2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

[Amber G.]

Shiv:

Safekeeping, yes not cooling. In USA if and when the Yucca thingy comes on line, the nuke material may be stored. I dont think you need decades before you can send these to storage, it is more like years.

Saip - Just a little checking, or calculation, I am sure, will be helpful than mere guessing. /smile/

1000 Tons of typical fuel rods (just for perspective, in Fukushima the order is about 3000 tons) even after a year will generate ..oh .. about 10 Mega Watt .. it will generate 1 Mega watt or more even after 10 years. ( Even I have mention it in brf ) Power for voyager space-craft comes from same principle (same material too /smile/) and that has been working for decades. (Inside of earth is hot, for many many decades precisely for the same reason...)...

BTW, I mentioned, few weeks ago, in NJ, there was new law passed (or debated) where 30 years time limit was (limit on how long one can store before sending it to Yucca) being changed to 60 years. /smile/

[Amber G.]

Guru Prabhu (and others) - You may like to watch this:
Physics 10 - Lecture 01: Atoms and Heat
Around the end it explains 'internal energy' as you so expertly commented (and how it is related to absolute temperature etc)

Chaankaya, if you do have respect for learning, you may like to watch that too (it gives the formula, but more than that it explains it too)

These are (just Wiki just gave me the link) the part of lectures which became famous (from "Physics for future presidents"). Here is the link from wiki:
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p ... D5B42B2266

Check out, Radioactivity, Radioactivity II, Nukes and other lectures from this course.

One does not need high mathematical background to enjoy these lectures.

It's little dated, 2006 from UC Berkley by Prof Muller. (Prof Muller, among other things, is famous inventing C12-14 radioactive dating method, and at present not only teaches this course (one of the most popular course), also advises US Defense Dept on things related to dirty bombs etc..)

Another, clip worth watching is lesson 8 from this:
http://muller.lbl.gov/teaching/physics10/pffp.html
It is 2 hour video, watch first few minutes ( from 5 minutes and on) and watch more if you get interested... MANY questions raised here, related to understanding of radiation, are being answered there.

Hope you enjoy it... Strongly recommended it.

[chaanakya]

N-reactor builders fret about loss of business

U.S. and European nuclear reactor builders increasingly are concerned about the situation at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant because a prolonged crisis could force countries worldwide to change their policies on nuclear power and eventually deal a heavy blow to their business.

.........................

During talks with Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda in Tokyo, Anne Lauvergeon, chief executive officer of Areva, said she recognized that the problems at the Tokyo Electric Power Co. nuclear plant are not only Japan's but her company's as well. She said Areva would provide maximum support to Japan.

Areva, which has tie-ups with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. and has won many contracts to build nuclear power plants in France, where nuclear power is the primary source of electricity, agreed with Chinese companies in November and December to supply them with uranium. The company also recently signed a deal with India to manufacture nuclear reactors.

Areva has aggressively expanded its business, stepping up marketing efforts to sell its nuclear power plants in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries this year.

However, the business environment changed significantly after the series of accidents at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant. China temporarily suspended new nuclear power plant projects while antinuclear power plant movements had a resurgence in Europe.

The crisis has depressed Areva stock, which dropped 12.8 percent from the 35.95 euros (4,257 yen) posted on March 10, the day before the quake, to 31.35 euros at Wednesday's close in Paris.

With environmental awareness rising, nuclear power plants, which do not emit carbon dioxide, had been again viewed as a clean energy source, and plant construction had been accelerating until just recently.

However, the nuclear power boom seems to be quickly fading in the United States in the wake of the series of accidents at the Fukushima facility.

.................

GE hastily moved to deny liability for the reactors, saying the size of the March 11 earthquake was far larger than the assumptions when they were designed in the 1960s.[/b]

GE's stock has fallen about 7 percent from the 20 dollars (1,670 yen) level seen on March 11.

About 30 nuclear reactors were set to be built by 2030 in the United States, where plant construction had long been frozen after the 1979 Three Mile Island nuclear accident.

However, the U.S. Congress has been cautious about advancing the planned projects, with Sen. Joe Lieberman saying the United States should "put the brakes on" new nuclear power plants.

GE set a target of winning 38 nuclear reactor projects by 2030 while Westinghouse Electric Co., which is a subsidiary of Toshiba Corp., was aiming to win contracts to build 39 reactors by 2015.

Sources close to the companies said their plans would inevitably be delayed due to the March 11 earthquake.

If troubles worsened at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, the companies would be forced to revise their outlook and their financial performance might be seriously affected as a result, observers said.

(Apr. 2, 2011)

[chaanakya]

Disaster legislation 'to nationalize land'

.................

Many tsunami-devastated coastal communities have been largely depopulated and are unlikely to be revived because of the severity of the disaster, the sources said. In addition to the areas laid waste by the tsunami, the ongoing crisis at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant could leave large tracts of land abandoned for a long period of time.

To address the scale of the tragedy, the special legislation will increase the burden the central government must pay to move disaster victims into evacuation shelters. Under the existing disaster relief law, the central government is required to fund three-fourths of the cost, according to the sources. The bigger ratio will ease the burden on local governments, which must pay for a quarter of the costs under the current system.

The legislation will also allow the central government to quickly purchase land made vacant by tsunami. Nationalizing land would facilitate the rebirth of tsunami-hit communities by coordinating reconstruction efforts, the sources said.

The legislative package will also abolish a system that reduces the gasoline tax by about 25 yen per liter when the national average price of regular gas tops 160 yen per liter for three months straight, the sources said. The tax-cut system could reduce government revenue by hundreds of billions of yen per year.

For farmers who have suffered losses due to the Fukushima nuclear crisis, the planned special legislation will provide speedy lump-sum payments before exact compensation amounts are calculated according to the Compensation for Nuclear Damages Law, they said. The legislative package will also enable bans on shipments of radiation-affected crops to be lifted speedily and flexibly when the levels are deemed no threat to human health.

And to help disaster victims rebuild their lives, tax breaks or cuts will be given for home construction and vehicle purchases, the sources said.

Finally, the package will establish a "restoration promotion headquarters" that includes the entire Cabinet as well as a "restoration agency," they said.

(Apr. 2, 2011)

[chaanakya]

Japan working to prevent excessive restrictions on imports abroad

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Foreign Minister Takeaki Matsumoto on Friday said Japan is trying to prevent excessive import restrictions on its products abroad over fears of radiation contamination, following the crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant crippled by the catastrophic March 11 quake and tsunami.

The minister told a press conference that Japan has been collecting information on import restrictions implemented by its trading partners and is working on a plan to issue certificates to identify production areas for both farm and industrial items to allay concerns.

"We will fully inform other countries of the condition of the Fukushima plant and try to prevent excessive reactions or unjust import bans" of Japanese products, Matsumoto said.

The minister said any restrictive measures should be based on international scientific standards and that Japan urged countries such as China to clarify the grounds for stricter inspections of Japan-made products.

[Sanku]

Wonder how much public money would have to be paid for
1) Cleaning up after Fukushima rad.
2) Providing support like Nationalizing land and other such govt support for damages.
3) Picking up tab for TEPCO
4) Managing political fallout nationally.

Shouldnt all this be added to the "ultra-cheep" Nuclear power?

[brihaspati]

Ah! Sanku ji!
Its all peoples' fault onlee! Why do they want so much electricity? Even then it is not so difficult to float a risk bond on this. Insure for the costs. Even if no regular insurer does want to underwrite these "other" costs, at least on some financial market you can value the risk by floating some financial instrument? Since it is conceptually and theoretically possible, it must be possible in reality, and therefore is possible in actuality. Since it is possible in actuality, such risks are all covered in actuality, therefore risks are "costless" in the sense they are all actually monetarily compensated for. Only one must use qualified experts who construct such things on a daily basis to leave sufficient loopholes which can later on be used by claiming that the bonds issued never said that they would actually cover for the risks. This will reduce the risks of the underwriters at least.

Although, those who are most likely to suffer the consequences are also the most likely to be unable to spare the money to buy these bonds and "financial instruments". This means these overwhelming numerical majority are unlikely to be able to manipulate and raise the returns from such bonds, which in turn means that they may not have any control over compensation. Which in turn means they cannot really "price" their own "losses".

So what you cannot "price" monetarily, is actually "priceless", meaning "of no monetary value". Anything that is not quantifiable in monetary terms is of no value, and therefore is not worth discussing.

[chaanakya]

Tepco dumps concrete to plug radiation leak at No. 2
Sea contamination traced to cracked storage pit connected to reactor

Although the pit is small, it contains highly contaminated water with a radioactivity exceeding 1,000 millisieverts per hour that is leaking into the ocean from a 20-cm crack, Tepco said.

The pit, which is 1.2 meters x 1.9 meters and 2 meters deep, is usually used to store cables. But it is also connected directly to the reactor building through a cable trench, raising the possibility that the source of the contaminated water is the reactor itself, a NISA official said.

The cable trench is different from the pipe trench at No. 2, where water with the same level of radioactivity was discovered Monday. Although the two trenches are connected, no water has been found in the cable trench because it is at a higher elevation, the official said.

How much water has leaked and for how long were not known as of Saturday afternoon.

NISA spokesman Hidehiko Nishiyama said Tepco has been told to make sure there are no other leaks near reactor No. 2 and to strengthen is monitoring of seawater.

[abhishek_sharma]

From Far Labs, a Vivid Picture Emerges of Japan Crisis

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/03/scien ... tdown.html

In Setback, Radioactive Water Is Leaking Directly Into Sea, Japan Says

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/03/world ... japan.html

Japan’s Nuclear Disaster Severs Town’s Economic Lifeline, Setting Evacuees Adrift

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/03/world ... utaba.html

[abhishek_sharma]

After Fukushima, Examining Nuclear Power Safety

http://www.cfr.org/japan/after-fukushim ... ety/p24539

[abhishek_sharma]

Bodies of 2 Missing Workers Found at Japanese Nuclear Plant

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/world ... japan.html

[chaanakya]

Indian relief team responds to local needs in tsunami-hit town
By Tomohiro Deguchi and Junko Horiuchi
ONAGAWA, Japan, April 3, Kyodo

From a pile of debris over 10 meters high, the body of Junko Sato was carefully removed by an Indian rescue and relief team Saturday in the tsunami-hit town of Onagawa, Miyagi Prefecture. Her son Yukiyoshi, 38, cried out at the sight of her, ''Sorry, mom, sorry I left you.''

The 46-member National Disaster Response Force from India, which arrived in Japan on March 28 on its first relief operation overseas, has taken charge of the search for people still missing in the town after the March 11 tsunami as well as recovery of bodies and clearing away of debris.

The team's leader, Commandant Alok Avasthy, said that while it was too late for the group to save people's lives, it had many tasks ahead of it. ''After seeing the devastation caused by the earthquake and the tsunami there's still a lot of work to be done,'' he said.

The tsunami following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake reached as far as around a kilometer inland from the port of Onagawa, destroying the center of the town and leaving more than 1,000 people dead or missing out of the town's population of about 10,000.

The team was able to recover 59-year-old Junko's body in the Aratate district after Taichi Watanabe, 26, and three other volunteer interpreters found out that Yukiyoshi had been continuously searching for the bodies of his mother and of his 87-year-old grandfather Keiji Ishimori in the area.

Avasthy, 41, then ordered his men to comb through the pile of debris identified by Yukiyoshi.

Yukiyoshi said his mother's cry for help as she was being washed away by the tsunami still rings in his ears. ''Even if I'm tired and ready to go to sleep, I wake up recalling my mother's cry for help,'' he said. He also pictures her arm reaching out of the water in a desperate attempt to hold on to something, the last sight he had of her alive.

The NDRF was set up in 2005 following the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. The force has 10 battalions around India, each with about 1,000 members. ''As India's presence in the international community has become larger due to its economic growth, it also has begun to be active in international contributions,'' a Japanese government official said.

Inspector Ajay Kumar, a member of the team who spent two and a half months doing relief work in India during the Indian Ocean disaster, said that the Indian team is well trained and is a dedicated force focused on dealing with natural, chemical, nuclear and biological disasters.

''So many devastations came in one moment, it was an unbelievable phenomenon, a mega disaster'' said Kumar, referring to last month's quake and tsunami that have left over 27,000 people dead or missing in northeastern and eastern Japan.

The Indian government has supplied Japan with 25,000 blankets and 13,000 bottles of water, and is one of the 23 countries and regions to have dispatched rescue teams or experts to Japan to help deal with the natural disaster or the nuclear crisis in Fukushima Prefecture, according to the Japanese Foreign Ministry.

The Indian team, which had recovered five bodies as of Saturday, is scheduled to wrap up its relief operation Wednesday.

''I can't express what I am seeing. We underwent training for this...but all the scenes (here) are unique, beyond imagination,'' said Avasthy, who has a 17-year career in the field.

''Japan is a dedicated, disciplined country, sincere country. They have proved (so) previously. I am 100 percent sure (the Japanese people) will make those cities even more beautiful cities, very early, very early, of that I am sure,'' he said.

==Kyodo

[chaanakya]

Restarting cooling systems takes a back seat to storage, disposal

As for the flooded No. 1 turbine building, Tepco was pumping the water into a condenser tank but was forced to transfer it to another vessel after the tank got full. The work reduced the water in the basement from a depth of 40 cm to about 20 cm.

Work to remove contaminated water from reactors 2 and 3, however, has yet to start. The crucial task of restoring electricity for the reactor cooling systems has meanwhile been delayed.

Experts warned that condenser tanks won't be able to hold all the water.


While the government has mulled anchoring tankers by the plant to store the water and building a facility to properly dispose of it, the city of Shizuoka announced Friday it will provide its mega-float, a huge barge, to Tepco for storing the water.

Tepco estimates the vessel can store about 10,000 tons of water, while the amount of water detected in the plant has reached around 13,000 tons.

Misawa said it is highly possible the No. 2 reactor's pressure vessel is damaged, since the water in its turbine building is extremely contaminated, showing surface-level radiation in excess of 1,000 millisieverts per hour.

Radionuclide analysis of that water showed it contains not only volatile iodine-131 and cesium-134, but also the more stable lanthanum-140 and barium-140. All four substances are belie
ved to have come from atomic fission, meaning "some part of the pressure vessel is probably damaged," Misawa said.

But at the same time, the reactor does not appear to be in a dangerous enough state to cause another hydrogen explosion because its temperature is hovering around 180 degrees, he said. Hydrogen only emerges when the temperature rises high enough to start the fuel rods' zirconium casings burning, allowing them to react with the water in the pressure vessel.

Assuming the situation at Fukushima No. 1 is eventually brought under control, the challenge of decommissioning reactor Nos. 1 through 4, which Tepco Chairman Tsuneyoshi Katsumata has said is probably unavoidable, awaits. But decommissioning damaged nuclear power plants is a very lengthy, tricky and expensive project.

Even shutting down a regular nuclear plant requires time and money. At the nation's first nuclear power plant in Tokai, Ibaraki Prefecture, which ended operations in 1998, it took three years just to remove spent fuel rods. Work to complete the process is slated to end in 2020 and cost a total of ¥89 billion, according to some media reports.

Ex-Toshiba engineer Ogawa said that when decommissioning a normal plant there are a limited number of places where the radiation level is high, so even though the work is time-consuming, it can advance according to plan.

But "it is going to be very different in the case of Fukushima," he said, as places that are not supposed to have high levels of radiation have been contaminated, such as the basement floor of the No. 2 turbine building

[chaanakya]

Engineers fail to seal crack leaking radioactive water into sea

TOKYO —
Engineers failed to seal a crack where highly radioactive water was spilling into the Pacific from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant incapacitated by last month’s earthquake-spawned tsunami but said a search of the site found no other leaks Sunday.

Radiation has been spewing from the plant, leaking into the air, ground and sea. On Saturday, authorities discovered a crack from which radioactive water was spilling into the Pacific—the first time they identified a direct source of sea contamination.

A picture released by TEPCO shows water shooting some distance away from a wall and splashing into the sea, though the amount of water was not clear. The contaminated water will quickly dissipate in the ocean but could pose a danger to workers at the plant.

A nuclear plant worker who fell into the ocean Friday while trying to board a barge carrying water to help cool the plant did not show any immediate signs of being exposed to unsafe levels of radiation, nuclear safety officials said Saturday, but they were waiting for test results to be sure.

Workers have been reluctant to talk to the media about what they are experiencing, but one who spent several days at the plant described difficult conditions in an anonymous interview published Saturday in the national Mainichi newspaper.

When he was called in mid-March to help restore power at the plant, he said he did not tell his family because he didn’t want them to worry. But he did tell a friend to notify his parents if he did not return in two weeks.

“I feel very strongly that there is nobody but us to do this job, and we cannot go home until we finish the work,” he said.

Early on, the company ran out of full radiation suits, forcing workers to create improvised versions of items such as nylon booties they were supposed to pull over their shoes.

[chaanakya]

Miyako City hit by 37.9-meter tsunami on March 11

Japanese scientists say that a tsunami nearly 38 meters high hit a coastal city in Iwate Prefecture after the earthquake on March 11th.

University of Tokyo Associate Professor Yoshinobu Tsuji and his team conducted a survey of tsunami damage in the Taro district of Miyako City.

They found that the tsunami reached a height of 37.9 meters about 200 meters inland.

This is the highest tsunami to be triggered by the March 11th earthquake. Japan's largest tsunami of 38.2 meters struck another coastal city in the same prefecture in 1896.

Tsuji said the tsunami was as massive as the one that occurred more than a century ago, and the waves may have been even bigger at other locations. He added that he wants to work with other researchers to carry out similar surveys.
Sunday, April 03, 2011 19:12 +0900 (JST)

[Amber G.]

Bodies of 2 Missing Workers Found at Japanese Nuclear Plant

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/world ... japan.html

Just to note that, these workers were missing since the terrible earthquake, and "nuclear" had not much to do with their sad death.
There was an old post here:
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... e#p1053725

We just do not know how many people died in Nuke related incident, or will die..

I don't know who is "we" here.. If you read the source Chaanayka gave one KNOWS that the number is 850,000 due to one accident alone.
For TMI I have heard all sort of numbers...Official numbers are 0.

Tepco web site has this:

Two Tepco employees have minor injuries.
Two contractors were injured when the quake struck and were taken to hospital, one suffering two broken legs.
A Tepco worker was taken to hospital after collapsing and experiencing chest pains.
A subcontract worker at an "important earthquake-proof building" was found unconscious and was taken to hospital.
Two Tepco workers felt ill whilst working in the control rooms of Fukushima Daiichi units 1 and 2 and were taken to the medical centre at Fukushima Daini.
Four workers were injured in the hydrogen explosion at Fukushima Daiichi 1. They were all taken to hospital.
Eleven workers (four Tepco workers, three subcontract workers and four members of Self Defence Force) were hurt following a similar explosion at Fukushima Daiichi 3. They were transferred to the Fukushima Daini plant. One of the Tepco employees, complaining of pain in his side, was later transferred to hospital.
The whereabouts of two Tepco workers, who had been in the turbine building of Fukushima Daiichi unit 4, is unknown.
Only one casualty has been reported at the Fukushima Daini plant. A worker in the crane operating console of the exhaust stack was seriously injured when the earthquake struck. He subsequently died.

[GuruPrabhu]

Here is something that has been bothering me. During the debate following the Indian Ocean tsunami, I heard so often that "if only we had an advanced tsunami warning system in place, like Japan has, we would not have been hit so badly".

In this hysteria over the nuke industry, I haven't seen much about why this "advanced tsunami warning system" failed to warn the people. Heck, there were entire trains washed away -- why were trains running when a tsunami was coming? Or, did this "advanced system" not have a clue that the EQ was a massive 9.0 and hence the tsunami was likely to be massive as well?

Perhaps I know the answer. By focusing all the debate on nuke power, the experts are avoiding the debate on the failure of the warning system

[Bade]

GuruP, the answer you seek for the success of a Tsunami warning system is a complicated function of (nature of the earthquake, distance to epicenter, population density of target area, local topography which can impede or help save lives heading to higher ground, depending on how easy it is in any given location to escape Tsunami run-ups, local height of the waves which itself is a complicated function of many things, age/agility of the population to respond in a timely fashion, etc etc. )

Well in this particular instance, the warning was issued from all available records. Whether the quantitative prediction of run-ups in the warning issued, match with what was observed is not clear yet for all locations. Well in the end, once the warning is heard only thing left is to run to the nearest highest point that one can run. Old folks stand very little chance to survive. Shorter the lead time of the warning, worse the success rate of the system.

[vina]

"if only we had an advanced tsunami warning system in place, like Japan has, we would not have been hit so badly".

Japan would have had around half an hour warning at best or a few minutes at best.

India will have around 3.5hrs warning in the worst case, more than enough to send out the warning to everyone to move out of the beaches and move to higher ground.

Atleast, the tens of people who perished in Marina beach in Chennai could have easily moved to the beach road and they would have been fine.

[GuruPrabhu]

Well in this particular instance, the warning was issued from all available records. Whether the quantitative prediction of run-ups in the warning issued, match with what was observed is not clear yet for all locations. Well in the end, once the warning is heard only thing left is to run to the nearest highest point that one can run. Old folks stand very little chance to survive. Shorter the lead time of the warning, worse the success rate of the system.

That is the question. What king of warning was issued? Was it a "chalta hai" type, or "get your ass to higher ground NOW" kind of warning? I don't know, but I was impressed to learn that there were trains running on tracks along the coast! 30 mins is plenty of time even for older folks to have a chance of survival.

I am just impressed that there is no hysterical media pounding of Japan over a failed warning system (failed as in thousands died). The focus is on nuke reactor where zero have died.

[Sanku]

Its good to stay on top of real events and real news.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5% ... nd_tsunami

One minute before the earthquake was felt in Tokyo, the Earthquake Early Warning system, which includes more than 1,000 seismometers in Japan, sent out warnings of impending strong shaking to millions. The early warning is believed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) to have saved many lives.[34][35]
.....................

The tsunami warning issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency was the most serious on its warning scale; it rated as a "major tsunami", being at least 3 m (9.8 ft) high.[64] The actual height predicted varied, the greatest being for Miyagi at 10 m (33 ft) high.[65] The tsunami inundated a total area of approximately 470 km² in Japan.[66]

The earthquake took place at 14:46 JST around 67 km (42 mi) from the nearest point on Japan's coastline, and initial estimates indicated the tsunami would have taken 10 to 30 minutes to reach the areas first affected, and then areas further north and south based on the geography of the coastline.[67][68] Just over an hour after the earthquake at 15:55 JST, a tsunami was observed flooding Sendai Airport, which is located near the coast of Miyagi Prefecture,[69][70

==========================

Meanwhile expect to hear the following more and more as "2-week lag from press information to bitter acceptance by authorities" cycle continues to pour more information into public space.

http://seetell.jp/2011/03/tepco-dismiss ... s-defense/

In planning their defense against a killer tsunami, the people running Japan’s now-hobbled nuclear power plant dismissed important scientific evidence and all but disregarded 3,000 years of geological history, an Associated Press investigation shows.

[Lalmohan]

japanese towns and villages do have warning systems, from a programme i saw, it suggested that mostly older people living on their own didn't evacuate promptly. videos show many people watching the tsunami on high ground watching the wave come in. i am sure that it was a mix of issues that led to the casualties, not just one thing. one drawback of an aging society. One good thing, most children were at school, and most schools have highly drilled evacuation procedures, so most of the children were saved

on wave height (from the same programme, quoting a hydrology prof from oregon univ.):
once a wave of a few meters hits a town, the water seeks the path of least resistance, and channels up streets. by doing so, the 'height' and speed of the water dramatically increases as it is forced into a narrow space. this is why a 10m wave on the sea shore ends up depositing cars on rooftops 20-30-40 meters high. a true 38m tsunami hitting the shore is different to the water level reaching 38m in a surge in a confined space.

Vinaji
thanks for correcting my orificial error! I knew even as I was typing that I was probably making a mistake. Memory said circular, logic said square. I let memory triumph over logic. And i didn't have time to check wiki

Shivji
the analogy is important. engineering through history has never progressed unless there have been disasters from which to learn from. even something as 'simple' as bridges. we have known since ancient times that bridges collapse due to resonance from regular cyclical loads (e.g. marching soldiers), yet even in modern times we end up building bridges that resonate dangerously. there are always new conditions that emerge that were not thought of previously. perhaps another example might be blood transfusions before blood types were understood?

All that said, the nuclear industry will definitely have to review its safety systems and procedures - and plant design will have to evolve into more fail-safe types. Of all the things I have read over the past few weeks, the issue of managing spent fuel rods worries me the most - and yet, the amount of heat coming off these things that we dissipate also makes me think that there is more research to be done to extract useful work out of the spent fuel heat

the indications from fukushima are that its the spent fuel rods which have probably caused the most contamination - but i await the formal inquest.

[arnab]

==========================

Meanwhile expect to hear the following more and more as "2-week lag from press information to bitter acceptance by authorities" cycle continues to pour more information into public space.

http://seetell.jp/2011/03/tepco-dismiss ... s-defense/

In planning their defense against a killer tsunami, the people running Japan’s now-hobbled nuclear power plant dismissed important scientific evidence and all but disregarded 3,000 years of geological history, an Associated Press investigation shows.

The 'important' scientific evidence was a academic paper published in a journal (amazing isn't it about which experts to believe and which to ignore? ) which claimed that it was possible that 2 huge tsunamis hit the region in the past. One possibly occured around a 1000 years ago and the other was probably 3000 years ago. But of course the authors also claimed that their estimation couldn't be reliable because the methodologies were..well..unreliable. Now this was the evidence that the Associated Press is arguing that TEPCO ignored and ought to have considered

Added later: I suggest the movie '2012' be considered an important scientific study and safety from such events should be the level of risk compliance when setting up any future nuke power plants.

[GuruPrabhu]

The early warning is believed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) to have saved many lives.

Clearly, JMA speaking on behalf of JMA has a huge conflict. We should have an international team of 100 independent experts to verify such self-serving claims. Who is the watchdog agency on top this JMA which is a potential suspect in the murder of more than 10k people?

Had they studied the 3000 history of tsunamis and tagged this one as a 38m tsunami? If not, why not? Who regulates this tsunami height setting procedure in the warning system?

[Singha]

imo any change of japan emerging from its decades long economic slump is gone with this disaster and its aftereffects, on TV I hardly see any young people - just hordes of old people trying to pick the pieces up.

japan will sink into a second rate military power as naturally the costs of reconstruction will balloon up and japan has a democratic govt who must answer to its people. funding cuts are likely across all govt support and might drive more of high level manpower to look elsewhere for work - perhaps korea, china, singapore, taiwan, HK and america/canada.

in a pressure cooker type of society with many things left unsaid....more people will implode quietly?

[somnath]

imo any change of japan emerging from its decades long economic slump is gone with this disaster and its aftereffects, on TV I hardly see any young people - just hordes of old people trying to pick the pieces up.

Singha-ji, not sure about that...Disasters like this - and really the big disaster is the tsunami, not Fukushima - can act as Keynesian boosters to economies...And the scale of destriuction means that Japan will need to invest a lot of money, in the trillions of dollars....Which might be good at the margin for its economy - certainly most of the market seems to think likewise for now...

[Singha]

chinese style infra spends?

with the ranks of young growing less and legions of older people, can they sustain a consumerist society...?

[somnath]

^^Structural issues with Japan's economy is a different question altogether...But large reconstruction spends should have a Keynesian impact - the impact is on "I" and "G", not "C" in the Y=C+I+G equation...

[Lalmohan]

singha-ji
the reconstruction is mostly going to come from privately held funds. this will not impact the tax payer overmuch. if you look at japanese stocks, except for TEPCO, all have bounced back to their pre-crash levels and the ratings have become more +ve. there have been almost no impacts on the global supply chain out of and into japan, and no repatriation of japanese funds from overseas back to the homeland. most of the insurance burden was on smaller local insurers with limited exposure to the global players. all in all the impact on the japanese economy at a macro level has been minimal

also, japanese law and the governments actions suggest that tepco will be supported financially through the clean up and its aftermath, so as far as the global money markets are concerned - this has no adverse effect on the japanese economy as a whole

on the other hand, at the village level in the affected areas, the pain will be quite substantial

[Sanku]

Singha-ji; I agree, in addition the Nuclear fallout specially targets the young, and the current devastation is a double whammy, with Tsunami's related destruction being particularly hard on the older folks, and the Nuclear issues going to be a chain around the neck for young & future Japanese.

The demographic impact will make the conditions post USSR collapse seem like picnic in comparison. Maybe 20 years hence a +ve resurgence could be seen, but that is already too far too look into.

[Sanku]

The early warning is believed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) to have saved many lives.

Clearly, JMA speaking on behalf of JMA has a huge conflict. We should have an international team of 100 independent experts to verify such self-serving claims. Who is the watchdog agency on top this JMA which is a potential suspect in the murder of more than 10k people?

Had they studied the 3000 history of tsunamis and tagged this one as a 38m tsunami? If not, why not? Who regulates this tsunami height setting procedure in the warning system?

JMA did tag Tsunami's and were expecting a large Tsunami. In that sense they do have a conflict of interest in large Tsunami's and funding being assured for Tsunami studies.

But I can quite confidently state that JMA and Tsunami's have ZERO chance of colluding, (unlike nuclear regulator and producer) I think anyone with a remote amount of vestigial residual intelligence can also see this. But I am not sure about the "experts" they may think that chances of the Sea and JMA colluding are about the same as TEPCO and Japanese regulators colluding. After all their calculations say so.

[Sanku]

So what you cannot "price" monetarily, is actually "priceless", meaning "of no monetary value". Anything that is not quantifiable in monetary terms is of no value, and therefore is not worth discussing.

We really really do need a hat-tip emoticon.

=================

Meanwhile in the continuing tragedy (or should it be called a farce now?)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110404/wl ... 0404084140

Japan to dump 11,500 tons of radioactive water at sea

A spokesman for Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) said the water that the company intends to release into the Pacific is only weakly radioactive and has to be cleared out to make room for more radioactive waste water.

[Lalmohan]

every dog has its day
NHK

Rescued drifting dog reunited with owner

A dog rescued while drifting off the tsunami-stricken coast of Miyagi has been reunited with its owner more than 3 weeks after the disaster.

A Japan Coast Guard helicopter spotted the dog on the roof of a wrecked house floating about 1.8 kilometers offshore from Kesennuma City on Friday.

After being saved, the 2-year-old female was taken to an animal center in Tomiya Town, Miyagi Prefecture.

On Monday, the dog's owner --- a woman in her 50s from Kesennuma --- came to the center to pick up her pet.

She had spotted the animal on Friday's NHK news broadcast, and knew from its brown collar that it was probably her dog.

The owner says the dog, named "Ban," had been missing since the disaster damaged their home.

Ban greeting her owner with joy, jumping and wagging her tail.

The care center says the dog was doing well, but that it sometimes left its meals unfinished.

Monday, April 04, 2011 17:58 +0900 (JST)

Top Stories World Politics & Business Society & Others

[GuruPrabhu]

I think anyone with a remote amount of vestigial residual intelligence can also see this. But I am not sure about the "experts" they may think that chances of the Sea and JMA colluding are about the same as TEPCO and Japanese regulators colluding.

yes, saar, Sanku saar, your "remote vestigial intelligence" and your "real life credentials" has all the SDRE nuke lobby shaking in their dhotis. We all agree that TEPCO is in collusion with tsunami and uranium nuclei. It is best if you keep your gyaan to yourself. Not everyone can handle such a giant dose of gyaan all at once.

[Mods, I will declare a unilateral moratorium on sanku's flamebaits.]

[Theo_Fidel]

My question is that the Indonesian Tsunami of 30m+ occurred in 2004. How come the Japanese did not pick up on this, knowing that a similar subduction zone runs past them. In the US for instance the entire Pacific North west re-did their Tsunami evacuation plans. Schools once thought safe have been marked for closure, new higher elevation safe zones plotted, entire towns have been evacuated in drills including removing the elderly.

Yet Fukushima remained with its 5.8m Tsunami barrier. 5.8 m is very minimal. Even ocean waves in certain areas exceed this. If Kalpakkam had had a 5.8 m barrier rather that 10m it too would have been swamped.

As far as fatalities, note that roughly 5 Seiverts of exposure is thought to cause a mid-term fatality. Those poor workers in the basement each got at least 3-4 Sieverts. One maybe two of them are the walking dead. They just don't know it yet. The cumulative exposure of all the workers will tell us how many will die. Similar numbers from the general population will tell us what the fatality rate long term is though there is some debate on how far to take the low level radiation limits.

It is this exposure of huge numbers of general population that can cause the most fatalities. We have been very very lucky that Fukushima was so remote. Many of Japans reactors are right in the middle or next to huge cities and towns. As I have said before, we in India will not have this luxury. There are roughly 4 million people within 25 km of Koodankulam for instance. And this is a relatively empty part of India. One more thing, mid to upper levels winds around here, near Koodanakulam, tend to run from East to West. Any volatiles that get up there would be spread all over Kerala. With particular focus around the TVM area.

[Lalmohan]

theo-ji, i haven't seen anything saying anyone got 3-4 sieverts of exposure, can you please point me to the source. (am not doubting, just want to read more)

[GuruPrabhu]

Those poor workers in the basement each got at least 3-4 Sieverts. One maybe two of them are the walking dead. They just don't know it yet.

I am also not doubting the 3-4 Sv figure. However, you claim that they are "walking dead" and they don't know it, but you do. So, could you please put a percent probability on this prognosis of death? There was a very simple chart posted here a few pages ago.

[Sanku]

My question is that the Indonesian Tsunami of 30m+ occurred in 2004. How come the Japanese did not pick up on this, knowing that a similar subduction zone runs past them.

Theo-ji, the Japanese very certainly did, their own experts carried out studies and concluded that many Japanese plants suffer from great danger.

However they were overlooked, leading to resignations of the people involved in protest over neglect of safety issues.

These have been posted before.

[Amber G.]

theo-ji, i haven't seen anything saying anyone got 3-4 sieverts of exposure, can you please point me to the source. (am not doubting, just want to read more)

Lalmohan - The reason you haven't seen anyone got "3-4 sievert" of exposure is simply that it has not happened. Some (about 20) have gotten above 100 Millisievert None more than 250 mSv. (Limit, Japan has set for emergency)

The reports of 3-4 sievert and "walking dead" has as much credibility as 100000000000 troops in Cashemere.. This information is privi to postors like Sanku and Chaankaya. After all aren't such people, still claim that millions died from TMI, yet nuke-lobby misleads the people and say that number is zero.

(For scientifically challenged people, millisievert is thousandth of a sievert (Think of this way, height of a person is 1-2 meter, while an ant is 1-2 millimeter)

I know it will be virtually impossible to teach even the most basic physics and math to some, but for others let me put in layman's term what people mean by NTLH theory. And how the risk is accessed in scientific world. Keep reading if interested. Stop here, if not /smile/

In nut shell the number is something like:
25Sv (whole body dose) = 1cancer death (in life time)

And they assume there is no threshold, and radiation, no matter how low, is dangerous (in a linear way as far as cancer probability is concerned)

From this one gets

250 mSv (same is 25 Sv spread over 100 people) ==> 1% (increased risk of cancer)

By all accounts it is serious. One may not worry about about extra 1% from personal perspective ( as normal risk for a cancer(+ bad immune system etc), from other causes, is about 20% over the lifespan ) . (Risk for a Javan in a war is much higher, yet we take that risk) but this translates to 10,000 deaths, in a million. So one does take it seriously.

These kind of numbers for higher doses (say above 100 mSv) is fairly understood (more than 50+ years of research, data etc), for lower radiation doses, most experts I know, do not subscribe to NTLH.

I will stop here, as discussion will become more technical. I have tried to be as accurate as possible, yet keep it simple. There are, of course, many places, where one can get further information.

[Amber G.]

^^^ I do have one request, please do understand that I have used the term "whole body dose" and not used "annual dose".. I say this only because, Chaanakya , incredibly insist on misquoting me as he has done, again and again, in the past, for example:

Safe annual radiation absorbed limit in mSv is 1000 mSv as repeatedly dinned to brf members

Here is original post about 1000 mSV
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... v#p1054997

Please read is carefully..(I have even emphasized the whole body part, and no "annul" appears there .. and see, if it was "dined to brf members")

Yet it did not prevent him to add "annual", not to mention, highly dishonest and misleading characterization such as "dined to brf members"
and then instead of correcting himself, proceeded to post.. well his usual quality posts.