Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[muraliravi]

Well then, so if cong and lalu ally bjp may well dip to 13 in bihar and based on my calc it is 157 + 13 = 170. Thats 40 seats lesser than the 210 being shown. So Muppalla ji, maybe 170 is the real number

As per ABP, breakup is like this

RJD - 20
INC - 10
LJP - 8
NCP - 2

Wow, lalu is really desperate; I mean why on earth is he allowing congress to fight 10 seats, even 8 for paswan way too high.

[Altair]

Is it possible for Dienasty to change the boundaries of lok sabha constituencies so that the demographics change at last minute and hurt NaMo?

[Shanmukh]

Is it possible for Dienasty to change the boundaries of lok sabha constituencies so that the demographics change at last minute and hurt NaMo?

No - only EC can do that, and it is a long process. Not enough time to pull it off before 2014 Lok Sabha. Also, it was done in 2008, so no excuse to do it just 6 years later (the one prior to 2008 was done in 1981, I think).

[Shanmukh]

Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 32s

Alliances being formed in TN are so ideology-- neutral or contradictory that Jayalalitha will win all 39 seats plus Puducherry.

Subbu Swamy's disdain for MDMK and PMK is well known. Let us hope he does not sabotage the BJP in TN.

[member_20317]

As per ABP, breakup is like this

RJD - 20
INC - 10
LJP - 8
NCP - 2

Wow, lalu is really desperate; I mean why on earth is he allowing congress to fight 10 seats, even 8 for paswan way too high.

It could also mean that Lalu too is expecting a serious fracturing in his voter base. The point however remains whether they will be able to transfer votes effectively. If they do, then that is not good.

[Altair]

Is it possible for Dienasty to change the boundaries of lok sabha constituencies so that the demographics change at last minute and hurt NaMo?

No - only EC can do that, and it is a long process. Not enough time to pull it off before 2014 Lok Sabha. Also, it was done in 2008, so no excuse to do it just 6 years later (the one prior to 2008 was done in 1981, I think).

So, the current test environment for all the the pollsters is close enough for accurately predicting final deployment.Hmm..The dirty tricks department can still change the environment to upset everybody here through some other means. We must try to predict what tricks they can pull off in the last minute for any course corrections to not work for NaMo. This is how we can be a value add and be ahead of the curve in true BRF tradition.

[Supratik]

I see a recovery for BJP in KA post Yeddi return from the nos which is good. In BH if the alliance forms I don't see JDU getting any Muslim vote. He will be the net looser. Also they may loose some of Hindu votes from INC who may not go with Laloo and if NM can draw some of the Yadav votes. But net I don't expect more than 14-16 seats.

[Muppalla]

Well then, so if cong and lalu ally bjp may well dip to 13 in bihar and based on my calc it is 157 + 13 = 170. Thats 40 seats lesser than the 210 being shown. So Muppalla ji, maybe 170 is the real number

Even 170 is not a bad number because it is a data point before any alliance declaration or any strategy declaration or announcement of candidates. It will only go up.

[SwamyG]

I think the BJP will be foolish if they did not already consider Muslim counter-mobilization against Modi.

They did consider, so one wants to believe. Probably that is why we have Amit Shah in UP. Mobilization can happen the other way too, as long Congress does not break that consolidation of pro-Modi and pro-hindutva votes.

[SwamyG]

^^ sadly..yes

one more round of ...aaack thooo !!!

I am missing something here, why the thoo?

[Muppalla]

As per ABP, breakup is like this

RJD - 20
INC - 10
LJP - 8
NCP - 2

Wow, lalu is really desperate; I mean why on earth is he allowing congress to fight 10 seats, even 8 for paswan way too high.

It could also mean that Lalu too is expecting a serious fracturing in his voter base. The point however remains whether they will be able to transfer votes effectively. If they do, then that is not good.

The votes will transfer in Bihar. The voter is a loyal based on caste affiliation. ravi ji, think about four months ago we all discussed one thing. 2014 will be decided in Bihar. Here is the sequence that is possible.

(1) Nitish is only helping INC by breaking up with BJP. He may be down to 4% vote share but that will be detrimental in BJP losing about 8 to 10 seats
(2) INC is always expected that it will not align with Nitish and it will align with Laloo only
(3) It is expected to have Yadav+Muslims+Dalits towards UPA

Now if you connect the rigged surveys of 40 extra to Modi makes sense. The bs of 4 seats to BJP in Orissa etc are all to create fears in Muslims of Modi and polarize into Yadav+Muslim in Bihar.

2014 will be decided in Bihar. Yadavs could still vote to BJP. All I am saying is this is the state to watched with high curiosity.

[bhargava]

^^ sadly..yes

one more round of ...aaack thooo !!!

I am missing something here, why the thoo?

Being "educated", "progressive" and "industry-face" and all that..isn't he supposed to be beyond this gree-robe-tilak-topi ch***giri which passes of as secluarism ?

[muraliravi]

The votes will transfer in Bihar. The voter is a loyal based on caste affiliation. ravi ji, think about four months ago we all discussed one thing. 2014 will be decided in Bihar. Here is the sequence that is possible.

(1) Nitish is only helping INC by breaking up with BJP. He may be down to 4% vote share but that will be detrimental in BJP losing about 8 to 10 seats
(2) INC is always expected that it will not align with Nitish and it will align with Laloo only
(3) It is expected to have Yadav+Muslims+Dalits towards UPA

Now if you connect the rigged surveys of 40 extra to Modi makes sense. The bs of 4 seats to BJP in Orissa etc are all to create fears in Muslims of Modi and polarize into Yadav+Muslim in Bihar.

2014 will be decided in Bihar. Yadavs could still vote to BJP. All I am saying is this is the state to watched with high curiosity.

Bihar Vote Shares:

CSDS:
BJP-39%, JDU-20%, RJD-15%, Cong-11%, LJP-2%
Nielson:
BJP-35%, JDU-11%, RJD-17%, Cong-8%, LJP-6%

[gandharva]

[JohnTitor]

I am missing something here, why the thoo?

Being "educated", "progressive" and "industry-face" and all that..isn't he supposed to be beyond this gree-robe-tilak-topi ch***giri which passes of as secluarism ?

You have to understand that the being ("educated", "progressive" and "industry-face" and all that) part applies to the voter and NOT the candidate. The candidate has to camouflage himself in the same colours as the voter. He is just being "secular". If the voter is secular, then he has to be secular, if the voter is communal, then he has to be communal

[disha]

waaack thooo

Nandan Nilekani's image with 'minority' girls

It was puke inducing at several levels...! Not able to figure out why!!

[Muppalla]

Bihar Vote Shares:

CSDS:
BJP-39%, JDU-20%, RJD-15%, Cong-11%, LJP-2%
Nielson:
BJP-35%, JDU-11%, RJD-17%, Cong-8%, LJP-6%

What that means is BJP has to work hard to salami slice Kurmi and Yadav votes from JDU and RJD respectively to get beyond 20 seats. There is potential in terms of voter mobilization. This is the real factor where they worked decently by planting 10 crude bombs in the rally. They will try to reduce mobilization.

[disha]

Bihar Vote Shares:

CSDS:
BJP-39%, JDU-20%, RJD-15%, Cong-11%, LJP-2%
Nielson:
BJP-35%, JDU-11%, RJD-17%, Cong-8%, LJP-6%

So Bihar, is it going to be BJP vs. all others? Expect lot of internal sabotage between RJD and Cong! Laloo is not somebody who will txfer his vote share and enjoy retirement in jail. On the other hand, Niku has truly lost his marbles. Will JDU MPs still rally behind NiKu in national elections while he is allying with CongI who are in turn allying with RJD?

Further this is a wave elections - one is anti-Congi wave and another is pro-Namo wave (Kejriwal/AAP is limited only to Delhi & maybe B'glore, Kerala) - will caste consolidations still hold in such situations? We saw what happened in Raj which was a local elections. And this is being borne out by pollsters not able to "mathematically equate NaMo equations"

NiKu is a survivor., given what he sees (and also rest of what his party sees) I will not be surprised if NiKu crawls back into a hole and does a covert tie-up with certain elements of BJP.

Bottomline - JDU's votebase can be converted to BJP's!

Currently the polls are just a trend - pointing to a potential. For example- 4 seats in Orissa - why not? However candidate selection, actual campaign etc still matters. So yes, the general trend is NaMo4PM., now their task is clearly cut out., make the general trends towards actual seats! Something that did not happen in 2004 because everybody assumed that BJP will win and there was no clear cut direction - everybody knew ABV had to retire and the cadre was not energized also TDP lost big time in AP, DMK won big time in TN and Leftists gained control in WB/Kerala.

In 2009, economy was great., MMS was "Singh is King" and LKA was lack lustre.

Things are different now!

[disha]

.....

...
The Meerut rally ground, barely 40 kms away from the Muzaffarnagar riot site, promises to provide a vibrant platform for Modi to deliver a strong message to the majority community.
...

Amit Shah, Modi's controversial aid has travelled about 3,000 kms across the State to infuse fresh enthusiasm in the party workers.

The efforts seem to be paying off. For the first time, even Congress leaders are grudgingly acknowledging Modi's pervasive influence on the electorate, albeit in a sardonic way.

"Modi is like paan masala," said a senior Congress leader from Rae Bareli who did not want to be named. "There is hardly any youth in UP's villages who do not have a packet of paan masala in his pocket," said the Congress leader. "The same is the case with Modi, he is there in the minds of every villager."

That is called efforts on the ground - and NaMo has become a backdrop.

[JohnTitor]

.....

...
The Meerut rally ground, barely 40 kms away from the Muzaffarnagar riot site, promises to provide a vibrant platform for Modi to deliver a strong message to the majority community.
...

Amit Shah, Modi's controversial aid has travelled about 3,000 kms across the State to infuse fresh enthusiasm in the party workers.

I love how everyone in NM's team is "controversial"

[muraliravi]

...
The Meerut rally ground, barely 40 kms away from the Muzaffarnagar riot site, promises to provide a vibrant platform for Modi to deliver a strong message to the majority community.
...

Amit Shah, Modi's controversial aid has travelled about 3,000 kms across the State to infuse fresh enthusiasm in the party workers.

The efforts seem to be paying off. For the first time, even Congress leaders are grudgingly acknowledging Modi's pervasive influence on the electorate, albeit in a sardonic way.

"Modi is like paan masala," said a senior Congress leader from Rae Bareli who did not want to be named. "There is hardly any youth in UP's villages who do not have a packet of paan masala in his pocket," said the Congress leader. "The same is the case with Modi, he is there in the minds of every villager."

That is called efforts on the ground - and NaMo has become a backdrop.

Whoever wrote that article with reference to Muzzafarnagar is a duffer. Meerut probably must have witnessed the maximum number of riots in India and is by far a very polarized city. They dont a muzzafarnagar episode to be motivated to vote for modi.

[Muppalla]

Whoever wrote that article with reference to Muzzafarnagar is a duffer. Meerut probably must have witnessed the maximum number of riots in India and is by far a very polarized city. They dont a muzzafarnagar episode to be motivated to vote for modi.

During RG PMship, it won't be an exaggeration if we say riots happened atleast once a month in that region.

[muraliravi]

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/cong ... 39935.html

Two senior Congress leaders who are privy to the deliberations with the RJD told the India Today Group that in the party's estimate the alliance with Lalu has the potential to be game changer in the Lok Sabha elections. In 2009, when the Congress and the RJD fought separately, both parties were trounced at the hustings by the BJP and JD(U) combine. The Mood Of The Nation projections done by C-Voter show the RJD bagging 11 seats when the Lok Sabha elections are held. The Congress is projected to win two seats while the LJP is expected to win a solitary seat. The BJP is projected to be the major gainer bagging 22 out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar.

However, the scenario changes completely if the vote banks of the Congress, RJD and the LJP are aggregated. According to the Mood Of The Nation Poll, the three parties have a cumulative projected vote share of 29 per cent while the BJP's vote share is only 30 per cent. The narrow gap between the two vote-shares of the two opponents means that BJP will be in for a far tougher fight against a UPA alliance than if these parties were to contest separately.

[muraliravi]

Whoever wrote that article with reference to Muzzafarnagar is a duffer. Meerut probably must have witnessed the maximum number of riots in India and is by far a very polarized city. They dont a muzzafarnagar episode to be motivated to vote for modi.

During RG PMship, it won't be an exaggeration if we say riots happened atleast once a month in that region.

Yup, Muzzafarnagar is a joke compared to what used to happen in those areas

[muraliravi]

Ok, so I was finally able to get the vote shares for Bihar from all surveys. Quite interesting. If we look at the drubbing that NDA got in 2004, it was primarily because RJD+LJP+Cong were able to get a whopping 43.4% vote while NDA was just at 36.9% vote. So that is a 6.5% vote differential that led to a 28:11 result.



Now it is a little more interesting, lets first look at the poll of polls that I have (basically an average), it is a 6% advantage for BJP over an united UPA. So basically they should have a home run despite congress-lalu alliance. But some x-factors here. CSDS survey discussion, dr shastri made an interesting point that most cong voters in bihar were fine with lalu. So we will assume votes are transferrable.

1. The poll of polls is average, but if you look at the most conservative poll, that is the cvoter it maybe really close.
2. Nitish seems to have a wide vote share range in these polls. The vote share he has is very important. If he does have any muslim votes in these surveys, they will for sure go to UPA. Now Nielson is probably bang on, he is the biggest loser, I dont think he will have a 16% vote share in the LS elections. So from the poll of polls, if we bring Nitish from 16 to 11, lets assume a even move away. Some muslims and maha dalits 2.5% may move to UPA and some BC's may move to BJP.
3. Of the 20% yadavs (3%) who have moved to BJP, at least 1/2 may move back to RJD seeing that he has a chance. So expect about 2% erosion in BJP's bank.

So from the poll of polls, BJP will be 35+2.5-2=35.5
UPA will be 29+2.5+2=33.5

So pretty damn close I would say. But in any event, BJP wont get drubbed. They can salvage 15 seats even if UPA gains more votes.

So finally it maybe 37-38% for BJP and 32 for Lalu. Any further ground that Nitish loses will be to BJP's advantage.

[SwamyG]

^ Secularism sarvo prathma.

Secularism is the first and last refuge of a Congressperson.

[Suraj]

Posting here instead of NaMo thread since it's more appropriate here:

There's a problem with raising a demographic bogey about Kerala regarding Hindus being outnumbered by Christians and Muslims. This imposes a construct more suited to North India than in Kerala.

The reason is that Kerala has always interacted with the outside world, for a long time. Christianity has been around in Kerala longer than in Europe. The original Muslim base in Kerala were traders who convered or intermarried, not those who did so while facing the pointy end of a sword. Similarly, the old Christians were originally a small endogamous community like the Jews and later Parsis, not like those of Goa who did so in the face of horrifying consequences otherwise.

I would classify members of both these communities - who primarily take pride in their original history - as Indic, and not on the basis of religion. This is because they are Indians first, just as Parsis and Jews who came to India are. They are non-proselytizing, generally peaceful and enterprising folk who have been a valuable part of state history.

To classify them among the general bloc of Christians and Muslims and put them against the Hindu bloc is to misunderstand the history and ethos of the state. Malayali Hindus are not 'deracinated' or scoring self goals. The phenomenon of these two religions having a more aggressive and dominant fringe is recent.

The mistake people make is to categorize all Christians or Muslims into one bloc , while treating the Hindu group as several fractured communities. The fact is, both the Christians and Muslims have a base among them who have an Indic heritage and ought to be co-opted into a political firmament that supports them against their own radical fringe.

To ignore that these two communities have both good and dangerous communities within, and make a villain of people who would otherwise make perfectly acceptable pan-Indic groups, is what really is a self goal, from a Kerala perspective. Seen in a proper context, Kerala has, and continues to have a 75-80% Indic base, but which remains fractured because the Hindu base is split while the Indic Christians and Muslims have been summarily handed over to the other side.

[muraliravi]

Posting here instead of NaMo thread since it's more appropriate here:

There's a problem with raising a demographic bogey about Kerala regarding Hindus being outnumbered by Christians and Muslims. This imposes a construct more suited to North India than in Kerala.

The reason is that Kerala has always interacted with the outside world, for a long time. Christianity has been around in Kerala longer than in Europe. The original Muslim base in Kerala were traders who convered or intermarried, not those who did so while facing the pointy end of a sword. Similarly, the old Christians were originally a small endogamous community like the Jews and later Parsis, not like those of Goa who did so in the face of horrifying consequences otherwise.

I would classify members of both these communities - who primarily take pride in their original history - as Indic, and not on the basis of religion. This is because they are Indians first, just as Parsis and Jews who came to India are. They are non-proselytizing, generally peaceful and enterprising folk who have been a valuable part of state history.

To classify them among the general bloc of Christians and Muslims and put them against the Hindu bloc is to misunderstand the history and ethos of the state. Malayali Hindus are not 'deracinated' or scoring self goals. The phenomenon of these two religions having a more aggressive and dominant fringe is recent.

The mistake people make is to categorize all Christians or Muslims into one bloc , while treating the Hindu group as several fractured communities. The fact is, both the Christians and Muslims have a base among them who have an Indic heritage and ought to be co-opted into a political firmament that supports them against their own radical fringe.

To ignore that these two communities have both good and dangerous communities within, and make a villain of people who would otherwise make perfectly acceptable pan-Indic groups, is what really is a self goal, from a Kerala perspective. Seen in a proper context, Kerala has, and continues to have a 75-80% Indic base, but which remains fractured because the Hindu base is split while the Indic Christians and Muslims have been summarily handed over to the other side.

please post it in OT thread.

[Karan M]

Suraj, based on your experience how would you classify the Kerala IM community? Have seen a lot of fundamentalist streak in them in recent days, a sea change from my college days when the Kerala IMs i knew were drinking, carousing free wheeling souls. Malappuram especially gets a pretty nasty tag and the love jihad stuff (also extended to parts of Kar) does not help.

[Shanmukh]

Posting here instead of NaMo thread since it's more appropriate here:

There's a problem with raising a demographic bogey about Kerala regarding Hindus being outnumbered by Christians and Muslims. This imposes a construct more suited to North India than in Kerala.

The reason is that Kerala has always interacted with the outside world, for a long time. Christianity has been around in Kerala longer than in Europe. The original Muslim base in Kerala were traders who convered or intermarried, not those who did so while facing the pointy end of a sword. Similarly, the old Christians were originally a small endogamous community like the Jews and later Parsis, not like those of Goa who did so in the face of horrifying consequences otherwise.

I would classify members of both these communities - who primarily take pride in their original history - as Indic, and not on the basis of religion. This is because they are Indians first, just as Parsis and Jews who came to India are. They are non-proselytizing, generally peaceful and enterprising folk who have been a valuable part of state history.

To classify them among the general bloc of Christians and Muslims and put them against the Hindu bloc is to misunderstand the history and ethos of the state. Malayali Hindus are not 'deracinated' or scoring self goals. The phenomenon of these two religions having a more aggressive and dominant fringe is recent.

The mistake people make is to categorize all Christians or Muslims into one bloc , while treating the Hindu group as several fractured communities. The fact is, both the Christians and Muslims have a base among them who have an Indic heritage and ought to be co-opted into a political firmament that supports them against their own radical fringe.

To ignore that these two communities have both good and dangerous communities within, and make a villain of people who would otherwise make perfectly acceptable pan-Indic groups, is what really is a self goal, from a Kerala perspective. Seen in a proper context, Kerala has, and continues to have a 75-80% Indic base, but which remains fractured because the Hindu base is split while the Indic Christians and Muslims have been summarily handed over to the other side.

This is a superb post. Yes, in one sense, there is a 75% Indic base in Kerala. But there is also a strong Gulf influence that is turning even otherwise less Islamised groups into more Islamised bunch - this is a recent development. However, even in the past, Islamic triumphalism has sometimes raised its head - the Moplah revolts of the 1920s are the best example of that. However, radicalisation on a larger scale, has begun and is proceeding very fast. Maudhany is probably the best example of that.

In one sense, Kerala's Muslims are more akin to Indonesia's but they are swiftly changing. Also, Kerala has long had a cultural nationalism of its own, that easily trumped any Hindu nationalism. But with increasing radicalisation of Islam, I suspect that the counter moves are also beginning. What we are seeing in Kerala - the approbation of the BJP by both Nair and Ezhava caste based organisations, and the Orthodox priests, is a tentative move towards the cultural Indic nationalism. The BJP must move swiftly to capitalise on this.

The second thing is that the old non-Catholic Christians also suffered heavily at the hands of the Portuguese (just ask Syrian Christians about their Portuguese experiences, preferably with a cup of beverage, and they will regale you with horror stories galore). The Syrian Christians were seen as a variant of a very Indic faith, that basically minded its own business. Even the Christianisation that occurred in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, particularly in Travancore and Cochin, were not products of mass evangelisation that is being attempted today. The current crop of Protestant Christians are trying to destroy even the old Indicised Christians, and the Orthodox, Mar Thoma and Jacobite groups are worried. So, their priests are approving NaMo and sending out feelers. Will the BJP work to take advantage of this turn of events? What the BJP urgently needs is a face that commands respect. NaMo may do for the Lok Sabha, but the BJP needs a credible local face. Whether it can it produce one remains to be seen.

[KLP Dubey]

Suraj, based on your experience how would you classify the Kerala IM community? Have seen a lot of fundamentalist streak in them in recent days, a sea change from my college days when the Kerala IMs i knew were drinking, carousing free wheeling souls. Malappuram especially gets a pretty nasty tag and the love jihad stuff (also extended to parts of Kar) does not help.

Couple of years ago I drove through Kasaragod district from Mangalore to Fort Bekal and back. It was a Friday. Everything was shut down. Might as well have been a Sunday.

[RajeshA]

Read somewhere that JD-U may put up as many as 30 Muslims as Lok Sabha candidates to counter RJD+Congress+LJP combo.

[Suraj]

This is a superb post. Yes, in one sense, there is a 75% Indic base in Kerala. But there is also a strong Gulf influence that is turning even otherwise less Islamised groups into more Islamised bunch - this is a recent development. However, even in the past, Islamic triumphalism has sometimes raised its head - the Moplah revolts of the 1920s are the best example of that. However, radicalisation on a larger scale, has begun and is proceeding very fast. Maudhany is probably the best example of that.

Thanks. The fringe is loud now because they have the political space to do so, while their older more Indic brethren do not. The same applies to the Christians. To categorize the Indic component of these groups as Muslims or Christians and just summarily lump them with the rest is a stupid mistake, and the most telling form of a self goal in this matter. By handing them over to their fringe you will just radicalize them further.

This is not a cynical political divide and rule game. These decent people have no business being categorized with their much more assertive and poisonous fringe. Modi is doing the right thing by talking to the Marthoma and older Christian folk, who are quite decent and productive people who have no history of calling anything but India their homes. He should extend such talk to include the older trading community Muslim folk who are well off and established, but not radical. Further, he needs to first guarantee them a political firewall against their fringe.

Defining Indic on the basis of abrahamic vs non-abrahamic may work to a greater extent in the NW border and Gangetic states, but not in Kerala. Without a sufficiently nuanced view, one runs the risk of handing over entire demographic blocs who would otherwise be within the Indic group, to the other side. This is particularly an issue because these groups are quite sizeable in Kerala, and together, the Indic bloc including them is easily more than 2/3rds majority essentially across the state, at least from a LS election perspective, if not state assembly too.

Suraj, based on your experience how would you classify the Kerala IM community? Have seen a lot of fundamentalist streak in them in recent days, a sea change from my college days when the Kerala IMs i knew were drinking, carousing free wheeling souls.

That's the same experience I had. My sports coach during the late 80s in school was a shorts-wearing athletic lady whose husband was my dad's colleague. He was a happy social type who lived about 5 doors away from us. Completely unremarkable folks. Ditto for the Christian folks nearby.

It's a mistake to club these people into the other side. They have come to our homes during Onam and Vishu, and we have wished them during Eid and Christmas. Their fringe and the more established sides should never be treated as one entity.

Even Malappuram isn't all doom and gloom. Remember Irfan Thodi Kolothum ? The 20 year old kid who finished a shockingly high 10th (and set a national record) and may even have come close to medaling with more experience, in the race walk event in the 2012 London Olympics ? He's from Malappuram. There are plenty of good folks everywhere. They need to be recognized and given a political voice separate from their fringes.

[Muppalla]

Read somewhere that JD-U may put up as many as 30 Muslims as Lok Sabha candidates to counter RJD+Congress+LJP combo.

No significant use.

[Hari Seldon]

Read somewhere that JD-U may put up as many as 30 Muslims as Lok Sabha candidates to counter RJD+Congress+LJP combo.

Wonderful. At best, he weakens UPA by fragmenting their M bloc. Plus helps in the migration of the yindoo (sub) caste blocs to the lotus...

At worst, he gets no traction and falls flat. Either way he doesn't eat into lotus votes.

[Avarachan]

Posting here instead of NaMo thread since it's more appropriate here:

There's a problem with raising a demographic bogey about Kerala regarding Hindus being outnumbered by Christians and Muslims. This imposes a construct more suited to North India than in Kerala.

The reason is that Kerala has always interacted with the outside world, for a long time. Christianity has been around in Kerala longer than in Europe. The original Muslim base in Kerala were traders who convered or intermarried, not those who did so while facing the pointy end of a sword. Similarly, the old Christians were originally a small endogamous community like the Jews and later Parsis, not like those of Goa who did so in the face of horrifying consequences otherwise.

I would classify members of both these communities - who primarily take pride in their original history - as Indic, and not on the basis of religion. This is because they are Indians first, just as Parsis and Jews who came to India are. They are non-proselytizing, generally peaceful and enterprising folk who have been a valuable part of state history.

To classify them among the general bloc of Christians and Muslims and put them against the Hindu bloc is to misunderstand the history and ethos of the state. Malayali Hindus are not 'deracinated' or scoring self goals. The phenomenon of these two religions having a more aggressive and dominant fringe is recent.

The mistake people make is to categorize all Christians or Muslims into one bloc , while treating the Hindu group as several fractured communities. The fact is, both the Christians and Muslims have a base among them who have an Indic heritage and ought to be co-opted into a political firmament that supports them against their own radical fringe.

To ignore that these two communities have both good and dangerous communities within, and make a villain of people who would otherwise make perfectly acceptable pan-Indic groups, is what really is a self goal, from a Kerala perspective. Seen in a proper context, Kerala has, and continues to have a 75-80% Indic base, but which remains fractured because the Hindu base is split while the Indic Christians and Muslims have been summarily handed over to the other side.

Suraj, this is a great post. I am an Indian Orthodox Christian, and I thank you for this. (I don't agree with absolutely everything you wrote, but your major points regarding Kerala's Christians are largely correct.)

1) It is true that the older Indic Christian communities are uncomfortable with the new "evangelicals." Their theology is regarded as superficial, and their loud and aggressive manner is disliked.

2) Orthodox and Jacobite Christians, in particular, are concerned about the rise of jihadism. Orthodox and Jacobites view themselves as Indian, but they've also been monitoring the events in Syria that have affected their fellow (Oriental) Orthodox Christians there. They're worried that what's happened to Syria could also happen to Kerala/India. They're also aware of the U.S. sponsorship of the jihadists.

3) It is true that Orthodox priests and bishops have been sending out feelers to Narendra Modi. If NaMo assures them that they'll be left alone and won't be persecuted for their religious beliefs, he could get a significant share of their votes.

4) In Kerala, NaMo should talk about building a knowledge-based economy. Many educated Keralites are frustrated that they have to leave Kerala/India to find work. Obviously, this migration places great strain on families. He should also talk about how Kerala's unique environment (medicinal herbs, etc.) could be leveraged for economic growth.

[Avarachan]

Suraj, based on your experience how would you classify the Kerala IM community? Have seen a lot of fundamentalist streak in them in recent days, a sea change from my college days when the Kerala IMs i knew were drinking, carousing free wheeling souls. Malappuram especially gets a pretty nasty tag and the love jihad stuff (also extended to parts of Kar) does not help.

Karan M, can you email me? Your m35 address no longer works. My address is my username dot the numbers nine seven at the Google service. Thanks. I need to contact you regarding a writing project.

[Suraj]

Avarachan: Thank you for your post I've no issue with your disagreeing with parts of my post - feel free to elaborate on your own where I'm not right, or you'd just like to state differently! Just to get someone like you to step up and speak out makes the post worthwhile.

My original post came about because I was irritated with people constantly mischaracterizing Kerala's ethos and treating the situation on the basis of religious breakdown from a 35000ft view, looking solely at Hindu population vs Christian/Muslim population and going 'Hindu khatre mein hain!, 'deracinated' etc' As a Kerala Hindu with tons of Christian and Muslim friends growing up in Cochin, it was worth speaking up.

Fact is Kerala has had a sizeable Christian and Muslim population forever. We were the center of the world spice trade and interacted with the Middle East and Europe for 2000 years. The old Christians came to Kerala to escape persecution and made a home within, just like the Jews. The Muslim traders converted as the Arab peninsula Islamized, for their own commercial benefit. In that sense, as nageshks said, their Islam is like that of Indonesia, not TSP.

While intermarriage isn't very common, it happens. One of my 2nd cousins married an Orthodox Christian. No conversion business - they remain their respective faiths and celebrate both. Kids can choose whichever they want when they grow up, or celebrate both if they so wish.

The situation in Kerala is not like in Mizoram or Nagaland. There, the primary strain of Christianity is the aggressive proselytizing one. In Kerala, the older Indic Christians would very much like some kind of understanding and political support to be left alone against the aggressive efforts of the the new Protestants, and as such would respond very favorably to Modi if he provided both the political cover and a business friendly approach.

Both these communities are established business-minded people who have no patience for the hartal culture and would happily accept a BJP administration that's efficient, supports them in the form of protecting them from the lunatic fringe, and lets them do business. Give them that space and they're as good as any other well known business-minded community out there; they have the capital and the networks to make things happen.

[muraliravi]

Maybe people interested in discussing electoral trends need a new thread.

And by the way for all the kerala lovers: here are some facts

1901: Hindu pop % 69%
2001: Hindu 56%,

So i guess we should not worry about the 13% dip and live in cuckoo land being painted. For the interfaith glories, i can also give stories of how my close friend's sister (a hindu malayali) got married to a x-tian malayali and has made her life hell. Her daughter cannot even learn bharatanatyam as her mom in law feels its a hindu dance and forget going to temple, so much for keep their own faith.

To add more spice, if you recall during the BJP regime in rajasthan from 2003-08, there was a pastor burning issue regarding him distributing anti-hindu pamplets. See her (raje's) interview to kutta thapar, she clearly says that the pamplets and ideological fathers of these movements come from kerala. And these kerala trained nuns are responsible for a lot of soul harvesting in our North East. Enuf of all these sugar coated stories, once upon time, it was a glorious hindu kingdom. People are trying to make x-tianity in kerala almost an integral part of ancient kerala which it was certainly not.

Even worse, the kerala movie directors (hindu/x-tian) i guess are running out of funding in kerala (of course a state that runs only on nri money, becos there is no industry whatsoever to speak of) are now coming into TN to make movies. Guess what you wll notice it in every TN movie where these guys have a hand, weddings in churches, characters will x-tian names. Please stay away from my state, will you

As far as BJP in concerned, I am sure in 1801, when Hindu pop would have most likely been around 80% in kerala, if elections were held, they would have had a chance, not any more.

Anyway can we please discuss elections here, mallu fantasies can be painted in other threads

[Shanmukh]

Folks,
Here is a constituency by constituency analysis of the Assam Lok Sabha constituencies, by a blogger based in Assam.

http://arindambaruah.wordpress.com/2013 ... ing-point/

It is one person's opinion. I agree with most of it, but in some respects, I disagree with him. In particular, the person avers that Tezpur is impossible for the BJP. I don't agree with that. If Moni Kumar Subba could be beaten in Tezpur, so can Ripun Bora.

http://arindambaruah.wordpress.com/2014 ... dibrugarh/

The Dibrugarh analysis is very good, but the name may not be accurate. Sarbananda Sonowal, last I heard, was planning to contest from Lakhimpur, not Dibrugarh. But if Sarbananda Sonowal does not contest from Dibrugarh, it will be another intense fight, this time between Kamakhya Prasad Tasa and Paban Singh Ghatowar (and Kamakhya Prasad Tasa is another BJP stalwart). Just swap the name of Sonowal for Tasa.

And here is an analysis of Mangaldoi. Since we don't know who is going to contest from Mangaldoi, take that `Congress stalwart' with a pinch of salt.

http://arindambaruah.wordpress.com/2014 ... mangaldoi/