Patna Blasts : 27 Oct 2013 (News and Discussion)

[Rudradev]

]

At this point, it does look like it was an assassination attempt. The below report looks like it was hastily done..but it could be that this is raw news with no spin

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/patn ... 20736.html

...
A news report in Gulf News on Monday, quoting the confession of IM operative Imtiyaz, said he and another person were to supposed blow themselves up near the BJP leader's dais in Gandhi Maidan after triggering three blasts around the stage through remote control.
...

But Bihar Police said the plan was to create panic and trigger a stampede.

I am very skeptical about the plan as narrated by this Imtiyaz.

Think about it. The ONE critical factor for a suicide bomber's success is the element of SURPRISE. Like Dhanu in Sriperumbudur. No one saw her coming or thought to keep her away from Rajiv Gandhi because she looked perfectly normal, and because up to the last second, everything was going on perfectly normally.

In a crowd like the one at Gandhi Maidan... it is challenging for a would-be suicide bomber to get near the stage because of the sheer density of people. That's even without anything else seeming wrong at the time the bomber is trying to get within range of his target. But AFTER triggering three blasts around the stage? At that point the janta is in high panic, rushing and pressing in all directions. Modi's personal security is on high alert and have probably already cordoned around him and begun to whisk him away. Moving carefully and deliberately towards your target in that mad rush of people is completely unpredictable if not impossible... this is NOT an operating procedure he would want to stake the success of his mission on, especially since as a suicide bomber he only has one chance to get it right.

So I think what he is saying is BS. He is cooking up a herrowic "fidayeen" story of trying to suicide-bomb Narendra Modi because it sounds much better than "oh, we were trying to create a panic among ordinary people so that they would stampede and we could then take advantage of the bad publicity."

[ramana]

RD, We need to find out what blew up in the toilet in the railway station before coming to conclusions.

OTH if the surviving terrorist claims their mission was to attack Modi then Shinde denying need for SPG protection shows he is wrong.

[VikramS]

The ISI thingy is a red-herring.

After the about face on Ishrat Jahan by the LeT and all the track-II stuff it is clear to me that there is an understanding that the TSP will come to the aid of the C-System as needed.

So whenever C wants to get some dirty work done they activate the IM modules; ISI being the convenient bogey.
Since they are Indians, TSP can not be blamed.
And C-system can blame ISI so no internal fall out.

RG was already blaming ISI even before the attack happened. That bizarre statement of his was a dead give-away. It did not make any sense at all, except for setting the stage for the attack on Modi with the ISI taking the fall.

[VikramS]

Rudradev:


The aim was to call a massive stampede towards the dais , and use the confusion to get close to the leaders.
If you see the placement of explosives and their timing, it was classic channelization. Start at the back, and then attack at the flank. The expectation was that people will run in the direction of opposite of the blast.

And it was in the diagonally opposite side the second set of delayed explosives were kept.

The goal was to create a stampede in the direction of the dais and use the chaos to come closer to the leaders.

There was military planning behind the actions; it was not something random.

[member_22872]

In Benazir's assassination, shots were first fired to create chaos and then suicide bomb was exploded...something similar?

[ramana]

Now need to find out where the five UXB were found?

From previous page in teh Hindutan Times report:

The police recovered five live bombs from Gandhi Maidan on Tuesday, two days after a series of blasts were triggered in and around the venue of BJP prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi's rally.

All five bombs were placed at strategic locations to cause the maximum damage but did not go off as the wires were not properly connected.

Serial blasts during the BJP’s hunkar (battle cry) rally claimed six lives and left more than 90 people injured at the 52-acre ground in the Bihar capital.


"One bomb was found close to the auto stand on the ground’s north-eastern end while three were found near the Gandhi statue on the north-western end. Another was placed quite close to the police control room set up for the rally,” a police official said.

...

Can some one take that picture and annotate the UXB loactions. Appears that Gandhi Statue near the NW end got special attention with 3 of them.
And one for the police to spread terror in the command center.

Auto stand could be to prevent any casualty evacuation by private efforts.
The Bihar govt had not planned anything official any way.

All in all these guys had surveyed the Gandhi Maidan earlier to find best locations.

[Prem Kumar]

I am more worried about sniper after having seen the arrangements of Modi rallies. Lot of chaos, not enough frisking. Very risky onlee.

The practice of the US secret service is to occupy all vantage points on nearby buildings.

Would also be advisable to use bullet-proof glass on the stage.

I dont know if the Z+ NSG guys or even the SPG have such protocols. The Wiki entry on SPG talks only about proximate security, not an extensive sweep.

[ramana]

Deccan Chronicle has very interesting story:

Ind Muj wanted human bomb

A bomb each was found near the Police Information Room, children's park and a place opposite the Magadh Mahila College, all on Gandhi Maidan, Deputy Superintendent of Police (City) Manoj Kumar Tiwari said.

The mastermind, IM operative Tehseen Akhtar alias Monu, who supervised the operation had handed over 18 IEDs to his operatives to be planted. The seven low-intensity bombs went off on October 27.

Investigations into the Sunday’s Patna serial blasts have revealed that the terrorist attack was a well-planned operation carried out by at least 18 Indian Mujahideen operatives who were divided into three modules.

It has also been learnt, intelligence sources said, that Ranchi was the centre where the conspiracy to target Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s Patna rally was hatched. The bombs were assembled in Ranchi and taken to Patna by members of the three modules.

The operation was supervised by key IM operative Tehseen Akhtar alias Monu, and Waqas. Both were on the radar of the intelligence agencies for some time.

So was the operaton allowed to proceed? What is going on?

...
Preliminary investigations revealed the IM team that was involved in the Bodh Gaya blast appeared to be behind the Patna blast. NIA officials said similarities existed in the timers used in the two attacks.

Intelligence inputs and investigations reveal that IM terrorists wanted to carry out a 'human bomb' attack at rally, but failed as this particular module lacked the expertise to put together such a sophisticated explosive. Therefore only low-intensity explosives were used.

{I think there is type of thinking being displayed here. They think a human bobm can oly be created with RDX just as in Rajiv Gandhi case. What they dont get is if close enough this low intensity could also do the job.}

Sources claimed Tehseen was in Ranchi a few days before the Patna attack, and before that he is learnt to have travelled to Pushkar in Rajasthan. Massive raids have begun on possible IM hideouts in Ranchi and other places.

Highly-placed intelligence sources here rubbished the Bihar government’s claims that it had not received any security alert or intelligence inputs on Modi’s Patna rally.

Also if a suicide bomber threat is clear to MOdi what is the reluctance of Shinde to authorize SPG protection? Is that only for Nehru family?


Rahul baba has to pay someone to get rid of him. He is doing a great job of political hara kiri.

BTW Deccan Chronicle has 36 photos of the rally.

Hats off to the police personnel in the aftermath of the bombs for defusing them and carrying the wounded to shelter. Especially the officer who defused the bomb in the railway station and got injured. Hope he gets well.

And very sad to see crude metal detectors as their primary bomb detection apparatus.

[Rudradev]

Ramana, I'm not the one jumping to a conclusion... I'm merely pointing out that the facts don't (yet) support a conclusion that NaMo was a dedicated target of a suicide bombing attempt in Patna. Certainly the aim was to cause political damage, but if this was supposed to be an assassination, it was ineptly handled.

VikramS, I'm not buying it. I don't recall saying that this was "random", and it certainly was planned, but planned to achieve what exactly?

What would the terrorists achieve by channelization? Even for channelization, this was hardly the most effective setup. If you want to channelize a stampede, you set your timers at 30 second or 1 minute increments. You do not give your targets time to take any rational decisions, as the loci and frequency of blasts propel them in running masses towards your direction of choice. Five to fifteen minute increments allow a long time for people to meander or depart the location, and for the system to become unpredictably chaotic.

This setup, at best, could create local perturbations within the system and confound relief/security operations. Hundreds would have died in stampedes in different parts of the maidan if things had gone according to plan, and thousands more would have left the maidan in fear. But I do not see any way the terrorists could have taken advantage of this to get closer to Modi and carry out a suicide bomb assassination. How do you get within effective range of your target by creating an insane density of people in the zone directly nearest him, especially if you've already put his security cordon's radar up by continuously setting off bombs for an hour and twenty minutes ahead of time? By the end of it, even if you had somehow worked your way through the packed and unruly mass of humanity near the stage, the guards would never let any unfamiliar person get close enough to do the job.

A suicide bomber who wanted to assassinate a political leader would have worked alone, or with one or two other spotters; not the twenty-odd Abduls this kind of operation must have required, yielding a vast margin of error. He would have worked his way to within effective range using the natural density and energy of the crowd, and without attracting attention to himself. Once within range, he would not have wasted time setting off three diversionary bombs at other points around the stage... he would have simply done what he came there to do. Something like this may yet be attempted at subsequent Narenda Modi rallies; but I seriously doubt it was the primary intention during this one.

[Rudradev]

BTW, since there is a lot of chatter in DDM about "high intensity" vs. "low intensity" blasts... here is a video of how a pressure cooker bomb, which these dorks would classify as "low intensity", explodes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aD_Ufn1ROw0

The report does not say what explosive was used, but presumably it was something similar to what the Boston bombers used (since the demo was in that context.)

[fanne]

Rudradev ji,
I detect some obvious fallacy in their approach, but there is no point repeating it here. Even if some high powered professional TSPA group or someone in IM is coordinating it, I don't want to make their task any easier by giving my amateur input. Recall to this date, what was wrong with NYC bum has not been revealed (in which the TSPAF air Marshall son was caught).
My take, these hijras were high on religious fervor and low on intelligence and that's why all these mistakes.

[harbans]

Those green gaps in the middle of those pics ..i think that is where the bombs that did not explode (one did) were being guarded off by the crowd waiting for the Bihar police to do it's job..which it did with ineptness..

http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/BIH-in ... html?seq=1

[ramana]

BP may not have enough disposal squads. it takes nerves of steel to do the job. Those guys dont even drink coffee.
The right question to ask is despite so many IM terrorists rounded up over the years how come BP doesn't have adeqaute resources?

[Philip]

This was by all accounts a failed assassination attempt on Mr.Modi. From the wealth of evidence one can only draw such a conclusion.Strangely,this mirrors the failed attempt on LKA years ago,just before elections,where time-bombs were placed all around his planned meeting spot,where suicide bombers were to have finished him off.He was saved by his plane arriving late.The faiuled attempt though electrified the electorate,the BJP won the election and its first seat from the south.The so-called Al-Umma outfit,with had many youth from Kerala in its ranks,was the forerunner to the so-called IM,in truth Paki proxies both.

However,in Mr.Modi's case,there is a concerted attempt by his political rivals to "stop him at any cost".You are more likely to find the heart of the conspiracy in Delhi rather than Pindi. It does serve both interests too-on both sides of the border. Modi is a great danger to both sides.If he/the NDA wins the next election and comes to power,it will savage the Gandhi-Nehru idolatry of the Congress,shattering it to pieces and like "Humpty Dumpty",all Queen Sonia's asses and all the Queen's masses will never be able to put it together again.Similarly,he will take a strong view of Paki perfidy against India and robustly defend the nation's honour and sovereignty.The manner in which his safety and security is being treated by the UPA and its allies is simply scandalous,reminiscent of the manner in which Rajiv G was shamefully treated by VP Singh.Unlike the failed attempt on LKA,where elections were round the corner and consequently the BJP won,here,there is ample time for the heat and dust of a planned conspiracy of the untimely departure from the political scene by Modi to settle before elections are called.In the interim other stunts can easily be arranged to suit the ruling regime.

[VikramS]

Rudradev:

Five minutes is the ideal time. In such a large setting it takes time for news to travel and for people to start moving.
Ideas was to get the movement going in one direction, and then blow a bomb to hit the people moving in that direction.
It was the series of bombs each blocking an escape route which would cause the eventual panic.

Try to model the movement of such a large group of people with the assumption that they will move away from the blast site and see what you can conclude. It is scary.

Also remember that some bombs did not explode.

And why would they want a belt if there was no suicide attempt?

[VikramS]

harbans: That picture is from much earlier in the day before the bombs exploded.
That is why you still have people in the area where 5th or 6th bomb exploded and no one in the area where the 1st few exploded.
By the time the 1st few bombs exploded those areas were occupied.

[disha]

Rudradev, you are missing some key points.

1. Soosai Bum does not have to work in isolation. The bummer *may* be the actual foil. Take out the ring perhaps giving another a chance?

2. We do not know how many actually were there? Now from above reports it sounds like 18 were actively involved? You just do not round up 18 jeehards and they go yay and do a meticulous planning in a day. This was meticulously planned.

3. This could be a dry run! Remember how many times Sivarasan did his?

[Gus]

If a belt is confirmed then this is beyond doubt a suicide assassination attempt.

[VikramS]

Also folks, keep in mind that "they" have not had a lot of time to plan for this.
Modi was announced as the PM candidate in September.
Till then C-System was hoping that D-4 could sabotage his chances.

So "they" put together whatever they could quickly. I am surprised that they were able to get 18 so quickly.

But with quantity, quality suffers. And that is what seems to have saved the day (pre-mature explosions, wires not joined together).

The intent was there, as was the muscle power.

[Dipanker]

Patna blasts: sources say 18 bombs planted, all accounted for now

Patna: Two days after a string of blasts struck Patna, it has now emerged that 18 bombs were planted throughout the city before Narendra Modi's Hunkar rally. Sources say six men were tasked with planting three bombs each at and near the venue of Mr Modi's rally, the Gandhi Maidan.

Sources also say that all the bombs have now been accounted for. Seven exploded on Sunday, killing six people and injuring 83, while the rest have been defused or detonated by the bomb squads.

[Rahul M]

The practice of the US secret service is to occupy all vantage points on nearby buildings.

Would also be advisable to use bullet-proof glass on the stage.

I dont know if the Z+ NSG guys or even the SPG have such protocols. The Wiki entry on SPG talks only about proximate security, not an extensive sweep.

SPG certainly does. they would land up days in advance for ASL. their checks are quite thorough (f.e they would take apart every electronic item the protectee can come in touch with and check for untoward items)
their in-house intel team, staffed by eye bee people on deputation would go through all possible threats beforehand and plan accordingly.

NSG secures only the immediate area of the protectee.

SPG sanitizes venues, seals routes and controls access to the area.

if this is true, perhaps it's time to make an exception for the ones truly under threat.

ramana ji, SPG act specifies that it is for the protection of PM's, ex-PM's and their families. shinde or anyone cannot arbitrarily extend that protection to anyone else without amending the law.
better solution would be to improve NSG.

[Prem]

IMHO, One thing is now pretty much clear that IM is tool of Dilli Billis, so called secular snakes and internal Islamist stake holders. Hope IB knows the hand which rocked the Gandhi Maidan.

[ramana]

If a belt is confirmed then this is beyond doubt a suicide assassination attempt.

Gus Read about the guy who got wounded in the toilet and later died in the hospital.

That guy was trying to tie some thing around his waist when the charge exploded. Could be static electricity from a plastic belt.

Also folks we keep harping on Modi as the target. In fact it was the entire BJP leadership:Rajnath Singh, Jaitley and another person on the dais along with Modi.

All were the targets.

Qui bono?

Would TSP benefit from such a decapitating strike?

RahulM, Yes India always hides behind laws to not do the right thing. Same arguments were advanced by the shameless babus (my own relatives) for why Rajiv Gandhi did not get the protection in Siriperumbudur. Thats an excuse for not doing the right thing. Currently Modi is facing a suicide bomber threat already carried out. Nothing prevents them from having SPG type security accorded to him.

Do the right thing and then worry if its within the law.

[CRamS]

Guys, the bigger question is this. What does one make of India where there was an assassination attempt or effort to cause mayhem, and the CM responsible, along with Cong, are not accountable, and in fact is back in full force today talking politics. I mean its as if nobody is accountable, and worse, there is no remorse. It is simply sickening.

[ramana]

Further can those leaders campaign in opposition states? They all become defacto no go zones.Thats what Nikamma and his DGP have done by gross dereliction of duty.

[Rahul M]

I am not convinced extending SPG security to someone beyond it's mandate is the right thing to do.
one, it would lead to a dilution of its mandate, two, all kind of nautanki walas like mayawati would want it and three, most importantly SPG is already saturated and does not have excess capacity to cater for another protectee.
capability like this can't be expanded on a day's notice and not without an amendment in its laws.

better option would be to create a similarly capable unit within NSG seeded by relevant experts transferred from SPG. that can be done quickly, without needing a change in laws and would be effective.

[Anantha]

One of the most troubling thing is the speed with which the incident is fading from the news. DDM is rapidly burying the news more likely on orders from above. In couple of days expect the DDM to behave as if nothing happened (dont mind the number of people killed at a minimum).

[Vikas]

Why so much fear of NaMo that even assassination attempts on him doesn't move the political class. Would they be safe if one of them is taken out like this. Don't they realize that they will be next target.

[Anantha]

^^ Regardless, why cant high level private security be arranged by BJP for its candidate.

[Anantha]

Why so much fear of NaMo that even assassination attempts on him doesn't move the political class. Would they be safe if one of them is taken out like this. Don't they realize that they will be next target.

If Modi wins, political class may expect a Cairo/Libya like situation in Dilli where a million people may swarm the Lutyens/ other important places and chase some of the crooks out of the country. I believe Baba Ramdev/Anna movements are precursors of what could come when anger spills over. No wonder, the Seculars will try everything to get rid of this man.

[Singha]

one bomb was 150feet from stage. and one bomb was said to be very powerful. it is not clear if this nearest bomb was the most powerful.

[Rahul M]

^^ Regardless, why cant high level private security be arranged by BJP for its candidate.

liaison with other govt forces would be a problem. that's assuming such pvt security is even available in India. no non-govt personnel can own an automatic gun for example.

[Philip]

Ramana is right.One forgets that there was a galaxy of BJP leaders on the stage.The consequences could've been truly catastrophic for the country who desperately require leaders of wroth. If alleged scamster Robert Vadra can get priviliged treatment at Indian airports,why on earth is Mr.Modi the chief Opposition leader today being denied adequate security? The meanness and hatred of the Congress for Modi & co. is spewing out of their Mouths like the vomit of a rabid dog.Past time to put the vermin to electoral sleep.

[CRamS]

One of the most troubling thing is the speed with which the incident is fading from the news. DDM is rapidly burying the news more likely on orders from above. In couple of days expect the DDM to behave as if nothing happened (dont mind the number of people killed at a minimum).

It is already history. Today's headlines were dominated by Nitish Kumar's histrionics against Modi, and who has a greater right, BJP or Cong, over Sardar Patel's legacy. There is a deep and intense hatred of Modi among the political and media elite.

[Muppalla]

If Modi wins, political class may expect a Cairo/Libya like situation in Dilli where a million people may swarm the Lutyens/ other important places and chase some of the crooks out of the country. I believe Baba Ramdev/Anna movements are precursors of what could come when anger spills over. No wonder, the Seculars will try everything to get rid of this man.

If Modi wins, these possibilities are always there. However, the balance in the form of President and armed forces will stop. Their only chance is to eliminate him. They did too early a botched op in Patna. Modi should now re-strategize his rallies and his campaign mechanism. Survival in very important.

[disha]

BJP should hire retired SPG and form its own private SPG. And since NaMo is a sitting CM, Guj state can also chip in some cost for its prized asset. I am sure Guj will be okay to spend some 2Cr a day for the duration of the election.

Coming to bomb blast:

1. Designing and operating a soosai belt is not easy. It is a one way street if you want a full on QA. Psychologically, bummer must be stressed and sweating profusely completing the circuit. On sub-continent, only group which had perfected the art of soosai bumming as a factory are LTTE (psychologically, physiologically, materially, MO, etc)., taliban is good - but not perfect. Taliban MO is more brute-force and large scale.

However the audacity of IM to make a sophisticated, directed bummer is truly audacious. It could be that the soosai bumbelt was assembled by IM for the first time and did not get time to "test" it appropriately.

OR

Some of the bummers got scared of the crowd or time pressures on that particular day or just by somebody shouting and knocking on the toilet door or the stench of pakhastaniyat. We do not know yet.

2. It was pointed out earlier, that a good chunk of BJP leadership was there. That itself is a juicy target. There will be lot of primary and secondary targets.

3. This was meticulously planned, the layout was studied, the positioning and planning and syncro of the bums, getting the recruiters and sharing into the plan.

And this is not an ISI job. The sutradhars are local. ISI itself is a red herring. Shifting blame to ISI is IMHO spreading FUD.

1. Lax security - even calling it a lax security is a joke, there were severe security lapses. Heck Patna airport gets better security.

2. Issue of bullet proof van/SUV. It was nakedly highlighted that Modi will *not* have a bulletproof SUV. That itself is a crucial information since the vehicle could be a potential target now. Who leaked that info and who gave it lot of air time. My senses was tingling then itself but was not paying heed.

3. Absence of police force.

4. Absence of top bureaucrats and police officials and importantly admin. head the CM NiKu

5. Indication to Media to start focusing on NaMo. This needs to be subtly coordinated.

6. Just two days prior - Dwivedi going to air with threats - this is the green signal. Dwivedi just like Niku could have been the fall guy. One does not have to criminally conspire, but their ineptness can be used criminally.

[Anantha]

If Modi wins, political class may expect a Cairo/Libya like situation in Dilli where a million people may swarm the Lutyens/ other important places and chase some of the crooks out of the country. I believe Baba Ramdev/Anna movements are precursors of what could come when anger spills over. No wonder, the Seculars will try everything to get rid of this man.

If Modi wins, these possibilities are always there. However, the balance in the form of President and armed forces will stop. Their only chance is to eliminate him. They did too early a botched op in Patna. Modi should now re-strategize his rallies and his campaign mechanism. Survival in very important.

If people take to streets do you expect the army to shoot its citizens... not in India

[Sushupti]

Indian Mujahideen wanted suicide attack on Modi but plans went wrong, claims arrested operative


http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/patn ... 20736.html

[Sushupti]

Ranchi slept on plotter alert
Key Bihar recruiter was in state capital, says IB


http://www.telegraphindia.com/1131030/j ... 509939.jsp

[Sushupti]

Miracle At Gandhi Maidan

http://www.mediacrooks.com/2013/10/mira ... aidan.html