The Saker: What about India in all this? There apparently still is a lot of suspicion in India about the true motives of the Chinese, not only about “South Tibet” and border issues, but also about Chinese support for Pakistan and a general suspicion that China might use military force as it did in 1962 and 1967. What are, in your opinions, Chinese goals towards India. Does China still have expansionist plans towards India? Are Indian suspicions still warranted? Furthermore, Russia, China and India are members of the BRICS. It appears to me that for Russia to achieve a comprehensive and long term peace treaty between China and India would be a top strategic objective as tensions between China and India only benefit the US Empire. Likewise, it appears to me that for China it would be far more important to achieve a comprehensive and long term peace deal with India than to resolve petty border disputes and give support to Pakistan. Am I correct here, or am I missing something? Do you think that Russia and the other BRICS countries have the means to push both China and India away from their current “cool and cautious” relationship and into a real alliance? What kind of relationship with India would China ideally want?
Jeff J. Brown: India truly is the $64,000 dollar, er, yuan/ruble question, isn’t it? We have to go back to postwar history to get a proper perspective. Comparing China and India since then, has been nothing but a study in contrast. India got its independence in 1947, two years before China’s. It was (and still is) the world’s largest “Western” democracy. China’s liberation launched one of the greatest experiments in human history, in political, social and economic revolution. India was the Crown Jewel of the British Empire, with decent infrastructure, governing bodies, institutions and “civil society”, at least among the country’s educated elite, who helped run India during the UK’s 300 year, colonial rule.
Mao inherited a devastated, 19th century hellhole, with drug addiction and almost no infrastructure, outside what the colonialists built to ship in the opium and haul off all the loot. The British Raj made sure he would leave a legacy of tension and religious strife, by partitioning off Pakistan and messing up the borders between India, China and Pakistan. The US made sure that the Communists had their anti-China, by helping Chiang Kai-Shek and his fascist KMT escape to establish Taiwan. Both China and India had vast land masses and huge populations to drive their economies.
Before Russia and China ended their split in 1989, Deng Xiaoping famously said that if the 21st century was to be Asia’s, then China and India had to do it together, to make it happen. But it hasn’t turned out that way, at least until now, has it? India had what the French call, a “champagne and caviar” revolution, where the local Indian colonial elite took over where the British left off. Departing Lord Mountbatten appointed Jawaharlal Nehru as prime minister, King George VI’s royal pick, Mr. Indian Establishment. The colonial hierarchy and all its institutions largely stayed, only to be managed by the Indian elite. This sclerotic, corrupt system was kept in place.
Contrast that to China’s dictatorship of the people, where Mao and the Communists cleaned up their political, social and economic house. Out with the colonial compradors and running dog capitalists, in with taking China from the 19th to the 20th century in one generation, standing tall and proud, without any help from the West. And they did it, with massive success across the country (listen to
http://44days.net/?p=2386 for the amazing story). The Mao Era transformed China and dramatically improved the lives of the vast majority of the people, while “Western democratic” India floundered economically and politically, going through prime ministers like poop through a goose.
It was a bitter pill for Indians to swallow. And that was even before the Deng Era, with its double digit growth and another economic and social revolution, which world history had never seen before, and probably never will again. So, it is easy to see why Indians are a little bit techy about comparing themselves to the Chinese, and why they have a bit of a chip on their shoulders. It’s only human nature.
Recently, more frustrations set in, with the Xi-Putin-China-Russia Express flying at breakneck speed. Wasn’t Russia India’s longtime friend? What’s going on? Again, the Indians felt slighted by the Chinese. However, it often boils down to leadership and India seems to have finally gotten a prime minister worth his salt, someone who can belly up to the geopolitical bar and state India’s case, Mr. Narendra Modi. With the Indian Grenadier regiment marching alongside China’s PLA in Moscow on May 9th, reciprocal Xi-Modi state visits, Putin’s state visit to Delhi and Modi’s scheduled two visits to Russia later this year, it looks like Deng’s vision may finally be realized. Western Empire is still a dangerous giant straddling the world. I am sure that Deng is smiling in his grave, knowing that his China-India dream now includes China’s long lost socialist brother-in-revolution, Russia.
But it will not be all that easy. The British Raj intentionally left that terrible border legacy between China and India, and with Pakistan as well. China and India had a border war in 1962, which the Chinese won. Ouch. More Indian egos bruised. But India got even, taking back Sikkim in 1967. The fact that much of it is religiously fueled, makes it that much more intractable. Hindus believe that the map of India is in the shape of Bharat Mata, the Mother Goddess of India, and any land conceded to China or Pakistan is tantamount to removing part of her head. Nor are we talking about a few islands in the Amur River and some slivers of land between Russian, Mongolia, North Korea and China, all of which have signed formal treaties in the last 25 years, to settle their boundary disputes. Modi and Xi have 138,000 km2 on the table, with Tibetan Buddhists, Pakistani Muslims and Indian Hindus glaring menacingly over their shoulders. It’s a nightmare. The world’s highest highway, running between China and Pakistan over the Khunjerab Pass, then down to the Port of Gwadar, which the Chinese are managing? Baba Beijing pitched it to India first and was given the cold shoulder, largely due to public pressure on the government not to “give in” to the Chinese on the border dispute.
Leaving out Pakistan for the moment, the Indians have much more to lose over this than the Chinese. While it would be hard for China to give all its disputed land back to India, I think Baba Beijing could go to the Chinese people and explain why they gave back, not all, but more than half. I believe this is what Modi meant, when he gave his speech this month in Beijing, asking the Chinese to please consider India’s “special situation” (about the border dispute). He asked publically, like a gentleman, rebuffing India’s very vocal and volatile nationalists.
Huge steps were taken during Modi’s visit. There has been no diplomatic or military contact between China and India, since the 1962 and 1967 wars, to address the issue, just pot shots over each other’s heads and the occasional skirmish. Now there are red phones installed in Beijing and Delhi. Generals along the border will now regularly meet to discuss any sore spots. And most importantly, there will be high level, diplomatic discussions every six months, to specifically settle the border terms. The Raj was a demonic genius and it’s been a long, destructive half century.
The Indian-Chinese border dispute is the biggest weak link in forging an alliance between Russia, China and India. Russia, with its historical warm relations with India, has signaled a willingness to play the intermediary. Let’s hope these three countries prove the Washington-London-Paris-Tokyo consensus wrong. A locked-arm, trident alliance between China, Russia and India might even give Western Empire pause. Throw in Iran and maybe Uncle Sam might even want to sit down to talk.
a 3000ft runway.