Bharat Rakshak

Senior member of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) National Executive, Subramanian Swamy has called for a strategic partnership among India, China and the United States to promote world peace.

Speaking at the 2015 World Peace Forum Conference hosted by Tsinghua University, Dr. Swamy said that a new global power paradigm has emerged. It is underscored by the US, China and India jointly accounting for 43 per cent of the global population, leadership in GDP contribution, in PPP rates of exchange, and possession of the three largest armed forces. The three countries have also emerged as the drivers of global economic growth.

Dr. Swamy, who has also been the Chairman of the BJP Committee for Strategic Action, stressed that the new paradigm shift demands the movement of “the post-War 1945 global power structure ossified presently in the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, each holding a veto to meet the exigencies of the pre-1945 international issues of conventional warfare, to a new dispensation of international power structure in which China and India, particularly the latter because it have unfairly denied its due place, have to recognise for the new status as emergent economies of global reach.”

The rise of religion-based terrorism dominated by radical religion-driven forces and which is facilitated by cyber technology, particularly computer websites, and internet banking, reinforces the emergence of a new paradigm in the partnership of nations, Dr. Swamy observed.

Arjun wrote: Swamy's suggestion is the right idea at the right time... Makes far more sense than the stupidly anachronistic UN Security Council.

The holdout here is China - it needs to decide soon whether it is going to acknowledge the future or continue to childishly play spoilsport.

I thought it was evident that this is the right idea from India's POV...

The only question that matters is whether Swamy's suggestion is in our interests and whether we gain from his bringing this up to world attention at the current juncture.

Tuvaluan wrote:Swamy says a lot of cr@p on days that end with a "y", but that is neither here nor there. The question is whether his global-super-threesome notion is supported by existing facts or not. So what are the data points that indicate to you that swamy is not full of it, and that China will find it in its own interests to strengthen a threesome?

Let me repeat the issue of prime concern as far as I am concerned - is it in Indian interests for Swamy and others to make a rational case for the new world order, like he did in Beijing? Y/N .

schinnas wrote: Atleast Cheen will grudgingly accept a twosome for next few decades but post 2050, they will aim for to be the unrivalled superpower of the world.

Tuvaluan wrote:The new world order will be shaped by power and influence. Period.

For all your pretense of "UN is so useless", you seem to think that the world order is just a matter of making a great speech in the UN and "making a case" for it. No. The case is made by actions and their consequences.

And this power and influence will be primarily driven by economics. Period.

Not really...I happen to think that the world order is just a matter of economics. Geo-economics is the name of the game. Swamy is just giving advance intimation of what most economic experts are already betting on, based on current trends. I think his banging on this drum (as long as he does this in refined and erudite fashion) will be useful for opening the eyes of the general public and old-style 'geo-strategy experts'.

Tuvaluan wrote: Keep in mind that China views itself as a world power with the ability to run rough shod over countries like India and everyone in its neighbourhood.

And that is precisely the point. By 2050, the economic gap between India and China would have narrowed very significantly. And China, India, US would be three economies head and shoulders above any other nation. All economic analysts analyzing scenarios for 2050 are agreed on this point.

Tuvaluan wrote:No. You can't point to trends and indicators as facts --- since when has extrapolation ever been a valid basis for predicting reality? A lot of sh!t can go down in 35 years -- just put yourself back in 1980 and see if you would have been able to predict any of what happened since at that point in time, to see what I mean. India has a lot of young unemployable people, with no education even if they have college degrees, while china is significantly ahead on that front -- that means in a decade, India will have a whole lot more morons in charge of things than china has. Do you think that is something that will not make a difference? The point I am trying to make here is that you cannot point to projections more than a couple of years to make predictions. Certainly not 35 years, as you are doing.

That is akin to looking up the right college for the impending child right after coitus.

This might be based on hindsight, but events over the last century or more are quite predictable, actually...

Japan started liberalizing in 1870s, Asian Tigers in 1960s, China in 1979, India in 1991.

You don't seem to be as familiar with economics and the host of firms making their living trying to predict various economic scenarios. There is basic demographics - China is pretty much doomed due to its one-child policy of the past that is going to have its economic effect starting next few years.

Swamy's message is consistent with this aim.

Tuvaluan wrote:nonsense. The end of cold war was definitely not a certainty in 1980, so I suggest you start being more intellectually honest.

China has a billion people, most of whom are capable of having sex and creating little chinese. Are you saying that is not the case? Because, otherwise, you have no point to make here.

So you are willing to spout absolute horsesh!t because you think this swamy has it all figured out. That's just charming. I see where you are coming from.

Surely they can and the economic results of all that fertility will become visible from 2070 or 2080 onwards - unfortunately they are not going to be able to change by much the likely impact of demographics on economy of 2050.

At the Saarc summit in Kathmandu in 2003, the heads of government proclaimed: “To give effect to the shared aspirations for a more prosperous South Asia, the (Saarc) leaders agreed on the vision of a phased and planned process, eventually leading to a South Asian Economic Union.”

India’s regional economic integration has been far slower in South Asia than what has transpired in its relations with Asean, with whom India has concluded free trade agreements (FTAs) in both goods and services.

Moreover, India has concluded comprehensive economic cooperation agreements, going well beyond an FTA, with Japan and South Korea. Despite the conclusion of a Saarc FTA, Pakistan has placed crippling trade restrictions on Indian exports and made a farce of pious declarations to establish an economic union in South Asia. There is no realistic reason to believe this will change in the foreseeable future.

Pakistani obstacles

Pakistan’s determination to torpedo South Asian regional cooperation was starkly manifested in its opposition to India’s proposal for launching a satellite for exclusive use by Saarc members. Mercifully, the enthusiasm shown by other members forced Pakistan to eventually fall in line.

Apart from trade, there are two other crucial features that accelerate regional cooperation —connectivity and energy cooperation, including interlinking of electricity grids. The 2014 Saarc summit in Kathmandu spoke of increasing regional cooperation in areas ranging from connectivity and energy, to terrorism and telecommunications.

Obviously, Pakistan has no intention of expanding cooperation in any of these areas. It blocks road connectivity between India and Afghanistan. Despite facing severe power shortages, it has rejected offers from India to supply electricity. It sends the likes of Ajmal Kasab to engage in terrorism in India and provides a haven to the likes of Dawood Ebrahim and Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi.

New Delhi has now moved ahead on measures that will promote regional cooperation, bypassing Pakistan. Connectivity with Afghanistan is now being sought through the Iranian port of Chahbahar.

At a recent ministerial meeting in Bhutan, the transport ministers of India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh concluded a significant motor vehicle agreement, laying the framework for seamless movement of passenger, personal and cargo vehicular traffic among these countries. Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari said the agreement would “allow motor vehicles of all categories in our countries to move freely in our region”.

Making other connections

India and its eastern neighbours envisage a massive project, including 30 priority transport connectivity corridors, requiring investment of around $8 billion. Initial estimates suggest that such corridors could potentially increase sub-regional trade by 60 per cent. The Asian Development Bank has expressed interest in funding such projects.

It remains to be seen if the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will adopt a similarly positive approach. As relations with Bangladesh improve, the prospects for land and maritime connectivity with our north-eastern States, through Bangladesh, appear increasingly bright.

The prospects for energy cooperation with our eastern neighbours are immense. Efforts made over the past year have helped create an environment to tap into Nepal’s vast hydro-electric potential of 83,000 MW. Barely 600 MW of this potential is now being utilised. While independent Indian power producers from the private sector are in the process of negotiating agreements to generate around 11,000 MW, delays could arise because of political uncertainties in Nepal.

Similar considerations could cause delays in major inter-governmental projects such as the 5,600-MW Pancheshwar multipurpose project. Grid connectivity between India and Nepal is also set to expand. At the same, time hydro-electric projects in Bhutan are being expeditiously completed, with a target of 30,000 MW by 2030.

The prospects for developing an eastern electricity grid linking India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh are bright, as grid connections have also been established between Bangladesh, and Tripura and West Bengal. India will supply Bangladesh 1,100 MW of power from West Bengal and Tripura by the end of this year.

Moreover, implementation has already begun on a 1,320-MW thermal power station in Bangladesh, at an estimated cost of $1.2 billion. The project is being executed by a JV of India’s public sector National Thermal Power Corporation and the Bangladesh Power Development Board.

Arunachal Pradesh has huge hydroelectric potential. The State government is seeking to conclude agreements for some 42 hydroelectric projects with an estimated capacity of 27,000 MW.

Construction on the Upper Salang hydroelectric project with an estimated capacity of 12,000 MW has commenced. Hopefully, environmental challenges to these projects will be expeditiously addressed.

India is planning to take forward its proposals for land connectivity agreed to in Bhutan, by fashioning a similar agreement with Myanmar and Thailand, by December 2015.

Going beyond Saarc

A proposal to provide road connectivity to Sri Lanka through a bridge and an underwater tunnel is under consideration. This would complete an ambitious programme for a trans-Asian road and transport network across the Bay of Bengal. Project financing from the ADB, which will be competing with the AIIB, could be considered.

New bus services were inaugurated and made operational during the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Nepal and Bangladesh. There are also proposals under consideration for an India-Sri Lanka high voltage DC grid, linking either Madurai or Tuticorin in Tamil Nadu, with Anuradhapura or Puttalam in Sri Lanka.

We could then see an electricity grid linking India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Thailand — all members of BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). This would be akin to the North American electricity grid, linking the US, Canada and Mexico.

In these circumstances, New Delhi should recognise that the only realistic route to economic integration in its neighbourhood lies primarily on the east, along and across the Bay of Bengal.

Structures other than Saarc need to be fashioned for cooperation across the Arabian Sea with island states such as the Maldives, Seychelles and Mauritius.

We can pay lip service to Saarc, but have to recognise that it is not the forum for any meaningful cooperation. New regional architecture has to be crafted, to meet the challenges posed by China’s land and maritime silk routes.

The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan

Faced with growing isolation and hostility from the US and its western allies, Myanmar’s military rulers turned to China for economic and military assistance. As reports emerged of Chinese military bases and monitoring facilities across Myanmar, in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, concern grew in India. I raised our concerns with a senior minister from Myanmar. He replied: “You have nothing to worry about. I may go to China for weapons and support, but I have to go for salvation to Bodh Gaya.” Not surprisingly, even when isolated, Myanmar provided no naval bases to China and widened its diplomatic options by joining Asean.

Can we leverage our Buddhist heritage to promote India’s strategic interests across the eastern neighbourhood? Do we have the facilities at these heritage sites? Can we become a tourist destination that caters not just to Americans and Europeans, but also to our increasingly cash-rich eastern neighbours?

Sorry state

Describing the facilities for Buddhist pilgrims in India, particularly in Bodh Gaya, the US-based Bhutanese scholar Dzongsar Jamyang Khyentse Rinpoche remarked: “Whatever the historical antecedents, today’s sad reality is that the government and people of Nepal, India and Bihar are notoriously poor hosts to hundreds of thousands of pilgrims who come here every year to pay homage and respect to the life and teachings of Gautama Buddha.”

Referring to India “squandering” its Buddhist heritage Khyentse observed: “India and Nepal gave the world one of its most precious resources — the Buddha. Yet neither country truly values this extraordinary legacy, let alone taking pride in it.” Buddhist scholars note that the even the historic Nalanda University, which attracted scholars from Tibet, China, Korea and Central Asia for centuries before being razed to the ground by Bakhtiyar Khilji in 1193, has adopted a syllabus that virtually excludes teachings on Buddhist heritage.

In marked contrast, China, which endeavoured to discard its religious heritage during the Mao era, opened up in the 1970s. There are now emerging signs of Buddhist revival, although under strict state control. China today boasts the richest collection of Buddhist heritage sites.

The Unesco World Heritage sites in China include the Mogao Caves in Gansu province, Longmen Grottoes in Henan, Dazu rock carvings near Chongqing, and the Leshan Giant Buddha, carved out of a hillside and looking down on a confluence of three rivers. There can be no comparison of the quality of facilities available to Buddhist pilgrims, tourists and scholars in China and the crude facilities we have in India.

India’s poor showing

When members of the Thai royalty or others visit Bodh Gaya and other Buddhist sites and pilgrimage centres in India, they cannot help noticing the poor quality of infrastructure and tourist facilities compared to what’s available back home. The entire Thai landscape in tourist havens such as Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Authiyya (Ayodhya) is lit up with Buddhist shrines.

Likewise, in Cambodia, the magnificent and 12th century Hindu temple in Angkor Wat is respected, preserved and cherished, like Buddhist shrines elsewhere in the country. In Myanmar, the gold-plated pagodas in Yangon, Mandalay and elsewhere and the 2,200 Buddhist temples and shrines constructed between the 9th and 12th century in Pagan are preserved with pride. Tourists are warmly welcomed. These traditions are also observed meticulously in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

There are today an estimated 600 million Buddhists in the world. China alone has an estimated population of between 220 and 240 million Buddhists. This number will inevitably rise, as its society becomes more open with the passage of time.

This is, however, a matter that a one-party Communist dictatorship will tread on warily. It was, after all, a Polish Pope who set the stage for the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact and ultimately the unravelling of the Soviet Union.

In these circumstances, India’s Act East policies will receive a boost if it acts imaginatively in building infrastructure, which will serve as a catalyst for increasing Buddhist tourism, and promoting academic and other exchanges on the life and message of the Buddha.

With Nalanda University focusing, according to its former chancellor, on “secular” education, the University for Buddhist and Indic Studies in Sanchi needs to step in expeditiously as the country’s premier institution for Buddhist Studies.

Time to spruce up

A serious effort will have to be mounted by New Delhi, in partnership with the concerned State governments, to develop India as the Asian epicentre for Buddhist Tourism and Studies. Connectivity has to be established and improved through road, rail and air, linking Buddhist sites starting from Lumbini on the Indo-Nepal border, and heritage sites such as Bodh Gaya, Bharhut, Amaravati, Shravasti, Sankashaya, Nalanda and Rajgir, together with other commemorative monuments in Sanchi, Amaravati, Ajanta, Ellora, Kanheri and Karli.

Gujarat is also dotted with Buddhist heritage sites in Vadnagar, Taranga Hills, Bharuch, Khambhalida, Junagadh, Sana, Talaja and Siyot. There are thousands of pilgrims from neighbours like Sri Lanka and Myanmar who will visit pilgrim sites, provided relatively cheap ferry and road transport services are available. At the same time, India would also be well advised to carry out a detailed study on facilitating high-end tourists who may wish for more comfortable surroundings, for visits that combine pilgrimage with holiday. In Thailand, for instance, pilgrimage is combined with golf by many high income tourists from countries such as Japan and South Korea!

Developing India as the epicentre for Buddhist pilgrimage and tourism will receive external funding and support if the countries of East and Southeast Asia are associated as partners. There would be substantial interest if foreign investment in tourism infrastructure is combined with offers by India for the governments of Buddhist countries to construct temples and pagodas portraying their distinct national architectural styles, in select Buddhist heritage sites in India. This is an issue which should be discussed individually and collectively with Asean members, and even raised at the East Asia Summit.

All this will require an imaginative effort by the Union and State governments, in partnership with the domestic tourism industry and their foreign counterparts.

Not only are the foreign policy benefits of such measures self-evident, the tourism generated will immensely boost local employment across vast tracts of India. A detailed roadmap and action plan to achieve these objectives are, however, essential to move ahead.

The writer is a former high commissioner to Pakistan

The interplay of India, US and China "is among the key factors that will determine the strategic balance in Asia and beyond", said foreign secretary S. Jaishankar. In two back-to-back speeches, India's top diplomat has laid out the drivers of the Modi government's foreign policy.

Delivering the IISS-Fullerton lecture in Singapore on Monday, Jaishankar said the "transition in India is an expression of greater self-confidence. Its foreign policy dimension is to aspire to be a leading power, rather than just a balancing power. Consequently, there is also a willingness to shoulder greater global responsibilities. This was demonstrated recently in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations in Yemen and Nepal. It is also reflected in our role in peace-keeping and in keeping the maritime commons safe and secure. And it is affirmed by India's active participation in important global negotiations."

Over the weekend, Jaishankar, releasing a book by C. Raja Mohan, said the term "'Neighbourhood First' has a clear self-explanatory message. Even a shift from 'Look East' to Act East" is not without its meaning." The themes of"greater connectivity, stronger cooperation and broader contacts" dominate India's engagement with the neighbourhood."Even in a short span of time, some results are already evident. In the case of Bangladesh, it includes the settlement of the land boundary and major connectivity and infrastructure initiatives. With Nepal, the long-standing potential for hydro-electric power is beginning to be tapped. India was not only the first responder during the earthquake but also the principal contributor to its reconstruction efforts. With Bhutan, a traditionally strong relationship has been further consolidated."

Beyond the immediate neighbourhood, he said, countries appear to be more"ready to respond to a more business-like India." He highlights India's new style of a"regional approach to engagement, reflected in Prime Minister's recent visits to the Indian Ocean, Northeast Asia and Central Asia. Summit level meetings with Pacific Islands and Africa will take place in India this year."

The bottomline of India's foreign policy, Jaishankar said, is that its prepared to play the role of a growing power in the world, and is prepared to think afresh, even discard the dominant philosphies of non-alignment and "strategic autonomy" of the 20th century."India engages the world with greater confidence and assurance. It does so with the intent of ensuring stronger growth, greater connectivity, closer integration and deeper harmony. It wants to expand its comonalities and manage its differences. It is prepared to shoulder greater responsibility and expects that this would be duly reflected in the structure of the international order. With specific reference to India's ties with the US and China, we approach them both positively. In doing so, we look beyond the 20th century orthodoxies."

Therefore, the PM's personal outreach is an aspect of Indian diplomacy. India, he said, has done away with"reactive diplomacy" -- no longer will India deal with single regions with a one-size-fits-all strategy -- the new view will enable India to go beyond taking"an integrated view of regions where local balances sometimes offer advantages to be exploited."

Giving a glimpse of the work underway within the foreign ministry, Jaishankar said,"in its implementation, (the new foreign policy) overcomes the silos that are a particular bane of our working style."

SSridhar wrote:For diplomacy with a Buddhist touch - G.Parthasarathy, Business Line

The bottomline of India's foreign policy, Jaishankar said, is that its prepared to play the role of a growing power in the world, and is prepared to think afresh, even discard the dominant philosphies of non-alignment and "strategic autonomy" of the 20th century."

Philip wrote:Our esteemed For. Sec. has forgotten the "Bear" in the room,Russia. Russia is a EurAsian giant,a superpower that possess more N-weapons than even the US and is reaming .modernizing and expanding its military forces all round at relentless speed under Vlad. Putin.

The Russo-Sino relationship is growing closer by the day,with BRICS,the SCO,etc. cementing ties further,even bringing in India into the fold.

It is the US which is trying to establish an understanding with China...at the expense of India,in a subordinate role,which makes the Chinese purr with pleasure.

Russia and China are to conduct naval exercises off the Japanese coast shortly with 20+ warships and subs.

The US wants to contain its mil ambitions,limiting it to being an eco colossus. In trying to cobble together an anti-Chinese mil front with Japan,Oz ,the Phillipines,and India also roped in, our For. Sec's assessment is fundamentally flawed!

As the Obama Administration considers unilateral sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine, business groups are waving red flags.

Both the US Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers have sponsored ads in US newspapers that suggest economic sanctions would really hurt US companies and jobs.
“I think US unilateral sanctions send much more of a political message than an economic one,” says Olga Oliker who researches Russia for the RAND Corporation.

Felix Ching December 2014
How effective are economic sanctions as a policy tool? The United States appeared to answer that question in two different ways over the past year. Just last week, President Barack Obama announced a major shift in U.S. policy toward Cuba. He would begin to remove longtime U.S. economic sanctions against Cuba. He contended that “fifty years have shown that isolation [had] not worked” and that the sanctions represented “a failed approach.”

EU, US sanctions on Russia: Big Oil stands with Moscow – for now (+video)

New Western sanctions on Russia over Ukraine early this week did little to deter the world's leading energy firms from moving ahead with major oil and gas projects in Russia. That could change as Washington and Brussels mull broader sanctions on Russia's energy industry.

Netherlands-based Royal Dutch Shell has a 27.5 percent stake in a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant majority owned by Russia's state-controlled gas company Gazprom. In February, the two companies agreed to a plan for expanding the LNG plant, which increases Russia's access to growing Asian markets. Earlier this month, Shell chief Ben van Beurden assured Russian President Vladimir Putin the first round of sanctions had not affected the company's plans to expand in Russia.

"We are very keen to grow our position in the Russian Federation," Mr. van Beurden said, as reported by Reuters. "We look forward with anticipation and confidence on a very long-term future here in Russia."

http://russia-insider.com/en/russias-ec ... think/6314
Russian Economy Is in Better Shape Than You Might Think
Western-imposed sanctions have clearly failed to bring down the Russian economy.

But if you truly want to see "weak" countries that defied US/Western sanctions for over 20 years and 50+ respectively and finally won ,are Iran and the N-deal and little Cuba! America has swallowed humble pie.So much for the so-called world's greatest mil. power.

Philip wrote:Our esteemed For. Sec. has forgotten the "Bear" in the room,Russia. Russia is a EurAsian giant,a superpower that possess more N-weapons than even the US and is reaming .modernizing and expanding its military forces all round at relentless speed under Vlad. Putin.

According To The Latest Data Russia's Demography Is Still In Sharp Decline

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomani ... p-decline/

CRITICAL 10 YEARS DEMOGRAPHIC POLICIES OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/defau ... ersion.pdf

Tuvaluan wrote:China has a billion people, most of whom are capable of having sex and creating little chinese. Are you saying that is not the case? Because, otherwise, you have no point to make here.

Philip wrote:Who's downplaying the PRC threat to India? I've been saying so for 25+ years now! Read my innumerable posts on BRF since inception. What I predicted has all come to pass.We were for two decades completely blndsided by China which diverted our attention to dealing with Pak.

If Russia is so weak and ineffective,how is it that it has swallowed up the Crimea and sabotaged the annexation of the UKR by the EU/NATO? It supplies energy to virtually the whole of Europe and has almost limitless mineral wealth . If it is so weak economically,why is it that western analysts and politicos say that sanctions against it have failed? There is av.recent report that the Russians in addition to their huge SSBN capability and expansion/modernization programme,are going to resume operations of their ICBM "missile trains".

Take BRICS for example and the growing importance of it. Why did the PM travel to the summit in Russia ? The Cold War warriors in 'foggy bottom" are like the dinosaurs of yore.Fiossilise dthinking in a multi-polar world.

The PM will also be travelling to Islamabad for the SAARC summit next year. I guess that means we're entering a strategic alliance with Pakistan now?Those who wish to ignore Russia may do so at their peril.