Agni-I/SR: Strategic Implications (Thread 1)

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 25 Jan 2002 23:17

In the absence of details, I compared the web photos and find that Agni-X (that is what am calling it for the time being, since so many details are not yet known, much less an official name), is 10 meters long. Thus it appears that it based on the first stage motor (10-Ton weight)of Agni-2 rather then second stage. The RV/PBV(Post Boost Vehicil) is very much the same as Agni-2Now that strongly suggests either attempt to cover-up the range of the missile OR the GOI is saying the test was done for a range of 700Km (which is what the IAF/IA want proven for use in current western border situation). But as usual the dork-media is mis-undertsanding it to mean that 700km is the range of the Agni-X missile.It is very easy to show that a 10-Ton missile with PBV will give a range of ~1,450 Km, with a 1 Ton payload fired in NORTH-WEST direction.Following are the simulation results for 10 Ton Stage-1 motor configuration of Agni-X for 1000-Kg and another one for 2000-Kg payload.IMHO the operational advantage of Agni-X are:1. Smaller size allowing easy transportation.2. Single stage configuration, giving even higher relaibility.3. Smaller RV based warhead (as against non-separting payload of Prithvi), is difficult to detect and defeat, while retaining the best of breed accuracy of Agni series.4. The missile is already pre-certified, the confuration without Stage-II is what was tested to satisfy the armed forces end-user.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For 1000 Kg payload the range is ~1500 Km. Payload = 1,250.0 Kg, Number of Stages = 2, Simulation Time Granularity = 0.200 Second
Launch Direction = 315 degrees-North, Launch Latitude = 30 degrees Segment-Name ISP(Vac) ISP(SL) Stage-Mass Fuel-Fract Burn-Time Thrust-Direction
Stage1 264.0 237.0, 10,000.0 0.86 051.0 Sec 45.0 Degree
PBV-RV 291.0 260.0, 00,100.0 1.00 050.0 Sec 45.0 Degree Stage Event Time-Sec Time-HH:MM:SS Range Altitude LOS-Range LOS-Azimuth LOS-Elevation Velocity V-angle Accn A-angle Force
Stage1 BURNOUT 51.20 0:0:51 50,869 38,749 63,934.580 314.847 36.740 3,118.584 42.207 149.9133 42.387 42,583.154
PBV-RV BURNOUT 101.20 0:1:41 180,988 136,395 228,034.122 314.375 35.825 3,032.852 36.807 6.9608 -62.417 888.146
PAYLOAD ON-PEAK 323.60 0:5:24 748,666 336,364 838,115.619 312.163 20.233 2,355.973 -0.029 8.8405 -89.996 1,127.613
PAYLOAD ON-TARGET 610.82 0:10:11 1,489,460 -87 1,486,158.496 309.065 -6.705 3,436.356 -43.799 9.7963 -89.996 1,249.526
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now for 2000-Kg jumbo Iron Bomb the range is ~950Km.Payload = 2,250.0 Kg , Number of Stages = 2, Simulation Time Granularity = 0.200 Second
Launch Direction = 315 degrees-North, Launch Latitude = 30 degrees Segment-Name ISP(Vac) ISP(SL) Stage-Mass Fuel-Fract Burn-Time Thrust-Direction
Stage1 264.0 237.0, 10,000.0 0.86 051.0 Sec 45.0 Degree
PBV-RV 291.0 260.0, 00,100.0 1.00 050.0 Sec 45.0 Degree Stage Event Time-Sec Time-HH:MM:SS Range Altitude LOS-Range LOS-Azimuth LOS-Elevation Velocity V-angle Accn A-angle Force
Stage1 BURNOUT 51.20 0:0:51 44,718 32,520 55,256.300 314.870 35.468 2,542.308 41.436 108.5721 41.382 41,918.884
PBV-RV BURNOUT 101.20 0:1:41 153,668 107,475 188,457.729 314.483 33.966 2,371.563 33.823 7.8914 -76.881 1,812.133
PAYLOAD ON-PEAK 252.80 0:4:13 481,800 206,942 531,335.874 313.289 20.705 1,940.436 -0.037 9.1914 -89.997 2,110.267
PAYLOAD ON-TARGET 470.61 0:7:51 956,732 -75 955,908.776 311.611 -4.320 2,773.198 -43.745 9.7965 -89.996 2,249.204 I have a feeling the GOI will call this (1500Km range) missile as Agni family, while calling the one based on 4 meter long stage-2 of Agni-II as the Dhanush with ~700Km range.

Sarma · Post by **Sarma** » 25 Jan 2002 23:19

Ramana thanks for the clarification. However, if as you said, warning regarding the missile testing is the intention, then only a general warning to international ships and planes should be put out. There is no need to exclusively inform 5 or 6 countries.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Jan 2002 23:25

The P-5 are informed as matter of courtsey to avoid surprises. That way they know its a tst and not the real deal.Sort of CBM.Here is HT update: Missile flexing: Agni testedBased on second set of reports shows some kind of briefing happened in New Delhi to explain the significance of the test.
Arun thanks for the update of the range calcs. My question is does it have new separation joint? The old A-I and II had a lattice structure for the separation but this one is a clean structure. So something new is happening in this area.

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 25 Jan 2002 23:31

I cannot wait for the latest outpourings of grief from the Psyops gadfly aka Brian Cloughley. Last I read, he was stroking the Pakis by telling them how Prithvi, the only deployed Indian missile, was just like a couple of plastic grocery bags sitting atop one another, each filled with explosive and corrosive acids etc.. And how they were more dangerous to the launch personnel themselves than to his buddies in Sargodha.Now, this Paki toady will have to step into stroking overdrive!

p.s. I like the analogy to the Pershing-II missile. IIRC, that solid fuel missile had lots of post-entry navigation gizmos in the RV, and was therefore very accurate.

krsai · Post by **krsai** » 25 Jan 2002 23:33

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Missile flexing: Agni tested
<hr></blockquote>

-Pakistan is learnt to have ordered 100 mobile launchers recently from China. 

must be highlightedhttp://www.hindustantimes.com/nonfram/misc/border/agni1.jpg

Pennathur · Post by **Pennathur** » 25 Jan 2002 23:35

Vamseegaru,
..........................................Sequel to "crouching tiger,hidden dragon"Roaring tiger,hidden dragon and shivering rat
.............................................
Raging elephant, smiling dragon, limp (fl**cid)con*om

member_3828 · Post by **member_3828** » 25 Jan 2002 23:49

Is there any connection between AGNI test and newly launched Insat-3C? [may be guidence through Insat-3C]

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 25 Jan 2002 23:50

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by John Umrao:
Just keep doing it and we want 8000 mile ICBM, that will foster even better understanding among the neighbors, distant Uncles and other near and dear relatives.The best way to foster Intl understanding is thru ICBM period.<hr></blockquote>Amen to that. Nothing better than some ICBMs pointing in the right direction to get our brothers in the neighbourhood to behave.

krsai · Post by **krsai** » 25 Jan 2002 23:54

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by DesiGuru1:
Is there any connection between AGNI test and newly launched Insat-3C? [may be guidence through Insat-3C]<hr></blockquote>Nope. insat-3c is purely for public/commericial use. Guidance using insat-3c you mean? I have no clue. Probably experts can answer: Do we have a plan for our own GPS system for GPS based guidance?...or may be.. not a GPS but SCPS sub-continent positioning system!?!? :p

Sahastra · Post by **Sahastra** » 25 Jan 2002 23:55

Is there any connection between AGNI test and newly launched Insat-3C? [may be guidence through Insat-3C] Sounds silly. I don't think INSAT-3C is operational yet. But i maybe wrong.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Jan 2002 23:56

TOI : Powell laments but sees no inflaming tensionsJust the right noises from US.

krsai · Post by **krsai** » 26 Jan 2002 00:16

http://www.deccanherald.com/deccanherald/jan26/ilead.htmThe picture used by deccan herald, bangalore has the picture of the finless tublar looking missile. The missile was launched by researchers at the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and defence ministry officials at 0850 hrs in the presence of Defence Minister George Fernandes and DRDO chief Dr V K Aatre.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 26 Jan 2002 00:24

Very strange. I watched the DD clip on this thingie. They showed the launch of the missile that the Admin has put up in the picture on this thread (sharp-cone nose, white, with orange diagonal stripes, etc.)., but in the same clip on later parts of the flight this blunt-nosed tubular thing seemed to be shown. Can anybody confirm this or was I hallucinating?

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 26 Jan 2002 00:26

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by ramana:
TOI : Powell laments but sees no inflaming tensionsJust the right noises from US.<hr></blockquote>Power begets respect.Just cross the LOC/IB and TS Pukis will revere Indians.

Prateek · Post by **Prateek** » 26 Jan 2002 00:30

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by John Umrao:
Just keep doing it and we want 8000 mile ICBM, that will foster even better understanding among the neighbors, distant Uncles and other near and dear relatives.The best way to foster Intl understanding is thru ICBM period.<hr></blockquote>
First CONGRACTS to ABV and GOI for taking the right decisions in M(uscle)issile flexing. Congracts to all the scientists who worked on this project and all of the Indians who still keep ABV as our PM

JU, I don't think India needs an 8000 Mile ICBM... This will unnecessarily provoke US and Europe. A range of 5000 KM IRBM which can take care of entire ASIA including the complete China and Gulf should be just enough.India must bet and spend their rest of the money not ICBM's but on nuclear capable SLBM's capable of achieving atleast around AGNI II range... (3000 KM's). This can do more WONDERS than ICBM's..

Vanahan · Post by **Vanahan** » 26 Jan 2002 00:36

<blockquote>quote:<hr>Originally posted by JE Menon:
Very strange. I watched the DD clip on this thingie. They showed the launch of the missile that the Admin has put up in the picture on this thread (sharp-cone nose, white, with orange diagonal stripes, etc.)., but in the same clip on later parts of the flight this blunt-nosed tubular thing seemed to be shown. Can anybody confirm this or was I hallucinating?<hr></blockquote>DRDO has done it! Ladies and gentlemen, behold the the incredible shape-shifting missile ...

krsai · Post by **krsai** » 26 Jan 2002 00:38

or did they tested a sub launched one from surface

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 26 Jan 2002 00:54

The TV clip is -- shall we say -- interesting. Our story is that it was Agni-II and we are sticking to it.

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 26 Jan 2002 01:02

Excuse me for the wild speculation, but could there have been two tests within a short time of each other?

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 26 Jan 2002 01:12

The Horizontal and Vertical focus trim pots need to be adjusted on GEM's TV. (Imagine if he were to see the picture Amma on the same TV)Or degauss the picture tube.JEM > Do not try to do this at home you need Umrao Jaan like person to handle 110 KV pulse from the
HV Transformer.

member_1262 · Post by **member_1262** » 26 Jan 2002 01:12

DD could have been showing file footage (its known to happen)

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 26 Jan 2002 01:26

the media is seriously scientifically challenged. GOI has managed the ultimate spin on this one to a point where no two newspapers are calling it the same missile.The names are all over the place with AGNI being common the subsequent letters are randomized

Shape shifting part is again quite interesting. I am assuming that no media was present at the time of the launch.DD did not shoot the video but probably handed the video by MOD.Given all of this we will have to resort to the conventional method of analyzing this - slice and dice the official statement.Arun - can you help in solving the puzzle of shape shifting missile? The two pictures are indeed claimed to be from the same launch. It is not just the shape of RV which is changing -- given that the missile size is same in the two launches there should have similarilties in the shape, color, emblem, etc. in the two images. Did they conduct two tests yesterday? one off the coast from the submerged platform supplied by L&T and another from land? prior notification might have served the purpose of keeping the "eyes" focussed elsewhere at the launch time.Folks, AGNI-X is not Pak specific as the media/GOI would have it. The following other items fall into complete range of the missile -- coco islands, entire BD from western side without having to take the missile around, logistic points in tibet (you do not have to hit Shangai). Does anyone know the location of various chinese bases in Tibet?

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 26 Jan 2002 01:30

Here's the two images from AP along with the captions:Bulbous RV http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/020125/168/10mob.html Quoted as AP Photo / State TVPointed RV http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/020125/170/10ngg.htmlQuoted as AP Photo / Army HandoutAnd JEM has seen the whole clip on DD where this transition seemingly takes place.

Amitabh · Post by **Amitabh** » 26 Jan 2002 01:31

Or, as Umrao John implies, that's probably just a blurred image of the same missile.

Umrao · Post by **Umrao** » 26 Jan 2002 01:31

If there were to be two test firings the US would immidiately know. IR signature plus telemetry.Uncle is watching the Indian Sub continent all the time these days.SO it highly unlikely two tests were conducted.

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 26 Jan 2002 01:34

What's the mystery folks? What are we missing here? Or is it simply a doctored tape that is being shown? AGNI followed by tape of Pershing

krsai · Post by **krsai** » 26 Jan 2002 01:37

Avid - could be. We scratch uncle's back and he scratches ours. Remember, we never went gaga over the paki-terrorists lift-off from khandahar to tsp@!?I don't know if we need to speculate. This media dorkcalls it agni-II

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 26 Jan 2002 02:03

You can see the Agni launch on the Doordarshan web site at approx 5.00 minute mark at
DD News Agni at 5 minutes mark. 26 Jan 2000 HrsThe Agni motor is approx 2.25 times the RV lenght.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jan 2002 02:08

The Deccan Herald and Hindu stories on short range Agni do heve this different shape. Also Hindu does point out it was a single stage vehicle.Short range Agni test firedOh somebody solv the mystery relieve us of the agony!

krsai · Post by **krsai** » 26 Jan 2002 02:26

ramana, I think we can conclude and believe dd clip. The dorky hindu has a disclaimer there,. please read: A TV picture shows the Agni missile blast off during test firing off the coast of Orissa on Friday. Now which tv picture is that? he does not say.
what a piece of mis-information. somebody needs to talk these hindu guys to tell us the truth

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 26 Jan 2002 02:49

Hi the Notan is general, i suspect that the `exclusive warning' is diplomatic stuff. Regarding the missile shape etc... folks.. the azimuth of the missile is changing that (plus the blurring the the DD video) may explain the apparent change in shape. Truth be told, that BRFers lacking azimuth should cast aside prosaic discussion is surprising. It appears what we need is some interlocutor to sort out the form of fray that has emerged.

mody · Post by **mody** » 26 Jan 2002 03:00

http://www.timesofindia.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=1554707047The latest from TOI seems to have the most correct info uptill now. Says trhe missile is a variant of the A-I and would probably have a range of 800-900Km though ws tested to 700Km. The main point is the the missile is a single stage missile most definitely solid fueled and is "road mobile" missile acording to the article. The article also says the A-III will be tested by the end of next year and will have rangein excess of 3500Km.

srai · Post by **srai** » 26 Jan 2002 03:17

source: http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/nm/20020125/india_missiletest_graphic.gif

krsai · Post by **krsai** » 26 Jan 2002 03:29

http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/south/01/25/india.missile/index.htmlnow cnn has a new twist..it says the test is not against pakistan but china...man we need to settle our petition with these guys... this is outrageous reporting... where have we said it is any country specific...or is it true? if it is not true, then there should be some dork-media management team from GoI that needs to deal with folks like cnn, forget deshi ones for now.and please notice the picture, same as the hindu one.. can we link these two reporting orgs as working against india's interests !?!!?

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 26 Jan 2002 03:45

Indian Express: R-Day march gets a 700-km missile salute <blockquote>quote:<hr>The testing of this medium range ballistic missile (MRBM), with a range of 700 km and payload capacity of approximately 800-1,000 kg, is a new entry in DRDO’s inventory list. ... It is a single stage, all-solid fuel missile. <hr></blockquote>

Div · Post by **Div** » 26 Jan 2002 03:49

I didn't scan through the whole thread...and for others who didn't either, here is a pic of the launch.http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/020125/168/10mob.html

Sridhar · Post by **Sridhar** » 26 Jan 2002 03:55

Just saw Colin Powell's interview on PBS (Jim Lehrer), the latter part of which focussed on the missile test in particular, and the India-TSP situation in general. He was pretty measured in his response, unlike the Pakis, the Aussies and the Brits.Jim Lehrer started off with a leading question, characterising the test as part of a celebration. Powell corrected him, saying that the test had been planned for some time. Then, as has been reported, he said that while he would have preferred that the test did not happen at this time, he did not see it as an escalation of the situation. His other responses were similarly measured (and diplomatic).

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 26 Jan 2002 03:58

Good bonus for the year. The range of this new missile fills up a very needed gap between Prithvi and Agni-II. I am sure there will be some testing of this one in future.But now we need the long range one with 3500-5000M capability.Like we are now used to saying "A step in right direction".Back to waiting for TD-2.

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 26 Jan 2002 04:04

UK blasts Agni test-launch http://www.timesofindia.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=986911339And they want to push for Hawk deal, say good bye to hawk deal, go ahead and shout from the roof who cares.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 26 Jan 2002 04:18

From TOI post above: <blockquote>quote:<hr>Professor Gyn Prins, an acknowledged specialist in security issues and nuclear non-proliferation, told this paper the Agni test-launch appeared to follow inexorably from the now "publicly-declared information, namely the revelation that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is probably more deliverable than India’s".<hr></blockquote>It is interesting to note that this sort of yarn is spun everytime India defies the west.