Bharat Rakshak

Gilgit Baltistan to China

What should Indias response be ?

Recognize Taiwan and Tibet

https://archive.ph/f15Ff
Robert D. Kaplan

Europe has always been defined and influenced by its periphery, and it has shifted its position on the map accordingly.
The American historian Henry Adams famously wrote more than a century ago that the fundamental challenge of Europe was and would remain how to integrate Russia’s various lands into what he called the “Atlantic combine.”

Expansion, writes Tony Judt, the late historian of postwar Europe, is part of the “foundation myth” of the European Union. From the start, the EU was a highly ambitious enterprise, gradually encompassing former Carolingian, Prussian, Habsburg, Byzantine, and Ottoman domains, each with its own separate history and development pattern. In other words, Europe must always find a way to be larger than itself, to be forward-deployed, so to speak: to be continually ambitious. For if Europe’s influence is not strongly felt in its frontier zones, adversaries like Russia will constantly threaten.

The East has, in fact, laid the basis for much of today’s Europe. The Slav migration from inner Asia into Europe from the 5th through 7th centuries created the human bedrock for states from Poland south to the Balkans. The Magyar migration from the Urals in the 9th century created Hungary. Later came the impinging forces of Ottoman Turks and Russian tsars, with the Ottomans under military leader Kara Mustafa reaching the gates of Vienna in the late 17th century and Russia under Peter the Great conquering the Baltic Sea region in the same period. Europe has often changed based on eruptions from its periphery.

Actually, the greatest and most dramatic upheaval to the map of Europe occurred in late antiquity, and it also came from the East. The Persian empire of the Sassanids, by clashing with the Byzantine Empire—and thus weakening them both—allowed for the Arab conquest of not just the Middle East, but the entire southern shore of the Mediterranean. Once Arabs arrived in North Africa, Europe gradually moved north and away from the Mediterranean, and took on a colder, Franco-Germanic face, culminating in medieval Christendom, as Germanic peoples including the Goths and Lombards created the demographic and cultural building-blocks of the West.

Fernand Braudel, the great French geographer of the mid-20th century, even hinted that the Mediterranean was not actually Europe’s southern border. Europe, in his view, ended only where the Sahara Desert began. That is, the great cities and coastal populations of Arab North Africa and the Levant were intrinsically part of Europe. The Mediterranean was a connector, not a divider. Once this history is understood, the implications for the 21st century are enormous. For even a Ukraine integrated into Europe may not be the greatest influencer on the continent’s destiny in the coming decades.

Yet the spirit of Braudel’s broader argument—that the formation of Europe is determined by events in its periphery and far beyond—has returned with a vengeance in this hyper-global age.

Geography constitutes more than fatalism. It can also proclaim a moral message. The message of both the Mediterranean Basin and the adjoining Black Sea that borders Ukraine is universalism: seas that unite different civilizations. The original idea of the EU runs parallel to this: emphasizing the sanctity of the individual over that of the group and of legal states rather than of ethnic nations; in other words, the constitutional safeguarding of individual rights in a cosmopolitan universe. Until the EU’s decadelong economic crisis, its mission was to expand both east and south. For if the lands just beyond the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean, as well as the Black Sea, are in chaos, in the long term there will ultimately be no protection for a northern European fortress in a global world.

The breakup of Yougoslavia brought about by USA sowed the seeds of latterday disintegration of the EU, which let me say, is still a work in progress that we are seeing today.

a bit of history but watch towards the end.. history is a set of lies , why "historians" do half truths

Ricky_v
Very good overview that ties Europe's ppast and potential Future.

Thanks for posting.

As Quigley writes Europe has been repeatedly conquered by its periphery actual and ideas.
Current issue is the resistance to Eastern conquest started with Seven Years War in 1756.
We are still seeing the effects.

nandakumar wrote:The breakup of Yougoslavia brought about by USA sowed the seeds of latterday disintegration of the EU, which let me say, is still a work in progress that we are seeing today.

It was a dumb move to teach the Russians a lesson.
EU is a very old project and won't disintegrate.
As old as Roman Empire.

Need to understand idea and ideology

ramana wrote: Current issue is the resistance to Eastern conquest started with Seven Years War in 1756.

Thank you ramana sir, would you please expand on your point with regards to the 7 years war? That is a very interesting take and i have not encountered any writings in the general current academia exploring the present situation with what was in effect the first (and only ?? in terms of theatres of combat) world war.
The only thing i could remember from memory was that the failed-crusaders teutons who had been deployed to stamp out pagan culture in the baltic / lithuaninan forests had finally become an undeniable great european power replete with a militaristic zeal.

ricky_v wrote:

ramana wrote: Current issue is the resistance to Eastern conquest started with Seven Years War in 1756.

Thank you ramana sir, would you please expand on your point with regards to the 7 years war? That is a very interesting take and i have not encountered any writings in the general current academia exploring the present situation with what was in effect the first (and only ?? in terms of theatres of combat) world war.
The only thing i could remember from memory was that the failed-crusaders teutons who had been deployed to stamp out pagan culture in the baltic / lithuaninan forests had finally become an undeniable great european power replete with a militaristic zeal.

Please start with this and will expand.

Very prescient thread in January 2022

https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status ... cSq3g&s=19

President Kagame Disgraces The Arrogant BBC Again! | Stop Disrespecting Africans

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEBQwEY ... fricaWebTV

Atmavik wrote:

Dilbu wrote:After Germany now Japan has decided to rearm aggressively.

Maybe @suraj San can give better insights but we have been waiting for Japan to leave there pacifism for the past 15 yrs or so . I think what ever they do now will be too little too late.

Sorry for the late response. I don't think Japan is really past its 'pacifism' as you put it. They're aware that the Chinese are a threat, but the JSDF are no pushovers with effectively blue water monitoring and patrolling capability. They remain very closely connected to US forces. However I don't see significant changes in their constitution in this regard but it's possible Kishida will enough of a mandate in the ongoing elections to touch at it.

Japan is fundamentally a country that is too satisfied with what it's already achieved. Pretty much everything just works, regardless of the idiosyncrasies. It's all been set up to work a certain way and there's no interest in changing that - everyone's just supposed to follow along.

https://swarajyamag.com/context/rising- ... earch-poll
Rising Influence: India Gets 28 Per Cent Approval Rate Globally In Pew Research Poll

A median of 28 per cent of respondents across 19 countries — including America, Canada, 11 European nations, five from Asia, and Australia — felt that India’s influence on the global economy was rising.

How the countries fared: India came in at fourth place on the poll.

China ranked at the top with 66 per cent of the respondents acknowledging her rising stature. China has been consolidating its position as an emerging superpower over the last two decades. The rise was particularly evident after President Xi Jinping launched the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Russia came second with 41 per cent.

The US was ranked third, with 32 per cent of the respondents rooting for her. From shoddy handling of the Covid-19 pandemic by the Trump administration, the rise of the China-Russia axis, and the apparent helplessness of the Joe Biden administration in reining in Moscow — there was not enough to say in America’s favour.

Shinzo Abe shot

ricky_v wrote:Shinzo Abe shot

The assassin made a homemade shotgun and even the gun powder was homemade.
So save that bokwas.

ramana wrote:The assassin made a homemade shotgun and even the gun powder was homemade.
So save that bokwas.

The UK press is quoting Japanese sources that say Abe's visit was only arranged the previous day. How come the assassin was aware and prepared in such a short time?

Lets continue in the India-Japan thread.

despite self serving propaganda by the west, here is the result of putin kicking some serious ameriki, EU, and so many other smug western butts

x posted from the Indo japan thread


look at the possible geopolitical and geostrategic implications of the victory of Abe's party and the very real options it opens up for japan

If japan weaponizes and also nuclearizes its defence posture from self defence to an outward looking global aspect and accompanying attitude, it could very well jump start its stagnant economy, light a nationalist fire in the japanese body politik that has long been supressed, almost like what may now happen in germany where they are being heavily penalized, almost ruining their economy and sabotaging growth and social empowerment including prosperity of their people for the objectives and ambitions of players who have no connect either with germany or the german people.

If japan follows this path, germany will not be far behind and the vice versa is also a given certainty. Other large players will tend to follow, each hoping to carve out a specific region of interest with the inevitable run on critical and strategic resources.

This is a long term view with some international repercussions that may play out in the medium term.

With Abe gone, India may no longer find itself among the front rows of the starting grid, as far as the japanese options go.

If it all happens, the cheeni may face serious headwinds with a nuclear japan sitting literally at its throat and confronted with launch scenarios that leave no room for reaction times, and make retaliatory capabilities a very expensive though not unaffordable proposition. cheenis will now find themselves sandwiched between two nuclear capable adversaries

Shinzo Abe's political party wins supermajority in parliamentary elections.

They can now change Japan's US-imposed constitution for the first time since 1945.

This opens the door for Japan to become a military power capable of global leadership.

Looks like Adani has purchased Haifa port in Israel.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 956615.cms

This is how M2M will get operationalized.
Mumbai to the Mediterranean via UAE and KSA.

Or neo Petra

China is getting bolder and louder in its interactions with the US. Let us see what US will do.
US Will "Pay The Price" If Nancy Pelosi Visits Taiwan, China Warns

Beijing: China said Tuesday that the United States will "pay the price" if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan during her Asia trip.
Pelosi was in Malaysia on Tuesday, the second stop in a tour that has sparked rage in Beijing after reports of a potential Taipei visit.

China considers Taiwan its territory and has indicated through repeated warnings that it would view a Pelosi visit as a major provocation.

"The US side will bear the responsibility and pay the price for undermining China's sovereign security interests," foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a regular press briefing in Beijing.

American officials often make discreet visits to Taiwan to show support, but Pelosi would be a higher-profile visitor than any in recent history.

In a call with US President Joe Biden last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned the United States against "playing with fire" on Taiwan.

And China's ambassador to the United Nations, Zhang Hun, said Monday that such a visit would be "very much dangerous, very much provocative".

While the Biden administration is understood to be opposed to a Taiwan stop, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Pelosi was entitled to go where she pleased.

"The speaker has the right to visit Taiwan," he told reporters on Monday.

GERMANY ' ZUBAIR IS A JOURNALIST AND SHOULD NOT BE PERSECUTED FOR WHAT HE SAYS OR WRITES "


https://www.visiontimes.com/2022/06/26/ ... rting.html

German Journalist Criminally Charged, Bank Account Seized, for Deviating From the Official Narrative on Ukraine

Lipp raised eyebrows in March this year, shortly after the Russian invasion, which both she and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin calls a de-Nazification operation, over comments she made in a video that there were no atrocities committed by the Russians and that the Ukrainian hostilities against its own (Russian speaking) citizens over the past eight years should be highlighted.

Lipp further alleged that the Donbas locals supported the Russian troops and celebrated the de-Nazification operation as a liberation.

In her infamous video she uploaded to her Telegram channel, Lipp alleged that the Donbas citizens had been “thankful that Russia finally did something,” she said.

“Finally, the people here have been liberated from the terror that they’ve been experiencing for the last eight years,” under continuous shellings by Ukrainian national army, Lipp added.

The German empire strikes back
However, German authorities would not stand how Lipp, “the mouthpiece of Russian propaganda,” as she’s been referred to by the German “fact checker” KORREKTIV, just kept on disseminating “misinformation.”

Since then, the agency took no half-measures to make life or work impossible for the Hamburg resident.

Soon after the video went viral, Lipp’s YouTube channel was closed, forcing her to move to Telegram. Her PayPal account was also blocked. Then, they came not only for her bank account, but that of her father, a Russian who lives on the Crimean peninsula.

On top of that, the German prosecutor allegedly seized €1,600 from her bank account without further ado or any notice or explanation.


However, apparently inspired by the anti-Russian position of the German government, the Public Prosecutor’s Office has forged a criminal case against Lipp on the justification that she “encourages or tolerates crimes regulated by the Criminal Code,” the Prosecutor stated in a document that Lipp showed in another, recent video.

A special case
The case against Lipp is a peculiar one, nonetheless. Not only is she charged, but she will also not be heard, the letter said.

“At the end of the letter, he says that they are not going to invite me to a hearing because this would ‘disturb the investigations,’ and that is very interesting, so they are chasing me, but they do not want to listen to me,” she said in the video.

Apparently, Lipp is already considered guilty by decree as she is denied her human right to defend her case in court—a novelty in German legal history—at least since the Third Reich succumbed almost eighty years ago.

Another curious feature about the document, Lipp points out, is that one of the pages bears a big capital Z on top. This is remarkable as many Russian tanks and armored vehicles since the incursion have been emblazoned with an elusive capital Z on them.

Since then, the capital Z has become a symbol of support for the Russian operation, and showing the symbol is therefore considered a crime in Germany.

At the end of the video, Lipp asserted, “What is happening to me can happen to all independent journalists and bloggers, and that is why I would like to propose to you, dear colleagues, that we start working together to support each other against the censorship of the West.”


$*CKING HYPOCRITES

Shared some thoughts last night on the Pelosi visit to Taiwan
Blog Link
Twitter Link

Firstly, a bit of history.

The ‘Renegade Province’ of Taiwan actually came into existence as a consequence of the bitter war for domination of China between the Communists led by Mao Zedong and the Nationalists led by Chiang Kai Shek. During the entirety of World War II, it was the Nationalists that fought and fought the Japanese, while Mao conserved his strength by offering only very minor engagements in order to keep the pretense of fighting the invaders.

Naturally, by the time the Japanese were defeated, the Nationalists too were quite weakened. Consequently, it was just a matter of time before Mao was able to rout them and establish full control over mainland China. Chiang Kai Shek had to flee via sea to the island of Formosa.

Thus came about the People’s Republic of China in the mainland, while the Republic of China was established in Formosa, now more popularly known as Taiwan.

Btw, it might be VERY interesting to note that USA was majorly tilted towards Mao in his ‘struggle’ against Chiang in the years immediately before the establishment of the PRC!

But then, who are we to question ‘history’, right?

Especially when the same USA practically forced Taiwan to give up its permanent UNSC seat & Veto to the same Mao!

Anyhow, coming over to the current day and age, it is fairly common knowledge that the People’s Republic of China rapidly transforms into the PARANOID Republic of China if someone even so much as has a dream that Taiwan is an independent country!

Basically, both countries have painted themselves in a corner with no more scope for a diplomatic, or in other words a ‘FACE SAVING’ way out.

(Unless of course there is a major political event back home that demands Pelosi Ji return home post haste!)

All in all, diplomacy has truly and utterly failed. What will decide the issue is the perceived muscle power of the two belligerents now.

Sadly, it has become a zero-sum game due to the extreme positions taken up by both the sides with no scope of a negotiated climbdown!

The lowest hanging fruits are the islands of Matsu and Kinmen that are practically PRC’s to take should they decide to.

Heck, even as early as the 1950s, Mao had shelled Kinmen Islands in order to register his annoyance at the US!

But then, those were the 1950s & these are the 2020s. China under Xi Jinping truly believes that their time has now come. Would they be willing to settle for just this?

The might of the PLA, PLAN and PLAAF that is being built up with great vigour for the past two decades is ‘potentially’ capable of taking much much more than just these low hanging fruits, no?

This is not about Taiwan being a part of PRC or otherwise. No way. This is more about who gets to be the top dog in the years to come. China thinks it is them, while the US disagrees. THIS, folks, is the bottomline!

21 China Fighter Jets Enter Taiwan Air Defence Zone As Nancy Pelosi Visits

Taipei: More than 20 Chinese military planes flew into Taiwan's air defence zone on Tuesday, officials in Taipei said, as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi began her controversial visit to the self-ruled island that Beijing considers its territory.
The island's defence ministry said in a statement on Twitter: "21 PLA aircraft ... entered #Taiwan's southwest ADIZ on August 2, 2022," referring to the air defence identification zone.

Let me record my appreciation for the US for sending Nancy Pelosi. I do hope they have gamed this three or four moves hence. Do NOT want a repeat of the recent sanctions fiasco.

India should alert its northern forces and be prepared to help out the US in any way.

Ukraine War has made the Pivot to Asia futile.

sanjaykumar wrote:Let me record my appreciation for the US for sending Nancy Pelosi. I do hope they have gamed this three or four moves hence. Do NOT want a repeat of the recent sanctions fiasco.

India should alert its northern forces and be prepared to help out the US in any way.

When pentagon say's that this visit is a bad idea. But Pelosi has the right to do as she pleases as the head of the co equal branch of the government.

To me it, the US is playing Biden good and Pelosi bad game.

ramana wrote:Ukraine War has made the Pivot to Asia futile.

Yes, since the beginning of open war in Ukraine. I have been thinking about the G2 idea. Along with how it can come about in the modern international environment.

Forcing Russians and PRC into a tight embrace is one of the ways it can be done. Which is what they are doing itself.

^historically, the White House and the speaker of the house are never not on the same page wrt foreign policy. This is not lost on China.

^^^ A small nitpick. Never is too strong a word here. There have been instances.

During the dying days of Obama administration, the Speaker invited Netanyahu to address Congress despite the Presidential opposition. IIRC, Netanyahu didn't even meet Obama during that visit.

ramana wrote:Ukraine War has made the Pivot to Asia futile.

This pelosi visit was to ease Ally’s(japan, Australia, Taiwan and Korea) concerns about G2

sanjaykumar wrote:^historically, the White House and the speaker of the house are never not on the same page wrt foreign policy. This is not lost on China.

indeed , the WH reaffirmed "one China policy" just before Pelosi visit ..so much drama for nothing

Which one is the "one" , does it specify that PRC administration represents the whole of China landmass or is it just "One China Policy"

Britain must follow Nancy Pelosi’s lead and stand up for Taiwan
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/0 ... nd-taiwan/

Nobody Wants the Current World Order

The world is between orders; it is adrift. The last coherent response by the international system to a transnational challenge came at the London summit of the G-20 in April 2009, when in the wake of the 2008 financial crash, leaders took steps to avert another Great Depression and stabilize the global banking system.

The United States led two orders after World War II: a Keynesian one that was not inordinately interested in how states ran their internal affairs in a bipolar Cold War world , and, after the Cold War, a neoliberal one in a unipolar world that ignored national sovereignty and boundaries where it needed to.
Both orders professed to be “open, rules-based, and liberal,” upholding the values of democracy, so-called free markets, human rights, and the rule of law. In reality, they rested on the dominance and imperatives of U.S. military, political, and economic power.

Major powers exhibit what may be called “revisionist” behavior, pursuing their own ends to the detriment of the international order and seeking to change the order itself.

Many countries are unhappy with the world as they see it and seek to change it to their own advantage. This tendency could lead to a meaner, more contentious geopolitics and poorer global economic prospects. Coping with a world of revisionist powers could be the defining challenge of the years ahead.

Few of the world’s major powers are content with the international order as it exists. As the sole global superpower, the United States is committed to extending President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda under the rubric of “Build Back Better World.” The program’s name itself indicates that the order the United States has presided over so successfully for more than half a century needs improvement. The foreign policy establishment within the United States seems riven by fault lines separating those who preach a modern form of isolationism and restraint and those who have embarked on an ideological quest to divide the world between democracies and autocracies. The United States has turned away from international institutions it built, such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. It has stepped back from its commitments to free trade by withdrawing from agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

But Chinese leaders have yet to present an alternative ideology that attracts others or confers legitimacy to their quest for dominance.

India, which embraced and benefited from the U.S.-led liberal international order after the Cold War, remains a dissatisfied member. Its quest for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council is the most visible example of India’s desire to have a bigger say in the international system, commensurate with its economic and geopolitical weight.

If major powers harbor doubts about the rules-based order, weaker countries have steadily lost faith in the legitimacy and fairness of the international system. This is certainly true of countries in the global South. They have seen the UN, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, G-20, and others fail to act on issues of development and, more urgently, the debt crisis plaguing developing countries—a crisis made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic and food and energy inflation caused by the Ukraine war. According to the IMF, over 53 countries are now at risk of serious debt crises.

Confidence in the pillars of that system is eroding. It has been several years since economic sanctions or military actions against particular countries were taken to the UN Security Council or other multilateral forums for approval. Instead, sanctions regimes and military interventions rely on the force of U.S. or Western power for their efficacy. The fractious nature of major power relations has made international institutions progressively less effective. With international law not constraining the actions of the powerful, the legitimacy of these institutions has steadily declined.

A kind of anarchy is creeping into international relations—not anarchy in the strict sense of the term, but rather the absence of a central organizing principle or hegemon. No single power can dictate the terms of the current order, and the major powers do not subscribe to a clear set of principles and norms; it’s hard to establish the rules of the road when so many countries are on their own paths.


Besides, there is no equivalent to the ideological alternatives posed by the Cold War rivals, the United States and the Soviet Union; nothing like the appeal of communism and socialism to developing countries in the 1950s and 1960s is apparent today. The prime authoritarian, China, does not offer an ideological or systemic alternative but attracts other countries with financial, technological, and infrastructure promises and projects, not principles.

States must learn to cope with this world of revisionist powers, a world between orders, and prepare for an uncertain future. One solution is to turn inward. China, India, the United States, and others have all done so in recent years, stressing self-reliance in one form or another: China’s “dual circulation” model, Biden’s pledge to “build back better,” and India’s commitment under Prime Minister Narendra Modi to pursue atmanirbharta, or self-reliance.

Each problem seems to birth a new acronym. These arrangements are expedient and serve particular ends, and although they might help tighten certain bilateral relationships, they do not come close to resembling the more rigid alliances or blocs of the Cold War era.

Can the ‘Rimland’ Contain China and Russia?

A new Western global strategy is taking shape. Its development was evident during President Biden’s tour in the Middle East—specifically at the July 14 online summit with the quadrilateral I2U2 Group: Israel’s Prime Minister Yair Lapid and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi (the I’s) and the United Arab Emirates’ president Mohamed bin Zayed and Mr. Biden (the U’s).

A U.S.-supported arc of strategic cooperation now stretches from Western to Eastern Eurasia, as a defensive oceanic “Rimland” against the hostile continental powers of Eurasia—China and Russia. Such an approach has a historical pedigree in the grand strategies of Halford John Mackinder (1861-1947) and Nicholas John Spykman (1893-1943), which underpinned British, American and global Western defense policies during World War I, World War II and the Cold War.

Spykman took the opposite view: “Who controls the Rimland rules Eurasia.” Continental empires, including the Soviet Union or an alliance between Moscow and Beijing, can be checked by an American-controlled crescent spreading from the European coast (Western and Mediterranean Europe) through the Middle East (the Arab-Turkish-Persian world) to the monsoon lands (South and East Asia).
Spykman’s grand strategy proved highly effective, and highly compatible with such additional strategic dimensions as nuclear deterrence or access to oil, even if it was subject to revision time and again. It initially translated into four regional alliances, complemented by bilateral U.S. alliances or agreements with Spain, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan and South Korea.

ricky_v wrote:Can the ‘Rimland’ Contain China and Russia?

[/u][/b]

Spykman took the opposite view: “Who controls the Rimland rules Eurasia.” Continental empires, including the Soviet Union or an alliance between Moscow and Beijing, can be checked by an American-controlled crescent spreading from the European coast (Western and Mediterranean Europe) through the Middle East (the Arab-Turkish-Persian world) to the monsoon lands (South and East Asia).
Spykman’s grand strategy proved highly effective, and highly compatible with such additional strategic dimensions as nuclear deterrence or access to oil, even if it was subject to revision time and again. It initially translated into four regional alliances, complemented by bilateral U.S. alliances or agreements with Spain, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan and South Korea.

cant live without it

thats all good., it would force China and Russia to seek out allies as well ., as I mentioned before India stands as one of the fulcrums where geopolitics will be played out