Levant crisis - III

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 17 Aug 2016 20:28

Do they need to fly in all the ordinance from Russia? IRIAF probably has stockpiles of bombs for their Su24s that could be adapted to fit on Backfire pylons, perhaps a loan arrangement could be worked out.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 17 Aug 2016 22:07

This is the IInd base Roos has set up in the ME. Putin finally snares one more client before Obama goes out.

Heartland pushing back against Rimland. NATO must be left scratching their heads at what is going on.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 18 Aug 2016 01:32

nato is preparing for trexit (turk exit)

Bheeshma · Post by **Bheeshma** » 18 Aug 2016 01:39

If US keeps supporting Kurds YPG or Peshmerga then turdexit will occur soon.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 18 Aug 2016 04:47

nato is preparing for trexit (turk exit)

I'm struggling to understand if this is intended or unintended consequence for chacha. Chacha has incentive in staying and growing its presence in curdish area and Ruskies may be indifferent as Syria is stablished as one nation again. Regardless, Erdo is seeing writing on the wall, recognizing that siding with chacha means flourishing curdish region and a future threat due to parts of curdish-turkey breaking away (however remote that possibility may be). Seeing better odds by sticking with poo-teen, and potential trexit.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Aug 2016 05:34

iran and turkey has reached a tacit agreement against the formation of rojava in syria ...

syria backed off on the tabqah and palmyra offensives mostly for lack of resources but partly also to free up ISIS to go fall upon SDF and FSA instead.

its a lose-lose situation for US - whatever it does, someone will be angry. only Barzani clique in iraqi kurdistan is firmly with the US (oil lobby), but being a consumate khiladi I am sure he has track2 channels with turkey also and does not mind selling the PKK & YPG down the river if it suits his interests.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Aug 2016 05:41

Rudradev wrote:Do they need to fly in all the ordinance from Russia? IRIAF probably has stockpiles of bombs for their Su24s that could be adapted to fit on Backfire pylons, perhaps a loan arrangement could be worked out.

it has taken this long to sign the agreement for a base in iran despite the advantages being obvious since russia entered the war in Sept 2015. iran may have been cautious regarding degree of Rus engagement with the war and whether they are willing to stick around.
drawing upon IRIAF could take more time as people will need to check the inventory levels and vintages.

industrial scale bombing of 150 tons a day across 100s of small bombs needs a massive logistical effort when in expeditionary mode. it tends to get hidden when the US does it, because they have large pre-positioned stockpiles in places like the gulf and diego and large scale airlift & sealift to make it look smooth. but before a B52 takes off, a good amt of work is involved including lining up refuelers for the long loiter missions and drones to locate and monitor targets.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Aug 2016 09:08

kurds dominate the eastern parts of turkey esp the strategic borders with armenia (who love them as they hate turks) and georgia(who are pro turkey and anti russia) ... their birth rate is much higher than the sunni turks. the enthusiastic political troops of erdogan mainly sunni have come down very hard on the shia alevis who form some 25% of the turkish pop and were relatively well integrated and neutral with good womens rights.

if the alevis too become disgruntled, and start running with the kurds it will be tough on turkey to hold itself together...

the religious doctrine of the shia alevis is quite similar to the syrian alawis btw - both do not fast on ramzan month, have good womens rights and do not see hajj as compulsory.... probably some more older religion who attached itself to the shia pantheon to hide under the radar and survive.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Aug 2016 09:19

syrians have taken back 1/3 of the gap lost on SW aleppo front (the 1070 housing distt) and are plastering the remainder 2/3 on a hourly basis with shells and bombs . the jihadis cannot concede this and retreat as its the gap they opened into south aleppo. they are hiding in bunkers and tunnels but inevitably over time these things will suffer direct hits and continue to attrit their numbers. reinforcements have to come in over relatively open farmland subject to artillery and ATGM fire directed by spotters.

to avoid casualties the syrians will take their time since monkey is trapped with one arm inside the aleppo jar now....i would give it 2 weeks and we will have 1500 jihadi bodies in the pile and end to their aleppo play.

meantime ISIS has opened a new front and attacked the long dormant area near Kuweires airbase in NW ... near Al-Bab, while SDF is preparing to fall upon Al-Bab from the east now that they have finished up Manbij. taking Al Bab will cut ISIS into two halves and the northern half will be caught between SAA, turkic jihadis and kurds

Al Bab and Deir Hafr remain the last two ISIS dens in north syria now. the border area of Jarablus will be smacked soon enough.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Aug 2016 10:55

Rus armour division on exercise in caucasus - drone footage
https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/stat ... 7584813056

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Aug 2016 10:56

Dr Partizan
‏@DrPartizan_
City of Hesekê right now as fierce clashes ongoing between Rojava forces and pro Syrian regime forces .

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 18 Aug 2016 16:48

http://warontherocks.com/2016/08/washin ... -and-iraq/
Washington’s Sunni Myth and the Civil Wars in Syria and Iraq

If you read Western media outlets, including War on the Rocks, you might think that most of the problems in the Middle East can be traced to Sunni disenfranchisement, especially in Syria and Iraq. The broader Western debate about the ongoing civil wars in the Middle East is plagued by a false understanding of sectarian identities. Washington elites imagine a broader Sunni sense of identity that does not exist outside the confines of Saudi Arabia and territories held by jihadist groups. This has the malign effect of encouraging polices that add fuel to the fires consuming Syria and parts of Iraq. Alongside this narrative exists another that portrays Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces as bloodthirsty sectarian militias engaged in constant abuses against Iraq’s Sunni Arabs — but this is simply not the case.

Some American analysts have accepted the shrill claims of those who purport to represent the Sunni Arab world, such as Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir. They have accepted the sectarian victimization narrative as articulated by Syrian insurgents and their spokesmen — as if these voices represented the majority of Syrian people or even most Syrian Sunnis. They have accepted appeals for support from the angriest Iraqi Sunni rejectionists, as if giving in to their demands would push them to fight ISIL or move toward reconciliation to Iraq. By rejectionists, I mean those, whether Baathist or Islamist, who do not accept the new order and instead seek to overthrow it. Based on my years living and working in the Middle East, these voices do not represent those they claim to speak for. The Saudis’ only appeal to other Arabs is the money they have to offer. The Syrian rebel spokesmen represent only a fraction of Syrian Sunnis. The self-appointed Iraqi Sunni leaders control neither men nor territory. The United States is listening to the wrong Sunnis. When President Obama or Gen. David Petraeus or others repeat the myths of disenfranchisement these voices propagate, they reinforce and legitimize a dangerous sectarian narrative that should instead be countered.

An important observation:

Effective insurgents are organically connected with their communities and place great emphasis on their well-being. This is often because they need communities to provide resources, shelter, and other forms of support. If a group is financed from outside the country, it can operate independent of these concerns and impose a reign of terror on a community or ignore the fact that its actions lead to the community’s destruction.

I would amend that to "if a group is financed from outside the country, or by the deep state, etc.".

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 18 Aug 2016 17:16

BBC is highlighting a sob story from syria
Looks like the Syrian opposition is in dire trouble and looking for outside support via sympathy!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Aug 2016 19:03

yes desperate efforts in cnn as well by frontpaging the pic of a wounded boy..never mind the west supported jihadis have been using hell cannons to kill and wound people in YPG and Govt parts of the city for ages now.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 18 Aug 2016 20:20

^^ they specifically said Syrian & Russian air forces are targeting hospitals and civilians, instantly it was understood IS is caught in Aleppo w pants down.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Aug 2016 20:27

a character named al muhaysini leads the flock of 20+ AQ/non-IS jihadis in that sector. he even crawled into aleppo after the gap opened to walk the streets and greet his constituents.
his motivational speech to the troops pre-attack was full of virgins.

enjoy the subtitles

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Aug 2016 20:43

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... medan-base

Basing at TFB.3 dramatically reduces the time and distance to targets, considerably cutting operational costs and saving on service life of the attacking aircraft. It also allows for a considerable increase in the weapons load on a typical mission. Operating out of TFB.3, a Tu-22M3 can take up to 12 tons of bomb, drop them on Deir Ezzor (distance to target 700 km), Palmyra (900 km) or Aleppo (1000 km) and return to Hamedan on internal fuel. If necessary, a Tu-22M3 can additionally take nine OFAB-250-270s on each of four external rack, bringing their grand total to 69, and drop them on targets along the Euphrates river. Alternatively, the bomber can take 42 FAB-500M62s, each weighing 1,100 pounds.

The VKS seems to have started using the Tu-22M3M version of the bomber, a recent upgrade with newer, more precise navigation and sighting systems,for Syrian airstrikes. The “M3M” is believed to have a new passive electronically scanned array radar modeled from that in use on the Su-30SM and Su-35S.

A Tu-22M3M is useful as a lead aircraft for older bombers in a formation, enabling more accurate “carpet bombing” for the entire group. Overall, the efficiency and lethality of Russian aviation in Syria has received a considerable boost, which may soon prompt the Russian-backed Syrian Arab Army and its allies to launch a new wave of offensive operations against opposing forces.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Aug 2016 21:13

Little boy in Aleppo a vivid reminder of war's horror

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/17/world ... index.html

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 18 Aug 2016 21:57

Singha wrote:a character named al muhaysini leads the flock of 20+ AQ/non-IS jihadis in that sector. he even crawled into aleppo after the gap opened to walk the streets and greet his constituents.
his motivational speech to the troops pre-attack was full of virgins.

enjoy the subtitles
[youtube br9yBF8yuxI /youtube]

Nice video to show when someone claims that "72 virgins" quote in quran is actually referring to 72 raisins.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Aug 2016 06:41

rumours that nukes are being shifted from incirlik to romania

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global ... o-romania/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Aug 2016 06:42

under some SALT or START treaty, the AAR probes of the backfires were supposedly removed . so not sure if these are put back now. that might explain why such a light bombload when operating from russia.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 19 Aug 2016 17:58

unkil is getting a lot of flak from turki-mango's and sultan-erduddin thinks that unkil is behind the coup

i wouldn't be surprised if unkil moved the bums out of incirlik a while back

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Aug 2016 19:08

the hot cupping marks on phelps body were alleged to be a secret Gulenist and putschist code.

turkey has granted amnesty to some 40k prisoners to create room in its jails for the hordes of people detained after the putsch failed.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 19 Aug 2016 20:36

reports of senior coup leaders being raped in front of their men
but i suppose in turkey that counts as R&R

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Aug 2016 21:07

Russian Warships Launch Cruise Missiles on al-Nusra Front Targets in Syria

Hit

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Aug 2016 21:11

realignment is ongoing.

turkey wants assads and irans help to keep the kurds away from controlling the border

huge fight ongoing in hasakah between assayish (kurd police) and NDF (govt militia) with YPG and SAA backing. SyAF bombing and artillery being used by both sides.

in exchange turkey might be willing to sell the Aleppo and Idlib jihadis down the river - something which is a tier1 goal of assad-irani combine.

americans are sitting on the fence.

russia has no fight with the kurds, but would love for the PKK to gain shelter in rojava and be a permanent sore under the turkish saddle ... while being a faithful all-lie of turkey under new equations...

its very tough to make out which is a optimal solution to this N-dimensional equation.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Aug 2016 21:13

russia should convert its oscar class subs into kalibr launchers..each of the granit tubes might accomodate 3....or maybe a few older delta class...

very cheap and effective arsenal ship to pound targets with.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Aug 2016 21:21

Singha wrote:russia should convert its oscar class subs into kalibr launchers..each of the granit tubes might accomodate 3....or maybe a few older delta class...

very cheap and effective arsenal ship to pound targets with.

They are doing that with Oscar upgrade , Each SS-N-19 Ship Wreck tube will carry 3 Onyx or Kalbir ........Kalbir will end up being widely deployed CM now from Small Missile ship to Subs to Cruisers

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 20 Aug 2016 07:14

Singha wrote:realignment is ongoing

Singha saar, you are spot on. Knowing fully well, Russians will leave some curd on the border, may be under some federal status under one Syria, for Erdo, it is much better outcome than independent Kurdish state blessed by Uncle. It is interesting that SAA has decided to open curdish front without stabilizing Aleppo. Unless Erdo, guaranteed full support there. Which means, uncle is not in a good position cornered in the curdish town in the NE of Syria. Some interesting times ahead indeed.....

PENTAGON THREATS TO SHOOT DOWN SYRIAN PLANES OVER HASAKAH

This also connects some dawts left out from the Toorkish coup (i.e. Erdo consolidating powers, so he can't be overthrown like his other ME brethren)...

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Aug 2016 10:50

Result of Cruise Missile Attack

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Aug 2016 10:52

Yusha Yuseef – ‏@MIG29_

SAA Tiger forces cut Ramousah-Khan Touman road by capturing Aqra` hill near Al-Shurfah quarries which overlook military colleges area aswell
4:57 pm - 19 Aug 2016

Jihadis will have it tougher now to fight way in or out

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Aug 2016 10:57

Syria: China and Iran Join Russia in Larger Role
http://www.globalresearch.ca/syria-chin ... le/5541666

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Aug 2016 14:16

agitpapa ‏@agitpapa 2h2 hours ago
Tehran reportedly brought Assad into its deal with Turkey against the Syrian Kurds & the PKK. Hasaka could be the YPG's pre-emptive response

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Aug 2016 14:19

chinese mil advisors have reached syria

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqPujWOWEAAhE5Z.jpg

being the cunning chess players they must have finally reached a conclusion that assad will survive and hence placed their bet on table.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Aug 2016 14:24

Elijah J. Magnier ‏@EjmAlrai 17h17 hours ago
Turkey believes US behind coup and is willing to offer Kurds a Federation on its border. It is serious now.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Aug 2016 14:28

Yannis Koutsomitis ‏@YanniKouts Aug 18
#Turkey is basically telling #Russia: "we're ready to sell out if you can guarantee us that there won't be a Kurdish canton in north #Syria"

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Aug 2016 14:31

Agathocle deSyracuse ‏@deSyracuse 1h1 hour ago
Agathocle deSyracuse Retweeted Gissur Simonarson
Race for #Jarabulus between Turkish-backed rebels and Kurdish-dominated #SDF

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Gissur SimonarsonVerified account
‏@GissiSim
Seeing a couple of reliable sources saying that rebels are massing near Jarabulus on the Turkish side of the border. Will be interesting.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Aug 2016 14:34

SDF pushing out of manbij to al bab and jarablous . they have vacated the town and handed it over to a local council

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Aug 2016 14:35

turkey is massing its ottoman militias on other side of jarablous to defend this vital entry point.

habal · Post by **habal** » 20 Aug 2016 18:18

kindly read this quote and do bear in mind that asayish are a kind of kurdish police/IB/stasi who have internal security role + border patrol where forces are thin.

It shows unkil's Plan-B for Syria.

Al-Hasakah is (was) cruical to the U.S. land-theft plan for eastern Syria. It pins the south border of Rojava to the north-weatern tip of the east-Syria FSA slice bewteen the Euphrates and Iraqi border. Important for the Kurdish/Israeli/Qatari pipeline routes. That's what all the fuss was about in al Tanf and al Bukamal. NySA handed over a few tons of weapons and ammo to ISIS to 'hold' that slice for them.

"Also keep in mind that the YPG/YPJ isn't calling the shots here at all. The Asayish are basically the PYD's Stazi. The CIA and U.S. SF advisors are probably running a torture camp there, but they are also most certainly training and arming the Asayish. This is completely independent of the minimal support they give to the YPG/YPJ militias. Kurdish militias are simply cannon-fodder meat for U.S. land-theft ambitions. Nobody has reported on this (for obvious censorship reasons) but I'm pretty sure the YPG/YPJ despise the CIA-run PYD and their U.S. SF-trained Asayish Stazi. The Kurds are not 'all on the same side'. The average Kurd knows the U.S. is using them, and the Asayish are the enforcer thugs for U.S. scheming.

"I would bet there are NO YPG/YPJ involved in fighting SAA forces. They never have and have no reason to. As Laguerre pointed out months ago, they need to co-exist with the SAA and Assad's government. This is a fight started by the U.S./Asayish Stazi."

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/08/ha ... 12ad16970c