Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

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If an AAPtard confronts you, show him this table. All the 3 major surveys did show a very good estimate of AAP's vote share in delhi a month before the election itself. So this whole nonsense that no one could predict our performance is junk. In fact all the surveys did a damn good job in delhi election vote share prediction. Again (may sound like i am praising them), but csds was the only survey to put cong in 3rd place both in seats and votes. So they did get the trend right. But all 3 did a good job in vote% prediction, but horribly wrong in seat conversion especially for AAP. Of course politicsparty.com did the best job on that, he parotted for 3 months that BJP will be single largest closely followed by AAP and cong will be in single digit.

Anyway, so i think we can reliably look at csds for broad trends, their numbers are OK, but not the best. But their trends are worth looking at.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by svenkat »

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/dmk-seeks-referendum-for-political-solution-to-sri-lankan-tamils/article5695796.ece
The 10th State conference of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) on Sunday urged the Indian government to move a resolution in the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) seeking referendum among the Sri Lankan to facilitate a political solution preferred by them.

A resolution adopted in the meeting said India should insist on a referendum under the supervision of the United Nations and an international inquiry into the alleged war crimes in the last phase of war between the Sri Lankan Army and the LTTE.

The Centre should not fall prey to the Sri Lankan government and should stand by the U.S. when the resolution against the Sri Lankan government for its human rights violations is moved in the UNHRC, the party urged.

The conference also demanded abrogation of the agreement between India and Sri Lanka ceding Katchatheevu to Sri Lanka.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vivek.rao »

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AAP Poll of polls: 27% Actual: 30%
CON Poll of polls: 28% Actual: 25%
BJP Poll of polls: 32% Actual: 33%

So CONGis after seeing what is going to happen to them, simply xferred all votes to AAP
Last edited by vivek.rao on 16 Feb 2014 21:42, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by svenkat »

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/dmk-victory-will-ensure-social-justice-kanimozhi/article5695777.ece
The general council meeting, while ruling out an alliance with the Congress, decided to go to the polls along with its existing allies.Another MP Dayanidhi Maran said the crowd present in conference was a clear proof that the DMK alliance would sweep the Lok Sabha polls.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vivek.rao »

Unemployment Rate

Gujarat---------: 0.9%
MP--------------: 1.2%
Rajasthan-------: 1.8%
Chattishgarth---: 2.3%
Maharastra------: 2.3%
Karnatakka------: 2.4%
Addhra Pradesh- : 3.6%
Haryana---------: 6.5%
Assam---------- : 14.6%
Delhi-----------: 21.1%

WOW! Check these

http://www.firstbiz.com/economy/youth-u ... 74226.html
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Alright Ramana sir and Nagesh Sir,

I know its long overdue, but finally completed it. Please see summary of all major polls from July 2013. (mainly only cvoter and csds, nielson is not providing vote shares to the detail i need, ibtl maybe considered a little pro bjp, so i avoided it). I have only put up vote shares to see trends, since i recommend that no one should trust the vote share to seat conversion used by any of these agencies (csds is probably a little better, but still).

Some state maybe missing, since data is not available on them. I have not put up states where BJP is not a player.

The below states seem to have a solid Modi/BJP wave with incremental performance every month

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Below are 4 states where AAP has a decent effect. If you look carefully, AAP does have a decent chance of helping congress in punjab, but thats just based on one data point from cvoter oct 2013 poll as reference. Otherwise, generally they seem to be taking congress votes.

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In UP and Bihar, both surveys get the trend right. CSDS is probably overestimating BJP while CVoter is underestimating it. Point to note is that in both states, BJP is evenly damaging all parties and picking up a lot of (other/ind) vote which in past was the splintered OBC groups who did not have big numbers as a separate group even though OBC's as a whole are the biggest chunk.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Virendra wrote: I can't guarantee all 25 for BJP as one or two factors go here and there all the time. But yes 22-23 is fully guaranteed.
If you see the reactions in Delhi over the past few days, AAP's only base that has not crumbled is the Autorickshaw walas and Slums.
Now, Rajasthan doesn't have a considerable populace of that kind. The tiny bit that is there .. is in hands of BSP etc.
Urban voter wants to give a chance to NaMo, Semi-Urban is a deadly NaMo bhakt.
Rural voter swings heavier than Shaun Pollock, but we're hoping for plenty of NaMo influence as Rajsathan is latter's neighbor too.

Also, 2-3 months is a short time for Raje to mess things up so much. I see that she is acting very mature & careful in 2nd term so far. (I'd love a bit more spark though ;) )

Regards,
Virendra
Thanks Dude. Sounds very good.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by gandharva »

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devesh
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by devesh »

BJP's sudden rise reminds me of Raghoba (Raghunatha Rao) in Delhi in 1758. let's hope the parallels end there.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by JohnTitor »

muraliravi wrote:Below are 4 states where AAP has a decent effect. If you look carefully, AAP does have a decent chance of helping congress in punjab, but thats just based on one data point from cvoter oct 2013 poll as reference. Otherwise, generally they seem to be taking congress votes.

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Sir, great work! I think you might have missed something in your analysis. Notice BJP voteshare in delhi goes from 40% (oct13) to 43% (Feb14). The latter data point is AFTER AAP ruled for a month. So all the dramas have had a positive effect for BJP - which is why I had said BJP should let AAP run the govt and make a fool of itself. And that they have.

Now I am only saying this because of the likes of RM who keep claiming that AAP are going to get more and more seats when reality is showing otherwise.

IMHO, your analysis is showing what my contacts have been saying all along. AAP is damaging INC far more than it is BJP, at least in delhi!
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Shonu wrote:
Sir, great work! I think you might have missed something in your analysis. Notice BJP voteshare in delhi goes from 40% (oct13) to 43% (Feb14). The latter data point is AFTER AAP ruled for a month. So all the dramas have had a positive effect for BJP - which is why I had said BJP should let AAP run the govt and make a fool of itself. And that they have.

Now I am only saying this because of the likes of RM who keep claiming that AAP are going to get more and more seats when reality is showing otherwise.

IMHO, your analysis is showing what my contacts have been saying all along. AAP is damaging INC far more than it is BJP, at least in delhi!
There is only one problem in delhi, see BJP's basic vote base at the max in a LS is 40-45%, I dont expect that 43% to go up much. The problem is the INC vote base (whoever it is, they all hate BJP, that is how delhi is and has been for the last 2 decades) will en masse vote for AAP to screw BJP. That will not make AAP win all seats, my guess is delhi will be 4-3 or 3-4, for BJP-AAP.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Gossip

मोदी का अति आत्मविश्वास

भाजपा में गंभीर मंथन के दौर जारी है कि गठबंधन का गणित आखिर कैसे सुलझेगा? वहीं पार्टी के पीएम पद के उम्मीदवार नरेंद्र मोदी अति आत्मविश्वास से लबरेज़ नज़र आते हैं, पिछले दिनों दिल्ली में आहूत पार्टी सांसदों के डिनर को संबोधित करते हुए मोदी ने कहा-‘हमें तीसरे मोर्चे या फेडरल फ्रंट के गठन से डरने की जरूरत नहीं, इस बार का चुनाव ‘बीजेपी वर्सेस रेस्ट’ होगा, इन दलों को इक_ïा होने दो, इसका लाभ हमें ही मिलेगा, इसीलिए मैं 2014 के चुनाव में भाजपा की सीटों की गिनती 225 से शुरू कर रहा हूं।’ ज़ाहिर है मोदी की यह बात पार्टी के कई बड़े नेताओं के गले नहीं उतर रही है।

The biggies are scared of elections

The take on General Elections 2014 is different. The political landscape is changing everyday and even the biggies of the game are not sure about their ground. For instance, Digvijay Singh’s claims about contesting the elections against BJP’s bigshots Sushma Swaraj from Vidisha carried no steam; no he seems unwilling to contest even from Sagar. Another prominent Congress leader Suresh Pachauri has refused to contest the elections and P C Joshi from Rajasthan is talking in the same language. Sachin Pilot wants to leave his Ajmer seat and try his luck from Joshi’s seat in Bhilwara. Minister of State for Sports Bhanwar Jitendra Singh wants his wife Ambika Singh to contest the elections from his seat in Alwar. Despite the Modi winds blowing throughout the country, several prominent leaders in the party are feeling out of sorts. Politicians such as Arun Jaitley, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi and Venkaiah Naidu don’t want to contest the elections. Modi Forum is miffed with Shatrughan Sinha’s tall claims and wants Ravi Shankar Prasad to contest from Sinha’s seat in Patna. Kalyan Singh’s son Rajveer Singh is also not sure about contesting elections from Bulandshahr and wants the Rajya Sabha for himself. Shashi Tharoor is in mourning over his wife Sunanda’s untimely death and he is not interested in contesting the elections from Thiruvananthapuram.

If Sachin Pilot wants a change of seat, be rest assured of 25/25. Modi should not as RS Prasad to contest from Patna, if he cannot convince MMJ to move out of Varanasi, he should contest from Patna himself.

Uttarakhand’s punishment

Harish Rawat, who has got the chief minister’s post after a wait of 12 long years, has led to several people feeling an old nagging pain again. Sources reveal that former Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna’s camp is already getting ready to shake the foundations of Harish Rawat’s chair. Five Congress Assembly members of this camp are in constant touch with a prominent business house and the head of this business house is meeting prominent BJP leaders and giving the party an offer that if the BJP is ready to form a government, all five members are ready to resign and in return, the business house is ready to give any price asked by the BJP. Poor Rawat is between a rock and a hard place – to save his chair or run the government.

I hope BJP does not do anything stupid, let them screw themselves, this is a clean slate state, BJP is anyway getting 5/5, why mess up doing jod-tod now, do it in June.

The nectar-induced Varanasi

Elections in the Varanasi will be interesting this time. This will be the first time someone from the King of Varanasi clan will contest elections. Varanasi’s king’s grandson wanted a ticket from the Congress, but Rahul Gandhi took too much time thinking about it. Sensing the opportunity, the SP offered a ticket to the family. JNU Professor Anand Kumar will contest the elections from Aam Aadmi Party. In the present circumstances, BJP’s MP Murli Manohar Joshi might see his hopes being dashed against the wall, because it is said that the public in Varanasi is miffed with Joshi. The long-standing blame against him is that he is seen in the city very rarely and is mostly in Delhi. That is why Purvanchal politicians in the BJP had requested Modi to contest the elections from Varanasi. Sangh also planned a strategy under which all leaders such as Joshi would be sent to the Rajya Sabha but Joshi didn’t agree to it. Thus, getting Modi to contest from Varanasi seems to be an uphill task for the BJP at present.

This old guy is being a pain in the ***. I mean wth man, how many dozen reports does he need that show he will lose badly. Why cant he just vacate? He will screw BJP in purvanchal also because of this. They should put some more pressure on him

NaMo got Raj to come around

The two Thackeray brother Uddhav and Raj may still not be seeing eye to eye, but keen politician Modi has got Raj Thackeray to agree that in the coming Lok Sabha elections, Raj’s MNS will not launch any of its candidates to contest. Raj and NaMo have been friends for a long time, and because of this, NaMo has also promised Raj that when the Maharashtra Assembly elections are held, the BJP will openly and completely support the MNS, without worrying if it will upset Uddhav.

This is the biggest master stroke of this election. This is the 2nd news item that has confirmed this info, 2 weeks ago, i posted a sunday guardian article to the same effect. Modi will be doing a bunch of rallies in MH soon, with no MNS in contest, I expect NDA to get 40/48. Surveys are already putting them at 33-35.

तेलांगना पर कांगे्रस

तेलांगना मुद्दे पर संसद में कांग्रेस ने बहुत सोच-समझकर अपने पत्ते चले हैं, इस मुद्दे पर देश की संसद चाहे जिस कदर शर्मसार हुई हो, कांग्रेस को लगता है उसका दांव सही गया है, पिछले दिनों में सदन में ठीक हुआ भी यही, संसद में तेलांगना विधेयक पेश भी कर दिया गया और सदन चलने भी नहीं दिया गया, यानी सीमांध्र को यह संदेश था कि यह बिल पास नहीं होगा, वहीं लगे हाथ तेलांगना को यह लॉलीपॉप कि कांग्रेसनीत यूपीए सरकार की तेलांगना को लेकर नीयत साफ है, इसीलिए सदन में यह बिल पेश कर दिया गया, कांग्रेस ने अपने 6 उपद्रवी सांसदों को निलंबित कर तेलांगना वालों को यही संदेश देना चाहती है, पर लगता है टीआरएस यानी तेलांगना राष्टï्रीय समिति ने कांग्रेस की इस दोहरी चाल की धार समझ ली है और अब टीआरएस मुखिया चंद्रशेखर राव अपनी पार्टी का विलय कांग्रेस में करने से कतरा रहे हैं, वहीं अब भाजपा भी तेलांगना के पक्ष में उतनी मजबूती से खड़ी नहीं दिखती।
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Suraj »

muraliravi, just a note of appreciation and encouragement - great work collecting and tabulating all this data! Looking forward to more.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Suraj wrote:muraliravi, just a note of appreciation and encouragement - great work collecting and tabulating all this data! Looking forward to more.
Thank you Sir.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

I just thought I am not doing justice to Maharashtra with 48 seats. So here is a detailed snapshot.

Image

Notice the red flag in MNS at July -2013 in Cvoter, that 14% is way off. CSDS had 43% for UPA around July 2013, which is probably right and so cvoter goofed up in their july survey on MNS/UPA. So take that 50.3% at july with a bucket of salt. If I take 5% off MNS share and give it to UPA (not that MNS's vote is cong vote, but i am sure it is a survey error), july NDA in 45%.

But the big picture, NDA makes steady gains in MH on both surveys. I am saying MNS is part of NDA, because, I am almost 99% sure that he will not fight lok sabha polls, as I had posted previously. His votes are fully transferable to the BJP/Sena. So by May you may see a NDA at 50% and UPA at 28-30% in this state. AAP will hit cong badly in Mumbai giving BJP/SS the seats. I would say this state is going to see a white wash.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Atri »

One more party - rashtriya samaj paksha (RSP) is in NDA in MH. Mahadeo Jankar will be contesting from Madha constituency.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SwamyG »

johneeG wrote:There should also release the numbers for the amount of funds used for the Govt ads. Infact, the next Govt should release the amount of funds spent on the Govt. ads.
I like some of the Bharat Nirman ads, these advertisements provide more employment than their other schemes. Imagine the actors, artisans, marketing, revenue to media ityadi. Probably less corruption in these advertisements than in their Rajiv Gandhi or Indira Gandhi schemes.

Some of these ads are catchy and moving....I just hope these ads reach minuscule people. However, Congress is not a stupid party. I expect a major blitzkrieg in the last few weeks. Congress will open another front (using AAP) and Modi will be fighting:
1) Congress.
2) AAP.
3) 3rd Front
4) 4th Front.
5) NGOs, Media, Mullahs and Missionaries.

If Modi wins 2014, it would be truly like the victory achieved by Pandavas over Kauravas.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Hari Seldon »

Are KL alliances finalized? AFAIK, NDA in kerala comprises lotus alone at the moment. The NSS and the Ezhava communities have joined in or not? And the KC? Would be nice to get clarity on this. Will help vote share in several seats, IMHO.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by disha »

SwamyG wrote:
johneeG wrote:There should also release the numbers for the amount of funds used for the Govt ads. Infact, the next Govt should release the amount of funds spent on the Govt. ads.
I like some of the Bharat Nirman ads, these advertisements provide more employment than their other schemes. Imagine the actors, artisans, marketing, revenue to media ityadi. Probably less corruption in these advertisements than in their Rajiv Gandhi or Indira Gandhi schemes.

Some of these ads are catchy and moving....I just hope these ads reach minuscule people. However, Congress is not a stupid party. I expect a major blitzkrieg in the last few weeks. Congress will open another front (using AAP) and Modi will be fighting:
1) Congress.
2) AAP.
3) 3rd Front
4) 4th Front.
5) NGOs, Media, Mullahs and Missionaries.

If Modi wins 2014, it would be truly like the victory achieved by Pandavas over Kauravas.
Modi welcomes all of the above kauravas to fight and come to kuru-kshetra. Each of them will keep Modi in news and given that each of the above has no other ideas beyond - tod-jod and dharnas and meri-bhi-choti-sarkar and lacerating penance., they will bring out the best in NaMo and his ideas.

And everybody knows how NaMo can execute. So yes, it is a kurukshetra.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

muraliravi, pretty cool stats. keep it up. This thread is meant for such analysis with election news.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by VinodTK »

Rahul's roadshow fails to connect
Tumkur (K'taka), Feb 16, 2014, DHNS
The Congress had, on Sunday, organised its vice president Rahul Gandhi’s roadshow across the three districts of Tumkur, Mandya and Mysore to garner support of people ahead of the parliamentary elections.

Instead, the much-anticipated show left a large number of people disappointed as they could not even have a look at the young leader, let alone hear or interact with him.

Rahul, who was over an hour behind schedule, literally zipped through Gulur, Nagavalli, Hebbur, Kunigal, Huliyurdurga and Kestur, Maddur, Srirangapattana and Mysore city before reaching Mandakalli airport on the outskirts of Mysore around 8:20 pm. His sojourn began around 3:15 pm from Tumkur town. Though he was forced to stop his vehicle at some places, he chose to just greet people from inside his four-wheeler.

The stated aim of the roadshow was to connect with people. He was in a hurry to catch a flight to Delhi from Mysore.

A large number of people, mainly party workers, were eagerly waiting to talk to and greet the Congress leader in these places. Many of them had brought garlands, while some wanted to air their woes. Local Congressmen had made people, including women and children, wait for about two hours to meet the Congress leader.

But what they finally saw was a long cavalcade of four-wheelers of Congress leaders. KPCC chief G Parameshwara and local leaders accompanied Rahul on the roadshow.

However, he managed to step out of the vehicle at Gulur (on the outskirts of Tumkur), where he shook hands with some people, and at Maddur, where former Union minister S M Krishna garlanded him. He later passed through the main streets of Mysore city.

This apart, people along the route where Rahul conducted the roadshow had to put up with inconvenience as the traffic was blocked.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Atri wrote:One more party - rashtriya samaj paksha (RSP) is in NDA in MH. Mahadeo Jankar will be contesting from Madha constituency.
Good deal sir, I hope all these seats are not coming from BJP's kitty. I am already mad that all 4 seats (2 to rpi and 2 to Swabhimani have come from BJP's kitty) making it 22:22 for BJP and SS down from 26 for BJP. Madha seems to be seat that was contested last by BJP. So I hope SS gives some seat from its kitty to BJP to even it out.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Hari Seldon »

BJP CHANCE BAFFLES CONG, LEFT IN KERALA

http://www.dailypioneer.com/nation/bjp- ... erala.html
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by M Joshi »

Saw Tata Tea's ads on tele. How women are 49% of voters & should not be ignored.
Rahul baba making a pitch to women in his Arnab interview & in his speeches from then on, women empowerment, asking RSS why there aren't any women in its cadre, etc etc. Seems like Tatas are firmly on the side of their pre-librelization buddy.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by JohnTitor »

muraliravi wrote: There is only one problem in delhi, see BJP's basic vote base at the max in a LS is 40-45%, I dont expect that 43% to go up much. The problem is the INC vote base (whoever it is, they all hate BJP, that is how delhi is and has been for the last 2 decades) will en masse vote for AAP to screw BJP. That will not make AAP win all seats, my guess is delhi will be 4-3 or 3-4, for BJP-AAP.
Sir, my point exactly. The BJP voteshare won't go higher than 40-45% since this is the "norm". But what is important is that those who strayed to AAP during delhi elections are back in the bag. Now any gains are at the expense of other parties. AAP's gain (if any) would be at the expense of INC solely and not even the 3-5% of BJP voteshare he got during the assembly elections
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

Shonu wrote:
muraliravi wrote: There is only one problem in delhi, see BJP's basic vote base at the max in a LS is 40-45%, I dont expect that 43% to go up much. The problem is the INC vote base (whoever it is, they all hate BJP, that is how delhi is and has been for the last 2 decades) will en masse vote for AAP to screw BJP. That will not make AAP win all seats, my guess is delhi will be 4-3 or 3-4, for BJP-AAP.
Sir, my point exactly. The BJP voteshare won't go higher than 40-45% since this is the "norm". But what is important is that those who strayed to AAP during delhi elections are back in the bag. Now any gains are at the expense of other parties. AAP's gain (if any) would be at the expense of INC solely and not even the 3-5% of BJP voteshare he got during the assembly elections
Not sure where you are getting this from. In 1998 and 1999, BJP had a vote share of 51% and 52% of the vote respectively. Only in 2004 and 2009 has BJP vote share fallen sharply. No reason why NaMo cannot grab 50% of the vote.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by JohnTitor »

VinodTK wrote:Rahul's roadshow fails to connect
Tumkur (K'taka), Feb 16, 2014, DHNS
The Congress had, on Sunday, organised its vice president Rahul Gandhi’s roadshow across the three districts of Tumkur, Mandya and Mysore to garner support of people ahead of the parliamentary elections.

Instead, the much-anticipated show left a large number of people disappointed as they could not even have a look at the young leader, let alone hear or interact with him.

Rahul, who was over an hour behind schedule, literally zipped through Gulur, Nagavalli, Hebbur, Kunigal, Huliyurdurga and Kestur, Maddur, Srirangapattana and Mysore city before reaching Mandakalli airport on the outskirts of Mysore around 8:20 pm. His sojourn began around 3:15 pm from Tumkur town. Though he was forced to stop his vehicle at some places, he chose to just greet people from inside his four-wheeler.

The stated aim of the roadshow was to connect with people. He was in a hurry to catch a flight to Delhi from Mysore.

A large number of people, mainly party workers, were eagerly waiting to talk to and greet the Congress leader in these places. Many of them had brought garlands, while some wanted to air their woes. Local Congressmen had made people, including women and children, wait for about two hours to meet the Congress leader.

But what they finally saw was a long cavalcade of four-wheelers of Congress leaders. KPCC chief G Parameshwara and local leaders accompanied Rahul on the roadshow.

However, he managed to step out of the vehicle at Gulur (on the outskirts of Tumkur), where he shook hands with some people, and at Maddur, where former Union minister S M Krishna garlanded him. He later passed through the main streets of Mysore city.

This apart, people along the route where Rahul conducted the roadshow had to put up with inconvenience as the traffic was blocked.
:rotfl: :rotfl:

We need more such "rallies". Then again, these people deserve it, i#m sure they will still vote INC.. so they get what they deserve
JohnTitor
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by JohnTitor »

nageshks wrote:Not sure where you are getting this from. In 1998 and 1999, BJP had a vote share of 51% and 52% of the vote respectively. Only in 2004 and 2009 has BJP vote share fallen sharply. No reason why NaMo cannot grab 50% of the vote.
Yes. But the recent norm has been 45% as pointed out by murli ji. I believe someone here posted a graph of BJP voteshare for the last 20yrs throughtout which it has been 35-40% (other than 98/99 when ABV was contesting). So without NaMo, BJP wouldn't have hit 45% let alone cross it. Now with the experience of living under an AAP govt, what little BJP voteshare was lost is back in the bag. As far as going back to the 90's 50% is concerned, it is definitely possible, especially if NM comes over and thrashes the 50day govt left right and centre. The excuse of "we are new to this" shouldnt' stick because the obvious response would be "then get experience before you run for LS!".
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SanjayC »

In 1998 and 1999, BJP had a vote share of 51% and 52% of the vote respectively. Only in 2004 and 2009 has BJP vote share fallen sharply. No reason why NaMo cannot grab 50% of the vote.
The same year EVMs were introduced. There has been no looking back since by Cong.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vivek.rao »

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 25m
Senior police officers are flocking to BJP everywhere, a sure sign of which way the wind is blowing, as cops know it best!

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 22m
Arun Oraon, who resigned as IG to join BJP, comes from a loyal Congress family (His father Bandi Oraon was a minister in Bihar).

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 19m
Oraons are the second largest tribal group in Jharkhand and have been traditional Cong supporters; Arun Oraon would be a great asset to BJP!
My only question is with all these powerful people joining, will they let Modi do his magic or keep scamming people like SONIA
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by IndraD »

regarding Khujli present house--he is entitled as MLA for that house though his wife is not. As a standing MLA and chief of a national party he is entitled to that house as long as this assembly is not dissolved. Fly on wall from Delhi tells me AAP Delhi may break in 2-3 months as there is dis satisfaction inside party.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by prahaar »

IndraD wrote:regarding Khujli present house--he is entitled as MLA for that house though his wife is not. As a standing MLA and chief of a national party he is entitled to that house as long as this assembly is not dissolved. Fly on wall from Delhi tells me AAP Delhi may break in 2-3 months as there is dis satisfaction inside party.
How did AAP suddenly become a national party? I guess EC confers national party status based on multi-state vote share criteria.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

prahaar wrote:
IndraD wrote:regarding Khujli present house--he is entitled as MLA for that house though his wife is not. As a standing MLA and chief of a national party he is entitled to that house as long as this assembly is not dissolved. Fly on wall from Delhi tells me AAP Delhi may break in 2-3 months as there is dis satisfaction inside party.
How did AAP suddenly become a national party? I guess EC confers national party status based on multi-state vote share criteria.
National Party - recognized in at least 4 states

State Party - (i) Politically active for at least 5 years, (ii) 4% of LS seats from the state OR 3.33% of VS seats in that state
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Yagnasri »

Gurus, PAAP was not even entitled for a election simble but was allotted on by EC. One wonders why?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vivek.rao »

Narayana Rao wrote:Gurus, PAAP was not even entitled for a election simble but was allotted on by EC. One wonders why?
That is the sad thing about India. Police,COurts,ECs,Parliaments any thing can be bought,influenced and derailed. No law and No process. We as a mob also do the same thing. Since Kejri is popular today, most idiotic people will support any violation/exception of law.

This is how institutions stop working and we end up like now
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

Narayana Rao wrote:Gurus, PAAP was not even entitled for a election simble but was allotted on by EC. One wonders why?
In fact AAP still does not have the exclusive right over use of "Jhaadu" throughout India. It has been recognized only in Delhi, just one state.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Virupaksha »

Narayana Rao wrote:Gurus, PAAP was not even entitled for a election simble but was allotted on by EC. One wonders why?
this was because of a case by Jagan, IIRC
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Muppalla wrote:muraliravi, pretty cool stats. keep it up. This thread is meant for such analysis with election news.
Well, so lets get started on the real election news. Its high time we start getting news at a district level. Let me start here (sorry to start with a bad news)

BJP losing ground in Agra seat

http://www.jagran.com/news/national-agr ... tml?src=p1

आगरा। लोकसभा चुनाव में जीत का ताज हासिल करने की कसरत में जुटी भाजपा के पसीने ताजनगरी ने छुड़ा दिए हैं। प्रत्याशी तय करने के लिए पार्टी जो गोपनीय सर्वे करा रही है, उसी सर्वे में वोट प्रतिशत घट रहा है। लेकिन भाजपा को सीट से ज्यादा इस बात की चिंता है कि शहर में मोदी का जादू असर क्यों नहीं कर रहा? जबकि सर्वे आगरा में मोदी की ऐतिहासिक विजय शंखनाद रैली के बाद हुआ है।

लोकसभा चुनाव में भाजपा प्रधानमंत्री पद के उम्मीदवार नरेंद्र मोदी तो कांग्रेस हटाओ का नारा देकर 272 प्लस का लक्ष्य भेदने की कसरत में जुटे हैं। देश भर में मोदी मैजिक के जबर्दस्त असर के दावे हो रहे हैं, लेकिन इस गुमान में डूबी भाजपा आगरा सीट को लेकर बैचेन हो गई है। आगरा लोकसभा सीट पर भाजपा वर्तमान में भाजपा के रामशंकर कठेरिया सांसद हैं। हालांकि बीते लोकसभा चुनाव से पहले इस सीट पर लगातार दो बार सपा से सिने अभिनेता राजबब्बर ने जीत हासिल की थी, लेकिन बावजूद इसके इस सीट पर भाजपा की मजबूत पकड़ मानी जाती है। ऊपर से बीते साल 21 नवंबर को कोठी मीना बाजार मैदान में नरेंद्र मोदी की विजय शंखनाद रैली ऐतिहासिक रही थी। रिकॉर्ड भीड़ उमड़ी थी, जिसने भाजपा को उत्साह में भर दिया था।

पार्टी सूत्रों के मुताबिक इसके बाद पार्टी द्वारा कराए जा रहे गोपनीय सर्वे का सिलसिला शुरू हुआ। सूत्रों की मानें, तो पहला सर्वे मोदी की रैली से पहले कराया गया था, इस सर्वे में लोकसभा क्षेत्र में भाजपा की पकड़ कमजोर होने का खुलासा हुआ। फिर पार्टी ने विजय शंखनाद रैली के बाद सर्वे कराया, उम्मीद थी कि तब तक हालात बदल चुके होंगे। लेकिन परिणाम चौंकाने वाले आए। दूसरे सर्वे में भी पार्टी का वोट प्रतिशत करीब तीन फीसद तक घटता हुआ सामने आया। पार्टी सूत्रों के मुताबिक इसके बाद पिछले दिनों एक और सर्वे कराया गया है, इसमें भी पार्टी का वोट प्रतिशत घट रहा है। सूत्रों की मानें, तो सर्वे रिपोर्ट मिलने के बाद पार्टी आलाकमान आगरा सीट को लेकर मंथन में जुटी है।

कम अंतर से जीते थे कठेरिया

वर्ष 2009 में हुए लोकसभा चुनाव की बात करें, तो भाजपा प्रत्याशी रामशंकर कठेरिया को दो लाख तीन हजार 647 वोट पाकर जीते थे और दूसरे नंबर पर रहे बसपा प्रत्याशी कुंवरचंद वकील को 1 लाख 93 हजार 982 वोट हासिल हुए थे। यानि जीत में केवल नौ हजार 665 वोटों का ही अंतर था। अब भाजपा की चिंता यह है कि सर्वे में बीते चुनाव के मुकाबले वोट में तीन फीसद तक कमी सीधे हार की तरफ इशारा करती दिखती है।

हार का सबसे बड़ा कारण भितरघात

पार्टी सूत्रों की मानें, तो सर्वे में पार्टी की लोकप्रियता की दिक्कत के साथ संगठन के अंदर गुटबाजी को नुकसान की अहम वजह माना गया है। सामने आया है कि लोकसभा क्षेत्र के तहत संगठन में कई गुट बने हुए हैं और बहुत से नेता भितरघात भी कर सकते हैं।


My question is if this is the case, why on earth is ramshankar katheriya being propped up as the candidate from agra. It is clear that much before Modi's rally (Nov 21) there was good anti incumbency against this sitting BJP MP. He won by a thin margin last time and SP won this seat both in 99 and 04. What is the purpose of the internal survey if you cannot use that to decide your candidate. UP will be won only and only by right candidate selection (BJP should know this very well, Modi will help, but you cant just rely on that). On top of all this, the last para clearly suggests sabotage.

But on the other hand I would not blame BJP entirely, every party has this headache if they want to replace a sitting MP unless he himself wants to vacate.

The larger issue is, aren't BJP MP's supposed to perform unless other junkies, Varun Gandhi has been a joke for pilibhit (no wonder he is moving), the lesser said about MM Joshi, the better it is. So just in this one para I have described you the pathetic state of 3 of the 10 sitting BJP MP's in UP. But no I am a fool right, Namo wave will consume all and pigs will fly
Last edited by muraliravi on 17 Feb 2014 19:54, edited 1 time in total.
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

nageshks wrote:
Not sure where you are getting this from. In 1998 and 1999, BJP had a vote share of 51% and 52% of the vote respectively. Only in 2004 and 2009 has BJP vote share fallen sharply. No reason why NaMo cannot grab 50% of the vote.
You are correct, but I see a trend in the last 10 years of delhi steadily moving away from BJP, just like congress has been wiped out in certain parts of the country. Its just me, I hope Namo can pull up to 50.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by harbans »

His sojourn began around 3:15 pm from Tumkur town. Though he was forced to stop his vehicle at some places, he chose to just greet people from inside his four-wheeler.

The stated aim of the roadshow was to connect with people. He was in a hurry to catch a flight to Delhi from Mysore.
So basically began his day almost evening time, zipped through a few villages and caught a flight to Delhi back for some late night party? One can see the kind of commitment this guy has. Governing this country doesn't need this kind of work ethic, but someone really serious and dedicated.
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