Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Feb 2014 07:00

http://m.economictimes.com/news/politic ... 958876.cms

Chhattisagrh Swabhiman Manch (CSM) merged with BJP at a funciton here in the presence of key ruling party leaders, including Chief Minister Raman Singh.

The CSM got 1.8% vote in the recent assembly polls in CG. This could help BJP in widening the gap. Good job.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 26 Feb 2014 07:01

Sultanpur is a tough seat, BJP won it 3 times in 1990s and then not, where is Pilibhit has been won by Menaka regularly. This is superb tactical move by BJP. By moving VG out to Sultanpur, BJP increases its chances in Sultanpur and in Pilibhit a lighter weight candidate can win (and VG does not pay for anti-incumbency).

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Feb 2014 07:12

muraliravi wrote:
SwamyG wrote:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 009963.cms

She is just one MASSIVE blob of ego.
There is no reason for BJP to be afraid of her. The more seats BJP can get on its own, the better it is. She will play games if she wants to anyway (if BJP appeases her or not).

If she gets 30+ seats, then she is cooking...

Sidd · Post by **Sidd** » 26 Feb 2014 07:29

fanne wrote:Going on the same line, VG is good choice for Sultanpur (he may not be able to win Pilibhit, where her mother may, and on her seat, some other BJP MP can). Similarly Rajnath can win LKO while some high profile bureaucrat (like Kiran Bedi) can win Ghaziabad. Now can MMJ win from anywhere? Why not his old constituency Allahabad? So this shuffling is Good. BJP has only 10 (+ kalyan) in outgoing house. Out of this 11, Yogi ji, Ramakant Yadav, Menaka, and Kalyan are sure shot win from their seats. Rest 7, some can win and some will loose if repeated (like MM Joshi from Varanasi will loose, Lalji Tandon may win.). So prudent thing is to either retired the loosing candidates or accomodate them from some other place where they will win. Being vindictive against them serves no purpose.

Ghaziabad will be touch and go....Kejri's antics still has a lot of buyers there. In Lucknow the victory margin should be > 2 lacs plus even for Lalchi Tandon. Joshiji can win easily from any of the urban seats including Banaras. Allahabad's demographics is not favorable for BJP though this time they can win it with Modi's magic and alliance with Apna dal.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 26 Feb 2014 07:30

Btw some scenerio medelling on ticket distribution -

Local battle v/s national war – the next stage of electoral strategy
Posted on February 12, 2014 by Dr Praveen Patil
8
Pawan Kumar Bansal, the corruption tainted former railway minister in UPA 2, is like a cat with nine lives, for he keeps getting a new lease of life every time he is on the verge of a collapse. Bansal’s political career should have ended long ago; in 1999 to be precise, when he had managed to get the Congress ticket from Chandigarh despite losing back-to-back elections in 1996 and 1998. Had he lost the 1999 election too, it would be a virtual death knell for him. The 1999 national elections were held in the backdrop of the Kargil war and a really high dose of chest-thumping patriotism which was equated with the then ruling NDA government headed by Vajpayee, thus Chandigarh, being a garrison town with a large portion of army men, should have logically voted for the BJP with relative ease. Additionally, BJP’s sitting MP of Chandigarh, Satyapal Jain was a formidable candidate – a self-made man who had grown up in poverty as a newspaper hawker and had gone on to study law – which made it almost an impossible battle for P.K. Bansal of the Congress party.

BJP did the unthinkable in 1999, it denied ticket to Mr. Jain and instead nominated the party vice president, K.L. Sharma (Pandit ji, for everybody in the Sangh circles), to the Chandigarh parliamentary seat because Mr. Sharma had become extremely unpopular in his own constituency of outer Delhi! The 1999 general election was necessitated due to BJP losing the vote of confidence by a solitary vote, which should have made the party extremely weary of each and every MP seat, but instead BJP leadership went ahead and disturbed a winning combination in Chandigarh to accommodate an apparatchik of the high command who was loaned out by the RSS. Needless to state that BJP shamelessly lost Chandigarh just a few months after Kargil war and Pawan Kumar Bansal got a new lease of life. Since 1999, Bansal has won two more electoral victories from the Chandigarh seat despite BJP re-nominating Satyapal Jain and what is more, he has even improved upon his victory margin each time.

This is a classic case of bad ticket distribution hurting the party not just in one election but in three elections on the trot. This has been BJP’s forte since a long time; in fact, it is a unique mindset defect of the Hindu psyche which forcefully grabs defeat from the jaws of victory. Look at what is happening in Chandigarh today, the party is running like a headless chicken and yet everybody wants to contest the LS polls hoping to ride on an apparent Modi wave and cash in on the corruption charges against Mr. Bansal. Whole new dynamics are being cooked up overnight and celebrity names like that of Kirron Kher, the actress wife of Anupam Kher, are being bandied about by the high command, despite her having zero connect with the political environs of Chandigarh. Pray, who is in-charge of Chandigarh in the BJP? Answer: Arti Mehra, need one say any more?! In the end, P.K. Bansal may yet survive the battle of 2014, but he will have only BJP and its leadership to thank for this all over again.

Contrast this with how clinically Congress handles ticket distribution. Let us take the case of another highly urban constituency, Mumbai North as a case in the point. In 2004, Ram Naik, the then O&G minister in the Vajpayee cabinet had already won Mumbai North 5 times on a trot since 1989, but was facing some anti-incumbency after 15 years. Congress was quick to pounce upon this small window of opportunity and pitted fimstar Govinda against the veteran Railway commuter’s activist of Mumbai North, Ram Naik. Govinda and Congress were able to convert the entire electoral battle into a fight for the north Indian migrant labors, who are present in abundant numbers and have had various issues of conflict with BJP’s alliance partner in Maharashtra, the ShivSena. Govinda turned out to be a giant killer in Mumbai North in 2004 as Mr. Naik was defeated by a greenhorn celebrity.

Conventional political wisdom of that time was that this was a one-off defeat for Ram Naik, who was expected to bounce back by the next election. As it turned out, Govinda, the filmstar was one of the worst performing MPs of the state as he hardly found time for his constituents in the midst of a busy movie career. Ideally, Mr. Naik deserved to return back to the parliament in the 2009 polls, but Congress had other plans. Govinda was dropped as the Congress candidate and Sanjay Nirupam, who had ostensibly deserted ShivSena on the issue of maltreatment of north Indian migrant laborers in Mumbai, was given the ticket and Congress once again managed to defeat Ram Naik with ample help from Raj Thackrey’s MNS. This is a classic case of converting anti-incumbency into an opportunity which all but finished the political career of a veteran BJP leader who had risen through sheer hard work. The study of contrasting impact on the political lives of P.K. Bansal and Ram Naik gives us a metaphor to distinguish Congress from BJP; it is this metaphor that tells a story.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Feb 2014 07:35

ramana wrote: So what is the voteshare of AIADMK and DMK and their allies if any?

CSDS had put up the following vote shares in January:

Congress 17%
BJP 16%
DMK 18%
AIADMK 27%
PMK 1%
DMDK 3%
VCK 2%
Left 3%
AAP 3%
Others 10%

Given that Amma is going with the left, AIADMK+ should get just over 30% of the votes. DMK+VCK gives 20%, but there are a few other parties like PT that are with DMK+, so they will get some of that 10% of the `Others' votes. BJP has BJP+PMK+MDMK+DMDK+IJK+Kongu parties, so the should get at around 25% of the vote or so. However, I suspect that the Congress vote share is too high (they are definitely not getting 17%, while the vote shares of DMDK and PMK are depressed. In any case, I don't see the BJP front getting more than 25-30% of the total vote.

vic · Post by **vic** » 26 Feb 2014 07:42

BJP killed off UP electoral base for a long time with a geriatric idiot Ram Lal Gupta (?) as CM. BJP needs to wash off drawing room politicians and force them to contest tough seats like:-

Jaitely
Sushma who has turned traitor to the cause
Murli Manohar Joshi
Jaswant Singh
Yashwant Sinha
Venkaih
Ananth Kumar
javedkar etc

They can be given ceremonial posts later like Governorships and Ambassadorships, if they don't want to contest tough Lok Sabha seats. Giving them easy seats, is injustice to ground level real leaders.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Feb 2014 08:00

vic wrote:BJP killed off UP electoral base for a long time with a geriatric idiot Ram Lal Gupta (?) as CM. BJP needs to wash off drawing room politicians and force them to contest tough seats like:-

Jaitely
Sushma who has turned traitor to the cause
Murli Manohar Joshi
Jaswant Singh
Yashwant Sinha
Venkaih
Ananth Kumar
javedkar etc

They can be given ceremonial posts later like Governorships and Ambassadorships, if they don't want to contest tough Lok Sabha seats. Giving them easy seats, is injustice to ground level real leaders.

Excellent suggestion. I have the following suggestions. Since they are all national leaders, they should fight hard seats as an example to the cadre.

Arun Jaitley - Last actual elections he fought was in Delhi to become some student leader. Let him fight again in Delhi, probably against Sandeep Dikshit (East Delhi) or Zero Loss Sibal (Chandni Chowk). If Jaitley loses, I assure you it is zero loss for BJP.

Sushma (Chinnamma of Telangana) - she should not be denied the privilege of fighting from her favourite state, not after she has worked incessantly, destroying BJP chances in AP for it. Suggest Khammam (the battle of the hags with Sumo Renuka is too pleasing an image to be foregone so easily).

Murli Manohar Joshi - Why not send him to Phulpur or Bhadohi? Both are close to his Varanasi, and both are seats which account for a lot of prestige.

Jaswant Singh - Well, he has his constituency, Darjeeling. Why not try to retain it, without support from the GJM this time? He should have made himself popular in Darjeeling in five years, no?

Yashwant Sinha - Now, this one is hard. His Hazaribagh seat he will lose, he has become unpopular there. We don't want him mucking up BJP changes in other Jharkhand seats. Maybe he should fight in Koderma against Babulal Marandi?

Venkaiah Naidu - Well, his home district, Nellore, has been freed for him. He should contest Nellore. Let him go to SeemaAndhra and show us how he can convince voters how he defended their interests?

Ananth Kumar - Now, this is another hard one. I fear he will mess up Bangalore South against Nandan Nilekani. Where can he be sent? Maybe he can move just a few miles away to Bangalore Rural and fight against Kumaraswamy and D K Shivakumar's brother. Beating both is no mean feat, and is truly prestigious, I can assure you.

Javadekar - Come on, what is more prestigious than beating Shudder Power or his daughter? He should fight in Baramati or Madha.

Do suggest alternatives if you wish to.

Sidd · Post by **Sidd** » 26 Feb 2014 08:06

^^You missed the Iron Man. Advaniji the Hindu Hriday Samrat from Faizabad(Ayodya). I am sure Kulkarneeji would like it.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Feb 2014 08:18

SwamyG wrote: If she gets 30+ seats, then she is cooking...

Never in TN history has ADMK ever won 18+ seats in any LS election, forget 30+. Never ever has ADMK's vote share in an LS election crossed 30%. Whereas in Assembly polls, the only time admk's vote share dipped below 30% was in 1996. This is the reality of TN and AIADMK. In lok sabha, she never does well in spite of all the hype before elections. DMK is not going anywhere.

She can dream all she wants, she will never become PM. At best her party will get 20 seats.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 26 Feb 2014 08:28

Caste lines fade with a never-before churn across Bihar -

http://www.hindustantimes.com/news-feed ... N6Kl1.dpuf

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 26 Feb 2014 08:45

muraliravi wrote:Really hope that is the case and they come out victorious.

You will see the response in the March 2 maha-rally in LKO.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 26 Feb 2014 08:48

muraliravi wrote:
harbans wrote:Rahul ji, there are a huge number of constituencies in India that have 30%, 40%, 50%, 60% and even 70% and beyond IM populations. Some districts i worked on in this link here: http://vicharprachar.wordpress.com/2013 ... partition/
These districts will have a large number of seats both local and national level. There is a possibility that gerrymandering also has happened in that weightage of these areas is much higher than others wrt populations.
Harbans sir, we dont even need to go to that level. The bed rock of Rahul M's theory is that Hindus are not divided and even if they are,..........

that would be Rahul Mehta, not Rahul M. kindly be careful while shortening usernames.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 26 Feb 2014 08:59

muraliravi wrote:India TV reporting:

Rajnath Singh from Lucknow
Modi from Varanasi
MM Joshi From Kanpur
Prakash Javdekar from Pune

and to top it all

Sudhanshu Mittal from Meerut.

Wah bhai, kamaal ki list hai. Of these 5 four are gone. If Sudhanshu Mittal from Meerut and Javdekar from Pune is correct, then I am writing here in bold, BJP WILL NOT GET EVEN 160 SEATS.

I agree, I cannot stand Javdekar, He is a party spokesperson and I have to lean forward to understand what he is saying. Nirmala Sitaraman should be given a Lok Sabha tcket for standing up SS.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 26 Feb 2014 09:09

muraliravi wrote:.
.
.
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But then, why does BJP always have this habit of committing harakiri near the finish line??

BJP is no better or no worse then Congress in executing their strategy. It is just that Namo is the first post Nehruvian leader who is not Dhimmified in his obeisance to the Nehru family. If BJP faltered in 2004 at state and central level it is the fault of the ABV-LKA combine who in their hurry to come to power sacrified state level units in UP, AP, Orissa, and Bihar. This attitude is no different from INC - Patel and Nehru who in their hurry to get to power agreed for partition. Make no mistake Patel also was for it, but we digress.

So far, it is only in Bihar that state level unit is showing signs of recovery. Tactical mistakes in candidate selection always happen as a party gets bigger and long time leaders want tickets for their progeny. This is a much mmuch bigger problem in the Congress where sycopancy to Termite queen triumphs merit. This is how dot coms like AAP see the gap the BJP-Congi strategy and get a foot in the door. However even they are giving tickets to celebrities instead of deserving party workers showing that all parties are afflicted with this foot and moout disease.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 26 Feb 2014 09:11

Personal biases and animosities in the guise of political analysis ?

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 26 Feb 2014 09:19

Sankuji, if you see the second post explains the rationale for nomination of non deserving candidates, personal opinion and biases not withstanding.

This is how dot coms like AAP see the gap the BJP-Congi strategy and get a foot in the door. However even they are giving tickets to celebrities instead of deserving party workers showing that all parties are afflicted with this foot and moout disease.

Do you think Javdekar deserves a ticket from Pune. What are his achievements as a RS member in the last 5 years. I am open to changing my opinion.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 26 Feb 2014 09:27

Paul wrote:Sankuji, if you see the second post explains the rationale for nomination of non deserving candidates, personal opinion and biases not withstanding.

This is how dot coms like AAP see the gap the BJP-Congi strategy and get a foot in the door. However even they are giving tickets to celebrities instead of deserving party workers showing that all parties are afflicted with this foot and moout disease.
Do you think Javdekar deserves a ticket from Pune. What are his achievements as a RS member in the last 5 years.

Paul-ji -- lets look at this

1) We dont even have a whiff of who the real candidates are
2) As Sidd pointed out -- UP who will win, depends only very little on the local candidate
3) All of AAP candidates were pieces of no name trash and local goondas of congress who stood on AAP ticket -- they won due to Farziwal's name and media and nothing else.
4) If you see, this discussion is only very superficialy and ostensibly about local candidate choice, Javedakar may or may not be the right candidate in Pune, but essentially the whole lot is basically a whine fest on how bad BJP is, how bad ABV was, how bad Advani is, how bad.

Some of these people ostensibly support Modi or bust, but clearly they dont even support Modi as was seen in recent AP thread. They basically support their own entrenched biases and are only looking to vent frustrations on BJP.

In terms of suitable candidates, I find it amusing that you run down Javedkar but support Nirmala Seetharaman. She is as much a Dilli billi as the rest of the hated "billi" gang.

This whole thing of "shoot any one who was with BJP when they lost" -- is passing off as political analysis. I am only pointing out it is not.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 26 Feb 2014 09:35

SwamyG wrote:
nageshks wrote:It will be interesting to see just how much this NaMo alliance will win when people in rural TN are still saying about NaMo's party `Avanga katchi Tamil Naatula kaadayathu'
A swallow does not maketh summer. Times are changing. True BJP or Modi does not have the same recognition as the *MK parties, and it is also true that BJP has not done enough to spread BJP ideology in the hearts of people, and true TN is not going to become saffron overnight, yet all is not lost. BJP should ride Modi in the next few weeks and spread its message to harvest votes the next time.

I think breaking into TN will be difficult for the BJP. I think what BJP should have done to enter south is first break into KTK & T areas of AP. Consolidate in these two areas. Using T as the hedge, it should have spread in AP. With solid presence in AP & KTK, it should have focused on Kerala. Then, TN would have warmed up.

Instead, BJP seems to be going about it in the wrong way.
First, it was unable to consolidate in T areas & KTK.
Second, it allowed Susi aunty to mess up KTK & T areas(& finally break AP with connivance of Modi uncle). Now, even if BJP grows in T, it will face difficulty in growing in coastal & seema regions.
Third, Coastal & Seema were warming up to BJP due to EJ activity. BJP squandered it by playing division games. If BJP had just kept quiet, then BJP would have gained in Seema & Coastal in the next decade. If BJP had postured(not necessarily stopped) against the division, they would have gained immediately in Seema & Coastal.
Fourth, the division of AP is not going to play any major role in helping BJP. Ultimately, BJP will need Hindhuthva to gain(this applies to T regions & rest of South).

But, the positive for the BJP is that Kerala is warming up to BJP due to EJ activity. If BJP does not mess up Kerala, then there is a chance that they may gain presence there. And if they can consolidate in KTK, then Kerala & KTK(and perhaps, T) will give them some presence in South-Bhaarath. But, it seems to me that TN will be difficult to break into. Perhaps, TN might warm up, if Kerala is completely saffron.

The key to North-East seems to be Vangal & Assam. Even historically, those who control Assam & Vangal seem to control the entire North-East & put pressure on the plains.

Anyway, it is crucial to note that BJP is completely absent from the East coast right now. Earlier, they seem to have had presence in Odisha. Now, they seem to have squandered that away. Infact, major portions of Bhaarath(East coast, South, North-East) are devoid of BJP presence. BJP seems to be present only in central Bhaarath. So, while kongis are dying, BJP was also not doing very well. Infact, kongis seem to be dying slowly because of BJP not doing well. Right now, NaMo wave gave BJP a great opportunity to rise in new areas where it was not present previously. RJB gave BJP an opportunity to rise in many areas. Infact, it seems like all the areas where BJP is present today is due to RJB. If BJP already had significant presence, then RJB would have become much bigger in its impact.

----
These so-called national leaders are neither popular with cadre nor can they win elections. They are not so great in their administration either. So, why are they supposed to be accommodated? Why can't they perform or perish? Not only are the leaders accommodated, but their bhai(brothers), bhatheeja(nephews), Beta(sons) & Beti(daughters) have to accommodated in LS or RS. It is precisely this culture that has weakened kongis apart from the absolute imbeciles on the top(i.e. dynasty). The same culture seems to be now followed in most other parties. Commies & Lotus seemed like exceptions, but it seems even these parties are heading in this cultural direction.

What these inept and incompetent leaders do is, they damage(through backroom manipulations) competent leaders, so as to stay relevant. They don't allow any competent leader to rise as their competition. So, they kill any budding leadership and damage the organization completely. The same leaders will also jump the ship, if the organization is facing difficult time. The only way to retain such leaders is to keep incriminating evidence on them by their superiors. That means allowing them to indulge in crimes and then collecting the evidence to ensure their loyalty by blackmail. So, the loyalty is ensured as long as they are allowed to indulge in crimes. But, what if the leader is inept & incompetent but not corrupt? Well, such a leader can be a threat to the top leadership because his loyalty is not ensured. So, only the corrupt get promoted because their loyalty is ensured through blackmail.

One can easily see that this entire culture is geared to preserve the power for the few by exploiting the people at large in a pyramid like system with commissions at each stage going to the very top.
----

Sanku saar,
do you mean to say that one must blindly support BJP in whatever they do? Isn't it a good thing that people have their own independent view of what is good and what is bad and then support BJP or any other political party only when they think it stands for the good? Otherwise, what is the difference between supporters of various political parties if they blindly support their respective parties?

As for biases, well, everyone has their own and tries to justify them with their own rationale.

For example, you seem to believe that there was no infighting in BJP. On the other hand, across the spectrum, it seems to be an accepted fact that there was infighting(and perhaps still is) in BJP. Of course, you may be right and most people may be wrong. But, it could be the other way around also. At the end of day, people make up their minds based on their own bias.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 26 Feb 2014 09:37

Paul wrote:Sankuji, if you see the second post explains the rationale for nomination of non deserving candidates, personal opinion and biases not withstanding.

This is how dot coms like AAP see the gap the BJP-Congi strategy and get a foot in the door. However even they are giving tickets to celebrities instead of deserving party workers showing that all parties are afflicted with this foot and moout disease.
Do you think Javdekar deserves a ticket from Pune. What are his achievements as a RS member in the last 5 years. I am open to changing my opinion.

I agree that he isn't the most effective spokesperson. We can make the case that he won't be the best candidate for Pune but his performance as an MP isn't bad.
MP Track - Rajya Sabha - Prakash Javadekar

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 26 Feb 2014 09:38

Some of these people ostensibly support Modi or bust, but clearly they dont even support Modi as was seen in recent AP thread. They basically support their own entrenched biases and are only looking to vent frustrations on BJP.

Agreed, they will curse BJP but will go and vote for Chiranjeevi after watching his son's movie in the next election.

In terms of suitable candidates, I find it amusing that you run down Javedkar but support Nirmala Seetharaman. She is as much a Dilli billi as the rest of the hated "billi" gang.

Please do not take my statement on Sitaraman seriously, it was meant in jest. She needs to do a lot more to deserve a Lok Sabha ticket.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 26 Feb 2014 09:51

Sickulars are killing Hindus unabated while DRACULA's friends are spreading rumors that BJP is polarizing

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/o ... epage=true

Vijay Prasad Yadav (32) succumbed to injuries late on Monday, while two youths who were seriously injured were referred to a hospital in Varanasi.

One person was killed and more than a dozen others were injured when two communities clashes over the construction of a platform at a religious place in Azamgarh on Monday night.

The husband of the head of Rasoolpur village was constructing the platform at a religious place in Mohammadpur Bazar when members of the other community objected to it and assaulted him, following which both sides clashed and indulged in heavy brick-batting.

A rampaging mob then damaged around 50 shops and set fire to two motorcycles.

There were also reports of firing in the market, Azamgarh SP Ananth Dev said, adding that 15 - 20 persons were detained. Arrests would be made as per evidence, he said.

Mr. Dev said the situation was now normal even as local markets were shut on Tuesday.

The Station House Officer of Gambhirpur, under whose jurisdiction the incident occurred, was suspended, he added.

Vijay Prasad Yadav (32) succumbed to injuries late on Monday, while two youths who were seriously injured were referred to a hospital in Varanasi.

Police and Provincial Armed Constabulary forces have been deployed in large numbers.

Lashing out at the Samajwadi Party, BJP spokesperson Vijay Bahadur Pathak said the State failed to prevent such incidents due to its "partisan" policies.

"The SP takes decisions based on religion and caste, so such atmospheres are bound to be created," he claimed.

niran · Post by **niran** » 26 Feb 2014 10:20

when Indira Gandhi expelled Meneka and her Kids they took refuge in Varanasi, amply supported by bania class
point to note: the Bania class included
-Singhs who were big in Coal and Thekedari and Alcohol
-Muslims who were big in wooden furniture and handloom
-Gujjus who were big in tobacco
-Marwaris who were big in Gold, Silver, and related items and Masala(the edible kind)
-srivastavs and others who were big in building materials,
-the Rais or Bhumihars big in Beedi leafs.
-Sikhs big in motors parts and petrol pumps
-non Sikh Punjabese big in eadible such as Dalda other than Masala
-Brahmins big in Banarasi saris

as was predicted IG unleashed Income tax raids for 3 long years IT wallah raided and raided and raided the most fortunate got 4 raids
on average, the bania class held their line and beat up the raids with onree one causality one young Mr. Mehra stuffed 8 bags full of cash and gold
and chucked it in his neighbors house but against the norm this neighbor did not return the bags, (later the neighbor used that money and started the Sunbeam school) the Bania class since then have not voted Congress, last time Mukhtar Ansari gave a fight due to the moslim votes and Bangla desis votes(yeah! Benaras also is inflicted with this BD disease) this time around the yuvraj of Raja Benaras is slated to contest for congress, BJP have 3 candidates, 4 if one considers MMJ
1- RNS hisself,
2 RNS son a bit weak in the head and politically kinda unknown
3- LBS grandson, strongest most liked among the 3, he is NaMo favorite and has the ability to confuse congressis to vote for him using LBS name
plus he is very popular among the Muslim Bunkars of Benarsi Saris and Carpet weavers, that's 3 plus.

me ain't saying who will contest, just the applicants.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 26 Feb 2014 10:47

Paul wrote:
Please do not take my statement on Sitaraman seriously, it was meant in jest. She needs to do a lot more to deserve a Lok Sabha ticket.

Paul ji; thanks for the clarification, it is important, because the type of statement you made in jest is made in deathly seriousness here by some.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 26 Feb 2014 10:52

johneeG wrote: Sanku saar,
do you mean to say that one must blindly support BJP in whatever they do? Isn't it a good thing that people have their own independent view of what is good and what is bad and then support

johneeG -- asking for a blind, and completely airy fairy whine fest to end is a call for blind support is it ? Either keep bashing up or keep a blind support ? The below is one such example

These so-called national leaders are neither popular with cadre nor can they win elections. They are not so great in their administration either.

Yeah, all the national leaders were born with Gandhi surname and went to the top on platter.

Seriously, you REALLY need introspection here.

BJP or any other political party only when they think it stands for the good? Otherwise, what is the difference between supporters of various political parties if they blindly support their respective parties?

We have to discuss that BJP is good now ? Seriously ? Lets get real, in any place where common sense existed, BJP is TINA. It is only the purest safforn syndrome which dictates that BJP must take agni pariksha while others get a free ride.

For example, you seem to believe that there was no infighting in BJP. On the other hand, across the spectrum, it seems to be an accepted fact that there was infighting(and perhaps still is) in BJP. .

Sir ji, I am not into believing, I am into knowing. Lets have meaningful data point, and I will change my mind. So far I dont see any data points which suggest D4 or this or that.

I do see a collection of individuals with individual ambitions working together as a group for mutual goal with pulls and pressure, but infighting -- no .

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 26 Feb 2014 11:55

IMHO, for long term in TN, BJP should appropriate symbols of local history for visibility and growth. One such icon could be late Muthuramalinga Thevar, though currently he is reduced to being an icon of a particular caste.
I have heard about him growing up whenever AIADMK guys go and honour him on his anniversaries but I haven't done a detailed study on him, except wikipedia

,

The pillars of Thevar's political thought were spiritualism, nationalism, anti-communism, anti-imperialism and non-Congressism (wanting to create a non-Congress political alternative).

From the link he was a bit controversial too, learned Gurus can throw light on this.
More, there is a party which he had stared called Forward Bloc, maybe BJP can do an arrangement with them.

vic · Post by **vic** » 26 Feb 2014 12:37

nageshks wrote:
vic wrote:BJP killed off UP electoral base for a long time with a geriatric idiot Ram Lal Gupta (?) as CM. BJP needs to wash off drawing room politicians and force them to contest tough seats like:-

Jaitely
Sushma who has turned traitor to the cause
Murli Manohar Joshi
Jaswant Singh
Yashwant Sinha
Venkaih
Ananth Kumar
javedkar etc

They can be given ceremonial posts later like Governorships and Ambassadorships, if they don't want to contest tough Lok Sabha seats. Giving them easy seats, is injustice to ground level real leaders.
Excellent suggestion. I have the following suggestions. Since they are all national leaders, they should fight hard seats as an example to the cadre.

Arun Jaitley - Last actual elections he fought was in Delhi to become some student leader. Let him fight again in Delhi, probably against Sandeep Dikshit (East Delhi) or Zero Loss Sibal (Chandni Chowk). If Jaitley loses, I assure you it is zero loss for BJP.

Sushma (Chinnamma of Telangana) - she should not be denied the privilege of fighting from her favourite state, not after she has worked incessantly, destroying BJP chances in AP for it. Suggest Khammam (the battle of the hags with Sumo Renuka is too pleasing an image to be foregone so easily).

Murli Manohar Joshi - Why not send him to Phulpur or Bhadohi? Both are close to his Varanasi, and both are seats which account for a lot of prestige.

Jaswant Singh - Well, he has his constituency, Darjeeling. Why not try to retain it, without support from the GJM this time? He should have made himself popular in Darjeeling in five years, no?

Yashwant Sinha - Now, this one is hard. His Hazaribagh seat he will lose, he has become unpopular there. We don't want him mucking up BJP changes in other Jharkhand seats. Maybe he should fight in Koderma against Babulal Marandi?

Venkaiah Naidu - Well, his home district, Nellore, has been freed for him. He should contest Nellore. Let him go to SeemaAndhra and show us how he can convince voters how he defended their interests?

Ananth Kumar - Now, this is another hard one. I fear he will mess up Bangalore South against Nandan Nilekani. Where can he be sent? Maybe he can move just a few miles away to Bangalore Rural and fight against Kumaraswamy and D K Shivakumar's brother. Beating both is no mean feat, and is truly prestigious, I can assure you.

Javadekar - Come on, what is more prestigious than beating Shudder Power or his daughter? He should fight in Baramati or Madha.

Do suggest alternatives if you wish to.

+1

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 Feb 2014 17:17

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 Feb 2014 17:30

Scenario-2 is Rajnath Singh according to Yashwant Deshmukh.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Feb 2014 17:32

Modi is showing he is the Lion King. He has gobbled all the little Regionals in the forest. Now strengthened he is attacking Congress's secular herd - Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).

Now LJP may not be a big force in Bihar politics in itself and may have played third fiddle to Congress and Lalu's Rashtriya Janata Dal, but with this alliance Paswans who were fragmented b/w BJP and LJP would all be coming to NDA.

Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) too would bring in the Koeris, which till now have been supportive of JD(U).

Without Koeri support, Nitish's EBC alliance does not gel. With many Yadavs also going for Modi (some say up to 30%) Lalu too would be weakened.

When both adversaries of BJP looking weak, Muslims too would be confused whom to give vote to, thus effectively splitting their vote as well.

It is not so much about the parties, BJP has agreed to ally with - RLSP, LJP, in Bihar, but the jatis they bring along to the coalition.

BJP can now expect 30% of Yadavs as well as Paswans, Koeris coming to NDA in large numbers.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 26 Feb 2014 17:34

^^True. The beginnings of a sweep of Bihar can vaguely be discerned at present... contours will become clearer by the time NM finishes his 4 rallies in the state in March.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Feb 2014 17:42

This week new allies: RSLP, LJP, DMDK!

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 26 Feb 2014 17:48

RajeshA wrote:This week new allies: RSLP, LJP, DMDK!

True. Can't however say that they were 'acquired' on lotus' terms... Chalo, 'em terms weren't entirely one-sided against lotus, at least...

Next week, time to rope in a few brand new allies... lezsee... TRS? BJD? AGP? Kerala Congress? B Srramulu's party? Just guessing here.... onlee...

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Feb 2014 17:51

muraliravi wrote:
SwamyG wrote: If she gets 30+ seats, then she is cooking...
Never in TN history has ADMK ever won 18+ seats in any LS election, forget 30+. Never ever has ADMK's vote share in an LS election crossed 30%. Whereas in Assembly polls, the only time admk's vote share dipped below 30% was in 1996. This is the reality of TN and AIADMK. In lok sabha, she never does well in spite of all the hype before elections. DMK is not going anywhere.

She can dream all she wants, she will never become PM. At best her party will get 20 seats.

Past results are no guarantee for the future.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Feb 2014 18:49

SwamyG wrote:
muraliravi wrote:
Never in TN history has ADMK ever won 18+ seats in any LS election, forget 30+. Never ever has ADMK's vote share in an LS election crossed 30%. Whereas in Assembly polls, the only time admk's vote share dipped below 30% was in 1996. This is the reality of TN and AIADMK. In lok sabha, she never does well in spite of all the hype before elections. DMK is not going anywhere.

She can dream all she wants, she will never become PM. At best her party will get 20 seats.
Past results are no guarantee for the future.

Sir, I can in general agree with that statement. But there is a reason why people vote for her in local polls and a good chunk move away from her/admk in LS polls. This trend has been there since 1977. Please dig further to find answers. I repeat, she will not cross 20 seats (there are reliable inputs too from her own party indicating the same)

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Feb 2014 18:50

Hari Seldon wrote:^^True. The beginnings of a sweep of Bihar can vaguely be discerned at present... contours will become clearer by the time NM finishes his 4 rallies in the state in March.

Hari sir,

The bigger success is that now UPA is unraveling in Bihar, just rjd and cong cant do much against BJP. So even if paswan would have fought alone, BJP could have done very well in bihar, but if his vote gets transferred to NDA, they can sweep.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 Feb 2014 18:57

congress should try forging an alliance with Laloo+Nitish together. Bring the erstwhile samajwaadi bros together.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Feb 2014 19:01

muraliravi wrote: Sir, I can in general agree with that statement. But there is a reason why people vote for her in local polls and a good chunk move away from her/admk in LS polls. This trend has been there since 1977. Please dig further to find answers. I repeat, she will not cross 20 seats (there are reliable inputs too from her own party indicating the same)

MuraliRavi-ji,
What would be your educated guess, now that we are seeing the Alliances firming up? BJP has PMK, MDMK, DMDK, Kongu parties, IJK and a couple of others I have no doubt missed in this list. DMK has VCK, PT, and a couple of Muslim parties. AIADMK has the Leftists. There is also a rump Congress - even now, I suspect that the Congress has some of its vote left in TN. What voteshare would you assign to the four alliances? And what is the seat share you suspect will happen?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Feb 2014 19:29

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Sir, I can in general agree with that statement. But there is a reason why people vote for her in local polls and a good chunk move away from her/admk in LS polls. This trend has been there since 1977. Please dig further to find answers. I repeat, she will not cross 20 seats (there are reliable inputs too from her own party indicating the same)
MuraliRavi-ji,
What would be your educated guess, now that we are seeing the Alliances firming up? BJP has PMK, MDMK, DMDK, Kongu parties, IJK and a couple of others I have no doubt missed in this list. DMK has VCK, PT, and a couple of Muslim parties. AIADMK has the Leftists. There is also a rump Congress - even now, I suspect that the Congress has some of its vote left in TN. What voteshare would you assign to the four alliances? And what is the seat share you suspect will happen?

Nagesh ji,

I think I have a decent feel for the vote shares (my seat predictions can be way off). Take it with a bucket of salt.

AIADMK+Left: 30-32%
DMK+: 21-22%
INC: 5-7%
BJP+: ???

Here is the scenario with BJP+ in my opinion. At the outset, let me mention very clearly that I am very sad, BJP has decided to go for an alliance this drunkard fool (he lives 2 streets away from my home) and I get all the grapevine I can get.

The MDMK (Vaiko) and PMK will get their standard vote shares of 5-6% and in fact may even do better because of alliance with national party. So together these 2 parties will have about 12-13% vote share in 2014. The issue is that their vote share are concentrated in regions (which is good for them to win seats, but not great for BJP which would like transferable votes for it to win seats in its name). Coming to DMDK, his vote share has eroded quite a bit as Jaya has poached a lot of his cadre back, but he still has about 5-6% vote share. If you add IJK and other parties like Kongu Nadu Party, the NDA in TN without BJP will have close to 20% vote share. Now how much does BJP have, if surveys are to be believed, they are well over 10%. So this would actually make BJP+the largest group in terms of vote share. I would not be surprised if they touch the 33% mark. But here are the weak links, Vijaykanth's vote share is on the decline and I am not sure if allying with BJP can stop the erosion (it may very well help him, because if you notice, parties in TN tend to do better in Lok Sabha polls when they have a alliance with a national party, because people feel that this is their chance of getting TN interests represented in the lok sabha). The other weak link is the accuracy of BJP's vote share prediction. On the ground, i see some churning, but only in urban centers.

If congress does not ally with DMK, it wont cross 7% vote for sure.

Now with regard to seats, its very very tuf to predict anything. congress wont get anything. My wild guess is ADMK -19, DMK-11, BJP+MDMK+PMK+.... = 8 seats. The reason for NDA's low tally in spite of good vote share, is the scattered share of votes and not much transferability. But who knows, as i said, i am reasonably confident of my vote share predictions than seat shares.

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 26 Feb 2014 19:43

disha wrote:
gandharva wrote:....

One little problem with Jainism is that you can't do farming and you have to pay who takes the sin (on himself) of killing jeevas to grow vegitables etc..

Can we gather support for Palitana SEZ. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palitana

Idea is to Create SEZ for Innovation -- Theme Religious Approach.... How to save lives etc. Jains should be encouraged to INNOVATE not just trade. Yes Older Jains like to invest in few business only. they think which business is less paapy ( Sins )...

In Anglosphere - Call it environmental friendly , green organic farming, Innovations in Seeds , Innovations in textile.

We need to coin the term "Cooperative Research" ---- Similar to Cooperative amul dairy etc.

What is Cooperative Research --- e.g. Textile traders have lots of Ideas to innovate in fabrics but cannot make. Their association starts "Cooperative research" . People may membership fees. Can claim R&D expenses. Why do only big guys can do research and get tax breaks for R&D.
Small traders Gives small small project to Cooperative research team... it is this small industrial research will change SME sectors....