Bharat Rakshak

Tweet Thread - A view on what can happen from now on in Ukraine. Link to the first tweet in the thread -
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status ... 29825?s=20

^^^ I find it highly unlikely that the sequence would be like that. I don't think Russia wants war - they just want Ukraine back in their orbit or atleast not in NATO orbit. And definitely, they won't start the hostilities.

What might happen are "softer" provocations that will for the West to either ignore (and hence accept) or respond (and trigger Russian counter-response).

For instance, there might be a declaration of Independence by Dombass region, tempting Ukraine to respond in force. If it doesn't, it becomes a long insurgency/counter-insurgency operation with special forces on either side.

There might be political trouble in Kiev. Some scandal might come forth that may result in Prime Minister quitting.

There might also be an assassination of key anti-russian figure. While Russia may be accused, they can't be definitively held guilty, giving them street creds as well as cover.

Another Dombass-type still frozen conflict that will drag on for another 10 years

Or provoke/trigger a Ukrainian operation that kills their own civilians ...

The possibilities are endless.

The real danger will be Putin and Xi coordinating a Russian invasion of Ukraine and Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The Europeans would not be able to help with the Taiwan situation, as they would be busy trying to deal with the Russian bear and the US would have a tough time getting its act together on both fronts.
India would be in a very difficult situation if this happens.

The US is currently stalling for time. If Russia does invade it will mostly be in the eastern Donbass region. Western sanctions would kick in and Russian energy supplies to Europe would probably be cut off. In the middle of winter, this would make things difficult for ordinary Europeans. Plus the oil prices would sky rocket, as Russia would cut off all oil supplies to the west. Saudi would only be able to make up for so much of the shortfall. Besides MBS has been loathe to toe the US line off late. Higher prices would help the Saudis as well and also Iran. Russian supplies to China would continue and also increase. Russia might also force countries like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to reduce the supply of oil and gas in the market, to have a greater impact and rive the prices even higher. The other major gas supplier Qatar is also not too pro-west of late and everyone likes to milk the situation and make extra dollars.
With sanctions on Russia, the world economy would go into a tail spin, if the Russian energy supplies stop completely as the oil and gas prices would sky rocket in the middle of winter in the northern hemisphere and inflation would become a real problem.
This would be the short term scenario where the US and the Europeans would bear the brunt in the short term. In the medium term, Russia would have to depend very heavily on China and China would emerge as the real winner.

Malayappan wrote:What Lies Beneath The Replacement Of The German Navy Chief

The solution to this sort of situation globally can only come from wise leadership, primarily from the buffer states in any such circumstance. There must be internal acknowledgement by Ukraine that while its right to join EU/NATO must be inviolable in principle, exercise of that right would be detrimental to regional stability.
Kiev’s actions must flow from there, perhaps in a parliamentary resolution, and a responsible acknowledgement of Russian redlines. Moscow must also acknowledge Ukraine’s rights in principle. It must recognise that for Kiev to keep those rights in abeyance requires carrots, and the stick must be invisible.
On a higher level, the US, the EU (Germany), and Russia must put an end to the needless needling of each other on this strategic frontline, which is vital to global stability, and get back to the business of doing business. There are other, larger and more substantial threats to counter.

A good summary of the situation!

Excellent article - the overall summary being:

"there must be internal acknowledgement by Ukraine that while its right to join EU/NATO must be inviolable in principle, exercise of that right would be detrimental to regional stability."

mody wrote:The real danger will be Putin and Xi coordinating a Russian invasion of Ukraine and Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The Europeans would not be able to help with the Taiwan situation, as they would be busy trying to deal with the Russian bear and the US would have a tough time getting its act together on both fronts.

This won't happen; Taiwan can hold off a Chinese invasion without any outside help. China simply lacks the air and amphibious capability to land sufficient troops. If Taiwan shared a land border with China they'd have been gobbled up long ago, but they're an island. And a very heavily defended island at that, bristling with fortifications and even underground airfields. They've got tons of potent anti-tank and short range anti-ship missiles that would be effective against landing craft. Their military is sizeable and well equipped. People don't give Taiwan's military their due credit. Any Chinese invasion now, with the PLA \ PLAN \ PLAAF in their current state, would be a disaster for the Chinese. Frankly, I think it would be a massacre.

All China can realistically do is bombard Taiwan with missiles and blockade them at sea. The missiles would do little more than terrorize the population, but the blockade would shut down their economy and disrupt the critical electronics supply chain for most of the world's big manufacturers. As a result, it's likely any Chinese blockade would be challenged by the USN. The end result would be Taiwan more alienated and more militarized than ever. China has nothing to gain from this.

I don't think that either Russia or China are going to attack. It just doesn't make sense for either of them to do so.

Aditya_V wrote:Well RBI holds 619 Tons and the Indian Public plus temples will hold another 27000 tons- does that count?

Against RBI reserve of 619 metric tons of gold, Indian M2 money supply is about ~$650 billion (top of my head). It's certainly not more than $680 billion. So India needs a hurdle price of ~$30,000 per ounce. Public + temple gold will not be helpful in backing money supply. However It can be helpful in giving a stimulus to the economy if gold prices rise in a crisis as people will be tempted to sell gold which will give rise to consumption which will lead to an increase in production and then employment i.e. the traditional economic cycle. However that virtuous cycle will be beneficial only to the extent that production happens in India, not if that increase in demand results in more imports from China.

Whatever you may say about Obama, he got Ukraine right. This is his response in 2015 as to why he did not take stronger action after Russia invaded Crimea:

“Putin acted in Ukraine in response to a client state that was about to slip out of his grasp. And he improvised in a way to hang on to his control there,” he said. “He’s done the exact same thing in Syria, at enormous cost to the well-being of his own country. And the notion that somehow Russia is in a stronger position now, in Syria or in Ukraine, than they were before they invaded Ukraine or before he had to deploy military forces to Syria is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of power in foreign affairs or in the world generally. Real power means you can get what you want without having to exert violence. Russia was much more powerful when Ukraine looked like an independent country but was a kleptocracy that he could pull the strings on.”

Obama’s theory here is simple: Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there.

“The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-nato country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do,” he said.

I asked Obama whether his position on Ukraine was realistic or fatalistic.

“It’s realistic,” he said. “But this is an example of where we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for.

Unlike Biden who seems to be railroaded into a no win situation by his advisors.

The Obama Doctrine

Biden got the old discards from Obama who created the Ukrain mess in the first place.

ramana wrote:Biden got the old discards from Obama who created the Ukrain mess in the first place.

It may still be obama pulling the strings

someone went to a great deal of trouble to get biden into the oval office. Biden was/is not presidential material and ditto with harris and the veeps office

surely not just to give up the control just when they seem to be getting started.

The afghanistan fiasco looked too well coordinated and choreographed to be written off as a paki + taliban run show. The paki forte has always been tactics and not strategy

no particular reason for OPEC to be acting up either unless the extra money is going towards the funding of this new and active armed avatar of the eyrabs and their pals

Ukraine front troops are happy to bring their troopcarriers to Russian side.. there is this video https://youtu.be/VNig07RtWxA.

chetak wrote:It may still be obama pulling the strings

IMO it almost certainly is.

rsingh wrote:Ukraine front troops are happy to bring their troop carriers to Russian side.. there is this video https://youtu.be/VNig07RtWxA.

Bear in mind that this video is almost 8 years old. Don't know how relevant it is today.

The way I see It aslong as Russia does not attack with US-UK calling wolf- I suspect some provocation behind the scenes must be planned. If Russia does not attack and situation remains the same with corrupt and useless politicans- the west could lose loose Ukraine.

So they need to do something, otherwise it looks like Saddam Hussein weapons of mass destruction again.

The US IMO has totally miscalculated the situation in Ukraine.

They have put Russia in a place from which they have relatively few options. In so doing they have turned a nation which would at worst neutral in any conflict with PRC. Into a defacto ally of PRC.

Secondly diplomacy has a simple rules. If you have the ability to accomplish your objectives on the battlefield. You will have the ability to accomplish your objectives on the negotiating table.

It seems that the US has reached the conclusion that Russia is unable to accomplish it's objectives on the battlefield. Therefore, no accomodation has to be made for Russia.

Only time will tell how right or wrong this calculation turns out to be.

In the last few hundred years. Both Napoleon and Hitler have approached Russia with the same attitude. We know how that turned out for both.

Pratyush wrote:The US IMO has totally miscalculated the situation in Ukraine.

They have put Russia in a place from which they have relatively few options. In so doing they have turned a nation which would at worst neutral in any conflict with PRC. Into a defacto ally of PRC.

In the last few hundred years. Both Napoleon and Hitler have approached Russia with the same attitude. We know how that turned out for both.

Good point. Rule of the thumb.

Never ever corner the bear.

Biden is an idiot.

WRONG POST

Roop wrote:

rsingh wrote:Ukraine front troops are happy to bring their troop carriers to Russian side.. there is this video https://youtu.be/VNig07RtWxA.

Bear in mind that this video is almost 8 years old. Don't know how relevant it is today.

Yes. it was wrong from my side.

All of this drama from the US side seems to be about local political narratives in the USA -- the Russia narrative was used against Trump and his looming as a 2024 candidate would imply that keeping the Russia bogey alive would help Biden/democrats push their anti-Russia narrative.

If that is the case, it could be that the US just moved a bunch of troops out of Afghanisthan and into Ukraine for the long haul -- given the downsides, Russia is unlikely to invade Ukraine as its cost of keeping the Army at the border is a lot less than the cost to the US to project power in Ukraine.

Situation seems ripe in the USA for "wag the dog"-like scenario -- force a war in Ukraine to demonstrate political leadership...if they are willing to put their money where their mouth is.

headlines in USA propaganda rags like NYT and WaPo are along these lines:

"More U.S. military equipment arrives in Ukraine as Russia threat grows"

It almost seems like there is a political compulsion in the US to deploy a large army around the world, so that budget can be allotted to US's war machine. Afghanisthan has been quickly replaced by Ukraine so that US military spending has a fait accompli for requesting $$$s in the next budget.

Missile crisis II? Kremlin reveals Putin has discussed 'strategic partnership' with Cuba days after fears were raised Russia will deploy military to Latin America

The guys currently in charge of Ukraine seem to be echo-ing moscow rather than the west.

https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defens ... 28759.html

Zelensky, in a televised address to the nation, said, "We are strong enough to keep everything under control and derail any attempts at destabilization."

Earlier this month, Ukraine blamed Russia for a cyberattack that infected dozens of Ukraine's government and private computer networks

Zekensky added that decisions by other countries to evacuate citizens, diplomats, and diplomats' dependents from Ukraine "doesn't necessarily signal an inevitable escalation and is part of a complex diplomatic game."

The U.S., Britain, Australia, Germany and Canada have all evacuated some of their nationals, per AP.

So the AUKUS/EU/NATO countries are all pretty sure harm will come the way of their citizens and are also dropping weapons into Ukraine.

Germany is not allowing US mil flights to ukraine overflight, but they are not about to stop getting cheap oil from Russia only to replace Russia with Qatari oil from i a pipeline that is yet to be constructed. So it is up to the US to escalate this to war mostly.

Ukraine screwed itself when it shut down NordStream I -- they were making commision on the gas pipeline transit and also getting subsidized oil from russia, until 2014, with the Sochi Winter Olympics, coincided with start of US orchestrated colour olympics, which has now vanished from all western websites and tagged as "disinformation", but one only has to go to Page 1 of this thread that documents the whole thing. The following reference still has it..how long till this entry vanishes??

https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukrain ... presidency

The Orange Revolution in Ukraine followed the disputed second round of the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election, leading to the annulment of the result and the repeat of the round – Leader of the Opposition Viktor Yushchenko was declared President, defeating Viktor Yanukovych.

Will troll through the earlier pages of this thread and post links to articles that are relevant,

Missile crisis II? ....

Yeah, lot of Cuban mijjile crisis like hot air. US elections are coming up in November 2022, so all the headlines need to be discounted accordingly. Having said that, China, Iran and Russ have been used in the past to sharpen prejidential image. Biden people unlikely 2 use China and Iran, so Russ is perfect candidate, and historical bogeyman for dems. Read somewhere that pres. biden’s approval rating is below 40%? Russ is interfering US elections again Not sure what happens to Russ ultimatum to NATO, but all the neighboring countries holding NATO annual subscription card, are likely to see major destabilization in their own countries starting with Ukraine.

Below 28%.

kit wrote:Biden is an idiot.

Yes he is, but the problem here is that he is not the one making policy. There is (IMO) a sinister gang of thugs behind the scene making policy and just telling Biden to go out and "sign this" or "do that". Who are these mysterious Biden-handlers, you ask? Well, it is a matter of intelligent conjecture, but it has been speculated on this thread that Obama is one of them, and I agree with this speculation.

POOF

POOF

POOF

Folks, stick to thread topic (Ukraine and Eastern Europe) and not your air your personal views about US politicos.

Srikandan, deleted a bunch of your opinion posts. Desist from doing that

hnairji, Will watch myself to stick to topic -- try to delete off topic when i can recognize.

What the US and UK get wrong about Ukraine

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/2 ... t-ukraine/

So there seems to be something new, US seems eager to de escalate the Ukraine situation, they apparently want India to mediate between them and the Russians .

The Americans have caught the proverbial tigers tail and no idea how to let it go

kit wrote:So there seems to be something new, US seems eager to de escalate the Ukraine situation, they apparently want India to mediate between them and the Russians .

The Americans have caught the proverbial tigers tail and no idea how to let it go

Any link ??

Haresh wrote:

kit wrote:So there seems to be something new, US seems eager to de escalate the Ukraine situation, they apparently want India to mediate between them and the Russians .

The Americans have caught the proverbial tigers tail and no idea how to let it go

Any link ??

US would 'welcome' India's effort to de-escalate Russia-Ukraine conflict, says White House

https://www.republicworld.com/world-new ... eshow.html

Jen Psaki in the white house presser said she had no information to share when asked about US govt. talking to Indian officials about Russia. No official mouthpiece of the US has said anything close to "welcoming India's efforts in Ukraine".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXWrw6C7LuA

kit wrote:So there seems to be something new, US seems eager to de escalate the Ukraine situation, they apparently want India to mediate between them and the Russians .

The Americans have caught the proverbial tigers tail and no idea how to let it go

If Jaishankar actually pulls this off (defusing a US-Russia crisis), it would be a diplomatic coup for the ages. His father would be proud.

All these years I'd have been the first one to say "no, why should we mediate, it's not our business, let them deal with each other or go stuff themselves". But perhaps this is the opportunity for India to assert itself not through defiance but through exercising its influence as a mediator to garner maximum benefit for itself in the aftermath.

Think about it-- United Queendom is regularly called in as a "mediator" in so many international diplomatic processes; we are economically and militarily more powerful than UQ now, so why should we not step in when the opportunity presents itself?

Also, it's not as if we have nothing to lose in a US-Russia conflict. We are enmeshed with both of them now, like it or not. Russia is still the mainstay of our defence purchases and a primary source of backing in the P-5 on most diplomatic issues. US influence is key for our purposes in groups like FATF and NSG, besides our direct interactions with them in the Indo Pacific. If they fight and start pushing us to choose one side over the other, we will lose whichever way we go.

So why not at least try our best to contribute a resolution to the situation rather than waiting passively to see what happens?

Yes, she has no information to share from WH as it's being handled separately most likely.

India is in a perfect position to mediate considering our present relationship with all the parties involved in this crisis. We can continue to do nothing and watch China who is next best placed take advantage of the situation. Or if India can find a solution to this mess that would be like grabbing a seat at the table which has rightly belonged to us for some time now. We can and are maintaining a balanced relationship with US and Russia and in a near future where a declining super power is going to be challenged by other heavy weights, this advantage is worth its weight in gold, if you know to make use of it.

What is SWIFT and why it might be the weapon Russia fears most
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/26/investin ... index.html
26 Jan 2022

Rakesh wrote:What is SWIFT and why it might be the weapon Russia fears most
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/26/investin ... index.html
26 Jan 2022

Russians have threatened cutting off oil and gas to Europe if they are cut off from SWIFT

Europe won’t receive Russian oil and gas, if Russia disconnected from SWIFT — senator

"SWIFT is a settlement system, it is a service. Therefore, if Russia is disconnected from SWIFT, then we will not receive [foreign] currency, but buyers, European countries in the first place, will not receive our goods - oil, gas, metals and other important components of their imports. Do they need it? I am not sure," Zhuravlev said.

Dilbu wrote:India is in a perfect position to mediate considering our present relationship with all the parties involved in this crisis. We can continue to do nothing and watch China who is next best placed take advantage of the situation. Or if India can find a solution to this mess that would be like grabbing a seat at the table which has rightly belonged to us for some time now. We can and are maintaining a balanced relationship with US and Russia and in a near future where a declining super power is going to be challenged by other heavy weights, this advantage is worth its weight in gold, if you know to make use of it.

Agreed. India is now in a perfect position to act as a bridge between Russia and the US. The three great powers (US, India and Russia) all have much more in common and more converging interests than differences. We make natural allies. The world order should be US\India\Russia + allies vs China + allies (Pak, NK, Turkey, etc).

The central contention seems to be that NATO thinks it should be allowed to expand all the way to Russia's borders, and Russia disagrees and is willing to use force if NATO does not back down. The party that needs talking down here is not Russia, which is responding to a threat at its border. In this situation, there is no bridge in the dialogue short of one party backing down -- Russia won't as it sees this as an existential threat on its border. So what is this "bridge" in the dialogue that can be filled in by third parties, unless the third party convinces one of them to back off? Don't see it.

The new whirled order is yet to settle down, so seems too early to tell how things will split up.