China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Jul 2011 07:30

wong wrote:New global hawk sized joined-wing UAV

Photoshop or fake.

Need more proof.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Jul 2011 10:44

APA: A Preliminary Assessment of Specular Radar Cross Section Performance in the Chengdu J-20 Prototype

APA: The Chengdu J-20: Peace in Our Time?

Don · Post by **Don** » 03 Jul 2011 10:57

Austin wrote:APA: A Preliminary Assessment of Specular Radar Cross Section Performance in the Chengdu J-20 Prototype

Overall, the stealth shaping of the J-20 prototype design is without doubt considerably better than that seen in the Russian T-50 PAK-FA prototypes

Don · Post by **Don** » 03 Jul 2011 11:29

shiv wrote:
wong wrote:New global hawk sized joined-wing UAV
Photoshop or fake.

Need more proof.

Everyone make your own conclusion....

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... cover.html

PICTURE: China's Global Hawk counterpart breaks cover
By Greg Waldron

China appears ready to reveal another of its developmental military aircraft, with new images having emerged showing what appears to be a high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned air vehicle.

Posted on the China Defense Mashup website, the aircraft was photographed at Chengdu airfield, where the J-20 stealth fighter also emerged late last year, shortly before making its surprise flight debut from the site in January.

China Defense Mashup speculates that the newly-spotted vehicle is the Xianglong: an intended counterpart to the USA’s Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 03 Jul 2011 12:02

Don wrote:
Austin wrote:APA: A Preliminary Assessment of Specular Radar Cross Section Performance in the Chengdu J-20 Prototype

Overall, the stealth shaping of the J-20 prototype design is without doubt considerably better than that seen in the Russian T-50 PAK-FA prototypes

nice link. clears several concepts . How ever the final results of rcs depends on the quality of radar absorb material of which we have no info . PAK-FA was not mean to be stealthier than 22 . But a combination of stelth , super maneuverability and agility. However what gave me shivers was the Chinese jet engine. where on earth did they steal that one from ?

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 03 Jul 2011 13:02

Don wrote:
Austin wrote:APA: A Preliminary Assessment of Specular Radar Cross Section Performance in the Chengdu J-20 Prototype

Overall, the stealth shaping of the J-20 prototype design is without doubt considerably better than that seen in the Russian T-50 PAK-FA prototypes

Take everything from ausairpower with a grain of salt. The writer has a very strong agenda of pushing the F-22 for Australia, and like half his articles are devoted to this end. So that will involve pumping up the J-20 of course as a threat. Similar to Cold War US propaganda about "Soviet Missile Gap".

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Jul 2011 13:07

my theory until we learn better is the J20 is using a version of D-30 engine of the foxhound. the massive amt of fuel and heavy internal ASMs it will need for the anti-CVBG role needs powerful engines.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Jul 2011 13:22

UBanerjee wrote:Take everything from ausairpower with a grain of salt. The writer has a very strong agenda of pushing the F-22 for Australia, and like half his articles are devoted to this end. So that will involve pumping up the J-20 of course as a threat. Similar to Cold War US propaganda about "Soviet Missile Gap".

Yes as far as larger motive goes he seems to be in favours of F-22 strongly but if you just look at technical analysis perspective he is quite good with that , most of his analysis on weapons system at APA is excellent , remember he was the first one to draw the red flag on JSF program management and not many believed him , now we know how badly the JSF program was managed.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Jul 2011 13:41

Don wrote: Everyone make your own conclusion....
PICTURE: China's Global Hawk counterpart breaks cover
<snip>

China Defense Mashup speculates that the newly-spotted vehicle is the Xianglong: an intended counterpart to the USA’s Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk.

The news item that I am India's counterpart to Brad Pitt will be declared OT on this forum. But it is relevant.

It is one thing for me to advertise myself that way. But it's a different matter to show that I will perform that way.

There two messages here and one is pure propaganda.

Message 1: "China is designing a UAV that appears state of the art." My reaction to this message is "Well done China. Way to go"

Message 2: China is designing a Chinese equivalent of Global Hawk. This is the propaganda half of the message. When I read that part of the message a bell in my mind goes "ding-a-longa-dong-a long" and my reaction is "

wtf? Are these Chinese trying to make a unique and original UAV or are they merely in a game of my dingdong is longer than American dingdong? "

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 03 Jul 2011 15:02

Austin wrote:
UBanerjee wrote:Take everything from ausairpower with a grain of salt. The writer has a very strong agenda of pushing the F-22 for Australia, and like half his articles are devoted to this end. So that will involve pumping up the J-20 of course as a threat. Similar to Cold War US propaganda about "Soviet Missile Gap".
Yes as far as larger motive goes he seems to be in favours of F-22 strongly but if you just look at technical analysis perspective he is quite good with that , most of his analysis on weapons system at APA is excellent , remember he was the first one to draw the red flag on JSF program management and not many believed him , now we know how badly the JSF program was managed.

I agree, its just that lines like this:
Overall, the stealth shaping of the J-20 prototype design is without doubt considerably better than that seen in the Russian T-50 PAK-FA prototypes and, even more so, than that seen in the intended production configuration of the United States' F-35 Joint Strike Fighter2,3.

The J-20 design appears to be mostly constructed around the stealth shaping design rules employed in the US Air Force F-22A Raptor

Throw up my red flags. The man has a financial stake in the Raptor acquisitions.

Also while the analysis is thorough, it is an analysis based on a few stock photos released by Chinese govt. and some "well-founded" speculation about the state of Chinese materials research. It seems to me that an in-depth analysis is premature at this point given the data accessible to open source. It is kind of like China releases a photo of their new football star and from that photo you write a long analysis comparing him to Diego Maradona based on body proportions and speculating about his fantastic control of the ball. His RCS simulation is still interesting to be sure.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 03 Jul 2011 15:24

Singha wrote:my theory until we learn better is the J20 is using a version of D-30 engine of the foxhound. the massive amt of fuel and heavy internal ASMs it will need for the anti-CVBG role needs powerful engines.

could you eleborate how u concluded it to d 30 ? I do know that it was one of the most powerful engines around and chinese have il 76 from which they could have copied it . If indeed it is such a powerful engine the airframes better be super good.

@ ubannerjee i agree that that aus site is pitching for raptors . But the technical stuff on RCS was indeed good.

Don · Post by **Don** » 03 Jul 2011 15:49

UBanerjee wrote:
Take everything from ausairpower with a grain of salt. The writer has a very strong agenda of pushing the F-22 for Australia, and like half his articles are devoted to this end. So that will involve pumping up the J-20 of course as a threat. Similar to Cold War US propaganda about "Soviet Missile Gap".

I thought F-22 will stop production soon and not allowed to be exported.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Jul 2011 16:35

UBanerjee wrote:I agree, its just that lines like this:
Overall, the stealth shaping of the J-20 prototype design is without doubt considerably better than that seen in the Russian T-50 PAK-FA prototypes and, even more so, than that seen in the intended production configuration of the United States' F-35 Joint Strike Fighter2,3.

Actually it just depends on what their respective forces have asked for , the YF-23 was more stealthy compared to YF-22 , the latter was better maneuverable and was more production ready from LM prospective. Lockheed has generational experience in LO aircraft

The PAK-FA is more of manouverability , range ,payload and stealth , the ruskies and TSAGI took the flanker lifting body design something they knew very well and made something better , may be RuAF specs have asked for these qualities then for all aspect stealth.

J-20 seems to me more of payload , range and equaly of stealth and less of manouveribility , its possible PLAAF could have asked for these qualities over manouveribility and kinetic ability.

Personally i like all these aircraft but i like the PAK-FA approach , because in Meter band and L band all 3 aircraft will have various radar returns and will be detectable , same for JSF , JSF is more about multirole capability with the same frame and payload and less about ubber stealth because that what USAF needed from mass produced fighter which can be maintained in field.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Jul 2011 17:21

There is no one solution fits all approach to a great aircraft - it is always a compromise. The F-22 is a super beast and it shows American technological dominance that the first service ready model was revealed in the late 1990s. The US are a full 20 years ahead of all competition. The French and Europeans who are not in direct competition have come up with some fairly nifty tech themselves and have not chosen a "US route". Russia was the mother of all competitors to the US and often drove the US to strive harder. Russia does not appear to be attempting an all aspect superstealthy aircraft. In any case the US is decades ahead in stealth tech - having flown and retired the F-117 and having developed the B-2.

It is somewhat amusing to see the Chinese do copies of US tech. There is no need to assume that the Chinese will do a bad job - but they are certainly openly copying and it seems that they like to create illusions by comparisons with the US before they show capability.

The shape of the F-22 and F-35 are only one aspect of their tech. More formidable are their electronic capabilities. And their pristine engines

One "unknown" that the good Prof Das talks about is the maintainability of stealth and the fact that internal weapons bays require the creation of "fat" aircraft and the fatter the aircraft the more external wetted" surface area that has to be maintained in pristine condition for stealth to work. Das has predicted that it is possible that extreme stealth may just go out of fashion and advises that India should experiment with stealth and not try and get into an "LCA saga" of producing a "stealthy aircraft" by developing too many new technologies from ground up.

Sorry - this is the Chin mil thread.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 03 Jul 2011 18:07

Shiv: While being skeptical and critical, one has to give it to the chinese for their will and effort in making investments and mistakes and create a learning experience for their MIC to create assets, that seek to be at par with western technology - across the board.

The western embargo on weapons is a blessing in disguise. Beg, borrow, steal or innovate - they are determined to get there. Maybe, they will not be successful in full measure but substantially so in years to come. This is commendable of the Chinese, for at some level an indigenous ability to produce, even if less perfect is more desirable than reliance on imports.

The question for India is are we making our own necessary investments for our MIC? The question is OT.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Jul 2011 21:24

ShauryaT wrote:Shiv: While being skeptical and critical, one has to give it to the chinese for their will and effort

No offence meant Shaurya - but I've heard this line too many times on BR. No Indian is ever able to chirp one critical word about the Chinese on this forum without being treated to a lecture on those lines. In anticipation of this I had put a disclaimer several pages ago and I suppose it was my mistake not to put it again and again - every time I say anything. On here we can criticize anything Indian. We can call Indians traitors, incompetents, losers, surrender monkeys etc. But the minute an objection is raised even in jest against something Chinese I get a lecture.

Why must that be so? I must point out that this Indian tendency irritates me a great deal.

Here is the disclaimer i posted many pages ago to try and avoid being being given a lecture for stating a viewpoint
Link

shiv wrote:To repeat what I know about Chinese military technology- I want to summarize this so that we all know and do not have to repeat these well known facts to each other.

China is rapidly progressing

Do not underestimate China

China is sitting on US$ 1 trillion

Quantity is quality

China is manufacturing world class electronics

You get what you pay for "You wan' cheap. You get cheap"

Helicopters, Planes, ships and chips may look like copies of Western or Russian stuff, but inside they are all different and far more advanced. The resemblance is purely coincidental.

ashi · Post by **ashi** » 03 Jul 2011 22:12

Innovative New Chinese UAV Emerges

The latest unmanned aircraft pictures from China show a reconnaissance truck with a joined wing and tail that could considerably increase range and payload and produce better handling at high altitudes.

U.S. analysts already are suggesting that the new Chinese UAV design — with its 60,000-ft. cruising altitude, 300-mi. radar surveillance range and low radar reflectivity if it uses the right composite structure — could serve as the targeting node for China’s anti-ship ballistic missiles. The ASBM threat against carriers finally has U.S. Navy officials worried.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 04 Jul 2011 10:17

shiv wrote: No offence meant Shaurya - but I've heard this line too many times on BR. No Indian is ever able to chirp one critical word about the Chinese on this forum without being treated to a lecture on those lines. In anticipation of this I had put a disclaimer several pages ago and I suppose it was my mistake not to put it again and again - every time I say anything. On here we can criticize anything Indian. We can call Indians traitors, incompetents, losers, surrender monkeys etc. But the minute an objection is raised even in jest against something Chinese I get a lecture.

Why must that be so? I must point out that this Indian tendency irritates me a great deal.

None taken Shiv. My point really was that the Chinese all out effort to create an MIC for themselves is commendable. Your line of posts sometimes can lead to a group think by others, not as tuned as you are, leading to a false impression of forum views of the state of China's MIC. At least that is the impression, I gather.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Jul 2011 11:13

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14009910

china was browbeating japan last yr by withholding sales of rare earths. now japan has found huge deposits on the sea floor near hawaii and tahiti .... costlier to exploit, but there are options now.

Vashishtha · Post by **Vashishtha** » 04 Jul 2011 11:33

Gotta agree, shiv, what the chinese created for themselves is really good.. Yea, quality may not be top notch but thev'e got a base for themselves.... Us constantly bad-mouthing chinese tech makes us little different from our own neighbors..
I dont think any civilization can grow without some self critique and learning from others....We too are on our way to an MIC, but far and I put complete trust in our indigenous systems, they are no less than any one else in the world, but that doesn't mean we don't learn some good tips from others....

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 04 Jul 2011 17:00

The really odd thing is the way we Indians tom tom our freedom and openness - which is largely true and something to be tom tommed alright - but because we are also scathingly critical of our own - the tremendous development work that is going on regarding mil tech in India - which is continuously posted on here is forgotten in our anxiety to caution fellow Indians to do nothing other than admire and fear China. As if every other Indian on BRF is so naive as to imagine that China is doing nothing and poses no risk. In fact it is just the opposite. Every Indian is not only shitting about China (ever since 1962) but imagines that no one else knows. How long are we going to carry on like this? At least on this forum where we tend to have well informed people.

And suddenly China has moved from bamboo curtain to openness - like a strip tease artiste taking off her bra - you get pictures of submarines behind a gate, stealth aircraft behind tree and a UAV behind a bush. As for us - we have no photo of LCH prototype 2. No photo of Prahar. No photo of Arihant. No photo of ADS. No photo of CABS AWACS. No photo of MALE UAV. No photo of rail mobile launchers of Agni. No real idea of which aircraft will actually carry which AAM. Clearlly SDREs too release only the information they want to release. Amazing for a so called "open society" isn't it?

And we like to think "Oh the Chinese are doing so much. Are we doing anything at all?" The impression that the Chinese are doing something and we are not doing anything is clearly erroneous if you read the news that comes on here day in and day out. The only difference is in the attitudes of the Chinese towards their own versus Indians towards their own. The Chinese exude confidence. We project diffidence and doubt. Any half assed strategic studies Indological sociologist will use this information about Indians to good effect. If I were Chinese - I would wait till India floats her ADS and publish Chinese plans to build 4 more aircraft carriers. The way to make Indians sh1t in their pants is to utilize their existing negative image of themselves and perpetuate it. Wait till Tejas/MMRCA is inducted and announce the test firing of a 250 km range AAM. It does not matter whether it is true or not - but as long as they are working with a body of Indians who are already scared of China - the thing to do is to keep them off balance and scared. I admire the Chinese more for that than their technological prowess.

Technology we understand. We have enough technologists who know what is what and where we stand and where we need to go. Sociology and psychology are our weak points. That has been used against us for decades. Chanakya is more dead among us that Sun Tzu among the Chinese. I am not saying the Chinese are bluffing all the time. But when they do bluff they bluff to create an effect that will cause Indians to flutter and quiver in their loincloths with fear and awe. That is Sun Tzu.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 04 Jul 2011 19:27

If the so called 'sneak peek' pics of various high-funda gizmos from Chinese MIC is not propaganda and an effort to scare/induce awe/fear then I have a white domed building to sell in Agra. I mean, come one, this is a nation which tracks the gmails of its citizens and is paranoid about security but some how, the secret pics from behind the bushes/fences/trees/spotting points float freely on the net. Chinese could hide these developments if they wanted to - but these so called 'fan-boy' sites are nothing but cat's paw for the regime. They are meant to create an aura and mystique - aura of some skunk-work like developments happening in Chinese MIC and mystique of a sleeping dragon - whose powers are not known fully but the urban legend is already there about its fearsome power. You have people leading the debate in a particular direction and there are enough who fall for such tactics hook, line and sinker. And then, an rban legen becomes mainstream story and what you have is an impression of a great dragon sitting silently but planning and biding its time and how it will rip everything apart when its time comes. Sadly, there are many who follow for such nonsense and end up dhoti-shivering!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 04 Jul 2011 19:46

Rohit - part of the problem is that much of Chinese effort - real or faked is aimed at equal equal with America. It is American sources who are putting up a constant barrage of "Watch out the Chinese are coming! Watch out the Chinese are coming!". My usual sources - relatives and friends who moved to America in the 1970s are all now telling ME about China (The Chinese are coming) as if I don't know. This is something that was absent a decade ago. Their talk used to be different. It was usually "Come to America. Become like America. See we don't have oppressive airline security queues. It's efficient here".

Compared with that the "Chinese are coming" noise in India is low. That somehow gives people the impression that India is asleep - which is nonsense. Indians have been soiling their langotis since 1962. Just because India is not joining the new and previously non existent American chorus that the Chinese are coming does not indicate lack of knowledge or concern.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 04 Jul 2011 19:54

shiv wrote:As if every other Indian on BRF is so naive as to imagine that China is doing nothing and poses no risk. In fact it is just the opposite. Every Indian is not only shitting about China (ever since 1962) but imagines that no one else knows. How long are we going to carry on like this? At least on this forum where we tend to have well informed people

I feared this is going OT. Why do you have to ascribe, what Indians think of themselves with regards to China on this thread. There is a place for it, however is it this thread?

Personally, what Indians have achieved so far is very commendable - critiques and improvements needed notwithstanding. These men and women who serve not only in the forces but various arms of the defense establishment have my sakshat pranams that they have chosen to serve - forsaking various opportunities available outside these establishments. The various technological achievements of these establishments is not lost on me. Our overall doctrine against China moving from one of "aggressive defense" to one of "deterrence" is an upgrade in our thinking. There are some (very few) who think we ought to upgrade it even further. So no one, needs to do dhoti shiver and those kinds should be rightly shown their place.

I come to this thread to learn about the status of all matters, as it relates to the Chinese military. What they mean for India and Indian status on comparable items would be welcome too, since this is BRF. It is a focused agenda, in my mind. Now, if post after post seeks to add piskology in it, then the danger is the piskology tends to replace the core agenda.

At least, I have a desire to learn a lot more on PRC military capabilities, to the extent possible, with their closed systems and smoke screens. This is again, just my read that much of the understanding of these capabilities of PRC come from western sources and as a result have a western filter. One has to dig deep to get to some India centric view points of PRC capabilities. Example: If anyone really understands the composition of PLA's second artillery corps, it will be easy to understand the kind of threat perceptions as it relates to India from the DF 21 and the older DF 11. But, much of the news tends to be about DF 31 and the JL series. At least, my hope is this thread can compile that type of information, which is hard to come by. PRC's increasing scale of indigenous investments is something to watch for. They have limited their imports - even from Russia and betting the farm on their nascent native industry. What these mean for us as our neighbors (TSP, BD, Burma, SL) build a defense relationship with the PRC is something to worry about.

Maybe, I should just lighten up. JMT.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 04 Jul 2011 20:07

rohitvats wrote:If the so called 'sneak peek' pics of various high-funda gizmos from Chinese MIC is not propaganda and an effort to scare/induce awe/fear then I have a white domed building to sell in Agra. I mean, come one, this is a nation which tracks the gmails of its citizens and is paranoid about security but some how, the secret pics from behind the bushes/fences/trees/spotting points float freely on the net. Chinese could hide these developments if they wanted to - but these so called 'fan-boy' sites are nothing but cat's paw for the regime. They are meant to create an aura and mystique - aura of some skunk-work like developments happening in Chinese MIC and mystique of a sleeping dragon - whose powers are not known fully but the urban legend is already there about its fearsome power. You have people leading the debate in a particular direction and there are enough who fall for such tactics hook, line and sinker. And then, an rban legen becomes mainstream story and what you have is an impression of a great dragon sitting silently but planning and biding its time and how it will rip everything apart when its time comes. Sadly, there are many who follow for such nonsense and end up dhoti-shivering!

There is a far simpler explanation to these peeks and shows instead of the all controlling "regime" that even controls the enthusiasm of its citizens - and control what information is "allowed" to be "released" in what order and by whom. Which part of some photograph or news is released. IF PRC has that level of deadly control, then it is truly scary of the efficiencies of this regime.

But, I think otherwise. Like any society, there is a mix of enthusiasm, leaks, chances taken by citizens, lack of enough systems and procedures and practices that can effectively secure some sites at all times and corruption that go to make up this unorganized release of information. The lack of openness and not enough English language information combines to give an effect of a big "Controlled Conspiracy". The explanation is simpler, IMO.

PRC does not have this level of "control" on information, not all of them. Behind this smoke there is fire, it is the nature of this fire, we have to understand.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 04 Jul 2011 20:21

ShauryaT wrote: Why do you have to ascribe, what Indians think of themselves with regards to China on this thread. There is a place for it, however is it this thread?

The reply is pertinent to this thread.

It is well known that the Chinese are making rapid technological and economic strides. It is also well known that on the internet and in the media the Chinese have used and continue to use deception, bluff and misinformation. In the last week we have read about the photoshopped officials inspecting roads and earlier this year was the TV news item in China with a scene from "Top Gun". Openly photoshopped images have been posted in this very thread.

In the process of trying to figure out what is reality and what is not, it is necessary to show healthy skepticism about information released from China. Showing that skepticism is NOT an indicator of blindness or delusion. This has been pointed out time and again on this very thread. Still - every time that happens some new person uninitiated with this thought process comes on and warns that ignoring China or or being complacent about China is wrong. That statement is a massive spoiler because it will not affect China's real technological developments - but it greatly aids the tongue-in-cheek bluffing that comes out of China.

We have to weigh information carefully. We need to question it for truth and accuracy. But the minute someone does that we need to learn not to blurt out the "Let's rather be nervous about China" hat. I had a flaming argument with one guy about this many pages ago. Later - every time I said something I put that disclaimer. And now we are back having the exact same discussion.

Don · Post by **Don** » 04 Jul 2011 20:59

ShauryaT wrote:
There is a far simpler explanation to these peeks and shows instead of the all controlling "regime" that even controls the enthusiasm of its citizens - and control what information is "allowed" to be "released" in what order and by whom. Which part of some photograph or news is released. IF PRC has that level of deadly control, then it is truly scary of the efficiencies of this regime.

But, I think otherwise. Like any society, there is a mix of enthusiasm, leaks, chances taken by citizens, lack of enough systems and procedures and practices that can effectively secure some sites at all times and corruption that go to make up this unorganized release of information. The lack of openness and not enough English language information combines to give an effect of a big "Controlled Conspiracy". The explanation is simpler, IMO.

PRC does not have this level of "control" on information, not all of them. Behind this smoke there is fire, it is the nature of this fire, we have to understand.

Well said, I think lots of pictures are taken by individual fan who are genuinely interested and enthusiatic about military stuff. You also have fan boy idiots who posts fake pictures just for the thrill of it. Its not some kind of giant conspiracy for scare mongering. Like you said even the CCP does not that kind of control on its citizens and frankly I don't think they care about what people in BR thinks.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 04 Jul 2011 21:07

Don wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:
There is a far simpler explanation to these peeks and shows instead of the all controlling "regime" that even controls the enthusiasm of its citizens - and control what information is "allowed" to be "released" in what order and by whom. Which part of some photograph or news is released. IF PRC has that level of deadly control, then it is truly scary of the efficiencies of this regime.

But, I think otherwise. Like any society, there is a mix of enthusiasm, leaks, chances taken by citizens, lack of enough systems and procedures and practices that can effectively secure some sites at all times and corruption that go to make up this unorganized release of information. The lack of openness and not enough English language information combines to give an effect of a big "Controlled Conspiracy". The explanation is simpler, IMO.

PRC does not have this level of "control" on information, not all of them. Behind this smoke there is fire, it is the nature of this fire, we have to understand.
Well said, I think lots of pictures are taken by individual fan who are genuinely interested and enthusiatic about military stuff. Its not some kind of giant conspiracy for scare mongering. Like you said even the CCP does not that kind of control on its citizens and frankly I don't think they care about what people in BR thinks.

Well well well. A bit of bluff here. Right here on this thread we have had people (Chinese) pointing out that some Chinese posters in internet fora are "known" for their accuracy whose photos/posts are more likely to be true.

Secondly I don't buy the crap that a photo of the J-20 taken from the end of the runway was taken by some "random enthusiast". Maybe not now - but fairly soon I will link photos that are are clearly "official releases" designed to hide some things and show other things taken from angle that no enthusiast will be allowed to access. Certain details are never seen and the faking of "behind a bush" and "behind a fence" is too laughably obvious. If you look at the writing of aviation writers on the net - it is an open fact that the chicom government uses some plants on the internet to release information in the guise of "enthusiast". If our friend Don is one of them - we won't know.

Let me make a comment that i have been wanting to make for a long time. When the first J-20 videos were released - many were from behind a fence on a road. Surely if that is a public road like the road outside HAL you should be hearing reports of proud and happy Chinese watching and reporting on events there. But nothing! Even that recent video is edited by a person who knows exactly how to edit videos (like I do) and has edited out humongous bits of footage. Enthusiast? Balls! No enthusiast would do that - its an official release to tickle people's fancy. And unlike the constant chatter on BR about what is happening in HAL. There is clearly controlled propaganda here and it would IMO be naive to believe that all this is "innocent enthusiasts". I have a tower for sale in Delhi by the way, standing by an ancient Iron pillar.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 04 Jul 2011 21:25

These photos are no enthusiast's luck:
http://a.abcnews.com/images/Blotter/ap_ ... 509_wg.jpg
http://images.defensetech.org/wp-conten ... _eagle.jpg

it is laughable that people deliberately show a bit of fence or barbed wire as if the make everyone think that it is some eager Chinese jingo.

OK let ne me if they can show the face of one jingo on that road outside the airfield with the fence and J-20 in the background? That won't happen. After all - with China being so open and all - no one should be worried about having his photo taken. The face after all can be covered.

It's a load of bullshit to say that the Chinese government is not using the internet for controlled release of information.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 04 Jul 2011 21:46

Shiv, I agree with your viewpoint.

I am a pre-partition kid and this has to do about China. In '62 I was staying in Secunderabad. Dad an aviation head. Our house a stone's throw away from the EME Centre. My dad's drinking buddies were from the IAF/IA. (And I have carried on that tradition of drinking and having buddies/family in all the three services) The story was grim as to what happened. Stories where the Chinese soldiers, when shot, were followed by another wave. With another wave following. Picking up the injured/dead comrade’s arms and ammunition and relentlessly attacking. A la Mao Ze Dung. Or more appropriately the Russian Army in the defence of Stalingrad where soldiers who turned around were shot!

Cut to a few years later. I do not remember but think it was ‘64. On my way by train to KGP to rejoin class. Picked up a magazine at the station. The magazine had an Indian Colonel on the cover.My memory fails me. Was it Newsweek or TIME or a local magazine?
It was about a battle in the Bomdila sector.

Settled into the compartment. A gentleman walked in. Looked bloody familiar. Tube light moment! It was the very same Colonel on the cover. A 36 hour trip led us both to forming a bond and he corroborated what was written in the article with a few more spicy details thrown in.

Here is the incident:

After '62 the Chinese wanted to test the waters as to our level of preparedness. MI picked up the sector and the post under Chinese scrutiny. The Colonel made his devious plan. If memory serves me correctly this was in ’64.

Said Colonel left two soldiers at the post with instructions to withdraw when they saw the Chinese approaching. Make enough noise to emulate normal strength and radio traffic.

The Chinese approached. SDREs withdrew. And as the Chinese soldiers started winding down they were soon being shot at by SDRE troops surrounding them.

What the Colonel had done was send his troops in an encircling manoeuvre with strict orders to avoid any contact with the Chinese enroute. Our troops were in sufficient strength to ensure that their backs were also covered, by troops facing outwards, in case there was another set of Chinese troops were on their way to consolidate. But the instructions were clear, that attack as soon as the Chinese feel they have “won” the post.

There were no Chinese survivors! Post “retaken”. Bloody nose given!

Same thing happened in ’71. We knew the time and date that the Pakis would try to Blitzkrieg us!

The point I am making here is that, as Shiv says, we do not have to shiver. We have to evaluate.

Separate the sugar from the sand.

Another thing which dismays me is that in a lot of posts, we keep saying that we do not have any humint assets.
My question to those who say that is, how do you know? Have you ever met anyone in MI? There never will be adverts in the papers for recruiting spies!

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 04 Jul 2011 22:02

rajanb ji: You may be referring to Nathu La and Chola incidents of 67?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Jul 2011 22:03

China bought Russian AL-31FN engines worth half a billion dollars

Rosoboronexport" and the Defense Ministry of China signed a contract to supply the Asian country 123 AL-31FN engines worth $ 500 million, reports the newspaper "Vedomosti" . The first 13 engines will be delivered to the customer before the end of this year, and full transfer of power plants to be completed by 2013. Contract Administration will be plant in Moscow "Salute."

AL-31FN engines are widely used in Chinese fighter J-10 and J-11 (an edited copy of the Su-27).China regularly purchases the Russian power plants, as engines for combat aircraft produced in the country, are reliable. In 2003, China's Ministry of Defense purchased from Russia 54 engine in 2007 - 100, and in 2009 - 122. Presumably, most of the engines purchased have been installed on the export versions of Chinese military aircraft at the request of customers.

At present, China produces for the J-10 fighter and the J-11 engines WS-10 and their derivatives. These engines are copies of the Russian AL-31, but differ from the latter less traction, reliability, and shorter time between overhauls. In particular, the WS-10A engines installed on the prototype of the Chinese Navy Fighter J-15 (a copy of the Su-33), and WS-10G - a prototype of the fighter-bomber, the fifth-generation J-20.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 04 Jul 2011 22:14

ShauryaT wrote:rajanb ji: You may be referring to Nathu La and Chola incidents of 67?

Tubelight. Yes! Thanks Shauryaji. Nathu La it was.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 04 Jul 2011 23:19

shiv wrote:Rohit - part of the problem is that much of Chinese effort - real or faked is aimed at equal equal with America. It is American sources who are putting up a constant barrage of "Watch out the Chinese are coming! Watch out the Chinese are coming!". My usual sources - relatives and friends who moved to America in the 1970s are all now telling ME about China (The Chinese are coming) as if I don't know. This is something that was absent a decade ago. Their talk used to be different. It was usually "Come to America. Become like America. See we don't have oppressive airline security queues. It's efficient here".

Compared with that the "Chinese are coming" noise in India is low. That somehow gives people the impression that India is asleep - which is nonsense. Indians have been soiling their langotis since 1962. Just because India is not joining the new and previously non existent American chorus that the Chinese are coming does not indicate lack of knowledge or concern.

Another thing we need to consider is that to cover their under the cover help to China Americans sources who are putting up a constant barrage of "Watch out the Chinese are coming! Watch out the Chinese are coming!".

This is like guiding the PRC to a fake encounter while at the same time work and trade with them. Indians have not understood this.

Juggi G · Post by **Juggi G** » 05 Jul 2011 01:30

True or Lies

China Nears Jet Engine Breakthrough : Report

China Nears Jet Engine Breakthrough : Report
By DAVE MAJUMDAR
Published : 30 Jun 2011

In a paper released earlier this week, analysts at China Signpost argue that the Chinese are on the verge of making a breakthrough in jet engine technology, traditionally one of that nation's weak points in developing modern fighters.

"We estimate that based on current knowledge and assuming no major setbacks or loss of mission focus, China will need 2-3 years before it achieves comprehensive capabilities commensurate with the aggregate inputs in the jet engine sector," wrote authors Andrew Erickson, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College, and Gabe Collins, a commodity and security specialist focused on China and Russia.

China Signpost is a newly created, U.S.-based online think tank that specializes in China.

Collins said via email that the Chinese are close to matching the performance of the F-15C's Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-100 engine.

"They are really close on the PW-100-level engine technology," Collins said. "But the devil is in the details, and until the Chinese aerospace industry masters milspec quality control processes, it will be very hard to produce enough consistently good engines to truly reduce China's dependence on the Russians for high-performance tactical aircraft jet engines."

The major weak points of the Chinese aircraft engine industry are in building turbine blades and standardizing processes, Collins said.

"Standardization and integration may be the one area in which the costs of China's ad hoc, eclectic approach to strategic technology development truly manifest themselves," he said.

It will take the Chinese five to 10 years to develop an engine that could power a fifth-generation stealth fighter jet comparable to the U.S. military's F-22 Raptor or F-35 Lightning II, Collins said.

"The existence of the WS-15 program suggests that attaining the capability to manufacture an indigenous F119-class engine [which powers the F-22] to power the J-20 is a high priority," he said.

The J-20 is a new stealth fighter under development in China.

It will probably take a lot longer than five to 10 years before China can build fighter engines comparable to modern U.S. engines, said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group, Fairfax, Va.,

"They're a very long way from an F119/F135/F136 level of technology," Aboulafia said. "They'd have to make huge strides in materials, design and manufacturing. And by the time they got there, the West will have made major strides, too."

That being said, the Chinese have made major strides in advancing their engine technology, he said.

"The Chinese are making aero engine improvements, and could get to a reasonable level of autonomy in five-10 years. That means copying Western or Russian capabilities from the 1980s," Aboulafia said.

If the Chinese are able to develop and build an engine similar in performance to Pratt & Whitney's F100, they could still build a formidable fleet of warplanes, he said.

"An F100 level of capability can make a truly indigenous fighter a reality, and they'd pose a threat in sheer numbers alone," Aboulafia said.

Loren Thompson, an analyst at the Lexington Institute, Arlington, Va., disagreed, saying that the Chinese could develop a fighter engine comparable to the Raptor's F119 far sooner than Western analysts expect.

"U.S. academics and intelligence analysts have consistently underestimated the rate of Chinese progress both economically and technologically," he said.

The Chinese, Thompson said, have developed economically much more quickly than anyone expected, and one should not expect any less from their technological development.

Further, he said, China's progress is aided by technology gleaned both legally and illegally from abroad.

Thompson also dismissed suggestions that Chinese society is less innovative than Western ones.

Industrializing countries typically don't spend a lot on research and development until they have reached a more competitive position, he said. "There is no reason for China to invest in research and development when they can steal it at a fraction of the cost."

Aboulafia said that it is true that China has developed much faster than most expected in both the economic and technological realms, but aviation is an exception to that general trend.

"We have a history of underestimating China's economy and parts of its military, but of overestimating its aviation capabilities," he said. "One glance at their commercial jetliner industry proves that."

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 05 Jul 2011 02:32

True or Lies

Possible.

But, the article has "outs":

....assuming no major setbacks or loss of mission focus, China will need......

Then .....

China will need 2-3 years before it achieves comprehensive capabilities commensurate with the aggregate inputs in the jet engine sector

However, the opinion of one analyst ......

The Chinese are making aero engine improvements, and could get to a reasonable level of autonomy in five-10 years. That means copying Western or Russian capabilities from the 1980s,

And another ................

saying that the Chinese could develop a fighter engine comparable to the Raptor's F119 far sooner than Western analysts expect

Typical of the situation. It has much speculation.

no one really knows. IMHO that includes the Chinese themselves.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 05 Jul 2011 05:14

Juggi G wrote:True or Lies

China Nears Jet Engine Breakthrough : Report

China Nears Jet Engine Breakthrough : Report

"They are really close on the PW-100-level engine technology," Collins said. "But the devil is in the details,

There is absolutely no magic in aero engines. It is hard work - as India has found out.

The F-100 engine development ws started in 1967, and the first one flew in 1972. (Wiki). Pratt and Whitney were producing jet engines in the 1950s. If the Chinese are catching up with 1970 - that is both commendable and credible. India may be slightly ahead and may end up with an 80s engine.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 05 Jul 2011 06:49

This article has more details on the status of WS 10, it is similar in assessments to the one posted above. Do not know, who is copying whom.
Jet Engine Development in China: Indigenous high-performance turbofans are a final step toward fully independent fighter production

Added: Oh the earlier one, is referring to the china post article.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 05 Jul 2011 07:13

Jet engine tech has undergone a transformation even as we have followed events in the last 10-12 years on BR. A decade ago the buzzword was "powder metallurgy" and "single crystal blades" - as all these were already being put into engines of that era. Over the next few years we saw the emergence of blisks and composite blades and the design of blades with a microstructure that allows more efficient cooling - enabling them to survive higher temperatures.

Neither India nor China are up to speed on single crystal blades - which were already being put into engines in the late 1990s - perhaps after a decade of research and development. That is already 2 decades behind. You can strip down an engine and do an exact copy of all the parts - but if the materials are different then you get and engine that may be 50% less efficient that the original and works only for a few score hours - or worse. It's not the ability to make an engine that counts so much as the ability to make the right materials. Even then the engine would have to be tested for reliability and western engines have built up tens of millions of hours of flying time. Not easy to catch no matter how loud the rhetoric or how confident the jingoism.

The significance of "1 million hours" of flying time is easily ignored. 1 million hours is 114 years of continuous running. If you run ten engines for 8 hours a day for testing it will still take 35 years of testing to accumulate 1 million hours of experience. If you lose one a/c on the way - your program gets set back for a year. That is why I doubt if Chinese jingo speculation that teh J-20 is experimenting with two different intake configurations for right and left intake is nonsense.

I have desperately been searching the internet for data on serviceability of Chinese clone engines for the F-7s operated by Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. No one actually makes such info public. If your engine works non stop for 1000 hours you might boast, but if it is conking out every 10 hours no one will talk.

jaladipc · Post by **jaladipc** » 05 Jul 2011 07:28

I think we folks are missing something while busy hanging on this so called single crystal tech.couple of blue moons ago a jingo from BARC whose specialization is materials development and working on the same said that single crystals for aero engines is a technology of the past and the latest being the metal silicide coatings.he went on saying that use of metal silicide coatings instead of single crystal will further bring down the weight for aerospace applications.

the only thing I was missing the whole point is, whether he mentioned using metal silicides ontop of other materials that offer the strength and durability to withstand or use of metal silicide as a complete compound in the process.