Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 05 Mar 2014 19:08

nageshks wrote:
RajeshA wrote:NDA Alliance in TN

DMDK: 14
BJP: 8
PMK: 8
MDMK: 6
Kongu: 1
IJK: 1
Puthiya Neethi: 1

Well Done TN BJP!
If this is true, I am a little conflicted. On the one hand, I am delighted that BJP has managed to put together a formidable coalition in TN. On the other hand, I am rather sad that the BJP is still contesting only 8 seats. I mean, people, BJP has the highest vote share of all coalition partners in TN. Giving 14 seats to that drunkard's party seems criminal to me. He does not deserve more than 10 seats (and he has no more than 5% votes in TN - Amma is cleaning up his party big time). Even in 1999, when BJP was allied with Karunanidhi, the split was 19 (DMK), 6(MDMK), 7(PMK), 1(TRC), 6(BJP). That the BJP, being the strongest alliance partner in terms of vote share, should get only 8 seats seems unfair. My opinion - BJP should contest at least 10 seats.

nageshks ji,

BJP's problem is not so much popularity as much as lack of cadre, I think. It is better to concentrate the cadre in a few places where chances are highest and leave the rest to those who could translate the seats into wins better than self.

I am pretty sure, all these parties would be using the image of Narendra Modi big time while canvassing. This way Modi would reach a lot more people, thus increasing vote-share and popularity of Modi and BJP in the next round - state elections!

BJP's aim beside winning a few more seats in TN is to fracture the mandate in TN as much as possible. Then Modi can use ALL parties in TN in NDA as and how HE pleases. No mercurial tantrums would then be entertained. In fact Modi can use TN pretty much in the same way, UPA used UP parties - SP and BSP.

With a fractured mandate in TN, whoever wins there is automatically a potential post-poll NDA alliance partner.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 05 Mar 2014 19:50

Also a pity that Nairs are getting swayed by the few crumbs thrown at them by the Kerala UPA Govt.

I think such statements should be avoided.It doesnt reflect well at all.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 05 Mar 2014 20:01

archan wrote:So the elections are next month! after filling the forms months ago, SHQ's and my names are not in the onlline voter list. Wonder if we'll get to vote. Can this be remedied easily?

Yes. I take it you are in a city. Go to your muncipal/corporation ward office and submit an application to add your name with your passport/ration card/<whatever id proof>. If you have already done this, they should have given you a receipt for your application. Go with this, and remind them that your name is missing. My experience is that you personally need to go to the ward office. Phone nudges will not work.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 05 Mar 2014 20:07

svenkat wrote:
Also a pity that Nairs are getting swayed by the few crumbs thrown at them by the Kerala UPA Govt.
I think such statements should be avoided.It doesnt reflect well at all.

Sorry, I meant to say Nair Service Society (NSS)! There was a lot of hope that they would endorse NaMo, but UPA gave a berth to one of them, and they decided against an endorsement.

So much for Hindu consolidation in a state with a resurgent Islam.

archan · Post by **archan** » 05 Mar 2014 20:12

SwamyG wrote:
archan wrote:So the elections are next month! after filling the forms months ago, SHQ's and my names are not in the onlline voter list. Wonder if we'll get to vote. Can this be remedied easily?
Talk to your local Congress/AAP representative, promise them 2 votes . Congress will get your name on the list. AAP will get your face on the TV. We all can see how Archan looks.

I have two horns on my head! happy?

AAP has already found my email and emailed 2-3 times from regions where I have never lived, to join their party.

Dunno what will happen if I were to approach them. They might superglue the white topi on my head so I can't ever remove it.
Thanks chaanakya, will do the needful to make sure I get to vote for Congress.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 05 Mar 2014 20:14

RajeshA wrote: Sorry, I meant to say Nair Service Society (NSS)! There was a lot of hope that they would endorse NaMo, but UPA gave a berth to one of them, and they decided against an endorsement.

So much for Hindu consolidation in a state with a resurgent Islam.

RajeshA-ji,
NSS is an organisation split between (mostly) Left and (a few) Congressis. Their leaders are all lapdogs of the Cong. and Left. Except in Malabar, they are inconsequential, really. And in Malabar, Kasargod is fully polarised according to my sister (there are about 57% Hindus, 37% Muslims, rest assorted). According to my sister, Hindus are fully behind the BJP this time. Kannur is a hyper-violent red district, where BJP has little chance. Again, according to my sister, Kozhikode is also swinging towards BJP (whether BJP wins remains to be seen). RSS cadres are fully active (demographics in Kozhikode is similar to Kasargod, except there are a few more Eastern Christians in the area). Not much idea about Palakkad. But honestly, these three are the only seats where the BJP even has a chance of victory in Malabar. What NSS does will not affect anything except marginally. These are organisations that have been losing influence, and are just trying to curry favour with the powers that be.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 05 Mar 2014 20:47

I would say with 36% vote in three cornered contest it should be 60+

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 05 Mar 2014 20:55

Good news!!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 05 Mar 2014 21:00

Published on Mar 05, 2014
BJP to contest 8 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana; HJC 2: PTI

CHANDIGARH :BJP will contest eight Lok Sabha seats while its ally Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) will fight on two seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls in Haryana.

The alliance will announce the names of the candidates on March 7.

"HJC will contest on two seats (Karnal and Hisar) and its ally BJP on eight as per the pact between the two parties," said a HJC statement here today.

"The alliance partners will announces their candidates for the 10 Lok Sabha seats on March 7," the statement said, quoting HJC supremo Kuldeep Bishnoi.

"There is a wave of change in the country and people are prepared to bring NDA at the Centre and the HJC-BJP alliance in Haryana.

"The HJC-BJP alliance will sweep all the 10 seats in Haryana," Bishnoi claimed.

Meanwhile, sources said Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal is working behind the scene to forge and alliance between Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and BJP in Haryana.

However, the Haryana BJP leadership is against any truck with INLD for the upcoming polls, they said.

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 05 Mar 2014 21:22

There are reports of street fights between AAP and BJP in Delhi... mini Color revolution has started.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 05 Mar 2014 21:36

In their deal with RJD, Congress gets the following seats in Bihar:

Sasaram (Congress MP Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar)
Kishanganj (Congress MP Mohammed Asrarul)
Aurangabad Supaul,
Purnia
Hajipur (LJP fights here)
Nalanda (LJP fights here)
Patna Sahib
Balmikinagar
Jamui (LJP fights here)
Muzaffarpur
Aurangabad
Gopalganj

Any chances of Congress getting any seat here?

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 05 Mar 2014 21:48

RajeshA wrote:In their deal with RJD, Congress gets the following seats in Bihar:

Sasaram (Congress MP Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar)

Kishanganj (Congress MP Mohammed Asrarul)

Aurangabad Supaul,

Purnia

Hajipur (LJP fights here)

Nalanda (LJP fights here)

Patna Sahib

Balmikinagar

Jamui (LJP fights here)

Muzaffarpur

Aurangabad

Gopalganj
Any chances of Congress getting any seat here?

Kishanganj for sure! > 50 % M Population.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 05 Mar 2014 21:48

Now DMDK + DMK is doing the rounds on twitter!

Man TN politics are so fluid!

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 05 Mar 2014 21:48

Kishanganj is 65% Secular and 35% communal. Unless votes get divided, that is Con seat. Aurangabad is Thakur dominated, Kerla ex-gov fighting, tough but open...rest later

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Mar 2014 21:53

DNA reports;

EC announcement stumps Govt

The Election Commission stumped the UPA government with a sudden poll announcement on Wednesday. The scheduled Cabinet meeting to announce more sops was cancelled. And several ministers went in a tizzy to announce last minute bonanza.

Sources revealed that the central government was expecting poll announcement on Thursday. But the EC advanced the announcement, just hours after the Prime Minister's return from Mayanmar and thus prevented the Cabinet to announce any further sops.

This however, didn’t deter the government, who went on with few announcements just before the model code of conduct came into force. The Youth Youth Affairs and Sports Minister Jitendra Singh early morning launched three projects including swimming polls worth Rs 9.07 crore in three government stadiums in Delhi, the national cycling academy at the Indira Gandhi Sports Complex and a community connect scheme to turn three city stadiums into sports-cum-recreation centres to let local people use them for recreation and overall health and fitness.

For the past few days, the UPA government had kept its officials on their toes, asking them to clear a record number of backlog schemes and programmes.

The Rural Development Ministry headed by Jairam Ramesh also beat the model code of conduct by raising wages in the Mahatma Gandhi National Employment Guarantee Programme by 4 to 18 per cent. The revision gives the labourer in Haryana the highest Rs 236 a day, while the lowest is Rs 153 in Meghalaya. The increase is 18 per cent in Kerala and 4 per cent in Maharashtra.

The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways headed by Oscar Fernandes also stepped on Tuesday evening, soon after the Election Commission issued invitations to media persons for the press conference. Fernandes promised financial relief in terms of payment of premium to the government to the private contractors of the road projects to stop them from walking out without completing the jobs in hand.

They can now stagger the payment of premium to the the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for build-operate-transfer projects. The relief will stop the builders' walkouts and ease the way for big-ticket road projects ahead of the elections. The GMR was the first to threaten to walk out of the 555km Kishangarh-Udaipur-Ahmedabad highway in December 2012. Another company GVK had threatened to dump a 330km highway in Madhya Pradesh connecting Shivpuri to Dewas.

Companies bag lucrative contracts — long and wide roads with potentially heavy traffic that promises a sizeable toll collection — on the strength of the premium they offer the government to be paid over 20 to 25 years. The relief frees them from having to pay the agreed amount every year by paying less in the initial years. It will help the builders involved in at least 48 road projects across the country.

The Social Justice and Empowerment Ministry was not left behind. It dusted out a decision to set up Dr Ambedkar International Centre for research, oriental and Buddhist studies and a public library at a cost of Rs 200 crore at Janpath.

The Ministry of Minority Affairs also announced a series of schemes and programmes for the betterment of the minorities while the Home Ministry also came out with a gazette notification on Wednesday reversing the possession of 123 Wakf properties in Delhi to the Delhi Wakf Board.

Meanwhile, the Goa's Congress MP Shantaram Naik, who is also head of parliament standing committee on law lamented that the Election Commission has ignored the recommendation his parliamentary panel to enforce the model code of conduct from the date of notification and not from the date of announcement of the poll schedule.

He said the Parliamentary panel's considered view was that the development works, be they of the Centre or the state governments, should not suffer between the period of announcement of the poll schedule and actual notification, more particularly when elections are held in multiple phases. He pointed out that all development works will come to a standstill for the next 75 days just because of the poll announcement made on Wednesday.

Naik said the commission better concentrate on putting curbs on the distribution of freebies during elections, curtail the flow of black money and remove all the ambiguities in the rules regarding poll expenditure, instead of the new model code requiring the parties to show the ways and means to meet the financial requirements of any promises they make in the election manifestos.

Jairam Ramesh is a commie infiltrator.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 05 Mar 2014 21:55

fanne wrote:Good news!!

Well it dropped from 38% in Jan. But they have provided explanation as it why it dropped, The biggest chunk of the 2% drop (1.5 of the 2) comes from Jat support for BJP declining from 60% in Jan to 45% in Feb. No wonder a lot of people felt the meerut rally was a dud. The only way they can make up for that loss is by getting tickets right. It is a different matter that seat tally remains same (but their range is too big 41-49). We will never know if it has dropped from 46 to 42.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 05 Mar 2014 21:56

This morning it looked like

NDA: BJP + DMDK + ...
3rdFront: AIADMK + Left ..

This evening

NDA - DMDK
AIADMK - Left

So AIADMK + BJP a definite possibility in TN! Don't know how BJP's other allies would take it - MDMK, PMK, IJK, KMK, PN!

I don't think BJP should go with either AIADMK or with DMK!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Mar 2014 22:14

Hope not. Recall she pulled down ABV govt before the Kargil intrusion in 1998 and made it lame duck govt while and infiltration was underway. No one called her out on that.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 05 Mar 2014 22:14

How soon after an election is notified does a model code of conduct fall into place ? The EC should be able to roll back all the last minute sops made after they announced the poll.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 05 Mar 2014 22:19

Kind of confirms TMC as Massa's project after Prakash Karat opposed Nuclear deal.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 Mar 2014 22:30

Suraj wrote:How soon after an election is notified does a model code of conduct fall into place ? The EC should be able to roll back all the last minute sops made after they announced the poll.

With immediate effect. Nothing is allowed without ECI approval. No last minutes sops.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 05 Mar 2014 22:31

BTW what happens to opinion polls? I believe only exit polls are banned from telecast.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 Mar 2014 22:34

Opinion Polls are allowed except for prior to 48 hrs to the poll date and exit polls till the last poll date.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 05 Mar 2014 22:36

In 2009, the first phase started from East UP. West UP was the last to go to polls. This time it is the opposite. One and a half months for the BSP to make inroads in West UP.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 05 Mar 2014 22:47

If true, then it's crazy in TN.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 05 Mar 2014 22:52

ramana wrote:Hope not. Recall she pulled down ABV govt before the Kargil intrusion in 1998 and made it lame duck govt while and infiltration was underway. No one called her out on that.

to be fair to her, neither Jaya nor ABV nor any one in India knew about the occupation in feb when she pulled ABV down, with superb help from the twitter star.

India didnt detect kargil attack until may.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 Mar 2014 22:55

Bad move in TN, short term gain, long term pain. The third front would have given a space between the two dominant fronts for future growth specially when BJP may not need AIADMK desperately like in 1998. Orissa redux.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 05 Mar 2014 22:56

^^If BJP is ally with JJ, then what about the lliance with the other parties. They can't chuck them out at this stage.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 05 Mar 2014 23:42

Paul wrote:^^If BJP is ally with JJ, then what about the lliance with the other parties. They can't chuck them out at this stage.

As per twitter psephologists DMDK, PMK are going with DMK and Cong.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 06 Mar 2014 01:11

ramana wrote:DNA reports;

EC announcement stumps Govt

Majority of the infra sops seem to help dhilli.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Mar 2014 02:06

Hindu had an article about how AIADMK-Left front alliance has collapsed in one month starting from 2 Feb!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Mar 2014 02:08

Published on Mar 06, 2014
By Mohd Faisal Fareed
Don’t pin hopes on third front: Sharad Yadav

Lucknow: JD(U) president Sharad Yadav Wednesday urged his workers not to have high expectations from the third front and said he may form another front if his party members don’t get a chance to contest Lok Sabha polls.

The front was constituted last month after 11 non-Congress, non-BJP parties came together to fight the elections together.

The JD(U) chief’s announcement is likely to come as a jolt to his allies, including SP chief Mulayam Chief Yadav, who has been eyeing a bigger national role.

Addressing party workers at a closed door meeting of the state executive committee in Lucknow, Sharad Yadav said, “Don’t have much expectations (from the third front). At the moment, the two parties (Congress and BJP) are engaged in their qawwali, which was given too much importance, so I also initiated one more qawwali. I am an expert in such work… bahut asha mat lagao (don’t pin high hopes).”

He also told party workers they are free to contest Lok Sabha elections in UP. “The arrangement of the third front is restricted to Delhi and no setting has been done at a local level. Those who want to contest polls should submit their applications,” he added.

“There are three ways — either there will be some adjustment in the third front, another is going alone in the polls. Lastly, if nothing materialises, we will form another front,” he said, reminding workers that the JD(U) had contested the 2009 Lok Sabha polls in UP.

So much for Third Front unity!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Mar 2014 02:12

ramana wrote:Hindu had an article about how AIADMK-Left front alliance has collapsed in one month starting from 2 Feb!

Seems Amma was not willing to give more than 1 seat each to CPI-M and CPI. They had in the past fought on 3 each. So seat negotiations have collapsed.

It's not clear what Amma has in mind! Left parties would have been the ones providing the glue for any Third Front. If she is unwilling to accommodate them, then she is not taking Third Front that seriously.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Mar 2014 02:19

Published on Mar 06, 2014
By B. Kolappan Sruthisagar Yamunan
Stitching alliances still a difficult task in TN

The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Wednesday announced April 24 as the date of Lok Sabha polls for Tamil Nadu. The parties attempting to stitch alliances, however, continued to confront hurdles in seat-sharing, with some finding it hard to even openly disclose who the constituents of their respective fronts were.

While the AIADMK-Left alliance is in doldrums, the DMK was unable to finalise seat allotment to Viduthalai Chiruthaikal Katchi. Even though the Dalit party, which had asked for three reserved and two general constituencies, has come down from its claim and sought two constituencies — Chidambaram and Villupuram — allotted for it in the 2009 polls, the DMK leadership is not ready to give more than one seat.

Another ally, the Indian Union Mulsim League, was allotted the Vellore constituency after a lot of persuasion.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), on the other hand, was expected to declare its electoral pact on Wednesday, as last-minute reversals saw party leaders getting into a huddle on Tuesday night. Sources said a unilateral announcement by BJP leaders on Tuesday about a press conference to reveal the alliance irked the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), which insisted that no formal disclosure be made without its consent.

In consequence, the press conference failed to transpire on Wednesday. Instead, BJP Tamil Nadu president Pon Radhakrishnan and senior leader L. Ganesan rushed to New Delhi to meet party president Rajnath Singh, but he was away in Chhattisgarh.

A highly-placed source in the party told The Hindu that the deadlock in seat-sharing continued. As a last-ditch effort, the BJP may relinquish seats in its pocket to accommodate the DMDK.

“The problem is with the numbers. The meeting with Mr. Singh has been planned to see if we could solve the issue by giving a seat or two from our share. We have also requested the PMK to reconsider their demand as the DMDK is adamant on at least 16 seats,” said the leader on condition of anonymity. DMDK founder Vijayakant discussed the issue with party leaders at a meeting at the party headquarters here on Wednesday.

The BJP’s request was confirmed by PMK sources, who said the party’s administrative council would meet in Tindivanam on Thursday to discuss the situation. This would be chaired by party founder S. Ramadoss. “There is an overlap in preference of constituencies with the DMDK. These are Arani, Arakonam, Krishnagiri, Salem and Villupuram. The BJP leadership asked us to make adjustments to make the alliance possible,” said a senior PMK functionary.

Meanwhile, a senior Congress leader confirmed that the party high command had initiated parleys with the DMDK leadership over the last two days. There have been attempts to approach the DMK also. “The response has not been very sanguine. But we are trying our best. They have asked us to wait till Saturday,” said a Member of Parliament.

Incredible: Vijayakanth demanding 16 seats for itself, and BJP considering giving it to him! Is the drunken so good in Poker?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Mar 2014 02:37

Pee Vee ‏@PingVond 8h
OK, now that there's some mvt., lemme give few inputs that I got (still not corroborated) - ADMK/BJD coming to NDA, TMC/SP coming to UPA.

**************

It seems many outside powers are busy putting together the various alliances in India.

TMC and SP going into UPA!!! Mamata and Neta both taking orders from USA/Pakis/Saudis, I would presume.

Mayawati was just not willing to ally with Congress. No vote transferability there. Netaji must have been desperate, so Azam Khan got to decide the course, especially with Yadavs dumping the Neta. Mamata seem to be totally in the hands of the Mullahs. However if Mamata allies openly with UPA, many in WB may be willing to test BJP as well.

ADMK and BJD could be Trojan horses in NDA. Important would be for BJP to get good number of seats in TN and OR to fight on, if the alliances are going to be pre-poll as well.

Naveen Patnaik may not have a choice. CBI sword may be dangling over him!

Hope BJP gets 272 on its own!

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 06 Mar 2014 02:43

^^SP and BSP, even if neither joins the UPA, can always be counted on for support because of CBI threats to both head honchos. At this point it is better to just count the UPA + Turd Front as one single block. This is what the BJP is truly facing and what has me worried. Getting the BJD and the ADMK to join the NDA can be a huge boost, if it is possible.

272 for BJP alone is of course wishful thinking.

I'm not too bothered about TMC joining UPA. Mamata is a double edged sword. She'll get you a decent number of MP's and then demand 1 or 2 ministries which she will proceed to completely f*** up in addition to making your life miserable in the LS after the govt. takes office. If the NDA actually does come to power, it better not have the loony queen in it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Mar 2014 03:32

RajeshA, The actions of JJ and MK towards their allies shows the shrinking space for those allies in TN. Hence their unilateral stands. BJP action to somehow rope in DMDK shows they want to win. But if DMDK wants to go to Congress nothing to stop that except the national trend regardless of D4 self goals is for NaMo.
So phir uske baad?

TMC/SP both made noises in Lok Sabha during the AP division vote but walked out without voting. I am coming to think they both are massa hands in India.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 06 Mar 2014 04:01

ramana wrote:
TMC/SP both made noises in Lok Sabha during the AP division vote but walked out without voting. I am coming to think they both are massa hands in India.

Sugta Bose got ticket from TMC. Also, it always bothered me how Muslims switched to TMC side leaving LF. Now, it's clear who managed that shift.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 06 Mar 2014 04:20

BJP-led NDA to sweep UP, Bihar in Lok Sabha election: CSDS opinion poll

With just a month to go before the voting begins for 16th Lok Sabha election, a poll survey conducted by CSDS projects that BJP-led NDA would sweep Lok Sabha election in the two crucial States- Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In Uttar Pradesh the BJP is predicted to win 41-49 seats.

In Bihar, the BJP-LJP combine would secure between 22 and 30 seats in Bihar if the polling was held today, the opinion poll said. Another key player ruling JDU, which had won 20 seats in 2009 when it was in alliance with the BJP, would decimate between 4-8 seats in the State.

Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD is projected to stand between 2-6 seats while the Congress is also predicted to be in the same position.

The survey says that the BJP would secure 38 per cent of vote share, Congress would poll 13 per cent, RJD is projected to get 12 per cent while ruling JDU is projected to secure 20 per cent votes.

Is this a credible poll?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 06 Mar 2014 04:21

5forty3's latest post is quite an interesting read:
Sonia Gandhi: The Last Mughal of the Congress

Realizing the limitations of her political talent and electoral charisma early in her political innings (probably when Pawar rebelled in the late 90s), Sonia has been running the Congress show by simply letting other Congressmen rule and loot as per their own whims and fancies. What this had created is an artificial buoyancy of the Congress party which simply prospered electorally for 10 years just by the virtue of creating mutually beneficial regional and sub-regional ecosystems of individual Congressmen of various hues and shapes. This electoral model had its limitations, for it could succeed only as long as a weak and pliant opposition cohabited in the same Lutyen’s sphere of Dilli. The other factor that kept Congress viable was the secularism bogie which had so many adherents to its tenets that the entire political spectrum would eventually remain subservient to the Congress’s cause of continuing to rule Dilli.