Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 25 Feb 2014 21:45

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Nagesh ji, I can understand RNS and MMJ seats (even though it is hard to justify). I mean after all whether we like it or not, he is the party president and he has to be accommodated if he feels he is losing Ghaziabad and MMJ is an old war horse and probably some RSS old heads are pulling their strings for him. But why on earth should they give seats to Javdekar and Mittal of all people and that too in crucial seats. In fact BJP has a decent sitting MP from Meerut. If they are going to the extent of replacing him with this duffer called mittal (who caused all the problems in 2009). So much sabotage in UP, where Amit Shah is there, I can only imagine what is going on in other states.
RNS and MMJ should both be accommodated in RS (MMJ is useful and has good ideas about HRD, and RNS - well he is party president, so he should be in RS). They should leave LS to candidates who have a chance of winning. Sanjay Mahana in Kanpur, Rajendra Agarwal from Meerut, and Laxmikant Bajpai from Lucknow should be fielded. Any idea who can be fielded from Pune? If RNS wants to fight LS desperately, he should fight from Ghaziabad, which is his LS seat.

Agreed 100%. I am not sure if they can send RNS to RS or force him to fight from GZB. But they can send MM Joshi to RS and put Mahana there. That is the moral and smart thing to do.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 25 Feb 2014 21:46

muraliravi wrote:India TV reporting:

Rajnath Singh from Lucknow
Modi from Varanasi
MM Joshi From Kanpur
Prakash Javdekar from Pune

and to top it all

Sudhanshu Mittal from Meerut.

Wah bhai, kamaal ki list hai. Of these 5 four are gone. If Sudhanshu Mittal from Meerut and Javdekar from Pune is correct, then I am writing here in bold, BJP WILL NOT GET EVEN 160 SEATS.

One little problem with Jainism is that you can't do farming and you have to pay who takes the sin (on himself) of killing jeevas to grow vegitables etc..

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 25 Feb 2014 21:53

muraliravi wrote:India TV reporting:

Rajnath Singh from Lucknow
Modi from Varanasi
MM Joshi From Kanpur
Prakash Javdekar from Pune

and to top it all

Sudhanshu Mittal from Meerut.

Wah bhai, kamaal ki list hai. Of these 5 four are gone. If Sudhanshu Mittal from Meerut and Javdekar from Pune is correct, then I am writing here in bold, BJP WILL NOT GET EVEN 160 SEATS.

Not sure whether to believe this OR not. As far as I knew, Javdekar wanted to go in RS, but RPI's Athavle was sent in his stead. Kalmadi is most probably the candidate from Pune for INC - that means INC will most definitely lose in Pune. The question is whether BJP will win OR MNS or AAP pull the seat. From grapevine I heard, Girish Bapat or Anil Shirole were being considered for Pune ticket, javdekar being distant third. First two are really good candidates. Shirole is the savarkaraite (later RSS) 96-clan Maratha leader they are searching for. Bapat is a Brahmin who is immensely popular in region for good work. instead, they go for javdekar, who cannot even with from graduate constituency in rajyasabha.

I strongly suspect, if this is true, BJP does not want to win in 2014, just like I said they did not want to win in 2009. People want to ride Namo wave, but have BJP arrested at 180-200 so that someone else can become PM. I will wait for official announcement, though.

This is what I meant when I said NCP-UPA will strike back in MH.

having said all this, I doubt the authenticity of this news. I do not think Modi will contest from UP. he owes it to Gujjus.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Feb 2014 22:00

Atri wrote:I do not think Modi will contest from UP. he owes it to Gujjus.

I think if Modi wants to contest from Varanasi, then it would not simply be seen as some seat in UP, but as one of the most sacred cities of Hindus, and for that Gujjus would make an exception and allow NaMo to contest from there.

After all, when Gujjus visit Varanasi, they want to have some amenities too!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Feb 2014 22:13

if a candidate wins from multiple LS seats , does he need to resign from all but one later in time bound manner?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 25 Feb 2014 22:20

Singha wrote:if a candidate wins from multiple LS seats , does he need to resign from all but one later in time bound manner?

You cannot be sworn into the Lok Sabha from multiple seats. Before you are sworn in into LS, you need to resign one. Otherwise, NaMo could win 50 seats, win his vote of confidence, and slowly resign his seats to get his ppl into govt.

Sidd · Post by **Sidd** » 25 Feb 2014 22:26

muraliravi wrote:India TV reporting:

Rajnath Singh from Lucknow
Modi from Varanasi
MM Joshi From Kanpur
Prakash Javdekar from Pune

and to top it all

Sudhanshu Mittal from Meerut.

Wah bhai, kamaal ki list hai. Of these 5 four are gone. If Sudhanshu Mittal from Meerut and Javdekar from Pune is correct, then I am writing here in bold, BJP WILL NOT GET EVEN 160 SEATS.

Too much self doubt my friend. I am not sure if the above has been officially confirmed but BJP will win from Lucknow, Kanpur and Varanasi by record votes irrespective of the candidates. We might have our opinion on Sudhanshu Mittal but I doubt any one in Meerut know who he is. They all know who Modi is and they will be voting for him. BTW do you know who the current MP from Meerut is?

Rajnath fighting from Lucknow will be interesting. He lost an assembly election from Lucknow after his stint as education minister when he sent a whole bunch of kids to prison in handcuffs. He would sail through this time.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 25 Feb 2014 22:39

Paul wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:So BJP now has joined the appeasement bandwagon. What a shame. I wished I had not contributed to their PM fund. I want refund and I will be cheering as they keep on loosing their vote share from here on. Third front and UPA looks much better now. What a shame
Why is it that people always consider 100 or nothing for BJP but are willing to consider lower standards for other parties.

What's wrong is RNS shows a "secular" face like ABV?
BJP is in politics, and hence it has to play some of the rules to neutralize the opponents.
What matters most for BJP is to come to power under NaMo and deliver equal and true secular treatment
to every one. Under NaMo, minorities in Gujarat have realized over the last 12 years that the responsibility of upholding secularism doesn't rest with the majority community only, and minorities have equal responsibility too.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 25 Feb 2014 22:49

It seems Cvoter saga is orchestrated by Congress to show that surveys are bogus, and now want to ban them. Congress cannot stomach because survey after survey is predicting the size of TsuNaMo is increasing.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 25 Feb 2014 22:50

kmkraoind wrote:It seems Cvoter saga is orchestrated by Congress to show that surveys are bogus, and now want to ban them. Congress cannot stomach because survey after survey is predicting the size of TsuNaMo is increasing.

Also, creates problems for EVM use.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 25 Feb 2014 22:52

Saw a news report about several SS MLA's moving to NCP in MH. Strongly suspect that its either got to do with Pawarful (old wolf that he is) having foreseen the post-election arithmetic and found out that he indeed does have a shot at the chair (mostly third front with INC outside support configuration), or the fact that SS cadres & MLA's realized that the party (with or without UT) does not have a future in the highly likely scenario of a MH bifurcation under the watch of the next GOI.

It could be a little bit of both feeding into their sense of remaining relevant even as BJP, NCP & MNS will rise to fill the vaccuum in a post-SS & eventual post-Pawarful MH. So NDA 3.0 (or 4.0) will have to re-construct some of their bedrock.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 25 Feb 2014 23:09

Is this all to ban Opinion so that EVMM manipulation is more palatable.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 25 Feb 2014 23:20

nageshks wrote:Modi should break away from the BJP and make his own party.

I was the first to advocate that in BRF.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Feb 2014 23:40

Twitter says Rajnath SIngh welcomes retired RAW chief Sanjay Tripathi into BJP.

So looks like all those Mid East news reports are plants by Congress goons.

disha · Post by **disha** » 25 Feb 2014 23:42

Singha wrote:if a candidate wins from multiple LS seats , does he need to resign from all but one later in time bound manner?

You did not know!!!!

The answer is *Yes*.

disha · Post by **disha** » 25 Feb 2014 23:49

gandharva wrote:....

One little problem with Jainism is that you can't do farming and you have to pay who takes the sin (on himself) of killing jeevas to grow vegitables etc..

You do not know and assume!!! Well whatever is written in wikipedia is not necessarily correct. And lot of Jains will even become soldiers and give bakis a leg up their musharrafs violently if given proper opportunity - so farming kis khet ki mooli hain?

There is the "Jain method of farming" (or Jain Farming) and this is different from "Drip irrigation supplied by Jain Irrigation to do Jain Farming" (google will give later than former).

In short, "Jain method of farming" is "integrated 'natural' farming with natural pest control", it is as organic as you get.

Proof: http://www.hindu.com/2010/06/20/stories ... 320500.htm

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Feb 2014 00:27

Atri wrote: Not sure whether to believe this OR not. As far as I knew, Javdekar wanted to go in RS, but RPI's Athavle was sent in his stead. Kalmadi is most probably the candidate from Pune for INC - that means INC will most definitely lose in Pune. The question is whether BJP will win OR MNS or AAP pull the seat. From grapevine I heard, Girish Bapat or Anil Shirole were being considered for Pune ticket, javdekar being distant third. First two are really good candidates. Shirole is the savarkaraite (later RSS) 96-clan Maratha leader they are searching for. Bapat is a Brahmin who is immensely popular in region for good work. instead, they go for javdekar, who cannot even with from graduate constituency in rajyasabha.

I strongly suspect, if this is true, BJP does not want to win in 2014, just like I said they did not want to win in 2009. People want to ride Namo wave, but have BJP arrested at 180-200 so that someone else can become PM. I will wait for official announcement, though.

This is what I meant when I said NCP-UPA will strike back in MH.

having said all this, I doubt the authenticity of this news. I do not think Modi will contest from UP. he owes it to Gujjus.

Atri ji,

I am keeping my fingers crossed. I hope the India TV list is fake and has no basis, because if it is true, we have a much bigger problem which cannot be solved in 2-3 months. I did a google check on sundhanshu mittal and around feb 16 HT and couple of other papers carried news reports that mittal may contest from some seat in delhi. So if all this is gossip, then i am relieved.

Ideally

Pune should be Shirole/Bapat
Kanpur should no one other than Mahana (a BJP primary conducted 3 consecutive times in last 2 years showed him to be the most preferred candidate)
Though I would like RNS to be boxed back to ghaziabad (he will have his way) and i doubt anyone in BJP can do much about that
Send MMJ to RS and put Laxmikant Bajpai in Varanasi
Meerut - repeat Rajendra Agarwal

If RNS can be boxed to GZB, Bajpai should contest from lucknow

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2014 00:38

Looks like massa is activating their moles.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 735_1.html

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Feb 2014 01:21

Sidd wrote:
Too much self doubt my friend. I am not sure if the above has been officially confirmed but BJP will win from Lucknow, Kanpur and Varanasi by record votes irrespective of the candidates. We might have our opinion on Sudhanshu Mittal but I doubt any one in Meerut know who he is. They all know who Modi is and they will be voting for him. BTW do you know who the current MP from Meerut is?

Rajnath fighting from Lucknow will be interesting. He lost an assembly election from Lucknow after his stint as education minister when he sent a whole bunch of kids to prison in handcuffs. He would sail through this time.

The current MP from Meerut is Rajendra Agarwal. My friend, only Modi can save BJP in Varanasi. Any other candidate (maybe laxmikant bajpai can win it also) will lose badly. Reason is mr. windbag of highest order called MM Joshi who cannot even speak a line clearly these days visits his constituency only to oversee his real estate. He has not even utilized the funds given to his constituency (you can check official records if you are interested). Repeated surveys have shown that he has screwed BJP's image so badly in that seat that no one can save BJP there.

The way I see it is, BJP is not a BSP/SP with some locked vote bank. BJP needs a wave (which they have) and right candidates to win elections. The 2nd is equally if not more important than the 1st one. You might have already noticed, the indian voter attitude towards BJP is "BJP has to be gold for me to vote for it, if it is silver, i will rather vote for a bronze or even worse party".

So BJP cannot play candidate selection lightly. Winnability has to be the only and only criteria for giving a seat to a person. If the Modi wave is so intense, why is Rajnath running away from Ghaziabad where he is an MP currently, why is the so called hindu samrat Varun Gandhi (the guy hates Modi and was in fact in favour of RNS being declared as PM nominee) running away from pilibhit to sultanpur in the other corner of UP. We should answer these questions before we can think that BJP can win seats with these faces riding on a Modi wave. UP is not Rajasthan where BJP has 50% vote share. They are just barely above 30% vote. Just a bad choice can screw the seat.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Feb 2014 02:36

muraliravi ji,

MMJ, RNS, Varun Gandhi, et al may have been really bad MPs, because may be they are all "laaton ke bhoot" or donkeys who have to be beaten and driven so that they do some work. May be NaMo, fully charged, in June 2014, would be able to squeeze some juice out of these old apples.

However now the decisions taken are based on winnability, and possibly neither MMJ, RNS nor VG can really win from their previous constituencies, so they have to be moved around.

What Modi does not want to see is Congi media going to town shouting that BJP is a house divided, should these varisht adhikari, lose their cool.

These are "respected" leaders of BJP and they cannot be allowed to fall. Not even Sushma Swaraj. All Modi can do is put minders on to these leaders.

So you'll see "leaders" being accommodated in new seats. Nobody wants to take chances with anti-incumbency.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Feb 2014 02:43

RajeshA wrote:muraliravi ji,

MMJ, RNS, Varun Gandhi, et al may have been really bad MPs, because may be they are all "laaton ke bhoot" or donkeys who have to be beaten and driven so that they do some work. May be NaMo, fully charged, in June 2014, would be able to squeeze some juice out of these old apples.

However now the decisions taken are based on winnability, and possibly neither MMJ, RNS nor VG can really win from their previous constituencies, so they have to be moved around.

What Modi does not want to see is Congi media going to town shouting that BJP is a house divided, should these varisht adhikari, lose their cool.

These are "respected" leaders of BJP and they cannot be allowed to fall. Not even Sushma Swaraj. All Modi can do is put minders on to these leaders.

So you'll see "leaders" being accommodated in new seats. Nobody wants to take chances with anti-incumbency.

Rajesh ji,

I agree. But here is the problem. MMJ will not win Kanpur under any circumstances. For that matter, he cannot win any seat. So what do you do with such people, you give them seats which BJP will anyway lose. You dont give them seats which BJP can otherwise win easily. As i had posted before, I can understand with RNS (but even in his case, he can be given some other winnable seat, no need to give such a high profile seat like Lucknow). But there can be no justification for Mittal in meerut and Javadekar in Pune. I hope India TV news was incorrect.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Feb 2014 02:54

muraliravi wrote:I can understand with RNS (but even in his case, he can be given some other winnable seat, no need to give such a high profile seat like Lucknow).

But but Rajnath Singh is the mighty Thakur from UP who singlehandedly crowned NaMo as the King-to-be! RNS is the President of the Party! So who else can don the glory of Lucknow if not the most glorious of BJP leaders (after NaMo)?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Feb 2014 02:57

RajeshA wrote:
muraliravi wrote:I can understand with RNS (but even in his case, he can be given some other winnable seat, no need to give such a high profile seat like Lucknow).
But but Rajnath Singh is the mighty Thakur from UP who singlehandedly crowned NaMo as the King-to-be! RNS is the President of the Party! So who else can don the glory of Lucknow if not the most glorious of BJP leaders (after NaMo)?

Well, you have a point here. I am not happy, but if he will win the seat and if certain things have to be done in larger interest, then i guess i should look at it from that angle

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 26 Feb 2014 02:59

Going on the same line, VG is good choice for Sultanpur (he may not be able to win Pilibhit, where her mother may, and on her seat, some other BJP MP can). Similarly Rajnath can win LKO while some high profile bureaucrat (like Kiran Bedi) can win Ghaziabad. Now can MMJ win from anywhere? Why not his old constituency Allahabad? So this shuffling is Good. BJP has only 10 (+ kalyan) in outgoing house. Out of this 11, Yogi ji, Ramakant Yadav, Menaka, and Kalyan are sure shot win from their seats. Rest 7, some can win and some will loose if repeated (like MM Joshi from Varanasi will loose, Lalji Tandon may win.). So prudent thing is to either retired the loosing candidates or accomodate them from some other place where they will win. Being vindictive against them serves no purpose.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 26 Feb 2014 03:18

disha wrote:
Singha wrote:if a candidate wins from multiple LS seats , does he need to resign from all but one later in time bound manner?
You did not know!!!!

The answer is *Yes*.

What a waste of public money. They should ban this practice. One man from ONE constituency.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Feb 2014 03:43

DMDK is all set to ink a deal with BJP for the Lok Sabha elections and talks are on to finalise the number of seats. While DMDK chief Vijayakanth and his wife Premalatha are in Singapore, the party's youth wing secretary and the actor's brother-in-law L K Sudheesh met an emissary of Narendra Modi on Monday at a Chennai hotel and conveyed that his leader has agreed to an alliance, sources said.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 011763.cms -

Vijaykanth is a known 'drunkard'. And will this upset Amma if post-poll alliance becomes a necessity? Only time will tell if this is a good or bad news.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Feb 2014 04:04

SwamyG wrote:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 011763.cms -

Vijaykanth is a known 'drunkard'. And will this upset Amma if post-poll alliance becomes a necessity? Only time will tell if this is a good or bad news.

So, the Dinamalar article was correct. DMDK gets 12 seats, PMK gets 7-9 seats (some caste outfits associated with BJP are also part of PMK alliance), MDMK gets 6 seats, other BJP allies get 4, BJP 10. It will be interesting to see just how much this NaMo alliance will win when people in rural TN are still saying about NaMo's party `Avanga katchi Tamil Naatula kaadayathu'

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 26 Feb 2014 05:11

KJoishy wrote:What a waste of public money. They should ban this practice. One man from ONE constituency.

eh..that is the least of our election related troubles.

sometimes, depending on the margin of victory of the original winner, and the stature of the replacement candidate, the other guys give it a pass and there might not even be an election.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 26 Feb 2014 05:14

SwamyG wrote: And will this upset Amma if post-poll alliance becomes a necessity? Only time will tell if this is a good or bad news.

jj has no reason to be upset when she was the first person to say 'all 40 is ours', putting an end to any talk of alliance with bjp.

as long as bjp does not go hard on her, they can still get her in post-poll.

this is an LS election and that allows bjp to play this purely as 'vote for us to center' avoiding the state rule issues.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 26 Feb 2014 05:26

muraliravi wrote:Well, you have a point here. I am not happy, but if he will win the seat and if certain things have to be done in larger interest, then i guess i should look at it from that angle

Shri Rajnath Singh will not have a difficulty winning from LKO. However, the party's first list will come only after Feb 27 after a meeting of the leadership. I do not know how some TV channels can claim to have got the names "in advance" when in fact they do not exist at the moment.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Feb 2014 05:55

nageshks wrote:It will be interesting to see just how much this NaMo alliance will win when people in rural TN are still saying about NaMo's party `Avanga katchi Tamil Naatula kaadayathu'

A swallow does not maketh summer. Times are changing. True BJP or Modi does not have the same recognition as the *MK parties, and it is also true that BJP has not done enough to spread BJP ideology in the hearts of people, and true TN is not going to become saffron overnight, yet all is not lost. BJP should ride Modi in the next few weeks and spread its message to harvest votes the next time.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2014 05:56

Its nice to see BJP wheeling and mingling with the local parties in TN.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Feb 2014 05:58

Gus wrote:
SwamyG wrote: And will this upset Amma if post-poll alliance becomes a necessity? Only time will tell if this is a good or bad news.
jj has no reason to be upset when she was the first person to say 'all 40 is ours', putting an end to any talk of alliance with bjp.

JJ is mercurial. If 'Gaptun' aligns with BJP pre-poll; and then if BJP needs AIADMK post poll. Would JJ try to get more pounds of flesh because Vijayakanth is 'friends' with Modi. Avalakku semmai ego sami.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Feb 2014 06:06

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 009963.cms

She is just one MASSIVE blob of ego.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Feb 2014 06:11

SwamyG wrote: A swallow does not maketh summer. Times are changing. True BJP or Modi does not have the same recognition as the *MK parties, and it is also true that BJP has not done enough to spread BJP ideology in the hearts of people, and true TN is not going to become saffron overnight, yet all is not lost. BJP should ride Modi in the next few weeks and spread its message to harvest votes the next time.

To be fair, BJP has started growing in TN only after Pon Radhakrishnan became president. He has been the most energetic president in BJP history in TN. Starting from 0, he actually put up a half decent show in the southern districts even in Assembly 2011 (in Kanyakumari and Ramanathapuram, BJP came second in several places). And the fact that smaller parties are converging towards the BJP indicates that the BJP has come a long way. It would be rare for any small party like MDMK or PMK to even consider allying with the BJP. Some of the fault lies with the BJP central leadership, which never encouraged BJP to go full tilt against JJ or Thatha. They were always hoping for an alliance and a few breadcrumbs. But from there, BJP has come a long way under Pon Radhakrishnan, and is going to hit double digit vote this election. That, in and of itself, is an achievement for the BJP. But, as you say, they still have a long way to go before they can go toe to toe with the two big bad *MKs.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Feb 2014 06:13

ramana wrote:Its nice to see BJP wheeling and mingling with the local parties in TN.

BJP is putting together a 9 party alliance. They hope to hit 25% of the vote, at least, with their alliance.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Feb 2014 06:22

SwamyG wrote:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 009963.cms

She is just one MASSIVE blob of ego.

There is no reason for BJP to be afraid of her. The more seats BJP can get on its own, the better it is. She will play games if she wants to anyway (if BJP appeases her or not).

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2014 06:31

nageshks wrote:
ramana wrote:Its nice to see BJP wheeling and mingling with the local parties in TN.
BJP is putting together a 9 party alliance. They hope to hit 25% of the vote, at least, with their alliance.

So what is the voteshare of AIADMK and DMK and their allies if any?

Sidd · Post by **Sidd** » 26 Feb 2014 06:44

muraliravi wrote:
The current MP from Meerut is Rajendra Agarwal. My friend, only Modi can save BJP in Varanasi. Any other candidate (maybe laxmikant bajpai can win it also) will lose badly. Reason is mr. windbag of highest order called MM Joshi who cannot even speak a line clearly these days visits his constituency only to oversee his real estate. He has not even utilized the funds given to his constituency (you can check official records if you are interested). Repeated surveys have shown that he has screwed BJP's image so badly in that seat that no one can save BJP there.

The way I see it is, BJP is not a BSP/SP with some locked vote bank. BJP needs a wave (which they have) and right candidates to win elections. The 2nd is equally if not more important than the 1st one. You might have already noticed, the indian voter attitude towards BJP is "BJP has to be gold for me to vote for it, if it is silver, i will rather vote for a bronze or even worse party".

So BJP cannot play candidate selection lightly. Winnability has to be the only and only criteria for giving a seat to a person. If the Modi wave is so intense, why is Rajnath running away from Ghaziabad where he is an MP currently, why is the so called hindu samrat Varun Gandhi (the guy hates Modi and was in fact in favour of RNS being declared as PM nominee) running away from pilibhit to sultanpur in the other corner of UP. We should answer these questions before we can think that BJP can win seats with these faces riding on a Modi wave. UP is not Rajasthan where BJP has 50% vote share. They are just barely above 30% vote. Just a bad choice can screw the seat.

Sirji, I am from Lucknow and have been a witness to rise and fall and now again resurgence of BJP with my own eyes. This election in UP is not about local candidates, it is about only one candidate i.e. Modi and that is going to trump everything else. People who want to vote for Modi will vote for him irrespective of the candidate..

I dont think anyone on the streets know about the grand conspiracy of D4 and or if there is a particular revulsion in their minds for RNS and MMJ. There is hardly a mass based leader in UP BJP who on his own accord will be able to win even a Vidhan sabha seat. The only exception would be Yogi Adityanath in Gorakhpur and Menaka Gandhi in Pilibhit, but that is due to the local politics of those seats. Even a leader like Kalyan Singh could not save a seat like Dibai with majority Lodh population in the last assembly election.
Rajendra agarwal, Dron,Mahana, Laximikant Bajpai are non entities and they will have trouble saving their deposits in normal circumstances. BTW Laxmikant Bajpai is from Meerut and until an year ago nobody knew about him even in the BJP.

The direction of wind started to change in 2011 when BJP won almost all Mayor elections by huge margins and that too right after they got completely wiped out in the assembly election. I grant that they also got benefited from the fact that BSP and SP did not field candidates on their symbols, but generally voters are aware of unofficial candidates for parties. Last 1 year has seen traditional BJP voters gravitate back to BJP and right now things look very similar for BJP from the time of RJB moment. My guess is that BJP will end up getting about 33% votes which in context of UP means a landslide. The only thing which can derail the applecart is Cong + BSP tieup or mass migration of Muslims from SP to BSP making it a two way fight. Even in that case BJP should easily get 30 seats.

On the question of RNS and VG running away. Ghaziabad and Noida for all practical purpose is part of Delhi and just like Delhi AAP is a major factor there. As far as Sultanpur is concerned it was never a BJP strong seat and BJP has not won there in Dog years.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Feb 2014 06:59

Sidd wrote:
Sirji, I am from Lucknow and have been a witness to rise and fall and now again resurgence of BJP with my own eyes. This election in UP is not about local candidates, it is about only one candidate i.e. Modi and that is going to trump everything else. People who want to vote for Modi will vote for him irrespective of the candidate..

I dont think anyone on the streets know about the grand conspiracy of D4 and or if there is a particular revulsion in their minds for RNS and MMJ. There is hardly a mass based leader in UP BJP who on his own accord will be able to win even a Vidhan sabha seat. The only exception would be Yogi Adityanath in Gorakhpur and Menaka Gandhi in Pilibhit, but that is due to the local politics of those seats. Even a leader like Kalyan Singh could not save a seat like Dibai with majority Lodh population in the last assembly election.
Rajendra agarwal, Dron,Mahana, Laximikant Bajpai are non entities and they will have trouble saving their deposits in normal circumstances. BTW Laxmikant Bajpai is from Meerut and until an year ago nobody knew about him even in the BJP.

The direction of wind started to change in 2011 when BJP won almost all Mayor elections by huge margins and that too right after they got completely wiped out in the assembly election. I grant that they also got benefited from the fact that BSP and SP did not field candidates on their symbols, but generally voters are aware of unofficial candidates for parties. Last 1 year has seen traditional BJP voters gravitate back to BJP and right now things look very similar for BJP from the time of RJB moment. My guess is that BJP will end up getting about 33% votes which in context of UP means a landslide. The only thing which can derail the applecart is Cong + BSP tieup or mass migration of Muslims from SP to BSP making it a two way fight. Even in that case BJP should easily get 30 seats.

On the question of RNS and VG running away. Ghaziabad and Noida for all practical purpose is part of Delhi and just like Delhi AAP is a major factor there. As far as Sultanpur is concerned it was never a BJP strong seat and BJP has not won there in Dog years.

Really hope that is the case and they come out victorious.