Understanding the US - Again

[sanjaykumar]

This will lead to very serious reassessments in Canada and Europe.

I wonder if this will release a pro-nuclear weapons movement in Canada. Which would have been unthinkable some time ago.

[sanjaykumar]

They stated that Venezuelan oil is theirs. I also wonder if the plan is to undercut Russian and Arab oil prices. India and Japan may be grateful. Strange results from game theory and the law of unintended consequences.

[Amber G.]

Nothing from China yet? Seems ominous...

China’s foreign ministry expressed shock, strongly condemned the U.S. strikes, and said they violate Venezuela’s sovereignty and international law

[Amber G.]

India has not issued a high-level political statement ( Modi or EAM Dr S. Jaishankar) expressing support or condemnation of the U.S. strikes or the capture of Nicolás Maduro as of now.

However, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has issued a travel advisory following the U.S. military operation in Venezuela:

The MEA urged all Indian nationals to avoid non-essential travel to Venezuela due to security uncertainties.

Indian citizens already there were advised to exercise extreme caution, limit movement, and stay in contact with the Indian Embassy in Caracas.
This is typical of India’s cautious diplomatic posture when major geopolitical events erupt — prioritizing citizen safety and avoiding early alignment in superpower confrontations.



No formal condemnation or endorsement tied to the U.S. military action from PM Modi, Dr Jaishankar, or the MEA regarding the legality of the operation.

India has not explicitly called out sovereignty or international law in this specific situation (unlike some other global actors) — at least not in public MEA statements as of now.

India’s likely reasoning (based on its usual foreign policy principles):

India often refrains from taking sides in disputes involving sovereign states and major powers. It generally emphasizes non-interference, diplomacy, and respect for international law.

Official communications in crisis situations often start with advisories and monitoring before broader statements are issued — and may include private diplomatic engagement with key partners.

[drnayar]

They stated that Venezuelan oil is theirs. I also wonder if the plan is to undercut Russian and Arab oil prices. India and Japan may be grateful. Strange results from game theory and the law of unintended consequences.

Orangutan has assured china of oil supplies ... From Venezuela!

( Of side note : more like a gun to head , control and cut off whenever they want to)

[drnayar]

They stated that Venezuelan oil is theirs. I also wonder if the plan is to undercut Russian and Arab oil prices. India and Japan may be grateful. Strange results from game theory and the law of unintended consequences.

American control over oil prices does NOT mean it will come cheap to other countries

The whole adventure being to prop up the "petro dollar"

[A_Gupta]

India should say it mediated between Trump and Maduro and got Maduro to surrender quietly.

[A_Gupta]

The Chosen reports:
Lee Jun-seok Warns U.S. Maduro Arrest Logic Could Apply to Kim Jong-un
Reform Party leader expresses concern over potential misuse by rivals, urges South Korea to clarify stance on unilateral force
https://www.chosun.com/english/national ... C5GUG2U5Q/

Reform Party leader Lee Jun-seok said on the 4th, regarding the U.S. military’s arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife the previous day, “The same logic could be applied to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.”

The representative posted on Facebook that day, stating, “The U.S. Attorney General, based on charges that President Maduro led the influx of cocaine into the U.S. and supported terrorist organizations with the proceeds, designated him not as a ‘head of state’ but as the ‘leader of a transnational criminal organization,’” and expressed this view.

He added, “The international community has long raised similar criminal charges against North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.” The representative cited examples including collusion in the production and export of methamphetamine and opium through Room 39 of the Workers’ Party of Korea, hacking into global financial institutions and cryptocurrency exchanges through the ‘Lazarus Group’ under the Reconnaissance General Bureau, stealing funds worth several billion dollars, producing and distributing ‘supernotes’—sophisticated counterfeits of US$100 bills, the 2017 assassination of Kim Jong-nam using the VX nerve agent at Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia, and the detention and torture-related death of American college student Otto Warmbier.

The representative said, “Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Putin are likely closely watching this situation.” He expressed concern that the U.S. military operation based on its legal justification could be misinterpreted as a signal allowing China to apply the pretext of ‘suppressing separatist forces’ to Taiwan and Russia to apply the pretext of ‘eliminating Nazis’ to Ukraine.

The representative stated, “What South Korea needs now is to clearly declare to the international community the principle that unilateral use of force should not become a universal means of resolving international disputes.” He added, “If South Korea does not clarify this principle, when China advances similar logic in the Taiwan Strait tomorrow or Russia does so in Eastern Europe, we will have no words to respond,” and wrote, “I expect the South Korean government to ensure the safety of its nationals residing in Venezuela and to take an active and independent role in supporting the principle of easing tensions in the international community.”

[A_Gupta]

https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/20 ... 39092?s=20

Thomas Massie
@RepThomasMassie

If this action were constitutionally sound, the Attorney General wouldn’t be tweeting that they’ve arrested the President of a sovereign country and his wife for possessing guns in violation of a 1934 U.S. firearm law.

Also:

Thomas Massie

@RepThomasMassie
25 page indictment but no mention of fentanyl or stolen oil. Search it for yourself.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl

[Vayutuvan]

Congress not informed because it leaks : this is OM’d words live press conference
Wow so henceforth US army can SERVE AND ENFORCE US court subpoenas and indictments
Welcome to Orangeverse!!

Obama did not inform the COTUS when he ordered the army to assassinate Osama. Bush did not inform COTUS when he ordered the army to abduct Noriega from Panama.

One each from a Dumbocrat president and a GOPrick President.

[Zynda]

Mostly many of the Venezuelan generals were bought off/threatened or promised lot of favors...no major resistance from Venezuela's defense forces. Venezuela had 5000 Igla-S MANPADS, Su-30SM and S-300 (the most modern weapons IIRC)...probably US had strategies to jam/disable S-300 and tackle Su-30s incase some adventures arises. US did confirm injuries to few personnel and battle damages to their hardware...probably Maduro had his own group of loyal soldiers at the location where he was saying, which gave some resistance. Anyways, power is power...only US can get away with these kinds of egregious acts.

[chanakyaa]

They stated that Venezuelan oil is theirs. I also wonder if the plan is to undercut ....

If the Venez. oil reserves are close to what media reports suggesting, the heavy to very-heavy type crude is likely to undercut heavy/sour blend exported by Bear. It will take a lot of time and investment to scale up the capacity, but when it ready, countries may be asked/threatened/incentivized to wean off certain type for crude in exchange for reliable supply (and lots of it) from Venezuela. Someone is getting halal'ed, is it going to be panda or bear or both? India will be also impacted, but not in drivers seat. Waste Asia less so, but who cares about them. For now the Venez. story is primarily oil-story. If Eye-ran falls, that will bring unlimited natgas, and this will not bode well for.... All this, still in the realm of some theoretical possibilities, so will have to see how it unfolds.

[Vayutuvan]

...probably Maduro had his own group of loyal soldiers at the location where he was saying, which gave some resistance. Anyways, power is power...only US can get away with these kinds of egregious acts.

It seems Maduro's security detail is 100% Cuban. He had no trust in the Venezuelan army to protect him. (as per Fox news )

[A_Gupta]

Bin Laden was not head of state. Panama - it’s National Assembly - had actually declared war on the US before Bush acted.

[Vayutuvan]

Democrats are clutching at straws now.

[Vayutuvan]

Not that I support Orange-utan.

[A_Gupta]

Of course you support Orangutan.

[A_Gupta]

In any case, all the political-constitutional experts I heard today said that the original design of the US constitution on war powers doesn't work very well. Congress people don't want to take responsibility for declaring a war the conduct of which they have no control over; but can be held responsible for starting by their constituents. What if things go sideways? They prefer the president to do whatever, and they make noises as suits them.

[Vayutuvan]

Of course you support Orangutan.

lol. I remember somebody complaining about Obama’s drone strikes in Shittistan being impersonal. Oh wait. It was you my friend.

[Vayutuvan]

Bin Laden was not head of state. Panama - it’s National Assembly - had actually declared war on the US before Bush acted.

Moving the goalpost aren’t we now? Every dumbocrat was talking about Orange-Tuan not informing the COTUS. “Head of state” or not is not the issue (for dumbocrats).

[Rudradev]

It's really amusing to watch the assumptions being recited in post after post. US will undercut Russian oil with VE oil, US will have a gun to China's head with the supply of VE oil. It's as if, by kidnapping Maduro, the US magically gained control over VE oil in its entirety.

Even the Americans who think that being friends with Pakistan will somehow provide the US with access to rear earth minrails in Afghanistan, might balk at the credulity implicit in such assumptions.

VE is now run by Maduro's handpicked Vice President and her very Chavismo government. The US first needs to supplant this whole govt with Señora Machado-Kejriwal and her crew. Then they need to take (and maintain) control of all the oil-extraction, transportation, refining, and shipping infrastructure in VE.

Then they need to defend all this from what will be a Viet Cong style guerilla war, run by the loyalist VE army plus an estimated 3 million armed irregular militia, plus Bolivarist/FARC/Shining Path militias who arrive from neighboring countries, plus forces brought in by huge multinational cartels of narcotrafficante from all over LatAm— who are dying to see VE enveloped in an anarchy they could take maximum advantage of.

A guerilla war that will be waged in a vast jungle/mountain theatre such as Ho Chih Minh would have killed to stage, by insurgents fighting on home turf against a foreign occupying force. A guerilla war that China, Russia and probably many others will support— with financial, diplomatic and military aid— to the hilt.

So let's see in which utensil this grand design of Trump's finally ends up. Unless the grand design was only to distract the pigeon-brained goroid electorate from any memory of the Epstein files. In meeting that modest goal, it will probably succeed.

[drnayar]

It's really amusing to watch the assumptions being recited in post after post. US will undercut Russian oil with VE oil, US will have a gun to China's head with the supply of VE oil. It's as if, by kidnapping Maduro, the US magically gained control over VE oil in its entirety.

Even the Americans who think that being friends with Pakistan will somehow provide the US with access to rear earth minrails in Afghanistan, might balk at the credulity implicit in such assumptions.

VE is now run by Maduro's handpicked Vice President and her very Chavismo government. The US first needs to supplant this whole govt with Señora Machado-Kejriwal and her crew. Then they need to take (and maintain) control of all the oil-extraction, transportation, refining, and shipping infrastructure in VE.

Then they need to defend all this from what will be a Viet Cong style guerilla war, run by the loyalist VE army plus an estimated 3 million armed irregular militia, plus Bolivarist/FARC/Shining Path militias who arrive from neighboring countries, plus forces brought in by huge multinational cartels of narcotrafficante from all over LatAm— who are dying to see VE enveloped in an anarchy they could take maximum advantage of.

A guerilla war that will be waged in a vast jungle/mountain theatre such as Ho Chih Minh would have killed to stage, by insurgents fighting on home turf against a foreign occupying force. A guerilla war that China, Russia and probably many others will support— with financial, diplomatic and military aid— to the hilt.

So let's see in which utensil this grand design of Trump's finally ends up. Unless the grand design was only to distract the pigeon-brained goroid electorate from any memory of the Epstein files. In meeting that modest goal, it will probably succeed.

I can guess US approach to this :

1.Use money and lots of it to buy and bribe anything breathing
2.use "democracy" to ram through female kejri s presidency
3. Use mercenaries/ woke Venezuelans to control media and kinetic measures to disappear people

It may work but China and a lot of "interested parties" will be more than eager to start a "Ukraine quagmire" to blow up uncles "bottom"... What's good for the goose is good for gander and all that

[uddu]

https://x.com/BenjaminNorton/status/2007665390420406419
@BenjaminNorton
The US attack on Venezuela is part of a larger US imperialist assault on all of Latin America.

This is the US empire's plan. It was spelled out clearly in the Trump administration's 2025 National Security Strategy.

The US seeks to forcibly impose its hegemony in the entire western hemisphere, reviving the colonial Monroe Doctrine (now known as the "Donroe Doctrine").

The plan is for US corporations to control all of the region's strategic natural resources, including critical minerals and rare earth elements. The US wants to create a new supply chain in the western hemisphere that cuts out China, to prepare for future conflict with Beijing.

Trump administration officials recognize that manufacturing jobs are not actually coming back to the US, so they admit in the National Security Strategy that they want to "near-shore manufacturing" to Latin America. US corporations hope to exploit low-paid Latin American workers to make their products, cutting out China.

This is also why a new US-dominated supply chain in the western hemisphere is needed: not only because the US military-industrial complex needs to remove China from the supply chain for the weapons that it is making to prepare for a potential future war with China; but also because Washington wants to economically decouple from China, and thinks Latin America can help it do that.

Moreover, the US empire seeks to control all of the strategic infrastructure in the region. So the Trump administration is going to brazenly threaten Latin American countries to force China to sell any investments it has in infrastructure projects.

Trump already forced Panama to pressure the Hong Kong company that owned ports surrounding the Panama Canal to sell them to Wall Street giant BlackRock.

It is likely that the US will also target Peru's Port of Chancay, one of the most important ports in the region, which was built by China. Washington could even blackmail Latin American governments to force them to impose restrictions on Chinese investment in the region.

The National Security Council shows how the Trump administration is obsessed with trying to force the countries of Latin America to cut off their ties with China. This is Cold War Two.

In his first trip abroad as secretary of state, Marco Rubio went to Panama, where he forced the country to withdraw from China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Trump administration is going to massively increase its pressure on other countries in the region to withdraw from the BRI.

Likewise, Trump blatantly meddled in Honduras' election in 2025 and backed an electoral coup d'etat. Honduras' new right-wing US puppet regime will likely formally break diplomatic ties with the People's Republic of China.

The US also wants to use Honduras as a base of operations for attacks on the Sandinista government in neighboring Nicaragua.

After bombing and occupying Venezuela, Trump and Marco Rubio want to carry out similar imperialist regime-change wars on Nicaragua and Cuba. Rubio has dedicated his entire career to overthrowing their socialist revolutions. It is a political crusade for him.

The Trump administration's goal is simple: to impose right-wing US puppet regimes in every country in Latin America, which will obediently serve the interests of Washington and Wall Street, and sell off their assets to US investors.

Two important elections are coming up in 2026 in countries with left-wing governments: Brazil (in October) and Colombia (in May). It is guaranteed that the Trump administration is going to meddle in those elections to try to put in power obedient right-wing US puppets (like Javier Milei in Argentina).

Trump is also threatening to bomb Mexico, which has a very popular left-wing, independent government. Mexico has strongly opposed these US threats, saying they would be an attack on Mexico's sovereignty. But the US empire doesn't care a bit about sovereignty.

The superficial, puerile rhetoric about "democracy" that we hear from Western officials and pundits is ridiculous. It is impossible for the countries of Latin America (and the Global South as a whole) to practice democracy when the world's most powerful and deadliest empire is constantly interfering in their elections, attacking them, imposing sanctions on them, and sponsoring coups.

True democracy is impossible while imperialism exists.

https://x.com/OunkaOnX/status/2007358498024075280
@OunkaOnX
The reason why Venezuela is under attack

U.S. Southern Command chief General Laura Richardson just said the truth out loud:

the U.S. focus in Latin America isn’t “democracy” — it’s controlling oil, lithium, gold, and rare earth minerals. Venezuela, with the largest oil reserves and key strategic resources, is the main target

[uddu]

Europeans were so sure of Russia invading them that they almost forgot about Murika. The Danes need to be liberated from the King and Queen and Democratized..
https://x.com/KatieMiller/status/2007541679293944266
@KatieMiller
SOON

https://x.com/DKambUSA/status/2007607563601273179
@DKambUSA
Just a friendly reminder about the US and the Kingdom of Denmark: We are close allies and should continue to work together as such. US security is also Greenland’s and Denmark’s security. Greenland is already part of NATO. The Kingdom of Denmark and the United States work together to ensure security in the Arctic. The Kingdom of Denmark has significantly boosted its Arctic security efforts - in 2025 alone, we committed USD 13,7 bn that can be used in the Arctic and North Atlantic. Because we take our joint security seriously.

And yes, we expect full respect for the territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark.

[S_Madhukar]

Does anyone know post-Mao, post-Deng Sino intervention that has actually worked , Ex-South Asia? They are at best good engineers supplying equipments- never seen any of them fighting in a militia… my guess is VE is too far to mount a serious threat unless some kind of LatAm nationalism rises to the fore. There is no Soviet Union either to provides endless supply. They are turncoats who will negotiate and accept something. This is also the reason the world should refuse a Sino hegemony anywhere. This is 1-0 US and it will be 10-0 easily, Cheen will be nowhere near… they will try to protect their local pond by doing the same old exercises

[uddu]

https://x.com/mario4thenorth/status/2007433870212272265
@mario4thenorth
Good news & bad news.

Good news for the end of a narco-state.

Bad news for the Canadian economy.

Canadians have no idea what this means for our oil industry & our economy.

A US “friendly” President will be installed.

The US will lift sanctions from Venezuela & heavy crude oil will be imported into the US.

Meaning, Canada’s primary customer for crude, the US, will now have cheaper options available.

By Canada not pushing through with Keystone XL, expansion to Asia and Europe, will cost us dearly.

Trump wanted Keystone XL. He mentioned it several times earlier this year.

And now he’s got something bigger and better: the biggest oil reserves on earth.

This was the key leverage we had on CUSMA… the US dependency on our oil.

Now that’s gone.

Carney took too long to negotiate, Trump likely realized that Canada will never supply the quantities of oil/gas the US wants/needs & instead, he “diversified”.

I know this is going to make Carney sweat.

It’s not good news for Canada’s economy.

We had a potential for a monopoly & we blew it.

https://x.com/Iyervval/status/2007459071817920911
I have it on good authority that the US military action in Venezuela only stopped at the capture of Maduro because
@narendramodi
spoke to both
@realDonaldTrump
&
@DRodriguez_en
early in the morning & mediated a scaling down of the regime change operation. Thank you Modi Ji!

[uddu]

https://x.com/MENAUnleashed/status/2007347309667876987
@MENAUnleashed
I think most people misunderstand that the US has officially launched the war for Taiwan. Venezuela's energy exports mostly go to China and will now stop. Somaliland and South Yemen countries are being created to block exports and imports to China through red sea. I think the arabian gulf will be next. The US has already initiated world war 3. We are just waiting for China to make the move. Stay safe everyone.

[uddu]

https://x.com/DcWalaDesi/status/2007644486877491604
@DcWalaDesi
Breaking— Plans for secret U.S. raid to capture Maduro leaked to the Washington Post and New York Times before it happened, but both decided not to publish to protect U.S. troops. (Unlike desi media that tells terrorists LIVE about military operations).

[Y. Kanan]

My take: if the "world" doesn't go all in on backing Venezuelan resistance to US designs (the way Russia and China went all in on Vietnam back in the 1960's), then we can all kiss our newfound prosperity and Independence goodbye, because it's hello "petrodollar 2.0" and another 70 years of Americans living high off the financial system they created to ensure their own dominance, while everyone else has to struggle and get their prosperity the hard way. Meanwhile the US will be assassinating and regime changing anywhere it pleases, insuring no resistance can emerge before getting squashed.

TLDR: If we let America win in Venezuela we're all going to pay the price.

[drnayar]

US DITCH NOBEL WINNER MACHADO

TRUMP: ‘She doesn't have support or respect within her country’

TRAITOR Maria Corina Machado did everything to overthrow an Elected Govt. Was even ready to sell Nation to US. JUST FOR POWER & now US throws her in dustbin after using her!

Every Traitor is treated the same by handlers. They know Joh Desh Ka Na Ho Saka Woh Kisi Aur Ka Kya Hoga!

https://x.com/MumbaichaDon/status/2007714345191649446

[drnayar]

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum calls on the United Nations to step in to stop Trump.

She says Trump broke article 2 of the charter of the United Nations.
https://x.com/WPolitics1/status/2007473786409664601

is mexico next ?!!

[drnayar]

Not long ago Libya gave up its weapons programme under Gaddafi

And soon .. he ended up losing his life and the country splintered and thrown into stone age

The Russians [ or for that matter China nor India ] now will NEVER trust the US or Trump for any negotiations

US will occupy Greenland ..matter of time

the threat to Europe is not Russia but America !

"Democracy is all but a tool for America to control foreign states"

[SRajesh]

^^This is just the same playbook being used.
Roman Republic and later the Roman Empire did just that
Roman Citizenship was the token used in the beginning.
Initially it was grain supply for free grain dole later on it was just resources needed to keep the War Mahine rolling.
OM probably fits in as one those later Emperors who needed 'Divus' badly and did everthing to acheive it!!( Good Bad or Ugly that act maybe!!)

[chetak]

They stated that Venezuelan oil is theirs. I also wonder if the plan is to undercut Russian and Arab oil prices. India and Japan may be grateful. Strange results from game theory and the law of unintended consequences.

American control over oil prices does NOT mean it will come cheap to other countries

The whole adventure being to prop up the "petro dollar"

sirji,

It's more likely that.....................

"petro dollar"



forcefully protect reserve currency status


dollar as reserve currency makes light of their trillions in debt even as the petro $ tamely follows

this guy is crazy like a fox.

No other POTUS since WWII has ever had such stones

if the amrikis go after eyeraan and countries like nigeria, the chinks are done for.

In the face of such a display of raw and naked power, the eyraabs are better slaves than masters.

many major capitals would have gone on to their backfoot, nor really knowing what stance they should now take

the answer will slowly emerge in the fulness of time

[chetak]

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum calls on the United Nations to step in to stop Trump.

She says Trump broke article 2 of the charter of the United Nations.
https://x.com/WPolitics1/status/2007473786409664601

is mexico next ?!!

drnayar ji,

likely to be near the the top of a very short list that includes countries like cuba et al

[uddu]

French shared their displeasure. France will be hit with some riots. Jihadis will burn paris. German reaction was guarded. Some Spanish MP did make some comment. It will not be taken seriously.

[drnayar]

Starlink is providing free broadband service to the people of Venezuela through February 3, ensuring continued connectivity.

https://x.com/starlink/status/2007672602958197008


Is starlink a conduit for regime changes ?!!

[SRajesh]

Now that Heavy Crude is almost in the bag. lets check why this happened.
Three heavy crude producers:
1.Russia
2. Venezuela
3. Canada
And of three Venezuelan deposits are the highest in terms of extractable oil.
US imports highest from Canada.
As as Guptaji has posted US refineries are geared up for Heavy crude Venezuela ticks all boxes.
Next issue would be Lithium:
Although Chile has highest reserves but Bolivia's Salar de Uyuni sits on highest reserves
Bolivia headed by Christian Democrat President
Kast who is going to take up post in March 2026 as Chilean Preseident is a Right wing Conserrvative Party candidate, probably Xtian RC dominated!!
Now coming to Rare Earth Minerals, Brazil holds second highest reserves
Lula is left wing President heading Brazil
And if my guess is correct, next in line would be Lula!!
And that would secure These three things for US: Oil, Lithium and REM!!!
This will shaft China's investments in South America!!
Once Americas are secured then and only then they will move EU/Africa and Asia
Until then all pots will be kept simmering but not allowed to boil and reduction of sauce happens

[S_Madhukar]

So will Saudis agree to renew the petro$ agreement? Or is that the reason the VE action was needed to preserve the existing petro$ ? That still doesn’t solve long term debt burden unless treasury buying commences -

[SRajesh]

ChatGPT analysis if Unkil floods the market with Venezuelan and Canadian Heavy and US Light :
Immediate Impact on Oil Prices
Adding large volumes of oil to the market would increase global supply.
Supply increase → downward pressure on oil prices, all else equal.
GCC/OPEC countries, which rely heavily on high oil revenues, could see reduced revenue, especially if prices drop below their budgetary break-even levels.
Example: Saudi Arabia’s break-even price is around $80–85/barrel; if the influx pushes prices below that, budget deficits increase.
Impact on Market Share
Venezuelan and Canadian heavy crudes are typically heavier and sour, which competes with similar Gulf grades like Saudi Arabian heavy (e.g., Arab Heavy) or Kuwaiti crudes.
US light crudes (WTI, Bakken, Eagle Ford) are lighter, competing more with light sweet grades like Saudi Light or UAE Murban.
Net effect: GCC countries may lose market share, particularly in Asia and Europe, as refiners might prefer cheaper imported oil from Venezuela, Canada, or the US if the prices fall.
Impact on OPEC/OPEC+ Coordination
OPEC’s power rests on controlling supply to support prices.
A US-led flood would force OPEC to respond, likely by cutting production to stabilize prices.
This could strain OPEC unity if countries are affected differently:
High-cost producers (like Iran, Iraq) may push for cuts.
Low-cost producers (like Saudi Arabia) can endure lower prices longer but may still face revenue loss.
Impact on Gulf Economies
GCC countries are heavily oil-dependent (40–70% of government revenue in many cases).
Lower prices → budget deficits, forcing austerity measures, tapping sovereign wealth funds, or borrowing.
Countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait have some buffer due to large reserves.
Smaller Gulf states like Bahrain or Oman may feel more pressure.
Geopolitical Consequences
US flooding the market could be seen as a geopolitical tool to reduce OPEC leverage.
GCC countries might:
Strengthen ties with Russia or China for alternative markets.
Accelerate diversification of their economies (like Saudi Vision 2030).
Push OPEC+ to collaborate more closely to stabilize prices.
Refiner Economics
Flooding the market with heavy crude helps refineries in the US, China, and India that can handle heavy crude cheaply.
Gulf producers might need to adjust their blends or discounts to compete.
Key Nuances
US production is costly for heavy Canadian crude (oil sands), so if prices fall too low, US producers might cut back.
Venezuelan crude has sanction issues, so actual flooding depends on geopolitical moves.
Market impact depends on how fast and how much oil enters the market—small additions might be absorbed without much price impact.
Summary:
Oil prices: Likely fall.
GCC/OPEC revenue: Drops, especially for high-cost producers.
Market share: GCC may lose share to cheaper US/Canadian/Venezuelan crude.
OPEC strategy: Pressure to cut production to defend prices.
Economic impact on Gulf states: Budget stress, potential acceleration of diversification plans.
Geopolitics: Tension with the US increases, and OPEC may coordinate more tightly or explore alternative markets.