Bharat Rakshak

ramana wrote:Singha, Take a look at the map. Maldives is closer to Equator than Sriharikota.

Also, the southernmost islands are close to Diego Garcia.

ArjunPandit wrote: Playing devil's advocate here. What does maldives have to offer us in long term
1. strategic access: As people say will be gone in next 30 years
2. People: Well the demography is not the best suited for us given their possibility of already infiltration with Chinese or pakistanis
3. Economic benefit: well their debt will come along with them.

1. 30 years is one generation! In one generation, the world will change.
This is better than Chacha giving up Cocos to Myanmar and now in Chinese hold.
2. Yet they voted for a democratic govt that is friendly to India.
3. Debt will be restructured by China.

Bring it on.
BTW devils advocate type of safe thinking is what babucracy did.

After this election I don't think anyone in Delhi is planning to let it go again despite how many devils.

This is the reality.....

Maldives wil not go under
Rocks will be dumped to raise it higher thats all
If the dutch can live for centuries under level so can maldives

°^^ thanks sir, no restructuring only repudiation. This is one acupuncture point that need to twist. Let them bear pain. This has the potential of triggering their collapse if not economical but definitely from a prestige point and giving them good headaches.
As for me, my natural viewpoint is to integrate as many indics as possible in the current Indian state, be it BD, Nepal, sindh, balochis and Myanmar

Alright here is out offer, strangely from a japanese paper:

1 billion in low interest soft loans, in return permanent basing of our troops.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... China-debt

nam wrote:Alright here is out offer, strangely from a japanese paper: 1 billion in low interest soft loans, in return permanent basing of our troops.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... China-debt

A new loan to replace an older loan? I am not sure if this will be seen as the right thing to do, especially if India were to shape the locals' opinions to its favor.

Singha wrote:Maldives wil not go under. Rocks will be dumped to raise it higher thats all. If the dutch can live for centuries under level so can maldives

The Dutch have a vast continent of Europe to fall back on their low lying plains in case the dykes fail. Do what the chinis did in South China Sea (or East Indian Sea).

We cannot give away free money to pay off Chinese debt and get them off the hook. It will set a trend. Next will be Nepal, who will ask for aid to pay off Chinese loan.

Soft loan is the right way. Low interest, very long term loan. After a while we give the remaining amount as aid. Maldives now has the option of defaulting on some of the amount and repaying the remaining.

The Chinese need to be made to take a haircut for their behavior.

The few 100 m/s delta v advantage from launching from near the equator is vastly overrated especially if of the launch site is in the middle of nowhere - the logistical headache will far over weigh the minor delta v gain. Only France launches from near the equator (they can't launch from continental Europe), Sea Launch which used to launch from a ship is now out of business.

nam wrote:Alright here is out offer, strangely from a japanese paper:

1 billion in low interest soft loans, in return permanent basing of our troops.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... China-debt

Doval ji seems to be at all places all the time.( seen in the article linked pic overseeing Modi and Nasheed hugging)

Reminds me of Forest Gump where Tom Hanks has his pic in every important event in History

Singha wrote:Maldives wil not go under
Rocks will be dumped to raise it higher thats all
If the dutch can live for centuries under level so can maldives

cost of doing that kind of engineering for Male city with total rebuilding itself will sink 300K into another couple of billion more in debt.
it might be better for the people to migrate or buy land else where and move entire country.

nam wrote:We cannot give away free money to pay off Chinese debt and get them off the hook. It will set a trend. Next will be Nepal, who will ask for aid to pay off Chinese loan.

Soft loan is the right way. Low interest, very long term loan. After a while we give the remaining amount as aid. Maldives now has the option of defaulting on some of the amount and repaying the remaining.

The Chinese need to be made to take a haircut for their behavior.

So be it if Nepal needs to be bailed out.

Folks right since Independence, the British have nurtured a fear among the near abroad of India that they will be swallowed by India.
This kept elites in these countries to invite, UK, US and China in that order.
And its China that is swallowing them up.

Now they are seeing the wrong advice given by UK.
And MEA with Nehruvian mindset would harangue and browbeat these folks to push them farther away.
Still recall that lady IFS officer* giving lectures on Nepal in mid 1980s which were ridiculous.

Please take of those distorting glasses and see the reality.

* later she became NSAB member!!!

I have no issues giving aid to our neighboring countries and allies. I do have issues when that money is been paid to the Chinese.

We don't want to create a situation where a anti-India gov takes loan from China and when a pro-Indian government comes, we end up paying to save them!

The cycle then repeats. We need our allies irrespective of whoever will come to power on our side.

So a proper stick & carrot rule should be followed when we give aid.

Arima wrote:

Singha wrote:Maldives wil not go under
Rocks will be dumped to raise it higher thats all
If the dutch can live for centuries under level so can maldives

cost of doing that kind of engineering for Male city with total rebuilding itself will sink 300K into another couple of billion more in debt.
it might be better for the people to migrate or buy land else where and move entire country.

India is that foolish country that will allow them to do so and a great deal of these free loaders are already here, with Indian jobs, own houses and getting even more of their relatives across every day.

Such a thing will also happen to the beedis and guess what ?? a very great number of them are already here, changing demographics and voting patterns and clamoring for sharia law. More coming as we speak and also bringing their rohingya friends across.

We have yemenis, iraqis, afghanis, iranis and what not already here on refugee status.

All their war wounded come here too with ISIS clandestinely paying many of the bills. Our greedy corporate hospitals in dilli are not asking too many questions. as long as they are raking it in by the bucketfuls.

Please don't get hysterical. Read the article. There is talk about security arrangement. Let us first see what it is.

What I will be interested in is what will Chinese do next?

3 billion is quite a small change for the Chinese. Nothing stop them to write off 1 billion and make 2 billion a very long term loan.

If they become "big hearted", then they could make a deal, which could undercut our offer.

And I willing to bet, Maldives will take the Chinese offer, if it is better than ours.

https://twitter.com/airnewsalerts/statu ... 7347724288
#Maldives' President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih arrives in New Delhi on three-day visit to India.

I am glad we are having this friendly, open-ended discussion on the future of Maldives as a real estate. My advice is still on turning Maldives into a protectorate of India through a plebiscite a la Sikkim. All citizens will have an automatic right to settle in India if and when their island sinks. Expand India's economic zone to include Maldives Pay off the minuscule chini debt (that way, no monkey on Maldives back).

The rest is obvious.

The various state governments do corruption annually that is 100x of what Maldives owes the Chinese.
If India is serious about keeping buffer states, then there are no free lunches.

We can't be in a situation where india's neighbours remain poor, and India develops. They can develop faster if India helps, invests, protects them. They can achieve higher standards of living than us, because of their small size, with our help

That is a goal, and investment that should be targeted. And our investments will need to be protected aggressively
The pontification and lecturing by External affaris mandrains needs to end

Gagan wrote:The various state governments do corruption annually that is 100x of what Maldives owes the Chinese....The pontification and lecturing by External affaris mandrains needs to end

Agree.

This is a historic, one time opportunity. Don't lose it. Recall Nehru gave away Gwadar ($1 Mn?) and Kalat ("too far to manage!!"). Nehru even gave up on a seat at the UNSC and gave it to the chinese.

India's history is strewn with missed and lost opportunities because of individual egos, myopia and shortness of leadership.

nam wrote:I have no issues giving aid to our neighboring countries and allies. I do have issues when that money is been paid to the Chinese.

We don't want to create a situation where a anti-India gov takes loan from China and when a pro-Indian government comes, we end up paying to save them!

The cycle then repeats. We need our allies irrespective of whoever will come to power on our side.

So a proper stick & carrot rule should be followed when we give aid.

If the invoice was for 3 B dollars.. the real money owed may be close to 1 b- the actual cost for the work they did.. If that money can be given by India over a period of time with strict deliverable (towards having our presence there).. then why not..

Maldives can always go for bankruptcy if cheen dont give a 66% discount on their inflated bill

@mods suggest the two Maldives thread be merged, don't think there is a need for 2 any more.

nam wrote:Alright here is out offer, strangely from a japanese paper:

1 billion in low interest soft loans, in return permanent basing of our troops.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... China-debt

how can anything be guaranteed if things sour with the govt. (the next one or later). Can troops refuse to leave if the Malsivian govt decides to junk it? Serious question.

China's string of pearls 'go' approach is working. That's 1 billion less for desi army, civil infra or R&D, new LCA lines etc.

It would do far less harm than having the Chinese open their own base right under our nose in one of their atolls...They were on their way of getting a permanent base in Maldives before the whole election googly turned everything upside down (for them that is)...it was Indias hands off approach which gave the chinis full freedom in entering our own backyard...Their naval vessels including submarines now visit the Srilankan ports frequently...forcing our navy to spend time and effort in monitoring them..Imagine them having one more base in Male!... We could as well hand over the keys if Indian Ocean to PLANavy...

SriKumar wrote:how can anything be guaranteed if things sour with the govt. (the next one or later). Can troops refuse to leave if the Maldivian govt decides to junk it?

That's why you have a base there to prevent such as eventuality.

jpremnath wrote:It would do far less harm than having the Chinese open their own base right under our nose in one of their atolls...They were on their way of getting a permanent base in Maldives before the whole election googly turned everything upside down (for them that is).....

If India is going to spend 1 billion $, and something sours, and their govt asks troops to leave (like GMR airport was kicked out after completing the project), will the troops stay put. Or are they obligated to leave under agreements as per Maldivian/Indian/UN or United Federation of Planets law.

If this is a possibility, they take the money and have India open their base. In 2 or 5 years time, a new govt. forms with 'help' from peaceful Pakistan, gets cosy with China, takes their help with 'infrastructure' and asks India to vacate. This would be more harmful. (The GMR airport horsesh*t was adjudicated in Singaporean courts and there was not a thing that India could do after Maldivian position was upheld, other than to say 'satyameva jayate'; since India went by the law). What if China in future says 'all loans forgiven, we are brothers, here take some more'.

The question is whether India is willing to abide by agreements it signed to, should a democratically elected Maldives govt. in future decide that they like chop suey more than channa masala. One way or another, this is a question of Malsives and its sovereignity. The answer may not be in the public domain though. Effectively, Malsives need to (at a minimum) sell a few islands to India in perpetuity and relenquish all rights... and declare this openly.

SriKumar wrote:

jpremnath wrote:It would do far less harm than having the Chinese open their own base right under our nose in one of their atolls...They were on their way of getting a permanent base in Maldives before the whole election googly turned everything upside down (for them that is).....

If India is going to spend 1 billion $, and something sours, and their govt asks troops to leave (like GMR airport was kicked out after completing the project), will the troops stay put. Or are they obligated to leave under agreements as per Maldivian/Indian/UN or United Federation of Planets law.

If this is a possibility, they take the money and have India open their base. In 2 or 5 years time, a new govt. forms with 'help' from peaceful Pakistan, gets cosy with China, takes their help with 'infrastructure' and asks India to vacate. This would be more harmful. (The GMR airport horsesh*t was adjudicated in Singaporean courts and there was not a thing that India could do after Maldivian position was upheld, other than to say 'satyameva jayate'; since India went by the law). What if China in future says 'all loans forgiven, we are brothers, here take some more'.

The question is whether India is willing to abide by agreements it signed to, should a democratically elected Maldives govt. in future decide that they like chop suey more than channa masala. One way or another, this is a question of Malsives and its sovereignity. The answer may not be in the public domain though. Effectively, Malsives need to (at a minimum) sell a few islands to India in perpetuity and relenquish all rights... and declare this openly.

The threat to India will be by implication and the ummah will continue to feed off the Indian teat.

Once the freebie route is firmly established, they will bleed us dry.

taqiya has a major part to play here.

We must have complete ownership with sovereign guarantees and permanent basing rights.

Don't forget that the unseen opposition here is both saudi and paki.

SriKumar wrote:If India is going to spend 1 billion $, and something sours, and their govt asks troops to leave (like GMR airport was kicked out after completing the project), will the troops stay put. Or are they obligated to leave under agreements as per Maldivian/Indian/UN or United Federation of Planets law.

If we have troops there, then they wouldnt have the balls to ask us to leave...it would be in our clasp..If they still ask, then it means our diplomats did not do their job..If 1 billion $ is your problem, then please take a look at the amount of money we throw in at our PSUs like Air India which are nothing less than bottomless pits..Compared to all that, this is a very good real estate investment...

SriKumar wrote:If this is a possibility, they take the money and have India open their base. In 2 or 5 years time, a new govt. forms with 'help' from peaceful Pakistan, gets cosy with China, takes their help with 'infrastructure' and asks India to vacate. This would be more harmful. (The GMR airport horsesh*t was adjudicated in Singaporean courts and there was not a thing that India could do after Maldivian position was upheld, other than to say 'satyameva jayate'; since India went by the law). What if China in future says 'all loans forgiven, we are brothers, here take some more'.

If we have a solid presence in that country, no one else will dare to influence Male..even if they try, do you think any Male politician will risk the ire of a country whose armed soldiers are stationed meters away from your presidential palace? All these influencing by the Chinis and Pakis happened before because we let them..we had a completely handsoff approach which ended up damaging our strategic position significantly..

we need to expand the male airport by dumping rocks to build a chinese style extention and create a coast guard and naval air base therein as annexe to male airport. will serve as a visible reminder of our presence.

same needs to be done for Gan island and its addu anchorage area.

its amazing one of the top5 military powers in the world has to do some much thinking how to manage a midget smaller than bengaluru city. a couple of tight slaps to all miscreants and deportation to a rock in the andamans must be in place.

Singha wrote:......its amazing one of the top5 military powers in the world has to do some much thinking how to manage a midget smaller than bengaluru city....

Bangalore city?? Maldives has a pop of 4.5 lakhs!!..that is probably smaller than Indira Nagar!

India to assist Maldives with $1.4 billion. There is going to be some security arrangements but no details.

jpremnath wrote:

SriKumar wrote:If India is going to spend 1 billion $, and something sours, and their govt asks troops to leave (like GMR airport was kicked out after completing the project), will the troops stay put. Or are they obligated to leave under agreements as per Maldivian/Indian/UN or United Federation of Planets law.

If we have troops there, then they wouldnt have the balls to ask us to leave...it would be in our clasp..If they still ask, then it means our diplomats did not do their job...

I find your confidence in Maldivians' sense of apprehension in the presence of Indian troops touching (and if Maldives do not respond with right degree of fear, then it is the fault of GOI).

If this happens, after that what are we left with- some of GOI diplomats to blame. Thanks for clarifying your position

I am talking about the exact opposite by the way- will *India* have the gumption to publicly flout the agreement (if certain unforeseen things happen and safeguards are not in place).
This decision needs to taken, and lessons of Bangladesh apply.

And if the maldivians decide to break their word, and agreement, GOI -today- has to (internally) decide how far they will go.

Will India be comfortable with being called an 'occupying force' in Maldives (in distant future). ? This is the real question. Time to make those decisions by the GOI is now. I have no doubt that Indian army and navy will make short work of China in Naldives with or without the support of Maldives.

you have made your position clear and we are talking about different things. Also details of agreement of such sensitivity (will involve China and Pakistan) will not be in the public domain. So trying to not speculate here.

^^ I did not understand your concern..is it about the 1.4B $?

“For Maldives’ social and economic development we are providing a financial assistance of $1.4 billion in the form of budgetary support, currency swap agreements and concessional lines of credit...

This is the official press release..so its not a complete throwaway ..

Even if it was, is it going to be such a big deal? We have thrown away atleast 6 billion Dollars in Air India alone in the last few years...And we keep throwing more at unproductive government expenses every year....If the babus signed off on giving away 1.4b, then I am sure the powers that be has assured them that it wont be vain...

If your concern is that even after spending so much money, the Maldivians will turn on the coin, then I would like to believe that the GoI and the babus has learned their lesson from having a handsoff approach before.. We used to give our chotta neighbours pennies in aid..and when the Chinis came with big pocket, they naturally went to them..and who can blame them?

Lest some of us forget what transpired around six months ago in Maldives, I would like to present, again, a scenario of what could happen if India does not step up to the plate and do the right thing.

Maldives, Pakistan Discuss Joint EEZ Patrolling in Indian Ocean Nation
02/APR/2018

Ringing alarm bells in India, Maldives and Pakistan have discussed the possibility of joint patrol of the vast exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the strategically-located Indian Ocean state during the visit of the Pakistan army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa.

He (Bajwa) is the highest ranking foreign visitor to Maldivian shores since the imposition of the state of emergency on February 4 and its subsequent lifting after 45 days.

He was invited by Maldives National Defence Force chief Major General Ahmed Shiyam, who also greeted him on arrival at Malé.

But the key phrase which is raising eyebrows in India is in a read-out of the meeting between the Pakistani visitor and the Maldivian defence minister.

“During the meeting with Maldivian defence minister Adam Shareef Umar and Pakistani military chief, they discussed about supporting the Maldives with military training, medical aid and jointly patrolling the Maldivian Exclusive Economic Zones,” said the press release of the Maldivian defence and national security ministry.

The discussion about joint patrol by Maldivian and Pakistani naval forces in the EEZ would certainly raise the stakes for India.

An official pointed that, if true, the joint patrol between Maldivian and Pakistani naval forces would certainly be a ‘redline’ for India.

Now, aren't $1.4 Bn worth every penny? Think of the alternative. This arms length attitude reminds me of the famous utterance by Shakespeare in the play "King Richard".

https://thewire.in/south-asia/maldives- ... ean-nation

Around six-seven months ago...

Pakistan And China Fill Space In Maldives Willfully Vacated By India

Pakistan and China are filling the strategic space in the Maldives willfully vacated by India on account of its quarrel with the Abdulla Yameen regime.

China has been in the Maldives with investments since the Mohamed Nasheed era (2008-2012). And it has been going strong pumping US$ 1.5 billion into major infrastructural projects since Abdulla Yameen came to power in 2013. But Pakistan is a newcomer.

Sensing a gap, Islamabad is now beginning to fill it. The Pakistani army chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, was in the Maldives this weekend and had called on President Yameen on Sunday.

China has already warned any Indian military intervention will be resisted by it.

However, a recent report in The Indian Express quoted an unnamed high Indian official as saying that India has no intention of militarily intervening in the Maldives and that it is not even worried about China’s investments in South Asia – the traditional Indian backyard.

But India continues to boycott the Maldives.

When President Yameen wanted to send a Special Envoy to explain his stand on the imposition of a State of Emergency, on February 6, India refused to entertain him. The Maldivian envoy in New Delhi has been unable to take up the matter with officials of the Ministry of External Affairs.

Having been a long standing player in Maldives, India could have played a role in ending the conflict between the duly elected President and the opposition, and restored peace and democracy in a diplomatic and constructive way.

I hope this time, it is not a repeat of the grave error that was committed seven months ago.

https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/ ... d-By-India

Delhi Defence Review
@delhidefence
Dec 14
Ex #Ekuverin2018- A Joint Training Exercise between Indian Army & Maldives National Defence Force commenced at Composite Training Centre, Maafilafushi, Maldives, to be held from 14 till 29 Dec 2018.
The Indian side represented by a platoon of Madras Regiment.

ShauryaT wrote:

ramana wrote:Singha, Take a look at the map. Maldives is closer to Equator than Sriharikota.

Also, the southernmost islands are close to Diego Garcia.

Hanbantota/ Galle is a much better deal for a launch site with backup land infrastructure and easy access logistics, which is another reason why desh should perhaps cultivate SL and keep out the cheen from there. Right now, launches from Thumba have to do the infamous "dog's leg" to avoid overflying SL during the high-risk ascent phase.
Maybe Nicobar is even better if sufficiently developed.

On the rock buildup to counter ocean level rise, its a very interesting idea, and cheen has the inside track from all the Splatrin tamasha. The issue is the occasional storm surge, not steady state ocean level, IIRC. So a circle of dredged rock should provide some decent protection. As a national priority this should be doable, as a systematic long-term project. Unfortunately most IO islands are remains of a huge volcanic crater rim, so I wonder if they have all-round shallow lagoons or if there is very steep falloff on one side.

actually I am amazed after looking at films how has maldives survived in middle of what is path of SW monsoon into India?
the highest point is 8 feet above sea level and most of the resort islands seem like barely 5 feet @ tallest point. lagoons with small islands in a ring.
dont cyclonic storms ever occur in that region?

when sea levels were lower in last ice age, those islands would have been much larger. I have read sea was upto 100m lower in parts.... all of indonesia was well connected to the asian landmass

jpremnath wrote: Even if it was, is it going to be such a big deal? We have thrown away atleast 6 billion Dollars in Air India alone in the last few years...And we keep throwing more at unproductive government expenses every year....If the babus signed off on giving away 1.4b, then I am sure the powers that be has assured them that it wont be vain...

If your concern is that even after spending so much money, the Maldivians will turn on the coin, then I would like to believe that the GoI and the babus has learned their lesson from having a handsoff approach before.. We used to give our chotta neighbours pennies in aid..and when the Chinis came with big pocket, they naturally went to them..and who can blame them?

If they decide to go to the highest bidder, the story clearly does not end there. Problems continue, and likely exacerbate. One could easily argue that it's probably not a matter of 'if' but 'when'. So India's gotta be thinking today about options, were this to happen. This what I was trying to allude to previously.

SriKumar wrote: If they decide to go to the highest bidder, the story clearly does not end there. Problems continue, and likely exacerbate. One could easily argue that it's probably not a matter of 'if' but 'when'. So India's gotta be thinking today about options, were this to happen. This what I was trying to allude to previously.[/b]

You can say that about any international relationships..Its all about playing your cards wisely...And in the case of how India went; we were not playing any cards!! If you look from the point of minnows, they know they wont get any help from India, so they went to the Chinese..If they knew that we could aid both their country and their own 'establishment' this wouldnt have happened..It is our agencies' job to cultivate assets and allies. Thats what every big power does.