India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[chetak]

MODI MAY SEND A MESSAGE TO TRUMP THAT HE'S SKIPPING THE QUAD MEETING, BECAUSE HE IS GOING TO CHINA

That's a very likely scenario, given the way the tariffs against India are rising by the hour

The aussies and the japs are very quiet, watching trumpwa unravel and the amrikans painting themselves into a very tight corner

[SRajesh]

These are definitely more a Deep State move and DJT the willing partner in this game.
I wonder whether this is a move to break up BRICS completely.
India has refused to to agree for expansion of QUAD to anything beyond the original four and also not convert it into a NATO type alliance.
This and the recent thumping of Pakis, we will not be in a rush to order any of unkil's defence toys.
And this further enhances our reasons for not going whole hog with QUAD as a defence alliance.
Indian economy growing steadily for nearly more than a decade with a little hitch arouid the COVID.
Our Jugads and local MIC have proved a point that if given a chance they will deliver good stuff.
Population asserting itself and slowly claiming back their the true Hindu heritage.
India slowly emerging as a voice of Global South.
As this doesnt bode well for the old world Colonial Order.
Ergo the Organ Grinders have found a new willing Simian to squeeze and make him Dance and Shout!!
Voila the Tariffs!!!
Supposedly two in the BRICS to break India and Russia
That leaves Chin and Eleven to resurrect BCS to something like BEE-SUCKS-APT( Brazil, Ethiopia,Eritria-South Africa,Uzbekistan,China,Korea(north),Syria-Azerbajan,Pakistan,Turkiye!!!
And Deep State and DJT will be happy.

[g.sarkar]

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/06/poli ... ussian-oil
Trump threatens India with 50% tariff as negotiations fizzle and Modi keeps importing Russian oil
Kevin Liptak, Elisabeth Buchwald, Aug 6, 2025.
President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced sweeping and substantial tariffs on India, one of America’s most important trading partners. In addition to a 25% tariff that is set to go into effect Thursday, Trump also announced an additional 25% tariff on India that will go into effect later this month as punishment for importing Russian oil and gas.
Those combined penalties would bring the total tariff on goods imported from the world’s fifth-largest economy to a whopping 50% – among the highest the US charges.
The latest executive order, according to a document posted on the White House website, represents an escalation of his trade battle with New Delhi and his first use of so-called secondary sanctions on countries the US says are fueling Moscow’s war machine.
The order finds India is “currently directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil,” and says it is “necessary and appropriate” to apply the new 25% tariff on Indian goods.
The new, Russia-related tariffs will take effect in 21 days, while the already-threatened 25% tariff is set to take effect Thursday.
“I have received additional information from various senior officials on, among other things, the actions of the Government of the Russian Federation with respect to the situation in Ukraine,” the order notes as rationale for imposing the new duties.
The announcement came hours after Trump’s foreign envoy Steve Witkoff concluded a meeting in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump earlier this week threatened India with the new tariffs, saying they were helping Russia wage war in Ukraine.
“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine,” he wrote on social media.
India responded to Trump’s tariff escalation, defending its purchases of Russian oil.
“We have already made clear our position on these issues, including the fact that our imports are based on market factors and done with the overall objective of ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India,” a statement published Wednesday by India’s Ministry of External Affairs read.
......
Gautam
As the tariffs are ultimately paid by the consumer, increase beyond a certain value, (50%, 100% or 1000%?) may look good optically to DJT, but in practice the item is just beyond the reach of the US consumer. Modiji had ample notice of the pending move, so I am sure GOI will have counter moves ready.
Also see:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08/06/us/trump-news
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock- ... BAqg%3D%3D

[drnayar]

At this point its just based on vibes of Donald.

Otherwise there is no reason why India and Brazil have 50% and China has 30%. That and his hatred for BRICS.

There is no going back from this though. No Indian government will ever buy an American jet fighter again.

some reports about the Indian MOD has put the P8 Poseidon orders on hold !

[drnayar]

Trump upended the decades worth of bipartisan work between India and US., it s what we had suspected all along

btw Trump seems to have a few pakis as advisors in his inner circle ?!

[Rudradev]

He can raise it to 500% for all the difference it makes. At 25%, tariffs were sufficient to make any kind of trade unviable between India & the US (except for items on the 'exempted' list, naturally). The "additional 25%" is pure showmanship, similar to the headline-grabbing but ineffective missile strikes he launched against Syria (in his 1st term) and Iran more recently.

The main question is, for whose benefit is that showmanship?

[g.sarkar]

He can raise it to 500% for all the difference it makes. At 25%, tariffs were sufficient to make any kind of trade unviable between India & the US (except for items on the 'exempted' list, naturally). The "additional 25%" is pure showmanship, similar to the headline-grabbing but ineffective missile strikes he launched against Syria (in his 1st term) and Iran more recently.
The main question is, for whose benefit is that showmanship?

For the benefit of DJT.
For all practical purposes the Quad is dead. The military exercises are now meaningless, and India will now will be more neutral to China.
Gautam
Also see:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15lqe7v302o
Trump-Modi ties hit rock bottom with new tariffs on India over Russian oil.

[A_Gupta]

If Russia accepts the rupee for purchases by India, it can spend those rupees only in India, and likely UAE; or otherwise convert it to another currency, e.g., USD, to spend it elsewhere.

——
Trump’s tariffs are simply based on trying to coerce countries into trade and investment deals.

Certainly the US has to re-industrialize. But that is a slow and complex process.

Take the case of MKC - Montana Knife Company. MKC’s proprietor thought that since his product is made in the US he is immune from tariffs. But the furnace he uses to melt the steel for his knives comes from abroad and has been hit by tariffs. The cost of his equipment has gone up to $600K from $500K to because it is imported. To help this manufacturer you want to tariff finished products, not the upstream items.

That easily generalizes. To help a manufacture, don’t tariff the upstream inputs.

A careful re-industrialization policy would identify the critical items to be manufactured in country and then identify points in the supply chain which should or should not be tariffed or should or should not get government incentives or concessions.

It is likely very complicated, but that is where data, computing power, and AI can help.

[Jay]

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/06/poli ... ussian-oil
Trump threatens India with 50% tariff as negotiations fizzle and Modi keeps importing Russian oil
Kevin Liptak, Elisabeth Buchwald, Aug 6, 2025.

The moment has arrived to find out if the emperor is nude. But which emperor? We will find out soon. Great job you pedo-buffoon of a president.

[vera_k]

If Russia accepts the rupee for purchases by India, it can spend those rupees only in India, and likely UAE; or otherwise convert it to another currency, e.g., USD, to spend it elsewhere.

The purchase of a stake in that refinery shows they have things they want to buy in India, so this is not as much of an issue as it used to be in the past. Perhaps why secondary sanctions are making an appearance now.

[AkshaySG]

These are definitely more a Deep State move and DJT the willing partner in this game.

A policy thought by and followed through by DJT and targeted to energize his base and implemented by his key sub-ordinates still gets the "Deep state" label waah

Trump is no child , It's his 5th year in power and almost decade since he's been in DC and unlike his first term he now he has the judicial,cultural ,bureaucratic and legislative dominance.... every decision coming out of WH is well and truly his brainchild

At what point do we call a spade a spade rather than hiding behind boogeymen

[chetak]

At this point its just based on vibes of Donald.

Otherwise there is no reason why India and Brazil have 50% and China has 30%. That and his hatred for BRICS.

There is no going back from this though. No Indian government will ever buy an American jet fighter again.

some reports about the Indian MOD has put the P8 Poseidon orders on hold !

drnayar ji,

the cheen have 30% for now because they squeezed trumpwa's testimonials on REE, and he has not told them anything about russian oil

The canucks have made big moves, in keeping with decades of insults heaped on them by the amrikis, and these moves are nuclear, both in intent and content

canada Just Made It Law — And These 6 U.S. States Are in Trouble | 2025 Trade Fallout Explained

In a shocking move, Canada has just passed a major new trade law in 2025 — and the ripple effects are hitting the U.S. hard. This isn’t just about tariffs or trade disputes — we’re talking full-scale economic fallout.

From collapsing export markets to job losses in critical industries, certain U.S. states are facing the brunt of this decision — and the consequences could be devastating.

https://chamber.ca/news/tariff-fallout- ... rdest-hit/

[V_Raman]

All of this makes sense from one perspective - USA has realized that it is going down regardless and it is not willing to let go without a fight. Any other explanation seems far fetched.

[Jay]

These are definitely more a Deep State move and DJT the willing partner in this game.

Nope...on the contrary, this is a DJT move and the sooner people realize this reality the better the outcome will be.

[chetak]

All of this makes sense from one perspective - USA has realized that it is going down regardless and it is not willing to let go without a fight. Any other explanation does not make sense.

V_Raman ji,

why trigger your own downfall.

Didn't take too much of a brain to see where this could end up.

The amrikis have become gun shy and they are fearful of getting boots on the ground

You cannot be a "dirty harry" type of soooper power any more, if you are nor willing to get your hair mussed up a little

there is no upside to this fiasco

[bkswarti]

We should ask the Israelis for dirt on this pedophile. This will make all the tarrifs go away.

[Rudradev]

Certainly the US has to re-industrialize. But that is a slow and complex process.

...

That easily generalizes. To help a manufacture, don’t tariff the upstream inputs.

A careful re-industrialization policy would identify the critical items to be manufactured in country and then identify points in the supply chain which should or should not be tariffed or should or should not get government incentives or concessions.

CNBC has a nice short documentary about the challenges involved. They are far beyond the Trump administration's capacity to overcome.


Interesting that even as of two months ago, there were 415,000 open US-based jobs in manufacturing that they cannot find Americans to fill.

Meanwhile April (*edited) -June 2025 were the worst three months for US jobs growth since the pandemic.

Unemployment is at 4.2% (and climbing), compared to a low of 3.5% in 2023.

Wage growth is at a rock bottom of 3.7%, compared to 5.75% in mid 2022.

Inflation is up to 2.7% and if Trump succeeds in pressuring the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates, it will only go up. This is before most of the tariffs have begun to bite, btw.

So maybe India won't actually need to do very much in retaliation (other than wait, watch the fun, and enjoy the meltdowns following high-level engagement with Beijing/Moscow). Wasn't it Napoleon who said "Never interfere with the enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself"?

[skumar]

Trump's latest salvo has multiple reasons -

1. Beat up India to hide his TACO on China from the world. Use this as an example with Brazil and South Africa.
2. Provide negotiating levers to the US team coming to India in the 3rd/4th week of August for the next round of negotiations who can project that Trump is very "angry". They could try giving reductions of tariffs to 25% as a "concession" while trying to extract other concessions from India. Before next round of negotiations, India should respond by taking a few steps like increasing existing Equalization Levy / Digital Services Taxes only on US companies like Amazon etc.
3. Force Modi to call him. It is great that Trump is still "waiting" for the call - let us keep him waiting forever. There is no point talking to Trump directly and we have everything to lose because he is not aware of basic facts and there is no saying what Trump may claim after any call happens. It is better to let the negotiations complete formally.
4. Pressure Russia into a quicker ceasefire.

[Vayutuvan]

They know they can win, but those wins will only come in 3-4 years and in this time, they will get zero funds, and all the expenses.

While even a single one of the cases is in the legal system, nobody can be deported (?). It can be made into a class action lawsuit. There are a lot of lawyers who do pro bono work. If those lawyers have already made money in practicing corporate law/IP law/M&A and have any pretentions of entering politics, litigation is the best way to become famous.

Normal law practice is very boring. Litigation can bring in big changes in the law. Either precedent setting or getting law changed for a class of people who have been ignored.

Just imagine a lawyer who fights on behalf of the H1Bs and wins. Once these H1Bs become citizens, they will give big money.

I suggest that H1Bs should not fight on the streets. Who has the time to do street protests and can take the attendant risks involved?!!!

[bala]

Maybe India should offer to broker a peace deal between Deadnald Trumfumer and Putin, tis a nuclear flash point (pbuh US NSA Sandy Berger & B. Clinton) with worlds major stash of nuke weapons. Another one btween Deadnald Trumfumer and Emperor, another nuclear flashpoint (pbuh US Kissinger & China Mao).

[Vayutuvan]

I wondered if the yanks modeled this from game theorietic and other perspective. Because one could argue trump will accelerate de-dolarization.

Absolutely that is what it is. More the number of players in the game, harder it is to control. In the ideal case, the US would want this to be a two person game - US and supporting countries on one side vs China and its supporters. Both India and Brazil have the heft and the technology to create a third player in the game. Also geopolitically, the US considers all of Americas to be their sphere of influence.

[A_Gupta]

At this point, only the “Deep State”, if it exists, can rescue the India-US relationship.

No one in the Trump administration is willing to contradict him, unlike his first term.

I was listening to a Department of State press briefing, and the spokeslady said, paraphrase, I can only represent Marco Rubio’s thinking, and President Trump can come up with new and brilliant things at any time (that invalidate what I told you).

[bala]

India offered major trade concessions to the U.S., including zero tariffs on industrial goods — which account for two-fifths of American exports to India — and a commitment to buy up to $25 billion in U.S. energy, while further boosting already-surging defense deals. But Trump, true to form, wanted more ....

https://x.com/Chellaney/status/1953017335192993885

[drnayar]

Boeing Orders pending with Indian Carriers

1. Air India - $ 30 B
2. Indigo - $ 9 B
3. Akasa - $ 10 B

A single review of Boeing Orders can hit US for 50 Billion US Dollars

[bala]

I don't understand why some on this forum are hell-bent on denying the "Deep State" and its control on the US political and administrative dispensation. The "Deep State" crown council etc are well documented, Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan has enough YTs, Aadi Achint too, just look them up. The "Deep State" exists worldwide and in their previous avatar were the colonizers/looters of the world that includes the 300 T pounds of loot taken from India. Most of the key Deep State operatives switched to US as their base after the sunset of Britshit empire after WW-II. There is a distinction between johnny come lately and some new entrants like MickeySoft BillGates, or Clinton clan - these are supporters but not quite the deep state. Blue blooded one are like the Rothschild family of Germany. These fellows control 300+ T of assets worldwide and their writ is on many things, they usually fly under the radar and not make themselves conspicuous, they leave it to the loud mouths to carry on their agenda. When you see confusing things happen, it invariably means certain influencers are behind the scenes and doing the arm twisting with actual boku cash involved.

[vera_k]

Alright. Deep state will not want Russian investment in India, since it drives up the price of assets they might covet. India-Russia oil trade makes such investment possible and potentially very lucrative if India is willing to let Russia acquire equity.

[Rudradev]

At this point, only the “Deep State”, if it exists, can rescue the India-US relationship.

No one in the Trump administration is willing to contradict him, unlike his first term.

I was listening to a Department of State press briefing, and the spokeslady said, paraphrase, I can only represent Marco Rubio’s thinking, and President Trump can come up with new and brilliant things at any time (that invalidate what I told you).

US relations with an India that continues to be governed by Modi Sarkar are not in the alleged "Deep State's" interest to salvage.

They would rather let all this play out, hoping (with the usual hubris) that the Indian economy will collapse under the barrage of US tariffs, causing voters to turn against Modi/BJP and instead give one of their chosen proxies a chance to seize power in New Delhi.

By then, Trump's Presidency will be over, and a happy reset can be made between a new Democrat regime in DC and a new "I.N.D.I" one in India.

[Vayutuvan]

They know they can win, but those wins will only come in 3-4 years and in this time, they will get zero funds, and all the expenses.

What is interesting to me is that there is not a squeak from Indian-American congress critters Sri Thanedar, Raja Krishnamoorty, Ro Khanna, Pramila Jayapal, and three (or is it two?) others. Also nothing on the tariff war with India. Nada zilch. Remember the amount the noise Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib made when Gaza was pounded. They also stood with all those students protesting with "From the River to the Sea" placards.

[Tanaji]

Action by whom?

By the current US Administration?!

@Tanaji ji, in case they do act against Indian H1Bs only, their employers will sue WHOTUS in every jurisdiction. It is discrimination based on national origin. Plaintiffs would get immediate relief to start with. The case will drag on for the rest of orange Monke's term.

Fair enough and if it gets to be a class then it becomes quite interesting. However, the US Supreme Court where this will most likely end up is increasingly partisan and may side with Trump admin. US white collar workers will vociferously support Trump action and this will get media play. Let’s face it- everyone likes to dump on Indians and racism against us is normalised. I doubt employers will help- why would they risk Orange wrath?

H1Bs will be an easy target for Trump if he wants to up the ante. I think India will offer some concessions now. Btw, this is classic Trump strategy - start with an outrageous position and expect others to make more and more concessions - for him, the other party must lose and more importantly publicly seen to lose for him for him to be happy.

The other question is whether any agreement reached even after concessions is worth the paper it is printed on. There is nothing stopping him from putting another 25% duty 6 month down the line even if current situation is resolved. This is an extortion racket that he is running right now and the only answer is to not play that game…

[Vayutuvan]

We should ask the Israelis for dirt on this pedophile. This will make all the tarrifs go away.

Why would they give? What does Bharat has that Israel wants?

[A_Gupta]

FYI, "Turkey Imports from Russia was US$44.02 Billion during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade."

[Rudradev]

India cannot, and will not, make the slightest concession to the US. Trump has made 100% sure of that with his approach. Unless there is a total 180 from Washington, it's either go with RIC or go it alone as an aspiring pole... eating whatever inevitable economic losses and slowdowns this may entail.

Indians who went to the US (either as students, H1Bs or green card holders) did so with full knowledge that their status there is entirely at the pleasure of the US govt— it's not an entitlement, and it has never been within GOI's purview or capacity to influence America's sovereign decisions about foreigners residing within its borders.

This will not stop some % of them from whining against Modi sarkar if they become the target of Trump's retaliation against India. But apart from basic good will, protection from blatant human-rights abuses, and a flight back home, India has no obligations to them if they are targeted for deportation— certainly not at the cost of compromising India's own national interests. It never has. And the vast majority of Indian voters understand that perfectly well.

I also don't see any chance of Trump explicitly targeting "only Indian-origin H1Bs"... why should he do that, and risk getting blocked for discrimination, when the overwhelming majority of H1B holders are Indians anyway? Just end the program altogether, and offer some other pathway for the small fraction of H1B holders whom corporate employers declare to be absolutely indispensable.

[A_Gupta]

US relations with an India that continues to be governed by Modi Sarkar are not in the alleged "Deep State's" interest to salvage.

You may be right, but what emanates from those who might comprise the "Deep State" is that America's primary adversary is China, not Russia. So they do not want to alienate India.

It is also components of the I.N.D.I. alliance that are saying that India should completely withdraw from any partnerships with the US. The "Deep State" has no assurance that an I.N.D.I. alliance will not be China-pasand, and indifferent to the US.

This is Eric Garcetti, former ambassador: "“India bought Russian oil because we wanted someone to purchase it at a price cap. That was not a violation; in fact, it was the intent of the policy. As a commodity, we aimed to prevent the price of oil from rising, and they fulfilled that.”"

---
I should also point out that Trump going after India is not new.

The Trump administration's "America First" trade policy led to the imposition of tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum in 2018. This was followed by the termination of India's benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in 2019, which had allowed for tariff-free entry of certain Indian goods into the U.S. The administration's rationale for these actions centered on allegations of unfair trade practices by India and the desire to reduce the U.S. trade deficit.


India retaliated with tariffs on a range of American goods, including agricultural products. This tit-for-tat escalation created a significant strain on the bilateral relationship, even as strategic and defense ties were deepening, largely driven by shared concerns over China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

----

[Vayutuvan]

https://www.financialexpress.com/busine ... s-3936367/

As H-1B and student visa hurdles grow, Indians turn to US investment visas
Despite curiosity surrounding the programme, whose launch date and specifics remain undisclosed, data reveals that the existing EB-5 visa — which the Gold Card is set to replace — has witnessed record-high applications from India in the past year.
Written by Shubham Chhabra
August 4, 2025 19:59 IST

...
Sharp Rise in EB-5 Filings
According to the American Immigrant Investor Alliance (AIIA), demand from Indian citizens for EB-5 has surged since April 2024, driven by stricter controls on student and temporary work visas under the Trump administration. Data from United States Immigration Fund (USIF), which operates designated EB-5 regional centres, reinforces this trend.


“In the first four months of FY2025 (October 2024-January 2025), Indian applicants filed more than 1,200 I-526E petitions across reserved categories — more than any prior full year,” said Nicholas Mastroianni III, president and CMO of USIF.
...

If those 1200 are all for the gold card, that USD 6 billion in four months. At that rate outflow from India will be easily US$20 billion plus i n2025 alone.

Mumbai Leads in EB-5 Filings
Data from Invest In the USA (IIUSA) shows 1,428 EB-5 visas issued to Indians in FY2024, compared to 815 in FY2023. Most filings were processed through the US consulate in Mumbai. Out of the total 638 unreserved consular processing applicants between October 2024 and May 2025, 543 filed through the US consulate in Mumbai, the data indicated.

“India shows a positive trend in approval rates over the years. India’s approval rate rose from 59% in FY2022 to 82% in FY2024,” said Ravneit Kaur Brar, Attorney-at-law in California.

[Manish_P]

...
Sparked a thought. All this may be an effort to prop up the USD.
....

An old movie quote - 'When there is any doubt, there is no doubt'

[bala]

India’s Multifront External & Internal Asymmetric Challenges / Lt Gen Vinod Khandare

Gen Khandare and Gen Shankar provide details on multi front threats and asymmetric challenges that India faces. The asymmetric threats could be internal or external and range from economic, geo political, idealogical and societal. In idealogical terms there is nothing in common between Russia, China and India, however there are discussions on US and India being democracies - one the oldest and the other the largest. Pragmatically one idealogy that grips the world is economics and in the case of Orangeman Trumpf it is all about deals and how to win at it. The threats to India are many and the traditional ones have been nations like Pak and China. Maybe there are threats that are not quite obvious like say cyber threats. The traditional foes are at it but there are others that engage in such activities for many other reasons and most in India are not aware. Any nation dealing with economics, negotiation of technology, critical infrastructure and any negotiation may resort to cyber threats. China has induged in 3 prong warfare - legal, directly and indirectly. Legally by challenging claims on territory, directly like galwan and indirectly by Pak. But we don't know whether China is using other nations simultaneously by slight modifications to the 3 strategies. India is being attacked in various ways by multiple actors for their own selfish goals some prompted by other alliance members.

India is plagued internally by many Indians who tell foreigners about internal faults freely and proudly. Many examples over India's history proves how vulnerable the nation of India is subjected to such telltale individuals and despite such fissures has held on so far. There are many nations that take advantage and there are concerted media and tv showing India in the poorest light. India's own legacy britshit systems are a bane towards progress like the babucracy and judiciary which take cover under the dubious nature of a written constitution completely irrelevant in the Indian context. There are so many foreign concepts which are meaningless in the India ethos of life.

This talk is highly relevant since some clarity on relationships with nations like the US are under a huge cloud. Maybe it is time to re-evaluate all relationships anew and forge a better strategy to deal with such "googlies" thrown at you.

[Cain Marko]

Frankly this whole tariff business seems to me a dog and pony show. It will all be sorted out.

1. Russia and US will come to an understanding
2. India will allow for US dairy products, which really shouldn't be an issue. And possibly some farm products.
3. India will likely acquiesce to major defense purchases from the US

I might have to eat crow later for saying this. But I really doubt this drama is anything substantial.