overwhelmingly in a referendum a few years ago to shut down Austria’s first reactor even before it was ever switched on.

*  *  *

So seriously did India take the NSG leg of the nuclear deal that it fielded one of its most powerful diplomatic delegations to date to hard sell the country’s case to countries that are still sitting on the fence and deal with any amendments the U.S. side might throw at them. Apart from Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon, the Indian officials here included R.B. Grover from the Department of Atomic Energy and D.B. Venkatesh Varma, both of whom were key negotiators during the earlier phases of the deal. Then there was the Prime Minister’s special envoy, Shyam Saran, Geetesh Sharma from the DAE, Naveen Srivastava, who is Director, Foreign Secretary’s Office, and Dr. Virander K. Paul, director in the Prime Minister’s Office. This on top of the multiple delegations that travelled to all the NSG country capitals in the run up to the Vienna meeting. But as the NSG’s deliberations ran aground here, it became apparent to the Indians that the Americans had not invested the same diplomatic energy in convincing their friends and allies across the world.

[ramana]

Dhoka ya perfidy? Or is Bush losing interest?

[Gerard]

NSG clearance is U.S. responsibility: India

[ramana]

SS Menon shouldnt bother going to DC. He should return to Delhi. Going extra mile is seen as sing of weakness.

[Gerard]

Scale of resistance at NSG could derail N-deal

While India and the US had expected about a dozen amendments to be tabled, they were taken aback at the avalanche of "conditions" that came even from countries like Canada and Japan who had earlier pledged support to the exemption.

[Manny]

Time to fire up those Sulfur coals for energy needs. Winter is around the corner! I am sure that would warm up those "Greenies" of Austria!

[putnanja]

NSG deadlock, some say don’t allow enrichment, reprocessing

Front Page

NSG deadlock, some say don’t allow enrichment, reprocessing
Pranab Dhal Samanta
Posted online: Saturday, August 23, 2008 at 0208 hrs Print Email

New Delhi, August 22: The 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group today failed to reach a consensus on the nature of exemption to be granted for India with quite a few countries asking for changes to the current draft presented by the US. The group will now meet again on September 4-5 with Washington planning to use the intervening period to rework the draft with India.

New Delhi is, however, learnt to have stood its ground so far insisting that it was not in a position to accept any amendment that would run against what was agreed on July 18, 2005 and then reflected in the Indo-US 123 agreement. With time running out for the Bush Administration, some hard-nosed diplomacy is expected to follow.

“Participating governments exchanged views in a constructive manner, and agreed to meet again in the near future to continue their deliberations,” said the NSG in a public statement after the two-day meeting in Vienna today.

While no country opposed an exemption for India, a few countries like New Zealand, Ireland and Austria argued the need to address non-proliferation issues in a far more specific manner. In particular, countries wanted the US to spell out the consequences in case India was to conduct a nuclear test in the future. Many other countries suggested technical changes like closing the door on transfer of ENR (enrichment and reprocessing) technology.

US made it clear to NSG that any reference to this will result in India walking away from the nuclear deal which would be more detrimental to wider non-proliferation objectives. More so, it argued that several countries that are not involved in nuclear exports would also benefit from dual-use technology trade with India.

The other two principal suggestions included setting up a review or monitoring mechanism and prohibiting sale of ENR technology. Several countries challenged the first suggestion, as any such mechanism would deter companies looking to make long-term investments in India’s nuclear sector.

However, there seems to be growing consensus on banning sale of ENR technology. Even the India-US 123 agreement does not allow transfer of such technology. Sources said US may push for this because it had been backing an amendment to the NSG guidelines banning ENR transfers.

Only this year did it change its position and proposed a criteria-based approach largely due to growing pressure from countries like Canada and South Africa that were keen to ENR technology trade. But the first criteria in the new US proposal was that ENR trade will be restricted to NPT countries. This suited Canada as it was in sync with its domestic laws.

This proposal was discussed at the Berlin plenary of the NSG but no consensus was achieved after France and Russia raised questions. While this remained pending, India’s case has made matters complicated for Washington. Russia and France oppose any such restriction on India and for its part, Canada would like such a prohibition as it would not be able to compete largely due its domestic laws regardless what NSG says.

As a result, sources said, there is growing pressure that India be kept out of ENR trade for the moment. New Delhi, for its part, argues that having got the right to reprocess in the 123 agreement, it makes little sense to stop access to the technology that would be needed for this.

But given that India says it has its own indigenous ENR capabilities, this issue could be one on which Washington may lean on India to accept a change in a bid to resolve matters in the NSG.

Late tonight, Indian and US delegations met to discuss the future course as the next week will be spent working out a draft that may be acceptable to all sides without impacting the Indo-US nuclear deal negatively.

The biggest handicap for Washington is that it does not have much time as the Congress meets on September 8 and, therefore, a decision will have to be made at the next meeting if the Bush Administration wants to take a shot at completing process during its term.

[putnanja]

Can consider changes in draft, but won’t let it block n-deal: Boucher

Can consider changes in draft, but won’t let it block n-deal: Boucher
Y P Rajesh
Posted online: Saturday, August 23, 2008 at 0218 hrs Print Email

Mumbai, August 22: India and the United States could end up accommodating some minor changes to their nuclear cooperation deal under pressure from the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), but those changes are not inevitable and will only be agreed to if they don’t impede the pact, a top American official said here today.

Washington hopes to place the deal for the final approval of the US Congress on the first day of its next session which starts on September 8 and even though the deal would be as good next year as it is this year, the aim remains to clinch it under President George W Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, said Assistant Secretary of State, Richard Boucher.

Boucher was speaking to reporters in Mumbai even as the NSG began a last day of deliberations in Vienna where some members have asked Washington to consider amendments to the draft it has circulated in

what they say is the larger interest of non-proliferation. Key among them is a need to make it clear that nuclear trade with India would end if New Delhi conducts a nuclear test and a reference to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

“I don’t want to say inevitable,” said Boucher, when asked if the draft was certain to see changes at the NSG. “But I don’t want to lie to you, I can’t rule out that there might be some changes that we could accept. But I can tell you today we are pushing for a clean exception.”

He said questions being raised by member countries about the exemptions being given to India are “good questions” but they had “good answers”. “We don’t see any reason for any changes but we do have to listen to countries. But if it comes down to it that something might be done that is acceptable, we and India could agree to, then we’ll do it. Otherwise we will have to keep answering the questions and keep pushing for a clean exception,” he added.

“But as I said, we are not going to allow anything that will harm or impede cooperation. We are not going to put anything in it that is going to make it impossible to carry out the deal on either side, we are not going to put anything that changes the terms of the agreement. As far as we are concerned we reached the agreement with India, it’s been public through the communiqués, through the statements, and that’s the deal and that’s what you got to say yes or no to,” Boucher said categorically.

New Zealand, Ireland, Austria and Norway, along with Canada, Japan and Australia are holding out at the NSG and seeking amendments to the draft saying failure to do so could damage the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Some of them also want a tougher inspection regime of India’s nuclear facilities and prohibition on fuel enrichment and reprocessing technology.

Boucher said Washington understood where such concerns had their roots as it was the first time such an exception was being made by the NSG. However, this should not be seen as opposition to the deal but as an opportunity to explain it, its implications and benefits to India, the US and the

world. “There are countries which would like different kinds of changes to the text. Some of those may be acceptable, some may not be,” he said.

“It is an exception, but there has to be a certain logic to it if you are making an exception. You can’t say that they have to meet the rule if they are making an exception. Some of these things people understand you can’t do, you can’t change everything about India’s history by having a resolution under the Nuclear Suppliers Group. So I think there are some things that probably everybody knows will not fly,” he said.

[vsudhir]

World hasn't learnt from 1996 when India nuked the CTBT.

Or from 1999 Kargil where India nuked porki dreams of either keeping territory gained by stealth or by enlarging the war and inviting the P5 in.

Or from Kamal nath who has repeatedly nuked loaded WTO conditionalities.

Or from any number of other instances postr JLN wherein India has refused to budge an inch when it comes to givibg up non-negotiable core-interests, i the face of katrina level counterpressure.

World will again refuse to learn when this deal unravels and we proceed to unveil the additional 70,000 tons of raw U deposits that we've just managed to discover. And embark on a massive Th project, n the meantime burning away one of the world's largest and dirtiest coal deposits.

Pity.

The connection with the moralistic rhetoric and empty posturingof the minnows must never falter. Keep the focus on the role of the minnows like a laser beam. Within India, both within and outside govt, let all know who is to blame. Period.

[putnanja]

Mining doubts linger - Experts fail to convince Meghalaya parties

Mining doubts linger
- Experts fail to convince Meghalaya parties
OUR CORRESPONDENT

Shillong, Aug. 22: Union cabinet secretary K.M. Chandrashekar and Atomic Energy Commission chairman Anil Kakodkar today failed to convince the all-party committee on uranium mining and non-governmental organisations in Meghalaya on the need to carry out uranium mining in the state.

The emissaries of the Prime Minister’s Office and experts of the Atomic Energy Commission held separate meetings with the all-party committee and the NGOs on uranium mining in West Khasi Hills district.

Briefing reporters after the meeting, both Chandrashekar and Kakodkar said they had received a mixed response. “Some support uranium mining, some are neutral and some oppose the project,” Chandrashekar said.

He said the Centre did not want to force anyone. “Ultimately, it is upto the government and the people to take a final decision as uranium mining is needed for the country’s energy requirement,” he added.

Kakodkar said the meeting aimed at providing as much information as possible about the merits of uranium mining. “We made it clear that radiation because of uranium mining would be minimal and there would be no health hazards. The land used for mining would be as clean as it was before excavation.”

Kakodkar said the Centre would continue to convince the government and the NGOs in the state on the need to carry out uranium mining.

Chief minister Donkupar Roy, who is also the chairman of the all-party committee, said after the meeting that mining health hazards were still a cause for concern.

“The experts of Atomic Energy Commission explained all aspects of uranium mining to us, but we are waiting for their comprehensive report as the issue of health hazards needs to addressed,” Roy said.

Deputy chief minister H.S. Lyngdoh from the Hill State Peoples Democratic Party said the commission had not been able to allay fears of radiation. “Unless they can protect the people from radiation, we will not be ready to carry out uranium mining. We cannot see people dying.”

The Khasi Students Union, the Federation of Khasi Jaintia and Garo People and the Hynniewtrep National Youth Front opposed the project during the meeting.

KSU leader Samuel Jyrwa said a majority of the people had opposed the project during a public hearing held in West Khasi Hills on June 12 last year.

“We have conveyed our message of cancelling the project to the Prime Minister through the Union cabinet secretary,” he added.

The white paper prepared by the Uranium Corporation of India Limited (UCIL) states that the uranium mined from Mawthabah in West Khasi Hills of Meghalaya would be used to expand the country’s nuclear power capacity upto 20,000 MW by 2020.

Though the initial project was limited to Domiasiat, the UCIL has renamed the project as Kylleng-Pyndeng Sohiong uranium project, considering the vast deposits of uranium in the entire stretch from Wahkaji to Mawthabah villages in West Khasi Hills.

The government has proposed a Rs 1,000-crore project for mining uranium ore at Kylleng-Pyndeng Sohiong and processing it at Mawthabah.

A processing plant will also be set up at Mawthabah for production of magnesium-di-uranate, also known as yellow cake. It would be used by the nuclear fuel complex in Hyderabad to make fuel for the country’s atomic reactors.

[putnanja]

Vienna blow to nuclear deal - NSG puts off decision, cloud on US passage during Bush reign

Vienna blow to nuclear deal
- NSG puts off decision, cloud on US passage during Bush reign
K.P. NAYAR


Washington, Aug. 22: A two-day meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) broke up today without agreement on exempting India from the group’s rules to pave the way for operationalising the Indo-US nuclear deal.

The collapse of the Vienna meeting raises questions about the future of the nuclear deal during the life of the Manmohan Singh government and in the remaining days in office for US President George W. Bush as well as the present US Congress.

Reflecting the gravity of the situation, foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon is expected to fly from Vienna to Washington tomorrow itself, according to Indian embassy sources here.

John Rood, US acting under-secretary of state for arms control and international security, left the NSG meeting and cabled the disappointing news to his boss, secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, amidst indications here that India will come under severe pressure from the Bush administration in the next few days to accept some prescriptive clauses from the NSG in order to move the nuclear deal forward.

As reported exclusively by The Telegraph yesterday, a group of NSG dissenters put Rood and his delegation on the mat by asking for nothing more than incorporating some provisions in America’s Hyde Act into the document allowing a waiver for India from the global rules for nuclear commerce.

“It was a demand no bureaucrat could reject. Rood could not stand up against his country’s legislation at the NSG. The Hyde Act is the law of the land in America,” said one European diplomat who attended the meeting and was privy to discussions on its sidelines.

It was a clever strategy firmed up on Wednesday night by a group of seven NSG members who are against the India waiver — not because they are opposed to India, but because of fears that such a waiver will weaken the global non-proliferation regime.

Today, the “Group of Seven” countries stood their ground when the NSG reconvened and the lack of a mandatory consensus ended in a stalemate over the US draft that would have amended NSG rules in India’s favour.

The immediate future of the Indo-US nuclear deal now hinges on the next date for an NSG meeting.

Even before the group convened in Vienna on Thursday, the US had proposed a second meeting on September 2. This prompted severe resentment among NSG members, who felt they were being pushed around by Washington even before they could deliberate at their first meeting.

Sources in Vienna said there has been a tentative agreement as today’s meeting ended that the NSG would reconvene on September 4 and 5.

But these sources said the majority view in the group was that the next meeting should be held in the third or fourth week of September to coincide with the General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or its board of governors.

These IAEA meetings will bring to Vienna all the key players in the nuclear field from all over the world in any case. If the Group of Seven countries is determined to push the date of the next meeting to the second half of September, the US will have no choice but to agree to a date favoured by the majority of NSG members.

But such a delay would derail the Bush administration’s time table of sending the nuclear deal back to the Congress in the week of September 8 so that all the necessary legislation for operationalising the deal can be wrapped up before the Congress adjourns on September 26 for the US elections.

[Gerard]

deleted

[ramana]

I am sorry they torpedoed the deal themsleves when they listened to Australia and brought that entry into force clause in CTBT which is coercive like the Treaty of Versaiiles. Please make your points but on right arguements.

The saying goes "When there is 50-50 chance of success then there is 90 % chance of failure". Looks like US didnt do their homework and coordinate with their fellow Cartel members. Also if the cartel members have such domestic issues why are they in the cartel? Isnt it superfluous to have them?

I dont like the facile way the Ind express reporter says that India and US will make changes. Since when did Boucher become GOI spokesman? Ind Express should keep its location and its investors separate. Or does Shekar Gupta need a lesson?

India and the United States could end up accommodating some minor changes to their nuclear cooperation deal under pressure from the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), but those changes are not inevitable and will only be agreed to if they don’t impede the pact, a top American official said here today

No changes. India has made all the changes on its side. It has even sacrificed the govt coalition and went thru hoops to keep their end of the bargain, while US has not done enough.

and from KP Nayar

John Rood, US acting under-secretary of state for arms control and international security, left the NSG meeting and cabled the disappointing news to his boss, secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, amidst indications here that India will come under severe pressure from the Bush administration in the next few days to accept some prescriptive clauses from the NSG in order to move the nuclear deal forward.

Sorry no can do. All was done already. GOI has lost lot of political capital in Delhi wiht the Bsuh Admin hardly losing any of their own. And Rood wasnt able to answer why Hyde is domestic to the NSG? And NSG was created by US after 1974 POK I. It was called the Londn Supplier group and targetted the above board countries like India while the same cartel was shipping stuff via AQK network.

Is the US pulling a fast one to pretend that it was the NSG that prevented the deal coming thru?

Whay wasnt Rice on the phones with all those Group of Seven countries? Have the Swiss accounted for all the loot from the Nazis stashed away?What about holocaust victims wealth? And drug traffickers and smugglers from India?

[putnanja]

-deleted

[putnanja]

Given the recent US-Russian spat over Georgia, and the difference of opinion over Iran, is there a chance that Russia might walk out of NSG?

[ramana]

Given the recent US-Russian spat over Georgia, and the difference of opinion over Iran, is there a chance that Russia might walk out of NSG?

And what will that do? MMS if you recall burnt the boat to prevent the deal with Russia. And there were pious statements form the GOI paltan.

[ramana]

Pioneer, 23 August 2008

NSG fails to okay waiver

IANS | Vienna


Meet to be reconvened on September 4
Draft waiver text could be amended: US

The Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) will meet again on September 4-5 to resolve differences that arose after some members insisted on including a provision in the draft to halt all nuclear commerce with India if it conducted further tests with the Indian delegation making it clear it will not accept any such conditions in the document.

The 45-members NSG ended its two-day meeting here Friday but could not come to a decision on whether its existing ban should be lifted to begin business on civil nuclear energy with India.

Well-placed sources said the United States, which had taken the initiative of preparing the draft for the NSG members, has been asked to prepare a fresh document that could be acceptable to the Group and India.

But so far there has been no indication from the Indian side whether it was prepared to accept a new draft. However, the NSG decided that since it could not resolve the differences it was better to gain some more time and meet yet again in September.

The venue of the next NSG meeting can either be in Vienna or Berlin, since Germany is the current chairman of the Group.

Even before the NSG meeting ended, it became clear that the proposed provision suggested by some members to the draft was becoming the sticking point for a final decision from the Group on the Indian waiver.

Most members are in favour of lifting the current ban that prevents nuclear commerce between the NSG and a non-signatory to the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) like India. But some NSG members insist that it should not be lifted unless New Delhi formally says no to further nuclear tests.

India had made it clear it will not accept any "new" provisions in the draft that the United States had prepared for NSG before its two-day meeting began here Thursday.

"There is no question of India accepting any conditions or any new provision in the draft," Indian diplomatic sources said.

India has announced a voluntary moratorium on further tests, but it has not signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) that prevents countries from conducting further tests.

Some NSG members like Austria, Ireland and Switzerland have serious reservations of giving India a "clean waiver" without a formal assurance from it that there will be no further tests.

Sources said these members have suggested that the provision to stop all commerce with India on civil nuclear energy be brought in if New Delhi conducts any tests in future.

Asked whether India will walk out from the talks if it does not get a "clean waiver," Indian sources said: "We are not even a member of the NSG. If at all, it is the Americans who should stage a walkout."

The US has been engaged in hectic lobbying with the Indian delegation that include Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon and the Prime Minister's special envoy Shyam Saran to agree to what was described as "subtle" changes in the draft.

A lot may depend on the final wording and whether the Indian delegation is comfortable with it. But if it feels the new language to be "objectionable", it may reject it altogether.

Attempts are also on by members of the US delegation to convince the NSG members, particularly those who are keen on the provision in the draft, to drop the idea. If that happens the possibility of a clean waiver from the NSG, with the support of the 45-member countries, may be reached by the end of the second day's meeting Friday.

Till Thursday, when the NSG members began their two-day meeting here, both India and the US seemed hopeful with John Rood, US under secretary, arms control and international security, saying he was "optimistic that we will be successful in this process."

From the Indian point of view, the mood remained upbeat, as Menon's briefing to the NSG members seemed to have had a "positive and satisfying" effect on them.

Answering queries from the members, the foreign secretary had tried to convince them why the lifting of the existing ban will not only benefit India but also the 45-members of the NSG and strengthen the global non-proliferation regime.

The mood, however, seemed to have changed after some of the NSG members started insisting that the provision to halt commerce with India if it conducts further tests be introduced in the draft.

Indications that the decision could be delayed emerged during the day when US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher said in Mumbai that some amendments would be made to the draft waiver moved at the NSG.

A doubt comes whether all this was a charade. The draft waiver provided by US already has the 2g clause I find objectionable. Maybe it should have been there earlier, so that it can be insterted as a negotiating tactic. Now the US wants to insert more severe clauses to soothe the non performers objections? What do the Swiss, Austria, Ireland and New Zealand contribute to Nuclear trade? The Swiss provide the banking for clandestine trade but for overt trade?

Looks like bazaar tactics.

The US can convince the NSG to give clean waiver or share with India the test data to prevent future need for tests just as was done with the PRC and French.

[putnanja]

Hang on India, say N-clubbers

Hang on India, say N-clubbers

''Waiver text could be amended'
August 22, 2008
Amit Baruah, Hindustan Times
Email Author
New Delhi, August 22, 2008
First Published: 19:27 IST(22/8/2008)
Last Updated: 00:11 IST(23/8/2008)

It’s going to take a while longer. That was the message from Vienna on Friday, where a two-day Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting ended without a decision on India being able to source nuclear materials from members of the 45-country club.

Western diplomats, however, told the Hindustan Times that the outlook was good for India and the atmosphere during the two days of meetings was "not poisonous".

The conditions All nuclear trade will end if India tests a nuclear device again.
India must agree to additional protocol with IAEA, meaning more access to the atomic watchdog.
No transfer of uranium-enrichment technologies.
Termination clause if India walks out of safeguards accord with IAEA.

The NSG will now meet on September 4 and 5 to take a final call on a waiver for India.

“India will get its exemption. But there will have to be some fine-tuning of the draft to take on board the concerns of others,” an Indian official said after the meeting.

The NSG said in a terse, four-line statement, “Participating governments exchanged views in a constructive manner, and agreed to meet again in the near future to continue their deliberations.”

John Rood, the US acting undersecretary of state for arms control, told reporters in Vienna that he remained very optimistic about getting the nuclear deal through the NSG.

In a radio interview, New Zealand’s Disarmament Minister Phil Goff spilled the beans that eight countries — his own, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark — were working in concert to make changes to the Amercian “waiver” draft.

The octet was trying to find a way of accommodating the desires of the Indian and American governments while ensuring that any exemption granted would be supportive of non-proliferation rather than working in the opposite direction, Goff said.

These countries were pushing to end all nuclear cooperation with India should it test a nuclear device again, restrict the supply of uranium-enrichment technologies and build a review clause into any waiver document.

All this is similar to the provisions of the Hyde Act, an enabling legislation passed by the US Congress in 2006, which permits Washington to engage in nuclear commerce with India.

Also, they wanted a termination clause if India opted out of the August 1 safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency and return all material secured on account of the NSG waiver.

The Associated Press news agency, meanwhile, reported from Vienna that the U.S. was expected to present a revised proposal to exempt India from NSG rules by the beginning of next week.

In Mumbai, US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher prepared the ground for changes in the draft text circulated by Washington to grant India exemption from NSG guidelines.

“I don’t want to lie to you...I can’t really lie. There might be some changes that we could accept. But we are pushing for a clean text,” Boucher said at a press briefing.

“My colleagues in the (United) States and New Delhi are bringing all the pieces together. All the commitments are there; we’re working towards fulfilling them,” said Boucher.

“We can’t anticipate any of the changes, but won’t put down anything that makes it harder to achieve an agreement either,” Boucher took the view.

The American official felt that most countries he had interacted with were positive towards India. “They understand the benefits of co-operation with India…We are trying to explain these benefits and the nuances of the deal in our meetings with nuclear suppliers, to answer their questions and figure out how to make this happen.”

With inputs from Purva Mehra in Mumbai

[sivab]

http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/23/stories ... 731200.htm

Conditions mooted for Indian nuclear waiver
Siddharth Varadarajan

“We don’t want to scuttle deal,” say NSG diplomats

Vienna: Confronted with demands for amendments, the United States told the Nuclear Suppliers Group on Friday that it was confident of coming up with a new draft waiver for India from the cartel’s export rules which would respect both the non-proliferation concerns expressed by members as well as the red lines laid down by New Delhi.

But whether Washington will really be able to conjure up a magic formula of this type would depend crucially on whether there is in fact any political slack left in the position of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the United Progressive Alliance government, hanging on as they are to power by a slender thread of parliamentary support.

Main issues

Giving an account of the main issues which saw the NSG’s two-day meeting end inconclusively here on Friday, a diplomat from a participating government told The Hindu that these revolved around the fears expressed by many in the group of not being able to do anything in the event of India reneging on the non-proliferation commitments it was making in order to get the waiver in the first place.

NSG diplomats said they were unable to understand why India would want to object to the group restating its own belief in the desirability of all countries acceding to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. “India is not a member of the NSG so any such statement of principle by us would clearly not be binding on them,” said a diplomat. At the same time, the diplomat said the NSG was aware of the sensitivity the issue had already raised in India following an earlier American attempt to incorporate this notion in the draft waiver. “I think this is one issue the NSG is likely to back away from if the U.S. comes back in September and says India will simply not agree to this,” one NSG official said.

On India’s testing moratorium, an NSG diplomat said nobody seriously expected India to sign the CTBT as a precondition for the waiver. “What needs to be looked at is how to deal with the new situation which would be created were India to test again.” Some countries wanted the NSG waiver to terminate nuclear cooperation immediately, while others wanted a more explicit consultation process going beyond that which was already envisaged in paragraph 16 of the guidelines.

The question of enrichment and reprocessing technology and equipment is also proving contentious, especially given the NSG’s failure to reach agreement among themselves about a general tightening of export rules. “We have been discussing this for years, even before the India issue came along, so some countries have suggested our ‘India decision’ postpone a waiver on ENR pending a final revision of the NSG’s guidelines on this,” an NSG country official said.

The final contentious issue at the NSG this week was whether to incorporate a ‘review’ provision in the proposed guideline waiver for India. “Some countries are suggesting having some kind of monitoring mechanism to assess the extent to which India is abiding by its non-proliferation commitments,” one diplomat said. But other countries favoured making their own national assessments on this question, rather than being tied down to an NSG-wide perception on Indian compliance.

Though virtually all of these suggestions and ideas are unlikely to find many takers in India, the U.S. delegation told the NSG they were confident of finding a compromise. “I think it also needs to be emphasised that none of the countries which raised these objections were saying, ‘No, we should not be doing this for India’,” a western European diplomat told The Hindu. “But they want some acknowledgment of the importance of their own commitment to the NPT and non-proliferation principles in general.” Asked to make a prediction about what would happen next, the diplomat said: “We know there are some demands which would effectively scuttle this deal as far as India is concerned. But I don’t think that is where anyone wants this process to end up.”

[awagaman]

http://svaradarajan.blogspot.com/2008/0 ... clear.html

Dateline Vienna: Conditions mooted for Indian nuclear waiver

They have their wish list but most NSG countries who demanded changes in the draft waiver for India in the special plenary of the nuclear cartel's meeting in Vienna do not want the deal to be scuttled...

23 August 2008
The Hindu

Conditions mooted for Indian nuclear waiver

Siddharth Varadarajan

“We don’t want to scuttle deal,” say NSG diplomats

Vienna: Confronted with demands for amendments, the United States told the Nuclear Suppliers Group on Friday that it was confident of coming up with a new draft waiver for India from the cartel’s export rules which would respect both the non-proliferation concerns expressed by members as well as the red lines laid down by New Delhi.

But whether Washington will really be able to conjure up a magic formula of this type would depend crucially on whether there is in fact any political slack left in the position of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the United Progressive Alliance government, hanging on as they are to power by a slender thread of parliamentary support.

Main issues

Giving an account of the main issues which saw the NSG’s two-day meeting end inconclusively here on Friday, a diplomat from a participating government told The Hindu that these revolved around the fears expressed by many in the group of not being able to do anything in the event of India reneging on the non-proliferation commitments it was making in order to get the waiver in the first place.

NSG diplomats said they were unable to understand why India would want to object to the group restating its own belief in the desirability of all countries acceding to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. “India is not a member of the NSG so any such statement of principle by us would clearly not be binding on them,” said a diplomat. At the same time, the diplomat said the NSG was aware of the sensitivity the issue had already raised in India following an earlier American attempt to incorporate this notion in the draft waiver. “I think this is one issue the NSG is likely to back away from if the U.S. comes back in September and says India will simply not agree to this,” one NSG official said.

On India’s testing moratorium, an NSG diplomat said nobody seriously expected India to sign the CTBT as a precondition for the waiver. “What needs to be looked at is how to deal with the new situation which would be created were India to test again.” Some countries wanted the NSG waiver to terminate nuclear cooperation immediately, while others wanted a more explicit consultation process going beyond that which was already envisaged in paragraph 16 of the guidelines.

The question of enrichment and reprocessing technology and equipment is also proving contentious, especially given the NSG’s failure to reach agreement among themselves about a general tightening of export rules. “We have been discussing this for years, even before the India issue came along, so some countries have suggested our ‘India decision’ postpone a waiver on ENR pending a final revision of the NSG’s guidelines on this,” an NSG country official said.

The final contentious issue at the NSG this week was whether to incorporate a ‘review’ provision in the proposed guideline waiver for India. “Some countries are suggesting having some kind of monitoring mechanism to assess the extent to which India is abiding by its non-proliferation commitments,” one diplomat said. But other countries favoured making their own national assessments on this question, rather than being tied down to an NSG-wide perception on Indian compliance.

Though virtually all of these suggestions and ideas are unlikely to find many takers in India, the U.S. delegation told the NSG they were confident of finding a compromise. “I think it also needs to be emphasised that none of the countries which raised these objections were saying, ‘No, we should not be doing this for India’,” a western European diplomat told The Hindu. “But they want some acknowledgment of the importance of their own commitment to the NPT and non-proliferation principles in general.” Asked to make a prediction about what would happen next, the diplomat said: “We know there are some demands which would effectively scuttle this deal as far as India is concerned. But I don’t think that is where anyone wants this process to end up.”

Labels: Nuclear Issues

[ramana]

See the diff between the Hyde Act and the NSG waiver is the former is a local legislation that is overridden by international agreements. The NSG waiver is not a local legislation but an international agreement. So India cannot accept any Hyde like language in the NSG waiver. Anyone pressing for it either is unaware of what they are pressing for or fully intend to sabotage the deal.

India should inform the S they have not kept their part of the bargain and go back to the Capital. The US if they are interested can come back with a clean waiver. It takes effort to be a superpower and not roll over for non performers.

Its disinegenous to claim they dont want to scuttle the deal when the clauses they seek are unacceptable. What kind of BS is that?

Its not like India wants to test just for fun. It will test when it faces an exestential threat. Sitting in Europe or far away islands one can afford to be preachy. India lives in a tough neighborhood exaceberated by some of the very preachy NSG members like Netherlands, Swiss and Austria.