Bharat Rakshak

Amber G. wrote:This may be of interest to some:

India Science' question hour covid-19 phone-in let's talk vaccine: with Prof ( Dr ) Ashok Seth , Padma Bhushan, - Today 10th May 2021 at 3.P.M to 3.30 P.M. One can send queries live on India Science today

I think the youtube version (will check later to see if it is okay) https://youtu.be/br-vGlcwSJI

This is an excellent presentation. Please watch and share.
Consistent with what I have been telling *all* my family, and everyone who will listen to me, for a few months - but Prof Seth articulates it much better.

- Masks (preferably N95) and proper wearing it is extremely important.
(In closed rooms, or crowded place, "do gaz doori" is not sufficient. This along with good ventilation and avoiding crowd is the *most* important part.
It also has very good hints on how to fight the infection, info about vaccinations, medicines - excellent Q&A
Certainly worth to listen. (You tube link so you can speed it up 30 minutes video ) Here is the link again:

chetak wrote:

Suraj wrote:
This is a great piece of news. I knew that Bharat Biotech and Panacea Biotec were the only two private players with BSL-3 facilities. It appears this Intervet also had one, and Bharat Biotech swiftly moved in to take over the facility. I hope GoI and GoMH invest funds into enabling this facility to be ramped up quickly.

Covaxin seems to have a well set path to ~70m doses/month from BB plus 30-40m from IIL+BIBCOL by August. Any further capacity would be great.

just saying onlee: I have faith in Modi and he will find the solution.

Bharat Biotech has gone the unstoppable route via the courts.

MVA recalcitrance is of little concern now

and all there are new facilities without advance orders booked and delivery concerns.

Their entire output can be utilized fully in India and on priority

There's lot riding on Covaxin because they're demonstrating ability to marshall multiple lines of production. Yes it is sad that only 1-2 are currently running but each of them needs to be BSL-3 standard and that takes time and money to accomplish; no one wants to see a sloppy plant venting Covid-19 into the air. Covaxin now has the following lines:
BB Hyderabad (multiple): partly online
BB Bangalore: just started. Combined capacity 70m/month.
IIL: Not started yet. ETA Juiy. Investment sanctioned Nov 2020. 15-20m/month.
BIBCOL: Not started yet. ETA July. Investment sanctioned Nov 2020. 15-20m/month.
Haffkine: Not started yet. ETA late 2021. Investment sanctioned Apr 2021. 15m/month
Intervet: Not started yet. ETA unknown. Volume unknown.
Panacea Biotec: in negotiations. ETA, volume known.

They seem on track to get to 100m/month by August as currently estimated. That would be higher than current Covishield production.

the two parties in telangana are known to be viciously extractive and may be anticipating a bumper harvest.

Hope that there is no interference from them like there was for adar in MAH

Novavax combined influenza/COVID-19 vaccine shows promise in animal study
Even a 'Bad' Flu Vaccine Could Save 61,000 Lives

Looking forward to these types of vaccines. If these become available in India, it will lead to an improvement in life expectancy due to better management of the flu.

Suraj wrote:

chetak wrote:
just saying onlee: I have faith in Modi and he will find the solution.

Bharat Biotech has gone the unstoppable route via the courts.

MVA recalcitrance is of little concern now

and all there are new facilities without advance orders booked and delivery concerns.

Their entire output can be utilized fully in India and on priority

There's lot riding on Covaxin because they're demonstrating ability to marshall multiple lines of production. Yes it is sad that only 1-2 are currently running but each of them needs to be BSL-3 standard and that takes time and money to accomplish; no one wants to see a sloppy plant venting Covid-19 into the air. Covaxin now has the following lines:
BB Hyderabad (multiple): partly online
BB Bangalore: just started. Combined capacity 70m/month.
IIL: Not started yet. ETA Juiy. Investment sanctioned Nov 2020. 15-20m/month.
BIBCOL: Not started yet. ETA July. Investment sanctioned Nov 2020. 15-20m/month.
Haffkine: Not started yet. ETA late 2021. Investment sanctioned Apr 2021. 15m/month
Intervet: Not started yet. ETA unknown. Volume unknown.
Panacea Biotec: in negotiations. ETA, volume known.

They seem on track to get to 100m/month by August as currently estimated. That would be higher than current Covishield production.

Bangalore BB can produce 70 m per month now?

That means they can support 2.3 m vaccionations per day overall in India.

If Covishield can do another 2.3 m per day, it will be 4.6 Million per day right now.

We can do that now, we can scale up next month. We are doing hardly 2 million per day right now

Finally I see a negative number. May be it is too early to celebrate but looking at the past 10 days the trend of active cases is down. Confirmed cases - Recoveries is NEGATIVE today. 329379-355745 = NEGATIVE 26,366

Link

Covaxin is a killed virus vaccine, which means that they can adapt quickly to variants.

I hope that they are working on a booster shot or the basic vaccine itself around the B.1.617 variant.

nandakumar wrote:

sohamn wrote:

Right now Cadila has internal capacity to produce 1 Cr vaccine a month, they are working to see if that can be optimized to produce 1.4 Cr a month in-house, furthermore they are discussing with some contract manufacturers to explore another 1 Cr dose a month. By the end of the year they will attempt to produce 2.4 Cr a month. For a 3 Shot vaccine these numbers will make no difference.

The real change will happen by end of August when Bio-e and Baylors vaccine will come in play as they can churn around 7Cr a month and at the same time Serum will exceed 10 Cr a month and BB crossing 5 Cr a month. This will be further augumented by smaller numbers from Sputnik, Cadila and J&J.

Even if they put in place in-house manufacturing capacity of 14 million per month output that translates into roughly 8 million citizens per month vaccination capacity (in equivalent doses of a 2 shot vaccination). That is nearly 160% of what Covaxin capacity which can vaccinate 5 million persons per month (10 million by 2). Not insubstantial.

How did you translate 1.4 Cr a month to 80 Lac citizens vaccinated for a 3 dose vaccine? Didn't get your math. Plz explain.

Anujan wrote:Covaxin is a killed virus vaccine, which means that they can adapt quickly to variants.

I hope that they are working on a booster shot or the basic vaccine itself around the B.1.617 variant.

As per Dr Ella, its up to ICMR to decide on booster dose / or dose specifically catering to India or UK Variant. As of today they have received no information from ICMR to change the formulation, but also indicated that they can make the alteration within a month if given a go ahead by ICMR.

a really nice compilation of info & connection of dots reg. the recent mews about the leaked chinese document of 2015, and then more:

Scientists claims immediate use of ivermectin as the cure for COVID-19
May 9, 2021 by Lokmat

The COVID-19 spread has wrecked havoc across the globe with the use of vaccine proving to be less effective in controlling the spread of the virus. Now, a peer-reviewed research has claimed that global ivermectin use can end Covid-19 pandemic, as the medicine significantly reduces the risk of contracting the deadly respiratory disease when used regularly. The common antiparasitic ivermectin is being touted as a miracle cure for Covid-19 by doctors and campaigners the world over reviewed by medical experts that included three US government senior scientists and published in the American Journal of Therapeutics, the research is the most comprehensive review of the available data taken from clinical, in vitro, animal, and real-world studies.
Led by the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC), a group of medical and scientific experts reviewed published peer-reviewed studies, manuscripts, expert meta-analyses, and epidemiological analyses of regions with ivermectin distribution efforts all showing that ivermectin is an effective prophylaxis and treatment for COVID-19."We did the work that the medical authorities failed to do, we conducted the most comprehensive review of the available data on ivermectin," said Pierre Kory, MD, president and chief medical officer of the FLCCC. "We applied the gold standard to qualify the data reviewed before concluding that ivermectin can end this pandemic. "A focus of the manuscript was on the 27 controlled trials available in January 2021, 15 of which were randomised controlled trials (RCT's). Many regions around the world now recognise that ivermectin is a powerful prophylaxis and treatment for COVID-19. South Africa, Zimbabwe, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Mexico, and India have approved the drug for use by medical professionals.

http://dhunt.in/f8PGn?s=a&ss=pd

vijayk wrote:Bangalore BB can produce 70 m per month now?

That means they can support 2.3 m vaccionations per day overall in India.

If Covishield can do another 2.3 m per day, it will be 4.6 Million per day right now.

We can do that now, we can scale up next month. We are doing hardly 2 million per day right now

No, my best interpretation is that BB Hyderabad + Bangalore facilities can do 70m/month by July/Aug. Bangalore just started functioning this month and Dr. Ella states that production is due to rise to 30m this month from all sources because of it - see quote earlier.

Covaxin has stated ability to neutralize B.1.617:
bioRxiv link
News

<<deleted>>

sanjayc wrote:Currently, BB produces about 20 million doses per month of Covaxin . From June, this will reach over 25 million doses per month. The Bangalore facility will start producing 50 million doses per month by August. So, by Aug, BB would be producing just over 75 million doses per month.

Thanks. What about Serum?

No idea about Serum.

Meanwhile, Bharat Biotech CMD Krishna Ella at an event said that the company will produce 30 million doses of Covaxin next month against around 20 million doses this month and 15 million in the last month. “Last month we produced 15 million doses, this month we are reaching 20 million doses, next month we will be making around 30 million doses followed by 70 to 75 million doses,” Mr. Ella said.

He said that the company expects to reach a production capacity of up to 800 million doses per annum by July-August. “We are ramping up the production and by July-August we will be able to reach 700 to 800 million doses production capacity per annum,” Mr. Ella said.

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Indus ... 367039.ece

SII was due to expand to 100m doses/month in May/June, but this has now been pushed back to June/July.

SII's longer term problem is that they're running out of runway. The Covishield license is for 1 billion doses, and the agreement in some form is that 50% is for India and 50% for ROW (developing world only). So far they're already produced around 240m doses, counting Indian consumption, exports and stockpiles/in pipeline. Perhaps the trip to UK was to also expand the license agreement for a larger volume.

I shared this on January 8th of this year on SM .. and with everyone who will listen to us.

>>> Original Message on Jan 8, 2021
This is MUCH worse than many of us imagined. VERY SERIOUS!
Unless this virus is crushed NOW, we are in extreme danger. *Every* data suggests that the new B117 SARSCoV2 variant is so much more contagious ( Increases effect R by +0.4 to +0.7) & inevitable that **if we (or any country where it spread) does not crush the R<0.7 now**, really dark days ahead .. by Feb/March this may be very hard to control.
Please stay safe! Get vaccination if you can.
Buy some N95 Masks and use them if you are outside your home in a closed area.
If you have any influence with people in leadership - ask them to trust our scientists and do everything possible, including a lockdown, if they suggest so.

I posted this about 4 Months ago ..something obvious to scientists ..But the prediction, as one can see, were *very* accurate. (It shows how the spread will go with typical R values achieved)

To be fair, some/many in central government in India took it seriously but I sure wish that those in Delhi and Mumbai administration listen to us more than playing petty political games -- Crowds, supporting Protests, spreading horrendous lies against our vaccines and what not.
R value for these places was about 1.08 on March 5.
It became even worse, right now it is back to 1.08.
PLEASE STAY SAFE. WEAR MASK (preferably N95), AVOID CROWDS and get Vaccinated as soon possible:

Problem is that nobody and I mean nobody follows these three things you mentioned. "WEAR MASK (preferably N95), AVOID CROWDS and get Vaccinated".

Lots of folks complaining now about lack of vaccines in India were hesitant to get the "BJP ki vaccine" (Akhilesh Yadav's words not mine) a month or two ago. I can only imagine how much vaccine was wasted in India due to lack of storage and lack of demand for vaccine.

Suraj wrote:SII's longer term problem is that they're running out of runway. The Covishield license is for 1 billion doses, and the agreement in some form is that 50% is for India and 50% for ROW (developing world only). So far they're already produced around 240m doses, counting Indian consumption, exports and stockpiles/in pipeline. Perhaps the trip to UK was to also expand the license agreement for a larger volume.

That may be why he is setting up a plant in the UK, to meet his ROW obligations.

BMC to procure Covid-19 shots, devises steps to make vaccination accessible

BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is exploring a global tender for vaccines and is devising a procedure to enable non-tech savvy citizens to register for Covid-19 vaccination, environment and tourism minister Aditya Thackeray said on Monday.

The corporation also plans to set up vaccination centres in each of 24 municipal wards and has also issued vaccination guidelines for housing societies.

So SII cannot produce more than 500M doses for India - 1B vials across the 2 shots? what kind of an arrangement is that? What will the produciton line do after that?

V_Raman wrote:So SII cannot produce more than 500M doses for India - 1B vials across the 2 shots? what kind of an arrangement is that? What will the produciton line do after that?

I think they have their own vaccine coming going thru Phase 3 trials

Dosage
MB shows best results when used as a prophylactic and in the early stages of the disease (when spO2 is above 92–93%). In severe cases its administration as an add on therapy improves final outcomes depending on the progress of the disease.

Dosage for Prophylaxis (i.e. for prevention)

MB shows best results as a prophylactic & should be considered as the primary line of treatment in the general unaffected population.

Sublingual administration of 0.1% w/v concentration daily (till the pandemic lasts) — swallow what is not absorbed in approx. 30 seconds (2.5 ml) OD
OR : If possible; 1.25 ML twice a day
Dosage for Patients

In affected patients in their early stage of the disease (spO2 more than 92%); Nebulized MB is a supportive line of treatment and has shown to improve the final clinical outcome.

One ampule of Dexona + one ampule Duolin in nebulized form BD
MB in nebulzed form 0.1% w/v of BD (NOT to be mixed with Dexona + Duolin) 5 ml b.d.
Post recovery, continue to administer MB Nebulizer OD till 6 minute walk test is normal

The WHO chief scientist is Indian.

She is a paediatrician and she is the daughter of M S Swaminathan, the Green Revolution guy.

Qualifications, pedigree, responsibility and beauty.

The severe exploitation of the masses by the private healthcare sector in India, demonstrates why nationalized healthcare should be paramount in India where the asymmetry is so high. The Raita wing with its love for now retired western style capitalism keeps tomtomming a completely privatized healthcare sector. This would be devastating to India. The rapacious treatment meted out by private healthcare units is for all to see.
The raita’s need to shove their brainless ideas where the sun don’t shine.
Ever so often that looney Niti Aayog fellow will come up with some failed Reagan era idea which Swarajya will write about.

sohamn wrote:

nandakumar wrote: Even if they put in place in-house manufacturing capacity of 14 million per month output that translates into roughly 8 million citizens per month vaccination capacity (in equivalent doses of a 2 shot vaccination). That is nearly 160% of what Covaxin capacity which can vaccinate 5 million persons per month (10 million by 2). Not insubstantial.

How did you translate 1.4 Cr a month to 80 Lac citizens vaccinated for a 3 dose vaccine? Didn't get your math.
Oops! I got my maths wrong. It should be 70 lakh citizen vaccinations per month further derated by two thirds to adjust for it being a three shot vaccination as opposed to two-shot vaccination in the case of existing candidates.

Jarita wrote:The severe exploitation of the masses by the private healthcare sector in India, demonstrates why nationalized healthcare should be paramount in India where the asymmetry is so high. The Raita wing with its love for now retired western style capitalism keeps tomtomming a completely privatized healthcare sector. This would be devastating to India. The rapacious treatment meted out by private healthcare units is for all to see.
The raita’s need to shove their brainless ideas where the sun don’t shine.
Ever so often that looney Niti Aayog fellow will come up with some failed Reagan era idea which Swarajya will write about.

A balanced healthcare with both public and private options provides choices to those who can afford (private) and access to those who can’t afford (public).

Public

• access to all
• no personalization in care
• waitlist for non-emergency treatments
• care rationalized to serve many
• expensive for the government
• less efficient (and potential corruption by officials)
• less income for healthcare professionals (less talent potentially)

Private (profit-driven)

• best possible treatments to those who can afford
• personalized care
• immediate access to non-emergency treatments
• choices in insurance policies for what one wants
• high income for healthcare professionals
• less GDP budget spending by Government
• expensive for the poor, pre-existing conditions, long-term ailments
• no treatment serviced prior to upfront payment

vimal wrote:Problem is that nobody and I mean nobody follows these three things you mentioned. "WEAR MASK (preferably N95), AVOID CROWDS and get Vaccinated".

Lots of folks complaining now about lack of vaccines in India were hesitant to get the "BJP ki vaccine" (Akhilesh Yadav's words not mine) a month or two ago. I can only imagine how much vaccine was wasted in India due to lack of storage and lack of demand for vaccine.

I know a lawyer family friend, fairly young in his 40s, died due to Covid 2 weeks back. He was also a local Congress politician. His family kept on insisting him to get vaccinated, but he refused, because in his words it is "Modi's & BJP's vaccine". He had no logical basis for that except for his blind belief in the words of national senior opposition politicians. These opposition buffons should mind their words.

Here is a compelling data driven article stating that the Zamindari protests caused the 2nd wave. As feared in this very threads.

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/data-s ... 9-in-india

Yes, several forum members raised concerns about the spread at zamindar's protest and then the Jan 26 event where the zamindars ran amok among the population of Delhi.

And Kejriwal invited this zamindars and he invited the 2nd wave. On the political altar the opposition sacrificed innocents.

Amber G. wrote:I shared this on January 8th of this year on SM .. and with everyone who will listen to us.

>>> Original Message on Jan 8, 2021
This is MUCH worse than many of us imagined. VERY SERIOUS!
Unless this virus is crushed NOW, we are in extreme danger. *Every* data suggests that the new B117 SARSCoV2 variant is so much more contagious ( Increases effect R by +0.4 to +0.7) & inevitable that **if we (or any country where it spread) does not crush the R<0.7 now**, really dark days ahead .. by Feb/March this may be very hard to control.
Please stay safe! Get vaccination if you can.
Buy some N95 Masks and use them if you are outside your home in a closed area.
If you have any influence with people in leadership - ask them to trust our scientists and do everything possible, including a lockdown, if they suggest so.

I posted this about 4 Months ago ..something obvious to scientists ..But the prediction, as one can see, were *very* accurate. (It shows how the spread will go with typical R values achieved)

To be fair, some/many in central government in India took it seriously but I sure wish that those in Delhi and Mumbai administration listen to us more than playing petty political games -- Crowds, supporting Protests, spreading horrendous lies against our vaccines and what not.
R value for these places was about 1.08 on March 5.
It became even worse, right now it is back to 1.08.
PLEASE STAY SAFE. WEAR MASK (preferably N95), AVOID CROWDS and get Vaccinated as soon possible:

Yes, Amber'ji., You did make that prediction.

I also feel that Delhi cut down on testing so that the pandemic rages on. Can it be proven by data?

I also linked the swarajyamag article above. Can you please see if the data is correct? You can work with your buddies who modeled SUTRA and see if the article is in the right.

the way things are headed

nam wrote:There is no death, so far of non-Chinese people? How did more than 100 Chinese die then? I feel this has more to do with negligence, rather serious mortality rate.

Can somebody please explain why this chinese wuhan Virus didn't mutate in china.......

or is that a fact too well hidden to determine easily

Distressing news of dead bodies suspected to be of covid deaths not cremated floating down the Ganga and piling up at Ghazipur and Buxar. Reportedly for lack of wood for the pyre. Bihar and UP officials blaming each other. Hindu society, organisations & administrations cant let such thing happen in 21st century, that too in the middle of this pandemic.

I'll be thankful if anyone can point me to a voluntary organisation that takes care of cremating the dead, I will donate.

srai wrote:

Jarita wrote:The severe exploitation of the masses by the private healthcare sector in India, demonstrates why nationalized healthcare should be paramount in India where the asymmetry is so high. The Raita wing with its love for now retired western style capitalism keeps tomtomming a completely privatized healthcare sector. This would be devastating to India. The rapacious treatment meted out by private healthcare units is for all to see.
The raita’s need to shove their brainless ideas where the sun don’t shine.
Ever so often that looney Niti Aayog fellow will come up with some failed Reagan era idea which Swarajya will write about.

A balanced healthcare with both public and private options provides choices to those who can afford (private) and access to those who can’t afford (public).

Public

• access to all
• no personalization in care
• waitlist for non-emergency treatments
• care rationalized to serve many
• expensive for the government
• less efficient (and potential corruption by officials)
• less income for healthcare professionals (less talent potentially)

Private (profit-driven)

• best possible treatments to those who can afford
• personalized care
• immediate access to non-emergency treatments
• choices in insurance policies for what one wants
• high income for healthcare professionals
• less GDP budget spending by Government
• expensive for the poor, pre-existing conditions, long-term ailments
• no treatment serviced prior to upfront payment

A lot of the points you have provided re public spend on healthcare are not accurate. Eventually, it boils down to spend as a percentage of GDP. And when you look at indicators like life expectancy and mortality several nations which invest in public healthcare are much better.
Healthcare is one area where there are other countries to follow instead of just the US.
Yes the privatized healthcare Must exist for those who can afford to pay. But that cannot be the primary in India.
Add to the poor services offered during this wave of Covid (there is simply no accountability), families will have to pay hospital fees for generations. It is completely rapacious.

Cyrano wrote:Distressing news of dead bodies suspected to be of covid deaths not cremated floating down the Ganga and piling up at Ghazipur and Buxar. Reportedly for lack of wood for the pyre. Bihar and UP officials blaming each other. Hindu society, organisations & administrations cant let such thing happen in 21st century, that too in the middle of this pandemic.

I'll be thankful if anyone can point me to a voluntary organisation that takes care of cremating the dead, I will donate.

I have a simple question. Can we not have portable crematoriums? Why must people rely on firewood?
Portable crematoriums can be installed and are a more controlled environment. The way we are going, we are risking spread through conventional cremations. Under normal circumstances it is ok, but in such a situation, quick disposal is required and electric crematoriums can turn the body to ash quickly.

Sorry to be macabre.

I know a lawyer family friend, fairly young in his 40s, died due to Covid 2 weeks back. He was also a local Congress politician. His family kept on insisting him to get vaccinated, but he refused, because in his words it is "Modi's & BJP's vaccine". He had no logical basis for that except for his blind belief in the words of national senior opposition politicians. These opposition buffons should mind their words.

Every public servant who publicly dissuaded people from taking vaccines has blood on their hands and needs to be penalize or jailed. Now this is what the courts need to be working on, instead of rubbish advise.