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Philip
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The Israeli PM Mr.Olmert,is having a torrid time with an alleged corruption investigation by police .His coalition partner,defence minister Ehud Barak, has also asked him to step down.Here is what his alleged patron has testified to.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 35495.html

I bankrolled Olmert's taste for the high life, American businessman tells court

By Donald Macintyre in Jerusalem
Wednesday, 28 May 2008

Olmert coalition ally demands he step aside

Morris Talansky, a US businessman, testified yesterday that he had handed over around $150,000 (£76,000) to Ehud Olmert, now Israeli Prime minister, over 15 years – including multithousand-dollar payments in envelopes stuffed with cash.


But while Mr Talansky, suspected of making illegal payments to Mr Olmert since he first campaigned to become Mayor of Jerusalem, said Mr Olmert had vainly – and voluntarily – tried to help one of his business ventures, he denied that he had asked or expected anything from Mr Olmert for his money.

Mr Talansky, 75, said the money included loans for stays in luxury hotels in the US and one – which he said was never paid back – of $25,000 to $30,000 for a family holiday in Italy. He testified in the Jerusalem district court that there were no records of how the money he transferred was spent, stating: "I only know that he loved expensive cigars. I know he loved pens, watches. I found it strange."

While seriously compounding the embattled Mr Olmert's embarrassment at being the target of yet another police investigation into possible corruption, it was not clear that the evidence given so far by Mr Talansky by itself establishes a case against the Prime Minister for bribery.

Mr Talansky said that on one occasion he used his personal credit card to pay a $4,700 hotel bill for a stay at the Ritz Carlton in Washington in 2004. Mr Olmert had called him to explain that his own credit card had "maxed out". Mr Talansky added: "He asked if he could borrow my card and he said it was part of a loan."

The businessman also said that Mr Olmert had had asked for another loan for a $15,000 hotel bill for a stay at the Regency Hotel in New York in cash rather than by cheque. He added that he walked to a bank four blocks away and withdrew the money. When he handed over the cash to Mr Olmert, he asked to be repaid as soon as possible. "Famous last words," Mr Talansky said, indicating that the loan was never repaid.

He said the cash had been paid either directly or through aides of Mr Olmert, and that some of it had been used to upgrade business class air tickets to first class.

He said the last of the payments, which date back to when Mr Olmert campaigned for the mayoralty of Jerusalem in 1993, had been in response to a request from the then industry minister for $72,500. This was to help in elections in the ruling party Likud, of which Mr Olmert was a leading figure until he joined his predecessor Ariel Sharon in forming Kadima in 2005.

Mr Talansky declared: "I was extremely shocked because it was quite a lot of money. He mentioned he was low on the [Knesset candidates'] list and needed a lot of money and I decided it was a wrap up of the money I was going to give." He said he went to the bank and took out $68,000 or $70,000. He added: "I believe that was the last that I ever gave for any campaign."

Mr Talansky said he believed that most of the money he transferred was for political campaigns but that Mr Olmert had also sought money for holidays and unrecorded personal expenses. Mr Olmert, who has said he will resign if indicted as a result of the investigations, has also said that he never took illegal campaign contributions, never took bribes and "never took a penny for myself".

Mr Talansky said that he had donated $30,000 for an unsuccessful campaign in 2002 for the Likud chairmanship. The money had been donated in four cheques in the name of Mr Talansky, his wife, son and brother after "I recall him telling me you could only give him a maximum amount per person".

He said Mr Olmert had offered to contact three billionaires including Yitzhak Tshuva, owner of the Plaza Hotel, and Sheldon Adelson, to try to interest them in becoming customers for a hotel mini-bar venture run by Mr Talansky. He said the offer had not helped and Mr Adelson, one of the richest men in the US, had slammed down the phone on him. Mr Talansky added: "I'm never going to a politician for business. He wanted to do me a favour and it never worked out."

Mr Talansky said that he greatly admired Mr Olmert as a charismatic politician who always greeted him with a big hug whenever the two men met in Jerusalem, though he had never been to Mr Olmert's home. "I had a very close relationship with him but I wish to add that the relationship of 15 years was purely of admiration."

He added: "I never expected anything personally. I never had any personal benefits from this relationship whatsoever."

Mr Talansky's testimony was not part of any court proceeding against Mr Olmert, who is still under police investigation. It was given in court because Mr Talansky is a US resident and the authorities expressed concern that he might not return to Israel to testify. At one point Mr Talansky, who has spent most of his career as a fundraiser for Jewish causes, broke into tears when he was told the hearing might have to be prolonged beyond yesterday. He said he missed his wife, who he had said was in deteriorating health at the couple's home in Long Island.

Eli Zohar, one of Mr Olmert's lawyers, said Mr Talansky's evidence was "twisted" and that the truth would be revealed at a cross examination the lawyers will conduct on 17 July.

Mr Zohar added: "In general we're saying that we are not talking about any criminal activity whatsoever."

The state attorney, Moshe Lador, said after yesterday's hearing that it was too early to make decisions about how the case would proceed.
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US Bureau of Industry export control officer had been assigned to look into the re-export of American defence gear to Iran through the Jebel Ali free trade zone in Dubai. The Drug Enforcement Administration(DEA) is also about to open an office in Dubai to keep its eye on traffic in Dubai port.

DEA will also monitor the operations of banks in the Emirates, which are already in the cross hairs of the Treasury Department’s office of terrorism and financial intelligence. Dubai is one of the emirates that commands the most attention of the FBI and CIA, which have long had offices there.
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A dispute over the independent telephone network on which has been examined in depth by Lebanon’s military intelligence agency. According to the agency’s report, the network was financed by the Iranian Assistance Organisation and functions independently of Lebanons present telecomms system. One of Hezbollah’s main aims with the network is to avoid interception by Israel but also by the Lebanese government. It was built with the help of Iranian technicians following the war between Israel and Hezbollah fighters in July 2006. Hezbollah’s telephone lines run between the Shiite movement’s stronghold in the southern Beirut to the Baalbek - Hermel region alongside Syria.

Eventually, Hezbollah plans to link its network up with the Syrian telecommunications system, or even Iran’s. Hezbollah uses a five-figure number on the network, which means the system can currently carry about 100,000 lines. For its internal communications, Hezbollah also employs the Internet - Voice over IP- as it remains difficult to intercept. The movement initially built the network for strictly military purposes. But it is now thinking of using it on a commercial basis as well in order to generate money for the moment, creating a private Lebanese telephone company.
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Behind the scenes negotiations that I had reported a while ago.

Swiss foreign minister who signed a agreement in Tehran on April 20 providing for Iran to supply gas to Switzerland, can be credited with getting U.S. and Iranian envoys to meet. On travelling to Iran, the minister won the trust of the regime which came around to the idea of sending a team to meet with the Americans between April 20-23 at the American embassy in Ankara - Turkey. The leading Iranian representative at the talks was former foreign minister Kamal Karazi, who served under president Mohamed Khatami and now advises Iran’s spiritual leader Ali Khamenei on foreign policy. He was accompanied by officers from the army and from the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). On the American side, the leading negotiator was the US ambassador to Iraq - Ryan Crocker, who was assisted by CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency officials.

The Iraqi Shiite politician Ahmed Chalabi, who now heads the Iraqi Services Committee in charge of restoring water and power supply in Baghdad, was brought in from Baghdad for some of the talks. This was also the case of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Shiite coalition that governs Iraq and chief of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. The Iranians said any “normalizationâ€
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Post by shyamd »

Immediately prior to negotiations on the lebanese crisis in Doha, CIA director Michael Hayden turned up on May 11 in Qatar with a delegation from the agency to meet with crown prince Tamin Bin Hamad al Thani.
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Summer 2008 was supposed to be the time of a limited air attack by the US against Iran. However, I think things are going to change after Iran and Syria have set up a joint missile command in Syria.

Iran Achieves a Four-Front Missile Command, Breakthrough on Nuclear Missile Warheads
DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources disclose that the details of the combined command were worked out ahead of the Syrian defense minister’s talks in Tehran: It was agreed that Syria’s missile units would come under the new independent Iranian missile section and their operations would be fully coordinated with Tehran. Iranian officers are to be attached to Syrian units and Syrian officers posted to the Iranian command.

In the interim, Hizballah’s rise to power in Beirut has brought Lebanon into the shared Syrian-Iranian orbit. This development has enabled Tehran to line up a row of missiles deployments of varying strengths from Iran, Syria and Lebanon and up to the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip – a missile array never before seen in the Middle East and a strategic menace most of Israel’s security leaders rate unacceptable.

Military experts comment that Tehran’s centralized control of four hostile missile fronts will virtually neutralize the American and Israeli anti-missile defense systems in the region; the Arrow and the Patriot missile interceptors could handle incoming missiles from one or maybe two directions – but not four.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Israel’s armed forces have been working overtime, against repeated holdups, to get the third Arrow battery installed. It is to be deployed in northern Israel as a shield against Syrian ballistic missiles and Iranian missiles stationed in Syria.
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Old but missed article:

India, UAE consider shoring up military ties
Atul Aneja

Pranab Mukherjee discusses possible joint production of sophisticated military hardware
DUBAI: India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have taken a fresh look at shoring up their military ties as part of their effort to substantiate a multifaceted relationship.

The visiting Minister of External Affairs, Pranab Mukherjee, held detailed discussions on Tuesday with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and the Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE armed forces.

Diplomatic sources said that the talks explored ways to establish a “long-termâ€
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Paris and Berlin Reset their Sights on Lebanon’s New Owners - Damascus and Tehran are not yet sure of the new Lebanese president’s loyalty. So Assad put off his triumphal visit to Beirut.

US influence is fading in Lebanon.
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Sources report that a retired general turned up out of the blue on the 40th day of mourning for Hizbollah’s military chief Imad Mughniyeh with a message from the syrian president, for the US and Arab intelligence agents based in Damascus and Beirut. Hizbollah had threatened to punish Israel after the mourning period was over. The message conveyed by the general was that Assad had decided not to retaliate for the Mughniyeh’s death or let Hizbollah wreak revenge either.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ast/israel

Israel's ambassador says Britain has become a hotbed of radical anti-Israeli feeling
By Martin Beckford, Religious Affairs Correspondent
Last Updated: 7:02AM BST 10/06/2008
Britain has become a hotbed of radical anti-Israeli views, according to the country's envoy to London.

IAN JONES
Ron Prosor became Israel's ambassador to Britain last year
Ron Prosor claims that while the UK was once admired for its liberal fairness and decency, in recent years extremists have "hijacked" its debate over Israel.

He says his country has been turned into a "pantomime villain" by Britons who deny it has any right to exist, while terror attacks on Israeli citizens are ignored by both the media and public opinion.

Mr Prosor, a senior diplomat who became Israel's ambassador to Britain last year, is particularly scornful of the academics who want to boycott Israeli universities over the country's treatment of Palestinians.

Article continuesadvertisement
He was a spokesman for the Israeli Embassy in London between 1995 and 1998, and says while living here he came to appreciate the country's reputation for cherishing liberty and human rights, earned following its fight against the "dark forces" of the Nazis in World War Two.

But he says he has been "dismayed" by what he has seen since returning to the country in November.

Mr Prosor writes: "Fairness is all too frequently absent in a debate that has been hijacked by extremists.

"Israel faces an intensified campaign of delegitimisation, demonisation and double standards. Britain has become a hotbed for radical anti-Israeli views and a haven for disingenuous calls for a 'One state solution', a euphemistic name for a movement advocating Israel's destruction.

"Those who propagate this notion distort Israel's past while categorically denying Israel's right to exist as a liberal Jewish-Democratic state. No other country in the world is constantly forced to justify its own existence."

Mr Prosor, a former Director-General of Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs who has also served in the US and Germany, warns that the campaign by lecturers to boycott Israeli universities risks damaging the reputation of British academia.

In 2007 members of the University and College Union (UCU) voted to sever links with Israeli universities in a move which provoked outrage from politicians and academics around the world, and prompted Jewish leaders to condemn it as a "frightening assault" on academic freedom.

Union leaders later dropped the proposal but last month delegates at the UCU's annual conference passed a similar motion condemning the "humanitarian catastrophe imposed on Gaza by Israel", which could pave the way for a boycott of Israeli educational institutions. They claim academics in Israel are "apparently complicit" with what they call the "illegal settlement" of Palestinian land and "killing of civilians".

Mr Prosor says the idea of an academic boycott undermines the principles of free speech and debate which are meant to characterise universities.

"Academics, supposedly society's guardians of knowledge, objectivity and informed debate, have seen their union held hostage by radical factions, armed with political agendas and personal interests," he writes.

"British academia has built its reputation on freedom of expression and the pluralistic exchange of ideas. Alarmingly these values are under threat in an institution that should be safeguarding them."

He says the campaign is no more than a "license to harass, humiliate and discriminate purely on grounds of nationality" justified on the basis of "half-truths and lies".

He cites examples of Israeli staff and students who have suffered on British campuses in a "climate of hatred".

Mr Prosor says public feeling towards his homeland is worsened by media coverage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which he claims is too often biased and tainted by double-standards.

"Israel's military reaction to the attacks it faces is given in depth, microscopic coverage. Yet the attacks to which Israel is responding are often ignored. Terror attacks, ambushes, suicide bombings or the constant barrage of rockets being fired on Israeli citizens are frequently disregarded.

"The average British citizen is painfully unaware that since Hamas seized control of Gaza last year, 1,400 rockets and 1,500 mortar bombs have landed on Israeli soil."

Mr Prosor says no country could withstand such an assault without retaliating, and calls Israel a "democracy under fire".

He concludes that those who believe in British values must work to stop the "radical fringe" dominating the debate about Israel and do more to understand the difficulties the country faces.
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Its funny how fast news moves in a couple of days.

Apparently Olmert has once again backed away from major action, while Hamas is building up its war machine to defend its land. Olmert has reportedly accepted the Egyptian peace formula of Hamas offering an informal truce. . Hamas is under no binding commitment to hold its missile fire or force its allied terrorist groups in the territory it governs to join a ceasefire. Hamas is also not going to release Gilead Shalit in exchange for truce, they want a prisoner exchange for him so that they can bring home family members from Israeli prisons. Another Israeli condition ignored in the upcoming truce deal is the guaranteed stopping of smuggling to the Gaza Strip through Sinai of Palestinian fighting men, armaments and money. Whereas Egypt offered another of its empty promises to stem the flow, in the last two weeks, an unprecedented volume of smuggled war materiel was allowed to reach the Gaza Strip and top up Hamas’ war arsenal.
Israel has quietly agreed to lift its blockade of the Gaza Strip in stages

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the Israeli Air Force has set up an Iran Command to coordinate operations with the ballistic missiles and air and missile defense brigades which deploy the Arrow and Patriot anti-missile missile systems.

The Al Qods commander has been given the job of launching reprisal attacks if anyone attacks Iran's nuclear facilities. His preparations are being kept so secret, he is receiving funding in cash from Khamanei bureau to fund the preparations.
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Turkish warplanes strike northern Iraq

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Syrian anthem played for Lebanese
Pretty much sums up the situation in Lebanon. :lol:
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To prevent a hostile environment from being created on its southern border, the Saudi armed forces have intervened directly against the Zaidist rebellion in Yemen. This is the 5th clash in 4 years against the shiite rebels.

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Rafsanjani has apparently warned the Saudi's indirectly about supporting any aerial bombardment of Iran. This might have happened in Mecca, when Rafsanjani was invited a couple of days back for a conference and was received at the airport by King Abdullah.
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In an interview with the Times, Bush said his aim now was to leave his successor a legacy of international diplomacy for tackling Iran.

Some people are saying that President Bush was also clearly bidding farewell to the option of an American strike against Iran’s nuclear program.
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

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Editorial 13 June 2008, The Pioneer
Turkey in turmoil

The Pioneer Edit Desk

Erdogan pushes his Islamist agenda

Turkey is in a state of crisis. The recent decision of Turkey's top constitutional court to strike down a bitterly contested law pushed through by the ruling Islamist Justice and Development Party, which would have allowed women to wear Islamic headscarves, or hijab, in universities, has sparked a political war of sorts. But to suggest that the current situation could have been avoided would be naïve. For, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his fellow Islamists in the AKP were fully aware of what they were getting into when they cussedly insisted on using their parliamentary majority to end the ban on hijab in universities. To that extent, Mr Erdogan and his party were, and remain, eager to show off their political might by riding roughshod over secular sentiments. Mr Erdogan has been preparing for this battle for years. Although he did not force the headscarf issue in his first term, after last year's showdown with the secular Army over the presidential election and his subsequent victory in a general election, he is now sufficiently confident of achieving his party's goal of ridding Turkey of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's legacy and thus paving the way for another Islamic state to emerge. Being the world's only Muslim majority secular democracy, Turkey has a unique position in global geopolitics. Since the days of Ataturk, it has been the only country in a region dominated by various shades of Islamism that has actively separated religion and state, shunning political Islam. In that respect, it is the only Muslim majority country in the world that bears testimony to the idea that Islam can coexist with a modern democracy. It is this that has made generations of Turks look towards Europe rather than West Asia.

But now a reverse trend is in motion that threatens to drag Turkey back to the days of the Ottoman Empire. The Islamist forces that had been so far kept under check by the country's secular establishment have finally gathered enough clout, through subterfuge and disingenuous means, to reintroduce those very things that Ataturk stood up against. Although Mr Erdogan and his cronies insist that their attempt to legitimise the hijab is aimed at "protecting human rights", it is really the thin end of the edge. The implications of the headscarf issue go well beyond Turkey's borders: They are intrinsically linked to pan-Islamism and not entirely devoid of a larger message to Muslims living in other secular societies. There are two ways of dealing with the unfolding crisis. The West, which views Turkey as a strategic ally, could let Mr Erdogan know that his party is going back on its pledge to give up radical Islam and thus crossing into dangerous territory. Second, the Turkish judiciary could step in and put a halt to Mr Erdogan's revanchist politics. For the moment, the judiciary has acted well and must remain firm.
I guess the editor doesnt understand the power of Islamism. It might go quiesant but will spring back when it feels capable. The 'secularism' of Turkey was due to the over two hundred years of intorspection after the defeat at Vienna in 1684 and even then if it werent for the defeat in WWI they woldnt have given Kemal Pasha the opportunity to modernize Turkey. The Kemal phase was chance which Western Europe with their prejudice did not let flower by allowing Turkey into EU.
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by svinayak »

Image
DUBAI 1990

Image
DUBAI 2003

Image
shyamd
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First Pic above is Sheikh Zayed Road. 2nd is Sheikh Zayed Rd in 2003, 3rd is Dubai Marina

Britain warns of high attack risk in UAE
7 hours ago

DUBAI (AFP) — Britain has warned of a high risk of a terror attack in the United Arab Emirates, the booming oil-rich Gulf state and regional economic and tourst hub that is home to several million foreigners.

"There is a high threat from terrorism. We believe terrorists may be planning to carry out attacks in the UAE," said a travel advice posted online by the embassy.

"Attacks could be indiscriminate and could happen at any time, including in places frequented by expatriates and foreign travellers such as residential compounds, military, oil, transport and aviation interests," it said.

The warning posted on Saturday informed Britons in the pro-Western desert nation and key OPEC member that they should "maintain a high level of security awareness, particularly in public places."

The UAE is a conservative Muslim nation but has become a major regional tourist hub, attracting millions each year, mainly in the bustling city-state of Dubai which is known for its liberal lifestyle.

While other Gulf countries have witnesses bloody attacks blamed on the Al-Qaeda network of Saudi-born terror mastermind Osama bin Laden, the UAE has not been targeted.

"We believe that threat to be high. It was a general threat before," a British embassy spokeswoman told AFP. "There are a number of factors that came into consideration. The threat level was raised and the travel advisory was amended to reflect that."

No other Western embassies have made similar warnings.

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has been battling a wave of deadly violence waged by Islamist militants since 2003, including attacks targeting foreigners and key oil installations.

Its impoverished neighbour Yemen has also witnessed several attacks claimed by Al-Qaeda, and in Qatar, one Briton was killed and 12 people were wounded in a suicide bombing at a theatre near a British school in Doha in March 2005.

The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, were the only countries to recognise the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 1997, but it severed links with the radical Islamist regime in 2001 over its refusal to comply with international pressure to hand over bin Laden.

The British embassy said over one million British visitors travelled to the UAE in 2006, and that more than 100,000 British nationals are resident there, the largest Western community in the country.

More than 80 percent of the population of 5.6 million in the fast-developing UAE are foreigners, according to figures for 2006 published in February.

The influx ranges from poorly-paid construction workers, many from the Indian sub-continent, to hard-partying professionals.

Dubai, one of the seven emirates forming the UAE federation, attracts huge numbers of British investors who invest in its booming real estate sector.

With its skyscrapers, plush hotels, vast shopping malls, beaches and desert tours, Dubai has also become a popular destination for tourists.

Tristan Cooper, Moody's Investors Service's Middle East sovereign risk analyst, warned that the threat could potentially damage the robust UAE economy.

"Non-nationals account for over 80 per cent of the population, so yes, it could potentially be hit by a political shock that slowed the inflow of expatriate labour or, in a more extreme scenario, caused resident expatriates to leave the country," he told the Dow Jones newswire.

"A downturn in sentiment could also damage the country's robust investment inflows as well as its booming real estate and equity markets," he added.

The UAE sits on 97.8 billion barrels of oil reserves, which are ranked as the fifth largest in the world. Its economy is estimated to have grown by 7.4 percent in 2007, according to the International Monetary Fund.
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by Karan Dixit »


She said India was a democracy which has played an exemplary role in the last six decades and been an inspiration for most of the countries in the Arab world.


http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20080616/81 ... ra-_1.html
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

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Image

dubai today
JE Menon
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by JE Menon »

That pic does not reflect the scale of development by any means... Palm Island is just one of numerous humongous projects...

Shaikh Zayed road (see 2003 pic) is nowhere close to what it is now... The Burj building, tallest in the world, is located in the area near the Emirates towers (those two tall buildings that look identical with a triangular top) - and the taller one of those was already taller than anything in Europe. The Burj tower is humongous - some restaurants have already opened in a wider complex connected to it. Tried one "Meat & Co"... awesome food.
shyamd
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Even the picture above posted by Acharya is a bit old, that part is full of buildings now, there is little vacant land there.

Syrian president, Bashar al Assad, offers India ''direct role'' in the Palestine region peace process news
New Delhi: Bashar al Assad, the Syrian president, arrives in New Delhi today on a five-day trip that will not only be his first visit to India, but also be the first one by a Syrian head of State in more than two decades. In interactions with sections of the Indian media, Assad has said that India could play a ''direct'' role in the ongoing talks between Syria and Israel as well as Israel and Palestine.

In an interview with Indian national daily, The Hindu, Assad said he hoped India could play a ''direct role'' in the ongoing peace processes between Syria and Israel, as well as between the Palestinians and Israel. ''That will make the region more stable and affect India itself in the long-run and the world at large, especially Asia,'' he told The Hindu.

Reversing its pro-Palestinian tilt since the late 1990s, India has by now developed close defence, security and intelligence links with Israel. The two countries established diplomatic relations in 1992. Since then Israel has gone on to become India's second-largest weapons supplier after Russia.

According to Assad, India could participate in multi-party talks along with the United States, the European Union and others in a bid to stabilise the Middle East.

During his visit Assad will be visiting the southern city of Bangalore to have a look at India's IT capital.

According to Indian government officials, a bilateral agreement on the avoidance of double taxation and a memorandum of understanding on co-operation in agriculture and associated sectors, would likely be signed during Assad's visit.

The Syrian president is also scheduled to hold talks with a range of Indian leaders, including prime minister Manmohan Singh, the UPA chairperson, Sonia Gandhi and Montek Singh Ahluwalia, a the deputy chairman of India's Planning Commission.

Interestingly, Assad will also pay a visit to the Indian Space and Research Organisation
Interview with President of Syria - Full Text

India should stay out of the Palestinian and Israeli peace negotiations at least for now. India should maintain diplomatic links to protect Indian citizens but not get directly involved in the peace process.
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by shyamd »

In the Israel - Lebanon war in 2006, Russian SVR had been brought in by Damascus to intercept Israeli comms, the info was being passed to Hezbollah. German BND had discovered this.
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Iran hails Gaza ceasefire, in a meeting attended by the top leadership of Iran. They congradulated each other for achieving another pressure point against the US. Looks like no rockets were launched by other terrorist groups, which means that Hamas is King in Gaza.

Now the exchange talks for Gilead Shalit are underway, Barak has agreed to release most of the people on Hamas's list.

Olmert is also willing to cede Shebaa farms to UN custody - this would make the existance of Hezbollah un-necessary.
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Israeli intelligence: Hizballah stocks tens of thousands of rockets in restored bunkers
Head of AMAN’s research division Brig. Yossi Baidatz brought bad news on two fronts to the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee Tuesday, June 17. He reported that Hamas needed a ceasefire in Gaza after 350 of its terrorists had been killed. In his view, this ceasefire if finally negotiated would be fragile and short-lived.

As for Israel’s northern front, Baidatz confirmed DEBKAfile’s previous reports that Hizballah has stockpiled tens of thousands of rockets in fortified tunnels, in numbers far outstripping its pre-Lebanon War 2006 strength.

DEBKAfile’s military sources add: Iranian Revolutionary Guards engineers recently finished building three clusters of bunkers, fortified against aerial attack, to store the rockets Syria and Iran have lavished on Hizballah in the last two years.

One cluster is located in the Beqaa Valley, close to northeast Lebanon’s border with Syria. Built to house long-range rockets, these tunnels have wide openings so that they can be used as launching pads for rockets out of reach of Israeli bombers. A second, in central Lebanon, north of the strategic Beirut-Damascus highway, accommodates medium-range rockets. Syrian air and anti-tank forces will provide both clusters with an umbrella.

The third cluster is located in the south. It is armed with short-range rockets and other systems, including anti-tank artillery and missiles, designed to block an Israeli offensive.

Defense minister Ehud Barak was referring obliquely to this mighty Hizballah build-up when he said recently that Hizballah’s bunker system had been restored in South Lebanon, thereby refuting Prime minister Ehud Olmert’s contention that the war had weakened Hizballah.

According to our sources, most of the bunkers in the three new subterranean clusters are interconnected by one of three means:

1. Sub-tunnels broad enough to accommodate trucks and enable them to move about free of aerial attack and reconnaissance.

2. Cement-lined channels (picture) which keep traffic safe from air attack and serve as anti-tank trenches.

3. A fast highway network, which was laid for exclusive Hizballah military movements ahead of the tunnels and now connects all three clusters.

They are also linked by an autonomous telecommunications system. The Siniora government’s decision to dismantle this system in May generated the near-civil war which led to Hizballah’s violent takeover of most of Beirut.

While Israeli military intelligence warned the heads of government in good time about the tunnels and the vast rocket arsenal amassed by Hizballah, no orders came down to the army to liquidate it.

Political sources explain that the prime minister was deterred by fear that an Israeli military action against the Lebanese Shiite terrorist group, which is supported by Damascus and Tehran, would jeopardize the indirect Israeli-Syrian peace talks taking place through Turkey’s good offices.
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by paramu »

Can Israel now divide Palestine into two independent countries, similar to Pakistan in 1971?
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Israel carries out large-scale rehearsal over Greece of possible air strike against Iran
US Pentagon sources report that more than 100 Air Force F-16 and F-15 fighters participated in the maneuver over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece in the first week of June. The maneuver included helicopters used for rescuing downed pilots and refueling tankers. They flew 1,440 km, roughly the distance between Israel and the Iranian uranium enrichment plant at Natanz.

Israel officials declined to comment on the exercise, the IDF saying only that the air force trains regularly for various missions in order to meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel. But the US sources said the scope of the Israeli exercise guaranteed it would be noticed by American and other foreign intelligence agencies, primarily to send a signal to the US, Europe and Iran that Israel was prepared and able to act militarily if diplomatic efforts failed to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons advances.

One Pentagon official said: “They rehearse it, rehearse it and rehearse it, so that if they actually have to do it, they’re ready. They’re not taking any options off the table.”

DEBKAfile’s military sources add that only on Tuesday, June 17, the chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazy commented to the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee: "Beside the actions and sanctions against Iran, it is important we remain ready for any options."

Those sources interpreted the Ashkenazy’s typically understated remark as a hint that Israel must be ready for a possible war with Iran in the near future. This conflict could erupt on three additional fronts, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas. Those sources suggest that the scenario he hinted at would silence the many domestic critics of the ceasefire with Hamas and the Israeli military’s passivity in the face of Hizballah’s massive rocket buildup and Hamas’ escalating aggression.

Of interest too is the probable motive behind the US defense department’s leak to the world media of the Israel Air Force maneuver and its presentation as an exercise to simulate an attack on Iran. According to DEBKAfile’s informants, US defense secretary Robert Gates is adamantly opposed to American military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities and even more so to Israel going it alone, which this publicity was intended to pre-empt.
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by Johann »

paramu wrote:Can Israel now divide Palestine into two independent countries, similar to Pakistan in 1971?
There arent the linguistic/cultural divisions, or the semi-colonial relationship you saw between West and East Pakistan. Gazans and West Bankers are both Arabs, speaking Arabic.

But there's no question that since the Hamas takeover of Gaza, Israel has tried to encourage a de-linking from the West Bank.

Gaza has always been far more heavily Islamist in orientation than the West Bank - it is the home of Hamas, partially because it was situated right between Egypt and Syria, the two centres of the Muslim Brotherhood. Gaza has always been a far more difficult place to live because of its size and location - it has much higher rates of emigration.

Israel for decades rejected the very notion of Palestinian identity, the notion that Palestinians were particularly different from the Arabs of Egypt or Jordan. The Arab states for the same reason promoted that identity, because it was politically easier than either defeating Israel, let alone carving it up between themselves.

The fact is that the Palestinian movement has always depended on a mix of a charismatic and canny leadership figure who could rouse Arab and Muslim support worldwide. First it was the Grand Mufti, and then it was his nephew Arafat. They're dead, and so is Sheikh Yassin, the only potential replacement with stature. That has not killed the Palestinian movement, but it has certainly weakened and fragmented it.

What I'm saying is that *politically* Gaza and West Bank are now de-linked, but culturally that hasnt happened yet. In fact the Palestinian identity is actually spreading, with more Arab Israelis calling themselves 'Palestinians'. The potential for a political figure to emerge to unite Palestinian and pro-Palestian energies remains.
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Welcome back Johann.
ISRAEL TARGETS IRAN'S NUCLEAR SITES?
By B.Raman

Quoting US officials, the "New York Times" reported as follows on June 20,2008: " U.S. officials say Israel carried out a large military exercise this month that appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters took part in the maneuvers over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece in the first week of June. The exercise appeared to be an effort to focus on long-range strikes and illustrates the seriousness with which Israel views Iran's nuclear program. Israeli officials would not discuss the exercise. A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces would say only that the country's air force "regularly trains for various missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel." . A Pentagon official, who was briefed on the exercise, said one goal was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and other details of a possible strike against Iran's nuclear installations and long-range conventional missiles. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said a second goal was to send a clear message that Israel was prepared to act militarily if other efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium fail. "They wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know," the Pentagon official said. "There's a lot of signaling going on at different levels." Several U.S. officials said they did not believe Israel had decided to attack Iran or think such a strike was imminent."

2. This could be part of a Psywar tactics jointly mounted by Israel and the US to make Iran co-operate with the efforts of the international community to denuclearise its military capability without damaging its capability for civilian nuclear development.

3. Iran has been playing its own psychological game by sticking to its refusal to suspend the enrichment of uranium at its facility in Natanz while at the same time giving the impression of being willing to continue its talks on the subject with its Western interlocutors.

4. In this game, time is important in different senses for Israel and Iran. Understandably, Israel is getting impatient because, in its view, much time has already been wasted in pointless negotiations with Iran. This has enabled Iran to commission its uranium enrichment facility. It is now trying to expand the capacity of Natanz by installing more centrifuges for enrichment. The more the centrifuges and the richer the level and quantity of enrichment, the greater the danger of environmental damage if the Israeli Air Force strikes at it. If the environmental damage affects the health of the people of neighbouring Arab countries, local public opinion could further turn against the US and Israel.

5. In Iraq in the early 1980s and in Syria last year, Israel struck at nuclear facilities under construction. There was no such danger. Israeli military and intelligence experts must be telling their policy-makers that they have already delayed action too long and that they should at least now strike at Iranian sites when they might still be able to prevent adverse effects on Iran's neighbours.

6. There is another reason why Israel cannot afford to waste more time. If they strike when Mr.George Bush is still in office---particularly before the Presidential elections in November--- Mr.Bush might hold the ring for them and see that the international community does not fall upon Israel. If they wait till next year, they may not be able to count on similar support from the next President---whether it is Mr.Barrack Obama or Mr.John McCain. The next President will take at least six months from his inauguration in January to work out a coherent policy on Iran.

7. Apart from the risk of environmental damage, Israel will face another danger the like of which it did not face from Iraq or Syria. Iran is a strong military power with a capability to strike back at Israel through its Air Force and missiles. Moreover, Iran is a more ruthless power than Iraq or Syria. It may not hesitate to itself carry out or to have carried out through a surrogate an attack on the Strait of Hormuz in order to block the flow of oil at a time when the economies of many countries, including India, are facing serious difficulties due to the sky-rocketing oil prices caused partly by normal market speculation and partly by nervousness over the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran. Israel would also face the danger of a retaliation by Hizbollah from its bases in the Lebanon.

8. Israel will have the following options:one, strike only at the nuclear sites and wait to see what is Iran's response in the hope of being able to counter that response. Second, neutralise initially Iran's air and missile capabilities and then hit at its nuclear sites. Third, neutralise simulataneously Iran's nuclear, air and missile capabilities.

9. The ideal time for an Israeli strike, if it decides to strike, will be between now and before the presidential election campaign picks up momentum in the US. Once the US is in the midst of the campaign, the flexibility of response now available to the Bush administration might be reduced. An ideal time could be in August when the world attention will be on the Beijing Olympics with little attention paid to Iran.

10.Time is equally important for Iran because if it succeeds in preventing action by the US or Israel or both till January, the possibility of action might get reduced once a new President is in position----particularly if that President happens to be Mr.Obama. He is a very engaging and electrifying personality, but does not appear to have a stomach for strong action either against Iran or Pakistan or Al Qaeda or the Taliban or the Hizbollah. He may turn out to be another Jimmy Carter---lovable, but nothing more.

11. The two potential candidates are now working out their policy options before the campaign starts officially. One notices that both the camps are talking in terms of policy responses in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and against Al Qaeda and the its associates as if each could be dealt with separately. They don't see a connecting thread. Instead, the debate should be on policy options available in response to two threats which would confront the international community in the short and medium terms. These are, firstly, Iran's use of Hizbollah and the Shia militant groups in Iraq to achieve its strategic purposes in the region and the dangers arising from its nuclear capability and the possibility of the transfer of this capability to the Hizbollah. Secondly, Pakistan's use of Al Qaeda and the Pashtun Taliban to achieve its strategic objectives in Afghanistan and the Punjabi Taliban to achieve its strategic objective relating to Kashmir against India and the dangers arising from the possibility of these terrorist groups gaining access to Pakistan's nuclear expertise.

12. Everybody talks only of the dangers of Al Qaeda and its Pashtun and Punjabi associates getting hold of Pakistan's nuclear expertise. Nobody talks of the danger of the Hizbollah and the Shia terrorist groups of Iraq getting hold of Iran's nuclear expertise.

13. Whether what is going on presently is only a Psywar or whether there is a real possibility of an Israeli pre-emptive action, the effect on the oil market will be the same---push up prices further. Oil prices are unlikely to come down till the present crisis over Iran's nuclear intentions is resolved in a manner, which reduces the concerns of Israel. India will suffer more from the surging oil prices than China because after 9/11, China has built up its strategic oil reserves. India has done very little in this direction. Our economy, which is already considerably behind the Chinese economy, will lag further behind. (21-6-08)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and , presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: [email protected] )
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

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Israel’s air maneuver did not simulate possible Iran strike strategy
.........Those Western military sources also deduced from the Israeli aerial exercise eastern Mediterranean that its war planners must have taken stock of the punishing fallout a war operation against Iran would trigger.

Therefore, rather than consigning a large air fleet to Iranians skies, Israel’s war planners are likely to first use large numbers of missiles to demolish Iran’s nuclear facilities and air defense batteries. Some may be delivered by air from a distance outside the range of Iranian fighter craft (most of which are outdated and in bad shape), others from Dolphin submarines.

The Air Force will go into action at a later stage.

They calculate that the moment Iran is attacked, not only will it retaliate, but all hell will break loose on Israeli borders. Iran’s terrorist stooges, HIzballah will let loose from Lebanon, Hamas from the Gaza Strip and the Syrian air and missile forces go into action from the north. The Israeli Air Force will be vitally needed to protect the population and sufficient aircraft must therefore be kept back for the home front.

Given Tehran’s multiple reprisal capability and the limits to which the Israeli Air Force can be stretched operationally at one time, the IDF may well decide to deal with the Hizballah and Hamas short-range rocket infrastructure as well as the Syrian Air Force before going into action against Iran..

In this sense, DEBKAfile’s military experts note, the decision to strike Iran’s nuclear sites is tightly bound up with preventive action against the menaces closer to home, Hamas at the very least.

MK Tzahi Hanegbi, chairman of the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee said in an interview Saturday, June 21, on Day Three of the Gaza truce, that a major operation to demolish Hamas’ war machine will be unavoidable at some point.
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India tiptoes to the new Middle East
By M K Bhadrakumar

DELHI - The Middle East took a great leap forward this week to the post-George W Bush era. Israel's dramatic shift of glance to the forces of political Islam sums it up. "Today we have concurrent peace negotiations with both the Syrians and the Palestinians and there is no logical reason why there should also not be talks with the Lebanese," Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's spokesman Mark Regev said in Jerusalem on Wednesday.

Israel's announcement hinting at peace with Hezbollah followed hours after agreeing a landmark truce with Hamas in Gaza. Separately, Israeli and Lebanese politicians confirmed a deal in the making between Israel and Hezbollah regarding the exchange



of prisoners. The deal, brokered by Germany, may be announced next week.

Shifts in regional setting
The cynics may argue that Olmert is diverting attention from the corruption scandals that threaten to hound him out of power. True, clever politicians resort to such tactics. The hardcore realists may say Israeli public opinion militates against parting with the Golan Heights and that the Gaza truce is too fragile to be enduring. True, there is no indication Israel feels strong enough for peace with Syria or that Hamas has "changed its skin", to borrow Olmert's words.

All the same, Israel's proposal for peace talks with Lebanon signifies a turnabout from its clamor to isolate rather than engage Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah. At a minimum, Israel recognizes that the strategy of isolating Hamas has not worked. The deal with Israel elevates Hamas' status in the region.

Most certainly, the declining influence of the Bush administration in the Middle East is a contributory factor in the Israeli thinking. Regev mentioned a "changed constellation" in the Middle East. The Washington Post newspaper has reported on the likelihood of Olmert meeting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at a conference in France in July, "a move that would be likely to further weaken US efforts to isolate Syria".

The "changed constellation" also pertains to the ground reality that Bush faces a stalemate over the Iran nuclear issue. Bush is left with the option of coercive diplomacy in the nature of drumming up international pressure against Iran and to leave matters to the new president in the White House in January. Even an ardent supporter of Israel like John Bolton, former US envoy to the United Nations, is forced to admit that an American military strike against Iran is conceivable only during the post-election period between November and January, but that too is a long shot.

As for Israel, it cannot and will not attack Iran without full American backing, which, given the domestic environment in the US and Bush's low credibility in the region, is unlikely. The result is, as Time magazine sums up, "Israel can only huff and puff, hoping new sanctions on Iran will do the trick."

Meanwhile, the foreign policy panel that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama constituted includes former secretaries of state Warren Christopher and Madeline Albright, who have been vocal about engaging Iran. Addressing the panel on Wednesday, Obama outlined a "pragmatic" foreign policy in contrast with what he described as the "rigid ideology" of the Bush administration.

To sum up, a new Middle East is struggling to be born, which is, paradoxically, a legacy of the Bush era, except that it happens to be far different from what the US president had in mind. Israel, of course, isn't alone in coming to terms with the "changed constellation" in the Middle East. Countries like India also are called on to quickly readjust.

India revives ties with Syria
India has reached out to its long-lost friend in the Arab world, Syria. Assad is on a five-day visit to India. Indian briefings said Assad's visit "further consolidated the excellent relations" between the two countries but steered a cautious line that does not offend the US or Israel.

Regarding the Arab-Israeli problem, the Indian briefing said, "The need for progress in the various tracks of the peace process, early implementation of various UN resolutions and the need for greater involvement of all significant regional and international participants were discussed. In this regard, noting recent developments, the two sides agreed to stay in close consultation on the next steps in the peace process."

The diplomatic objective of Assad's visit, from Delhi's perspective, is to revive India's links with all sides in the Middle East and keep options open at a time of change. A need arises to balance India's strong ties with Israel. Syria's articulate Expatriates Minister, Bouthaina Shaaban, who is a member of Assad's entourage, stated in Delhi that Syria hoped India's growing ties with Israel would not be at the cost of its historic links with the Arab world. Bouthaina pointedly said, "The Arab world always looked up to India as a country that seeks peace and dignity ... We trust that India will stand in support of justice. It cannot stand with occupation, it cannot stand with genocide. That's what has happened to the Arab world ... We believe India will stand by the Arab people."

Indeed, Delhi has some delicate balancing to do. India's ties with Israel have been extremely productive, especially the bilateral security cooperation and military-to-military ties. The relationship with Syria looks anaemic in comparison. During Assad's visit, two agreements were signed relating to investment protection and double-taxation avoidance and a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in agriculture.

But at the same time, India realizes that the US policy of isolating Syria has not worked and a new president in Washington may seek a change in policy. With Iraq lying in shambles, Syria's weight in the Arab world is increasing. Delhi decided that it is prudent to pick up the threads of its ties with Damascus, which went through an indifferent patch in the recent years when India's regional policy in the Middle East focused on rapidly building security cooperation with Israel and harmonizing with Washington's regional strategy.

India's overture to Iran
A similar rethink towards Iran is also apparent. Delhi has disengaged from Bush's vitriolic takes on Iran and underlined that the most effective way for solving the Iran problem is by way of addressing it through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) "without the accompanying cacophony of recrimination and threats of violence", to quote Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee. Clearly, India visualizes that the US engagement of Iran is a matter of time and is revamping its own policy, which took a battering in recent years when under US pressure Delhi voted twice against Iran in the IAEA over its nuclear program.

But Iran is a far tougher customer than Syria. Mukherjee, therefore, reserved some fine words for Iran in a major policy speech he delivered at the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research in Abu Dhabi last month. He described Iran as a "significant role-player in regional and world affairs".

Mukherjee explained, "I believe that engagement with Iran is important. Such engagement can play an effective role in promoting peace and stability in West Asia, particularly in Iraq and Palestine as also in Syria and Lebanon, while supporting the regional and global effort in combating extremism and terrorism. In this regard, I must mention that Iran plays an important role in Afghanistan. The international effort under way there would also benefit from greater engagement with Iran."

He spoke effusively. The speech followed Iranian President



Mahmud Ahmadinejad's brief stopover in Delhi in April. Mukherjee is scheduled to visit Iran for the second time in six months, in July. The broad thrust of this flurry of activity is to place Delhi as a player in West Asia, which it regards as a "part of India's extended neighborhood" and where, as Mukherjee put it in his Abu Dhabi speech, "We need to look collectively at the common regional challenges we face - political, economic and social and discuss these issues and find solutions together."

In short, Delhi foresees a collective security system for the region in which India "extends its hand of support and cooperation to the countries of the [Persian] Gulf and calls upon them to set up vibrant partnerships with us".

The impetus for such forward thinking also comes out of an unspoken factor- China's growing profile in the Middle East.

Anxieties regarding China
China currently imports 40% to 50% of the oil it consumes, out of which close to 60% comes from the Middle East. The dependence is expected to rise to 70% by 2015. "Therefore," as Professor Weiming Zhao of the Middle East Studies Institute of the Shanghai International Studies University recently wrote, "China has a significant interest in the Middle East, and any changes in the situation there will affect China's energy security. It is only natural for energy factors to play a role in China's policy toward the Middle East. Although China's opposition to the Iraq war and to the use of force to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue is not purely based on considerations of energy security, this is a key factor. In a word, energy diplomacy constitutes an important part of China's diplomacy."

Weiming concluded, "Therefore, it will remain the basic posture of China's diplomacy for a long time to come to pay more attention to the development of the situation in the Middle East, to be more concerned with Middle East affairs and to establish closer relations with Middle East countries."

Delhi is learning to manage China's growing Middle East influence. The Indian petroleum minister is currently visiting Saudi Arabia. Mukherjee visited Riyadh in April. A visit by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is in the cards. Saudi Arabia, which is India's principal supplier of oil, aims to double its oil exports to China in 2008. By 2010, Saudi exports to China are expected to touch 1 million barrels a day, which would place China as Riyadh's number one destination for its petroleum.

Again, China has an agreement with Iran to buy 250 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas over a 30-year period and to develop Iran's Yadavaran oil field, which has the estimated potential to yield 150,000 barrels a day over a 25-year period.

China also takes great care to develop energy cooperation with the US. The fourth round of the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue held in the US this week focused on the two countries taking "shared responsibilities" on energy issues on the basis of developing "a lot of converging points of interest", exploring "broad cooperation prospects with great mutual complementarities", tapping the "tremendous business opportunities involved" - to quote from a People's Daily commentary.

The commentary pointed out that in the energy sector, "China and the US are not only each other's stakeholders but construction partners ... the US has become the nation to be involved in the most cooperative items in China's petroleum industry. Persevering, unremitting efforts made by both sides have enabled such kind of cooperation to be imbued with an increasing global significance ... By working hand in hand, China and the US are meant not only to have common interests but to bear their shared responsibilities."

Equally, India sizes up China as a rival investment destination for sovereign wealth funds (SWF) of the oil-fired economies of the Persian Gulf. The cumulative value of SWF in the Middle East currently is estimated to be in the region of $1.5 trillion and is expected to triple or quadruple in the coming five to 10 years if oil prices remain at their current high level.

Apart from foreign markets, the funds make direct investments to help develop the local market. According to experts, $1.9 trillion worth of investments were either on the way or had been announced for the next seven years in the oil-and-gas producing Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The GCC groups Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar.

Mukherjee pointed out in his Abu Dhabi speech that India's sees itself as an "important partner" for the funds as an investment destination besides seeking to partake of the development of the services sector in the GCC countries "as contractors, sub-contractors and as contributors of human resources".

India must size up Islamism
But India's approach to the new Middle East must tackle an ideological dimension. Unlike China, can India, which has a large Muslim population with deep cultural links with the region, afford to stand aside from the battle for political ideas in the Middle East?

Iraq has transformed as a religious government. Several streams of Islamist activism have appeared in the region, but the Indian perceptions narrowly focus on the fringe manifestation, al-Qaeda. The mainstream Sunni Islamist movement is the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates such as Hamas, which are essentially non-violent movements with a quasi-legal political presence willing to become part of democratic life.

The mainstream Islamists spearhead mass movements that will not fade away. They are there to stay on the political landscape of India's "extended neighborhood". Hamas and Hezbollah have demonstrated that, given the opportunity, they are capable of making pragmatic political choices. Israel is way ahead of India in sizing up Islamism. With the distinct possibility of an Obama presidency in Washington, India needs to make haste in tiptoeing to the new Middle East. Plainly speaking, there is a lot of catching up to do.

M K Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for over 29 years, with postings including India's ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey (1998-2001).
I wonder how our relations with ME nations will be affected if BJP comes to power. Remember in B Raman's book "Kaoboys of RAW", if I remember correctly, BJP govt lacked the connections in the UAE in the 1999 Kandhahar hijacking, to get the Dubai govt to hold the plane in Dubai , unlike another incident in the 1980's, where we were able to work together with the Dubai govt, in the end the terrorists were arrested and on a flight back to India. B Raman mentioned that Gandhi family has immense respect in the ME, but BJP was perceived as anti muslim, so wasn't provided help by the Dubai govt.

What would happen to the defence agreements that we are negotiating with the GCC?
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by G Subramaniam »

shyamd wrote
---
Remember in B Raman's book "Kaoboys of RAW", if I remember correctly, BJP govt lacked the connections in the UAE in the 1999 Kandhahar hijacking, to get the Dubai govt to hold the plane in Dubai , unlike another incident in the 1980's, where we were able to work together with the Dubai govt, in the end the terrorists were arrested and on a flight back to India. B Raman mentioned that Gandhi family has immense respect in the ME, but BJP was perceived as anti muslim, so wasn't provided help by the Dubai govt.
---

The hijacking in the 1980s was done by khalistani kafirs
not by muslims
Even with a congress regime in place in India, the arab states will not help in the case of a muslim hijacker

The gulf states fear PRC, Putin and the US
Unless they fear that a brahmos will land in their palaces they will help the terrorists
IMHO, with Modi as PM, the gulf states will be well behaved
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by Johann »

The Gulf states have no fear of either Russia or the PRC. Neither of them can intervene decisively in a conflict in the Middle East, unlike the US.

The Gulf states have cultivated Russia and China particularly since 2003 as a counter-weight to the US - both have military hardware to sell, and the Russians provide very useful intelligence on American and Israeli activities.

The Gulf states are informally cooperating with the Russians on maintaining energy prices, and the Chinese are madly courting Arabs for access to oil. The Russians are madly buying real estate in the UAE.

Both Russia and the Gulf states have too much business at stake to allow differences over Chechnya to interfere with business.
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Post by ranganathan »

Gulf states don't fear PRC coz it is largely toothless and dependent on them for fuel. Russia is another matter. Russia cooperates with them to needle US, it doesn't need the arabs. The arabs need the russians to balance the US.
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Post by Johann »

Russia's strongest links in the Middle East are not to the Gulf Arabs, but Syria, dating back to the Khrushchev era.

Their next strongest relationship is with Iran, which developed in 1988 largely after the death of Khomeini, and the end of the Soviet occupation in Afghanistan.

Russia can not counter-balance the US in any conventional military respect in the Middle East.

It's power comes from its relationships with these two countries through arms sales, strategic high-technology sales, intelligence sharing, etc. Syria and Iran dont really have a lot of choice in partners when it comes to acquiring advanced weapons, technology and worldwide intelligence gathering.

Its established a track record as a useful and long-standing partner in such matters and so its offer to do the same with new partners such as Saudi Arabia or the UAE is very attractive to those countries. That plus massive shared economic interests in keeping energy prices high, and investing in each others booming economies.
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by G Subramaniam »

Johann
What I was saying is that if the gulf states intervene too much in chechnya or xinjiang, the PRC and Putin are ruthless enough to nuke ( if pushed far enough ) the gulf states

The gulf states are under no fear of PRC or Putin takeover
I think at the gut level, they fear the ruthlessness of the PRC and Putin that they will protect their core interests even despite the oil weapon
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Post by shyamd »

If BJP is in power, can we provide adequate protection to the millions of Indian nationals, can we pull the strings is what I was trying to get at. Take the rescue of 3 truck drivers in Iraq, it was Congress Minister E Ahmed's connections in Qatar which also helped in the release.
---------------------
Meanwhile Meir Dagan's tenure as Mossad Director has been extended till 2009. The chief has been given the task of preparing the ground work for a strike against Iran. I agree with B Raman's assessment that if Israel is to strike it will be during Bush's tenure, so in the next 3 - 5 months.
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IF cong is in power them millions of indians will die in terrorist attacks because they are afraid to do anything against pakis. Atleast with BJP pakis know they will get a proper reply. Its a start. The gulf indians are mostly muslims are of no consequence to state security. Not that it should stop GOI from launching a few brahmoses.
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by Vikas »

ranganathan wrote:IF cong is in power them millions of indians will die in terrorist attacks because they are afraid to do anything against pakis. Atleast with BJP pakis know they will get a proper reply. Its a start. The gulf indians are mostly muslims are of no consequence to state security. Not that it should stop GOI from launching a few brahmoses.
As if Indians did not die in terrorist attack during BJP tenure. Pray tell me what proper reply did BJP gave to Pakis as compared to Congress ?
ranganathan
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by ranganathan »

So we agree they cannot be worse off than the spineless gutless congress?
Johann
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by Johann »

G Subramaniam wrote:I think at the gut level, they fear the ruthlessness of the PRC and Putin that they will protect their core interests even despite the oil weapon
GS,

If China is that fearsome, why doesnt Pakistan do more to block the training and funding of Uighur jihadis, or stamp out the jihadis who regularly attack Chinese personnel and interests in Pakistan? Why did the Chinese try to buy off the Taliban in the late 1990s with weapons in exchange for a poorly enforced promise to block Uighurs from the training camps?

While Putin's Russia is willing to eliminate top Chechen leaders (zelimkhan Yanderbayev in Doha, 2004), beyond that its overall approach to moderating the support of the Gulf states has not been very different from India's.

a) Do your best to convince the Sheikhs that they've got more to gain through economic and security cooperation than appeasing dangerous jihadis.
b) Do your best to contain the insurgency to the point that its no longer making headlines

Putin came to power at the end of 1999. Gulf support to the Chechens was far, far larger than what they sent for Kashmir. What changed was the attacks in Riyadh and Jeddah in 2003, combined with US assertiveness in Iraq. Until then there were official charitable trusts headed by royals collecting tens of millions for the cause. Putin made no headway until this point.

The only places where Putin feels comfortable making threats are Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, Caspian and the north pole. Otherwise he's extremely cautious, attempting to cultivate soft power through oil, arms and intelligence.
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by Vikas »

ranganathan wrote:So we agree they cannot be worse off than the spineless gutless congress?
I guess there is no disagreement on that except for the fact that either BJP or congress, No one is really afraid of Indian military might.
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by shyamd »

Syrians and UN nuclear inspectors play hide and seek. The UN inspectors took their own soil samples and were given samples from the Syrians which were from a different site. The team interviewed Syrian army officers and men presented by Damascus as having been employed at the facility. They denied it was a nuclear reactor and possessing nuclear credentials themselves. But, according to DEBKA's intelligence sources, the inspectors countered with their own list of officers, scientists and technicians – not only Syrians, but also Iranians and North Koreans employed in building the facility. Which was refused by the Syrians

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5377
shyamd
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by shyamd »

Rafsanjani's visit to Mecca 2 weeks ago, was important. The Saudi officials (Muqrin-head of Interior ministry, Bandar bin Sultan and co) began by questioning Rafsanjani about the Mecca Brigade, a group apparently set up by Iran to de-stabilize the Saudi regime/govt. To back up his accusations, Bandar produced a map showing the movement’s training camps in a Southern Iraqi city and in the desert along the Iraq-Saudi border.

Rafsanjani, who is not a member of ruling circles in Tehran at present but chairs the Assembly of Experts which elects Iran’s spiritual leader, said he knew nothing about the Mecca Brigade but acknowledged that factions within the Iranian regime were hostile to Riyadh. He warned the Saudi's against backing any strike against Iran. Rafsanjani also mentioned that Iranian missiles would rain on oil facilities in all the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. "It is in the interest of the entire region that the missiles never leave their launch pads".

More tommorow...
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by wasu »

Turkey to open consulate in Hyderabad

http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/unc ... 64809.html

.....
Turkey would be the third country after Iran and the United States to set up its consulate in this southern city. While Iran already has a consulate, the American consulate is scheduled to become operational by the year-end.

Saudi Arabia has also evinced interest in setting up its consulate in Hyderabad, which emerged as a major information technology and bio-technology hub in recent times.

Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have historic relations with the four-centuries-old city, which was capital of the erstwhile Hyderabad State.

...
shyamd
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Re: Middle East News and Discussion

Post by shyamd »

Further confirmation that Crown Prince Sultan is sick, and some sources say that King Abdullah is very sick too and also visited the Genolier clinic in Geneva. The succession fight may soon kick off.

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CIA Chief (DCI) Mike Hayden is pressing ahead with visits to the ME. He recently dropped in Riyadh.

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A sort of deputy foreign minister, the commander of the Al Qods force, Qassimm Soleimani, has the last say in Iran’s covert operations in conflicts in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan. He been named adviser to the country’s spiritual guide, Ali Khamenei, for Iraqi and Afghan affairs.
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There was a French initiative last year to set up an international energy consortium to put together a civil nuclear energy industry in Iran in return for Tehran dropping its military programs.
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Saudi's taking on the Zaidist rebellion in Yemen. The Saudi Air Force bombed rebel positions. The Saudi's see Iran as backing the rebels.

Yemeni and Saudi intelligence claim there have been contacts between Abdul Malik al Huthi, the tribal chief and current commander of rebel forces, with the Circle of Revolutionary Movements, an organization that backs and coordinates action by Shi’a fighters outside Iran which was revived by Iran early this year.

The entire Yemeni regime has thrown itself into the battle against the Zaidists, including the son of president Ali Abdallah Saleh, colonel Ahmed Saleh, who commands special forces, and Hassan al Ahmar and Ali Mohsen Al Ahmor. Both are half brothers of the president and respectively command the Republican Guard and the army’s armored vehicle units.Yemeni forces have been reinforced by nearly 10,000 voluntary fighters from tribes loyal to Saleh’s government but also from Salafist movements abroad.

If the Zaidist rebellion takes over the Northern Sada province, Saudi's fears it could eventually form ties with Shi’ite movements within the Saud el Arab at a moment when Iran is suspected of setting up a Mecca Brigade(above). Qatar has stepped forward as an honest broker and has offered 500 million dollars to help develop the Sada province and guarantee asylum in Qatar to the rebellions' commander. But both sides in the dispute have rejected Qatari mediation, preferring to continue to fight it out. If the Zaidist insurrection looks like toppling Saleh’s regime the Saudis could fully intervene in the conflict.
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