India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[Jay]

I'm not sure what India would get by publicly saying that US's treatment of this matter is "unjustified and unreasonable". Trump sees this as evidence that he's hurting India and will not cede his place. Trump only responds to threats to his power and the more he sees the other side as "begging" the more he will apply pressure.

[Rudradev]

It's a well thought-out diplomatic statement for a very wide variety of audiences, including other governments across the world and other actors in the US establishment (who might actually know a thing or two about diplomacy).

By the standards of diplomatese, an official public statement saying that the position of a foreign government is "unjustified and unreasonable" is as strongly condemnatory as you are ever likely to see in peacetime. It indicates that India sees any compromise with the US' stated position as unachievable, and therefore, India refuses to give an inch under the present circumstances.

The one person who is NOT part of the intended audience is Trump. India clearly regards any pronouncements from him as beneath contempt, so he is free to interpret and react to the statement in any way he likes-- it won't change India's position.

[Jay]

It's a well thought-out diplomatic statement for a very wide variety of audiences, including other governments across the world and other actors in the US establishment (who might actually know a thing or two about diplomacy).

We seem to still play by the old rules even when the old rules here left the station. Who are we trying to impress with this "pleading" tone? Even the highly stuffed euro tard politicians have shed their diplomatic tone as this is highly ineffective with the power we are negotiating with. Show this idiot the money and/or the power/influence we can bring to the table to be effective. This groveling will lead to more groveling in the future.

[Tanaji]

What power/influence can India bring to the table in this fight? Its a genuine question, not a rhetorical one.

I dont think we have any cards. The slightest action against NRIs and H1Bs will cause them to vocally protest against GoI and this will be amplified by our own politicians to bring the current government down.

[Rudradev]

What power/influence can India bring to the table in this fight? Its a genuine question, not a rhetorical one.

Harsh Madhusudan has some practical ideas.



Most of them are not about what to bring to the table in this particular event-- options for an immediate response are always limited when an economy 7X your size starts a fight with you out of the blue. Rather, they are about what India can do to strengthen its position after slamming the door on any kind of deal with America in the present circumstances.

The slightest action against NRIs and H1Bs will cause them to vocally protest against GoI and this will be amplified by our own politicians to bring the current government down.

Action by whom?

[bala]

Unfortunately most language models have a subtle anti India bias . Cannot emphasize enough the need for having indigenous models .

The issue is RAG - retrieval augmented generation. These are glorified look up tables which have the content. The content is written by somebody with a US viewpoint. The LLMs just regurgitate whatever is in the lookup.

An Indian LLM will also use such RAGs unless someone takes the time to correct the information. The problem is India does not have sufficient material written from the Indian perspective including things like Sanskrit/Vedas, etc. Unless this topic is addressed the world will continue to see such bias.

[uddu]

Trump Accuses India, While US Trade with Russia Surges | Vantage with Palki Sharma

India Accuses Trump of Hypocrisy as US Threatens More Tariffs | Vantage with Palki Sharma
Donald Trump is accusing India of funding Russia’s war — but U.S. imports from Russia are up 23%. Uranium, palladium, and fertilisers — critical resources — are still flowing into America. Even the EU continues to trade with Moscow while criticising Indian oil purchases.
This report reveals the West’s double standards and highlights how India’s energy policy is not just sovereign — but stabilising global markets.

India has hit back at Donald Trump's criticism over New Delhi's oil purchases from Russia, calling it "unjustified and unreasonable". But the US president threatened more tariffs on India despite the Indian response. Will India stick to Russian oil? How is India standing up to Trump? Palki Sharma tells you.
Why is Donald Trump Targeting India? Four Possible Reasons | Vantage with Palki Sharma

Donald Trump enjoyed warm ties with India in his first term as president. He began his second term by declaring that India-US ties were closer than ever. How did this relationship break down in six months? Why has Trump turned against India?Palki Sharma tells you.

[uddu]

Comply or Be Punished: How US Bullied India in the Past

India and the U.S. – it's a partnership filled with promise, but shadowed by power plays. From Cold War tensions and the 1971 Bangladesh war, to sanctions over nuclear tests and today’s tariff wars – Washington has often punished New Delhi for choosing independence. Even as ties warmed in the 2000s with defence deals and civil nuclear agreements, old habits persist. Why does the U.S. still act like a bully? Palki Sharma tells you.

[KL Dubey]

^^Fundamentally, the West wants beneficial transactions packaged as "partnership" but at the same time try to chip away at the foundations of Bharat. The latter activity may be motivated both by "ideology" and also to ensure transactions that are more favorable to the west.

The menu presented may change from one US admin to the other, but the ingredients are the same stale/rotten/poisonous ones.

There is no option for Bharat other than to become highly self-reliant on key aspects:

- Energy: abandon imported fossil fuels, become a renewable solar* + nukular energy country

*other than nukular and geothermal, all energy sources are solar including PV, solar-thermal, wind, hydro, biomass etc and non-renewables like fossil fuels, they are all just different carriers of solar energy

- Natural resources like minerals: especially recycling technology

- Advanced materials and machinery (semiconductors, chips, metallurgy, fab equipment, aircraft engines, etc)

- Pharmaceuticals including the APIs and biotech

The more Bharat becomes a leader in these areas, the less leverage the west will have.

We are making progress in all the above. Also, with green hydrogen coming online and better water management, we can quickly become 100% self-reliant in food production.

[Jay]

What power/influence can India bring to the table in this fight? Its a genuine question, not a rhetorical one.

I dont think we have any cards.

Not sure what power if any we hold in this equation.

[KL Dubey]

What power/influence can India bring to the table in this fight? Its a genuine question, not a rhetorical one.

I dont think we have any cards. The slightest action against NRIs and H1Bs will cause them to vocally protest against GoI and this will be amplified by our own politicians to bring the current government down.

These are just conjectures. If it was that simple, they would have done it already. Nobody in the west wanted (or wants) Modi in power for even 1 term. It's 11 years now and probably well into the future.

[Vayutuvan]

Action by whom?

By the current US Administration?!

@Tanaji ji, in case they do act against Indian H1Bs only, their employers will sue WHOTUS in every jurisdiction. It is discrimination based on national origin. Plaintiffs would get immediate relief to start with. The case will drag on for the rest of orange Monke's term.

[Vayutuvan]

One thing we all should keep in mind is that American Business and the upper middle class Americans support Indian immigrants irrespective of their visa status. But there is a caveat. They would not like people with a chip on their shoulders. Why only them? Nobody does anywhere in the world.

[Ambar]

What power/influence can India bring to the table in this fight? Its a genuine question, not a rhetorical one.

I dont think we have any cards. The slightest action against NRIs and H1Bs will cause them to vocally protest against GoI and this will be amplified by our own politicians to bring the current government down.

We first need cards against our own! A narrative has already been created and news is being spread that India's insistence on buying Russian oil is to help Reliance/Ambani/Adani. The mainstream media and the social media "influencers" are blaming Modi saying he is tanking the economy and the INR by inviting the ire of POTUS to help Ambani/Adani. There is the usual conflating and stacking of unrelated things like government adding ethanol but not passing the savings to the consumer or buying Russian oil despite sanctions while the consumer sees no benefit of cheaper petrol.

Lets not forget that the JNU riots, anti-CAA protests and riots and farmer protests, riots and blockade of Delhi all happened during Trump's first term.

[Jay]

@Tanaji ji, in case they do act against Indian H1Bs only, their employers will sue WHOTUS in every jurisdiction. It is discrimination based on national origin. Plaintiffs would get immediate relief to start with. The case will drag on for the rest of orange Monke's term.

Sure it will drag on, but it will also make the companies move away from getting tied-up in the litigation. There is a reason why US universities are paying fines instead of fighting trump in the courts. They know they can win, but those wins will only come in 3-4 years and in this time, they will get zero funds, and all the expenses.

[Rudradev]

Action by whom?

By the current US Administration?!

Any such scenario verges on dhoti shivering. There is no upside to Trump in canceling H1Bs of those already in the US (restricting caps on new H1Bs, possibly, but how many in India are going to hit the streets in protest about a tech job and H1B visa they may or may not have got next year?)

Canceling & doing an Idi Amin on current H1B holders will hurt Trump's big tech backers in severe, immediate ways. Yes, it will please the incompetent and entitled white tech workers who think tech jobs are their birthright... but this is a pathetically weak constituency compared to the lobbies who will oppose H1B cancellation. Also an electorally useless one, because of its concentration in solidly blue-state urban centers (where the tech jobs are).

[Rudradev]

Lets not forget that the JNU riots, anti-CAA protests and riots and farmer protests, riots and blockade of Delhi all happened during Trump's first term.

And this strange little Dhankar gambit, during his second.

[Vayutuvan]

Harsh Madhusudan has some practical ideas.

OK. Harsh M mentions Mehra sitting down with Akash Singh. On a lark, I went and watched the first 15 minutes (of a 2+ hour long) of that podcast. Both HM and KM seem to like this guy Akash Singh. I detested him in the first 15 minutes itself. Now I have doubts about the wisdom of these two folks - HM and KM. I have seen KM before. His podcasts and joint shows with Sam Sharma and AIM are OK but spotty. I am not fan of KM nor AIM. SS is a whole lot better. Let me try out Harsh M. He seems to have an interesting educational arc - dropped out from IITD to go t Dartmouth for an AB(econ) and then an MBA from INSEAD.

[Vayutuvan]

There is a reason why US universities are paying fines instead of fighting trump in the courts. They know they can win, ...

It is an apples to oranges comparison. US universities were at fault by letting a few vocal radical malsi-pasand professors hijack the concept of academic freedom to serve their agenda of making the Muslims the victims after Oct 7th. Those same professors would support Paaistan in the Pahalgam terror attack. I am 100% sure. But business people were against the university admin. For example, Bill Ackman.

In this case, small and medium scale businesses will give quiet support to the bigger ones like MS, Apple, Amazon, FB, the big four mgmt consulting companies, and DC federal contractors.

[Vayutuvan]

By the current US Administration?!

Any such scenario verges on dhoti shivering.

That is why I added a after the . Also please read the rest of my short post, sir ji.