NoKo-SoKo War crisis

[Philip]

Wikileaks show China's changing stand on the NoKo regime,which might explain the NoKo's belligerent behaviour and also the increasing pressure being brought to bear upon it by the US/SoKo.This is exactly what I said earlier about the NoKos worried about growing eco links between China and the US/West and wanting reassurance that they will not be abandoned,allowing the Kim regime to stay secure and well fed (by the west!) have struck first.

China 'ready to abandon' its old ally North Korea

By David Usborne, US Editor

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 47168.html

They reveal, for example, senior Chinese envoys revealing, if not directly to US counterparts then to opposite numbers in Seoul, that they sometimes are as flummoxed and as irritated with Pyongyang as the West, saying on one occasion that it was behaving like "a spoilt child" trying to get everyone's attention.

The US envoy to Seoul also told her superiors in Washington that she was hearing from South Korean officials in Seoul that they fully expect to see the final collapse of the regime to the north and unification within "two to three years" by its current – and by all accounts ailing – leader, Kim Jong-il.

The cables confirm that among China's greatest concerns is that an implosion of North Korea would lead to a mass exodus of the country's citizens across the border into China. However, it is not entirely unprepared for such an event. It considers itself ready to absorb 300,000 refugees even now. Beyond that number, Beijing might move to seal the border with its military.

Some of the new information is contained in an account of a 2009 conversation held by the US envoy ambassador Kathleen Stephens, with Chun Yung-woo, then vice-foreign minister of South Korea. He had relayed to her what he had learnt from two high-level Chinese foreign ministry officials on the fringes of currently stalled six-party talks on halting North Korea's nuclear programme.

Chun said he had been told that the younger members of China's leadership no longer considered a unified Korea to be out of the question but rather considered it a serious possibility in the future. This new attitude had come, they said, with the realisation also that North Korea could no longer be relied upon, even by China.

"The two officials, Chun said, were ready to 'face the new reality' that the DPRK [North Korea] now had little value to China as a buffer state", Ms Stephens says in her cable to Washington. She says the Chinese officials informed Chun that Beijing's Chinese leaders "would be comfortable with a reunited Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the United States in a benign alliance".

At the same time, there was an assumption that in the event of reunification, China would not want to see a significant number of US soldiers stationed north of what is now the border between the two countries and therefore closer to its own border area.

Coming just days after a new crisis erupted in the area with shells fired by North Korean forces landing on an island in the territory of the South, killing two citizens and instant evacuations and putting in motion significant new joint military manoeuvres of the US and South Korea, these revelations are certain to draw intense scrutiny. The aggression has been seen by some as the last flailings of a dying monster.

Caution will doubtless be urged about these cables. Nothing here could possibly be described as China's official position. Scholars will recall that when Kim Jong-il's father, North Korea's founder, passed away in 1994, a similar wave of wishful thinking broke out.

Some satisfaction will be drawn from passages in the cables suggesting that while China has always been regarded as the only country with any meaningful dialogue with Pyongyang, even it has admitted often to being in the dark about its intentions, particularly when it comes to nuclear matters.

It was after Pyongyang fired rockets over the Sea of Japan last year claiming they were trying to send satellites into space, that a Chinese official made his allusion to juvenile behaviour.

In a meeting with another senior diplomat in the region, He Yafei, a Chinese chargé d'affaires with the foreign ministry, observed that "North Korea wanted to engage directly with the United States and was therefore acting like a 'spoilt child' in order to get the attention of the 'adult'".

PS:As for the comments on the "well held" CWG,is anyone rooting for crooks like Kalmadi and Co. who siphoned off thousands of crores? Shame on you if so! There is no connection between our athletes' fine performances at the CWG and Asian Games and the wholesale looting of the taxpayer's/nation's money by the scamsters.The shameful pics we saw on TV of incomplete infrastructure spoke more than a thousand words and we now have the arrests and raids going on against the chiefs of the OC to justify our earlier condemnation of the same.

PPS:Guys,as for the NoKo missile sales to Iran,it is destabilising,but why is Iran so paranoid too? It is because the Saudis ,the Bahreinis and the rest of the Gulfis want the US,Israel,etc. to defang Iran,getting someonelse to do the job.When faced with such animosity from their own Muslim brethren,no wonder that the "surrounded" Iranians and NoKos link hands to defend themselves.Read Fisk's hilarious and accurate view of the ME angle to the leaks in the W.Asia thread,a must,link below.The great GUlf kngdoms,sheikdoms and their rulers stand fully exposed.This is not to defend the actions of these paranoid states,it is understanding why they behave so erratically.Secondly,Iran is our strategic buffer to Pak and an objective of this and other GOI's,even if our support for it has weakened thanks to US presurre,we
do not want to abandon our strategic interests vis-a-vis Pak.NoKo's "Ding-Dong" missile sales to Pak,with PRC connivance during Clinton's days,were far more destabilising to India than Iran's,which are aimed at the Saudi's and Iran's M-East enemies rather than India.

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/co ... 46971.html

[amit]

PS:As for the comments on the "well held" CWG,is anyone rooting for crooks like Kalmadi and Co. who siphoned off thousands of crores? Shame on you if so! There is no connection between our athletes' fine performances at the CWG and Asian Games and the wholesale looting of the taxpayer's/nation's money by the scamsters.The shameful pics we saw on TV of incomplete infrastructure spoke more than a thousand words and we now have the arrests and raids going on against the chiefs of the OC to justify our earlier condemnation of the same.

Nice try at spin Philip.

Since it's off topic on this thread I'll let it pass. Anyway I think I've espoused on the difference between criticizing that crook Kalmadi and highlighting the racist articles published in Gora press which you meticulously used to post on the CWG thread. So let sleeping dogs lie.

And yes good to see you acknowledge the "fine performance" of our athletes.

[Philip]

Amit,I was a good "leggie" in my salad days! Racist reporting against the nation from media abroad is absolutely reprehensible.No waffling about that.It is not that "we" cannot "do it",but as was excellently put out during the CWG crisis,there is a vast difference beteween coroprate India's performance in organising events and that of the GOI.Kalmadi and crooks unlimited,were given a blank cheque by the PMO/cabinet and we saw the result.Now the first F-1 race is going to be held in India next year hopefully,organised not by the GOI.We'll see the huge difference then.

Back to the Korean crisis.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... again.html

North Korea 'highly likely to attack South Korea again'
North Korea is highly likely to attack the South again, according to South Korea's intelligence chief, a week after Pyongyang fired a barrage of artillery shells at a South Korean island.

[Pratyush]

Then let the south use that as a provocation to hurt the North.

[Fidel Guevara]

More damaging than a non-nuclear war, would be the social and economic costs of integrating millions of poor, hungry NoKo people. If a SoKo worker is paid $20/hour, a NoKo equivalent would be willing to work for many times less, say $0.50/hour. We may see mass-scale outsourcing of jobs Northwards, leading to huge unemployment and unrest in the South. East Germany was relatively more equal to FRG pre-unification, perhaps 50-60% less prosperous on a per capita basis. Here we have people earning maybe 50 times less!

On the other hand, NoKo would also be easy game for modern scamsters, as they are dealing with people who have absolutely no idea about financial scams. Expect overnight billionaires to emerge, as major state assets are sold off at rock-bottom prices, a la USSR.

All in all, a war and its aftermath would be very interesting...but my gut feel is that "saner heads" will prevail and we will just continue the cold war.

[ramana]

I think Nightwatch take on the leak on Korean Unification is relevant.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 81#p987581

Bascially he says the US diplomat was anive in thinking the PRC will support Korean unification.

[amit]

More damaging than a non-nuclear war, would be the social and economic costs of integrating millions of poor, hungry NoKo people. If a SoKo worker is paid $20/hour, a NoKo equivalent would be willing to work for many times less, say $0.50/hour. We may see mass-scale outsourcing of jobs Northwards, leading to huge unemployment and unrest in the South. East Germany was relatively more equal to FRG pre-unification, perhaps 50-60% less prosperous on a per capita basis. Here we have people earning maybe 50 times less!

On the other hand, NoKo would also be easy game for modern scamsters, as they are dealing with people who have absolutely no idea about financial scams. Expect overnight billionaires to emerge, as major state assets are sold off at rock-bottom prices, a la USSR.

All in all, a war and its aftermath would be very interesting...but my gut feel is that "saner heads" will prevail and we will just continue the cold war.

Fidel,

I agree with all you say, especially about the social ramifications in South in case of the reunification. But there's also a huge uptick potential. What would happen is if 20 million or so of NoKo's population joined up with South Korea, you'd have a country with a cost base lower than Vietnam (in the north) joined with near first world technological base.

True a few years of turmoil but the upswing for the (unified) Korean economy would be enormous. Companies like Samsung, LG etc wouldn't have to invest billions abroad in places like China to take the benefit of low cost manufacturing when they would have an even lower cost and disciplined workforce in north of their own country. Even non Korean companies which are now based out of China would - methinks - jump at the opportunity of taking advantage of this low cost manufacturing within Korean border.

In fact I'd go so far to say this could spur a unified Korea to become a new Japan - after of course a few years of pain. No the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow would be too big for (South) Korea to balk if there indeed was a chance at reunification.

However, that's the moot point. As the Nightwatch piece which Ramana ji cross posted says, one shouldn't take Chinese statements at face value. All of them are made to fool the West (and South Korea) to bankroll North Korean food and other humanitarian requirements.

I don't see the Chinese Communist Party relinquishing control over a satellite which can be used as an useful proxy for clandestine activity like transferring missile technology to Pakistan and Iran. Nightwatch says the North Koreans reconfigured the Russian SS-N-6 missiles into truck mobile SN-25. I would be highly surprised if they could do that without Chinese help. Just as it would be surprising if North Korean nuclear technology grew up indigenously. In India we've seem how, despite having a far bigger technological and scientific base than North Korea (or for the matter Pakistan), much difficult it is to develop nuclear technology from scratch.

Bottomline, if there's no major shake up within China itself I don't see it giving up North Korea for absorption by South Korea.

Also, remember a unified Korea with close relations with the US would be a economic as well as political threat to China.

JMT

[Fidel Guevara]

But there's also a huge uptick potential. What would happen is if 20 million or so of NoKo's population joined up with South Korea, you'd have a country with a cost base lower than Vietnam (in the north) joined with near first world technological base.

True a few years of turmoil but the upswing for the (unified) Korean economy would be enormous. Companies like Samsung, LG etc wouldn't have to invest billions abroad in places like China to take the benefit of low cost manufacturing when they would have an even lower cost and disciplined workforce in north of their own country. Even non Korean companies which are now based out of China would - methinks - jump at the opportunity of taking advantage of this low cost manufacturing within Korean border.

Amit, yes I didn't think of that. If MNCs (starting with SoKo and Japanese MNCs) really start to leverage 20 million ultra-low-cost, disciplined workers - that would be enough to put a major dent in China's manufacturing sector. A united Korea would see economic growth rates like Japan & Germany in the 50's. Per capita GDP would see a tumble for a few years, but it would be great in the long term.

[Philip]

SoKo threatens a "socko"!

South Korea warns it will hit North with air strikes if they attack again
South Korea will hit back with air strikes at the North and "punish the attacker thoroughly" should the regime launch another assault, the defence minister-designate has warned.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... again.html

In Seoul the nominated defence minister Kim Kwan-Jin told a parliamentary confirmation hearing that if the regime of Kim Jong-il attacked again, "we would definitely use the air force to strike back".

The South's military counter-attacked with artillery after the North on November 23 shelled a border island, killing two civilians and two marines. But Seoul refrained from using air power for fear of escalating the clash.

The South's response was widely blasted as feeble and the previous defence minister announced he would step down to take responsibility.

Mr Kim, a retired four-star general and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the South would exercise its right to self-defence and "punish the attacker thoroughly until the source of hostility is eliminated".

Mr Kim said the attack triggered "the most serious crisis" since the 1950-53 war. But he dismissed the chance of full-scale war as slim, citing the military prowess of South Korean and allied US forces, which have 28,500 troops based in the country.

[Philip]

War inside SoKO's parliament!
Dear Leader Kim must be beside himself with laughter,as his shelling of a SoKo island has resulted in the SoKo MPs battling eah other!

South Korean parliament descends into mass brawl
South Korea's politicians descended into a large scale brawl, building a furniture blockade as the government pushed through the 2011 budget.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... brawl.html

[amit]

War inside SoKO's parliament!
Dear Leader Kim must be beside himself with laughter,as his shelling of a SoKo island has resulted in the SoKo MPs battling eah other!

South Korean parliament descends into mass brawl
South Korea's politicians descended into a large scale brawl, building a furniture blockade as the government pushed through the 2011 budget.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... brawl.html

Philip,

Call that the weakness of democracy if you will but that's how the free world operates. If you recall after Agra even Musharaff had bad words to say to his cronies about the seeming weakness of Indian politicians and inability to take "decisive action".

It's always good to remember that if ordinary North Koreans got a chance (perhaps they eventually will) they'd tear, limb by limb, every single member of North Korea's ruling elite starting with the Dear Leader and his debauch son.

[wig]

Chinese Official Meets N. Korea’s Kim

SHANGHAI — A senior Chinese official met with Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader, on Thursday and came to some consensus about the crisis on the Korean Peninsula, according to Xinhua, China’s official news agency.

China gave few details about the meeting or the consensus but said that Dai Bingguo, one of the nation’s top diplomats, had candid talks with North Korea’s leader in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/10/world ... ml?_r=1&hp

[Pratyush]

Where have I seen this before............

North Korea threatens South Korea with nuclear war

[Gurinder P]

Regarding the nuclear readiness and availability of fissile material North Korea has, is really dumbfounding my mind. I personally see a paradox happening between NK and China regarding relations and nuclear cooperation and the relationship the USSR and PRC had before the split.

The reason I bring up the Sino-Soviet split is because of a thorough lecture my history class had on the topic and what my History professor regarded as Mao not having the sanity to understand the MAD doctrine and Khrushchev strongly feeling the Mao would instigate Global Nuclear War without thinking things through, therefore he suspended all Nuclear Aid and adamantly told Mao to bugger off and he wasn't giving up the bomb, hence, resulting in the split.

Thus, this brings me to my current state of thoughts about the North receiving aid in development of fissile materials; why would China want to help?

I mean, China has a lot to lose from NK launching a nuclear strike, from counter nuclear bombardment that could release radioactive contaminants across into PRC regions (which would be deadly since the PRC coastline is extremely dense) to loss of foreign capital from SK companies for the domestic workforce, leading to mass unemployment.

Concurrently, Nuclear first strike isn't really on any sane leaders agenda, (Hu is a technocrat as well as Wen), but giving Kim the bomb is like handing a frag to the child (You won't know what will happen but the end will be messy). What I am basically trying to say is that Kim is to China, what Mao was to the USSR; an extremely disturbed person who did not know the large scale implications of his actions. Though I do give a grain of salt to Mao, since he really was a spectacular leader and a man for the people before he went all paranoid.

Finally, the harder stance China seems to be taking with the North is making me think that the PRC is concerned about the nuclear readiness of the North and wants to make sure the Dear Leader isn't going to do something regrettable.

If it was up to me and I was Hu or Wen, I would order an assassination of Kim and his entire blood line to ensure some stability, and the PRC can still have a buffer state.

Any thoughts?

[Pratyush]

Regarding the nuclear readiness and availability of fissile material North Korea has, is really dumbfounding my mind. I personally see a paradox happening between NK and China regarding relations and nuclear cooperation and the relationship the USSR and PRC had before the split.

The reason I bring up the Sino-Soviet split is because of a thorough lecture my history class had on the topic and what my History professor regarded as Mao not having the sanity to understand the MAD doctrine and Khrushchev strongly feeling the Mao would instigate Global Nuclear War without thinking things through, therefore he suspended all Nuclear Aid and adamantly told Mao to bugger off and he wasn't giving up the bomb, hence, resulting in the split.
SNIP..........

The time line in the first two paras seems to be off.......

The prc detonated the first bomb in 64 the sino soviet split was cemented in 69 with the border clashes. Rest of the thesis I will not offer any comments.

[Gurinder P]

Regarding the nuclear readiness and availability of fissile material North Korea has, is really dumbfounding my mind. I personally see a paradox happening between NK and China regarding relations and nuclear cooperation and the relationship the USSR and PRC had before the split.

The reason I bring up the Sino-Soviet split is because of a thorough lecture my history class had on the topic and what my History professor regarded as Mao not having the sanity to understand the MAD doctrine and Khrushchev strongly feeling the Mao would instigate Global Nuclear War without thinking things through, therefore he suspended all Nuclear Aid and adamantly told Mao to bugger off and he wasn't giving up the bomb, hence, resulting in the split.
SNIP..........

The time line in the first two paras seems to be off.......

The prc detonated the first bomb in 64 the sino soviet split was cemented in 69 with the border clashes. Rest of the thesis I will not offer any comments.

You are correct on the detonations, and I was actually thinking about China's first Thermo-Nuke test, but the USSR still withheld info and china had to make the bomb from scratch. (FAS.org confirms this)

The Sino Soviet cooling started when Khruschev gave his anti-Stalin platform in 1956.

[Philip]

More SoKo high-profile casualties! After the Def.Min. resigned,it's now the turn of the Army chief,in the light of NoKo's Nuke ambitions.

South Korean army chief quits as scale of North's nuclear ambition emergesGeneral Hwang Eui-don's resignation follows that of defence minister in the wake of attack on Yeonpyeong island.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/de ... hief-quits

The chief of the South Korean army resigned today, two weeks after the defence minister was replaced amid sharp criticism of the country's response to North Korea's attack on Yeonpyeong island.

General Hwang Eui-don's resignation came as South Korean intelligence officials warned that North Korea has been secretly enriching uranium at as many as four undisclosed locations, potentially giving it access to a new source of fissile material for nuclear weapons.

The enrichment plants are in addition to a similar facility at the regime's main nuclear facility in Yongbyon, revealed last month, following a visit by the US scientist Siegfried Hecker.

North Korean officials claimed that the Yongbyon plant had more than 1,000 working centrifuges, but insisted they were intended for power generation and not for the production of weapons-grade uranium.

"The business of peacefully developing nuclear energy and using it is happening in our country, in line with the international trend," the Rodong Sinmun, the newspaper of North Korea's ruling party, said today. "Peaceful nuclear activity is a sovereign right of all nations."

Hwang is said to have resigned over his involvement in a property investment deal, but his departure will be seen as a further blow to the country's military so soon after the Yeonpyeong attack, which killed two soldiers and two civilians.

Kim Tae-young resigned as defence minister to take responsibility for what many South Koreans believed was a weak response to the 23 November attack, the first targeting civilians since the 1950-53 Korean war.

The South fired artillery rounds in response but did not order air strikes. It has since vowed to retaliate with much greater force to any further provocations by Pyongyang.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency said Hwang, who only took up the post in June, was under pressure over profits from the property deal.

"General Hwang offered to retire following media reports about his property investment, because he judged it was inappropriate for him to stay in the post at a time when he has to lead reform of the army," Yonhap quoted a defence ministry official as saying.

His resignation comes on the eve of South Korea's biggest civil defence drill for years. Fighter jets will fly around the country and people will run to thousands of underground shelters as part of a simulation of a North Korean air attack.

News that the North's uranium enrichment programme may be more widespread than previously thought could add to fears that the regime is seeking to augment its plutonium stockpile.

"The uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon that the North disclosed to US scientist Siegfried Hecker is not among the three or four South Korea and the US have established to be in existence," the intelligence official was quoted as saying in the Chosun Ilbo newspaper.

"We have established that the uranium enrichment tests that the North has been conducting for some time are at separate locations."

The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, yesterday voiced "deep concern" about the uranium enrichment programme in a meeting with his North Korean counterpart, Pak Ui-chun.

Lavrov urged Pyongyang to comply with UN security council resolutions banning uranium enrichment and called for a quick resumption of six-party talks on its nuclear programme. Aside from Russia and the two Koreas, the stalled talks involve the US, China and Japan.

The failure to resume multiparty negotiations sparked a new regional diplomatic push that will continue in the coming days.

South Korea's nuclear envoy was due to meet his Russian counterpart to discuss the shelling and uranium enrichment, while the governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, will begin a four-day, private visit to North Korea on Thursday.

[Pratyush]

S Korea stages mass evacuation drill amid tension

The south is getting serious about the crisis. A well trained civillian population is key to reducing casualities in war and is an asset as it cannot be terrorised.

[Philip]

This could be another reason why.

North Korea 'could be preparing for third nuclear test'Tunnel being dug could herald nuclear test in March, South Korean newspaper reports

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/de ... clear-test

[AnimeshP]

Looks like neither SoKo nor NoKo are backing down .. SoKo supposed to resume live fire drills at around 1:00 PM local time today and has ordered civilians into air raid shelters in anticipation of NoKo response ...
source

[Ashutosh Malik]

This could be another reason why.

North Korea 'could be preparing for third nuclear test'Tunnel being dug could herald nuclear test in March, South Korean newspaper reports

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/de ... clear-test

Do the North Koreans have a functioning nuke device?

Did they do a proper nuclear blast or did they just use enough TNT and some radiating material combined to create a so called nuclear blast in their so called nuclear tests?

And do they have enough refined material to keep wasting on such "nuclear tests"?

Best regards.

[Gagan]

So Ko just wants to blow off some steam.
Ultimately they are in an even worse situation that India is. Feel sorry for them.

Their government has to do this big stunt to assure the people, assuage their feelings of insecurity and protect its political echendee.

If only wishes were horses, the crazy dictators in No Ko would get duly punished.

[Philip]

SoKo has to regain some dignity and honour and are "barking" at NoKo,who "bit" them earlier and threatened massive rsponse to today's live exercises.I guess we'll have to wait and see whose bark is worse than his bite!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 65027.html

South Korea conducts live fire artillery drills
Monday, 20 December 2010

A live-firing exercise by South Korea passed without incident today despite threats from North Korea of "catastrophic retaliation" if it went ahead.

There was no immediate sign of any North Korean military response during the drill.

The South evacuated hundreds of residents near its land border with the North and sent residents of islands near disputed waters into underground bunkers amid fears of war.

UN diplomats meeting in New York failed to find any solution to the crisis, but there was some sign of diplomacy today, as a high-profile American governor announced what he said were two nuclear concessions from the North.

The live-fire exercises came nearly a month after the North responded to earlier manoeuvres by shelling Yeonpyeong island, killing two marines and two civilians in its first attack targeting civilian areas since the 1950-53 Korean War.

Pyongyang had said it would respond even more harshly to any new drills from the Yellow Sea island, though it added that its strikes would be "unpredictable."

The drills on Yeongpyeong, a tiny enclave of fishing communities and military bases about seven miles from North Korean shores, involved several types of weapons.

[Surya]

Soko doing a little Parakaram of itsown

would be very interesting to hear the Noko intercepts

[Victor]

More damaging than a non-nuclear war, would be the social and economic costs of integrating millions of poor, hungry NoKo people. If a SoKo worker is paid $20/hour, a NoKo equivalent would be willing to work for many times less, say $0.50/hour.

It is probably much more complicated than this after factoring in the costs of their current subsidized existence and the level of social disruption that could erupt. NoKo denizens get almost everything for free or close to free—food, clothing, housing, transportation—courtesy of china. Like our neighbors to the west, NoKo is a kept concubine-cum-pariah which likely cannot produce even safety pins on its own. Similarly, their level of real education or lack thereof may come as a shock—to maintain human beings in a zombie-like state, they have to be trained to believe in the commie equivalent of djinns. This alludes to the vast majority aam NoKoians, not the layers of elites naturally. Then the effects of the “harvest” which western Bible-thumpers backed by their SoKo converts are salivating about could also throw up some interesting twists as most NoKoians are mainly closet Buddhists if they have any spiritual/religious inclinations at all. In sum of course, reunification will be a positive not just for Korea but for Asia and the world.