I am going to go out on a limb and throw out a controversial possibility.
There is a concerted effort by the "left" in America to demand that Obama withdraw from Afghanistan. The propaganda reaches new levels of shrillness every day. The most recent spate of reports have been about the US ambassador in Kabul specifically advising Obama not to send any more troops in response to McChrystal's request unless "Karzai proves he is committed to ending corruption"
Today Obama finds himself besieged. Republicans seem to be showing signs of a comeback following the VA and NJ gubernatorial elections. The economy is still in the doldrums, unemployment still high. And it seems that Obama will have to compromise with the right on healthcare, foregoing the public-option plan that the left wing of the democratic party wants to include.
If Obama compromises on a public option in the healthcare bill, he will have to appease the left wing of his voter base by throwing them something. I am sure that will be withdrawal from Afghanistan, cheered on by Joe Biden, Jim "Kool Aid" Jones and the entire "let Pakistan handle Afghanistan" brigade.
Therefore India is looking at the very likely possibility of Amirkhani withdrawal. Between the two options of (1) Continued American involvement that is centered around appeasement of Pakistan and (2) Amirkhani withdrawal it is obvious that the Amirkhans are absolutely useless to us as a strategic partner. Nothing they do in Afghanistan, can end up doing us any good.
I am going to propose that India hedge its bets by tying up with the SCO and developing a collective, mutually beneficial agreement on the post-WOT dispensation of Afghanistan before that happens.
India is already capable of reaching an understanding with two SCO members, Iran and Russia about the preferred dispensation of a post-WOT Afghanistan. Russia would have its sphere of influence in the North among the Uzbeks and Tajiks, and Iran in the West among the Hazaras. Both would share an interest, along with India, in preventing Wahhabi fundamentalism from using Afghanistan as a political base.
The problem is China and by extension Pakistan.
So I'm going to ask: is it possible to arrive at a consensus with China, Iran and Russia that, even if it isn't optimal, would better secure our interests in Afghanistan than investing as partners in a US strategy which is doomed either way?
China would be hostile to us of course, but with Iran and Russia pressuring them they may be convinced to accommodate our concerns in the greater common interest of preventing India from becoming America's ungli in SCO Asia.
In effect we would have to swallow our pride and make concessions to the Chinese, but we would have substantial leverage (the threat of becoming America's bridgehead in Asia) to try and minimize those concessions. We might have to give up Aksai Chin and Ladakh to the Chinese. In return, we would get guarantees backed up by Russia and Iran as leading SCO nations, that China would cease all military cooperation with Pakistan and all manner of support for the Pakistani position on J&K. China would also commit to refrain from interfering in Myanmar, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan as long as we fully acknowledged the legitimacy of Chinese sovereignty over Tibet and retracted all official recognition to the "Tibetan Government In Exile". China would commit to restricting its naval presence to east of the Straits of Malacca and we would restrict ourselves to its west. Iran and Russia would stand guarantor for any Chinese energy supply routes through the Indian Ocean, in the event of any future India-China dispute.
That sounds terrible, especially the part about giving up Aksai Chin and AP. But is it really more terrible than some hare-brained Manmohan-Musharraf Kashmir Plan of 2007, mandated by Amirkhan, which gives the terrorists of Mirpur and Punch and Neelam Valley full access to J&K state while forcing India to pull out our troops so that the remaining Hindus, Buddhists and Sikhs of J&K will have no protection whatsoever from the inevitable holocaust? What will we gain by paying that price... abandonment of AfPak by Amirkhan, and a re-establishment of Paki strategic depth in Afghanistan? Or more billions of dollars in cash to the Pakis so that they can continue to arm themselves against us?
Anyway, if bilateral problems between India and China could be solved under the aegis of the SCO as described above, could we hope for an Afghan solution that involved
1) Russian sponsorship of the Uzbek and Tajik homelands
2) Iranian sponsorship of the western Hazara homelands
3) A guarantee to China that no activity by Uighur separatists will be permitted.
4) Indian sponsorship of the Pakhtun regions, effected via the Zaranj-Delaram highway, Chahbahar port and overflight rights through Iran.
Pakistan, which is now milking every moment of its role as an indispensible Amirkhani asset, would then become Amirkhan's liability. The SCO plus India would join forces to ensure that it was shut out of Afghanistan. The Amirkhans could keep pouring money into the Pakistan hole and find that money sponsoring more Headleys and Padillas and Reids, until the futility of financing Pakistan becomes too obvious even for the Amirkhan junta to ignore.
Finally the TSPA would be abandoned to deal on its own with an endless civil war which limits its utility as a client state for either China or Amirkhan.
I'm not necessarily pushing the above scheme, in fact I'm still in the process of thinking it through and would welcome the collaboration of others. Please let me know what you think.