Geopolitical thread

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 09 Dec 2009 23:18

US, Japan reportedly suspend talks on relocating base

The report offers additional evidence that the newly elected government of Japan is uncomfortable with the military footprint of the United States. Most of the 36,000 US forces in Japan are based on the southern island of Okinawa.

Hatoyama’s approval ratings dipped below 60 percent in a newspaper poll released this week, as many of those polled criticized the prime minister for indecision on the base issue.

Need to watch the public mood in Japan. Hatoyama’s Dilemma Some of the things Hatoyama promised pre-elections were:
1) Close the base
2) Focus more on domestic consumption than export-oriented economy.

So the Japanese public mood seems to be geared towards "swadeshi" onlee.

Why is Unkil not closing the base & pulling out totally ? Proximity to Panda?

Read more Here to get a background and public sentiment.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 09 Dec 2009 23:21

Swamy,

There is a *major* expansion of US facilities taking place on Guam. They are preparing for the worst when it comes to Okinawa.

Of course, Guam is a bit further from Taiwan than Okinawa.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 11 Dec 2009 03:11

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHnhFi2X9SY

Brian Flanagan participated in the first panel of the Hauenstein Center's Bush legacy conference in Washington, D.C. The panel explored the Bush administration's policies and procedures, and Flanagan spoke on "The State of the National Security State: Bush, Truman, and America's Ramparts in the 21st Century."

Brian Flanagan is associate director of the Hauenstein Center for Presidential Studies at Grand Valley State University. With Gleaves Whitney and staff, he has helped organize more than one-hundred public programs, including two national conferences covered by C-SPAN, one debate web cast live to more than 3,500 viewers in eighteen countries, and another watched on YouTube by more than 40 thousand people on six continents. He has developed the Center's presence online, with a traditional website that has attracted 10 million hits, and a "Hauenstein Center Everywhere" campaign that brought the Hauenstein Center to YouTube, Wikipedia, Blogger, Flickr, Facebook, and MySpace.

In 2008, Brian and a Hauenstein Center team were awarded a Mawby Fellowship to explore the connection between philanthropy and the American presidency. In 2007, he was appointed to the Michigan Abraham Lincoln Bicentennial Committee, a two-year effort charged with providing leadership and direction for Michigan's celebration of the 200th anniversary of Abraham Lincoln's birth. He also served as a Teaching and Learning Resources advisor for the National Endowment for the Humanities and was selected as a 2007 class member by Leadership Grand Rapids, a community leadership program by the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 11 Dec 2009 08:53

Diplomacy That Will Live in Infamy

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/06/opini ... adley.html

When Theodore Roosevelt was president, three decades before World War II, the world was focused on the bloody Russo-Japanese War, a contest for control of North Asia. President Roosevelt was no fan of the Russians: “No human beings, black, yellow or white, could be quite as untruthful, as insincere, as arrogant — in short, as untrustworthy in every way — as the Russians,” he wrote in August 1905, near the end of the Russo-Japanese War. The Japanese, on the other hand, were “a wonderful and civilized people,” Roosevelt wrote, “entitled to stand on an absolute equality with all the other peoples of the civilized world.”

Roosevelt knew that Japan coveted the Korean Peninsula as a springboard to its Asian expansion. Back in 1900, Roosevelt had written, “I should like to see Japan have Korea.” When, in February 1904, Japan broke off relations with Russia, President Roosevelt said publicly that he would “maintain the strictest neutrality,” but privately he wrote, “The sympathies of the United States are entirely on Japan’s side.”

In June 1905, Roosevelt made world headlines when — apparently on his own initiative — he invited the two nations to negotiate an end to their war. Roosevelt’s private letter to his son told another story: “I have of course concealed from everyone — literally everyone — the fact that I acted in the first place on Japan’s suggestion ... . Remember that you are to let no one know that in this matter of the peace negotiations I have acted at the request of Japan and that each step has been taken with Japan’s foreknowledge, and not merely with her approval but with her expressed desire.”

Years later, a Japanese emissary to Roosevelt paraphrased the president’s comments to him: “All the Asiatic nations are now faced with the urgent necessity of adjusting themselves to the present age. Japan should be their natural leader in that process, and their protector during the transition stage, much as the United States assumed the leadership of the American continent many years ago, and by means of the Monroe Doctrine, preserved the Latin American nations from European interference. The future policy of Japan towards Asiatic countries should be similar to that of the United States towards their neighbors on the American continent.”

In a secret presidential cable to Tokyo, in July 1905, Roosevelt approved the Japanese annexation of Korea and agreed to an “understanding or alliance” among Japan, the United States and Britain “as if the United States were under treaty obligations.” The “as if” was key: Congress was much less interested in North Asia than Roosevelt was, so he came to his agreement with Japan in secret, an unconstitutional act.

To signal his commitment to Tokyo, Roosevelt cut off relations with Korea, turned the American legation in Seoul over to the Japanese military and deleted the word “Korea” from the State Department’s Record of Foreign Relations and placed it under the heading of “Japan.”

Japan’s declaration of war, in December 1941, explained its position quite clearly: “It is a fact of history that the countries of East Asia for the past hundred years or more have been compelled to observe the status quo under the Anglo-American policy of imperialistic exploitation and to sacrifice themselves to the prosperity of the two nations. The Japanese government cannot tolerate the perpetuation of such a situation.”

In planning the attack on Pearl Harbor, Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto was specifically thinking of how, 37 years earlier, the Japanese had surprised the Russian Navy at Port Arthur in Manchuria and, as he wrote, “favorable opportunities were gained by opening the war with a sudden attack on the main enemy fleet.” At the time, the indignant Russians called it a violation of international law. But Theodore Roosevelt, confident that he could influence events in North Asia from afar, wrote to his son, “I was thoroughly well pleased with the Japanese victory, for Japan is playing our game.”

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 14 Dec 2009 06:58

This is why the Atlanticists awarded Roosevelt the Nobel Peace Prize for "ending the Russo-Japanese war" - because he hated the Russians. You'll see that everyone whom the Atlanticists admire and bestow awards upon are people who have been useful in attacking the Russians. That's all the Atlanticists mainly care about - fighting their ugly European blood-feuds.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 14 Dec 2009 08:44

Iraq War Inquiry Depicts Britain as Frustrated Sidekick to U.S. Juggernaut

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/14/world ... quiry.html

An insistent theme, in testimony from top generals, diplomats and intelligence officials, has been that as prime minister Mr. Blair, keen to build a close personal relationship with then-President George W. Bush, and overriding his advisers’ cautions, hastened Britain into a war that it could, and perhaps should, have avoided.

Witnesses have depicted Britain as little more than a frustrated sidekick to the American juggernaut, with only marginal traction in the planning and execution of the invasion of March 2003, or in the way that Mr. Bush, his top officials and American generals conducted the occupation that followed.

In effect, the witnesses have presented Britain as a disregarded voice of diplomatic and military prudence, unable to restrain zealous American officials caught up in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks.

Testimony at the inquiry has turned repeatedly to British frustrations as the Bush administration chafed at efforts to win United Nations backing for the Iraq invasion; to the “shambles” in the Pentagon’s lack of planning for the invasion’s aftermath; to the “touching faith” among American officials, as one Foreign Office official put it, that the invading forces would be greeted by Iraqis “grateful and dancing in the streets”; and to the assumption that British commanders say they met among American counterparts that Britain, for all its reservations, would join the invasion on America’s terms.

But the figure who has dominated the hearings, without yet appearing as a witness, has been Mr. Blair, who will give evidence sometime early in the new year. If the inquiry has had a focal point so far, it has been a one-on-one meeting between Mr. Blair and Mr. Bush at the president’s Texas ranch in April 2002. The British ambassador to Washington at the time, Sir Christopher Meyer, pointed in his testimony to that meeting as the moment when there might have been a convergence “signed in blood” on the plan to go to war to topple Saddam Hussein.

But there have been no disruptions inside the hearings, and even some light-hearted moments. Some have flowed from overhead monitors offering a running transcript of the hearings, and what they have betrayed of the stenographers’ struggles with unfamiliar military terms or Arab names. One controversial figure in Iraqi politics, Ahmed Chalabi, appeared on the monitors as “Alcohol Chalabi,” to subdued merriment.

But Sir John, 70, has promised that the inquiry, expected to report late in 2010 or in 2011, will be no whitewash.

“No one is on trial here,” he said as the inquiry opened. “We cannot determine guilt or innocence. Only a court can do that. But I make a commitment that once we get to our final report, we will not shy away from making criticisms where they are warranted.”

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 19 Dec 2009 14:54

India Remembered

Europeans often speak of an emerging “G-3,” implying an international system dominated by the United States, China, and the European Union. But this ambition, however legitimate, looks more presumptuous and unrealistic every day, particularly given the choices that Europe just made in naming its new “President” – Belgium’s Prime Minister Herman van Rompuy – and “Foreign Minister” – the never been elected to anything Lady Catherine Ashton from Britain. How can Europe pretend to stand for an ambitious message when it picks such low-profile – indeed, practically anonymous – messengers to deliver it? Given this demonstration of Europe’s Lilliputian instincts, if a G-3 ever becomes a reality, the only serious contender nowadays to join the US and China is India.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 20 Dec 2009 14:33

Moscow's initiative to forge trade bloc

Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus signed documents to establish a customs union during a summit meeting of the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC), held November 27 in the Belarussian capital Minsk. Under the agreements, a unified Customs Code and common customs tariffs will go into effect on July 1, 2010.

The customs union will unite three states with combined GDP of $2 trillion, and $900 billion in mutual trade turnover, Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev said. The group could emerge as a major oil and grain exporter, he predicted. Initial projections show the customs union can enhance Russian trade turnover by up to $400 billion, while Kazakhstan and Belarus could each gain upwards of $16 billion in additional trade revenue, according to Nazarbayev.

EU turns away from Ukraine

EU officials are casting a wary eye at Ukraine as it prepares for watershed presidential elections in January that look likely to spark a lurch back towards the Russian sphere five years after the former Soviet republic was supposedly set free by the "Orange Revolution". The cautious approach in Brussels is again raising questions about the EU's apparent lack of a strategic vision – and political courage – in its dealing with its eastern neighbours.

Given the much reduced appetite for further EU enlargement, it seems certain that the high watermark of EU-Ukraine ties has already passed. It's no consolation for Yushchenko that much the same applies to Georgia, Belarus and Turkey. And for many in Europe who hoped for better, braver things along the EU's post-Soviet eastern frontier, it's galling to conclude that, in a sense, Putin has won.

NATO and Russia are getting closer -- and leaving Ukraine out.

Now, the CSTO's expansion to the west seems far more likely, and at the same time, Russia's relations with NATO are flourishing. Coincidence? Probably not. At NATO's Bucharest summit in April of last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to let NATO ship supplies to troops in Afghanistan across Russian territory. It was a pathway the United States desperately needed, as the southern supply corridor through Pakistan was coming under heavy attack. It was also widely seen as a thank-you gift. The day before, NATO had refused to put Ukraine and Georgia on the accelerated Membership Action Plan (MAP), which would have greatly eased their accessions. This allowed Russia to breathe easy about the alliance's eastward growth.

Its fascinating to observe the strategic moves both sides are playing in the former Soviet states.Just 5 years ago it seemed as if Moscow was in for a period in the wilderness as the West celebrated the success of the Orange Revolution.Now,Yanukovich appears to be the frontrunner in the Presidential race & Tymoshenko not averse to be seen as pro-Russian.
Both Saakashvili & Yushchenko would be wondering what's the next step for them.Lets see how long Saakashvili lasts.

Both countries have probably become the casualties in a much bigger battle.They will be used time and again by the West to annoy Russia & get some concessions in other matters.As Russia tries to maintain its influence in Central Asia,lets hope it isn't unaware of China's gradual rise.The proactive approach displayed in foreign affairs should be seen in diversifying the economy.Dependence on Gazprom to achieve geopolitical objectives is not a good long term strategy.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 20 Dec 2009 20:15

AjitK wrote:Its fascinating to observe the strategic moves both sides are playing in the former Soviet states.Just 5 years ago it seemed as if Moscow was in for a period in the wilderness as the West celebrated the success of the Orange Revolution.Now,Yanukovich appears to be the frontrunner in the Presidential race & Tymoshenko not averse to be seen as pro-Russian.
Both Saakashvili & Yushchenko would be wondering what's the next step for them.Lets see how long Saakashvili lasts.

Why do you think that nasty monster Stalin embraced communism and turned into a megalomaniac? It's because he was from a tiny little Mouse-that-Roared country which was tired of being used and abused. It's always people like that who turn towards broader revolutionary ideologies to garner support for their otherwise miserable existences. All minorities and tiny embattled ethnic groups like to run towards communism and socialism to shore up their own fragile positions, because otherwise they don't have the natural demographic size to defend themselves against the larger groups.

Both countries have probably become the casualties in a much bigger battle.They will be used time and again by the West to annoy Russia & get some concessions in other matters.As Russia tries to maintain its influence in Central Asia,lets hope it isn't unaware of China's gradual rise.The proactive approach displayed in foreign affairs should be seen in diversifying the economy.Dependence on Gazprom to achieve geopolitical objectives is not a good long term strategy.

China is already gaining direct access to Turkmenistan's oil & gas, at the expense of Russian control over that region. The Atlanticists are happily awaiting the emergence of such rivalry, which they hope to exploit to the fullest against their traditional nemesis Russia.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 21 Dec 2009 20:59

Sanjay M wrote:China is already gaining direct access to Turkmenistan's oil & gas, at the expense of Russian control over that region. The Atlanticists are happily awaiting the emergence of such rivalry, which they hope to exploit to the fullest against their traditional nemesis Russia.

Europe is not behind in that race.I think there's an agreement with Turkmenistan to supply gas through the Nabucco.Regardless of Russia's moves to counter the Nabucco,the EU looks set to diversify its sources,with countries like Bulgaria,Greece being heavily dependent on Russian gas.Sometimes I get the feeling that Russia has a small window of opportunity to effectively use its petrodollars.

---------------

Turkey offers an example for policymakers - M.K. Bhadrakumar

Is Turkey under Mr. Erdogan moving away from the West? He recently quoted the 13th century Sufi mystic and poet Mevlana Jelaluddin Rumi: “In my religion one end of the compass needle is fixed, but with the other end of the needle, I roam the 72 nations.” He elaborated: “Turkey is exactly in this position. Our doors are wide open. Turkey cannot lose the West while looking towards the East; cannot lose the East while looking towards the West; cannot lose the South while looking towards the North; cannot lose the North while looking towards the South. Turkey has the power to take a 360-degree look at the entire world.” Mr. Erodgan’s “Nehruvism” comes alive with startling freshness.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 21 Dec 2009 22:10

1. Why is China important to Japan.
1.1 Economically - China is Japan's biggest trade partner.
1.2 Politically - Japan is pursuing East Asia Community idea, China becomes important for Japan to coexist under conditions of mutual prosperity. Bilateral relations become crucial.
Source: Charting future ties with China

2. Conditions in Japan
2.1 Shrinking population.
2.2 Collapse of Agriculture.
2.3 Few prospects for young adults
2.4 Erosion of Middle Class.
2.5 DPJ seems to desire to create a new identity of Japan in 21st century.
2.6 People want change now.

3. Year of Political transformations.
3.1 Generational: New leaders of DPJ have very little memory of WWII.
3.2 Shifting policies: DPJ, under Hatoyama, has suggested shift in domestic and external policies affecting USA and rest of Asia.
3.3. Conditions are such that Japan could become a 2-party system: LDP and DPJ.
3.4 DPJ proposes to overcome the 'false choice' between favoring USA and favoring Asia.
3.5 DPJ claims to be an alternative to LDP.

4. Regional aspirations:
4.1. DPJ visions to build an institutional architecture for East Asia.
4.2. Interested in tightening reltions with S.Korea.
4.3. Does not want N.Korea to gain nuclear weapons.
4.4. Is ready to be transparent about country's past imperialism.
4.5. Arguments for regional currency union posed.

Source: Year of Political transformations

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 22 Dec 2009 07:25

xpost
Gordon Brown calls for new group to police global environment issues

The Prime Minister will say: “Never again should we face the deadlock that threatened to pull down those talks. Never again should we let a global deal to move towards a greener future be held to ransom by only a handful of countries. One of the frustrations for me was the lack of a global body with the sole responsibility for environmental stewardship.

Despite being the first world leader to join the summit, Mr Brown was excluded from the key meeting where the compromise was decided.

The UN’s consensual method of negotiation, which requires all 192 countries to reach agreement, needs to be reformed to ensure that the will of the majority prevails, he feels.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 22 Dec 2009 23:03

Look at how Japan works.
Japanese PM says concerned by mistrust between Iran and West.

“He said Japan is prepared to play a role, if both parties solve the mistrust and step toward peace,” Hatoyama’s office said, according to AFP.

Well so what is the big deal you ask? Nothing, it is just that Okada also whispers sweet things to Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Saeed Jalili who is on an official tour of Japan.

The main policy of Japan’s new government is to strengthen ties with Iran, Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada announced on Monday.

Katsuya made the remarks in a meeting with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Saeed Jalili who is on an official tour of Japan.

Katsuya stressed the importance of expanding relations with Iran in all areas.

Elsewhere in his remarks, he said Iran should play a more active role in efforts to help stabilize Southwest Asia. He stated that Tehran and Tokyo ought to further increase cooperation to help reconstruct Afghanistan.

Katsuya also invited Jalili to visit Japan’s nuclear plants.

{linky}

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 23 Dec 2009 08:33

Sanjay M wrote:Why do you think that nasty monster Stalin embraced communism and turned into a megalomaniac? It's because he was from a tiny little Mouse-that-Roared country which was tired of being used and abused. It's always people like that who turn towards broader revolutionary ideologies to garner support for their otherwise miserable existences. All minorities and tiny embattled ethnic groups like to run towards communism and socialism to shore up their own fragile positions, because otherwise they don't have the natural demographic size to defend themselves against the larger groups.

Stalin's model was Ivan the Terrible. Most of his methods and tools had already been institutionalised in Lenin's times. His degree of paranoia and vendetta are not uncommon for the Caucasus - that is the regional culture.

In a previous era he would have been a brigand and thug for hire. Lenin chose him to conduct the most sensitive form of fundraising the Bolsheviks depended on, handled by a special section - bank robbery and extortion.

The Caucasus had become a very cosmopolitan and cash soaked place in the 1880s onwards, with people from throughout Russia, Europe and the Americas there because of the oil - at the time it was the biggest producer in the world. It was far more than some isolated and forgotten corner of the Russian Empire. It was like the Hejaz in the 1970s.

Stalin was very good at what he did, and he rose up the party structure because he was more than a thug. He understood bureaucracy, factional politics and most of all human nature infinitely better than any of the nerdy and idealistic Jewish boys like Trotsky.

In the Shtetl the worst thing that could happen to you when you got in to a feud with your own people was that you might get beaten up and humiliated once, or your business was sabotaged, and your families would spit when they passed each other. You won by arguing in front of everyone, and making better points than the other party. In the Caucasus a feud could easily mean a slit throat. You won by biding your time, isolating your enemy, and then striking furiously and mercilessly. That's the difference between how Stalin and Trotsky competed for power. They played for different stakes, and they used very different methods.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Dec 2009 14:35

Clinton was nearly assassinated by AlQ!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... inton.html

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Dec 2009 17:44

NYT

Ford Reaches Deal to Sell Volvo to Chinese Automaker

Published: December 23, 2009

PARIS — Ford Motor and Zhejiang Geely Holding Group said Wednesday that they had settled “all substantive commercial terms” on a sale of Volvo, clearing the way for the Chinese automaker to purchase the Swedish business early next year.

The U.S. automaker said that while final documentation, financing and government approvals remain to be completed, “Ford and Geely anticipate that a definitive sale agreement will be signed in the first quarter of 2010, with closing of the sale likely to occur in the second quarter 2010, subject to appropriate regulatory approvals.”

The companies did not disclose a price. John Gardiner, a Ford spokesman in London, declined to comment on the financial terms, saying “that kind of detail will come when we have a definitive agreement.”

Ford paid $6 billion in 1999 to buy Volvo; unconfirmed reports have said that Zhejiang Geely could pay $2 billion for the unit in the currently depressed market for automakers.

The joint announcement with Ford could ease the Chinese company’s efforts to obtain the necessary approvals in Beijing, which must give the green light for big overseas investments to go forward, Mr. Gardiner said.

Ford announced in October that it had selected Geely as the preferred bidder for Volvo over other contenders, and the announcement Wednesday appeared to signal that the American company was committed to finalizing a deal.

Geely, based in Hangzhou, said in a statement that it “expects to sign a definitive stock purchase agreement with Ford in the first quarter of 2010.”

Geely is the largest private automaker in China. A Volvo deal would mark one of the biggest moves yet by a Chinese car company in Europe or the United States. Beijing Automotive Industry Holding said last week it would buy carmaking technology for Saab cars from General Motors.

A sale “would ensure Volvo has the resources, including the capital investment, necessary to further strengthen the business and build its global franchise,” Ford said, while enabling the Detroit company to implement its own strategy. Ford is seeking to raise money as it refocuses on its North American and European operations.

Ford said it would continue to cooperate with Volvo in several areas, but it did not intend to retain a stake in the Swedish company.

Geely has sought to assuage anxiety about the deal in Sweden, saying it intends to maintain Volvo much as it is, including “an independent management” at its Gothenburg headquarters.

“Geely is committed to work with all stakeholders to complete the transaction in the best interest of all parties,” Li Shufu, Geely’s chairman, said in a statement. The company said it has held “constructive meetings” in recent weeks with Volvo management, labor representatives and government officials in Sweden and Belgium.

Assuming the deal goes through, “Volvo will retain its leadership in safety and environmental technologies, and will be uniquely positioned as a world-leading premium brand to exploit opportunities in the fast-growing China market,” Geely said.

General Motors, meanwhile, is still working to dispose of its own Swedish carmaker. G.M. said last week that it would shut down Saab, which is based in Trollhattan, after negotiations to sell the company to Spyker Cars, a tiny Dutch automaker, fell through.

Although G.M. has already begun the process of closing the company down, Spyker came back this week with a revised offer, and G.M. said it was studying the Spyker offer as well as other potential bids. While negotiations are continuing, analysts say Spyker’s bid appears to be a long shot.

Ford was the only Detroit automaker to avoid bankruptcy this year, as G.M. and Chrysler were bailed out by taxpayers, with the latter ending up under the wing of Fiat.

Ford is selling Volvo as part of its “Ford One” strategy, which aims at refocusing the company on what it has identified as its “core” global operations.

It sold Aston Martin to a British-Kuwaiti consortium in 2007, and sold Land Rover and Jaguar to the Indian automaker Tata Motors in 2008.

Ford last year also reduced its stake in Mazda Motor, the Japanese carmaker, to 13 percent from 33.4 percent.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 23 Dec 2009 21:41

Johann wrote:Stalin's model was Ivan the Terrible. Most of his methods and tools had already been institutionalised in Lenin's times. His degree of paranoia and vendetta are not uncommon for the Caucasus - that is the regional culture.

In a previous era he would have been a brigand and thug for hire. Lenin chose him to conduct the most sensitive form of fundraising the Bolsheviks depended on, handled by a special section - bank robbery and extortion.

The Caucasus had become a very cosmopolitan and cash soaked place in the 1880s onwards, with people from throughout Russia, Europe and the Americas there because of the oil - at the time it was the biggest producer in the world. It was far more than some isolated and forgotten corner of the Russian Empire. It was like the Hejaz in the 1970s.

Stalin was very good at what he did, and he rose up the party structure because he was more than a thug. He understood bureaucracy, factional politics and most of all human nature infinitely better than any of the nerdy and idealistic Jewish boys like Trotsky.

In the Shtetl the worst thing that could happen to you when you got in to a feud with your own people was that you might get beaten up and humiliated once, or your business was sabotaged, and your families would spit when they passed each other. You won by arguing in front of everyone, and making better points than the other party. In the Caucasus a feud could easily mean a slit throat. You won by biding your time, isolating your enemy, and then striking furiously and mercilessly. That's the difference between how Stalin and Trotsky competed for power. They played for different stakes, and they used very different methods.

I couldn't disagree more. Johann, I find you to be the typical fast-talking European apologist, who tries his utmost to whitewash his own people while vilifying others in order to deflect blame onto them and justify his own Euro-centric worldview. Your comments remind me of Kissinger crookedly claiming that India sees itself as the inheritor of British imperial interests in the region, and how it wants to continue the same imperial conquest under its own banner.

Smaller, more fragile ethnic groups will always seek to contrive a wider coalition of support, whether under some grand revolutionary ideological front like Communism, or through a coalition of narrow special interests like the US Democratic Party (now rapidly degenerating into revolutionary ideological fervor and antics)

This type of phenomenon is seen all over the world, whether in India or in the US.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 24 Dec 2009 02:56

I find you to be the typical fast-talking European apologist, who tries his utmost to whitewash his own people while vilifying others in order to deflect blame onto them and justify his own Euro-centric worldview. Your comments remind me of Kissinger crookedly claiming that India sees itself as the inheritor of British imperial interests in the region, and how it wants to continue the same imperial conquest under its own banner.

Dear Sanjay, if this isnt an-off topic, ad-hominem flamebait, I dont know what is.

Moreover, I cant make any sense of what you're saying here, and I'm not going to bother trying to. The assumptions and the logic are far too convoluted and unpleasantly false to be worth un-entangling and dealing with individually.

All I can suggest is that you learn to accept differences of opinion as natural and inevitable without taking it quite so personally. Otherwise the forum may lose someone with interesting things to say.

I couldn't disagree more...

Smaller, more fragile ethnic groups will always seek to contrive a wider coalition of support, whether under some grand revolutionary ideological front like Communism, or through a coalition of narrow special interests like the US Democratic Party (now rapidly degenerating into revolutionary ideological fervor and antics)

This type of phenomenon is seen all over the world, whether in India or in the US.

That's fine as a general rule of thumb. However its a bit lazy to assume a rule of thumb without looking at the specifics.

Its an argument thats been made about *initial* Russian Jewish support for Marxist and revolutionary movements, and there's a lot of truth in it, although Jewish support fell as the USSR grew more anti-Semitic following the establishment of Israel.

However, there is no evidence I've seen that the Caucasus showed greater enthusiasm for the Bolshevik party than the Slavic heartland.

In the aftermath of the fall of the Romanov dynasty the Caucasus (specifically Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan), like the Baltics scrambled to form non-communist independent republics.

Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan in fact first formed the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic, which broke in to its constituent bits when Georgia seceded.

Unlike the Baltics they were roiled by nasty ethnic conflicts, especially Azeris vs. Armenians. Since 1453 the traditional ally of Orthodox Christian communities in conflict with Muslim communities has always been Moscow, whether its ruled by Tsars, Commisars or Presidents.

In fact the Georgian republic ended up being taken over by the Menesheviks, the sworn enemies of the Bolsheviks.

When the USSR began to unravel in 1989, the Caucasian republics, along with the Baltics were the first to break from the Union, again, just like 1918. Again, like the 1918-1922 period this was accompanied by all sorts of ethnic struggles.

You should talk to Soviet troops (mostly from the airborne divisions/VDV and the Interior Ministry/MVD) who had the unenviable task of peacekeeping in that period, and their shock at the absolute levels of hatred they faced as 'outsiders' when they tried to be even-handed, and the even worse levels of violence and hatred the different ethnicities reserved for each other.

The people in the Caucasus want the best of all worlds - friends who suport them in their various little feuds, while leaving them free to do what they like.

Stalin in fact crafted the Bolshevik/CPSU 'nationalities policy' of the USSR precisely in order to manage the ethnic complexity and rivalries he had experienced in the Caucasus.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 24 Dec 2009 04:14

Don't look to Beijing for global leadership

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 26 Dec 2009 17:42

World's Friendliest Countries
These nations are the most hospitable to expatriates, according to a new report
By Rebecca Ruiz

Bahrain
The Middle East has long had a reputation for being one of the world's perennial trouble spots. But for expatriates, the tiny Persian Gulf county Bahrain ranks as one of the most welcoming places to work.

See the full list of the World's Friendliest Countries

That's the surprising result of a new survey of 3,100 expatriates conducted by HSBC Bank. Bahrain ranked first in one key measure of how easy it is for expatriates to set up a new life for their families. It received high marks from expats who like the country's easy access to modern health care, decent and affordable housing, and network of social groups that expatriates can join.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/30/worlds ... chart.html

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Dec 2009 22:30

To raise its presence in the international arena, Japan may also explore ways to further contribute to global security, such as through active participation in U.N. peacekeeping missions

{Source
Now let us consider its African policy: {Sourcy}
1. The first principle is to provide assistance for development and growth of Africa.
2. The second principle is to contribute to peace and stability of Africa.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 27 Dec 2009 03:55

BBC:

Turkish Soldiers Arrested in Plot to Assassinate Deputy PM

I think that the Turkish generals are on the wrong side of history. Their country is historically Islamic, and they cannot keep Islam at bay forever. Turkey will re-emerge as a potent Islamic power on Europe's doorstep, and as a force for change in the Middle East.

I think we Indians should welcome such a development, since it will derail the Atlanticist love affair with militant Islamism which has brought so much pain to SouthAsia.

The state of Israel will also end up an unfortunate casualty of this, as they have mortgaged their strategic future by gambling upon an ill-fated alliance with Turkey.

But the fact is that the Turks have everything to gain by going Islamic. They're certainly not getting much out of their relationship with Europe right now, nor that much with the Middle East.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Dec 2009 06:51

Foreign Affairs worries about "Nuclear Disorder

LINK

....In 2004, the secretary-general of the UN created a panel to review future threats to international peace and security. It identified nuclear Armageddon as the prime threat, warning, "We are approaching a point at which the erosion of the nonproliferation regime could become irreversible and result in a cascade of proliferation." Developments since 2004 have only magnified the risks of an irreversible cascade......

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 28 Dec 2009 21:23

1. Japanese PM Hatoyama visits India. Focus:
1.1 Economy
1.2 Defense Security
1.3 Civilian nuclear energy projects.
1.4 Thawing India-Japan relationship
1.5 Boosting trade
2 Japan is also working with Russia to seek progress in territorial row. Okada is visiting Russia.

Hatoyama has a history of personal ties with Russia. His grandfather Ichiro Hatoyama was the first Japanese prime minister to visit the Soviet Union and signed a joint declaration restoring diplomatic relations.

The new prime minister's son also teaches at Moscow State University.

{Sourcy} Hmmm...ho...hmmm.

I like the way these guys work. The trips to India and Russia is to counter impressions that Japan has become China centric {IMVHO which is true}
{sourcy}

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 29 Dec 2009 22:20

Meet the Siberian Liberation Army-Foreign Policy
Part 1 of a 5-part series by Joshua Kucera on Russia's Far East.

Contrary to Siberia's reputation, most of the cities I visited were pleasant -- Irkutsk, in particular, has gracious architecture and a bookish college-town feel. Siberians boast that they tend to be smarter and better-looking than their compatriots, because so much of Russia's elite was shipped out here when Siberia was used as a penal colony. But life here has always been difficult; it's remote and, in the winter, bitterly cold. The Soviets encouraged Russians to settle here, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, people started heading west: The population of Russia east of Irkutsk decreased from 8 million to 6 million between 1998 and 2002 (the date of the last census). What would this mass exodus mean for Russia? Perhaps Russia's greatest claim to being a great power is its immense size, and a shrinking population in its farthest reaches could call its claim on Siberia -- and by extension its authority on the world stage -- into question. I was traveling through this region, heading east from Irkutsk, to see how Russia is holding on to its Far East.

What's more, Siberians have unique "national characteristics. We are very skeptical, don't trust anyone, we're difficult to negotiate with, and we do things the way we want them to be done. We're individualists." While ethnic Russians everywhere are Orthodox Christian, in Siberia they have a syncretic bent, incorporating some elements of the Buddhist and shamanistic traditions of the indigenous peoples of Siberia. (The green-and-white OAS logo nods to that ecumenism, incorporating a cross as well as a circular form that refers to Buddhist chakras.)

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 29 Dec 2009 23:42

U.S. concerned about new Japanese premier Hatoyama-WaPo

But some U.S. and Asian officials increasingly worry that Hatoyama and others in his party may be considering a significant policy shift -- away from the United States and toward a more independent foreign policy.
They point to recent events as a possible warnings: Hatoyama's call for an East Asian Community with China and South Korea, excluding the United States; the unusually warm welcome given to Xi Junping, China's vice president, on his trip to Japan this month, which included an audience with the emperor; and the friendly reception given to Saeed Jalili, the Iranian national security council secretary, during his visit to Japan last week.

U.S. allies in Singapore, Australia, South Korea and the Philippines -- and Vietnamese officials as well -- have all viewed the tussle between Washington and Tokyo with alarm, according to several senior Asian diplomats.

The reason, one diplomat said, is that the U.S.-Japan relationship is not simply an alliance that obligates the United States to defend Japan, but the foundation of a broader U.S. security commitment to all of Asia. As China rises, none of the countries in Asia wants the U.S. position weakened by problems with Japan.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 30 Dec 2009 02:49

As Asia’s first modern economic success story, Japan has always inspired other Asian states. Now, with the emergence of new economic tigers and the ascent of China and India, Asia is collectively bouncing back from nearly two centuries of historical decline.

The most far-reaching but least-noticed development in Asia in the new century has been Japan’s political resurgence — a trend set in motion by Mr. Koizumi and expected to be accelerated by Mr. Hatoyama’s efforts to realign the relationship with the U.S. With Japanese pride and assertiveness rising, the nationalist impulse has become conspicuous at a time when China is headed to overtake Japan as the world’s second largest economy by the end of next year.

Long used to practising passive, cheque-book diplomacy, Tokyo now seems intent on influencing Asia’s power balance. A series of subtle moves has signalled Japan’s aim to break out of its post-war pacifist cocoon. One sign is the emphasis on defence modernisation. Japan’s navy, except in the nuclear sphere, is already the most sophisticated and powerful in Asia. China’s rise has prompted Japan to strengthen its military alliance with the U.S. But in the long run, Japan is likely to move to a more independent security posture.

Source: http://beta.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a ... epage=true

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 30 Dec 2009 06:00

On the topic of the UK/US engaging in a religious war in the ME

Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah Threatens: Lebanon's Christians Must Learn from Their Failed Bets on the U.S. and Israel – And from the Situation of Iraq's Christians

http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/ ... um=twitter

Masaru · Post by **Masaru** » 30 Dec 2009 12:14

Manmohan signals return to Vajpayee line on CTBT
Excerpts

While reiterating India’s commitment to its unilateral and voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told his visiting Japanese counterpart that any Indian accession to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty would have to await American and Chinese ratification.

The Prime Minister’s remarks signal a subtle return to the CTBT line adopted by the erstwhile Vajpayee government, which declared soon after the 1998 nuclear tests that India “would not stand in the way” of the treaty entering into force.

Dr. Singh told Yukio Hatoyama during their discussions on Tuesday morning that there was as yet no national consensus on India acceding to the CTBT. But if the U.S. and China were to complete their ratification process, this would likely generate momentum within the country in favour of accession, senior officials told The Hindu.

The Prime Minister’s latest message to Japan is significant because the UPA government has until now avoided directly or indirectly endorsing the Vajpayee line. Indeed, Dr. Singh and other senior officials had linked India’s refusal to sign the CTBT to the fact that the treaty does not promote the cause of disarmament.

In a meeting with Indian Foreign Service probationers in June 2008 during the height of the domestic political controversy over the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, the Prime Minister had said India would not sign the CTBT “if … it came into being.”

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 31 Dec 2009 22:13

India and the Central Asian dawn - M.K. Bhadrakumar

Three aspects to the emergent Central Asian security are of interest to India. One, China is venturing out as a provider of regional security and stability — supplementing Russia’s traditional role. The opening of the 1,833-km gas pipeline on December 14 connecting the energy fields in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to Xinjiang with an annual capacity of 40 billion cubic metres resets not only China but also the world community’s terms of engagement with the region. The pipeline becomes part of China’s 7,000-km long East-West trunk route that feeds its booming centres of production on the eastern seaboard and will provide half of China’s present gas consumption.

Two, the West would have ideally liked a clash of interests between China and Russia in Central Asia. But the emerging paradigm is instead pointing in the direction of a convergence of mutual interests.

China has remarkably transformed in the past quarter century. All indications are that it has no inclination to fish in the troubled India-Pakistan waters.

He points to the convergence of mutual interests of China & Russia.We will have to see how long this partnership lasts.In some quarters,China's "supplementary role" in Central Asia will be perceived as an attempt to supplant Russian influence.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 31 Dec 2009 23:43

Don't Call Them Twin Cities
Part 2 of a 5-part series by Joshua Kucera on Russia's Far East.

Among Russians in Blagoveshchensk, a two-day train ride east of Irkutsk, the sight of Heihe across the water is a source of both admiration and defensiveness. During my time here I was told over and over that although Heihe looks impressive from a distance, up close the city can be dirty and chaotic. Others mentioned that that the central government in Beijing lavishes extra attention on Heihe -- other cities of its size don't have those bright lights -- because it's on the border. Russians have seen this sort of thing before: "It's a Potemkin village," said Mikhail Kukharenko, the Russian head of the Chinese-government-run Confucius Institute in Blagoveshchensk.

While Blagoveshchensk is relatively prosperous, at least by the standards of Russian cities of its size, Heihe has positively boomed. It was just a village in 1989, and now it has 200,000 people, about the same as Blagoveshchensk. And in contrast to Heihe's glitzy, welcoming facade, Blagoveshchensk's barely lighted waterfront promenade features a Soviet-era World War II memorial that consists of a gunship with its barrels aimed across the river, toward China.

“China is the destiny of Siberia.”
Part 3 of a 5-part series by Joshua Kucera on Russia's Far East.

What is remarkable here, though, is the enthusiasm that Russian people-in contrast to the Russian government-display about China. While some poor Chinese citizens come to Russia for work, educated, middle-class Russians are increasingly going in the other direction. Among the group of young, English-speaking Russians I fell in with in Blagoveshchensk, nearly all of them worked in some capacity with China. Many of them had lived there. One, Sergey, was home from his job in Shanghai, and he raved about how much friendlier, more open, and optimistic Chinese people were compared with Russians.

One feature of the Russian-Chinese relationship seemed especially telling: Cross-border marriages are overwhelmingly between Chinese men and Russian women. Much of this has to do with demographics-Russia has a surplus of women, while China has too many men. But as one Russian woman told me, "Chinese men are kinder and more attentive to their wives. And they usually have more money."

"We're not afraid, but we're wary. We just don't understand what they're going to do. It's a system that could rise up at any moment and attack us," Kosikhina said. "We have a saying here: 'Pessimists study Chinese.'"

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 01 Jan 2010 01:17

Recruited by MI5 the names Mussolini
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oc ... -mi5-italy

Archived documents have revealed that Mussolini got his start in politics in 1917 with the help of a £100 weekly wage from MI5.

For the British intelligence agency, it must have seemed like a good investment. Mussolini, then a 34-year-old journalist, was not just willing to ensure Italy continued to fight alongside the allies in the first world war by publishing propaganda in his paper. He was also willing to send in the boys to "persuade'' peace protesters to stay at home.

Mussolini's payments were authorised by Sir Samuel Hoare, an MP and MI5's man in Rome, who ran a staff of 100 British intelligence officers in Italy at the time.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 01 Jan 2010 12:17

Just one word Wow!!!! Not for the news the title conveys, but what is in store for India and the World
Source: India to overtake China in 2020

Okay first I thought of pulling out points, but the entire thing is too juicy.

In the past decades, India has been world number one in starvation deaths, foreign aid and bribery. In the 2000s, it was transformed from a chronic under-performer to a potential superpower. Here are eight predictions of what it will look like in 2020: {1}India will overtake China as the fastest-growing economy in the world. China will start ageing and suffering from a declining workforce, and will be forced to revalue its currency. So its growth will decelerate, just as Japan decelerated in the 1990s after looking unstoppable in the 1980s. Having become the world’s second-biggest economy, China’s export-oriented model will erode sharply — the world will no longer be able to absorb its exports at the earlier pace. Meanwhile, India will gain demographically with a growing workforce that is more literate than ever before. The poorer Indian states will start catching up with the richer ones. This will take India’s GDP growth to 10% by 2020, while China’s growth will dip to 7-8%.

{2}India will become the largest English-speaking nation in the world, overtaking the US. So, the global publishing industry will shift in a big way to India. Rupert Murdoch’s heirs will sell his collapsing media empire to Indian buyers. The New York Times will become a subsidiary of an Indian publishing giant.{ }

In the 2000s, India finally gained entry into the nuclear club, and sanctions against it were lifted. {3}By 2020, Indian companies will be major exporters of nuclear equipment, a vital link in the global supply chain. So, India will be in a position to impose nuclear sanctions on others. { }

{4}India, along with the US and Canada, will develop new technology to extract natural gas from gas hydrates — a solidified form of gas lying on ocean floors. India has the largest gas hydrate deposits in the world, and so will become the biggest global producer. This will enable India to substitute gas for coal in power generation, hugely reducing carbon emissions and making Jairam Ramesh look saintly.

{5}India will also discover enormous deposits of shale gas in its vast shale formations running through the Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan and Gujarat. New technology has made the extraction of shale gas economic, so India will become a major gas producer and exporter. Meanwhile, Iran’s mullahs will be overthrown, and a new democratic regime will usher in rapid economic growth that creates a shortage of gas in Iran by 2020. So, the Iran-India pipeline will be recast, but in reverse form: India will now export gas to Iran.

{6}More and more regions of India will demand separate statehood. By 2020, India will have 50 states instead of the current 28. The new states will not exactly be small. With 50 states and a population of almost 1.5 billion, India will average 30 million people per state, far higher than the current US average of 6 million per state.

{7}China, alarmed at India’s rise, will raise tensions along the Himalayan border. China will threaten to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra from Tibet to water-scarce northern China. India will threaten to bomb any such project. { } The issue will go to the Security Council.

{8}Islamic fundamentalists will take over in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US will withdraw from the region, leaving India to bear the brunt of consequences. Terrorism will rise in India, but the economy will still keep growing. How so? Well, 3000 people die every year falling off Mumbai’s suburban trains, and that does not stop Mumbai’s growth. Terrorism will bruise India, but not halt its growth.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 03 Jan 2010 19:27

Brazil Launches Into Space

latimes.com — Brazil's planned reentry into the satellite business is more than an effort to join an exclusive club and become a global player. It's part of a far-reaching defense plan to ward off potential plunderers of its immense natural resources.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 05 Jan 2010 13:55

The West Is Choked by Fear

Aaj ka must read, from Der Spiegel. The times they are a changin', indeed.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 05 Jan 2010 17:04

Has Obama administration been too tough on Japan ? - Edit in Washington Post

JAPAN'S VENTURE into two-party democracy has not looked pretty so far -- especially for those watching from Washington. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has pursued an erratic course in both domestic and foreign policy . . .

After the prime minister broke his own deadline just before Christmas and announced that he would postpone the matter {of relocating the American base} for another few months, the Japanese ambassador to Washington was summoned for an unusual démarche by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

. . . Mr. Hatoyama so far appears committed to the alliance.

So the Obama administration would be wise to avoid harsh rhetoric and give the prime minister some space.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 05 Jan 2010 21:46

Turkmenistan: Western firms shut out from development deals

Experts say the choice of Asian and Arabian firms to develop South Yolotan production is not necessarily an indicator of a lack of interest on Ashgabat’s part to ramp up natural gas exports to Europe. Igor Ivakhnenko, the Caspian editor for the RusEnergy newsletter, characterized the December 30 announcement as an "important event" for Turkmen energy relations with the European Union and United States. At the same time, Turkmen leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov may be trying to mask his intentions so as not to put Russia on edge, and thus possibly prompt Kremlin meddling, Ivakhnenko indicated.

The development deals, Ivakhnenko said, show "that the Turkmenistan continues to focus on direct gas supplies to Europe. In addition, it [Ashgabat] intends to produce gas through eastern companies to sell the West."

Turkmenistan’s pricing dispute with Moscow seems to have confirmed in Berdymukhamedov’s mind a need to reduce Ashgabat’s export dependency on Russia. But with Russia still capable of causing lots of trouble for his administration, Berdymukhamedov appears intent on treading delicately.

Berdymukhamedov "would like to export to the West, but he doesn’t want to anger Russia by crossing the Caspian Sea with a new pipeline," a European diplomat familiar with Ashgabat’s energy-export maneuverings told EurasiaNet.

Oil feud reflects growing rift between Russia & Belarus

The quarrel involves a crude-oil subsidy that for years has helped prop up the government of the authoritarian leader of Belarus, President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko. The subsidy agreement, which yielded billions in profits annually to Belarus’s national oil company, ended on New Year’s Eve, and Russia’s prime minister, Vladimir V. Putin, said he had no intention of restoring it.

European pipe dreams meet Chinese pipelines

After Russia and Belarus failed to agree on tariff rates for crude oil exports when the previous agreement expired on New Year's Eve, Russia briefly cut off oil supplies to its smaller neighbor. This left Western Europe, which relies on Belarus to re-export much of its oil supply, facing the possibility of energy disruptions in the dead of winter

It has created a patchwork of disjointed national regulations, increasing the potential for ever-escalating Russian influence in the energy sphere and severely limiting the European Commission's ability to protect consumers from aggressive monopolies like Gazprom. When Surgutneftegas, an obscure Russian oil company with a murky ownership structure, attempted to purchase a controlling stake in Hungary's MOL -- one of Central Europe's largest energy companies -- for $1.8 billion, Brussels let the Hungarian government fend for itself. Similar scenarios have played out across the continent. European regulators may relish fighting American technology companies like Microsoft, but they have failed to fully protect EU citizens from invasive foreign energy monopolies.

In the meantime, China has quietly developed a multi-pronged investment strategy in Central Asia's energy patch, becoming the second-largest market for East Caspian gas exports behind Russia. Since 2008, China has agreed to provide $17.9 billion in new loans and strategic investments in exchange for access to massive energy reserves in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. When it reaches full capacity in 2013, the pipeline that Hu inaugurated last month will transport 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year -- almost twice the projected capacity of the Nabucco project, which remains on the drawing board.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 06 Jan 2010 13:07

Interesting read which would have been normally posted in one of the economic threads but I think it warrants posting in the Geopolitical thread.

My Lunch with the CIA

Lunch with the Central Intelligence Agency is always interesting, although five gorillas built like brick shithouses staring at me intently didn’t help my digestion.

Obama’s pick of Leon Panetta as the agency’s new director was controversial because he didn’t come from an intelligence background- upsetting the career spooks at Langley to no end. But the President thought a resume that included 16 years as the Democratic congressman from Monterey, California, and stints as Clinton’s Chief of Staff and OMB Director, was good enough. So when Panetta passed through town on his way home to heavenly Carmel Valley for the holidays, I thought I’d pull a few strings in Washington to catch a private briefing.

The long term outlook for supplies of food, natural resources, and energy is becoming so severe that the CIA is now viewing it as a national security threat. Some one third of emerging market urban populations are poor, or about 1.5 billion souls, and when they get hungry, angry, and politically or religiously inspired, Americans have to worry. This will be music to the ears of the hedge funds that have been stampeding into food, commodities, and energy since March. It is also welcome news to George Soros, who has quietly bought up enough agricultural land in Argentina to create his own medium sized country.

Panetta then went on to say that the current monstrous levels of borrowing by the Federal government abroad is also a security issue, especially if foreigners decide to turn the spigot off and put us on a crash diet. I was flabbergasted, not because this is true, but that it is finally understood at the top levels of the administration and is of interest to the intelligence agencies.......

......Job one is to defeat Al Qaida, and the agency has had success in taking out several terrorist leaders in the tribal areas of Pakistan with satellite directed predator drones. The CIA could well win the war in Afghanistan covertly, as they did the last war there in the eighties, with their stinger missiles supplied to the Taliban for use against the Russians. The next goal is to prevent Al Qaida from retreating to other failed states like Yemen and Somalia.......

......Cyber warfare is a huge new battlefront. Some 100 countries now have this capability, and they have stolen over $50 billion worth of intellectual property from the US in the past year. As much as I tried to pin Panetta down on who the culprits were, he wouldn’t name names, but indirectly hinted that the main hacker-in-chief was China. This comes on the heels of General Wesley Clark’s admission that the Chinese cleaned out the web connected mainframes at both the Pentagon and the State Department in 2007. The Bush administration kept the greatest security breach in US history secret to duck a hit in the opinion polls.........

........Panetta’s final piece of advice: don’t even think about making a cell phone call in Pakistan. I immediately deleted the high risk numbers from my cell phone address book.

Masaru · Post by **Masaru** » 07 Jan 2010 05:14

The Soviet Victory That Never Was

A realistic assessment of the Af-Pak situation in the late 80's.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 09 Jan 2010 10:58

Here is a report on the latest situ in Cabinda,a former Portugese enclave,now a UN problem like east Timor,where the Angolan army is illegally squatting and has virtually "leased out" the entire country to the Chinese who have exported tens of thousands of labour to vacuum clean the riches of Cabinda (vast reserves of oil,diamonds,gold,uranium,etc) which make Kuwait looks like a poor African state.The attack on the Togo football team where fanous international Adebayor was lucky to have escaped,shows how unstable the land is due to the rape of its wealth by outsiders.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/footba ... ttack.html

Emmanuel Adebayor: Togo players may quit after Angola gun attack
Emmanuel Adebayor admitted a lot of his Togo team-mates wanted to quit the African Nations Cup at the earliest opportunity following the attack on their team bus in Angola in which two players were shot and their bus driver was killed outright.

By Telegraph staff and agencies
Published: 11:28PM GMT 08 Jan 2010

To go or not to go: Emmanuel Adebayor and Togo team-mates will meet to decide wheter to carry on in the African Cup of Nations Photo: REX
The Manchester City striker, who revealed the terrifying attack en route to the team's base in the Cabinda province lasted 30 minutes, will convene a team meeting as captain tonight at which the squad will discuss whether they stay in Angola or return to their clubs.

He told BBC Radio Five Live: "I think a lot of players want to leave, I don't think they want to be at this tournament any more because they have seen their death already.

Related Articles
Togo: we cannot play after this bloodshed
Togo team attacked by rebels in Angola
Oil-rich sliver of land a hotbed for bloody conflict

Ian Chadband: attack is a nightmare vision of sport’s future "Most of the players want to go back to their family. No-one can sleep after what they have seen today. They have seen one of their team-mates have a bullet in his body, who is crying, who is losing consciousness and everything.

"So we will have a good meeting tonight, everyone will go to their room, they will rest and we will see tomorrow morning we will make a decision which is good for our life."

Adebayor added: "We are still in shock. If the security is not sure then we will be leaving tomorrow. I don't think they will be ready to give their life.

"We will discuss everything as a team and we will take a decision that we think is good for our career, is good for our life and good for our family."

Adebayor went on to recount what happened when the team bus reached the border between DR Congo and Angola.

He said: "We saw military people dressed like they were going to war and it was a little bit of a shock at the beginning, but I thought 'okay, it's for security which is normal, because we are players here for a big tournament and we are like ambassadors for Africans so it's normal that security is big'.

"We went through the border and got into Angola and, I don't know, 5km away from the border we started hearing shooting on the bus, for no reason. At the end of the day we got a lot of (people) injured.

"One of our second goalkeepers got a bullet in his body. Our press and communications guy has got injured; he's not even conscious now, we don't know if he's going to survive or not.

"These are the things we keep saying, keep repeating - in Africa we have to change our image if we want to be respected but unfortunately that's not happening.

"We have a chance with one of the biggest tournaments in the world, the World Cup. Can you imagine what's happening now? I'm disgraced and, I don't know, it's unfair."

Adebayor hailed the security who were trying to protect the team.

"To be honest without the security then I would not be here talking. Maybe you would be talking to my dead body. The security have done their job quite well," he told the BBC World Service.

"The thing we don't understand is why they shot on our bus, that's the question now. There's no-one who has got a reason for that. It's not only one guy, or two guys shooting one time or two times on our bus.

"Can you imagine, we have been in the middle of that for 30 minutes, even a little bit more. Our bus had been stopped and people had been shooting on our bus for 30 minutes.

"If you can imagine, the silence on the bus was unbelievable."

Adebayor did not know whether the attack was personally aimed at him, as one of Africa's most high-profile players, or his country in general.

He added: "I don't know whether I am the target or not, but I know my team or my country is the target - why, I don't know.

"We waited in hiding for 30 minutes because the bus had nowhere to go. Our driver was dead. He had the steering wheel in his hand but he had passed away. After that there were about seven or eight 4x4s arriving and we had to go out from the bus and climb into that car.

Following the journey to the hospital, Adebayor was involved in helping carry his injured team-mates and federation staff from their transport to the hospital.

"It was like we were still living in a dream," Adebayor added.

"I was one of the people who had to carry the injured players and injured staff into the hospital. Those are the times that you realise what is happening really.

"Everyone was crying and calling their family, I think this was the worst moment of this day. I am still in shock because I don't know whether it has really stopped or not or if we are still a target."

Serge Akakpo and Kodjovi Obilale were confirmed by their clubs as the players injured in the attack.

Fifa also released a statement speaking of their concern about the attack.

"Fifa and its President, Joseph S. Blatter, are deeply moved by today's incidents which affected Togo's national team, to whom they express their utmost sympathy," said the statement.

"Fifa is in touch with the African Football Confederation (CAF) and its President, Issa Hayatou, from which it expects a full report on the situation."

CAF have initially insisted that the tournament will go ahead as planned, though any withdrawal from Togo will clearly cause a huge logistical problem.

The FA are contacting Fifa to gain reassurance for English clubs who have players involved in the tournament.

Portsmouth said in a statement tonight: "We will be asking the FA to talk to Fifa to ensure the players' safety. That is paramount, and if the players' safety can't be ensured, then the players should be sent home."

Aston Villa have also confirmed their midfielder Moustapha Salifou is "shaken but okay" following the attack after managing to make contact with the 26-year-old's brother.

Villa boss Martin O'Neill told his club's official website, http://www.avfc.co.uk: "I am really shocked to hear about this.

"Obviously I am pleased and relieved to hear that Moustapha is okay and that he is not among the injured people.

"The club have been in contact with him and he has reassured us that he is okay but he is extremely shocked and upset, which he would be in these circumstances."

Togo attack: oil-rich Cabinda is hotbed for violent and bloody conflict
Cabinda is a tiny sliver of land, with less than 60 miles of coastline and a maximum width of 70 miles, but it is one of the most valuable pieces of territory on the entire African continent, and as a result has been wracked by on-and-off violence for decades.

By Sebastien Berger, South Africa Correspondent and Henry Samuel In Paris
Published: 8:00PM GMT 08 Jan 2010

It is part of Angola, which vies with Nigeria for the title of sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest oil producer, and is the site of more than half the country’s oil reserves, generating billions of pounds in income for Luanda every year.

But its resources have been claimed by neighbouring countries and is also home to its own separatist movement.

Ivory Coast can shine at African Cup For most of the Portuguese colonial period Cabinda was administered separately from the rest of Angola, but in 1975 the forces of Eduardo dos Santos, who is still Angola’s president, invaded.

A secessionist struggle has been waged ever since, flaring up sporadically but in recent years largely crushed by Luanda.

The main separatist movement, the Front for the Liberation of the State of Cabinda, is based in exile in the French capital Paris.

In the past its has been backed by both the territory’s neighbours, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Congo-Brazzaville, which accuse Luanda of exploiting their own oilfields.

One Flec faction has signed a ceasefire with the government, but others continue to fight and have kidnapped foreign workers.

The government has claimed that the war is over, but a Flec grouping last year claimed responsibility for kidnapping a Chinese worker.

Antonio Bento Bembe, the Flec leader who signed the ceasefire and joined the government in Luanda as minister in charge of Cabindan affairs, condemned the attack on the Togo team as terrorism. But human rights groups have accused the Angolan authorities of rights violations in the territory.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/footba ... flict.html