Bharat Rakshak

MohdKav wrote: Then you have serious comprehension skills. I dont care about cash or otherwise. My transactions are white. Easy availability of credit,
Have you ever taken a project loan ? Or a Overdraft ? Or a working capital loan ? Do you know how they value the property ( its a joke in itself ), Do you know about the paper work and conditions on it ? Do you know about the time taken to pass it ? Do you know that some paper work asked by the bank literally dont exist in some sectors?

Yes running business is tough in India., but it is not as bad as you make out to be. Lot of successful businesses running and yes several of us have been through what you described above or worse.

But then what you are doing so far is just whining. Unbridled whining. An entire page from this thread can be thrown out (mostly with your posts) since they do not contain any new information other than whining.

Not sure why you are indulged!

Modi - live.

praksam wrote:Majority of the hoarders of BM are Babus,Netas,Doctors,Advocates etc.

Exactly and they have been wiped clean. Businesses will get back roaring as soon as GST is implemented. Prime problem of businesses is not the BM - it is the hassles with layers of silly taxes that create the entire bribery network and set businesses back.

praksam wrote:majority of the posters are sitting abroad in their cushy offices and are chest thumping about this and 90% from IT.
get down and walk in the streets or go to the downtown of each cities in India,where most of the brick and mortar shops are there and see the business shattered.Do you think these businesses will be able to get back to their feet soon.Not a chance.Many will go under and the chain reaction will be felt later.
Majority of the hoarders of BM are Babus,Netas,Doctors,Advocates etc.

Please correct me if I have misunderstood, but there is a contradiction in your statement of the majority of hoarders are "Babus,Netas,Doctors,Advocates etc" why would the brick and mortar shop businesses "get shattered"? Could it be because the Black Money hoarders are the ones giving business to these brick and mortar businesses?

Of course this could be true. I have changed from car to public transport over the lat 6 months. In BLr there is a road (BVK Iyengar road) where a large number of businesses sell lights - bulbs, tubes LEDs, fittings etc. Whenever I have visited such shops (usually to get a nonstandard bulb replaced) the owners do not really pay much attention to me because their business in lakhs comes from builders of new houses. And guess what funds new houses - black money to a great extent. So yes - these businesses will take a hit. That road has been quiet since the demonetization

One of the things I noticed about the UK compared with India - particularly Bengaluru is the difference in the type of high street shops. In the UK shops selling fancy taps and shower fittings, tiles, lights and bulbs and jewellery rarely appear on high streets. But in India this is what people buy. Indian shopping districts are somewhat more boring to me ( I prefer DIY/shooting/electronics stuff) Property and houses are a huge money spinner. many of these businesses are going to take a big hit.

But we forget the last bunch of businesses that took a hit - literally months ago - plastic bags/cups/plates etc. Plastic bans have hit hard and are generating a new economy in biodegradable stuff. But this has no connection with demonetization.

But eateries will survive as will clothing. Education will become cheaper on the whole but more expensive for the individual to the extent that black money was subsidizing others. Already even street vendors have taken up home delivery and orders by phone. Payment by phone will take off. More people will have to shift to cheques and e-payment.

SaraLax: GoI has no plan to replace all the Rs.500/1000 notes out there with a float of equal value. About half that float was part of the black economy, and it makes no sense to restore the float. They are pushing a move to cashless transactions, such that there's no need for such a large float of cash.

He's doing his thing , but is more emotional than usual

Asks for 50 days until Dec 31. Gives out warnings. Sympathizes with hardship. Cracks a few jokes on notes on ganga. Says scamsters made crores but have to stand in line for 4k now.

praksam wrote:Majority of the hoarders of BM are Babus,Netas,Doctors,Advocates etc.

Here is a simpler way to understand what has happened.

pankajs wrote:So Instead of conducting individual raids on Jewellers/Builders/Traders/Industralist/Businessman/Docors/lawyers/CAs/Gov. Servants/Income tax officers/Exercise tax officers/Custom officers/ ityadi.... GOI did one MASSIVE raid and CONFISCATED all the cash and handed them *chits* noting how much was seized. All have been asked to come to the bank with ID proof and source of income proof and collect their cash.
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After march 2017, whatever money backing the chits are not redeemed is money that the GOI can use however it sees fit. Think of it as a tax on the black money hoarders @ 100% rate.

I am currently holding about Rs 15,000 worth of old *chits *(of 500) but actually ALL my money been seized by GOI as of midnight 8th Nov and to get it back I have to cycle it through a bank. Whatever *chits* I do not redeem by Dec 30 I have in-effect transfered to GOI's account.

The same applies for all the cash accumulated by babus/netas/doctors/Income tax officers/Customs officers/arms dealers/maoists/terror financiers/bhaiwood/etc.

Some humour might lighten up folks :

Sir , how far away is the bank ?

Man : Its 2 km away

Can I get an auto to get there ?

No need , just stand behind me in the line

Suraj wrote:SaraLax: GoI has no plan to replace all the Rs.500/1000 notes out there with a float of equal value. About half that float was part of the black economy, and it makes no sense to restore the float. They are pushing a move to cashless transactions, such that there's no need for such a large float of cash.

I agree to what you say but it will take more years for rural folks & small businesses to come to digital transactions based economy like how it has happened in urban areas. It is only now that some unfortunate citizens in some rural portions of the country are getting bank accounts opened for themselves and some villages are getting electricity connections.

Modi ends it strong and emotional. Crowd standing and applauding. Implores again for helping him for 50 days

Pls link vid.

On Modi, it was expected after all the opposition, to get a handle on their money, are trying to incite mangos.

Asking for help by a PM is a very powerful pull at our human conditioning.

The explosion of gold and jewellery outlets in BLR over the last decade is astounding. And boring. they have the snazziest shops - but do not interest me in the least bit. Give me a DIY tool shop any day. Or even a hi quality toy store. Jewellery has been a huge sink for black money.

Oddly the mango man whom people are lamenting about saying that businesses and lives are getting shattered are reaching a stage when it is unsafe to wear real gold on the street. "Chain snatching" where a gang of 2 men on a motorbike simply grab a necklace and escape is rampant. Some of these guys live outside Bangalore and a few have been caught taking a flight back to their home towns in some other state.

Most women cannot wear expensive jewellery in public. Jewellery is reserved for special occasions and people with the most expensive jewellery are also the people who arrive at functions in cars and wear them only for weddings or other functions where the women proceed to make other women jealous or angry

But if you look at the hoardings in Bangalore - the huge ones - the main adverts are for property and jewellery. Getting a dwelling place in Bangalore for less than a crore is difficult (not impossible) but remember that most Indians and most Bengalureans earn less than 2,40,000 a year. Most people do not see a crore pass though their hands in a lifetime.

BLR also had the reputation of hosting something like 20% of all engineering students in the country. It has more medical seats than most cities in the world. People tell me that costs go up when there is a shortage and costs come down if there is a glut. Not with college seats. Seats are sold for tens of lakhs - usually paid in black money from Andhra, Bihar, UP, Punjab, Bengal, MP. No wonder societies that start medical colleges are flush with (black) money. And don;t forget the dental colleges. And nursing colleges and Pharmacy colleges.

There is a LOT of money about and much of that money is black money or stuff acquired with black money. And a huge segment of the economy has lived off the fallout of that black money - expensive property ancillaries (tiles/flooring/bathrooms/kitchens/lights), private houses rented out to student children of rich out-of-state parents. These must take a hit. If they don't the entire exercise will have failed. It represents a huge section of the money but only a small fraction of the population, most of whom who live in houses smaller than bathrooms of swanky apts and who earn less in a year than the price of one piece of wedding jewellery.

Suraj wrote:

JayS wrote:But if banks track each and every old note deposited/exchanged then one cannot claim he deposited new money second time, because the money that he actually deposited was old currency and is marked already under his name. Yes, if the banks are not marking the old notes deposited in own bank accounts than one can make claims that he deposited new currency and get away. Since I am yet to go to bank and deposit the 2k worth old notes we have I don't know what banks are doing exactly.

More data for them to note down . Throughout is important. There's absurd amounts of cash suddenly flowing into the banking system. It looks like the early estimates for deposits will be exceeded by quite some margin . This system is not sophisticated enough to manage this throughout so efficiently . Therefore the smarty thing to do is to simply not generate the same denomination at all , so that roundtripping literally isn't possible and all the information that's needed quickly is number of notes and face value .

Agree 400%. Rs. 2000 note was a master stroke on many levels. I just wanted to get the doubt cleared at theoretical level.

My wishlist from GOI after this:

- No re-introduction of Rs. 1000 notes
- take out these new 2000/500 notes as well gradually
- increase supply of 100/50 notes - basically throttle the hard cash and force people to go for cashless payments
- Put max limit of cash-based transactions
- Put max limit on amount of cash that can be held legally for whatever reasons - may not be absolute limit but could be in proportion to the declared turn-over by the entity/person
- Better facilities for cash-less system - mandatory flat-rate on transaction irrespective of cash - should be same as NEFT at the max, but ideally very small amount like 50paise/transaction. Subsidized POS machines - just like GOI ran a program for LED, they can run it for cashless payment systems. Let pvt companies pitch in and do their bit.
- boost to liquidity in medium to long term through ways such as rate cuts, easier loan terms especially for MSMEs, tax-breaks for sectors which will take hit in short to medium term due to less spending by BM holders
- digitizing gold and RE sectors.
- Most importantly crack-down on corruption in government machinary - the babus need to feel the heat.


Would just like to make a shoot and scoot comment looking at the discussion here - Looks like we are getting into the debate of Good BM and bad BM a la good terrorism and bad terrorism. BM in any form is bad and should be taken down no matter what is the price. For terrorism we pay price by blood of our soldiers. For BM, the price is far less. And I daresay BM is far worse for our Nation than Terrorism. One group or the other will always get hit while changing the system. Whining is unacceptable. You better change your ways because India is changing.

Apart from Mudra bank loans, you also have loans from psb and private which come under priority sector lending targets. This year, it was rejigged to include social infrastructure and renewable energy under it. Further info -

https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&rct=j ... lxH7W5J5FQ

Since the deposit base has increased, total absolute credit to psl sectors will also increase.

And to deal with the issue of banks not passing the rbi rate cuts to the customers, base rate system has been replaced with MCLR this year. It will be revised on monthly basis.

Modi's genius is anti-Christian & anti-minority, this is going to be next accusation to be flung in his direction:

here's how: We need 50 days to stabilize currency situation.

Currency demonitisation emergency, started on Nov 8.

Calculating 50 days from Nov 8 falls bang into holiday territory and Christmas season on Dec 28.

Christmas is Dec 25.

Last year Smt Irani's stunt that everyone should gather on Christmas day to have face-to-face with Modi on Dec 25.

this year, the Christmas season is going to come inbetween currency emergency.

he did not start this exercise before Diwali, he started this after Diwali, because Diwali is only festival all Indians should celebrate.

but BJP govt will continue with such insensitivity next year also.

You really think this is how they are gonna come at him this time under the headline of 'intolerance'?

When security issues could not shake his gov, such non topics certainly won't.

^^ Diwali is the season small traders make money for the whole year. It would be foolish to disturb the business. Christmas is not big business period. It is mainly holiday season for hotels and tourism. Delaying this decision further will coincide with exams.. a big no no. Then hot summer. Asking people to stand in the queue in hot summer is big no no. Then mansoon... again the same. So the period post major festival seasons is the best.

Rate cuts are easier to perform now, because they actually have an effect. With a huge black economy, rate cuts did not transmit easily, since RBI's efforts to increase or decrease cost of money, or liquidity, did not have a significant effect. Now they do.

Yes, the timing of this exercise is clearly thought out. Best to do it in the less hotter but dry season after the major festivals but before year end. In 2-3 weeks there should be far more stability and less rush at ATMs.

I am surprised that folks expect *tight* currency situation to continue till Christmas! I expect most of it to be resolved by then and *daily(daal/chawal)* business to be back to normal.

pankajs wrote:Pls link vid.

On Modi, it was expected after all the opposition, to get a handle on their money, are trying to incite mangos.

Asking for help by a PM is a very powerful pull at our human conditioning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95H7VEQIwyY

^^
Thanks saar

pankajs wrote:I am surprised that folks expect *tight* currency situation to continue till Christmas! I expect most of it to be resolved by then and *daily(daal/chawal)* business to be back to normal.

Given the human nature I am expecting massive rush in last couple of weeks of Dec. I am also expecting last moment deadline extension by the gov.

Modi appeals to Nation: bear with currency shortage for 50 days

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... y-4372814/

Saying that he feels the pain of the common man effected by demonetisation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday, in an emotional appeal, urged the “honest” people of the country to bear with the temporary hardships for another 50 days. “If I commit any mistake, I am ready to face any punishment the country will give me. But I promise to deliver a corruption-free India,” PM Modi said.

pankajs wrote:I am surprised that folks expect *tight* currency situation to continue till Christmas! I expect most of it to be resolved by then and *daily(daal/chawal)* business to be back to normal.

If by then daily markets are NOT back to near normal most folks will be very upset.

If there's one thing this exercise will probably result in, people will listen to Modi when he says something. If you read his statements, he makes it clear he will do something. He may not tell you what and when, but it'll happen. When he warns, it's better to heed him than to dismiss him.

'life will find a way' ..similarly

Trade will find a way. Trick is in guiding, pushing, incentivizing , prodding etc towards white

pankajs wrote:

pankajs wrote:I am surprised that folks expect *tight* currency situation to continue till Christmas! I expect most of it to be resolved by then and *daily(daal/chawal)* business to be back to normal.

If by then daily markets are NOT back to near normal most folks will be very upset.

It will get better gradually. Every day a trickle of money is entering circulation - every day more than the day before.

That i what I expect hakim saab. While there may not be enough currency to buy an apartment in an all cash deal there will be enough to allow folks to celebrate festivals in a grand way as usual.

pankajs wrote:Pls link vid.

On Modi, it was expected after all the opposition, to get a handle on their money, are trying to incite mangos.

Asking for help by a PM is a very powerful pull at our human conditioning.

Sorry, I was watching on TV. Most channels carried it. Most channels also have live feed online.

This also solved the bank capitalization problem.

Dear Bharatgas customer, for convenient refill booking and cashless payment, register on my.ebharatgas.com and book your refill with online payment option.

..
Message from my gas supplier just now.

I am waiting to see if there is price movement in RE. Always wondered who is buying those inferior quality 1 cr plus apts in country with <2000 dollars per capita income. Some experts are saying BM in RE is really in the secondary market e..g. in NCR it is 40% BM. Land prices are crazy. Someone bought less than 4 cottahs for 60 lakhs. Will this change? Need to see.

MohdKav wrote: Banks are liquid, they remain still tough to get credit and cumbersome
Black money is gone, the babu's are in vengence mood to get it back
Black money is gone , but running a business is still a complicated mess and highly regulated.

Mohd - I am unsure what your grief is. You seem to be moving the goal posts all the time.

First you say, noone has black money and there will be no demand, then you say there is no liquidity..

Can you succinctly - in one line (not sentence) state what it is that has changed on a fundamental level? I genuinely want to understand and respond through discussion

Seems like most who post in here think that all of cash economy is black money. Its simply not, the access to banking and other financial channels is almost NIL in villages and B-Town cities. Pray how will they go cashless. Most transactions in village level is done in cash, and selling of agriculture land or house is 90% cash. They might get a patta from VOA, but its not much big deal, the land is their forefathers anyway.

And most city slickers think that village transactions is low volume, its quite the opposite, typically agriculture lands near good water sources have prices between 20-25 lacs per acer. When these exchange hands, its completely via Cash.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 364091.cms

98% of the transactions are cash, of this even if we assume 50% is BM transaction, the rest 50% is genuine cash transaction between parties for various reasons like non-availability of easy banking channels, literacy etc.

http://www.bloombergquint.com/business/ ... y-in-india

This move is pretty draconian(hate to agree with Mamata didi on this) , affecting 80% of the cash transactions in villages and b-towns, as one poster mildly put "you are collateral damage" to just normal honest people who live out side the banking channels.

Oh wait for the more bad news from villages and other towns be reported once the shit hit the fans.

GoI should ensure that convenience fee is eliminated on card transactions. Never understood how these fees are absent (or may be just hidden from consumers view) in Massa and in India, consumers have to bear the burden. Also encourage cashless transactions. Even cr@ptel centers don't accept cards for currency recharge. At least in my part of BLR, there are 3 Airtel centers and one of them is like a semi-HQ and onlee they accept card payments for all kinds. Also, certain superstores like Heritage etc., only accept cards on transactions above 100 bucks.

JohnTitor wrote:

MohdKav wrote: Banks are liquid, they remain still tough to get credit and cumbersome
Black money is gone, the babu's are in vengence mood to get it back
Black money is gone , but running a business is still a complicated mess and highly regulated.

Mohd - I am unsure what your grief is. You seem to be moving the goal posts all the time.

First you say, noone has black money and there will be no demand, then you say there is no liquidity..

Can you succinctly - in one line (not sentence) state what it is that has changed on a fundamental level? I genuinely want to understand and respond through discussion

John bhai,

Try running a business in India, then no one will need to explain what the problem is.

@rhytha

You are putting up a red herring. No one is saying you can't deal in cash anymore. Just declare your money and pay taxes. It is like asking a student used to cheating in exams to study and try to pass. Those used to cheating will he unhappy. Those not used to cheating but do it for convenience becoz he/she is not used to it or don't know about it will move to the banking system and pay taxes. Will it be costly for Modi? It could be but he has stated he is not PM to just warm the chair like people in the past and he has promised a better future if people follow him.

abhischekcc wrote:

JohnTitor wrote: Mohd - I am unsure what your grief is. You seem to be moving the goal posts all the time.

First you say, noone has black money and there will be no demand, then you say there is no liquidity..

Can you succinctly - in one line (not sentence) state what it is that has changed on a fundamental level? I genuinely want to understand and respond through discussion

John bhai,

Try running a business in India, then no one will need to explain what the problem is.

Well, we are not and depend upon you to explain us the long term impediments, if any, this move has created to conducting business in india.

@abcc

You are not the only one doing business in India. My brother is a businessman and has the same problem. He tries not to get into deals that are black. His business would have been far greater if dealt in black. He has taken the choice to earn 10000 instead of 20000. Make that choice instead of heckling others to support BM.

Nirmala sitaraman says at thanthi TV interview that only modi and jetli knew. Rest of cabinet were in the dark.