West Asia News and Discussions

[shyamd]

shyam, my bad, i meant 'low profile not 'low key.Wrong choice of words on my part.Of course they mean business and thats why they are here,I spotted Shk Ahmed @ the India Today Conclave when PC gave a talk rapping the Pakis.

Ji... PC and Sheikh Ahmed had counter terror consultations on the side of the summit, I posted an article on it above.

Its definitely more of a Dubai rather than a UAE visit,quite obvious when he isn't referred to as the PM or VP rather the ruler.But I am still quite keen on figuring out what 'talks' were held as nothing was covered by the Indian media.Of course local media(KT,GN etc) do the usual snippet practically all the time without disclosing any little bit.I can only suspect there has been a major trade understanding going on as Shk mo must be wrangling to get out of the 'conditions' Abu Dhabi would have imposed with the bailout..i.e. keeping away from foreign policy re the French and the Canadian air base decisions was the start.

The visit was quite sudden. Lets see how things play out, Sh. Mo could have easily chosen not to come. It was mainly trade and counter terror discussed (basically Dawood and his cronies). More later.

[shyamd]

Dawn: Saudi Invitation

An interesting twist appears to have been added to Pak-India relations. Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has revealed that his Saudi counterpart has invited him for a briefing on the recent visit of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Saudi Arabia — a trip that culminated with Mr Singh telling the Indian media that he had requested the Saudi king to use his ‘good offices’ to prevail on Pakistan to desist from ‘aiding, abetting and inspiring’ terrorism in India.

But was this the entirety of the Indian PM’s message? Given domestic compulsions, Mr Singh could perhaps not say publicly what he told the Saudi king privately: that the Indian government may be amenable to the Saudis playing some kind of role to help break the impasse in Pak-India relations. Could this be the reason for Mr Qureshi’s visit to the Saudi kingdom?

Even if it is not, the Pakistani FM will be keen for at least two reasons to speak to the Saudis. First, a host of regional issues will have been discussed in the talks between King Abdullah and the first Indian prime minister to visit the kingdom in nearly three decades, and Pakistan will want to know the details of what was discussed. It is quite possible that Mr Singh had some kind of indirect message for Pakistan about his country’s agenda in Afghanistan or even about Pak-India relations. Second, Pakistan will want an update from the Saudis on their push for talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Pakistan has made it clear that it wants a central role in whatever settlement emerges on the future of Afghanistan and so will be determined to not be sidelined or bypassed in any talks with the Taliban.

At the moment, though, only this is clear: there is an impending security shift in the region that will in many ways be as profound as the change after 9/11. The status quo will simply not hold much longer. Either the American surge in Afghanistan will work or it will not, and that outcome will to a large extent determine the winners of the ‘scramble for Afghanistan’ which will follow. Pakistan and India, however, must realise that it is also their own futures that are at stake. Competing for influence in Afghanistan is only part of a numbing array of challenges the two states must overcome. From the age-old like Kashmir and the threat of war to the relatively new like water and the ‘Cold Start’ doctrine, the two states need to resolve their differences — and if the ‘good offices’ of the Saudi king can help, then no time should be wasted.

[shyamd]

Hamas takes on the Islamic extremists. Post war Gaza, has lead to many islamist cells being created. Jund ansar allah is backed by Fatah (Dahlan who is backed by Israel). These islamists began attacking Hamas installations in the strip.

Turning up a year ago , Jund Ansar Allah, , operated in the town of Rafah and denounced the “unnatural alliance” between Sunni Hamas and Shi'ite Iran, deemed “abominable”. Jund Ansar Allah is operating with the backing of Dahlan (Fatah) to get rid of Hamas. Having failed to get a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas, Egyptian intel minister also has begun supporting islamists. Egypt and West Bank are providing support to these islamists against Hamas. Hamas intel investigating this found the links to Dahlan gang.

A group attacked Dahlans relatives wedding in Gaza. Hamas blamed JundAnsarAllah although hamas was reportedly suspected.

Dahlan is also supporting Islamic Jihad and Army of Islam.

[shyamd]

Yemen
A Short Primer on the Wars of Yemen

The Gulf Emirates, Like Al Qaeda and Houthi Rebels, Want Their Cut of Yemen
Leon Panetta

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's intelligence sources reported minutes before this issue closed that the CIA Director Leon Panetta had arrived secretly in Cairo and Jerusalem Thursday night, Jan. 28, to prepare the ground for expanding US military intervention in Yemen against al Qaeda's strongholds.

In Cairo, Panetta discussed the use of Egyptian airports for the transfer of US troops and equipment to Yemen.

In Jerusalem, he exchanged intelligence evaluations on the Yemen front.


The complexities of the conflicts crisscrossing Yemen are unending. They certainly defied the combined efforts to cut through to solutions by the representatives of 20 countries, led by US Secretary of state Hillary Clinton, who convened in London Wednesday, Jan. 27.

As the meeting began, the US military leaked word that the US had been deeply involved in secret joint operations with Yemeni troops against al Qaeda for the past six weeks - thus confirming the report in DEBKA-Net-Weekly 427 of Jan. 1 2010 (The Americans Are Already Fighting Terror in Yemen -Though Covertly.)

This involvement is about to expand.

Clinton argued that economic aid without limited military intervention would not save Ali Abdullah Salah's regime in Sanaa or his impoverished country of 22 million inhabitants, which is strategically positioned at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula and commands the narrow straits into the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Yemen would sink into anarchy at the mercy of three insurgencies and multiplying power moves.

Her fellow-participants were not convinced.

Yemen is beset with an Iran-backed Houthi revolt in the north which also spills over into Saudi Arabia; the grip of "Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula" in the central and southeastern regions; and the Southern Engine separatist movement around the southern port of Aden.

And that is not all.

Since much of the reporting on Yemen is confusing at best, mendacious at worst, DEBKA-Net-Weekly offers a short guide to its various conflicts and their respective dynamics:



The Houthi Rebellion



In the last week of December 2009, after the Saudi air force and special operations units, backed by

Moroccan commandoes (not Jordanian as we erroneously reported at the time), were beaten back by the Houthi rebels, Riyadh negotiated a ceasefire deal with the Houthis, mediated by Syrian president Bashar Assad through his Iranian cronies, and pulled its troops out of Yemen.

(See DEBKA-Net-Weekly 427 of Jan. 1: DNW Saudi Armed Forces Routed in Yemen.)

The Houthis did not keep to their side of the bargain and kept up their armed incursions into southern Saudi Arabia in an effort to stir up rebellion among the Saudi Ismaili tribes.

In the second week of January, the Saudis resumed their battles against the Houthis.

Military intelligence experts reckon this war can go on for a long period of time without resolution.

The same holds true for the Yemeni army's attempts to quell the Houthi rebellion. The rebels manage to keep the upper hand in the field because Abdullah Salah is short of the military strength for crushing them.

The War against Al-Qaeda

Most of the air and special operations strikes against al Qaeda strongholds are carried out by US and Saudi forces - very few by the Yemenis although they habitually take the credit.

These operations are by and large ineffective.

The local al Qaeda branch has forged pacts with tribal and clan chiefs in central and southeastern Yemen gaining free license to operate at will in three provinces: Marib, east of the capital Sanaa, which controls its eastern and southern approaches; Abyan in the south, which controls the southern reaches of the Gulf of Aden; and Hadhramaut in the southwest, Osama bin Laden's ancestral homeland, which controls the entrance to the Arabian Sea from the Gulf of Aden.

This is the first place where al Qaeda has gained free access to the sea.


The Southern Engine Movement

While the war on al Qaeda has filled front pages, especially since the Yemeni link came to light in the failed bombing of a US-bound airliner last month, very little notice has been taken of the conflict which has the most potential for determining Yemen's future and ending its integrity.

The Southern Engine separatists aspire to carve Yemen in two and base their claim to partition on solid religious and ethnic differences between the South and the North. Some nine million Yemenis of the south, almost half the population, are Sunni Muslims, while central and northern Yemen are dominated by secular or practicing Shiites.

If al Qaeda cements its grip on the provinces of Marib, Abyan and Hadhramaut, then the two elements would tip Yemen over from a Shiite-dominated country to a Sunni republic.

This prospect has not been lost on the Gulf emirates, chiefly Oman on Yemen's border, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Gulf sources report that for a time, the Saudi royal house backed the Sunni Southern Engine movement politically and financially, but withdrew this support after concluding that the Salah regime could not fight three enemies and survive.


The Gulf Emirates Lose Faith in a United Yemen


The rulers of the Gulf emirates jumped in where Riyadh backed off, piping funds and arms to the Southern Engine movement. Their motivation, which none of the delegates to the London conference on the future of Yemen raised, was simple: The Salah regime and with it the united Yemen Republic are doomed to collapse. In these circumstances, the Persian Gulf states must step in sooner rather than later to guarantee their own interests.

They propose helping the separatists establish a Sunni state in southern Yemen ruled by an administration akin to their own emirates. This state would act as a buffer against the pro-Iranian Shiite republic predicted for northern Yemen and the al Qaeda-ruled provinces in the center and south-east.

This is not the only new complication besetting Yemen.

On Wednesday, as Hillary Clinton and her British colleague David Miliband waxed poetic over Yemen's dire need for more help, DEBKA-Net-Weekly Gulf sources discovered the embattled Red Sea republic's two main tribes, the Hashid Tribal Federation and The Bakil Federation, had published a resolution pledging to resist any American involvement in their country.

The Hashids are the biggest tribal federation in Yemen. Their lands stretch across the mountains of the north and northwest of the country. The Bakil federation is the next in size with holdings in the far north.

No government can hold sway in Sanaa without the support of these two tribal federations.

President Salah therefore finds himself on the horns of a fresh dilemma: He must choose between the US bolstering his regime against the foes gathering around its gates or retaining the popular buttress of his rule.

The Obama administration, for its part, must reach a clear decision about whether the US really wants to sink in the Yemeni quicksand.

[Philip]

US-Israeli relations worst ever for 35 years.Crisis on."Regional peace" the issue,as Israeli intransigence endangers US lives in the rgion.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 21812.html

Obama runs out of patience with Israel
Settlement issue provokes 'biggest crisis in relations for 35 years'
By Donald Macintyre in Jerusalem and Hugh MacLeod in Doha

EXcerpts:

The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday strongly defended Jewish settlement construction in East Jerusalem in the face of US pressure and what one of his own top diplomats described as the worst crisis in relations with Washington for more than three decades.

A defiant Mr Netanyahu appeared to be digging in despite clear indications that the Obama administration is now demanding the scrapping of plans for 1,600 new Jewish homes, whose announcement overshadowed last week's visit to Israel by the US Vice-President Joe Biden. Mr Netanyahu's stance appeared to guarantee, after a highly charged week, the protraction of a stand-off in which a full-scale diplomatic row blew up at the start of Mr Biden's visit and appeared to abate at the end of it. But it was then reignited by demands from Hillary Clinton and an angry White House that Israel make amends for the "insulting" announcement just as indirect negotiations with the Palestinians had finally been arranged.

The US is now said to be demanding substantive concessions from Israel after a warning by the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas that he would not take part in talks if the plan to expand the mainly ultra-orthodox Ramat Shlomo settlement went ahead. The row has appeared finally to bring to a head the year-long tensions between the two governments since Barack Obama tried in vain to persuade the Israeli Prime Minister to agree to a total settlement freeze. He was thwarted by Mr Netanyahu who agreed only to a partial 10-month freeze, which did not include East Jerusalem.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz and Israeli Army Radio reported meanwhile that in a conference call with Israeli consuls across the US on Saturday night, Michael Oren, Israel's Ambassador to Washington, said that the crisis was one of "historic proportions". Summoned to the State Department on Friday, he reportedly urged the consuls, on instructions "from the highest level", to lobby Congress, Jewish community groups and the media to make Israel's case. Mr Oren, a historian, apparently recalled a previous stand-off in 1975 between Henry Kissinger and the then Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin over US demands in the aftermath of the Yom Kippur war for a partial withdrawal from the Sinai.

One explanation canvassed in Israel for Washington's tough stance is that pressure is being exerted by the US military for early progress in solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as means of reducing Muslim hostility to the US. During the height of the row last week, Mr Biden was reported by Yedhiot Ahronot to have told Mr Netanyahu: "What you're doing here undermines the security of our troops who are fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. That endangers us and it endangers regional peace."

Asked on Sunday whether Israeli "intransigence" was putting US "troops' lives at risk", David Axelrod, a senior adviser to Mr Obama, said "that region and that issue is a flare point throughout the region so I'm not going to put it in those terms". But he then added that it "was absolutely imperative" not only for "the security of Israel and the Palestinian people2 but "for our own security that ... we resolve this very difficult issue".

[Philip]

Riots erupt and peace envoy cancels visit as anger grows at Jerusalem plan

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 063635.ece

Riots broke out in Jerusalem and the West Bank yesterday as Palestinians staged a “day of rage” in protest at Israeli plans to build 1,600 new homes in the disputed east of the city.

The announcement of the planned construction caused the worst diplomatic crisis in decades between Israel and its most important ally, the United States. Washington’s envoy, George Mitchell, yesterday abruptly postponed his trip to the region in protest.

Dozens of masked youths pelted Israeli police with rocks and set tyres ablaze at flashpoints across east Jerusalem and nearby checkpoints.

Thousands of police who had been deployed across the city fired stun grenades, teargas and rubber bullets to try to disperse the crowds. Several dozen Palestinians were arrested but gangs of youths continued to lob rocks at Israeli forces throughout the day.

[Johann]

Hamas takes on the Islamic extremists. Post war Gaza, has lead to many islamist cells being created. Jund ansar allah is backed by Fatah (Dahlan who is backed by Israel). These islamists began attacking Hamas installations in the strip.

Turning up a year ago , Jund Ansar Allah, , operated in the town of Rafah and denounced the “unnatural alliance” between Sunni Hamas and Shi'ite Iran, deemed “abominable”. Jund Ansar Allah is operating with the backing of Dahlan (Fatah) to get rid of Hamas. Having failed to get a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas, Egyptian intel minister also has begun supporting islamists. Egypt and West Bank are providing support to these islamists against Hamas. Hamas intel investigating this found the links to Dahlan gang.

A group attacked Dahlans relatives wedding in Gaza. Hamas blamed JundAnsarAllah although hamas was reportedly suspected.

Dahlan is also supporting Islamic Jihad and Army of Islam.

In many ways what has been going on is a civil war *inside* Hamas. Many of the recruits to the Salafi jihadis are defecting Hamas members. There has always been a strong minority salafi jihadi current within Hamas, just like any other Muslim Brotherhood branch.

Hamas has a much better chance of mainstreaming itself ideologically now that these people are out.

[Kati]

posted by some one called "Brea" in response to the yahoo news....

Why Iran smiles on Jerusalem clashes
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20100316/wl_csm/288084

the sooner iran has nuclear weapons the better. only thing israel is capable of understanding is deterrence. israel has run american foreign policy for 40 years. i can only hope this is beginning to change. there is NOTHING to be gained from supporting israel. the country has and continues to use america to suit it's need exslisively.
get the jews out of our countries finances as well: i.e. goldman suchs, the fed, all primary employees are from gpoldmansuchs, as well as the SEC. how do you enforce compliance when all the employees are from goldman? it's regarded as politically incorrect to mention the collusion between these firms.
the association is UNDENIABLE!!

who owns the mainstream media? ever wonder why the tilt is so predictable and consistent?

Gerald Levin, CEO and Director of AOL Time Warner
Michael Eisner, Chairman and CEO of the Walt Disney Company
Edgar Bronfman, Sr., Chairman of Seagram Company Ltd
Edgar Bronfman, Jr, Pres. and CEO of Seagram Company Ltd and head of Universal Studios
Sumner Redstone, Chairman and CEO of Viacom, Inc
Dennis Dammerman, Vice Chairman of General Electric
Peter Chernin, President and Co-COO of News Corporation Limited

Those seven Jewish men collectively control ABC, NBC, CBS, the Turner Broadcasting System, CNN, MTV, Universal Studios, MCA Records, Geffen Records, DGC Records, GRP Records, Rising Tide Records, Curb/Universal Records, and Interscope Records.Replies (7)

[shyamd]

Dealing with the Arabs

G Parthasarathy

Ministers and officials are required to be seen and not heard, except when specifically authorised to speak publicly while accompanying the Prime Minister on official visits abroad. It is a pity that Mr Shashi Tharoor chose to pontificate on substantive issues even before Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met Saudi Arabia’s monarch, King Abdullah, in Riyadh, stirring up avoidable controversy during this important bilateral visit.

Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in the world, located in a turbulent region from where two-thirds of the world’s oil supplies come. Around 1.8 million Indians live in Saudi Arabia and contribute to the $ 55 billion that Indian expatriates remit annually. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has agreed to a strategic partnership with India which will cover not only enhanced oil supplies but also promote closer ties in areas ranging from defence and space technology to investment in our petrochemical sector, apart from exchange of information on terrorism and money-laundering.

The India-Saudi Arabia summit took place amid new tensions and rivalries in the Gulf region, arising from the deep suspicions that have characterised Persian-Arab rivalries over the centuries. The American invasion of Iraq and the replacement of a Sunni minority Government by a majority Shia-led coalition under Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki have added a new element of bitter Shia-Sunni antagonism to existing Persian-Arab differences.

The Shia majority Government in Iraq complains of Saudi attempts to destabilise it by backing the Sunni-dominated Baath Party found by Saddam Hussein. It has also complained of the attitude of its other Arab Sunni neighbours, Egypt and Jordan. Iran alleges mistreatment of its Haj pilgrims and support for its Opposition by Saudi Arabia.

In Northern Yemen, Saudi Arabian and Yemeni forces are battling an insurgency by Yemen’s Houthi Shias, evidently backed by Iran. Under pressure from Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Arabsat has discontinued facilities for Iran’s Arabic language news and television networks beamed to Arab countries. Fearing Iran, the six-nation Arab Gulf Cooperation Council is allied to the US, which is determined to contain Iran’s regime.

Exacerbating these tensions are concerns arising from Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Despite Iranian denials, its nuclear programme is evidently designed to give it a nuclear weapons capability and keep its nuclear options open. Given the hostility of the Iranian regime to Israel, fomented by intemperate statements by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Israel should be “wiped off the map”, Israel has threatened to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

For the past five months, the US, backed by the UK, France and Germany, has endeavoured to get the UN Security Council to impose “crippling sanctions” on Iran through measures like banning the sale of refined petroleum products to that country. They have also proposed sanctions that would cover Iran’s Central Bank and a number of firms and individuals linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, apart from its shipping, insurance and banking industries. Faced with opposition from Russia and China, the US would inevitably be forced to water down its proposals. Moreover, within the Security Council countries like Brazil and Turkey have made it clear that they do not favour “crippling sanctions” against Iran.

It is not just Israel and the US that are concerned at Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Saudi Arabia and Iran’s other Arab GCC neighbours do not relish the prospect of a nuclear Iran. Moreover, unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia has taken a constructive approach towards a peace settlement in West Asia, which would guarantee Israel’s right to exist in security, side by side with a viable Palestinian state.

Given this background, Mr Manmohan Singh and King Abdullah had no difficulty in agreeing on the need for a ‘two-state solution’ to the West Asian impasse — an issue on which India and Iran have little common ground. While Arab States may make pro forma noises about India’s relations with Israel, the reality is that most of them, including Saudi Arabia, have either overt or covert links with the Jewish state.

But, the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme will not go away and New Delhi will have to keep a close eye on possibilities of Saudi Arabia and others seeking a nuclear umbrella from their Sunni ally, Pakistan. Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister Prince Sultan has visited Pakistan’s nuclear facilities in Kahuta and the redoubtable AQ Khan has been effusively welcomed in the past in Riyadh.

There has to be a measure of realism in India’s relations with major powers in the Gulf region. Despite the best intentions of King Abdullah, concerns do remain about funding of Wahaabi oriented radical Islamic organisations across South Asia by Saudi ‘charities’ and the kingdom has not exactly shown understanding of Indian sensitivities by stewarding OIC moves on Jammu & Kashmir.

Moreover, while India and Saudi Arabia have expressed support for the values enshrined in the Constitution of Afghanistan, it has to be remembered that the kingdom had backed the Taliban and changed its position only because Mullah Omar remained closely allied to Osama bin Laden. One should not presume that Saudi Arabia will remain averse to a return of the Taliban if Mullah Omar is marginalised and the Taliban’s links with Osama bin Laden terminated.

Given the anxiety of Nato countries in Afghanistan to strike a deal with the Taliban, it is imperative that New Delhi retains close ties with Tehran, which shares its aversion for any return of Taliban extremism to Kabul. Finally, Iraq is aiming to increase its oil production from two million barrels per day to 12 million barrels per day in coming years, with Karbala and Najaf re-emerging as major centres of influence in Shia Islam. We have been less than pro-active in building relations with the post-Saddam dispensation in Iraq. (Spot on! I have suggested the OIL factor in my posts too. Expect oil prices to halve once Kurdish oil comes on stream. Iraq is exempt from Opec for a few years. There are 4 blocks in Kurdistan right now which may hold close to 55billion barrels of oil! Thats half of Iraq's current oil reserves) and there are more than 15 or25 oil blocks opening for exploration!)

New Delhi no longer has the luxury of remaining aloof from these developments in its western neighbourhood, as it will be compelled to take positions on these issues when it becomes a non-permanent member of the Security Council later this year. India can position itself to play a more pro-active role in the oil-rich Gulf region by more imaginative diplomacy in coming years. Much more can and should be done for increasing our investment and participation in the exploration, production and utilisation of the oil and gas resources in our western neighbourhood.

Excellent article with realistic interpretation of what is happening in that neighbourhood. Well done.

[ramana]

I was with him till he said KSA will seek TPS nuke umbrella. Thats a riot. Borrowed and purloined stuff to be waved at whom? Iran?

Next he lost me when he recommends India have a role in Shia dominated Iraq. This ignores the fact that the El-Maliki govt does not control its own policies yet.

And if KSA is anxious about India's support of Shia Iran how will it react to Indian support of Shia Iraq?

[Prem]

http://beta.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 248387.ece
India will be a dominant player in South Asia, Middle East

India’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean and proud martial traditions will make it a dominant player in South Asia and the Middle East in the next 25 years, a Pentagon report has said.US Joint Forces Command in its latest report of emerging geopolitical and technological trends, which estimates their potential impact on future military operations, said it will likely have a role to play as America encourages the growth of India as a regional and even global power.
“India has a special place in the future international environment. Few countries in the world may figure as prominently in future US strategic calculations,” a ‘Joint Operating Environment (JOE) 2010’ report released on Tuesday said.“India’s military will receive substantial upgrades in the coming years. That fact, combined with its proud martial traditions and strategic location in the Indian Ocean, will make India the dominant player in South Asia and the Middle East,” the report said.In the next 25 years, the report said relative balance of power between states will shift, some growing faster than the US and many states weakening relative to the US.Noting that India could more than quadruple its wealth over the course of the next two decades, ( wrong as quadrupling of wealth will happen much much earlier)but large swaths of its population would likely to remain in poverty through the 2030s, it said “like China, this will create tensions between the rich and the poor.”

[chetak]

I was with him till he said KSA will seek TPS nuke umbrella. Thats a riot. Borrowed and purloined stuff to be waved at whom? Iran?

Their predominant fear is Israel. Like Iran, they also fund anti Israeli state and non state actors.

They full well know that even the US cannot completely control an aroused and inflamed Israel that sees any threat to its existence.

Iran also sees Israel as a major threat. But it will never first use a nuke either against the saudis or the Israelis. The americans and the EU will nuke it out of existence. Iran wants the nukes purely as a deterrent.

[ramana]

I was with him till he said KSA will seek TPS nuke umbrella. Thats a riot. Borrowed and purloined stuff to be waved at whom? Iran?

Their predominant fear is Israel.

They full well know that even the US cannot completely control an aroused and inflamed Israel that sees any threat to its existence.

If so then TSP is in no position to offer an umbrella against Israel, even a phata one.

[chetak]

If so then TSP is in no position to offer an umbrella against Israel, even a phata one.

It's very true but who is to say so?

The pakis have convinced the saudis that they can provide the nuke umbrella and have already taken much money from them.

The Israelis will first take out the pakis before taking out the saudis, if push comes to shove.

[ramana]

KSA is already under US umbrella. Their support to TSP's acquring nukes is related to intra Islam jockeying (Sunni-Shia). Infact they would have funded the TSP even without any umbrella offers.

BTW, TSP stationed a division or so in KSA during the Iraq-Iran wars. Supposedly to protect the holy sites. When the Iraqis were facing reverses the KSA wanted these troops to be sent to frontlnes. Zia mia demurred saying the troops were for protecting holy sites (aka collect baksheesh). Saudis said the frontlines are where teh troops are needed and if you cant send them there then they have no place in KSA. So they were sentback to TSP. All this is 1987 Nov-Dec.

And during First Gulf War, the TSP was on the fence, cheering for Saddam while KSA was getting scudded.

[Surya]

The pakis have convinced the saudis that they can provide the nuke umbrella and have already taken much money from them.

The Israelis will first take out the pakis before taking out the saudis, if push comes to shove.

How??? unlike Iran the pakis have something to throw back and it will land somewhere

[Johann]

The Saudis only trust what they own. They own the Pakistani nuclear capability - they and the UAE footed most of the bill.

The Americans are too independent for the Saudis tastes - and too tainted by Jewish/Israeli influence. This isn;t just something the Saudis felt acutely after the US insistance on invading Iraq in 2003 despite Saudi warnings; it is a feeling they frequently had in the 1970s and 1980s as well.

Anyone remember the great AWACS struggle?

[chetak]

The pakis have convinced the saudis that they can provide the nuke umbrella and have already taken much money from them.

The Israelis will first take out the pakis before taking out the saudis, if push comes to shove.

How??? unlike Iran the pakis have something to throw back and it will land somewhere

Even during kargil, the pakis were fearful of an Israeli attack mounted from an Indian airbase.

There is really no accounting for paki thought.

[Carl_T]

Pardon the n00b question, but why do Israel and Pakistan belong in the same sentence/scenario? They have no diplomatic relations, no border issues, Pakistan doesn't even train Hamas/Hezbollah bombers. What does Pak have to fear from Israel? Or what interest does Israel have in Pakistan?

[chetak]

Pardon the n00b question, but why do Israel and Pakistan belong in the same sentence/scenario? They have no diplomatic relations, no border issues, Pakistan doesn't even train Hamas/Hezbollah bombers. What does Pak have to fear from Israel? Or what interest does Israel have in Pakistan?

The pakis are the islamic nuke dadas.

They follow the dictum of enemy of my friend is also my enemy.
As if they didn't already have enough enemies.

How else do they establish their position at the tattered top of the ummah pecking order?

By running a protection racket!!

The Israelis will remove the "root cause" and defang the rest of the ummah.

Incidentally, what enmity does iran have with israel? As you pointed out, no border issues or whatever. Still rabid iranis regularly threaten to wipe Israel off the map.

It's a funny world.

[ArmenT]

What does Pak have to fear from Israel? Or what interest does Israel have in Pakistan?

Remember, these are Pakis we're talking about here. They always blame the eeeeevil juice every time something blows up in Pakiland, judging by the news reports in the Pak press. They aren't big fans of Israel/India/USA relationships. Every now and then, there are news reports in the Paki press about how Israel and India planned to take out their reactors during the eighties, nineties etc.

[chetak]

What does Pak have to fear from Israel? Or what interest does Israel have in Pakistan?

Remember, these are Pakis we're talking about here. They always blame the eeeeevil juice every time something blows up in Pakiland, judging by the news reports in the Pak press. They aren't big fans of Israel/India/USA relationships. Every now and then, there are news reports in the Paki press about how Israel and India planned to take out their reactors during the eighties, nineties etc.

All are evil Zionist yindoo plots onlee.

[shyamd]

I was with him till he said KSA will seek TPS nuke umbrella. Thats a riot. Borrowed and purloined stuff to be waved at whom? Iran?

Ramana ji, yes waved at Iran of course. KSA financed the program and of course, I have reported KSA guys are undergoing training in TSP nuke establishments. KSA has its own program in Khamis Mushayt.

Next he lost me when he recommends India have a role in Shia dominated Iraq. This ignores the fact that the El-Maliki govt does not control its own policies yet.

But Maliki has been fighting for his own policies, some he has won, others he has not. Maliki has openly fought with the US on a few issues.

And if KSA is anxious about India's support of Shia Iran how will it react to Indian support of Shia Iraq?

India is not going to get politically involved, its the usual stuff like Trade & oil. KSA can't complain and if Allawi is winning in Iraq, then KSA will be fine with things. Shia Iraq is a reality and KSA has accepted it.

[shyamd]

Pardon the n00b question, but why do Israel and Pakistan belong in the same sentence/scenario? They have no diplomatic relations, no border issues, Pakistan doesn't even train Hamas/Hezbollah bombers. What does Pak have to fear from Israel? Or what interest does Israel have in Pakistan?

No overt diplomatic relations. But the Mossads aim is to maintain relationships with these islamic countries covertly. Zardari is close with Israel, read my previous posts about the subject.

Israel doesnt want Islamic nukes being transferred.

[Johann]

Pardon the n00b question, but why do Israel and Pakistan belong in the same sentence/scenario? They have no diplomatic relations, no border issues, Pakistan doesn't even train Hamas/Hezbollah bombers. What does Pak have to fear from Israel? Or what interest does Israel have in Pakistan?

There are always two major components to any country's foreign policy - pragmatic national interests, and ideology. Of course ideology itself can be contested and shifting, just like the view of what constitute national interests.

In Pakistan's case their ideological construction of Pakistan is as the defender of the ummah. In particular they have this idea that the wealthy, authentically Islamic, but incompetent Arabs need them, which of course makes them a threat to Israel, and that thus Israel must be constantly plotting evil against Pakistan's sources of strength, like its nuclear programme.

It isn't total fiction - Pakistan's reliance on Arab funding (and thus Arab part-ownership) of its nuclear programme worried the Israelis to the point that they sought cooperation with India to attack Kahuta in the early 1980s. For various reasons the operation was shelved, and after Indira Gandhi's assassination in 1984 it does not appear to have been seriously contemplated again.

The Israeli fallback since then has been to leverage US support and contacts to create a back-channel to the Pakistani state. The ineffectiveness of this strategy is best illustrated by the total Israeli surprise when the US and UK broke the news of Pakistan/KRL's transfer of centrifuges and nuclear weapon blueprints to Libya back in 2003.

The Pakistanis for their part have been happy to keep a quiet relationship with Israel, and avoiding heavy involvement in anti-Israeli jihads in Palestine and Lebanon for realpolitik reasons. The biggest of those is that to do so might cost them their relationship with the US. Plus the Pakistanis have a sneaking admiration of what they see as Israeli supermen.

[shyamd]

Dismantling of Saudi-CIA Web site illustrates need for clearer cyberwar policies

By Ellen Nakashima
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, March 19, 2010

By early 2008, top U.S. military officials had become convinced that extremists planning attacks on American forces in Iraq were making use of a Web site set up by the Saudi government and the CIA to uncover terrorist plots in the kingdom.

"We knew we were going to be forced to shut this thing down," recalled one former civilian official, describing tense internal discussions in which military commanders argued that the site was putting Americans at risk. "CIA resented that," the former official said.

Elite U.S. military computer specialists, over the objections of the CIA, mounted a cyberattack that dismantled the online forum. Although some Saudi officials had been informed in advance about the Pentagon's plan, several key princes were "absolutely furious" at the loss of an intelligence-gathering tool, according to another former U.S. official.

Four former senior U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified operations, said the creation and shutting down of the site illustrate the need for clearer policies governing cyberwar. The use of computers to gather intelligence or to disrupt the enemy presents complex questions: When is a cyberattack outside the theater of war allowed? Is taking out an extremist Web site a covert operation or a traditional military activity? Should Congress be informed?

"The point of the story is it hasn't been sorted out yet in a way that all the persons involved in cyber-operations have a clear understanding of doctrine, legal authorities and policy, and a clear understanding of the distinction between what is considered intelligence activity and wartime [Defense Department] authority," said one former senior national security official.

CIA spokeswoman Marie Harf said, "It's sheer lunacy to suggest that any part of our government would do anything to facilitate the movement of foreign fighters to Iraq."

The Pentagon, the Justice Department and the National Security Agency, whose director oversaw the operation to take down the site, declined to comment for this story, as did officials at the Saudi Embassy in Washington.

Precedent before policy

The absence of clear guidelines for cyberwarfare is not new. The George W. Bush administration was compelled in its final years to refine doctrine as it executed operations. "Cyber was moving so fast that we were always in danger of building up precedent before we built up policy," said former CIA director Michael V. Hayden, without confirming or denying the existence of the site or its dismantling.

Lawyers at the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel are struggling to define the legal rules of the road for cyberwarriors, according to current and former officials.

The Saudi-CIA Web site was set up several years ago as a "honey pot," an online forum covertly monitored by intelligence agencies to identify attackers and gain information, according to three of the former officials. The site was a boon to Saudi intelligence operatives, who were able to round up some extremists before they could strike, the former officials said.

At the time, however, dozens of Saudi jihadists were entering Iraq each month to carry out attacks. U.S. military officials grew concerned that the site "was being used to pass operational information" among extremists, one former official said. The threat was so serious, former officials said, that Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, requested that the site be shut down.

The operation was debated by a task force on cyber-operations made up of representatives from the Defense and Justice departments, the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the National Security Council. Lt. Gen. Keith B. Alexander, who directs the National Security Agency, made a presentation.

Unintended outcomes

A central challenge of cyberwarfare is that an attacker can never be sure that an action will affect only the intended target. The dismantling of the CIA-Saudi site inadvertently disrupted more than 300 servers in Saudi Arabia, Germany and Texas, a former official said. "In order to take down a Web site that is up in Country X, because the cyber-world knows no boundaries, you may end up taking out a server that is located in Country Y," the task force participant explained.

After the operation, Saudi officials vented their frustration about the loss of intelligence to the CIA. Agency officials said the U.S. military had upset an ally and acted outside its authority in conducting a covert operation, former officials said.

Efforts were made to mollify the Saudis and the Germans, they said. "There was a lot of bowing and scraping," one official said.

One early advocate for using cyber-operations against extremists was Gen. John P. Abizaid, former Central Command chief. He told a Senate committee in 2006, "We must recognize that failing to contest these virtual safe havens entails significant risk to our nation's security and the security of our troops in the field."

But some experts counter that dismantling Web sites is ineffective -- no sooner does a site come down than a mirror site pops up somewhere else. Because extremist groups store backup copies of forum information in servers around the world, "you can't really shut down this process for more than 24 or 48 hours," said Evan F. Kohlmann, a terrorism researcher and a consultant to the Nine/Eleven Finding Answers Foundation.

"It seems difficult to understand," he added, "why governments would interrupt what everyone acknowledges now to be a lucrative intelligence-gathering tool."

Staff writers Dana Priest and Karen DeYoung contributed to this report.

[abhishek_sharma]

Saudi support to Kashmir solution reiterated

http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=229896

Saudi Arabia has reiterated that it would continue to support the solution of the Kashmir dispute under the framework of the United Nations’ resolutions and in accordance with the aspirations of the people of the area.

The assurance came from the visiting Deputy Saudi Minister Dr Abdul Aziz bin Abdullah Al-Ammar while talking to The News at the Saudi House, where Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan Abdul Aziz bin Ibrahim Saleh Al-Ghadeer hosted a dinner in the honour of the visiting delegation.

[Surya]

chetak

Paki fears aside - I do not see a realistic Israeli ability to take our paki nukes on their own

also Paki paronoia is a joint Israel India raid

[Philip]

Shyam is right.Israel's fear is not a relatively stable Islamic govt. with nukes,but one like Iran,where an element of uncertainity exists in not knowing whether that country will pass on nukes to the Hiz,Hamas,etc.

However,the recent public spat between Israel and the US seems to be over with secret understandings reached,perhaps over military action against Iran.It is why two things are happening.The US rolling out the red carpet for Pak and giving it a massive dose of aid and weaponry and the delivery to Diego Garcia of huge qtys. of bunker-buster bombs which were earlier used against Iraq's underground facilities.With Pak assuring the US of action on Af-Pak,making it possible for an attcak against Iran.The recent elections in Iraq have also been timed so that that country can be similarly kept quiet.Who will be the anti-American spoiler though?The ISI seems to have caved in to US interests for a quid-pro-quo on India (free rein for its minions),hence the Headley deal.What is very clear from the global scenario is that India and Indian interests have been dumped by the US.

[shyamd]

DNW: Obama ends Israel's Gulf presence
Israeli special forces trained Gulf troops opposite Iran for two years.

Saudis say no to Obama
No US bases without clarity on policy to abort Iranian nuke.

Washington steps back
Netanyahu could not afford to surrender on Jerusalem or Iran.
-----------------
Seminar on India, Oman ties

A seminar will be held in connection with the visit of Jewel of Muscat at Hotel Taj Malabar on Sunday.

The seminar, which will mainly discuss the cultural and literary relationship between India and Sultanate of Oman, will be inaugurated by Union Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor.

Vice-Admiral K N Susheel of Southern Naval Command will preside over the function. Omani Ambassador Sheik Humaid Ali Bin Sultan Almani will deliver the special address.

----------------------
Anil Kakodkar to grace Science India Fiesta

The annual event Science India Fiesta 2010 organised by Science India Forum (SIF), Muscat will be held on April 8 and 9.

The first day’s event will be held at the Indian School Wadi Kabir and the main event will be held on April 9 at the Al Falaj Hotel.

Science and technology seminars, essay competitions, exhibitions and quiz shows are part of the two-day event.

The winners of the Sastra Pratibha contest will be honoured during the event.

The theme chosen for this year is non-conventional energy and apart from eminent scientists from India, this year Omani officials are expected to participate in the event.

Video conference

Live video conferencing from India during some of the sessions is also being planned.

The competitions in digital symposium, debate, science skit, quiz and science exhibitions and cultural programmes will be some of the highlights of the two-day event.

SIF works in close cooperation with the Vigyan Bharati
India and Indian Institute of
Scientific Heritage and the event is held under the patronage of the Embassy of Indian, Muscat.

The objective of this forum is to popularise science and imbibe scientific temper among youngsters and also familiarise the children with the rich and scientific heritage of India.

Announcing the details at a press conference, C. N. P. Nampoothri, convenor of SIF informed that renowned nuclear scientist Dr Anil Kakodkar, former chairman of Atomic Energy Commission will be the chief guest.

Dr Kakodkar will also receive the award instituted in the memory of Dr A.S.G. Jayakar of Indian Medical Science who worked in Muscat from 1870 to 1900 and did pioneering work in natural science research and linguistics.

Shri Chand, counsellor, Culture and Community Welfare Wing and head of Chancery, Embassy of India; C. R. Prasannan, chairman of SIF and Aravindan, general convenor of SIF were also present at the conference.

Spirit of science

Shri Chand, counsellor, “this is a great initiative to keep the spirit of science following”.

Meanwhile, the winners of the Sastra Pratibha contest (Science Talent Search exam) conducted in September 2009 were also announced (See Box).

Dr Anil Kakodkar will give away prizes to the budding
science talents.

The contest is being held since the academic year
2004-05. “This contest has become so popular among the Indian schools students that this year the number of contestants reached 3,000. When we started in 2004 we only had 342 participants,” Nampoothri said.

The contest is conducted in four categories; sub junior, junior, sub-senior and senior and top ranking two students from each standard from five to 12 are selected as
Sastra Pratibha.

Dr V. R. Rajasekaran Pillai, vice-chancellor of Indira Gandhi National Open University (IGNOU); Dr Vijay Bhatkar, computer scientist; Dr G. Madhavan Nair, former chairman of Isro; Maneka Gandhi, member of Indian parliament and former federal minister and Dr Kasturirangan, former chairman of Isro were the chief guests in the previous years.
......

Step forward on peaceful nuke talks?

[Suppiah]

What the post above describe? Is it a link to something? What is DNW?

[shyamd]

www.debka.com: Their weekly special newsletter Debka Net Weekly.

[Suppiah]

http://www.debka.com: Their weekly special newsletter Debka Net Weekly.

Thanks but it is premium content :-(

[shyamd]

Will post what it says later.

-----------
Reports that KSA - US relationship is severely strained on Iran. The Gates and King Abdullah, CP Sultan, Prince Muqrin dinner got tempers flaring a little on Iran and Eraaq.

--------------
Rumours that KSA intel was involved in an unsuccessful attempt on PM Maliki's life in order to allow Allawi to win. Maliki sent his top advisor to Tehran in response. Elections on going. Allawi has started to ask Supreme Council of Iraq leader to join his coalition.

------------
Rumour that Hosni may have cancer.

[Carl_T]

Remember, these are Pakis we're talking about here. They always blame the eeeeevil juice every time something blows up in Pakiland, judging by the news reports in the Pak press. They aren't big fans of Israel/India/USA relationships. Every now and then, there are news reports in the Paki press about how Israel and India planned to take out their reactors during the eighties, nineties etc.

In Pakistan's case their ideological construction of Pakistan is as the defender of the ummah. In particular they have this idea that the wealthy, authentically Islamic, but incompetent Arabs need them, which of course makes them a threat to Israel, and that thus Israel must be constantly plotting evil against Pakistan's sources of strength, like its nuclear programme.

It isn't total fiction - Pakistan's reliance on Arab funding (and thus Arab part-ownership) of its nuclear programme worried the Israelis to the point that they sought cooperation with India to attack Kahuta in the early 1980s. For various reasons the operation was shelved, and after Indira Gandhi's assassination in 1984 it does not appear to have been seriously contemplated again.

Due to religious differences Pakistan cannot be close to Iran, but considering Pakistan has no cultural or ethnic similarity how does it manage to link itself to the Arab nations in this way? I don't think the Arabs reciprocate that sympathy towards Pakistan in their struggle against the yindus. On this forum we compare Turkey to Pakistan, but Turkey doesn't see the Arab nations in the same way as Pak.

[shyamd]

Had an interesting conversation with a KSA based RAPE. Folks, Is TSP navy deployed in sea of Aden on anti piracy missions?

Was informed of TSP role in operations against Houthi rebels. TSP F-16's have been involved in operations there. Apparently, KSA MI gave incorrect co-ordinates to TSPAF, one village on KSA side had KSA army there, and coordinates was for a village on the Yemeni side. KSA accidentally gave the wrong coordinates, co-ordinates for the KSA side village. So F-16 bombs the wrong village and they couldnt establish communications with the KSA team on the ground apparently. KSA offered to pay double to TSP.

------
A relative of theirs had been kidnapped many years ago by govt. Relative was a wealthy businessman. H.Gul who was chief at teh time was in KSA, friend met him enquiring about this relative. Gul got on the phone, reply came "bhai, Please don't mention his name to any member of the military or anyone connected to the govt again. I can tell you that he is not alive but won't tell you how he died or in what circumstances. Just forget about seeing him again." "They are not even telling me how he died". Apparently this relative was mixed up with Zia ul Haq and was quite powerful, and disappearance had something to do with his assassination he says.

Makes you wonder if IG is not being told things, who really is in control?

-------------------
India to attract more Saudi students

By K.S. RAMKUMAR | ARAB NEWS

Published: Mar 20, 2010 23:43 Updated: Mar 20, 2010 23:43
---------------------------
Will they now be smoked out of the Gulf?

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The arrest of Shammy Firoz by the National Investigating Agency will add momentum to the extradition process of the other terror links operating from West Asian countries. But the major hurdle is that only a few among them figure in the chargesheets filed in terror-related cases. The role of others has come to light during the interrogation of those arrested.

Topping the list of the wanted is C A M Basheer, former national president of Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI). Hailing from Aluva, Basheer appeared on the radar of the security agencies during the probe into the Mumbai serial blasts in 1993. All efforts to nab him came to a naught. Basheer is suspected to be the main source of funding.

Sources say Basheer has shifted his base from Sharjah to Saudi Arabia recently. He was using the off-campus centres of some universities in Kerala in the Gulf as a cover for recruiting new cadres.

It is believed that Basheer possesses a Canadian passport.

Shuhaib of Parappanangadi, now in Dubai, is another important link in the terror network. Little is known about his whereabouts now. He was the leader of SIMI at a private college in Thirurangadi and was the one who arranged the meeting between Sainudheen alias Sattar Bhai and Indian Mujahidheen leader Riyaz Bhatkal. Shuhaib had also provided funds to Sainudheen.

K P Sabir alias Ayub, who escorted the five youths from Kerala to the terror camp in Kupwara, is also believed to be operating from the Gulf. His was last traced to Bahrain and is a suspect in the blast at Ernakulam Collecorate last year.

Hailing from Kannur, Sabir is a close associate of Thadiyantavide Nazeer. Both are accused in cases related to the murder conspiracy against former chief minister E K Nayanar and planting a bomb at the Coimbatore Press Club. Azhar from Panur and K P Yusuf from Kannur, both accused in the twin-blast case in Kozhikode, are also in the Gulf. Umer Farooq, an accused in the terror training case and the Kalamassery bus burning case, is also suspected to have escaped to the Gulf.

Lot of these Gulf based businessmen have got Permanent residency in Canada. Looks like this guy has lived in Canada. Basheer must have some serious cash (wealthy!)

[shyamd]

Kashmiri delegation to visit Kingdom

[shyamd]

Some conversations I am hearing:
US defence secretary Robert Gates was in Abu Dhabi for talks with Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed. Gates reportedly pushed for measures to be taken against some Iranian firms doing business in the UAE. This pissed off Ahmadinejad who went on a rant.

------------------------------
Foilks, expect to see lots of changes in KSA. rumours around that there are feelers being sent to municipal councils to see if they are okay with having female colleagues. Culture minister has responded with a Yes to having a women be an editor to a newspaper - he said this at a gathering in a big book fair in riyad. Justice minister said he is open to having women become advocates in cases involving families. Since CP Sultan is back King Abdullah is being a bit cautious on his moves on reform.

King Abdullah is changing things slowly rather than quickly and it is govt and society wide. Religious leaders are now calling on accepting sectarian coexistance as well as accepting the role of diff sects of islam.

There was an art gallery in Riyad, women and men mingled freely, with relaxed dresscodes by KSA standards. Some hardline cleric made some harsh comments and issued a fatwa on mixing of sexes. This actually helped King Abdullah's gradual approach as media, public came out more critical against the hardline guys.

They are also calling on human rights to be put into the judicial system! And some recent cases of domestic violence has resulted in neighbours putting a case against the police for not protecting women and children. Public expectations are rising. Slowly slowly more views on abuses of the Ministry of Interior are being heard. Some shocked Prince Nayef and he ordered some punishments. Its part of King Abdullah's approach of hearing more people's views.

Friends say that KSA Princesses are extremely smart, they have nothing to do other than go to top universities in the UK/US to do their undergrad, masters PhDs.

[Carl_T]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100322/ap_ ... _protest_1

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – It was a startling voice of protest at a startling venue. Covered head-to-toe in black, a Saudi woman lashed out at hard-line Muslim clerics' harsh religious edicts in verse on live TV at a popular Arabic version of "American Idol."

Well, not quite "American Idol": Contestants compete not in singing but in traditional Arabic poetry. Over the past episodes, poets sitting on an elaborate stage before a live audience have recited odes to the beauty of Bedouin life and the glories of their rulers or mourning the gap between rich and poor.

[D Roy]

by the way, just for reference

Yemen is 47 per cent Shia.

When we think of the middle east somehow our mind immediately settles on the image of a Sunni bedouin. we tend to forget just how shia the middle east ( i.e persian + arab) really is.

And in the absence of Saddam the balance of power has clearly tilted to the Shias.

Now wonder Turkey is hosting economic forums and Pakistan is strutting around as usual.