2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[vijayk]

I am not an economist but let me throw in my 2 cents
Modi by bringing in Demo + GST + DBT has shaken the system from its roots.
All of these and many such improvements have brought down the money flow in the system. Every rupee bribe would have generated at least 10-15 Rs extra for GDP. Let these corrections happen, then we will have a real booming economy.

I fervently hope that the economic turnaround happens and by the time 2024 comes up we will be comfortably past the 7-8% growth. We cannot lose Modi/Shah because economy took a backseat to all the other socio/religious wins we are notching up.

all the signs are pointing to next 6-12 months ...
In 2 years, this will be totally different

[Nikhil T]

Through cr*p like this:

BJP MP calls Delhi CM Kejriwal a “terrorist”



Or when it’s leader says that Feb 8 Delhi elections are between India and Pakistan.
Or when Tej Bug-ga - a BJP candidate - openly peddles fake videos to incite hatred, with no scrutiny at all.
Or when it cannot find a better Delhi CM candidate than a washed up Bhojpuri actor who famously couldn’t name a single thing that he would improve in Delhi, except that Modiji will improve it magically.
Or when it gets its knickers in a knot about a comedian bullying a single passenger for 5 mins, when not too long ago it’s MP (Pragya Thakur) held up a flight for 45 mins, harassing hundreds of passengers.
Or when it has dug its head in the sand and is in abject denial about flag waving, national anthem singing citizens protesting peacefully.
Or when a Union Minister and a Governor (Kiran Bedi) are Chief Guests in a school function, where kids rush to demolish a Masjid as part of their annual day play.
Or when we forget that the person who killed Gandhi was a radicalized Hindu with close ties to RSS, not a rabid Muslim.

People voted BJP for acche din .. progress. But it is fighting elections based on history, not on the future. Also, this notion that the “Dharmic” people against recent developments are somehow “lesser Hindus” or “lesser patriots” is just pitiful denial of reality. As an example, my wife’s entire family - several of them serving / retired Armed Forces type - has always voted BJP. But have no doubt that many of them have no affection for recent developments and want the GoI to return to the path of development. That said, in fairness, I doubt any of them will stop voting for BJP possibly because the good outweighs the bad.

It's election season and a very peculiar election fever forcibly takes hold of normally sane people.

People who have spoken politely, sanely and logically all through the five years since the last election have suddenly turned rabid.

The same is true for all people campaigning, no matter on which of the divide.

Just listen and observe. Both sides are speaking the same language.

remember aunty mafia and her "maut ka saudagar" comment.

Who would have thunk that a white skin eyetalian could say that about her Indian opponent but she did and promptly paid the bitter price for it too.

BTW, godse had left the RSS in disgust long before he did the dirty.

Let us not demonize the RSS unnecessarily, unless of course, you are campaigning too.

100% agreed about RSS sir. I would do no such thing - my father was a RSS member growing up and I have massive respect for it. My point is actually related - the ugliness of the political discourse underway today will harm India in the long term. Elections will pass, but we cannot survive by positioning 1300 million against 200 million. No question about that (in my mind atleast).

I mean look at this thread - we're peddling conspiracy theories about a gunman caught on camera. It *doesn't* matter that the gunman was a Right Wing Hindu or a Left Wing Muslim. What it points to is that rhetoric and polarization will lead to radicalization on both sides, and then, violence.

Also, how is it that calling a democratically elected CM a terrorist is not sedition?

[SBajwa]

Economic problems are happening around the world and not just in India.

These economic problems are only due to the trade wars between Trump and XI.
Now that oil prices are going up., both Trump and Putin are on the same side.
USA will be exporting oil now as Iran/venezuela/etc are sidelined.
So! Expect economy to improve in next 3-6 months.

[Suraj]

Here's a perspective from someone who generally looks at the econ thread and not bolitics thread:

* The overall economic malaise began in 2011-12. Yes, that long ago. Some would argue it was even earlier in 2010-11 but I will be charitable. Several major indicators fell starting that period and did not recover until 2017-18 fiscal. An example is commercial vehicle sales. Another example is NPA ratio.
* August to October 2019 was effectively the bottom of the economic slowdown.
* Growth dropped sequentially over several preceding quarters and approximately two fiscal years at least, including the April-June 2019 quarter, right in the middle of General Elections.
* The bottom of the NPA cycle was 2017-18. It takes years to unravel to its worst point, as solvent entities and serviceable lendings progressively become insolvent and incapable of paying their loans back, as other businesses related to their own run into trouble. There's no such thing as a few entities failing - it triggers a cascading sequence of problems for others that are not apparent until later.
* This isn't even a case of 'hiding bad debt' . There's plenty of that, but even assuming everyone stays honest, they cannot guarantee they won't be insolvent because of external issues affecting their business. E.g. dropping CV/car sales year on year leads to dropping toll incomes leads to infra companies progressively unable to service debt leading to more NPA leading to more dropping of CV sales used by those companies, among other things...

Now another perspective:
* Topline GDP growth has very little correlation to the political impact of this government. It was re-elected by the most outstanding landslide in Indian electoral history, one quarter before the bottom of a long economic crisis.
* What's more, the government was re-elected largely on a development plank. There is a reason for this:

* India's average GDP growth over ~30 years is next only to China in sustained growth. Yet in 2014, only ~40% of rural India had no access to electricity, roads, sanitation, cooking fuel, formal banking and water.
* However, in 2019, every one of these metrics except water was north of 90%, despite stagnant top line growth. Constructing all those roads, electricity lines, toilets and gas cylinders is not a big GDP needle mover in itself. All those SBM toilets only cost $10 billion total over 5 years, or 0.05% of economic output over that period. Going to Pakistan in the morning (or evening) does not improve GDP at all...
* In addition to making near universal access to basic goods and services available, the government has emphasized formalization of economic activity, and the implementation of a rules-based society, painstakingly replacing the prior patronage based society. GST, PMJDY, Aadhar, subsidies deposited to RuPay card, the IBC act, all are explicitly procedural operations.
* No patronage based exceptions; Mallya can (on an imaginary planet) be 100% honest and hand over all the money he owes to the bank as an 'offer' and yet he will be declined because that's not how IBC process works.
* None of this is perfect - GST, IBC all needed several improvements and still need more. However, the people in general 'get it' regarding what the government is trying to do.

You don't need top line growth to win a general election. What you do need is a sustained record of executing a straightforward plan, learning from every mistake when the implementation hits the real world, and fixing things in the process.

The opposition has done the government a favour by burning all their matches within the first 6 months of the new term. The government has also benefited from the bottom of the economic cycle being the quarter after they got elected. They're in the midst of implementing their most ambitious public goods delivery program - universal access to water. Meanwhile, they've already implemented solutions to two of the original reasons for the foundation of BJP's political predecessor - Article 370 (which was the reason SP Mukherjee originally broke with INC), and the population transfer issue via CAA. In addition, they have the Ayodhya win.

Things like failure to implement disinvestment plans or LIC's issues have essentially zero political cost compared to the gains their other actions have resulted in.

[Nikhil T]

Now another perspective:
* Topline GDP growth has very little correlation to the political impact of this government. It was re-elected by the most outstanding landslide in Indian electoral history, one quarter before the bottom of a long economic crisis.
* What's more, the government was re-elected largely on a development plank.

Let's be real. A large part of the 2019 win was because of the response to the Pulwana attack (in Feb) and the pro-farmer budget (remember the Rs 2000 given to each farmer before polls). This is substantiated by independent opinion polls.

I think you are forgetting the public outcry against jobless growth (a key 2014 promise) that had the BJP sweating in Jan/Feb 2019. Jobs are directly driven by GDP growth - you only need to look at layoffs in the automotive sector. All other macro policies such as correctly funding the budget, making PSUs more effective through privatization, and not misusing LIC to play the capital markets etc. directly drive job growth.


Source: Republic TV

Note I'm not disputing any of the socio-economic achievements you cited earlier. Hope we get 100X of that in the future. Just want to correct a notion, before it becomes an article of faith.

[sudarshan]

And Dr. Patil went on record stating that Modi's popularity even after Feb./ March last year, had very little to do with Balakot. That's what the media wanted India to believe, that Modi did some filmi stunts and everybody became enthralled and voted for him. Basically Poor Pappu's chowkidar chor hai got drowned out in the din of Balakot. If only Pappu could have yelled louder, and got his supporters to yell louder, and Balakot hadn't happened... .

I don't think there was any "public outcry" against jobless growth either, though there certainly was a "Pappu outcry."

[Suraj]

Let's be real. A large part of the 2019 win was because of the response to the Pulwana attack (in Feb) and the pro-farmer budget (remember the Rs 2000 given to each farmer before polls). This is substantiated by independent opinion polls.

Both those to be irrelevant to the final result. Both a war/terrorist attack pre-election (1971, 1999, 2009) and pre-election sops (pretty much every time) have occured before, and neither have generated the kind of political result GE 2019 did. I don't consider those arguments as credible.

It is factually true that GE 2019 occured near absolute bottom of a very long period of economic turmoil and yet yielded both the highest ever election turnout (high turnouts almost always work against an incumbent in such cases) *and* unheard of voteshares exceeding 50% in over a dozen states, effectively eliminating FPTP as a factor.

GE2014 had 66% turnout. GE2019 had 68% turnout. No GE ever had more than 63% turnout. The historical average before 2014 was ~56%. There's never been any major democratic election result anywhere in the world, where an incumbent returned to power with an even larger mandate *and* an even larger turnout, with both turnouts being historical records.

No prior election - after a war, after a terrorist attack, after a major populist dole - ever came anywhere close to the participation and result of GE2019. Check the turnout in 1999 - after Kargil War, turnout FELL from the previous election, and the SLP had 182 seats. In 2019, the turnout broke the historical record set in the previous election and the incumbent crossed 300 for the first time in a generation, with voteshares far higher than anyone else previously (except perhaps JLN in 1956).

No one gets that kind of a result due to a single terrorist event, or a sop. There's no record to back any such thing up. It's worth pointing out that you have nothing to back up the claims of the impact of LIC or disinvestment on the elections, but that is because there wasn't any.

[Nikhil T]

Let's be real. A large part of the 2019 win was because of the response to the Pulwana attack (in Feb) and the pro-farmer budget (remember the Rs 2000 given to each farmer before polls). This is substantiated by independent opinion polls.

Both those to be irrelevant to the final result. Both a war/terrorist attack pre-election (1971, 1999, 2009) and pre-election sops (pretty much every time) have occured before, and neither have generated the kind of political result GE 2019 did. I don't consider those arguments as credible.

1971 GE elections happened 9 months before the war. So the war couldn't have influenced the election anyway.

More generally, I don't know why you would not accept that Pulwama impacted the elections. Its a well established notion that wars unite the country under a strong leader (e.g. Falkland war and Thatcher). That leader was Modi and he reaped full political advantage of it.

It is factually true that GE 2019 occured near absolute bottom of a very long period of economic turmoil and yet yielded both the highest ever election turnout (high turnouts almost always work against an incumbent in such cases) *and* unheard of voteshares exceeding 50% in over a dozen states, effectively eliminating FPTP as a factor.

Fair point about high turnout. But turnout can also be attributed to voters being happy with the Pulwama response (again which had never happened before) and the just in time Farmer payout.

No one gets that kind of a result due to a single terrorist event, or a sop. There's no record to back any such thing up.

The source is above. What Dr Patil said on a tweet or whether this is "what media wanted us to believe" as @sudarshan said is upto you to believe. The source (Republic TV) is anyway the most "reliable" that RW accepts.

[vijayk]

Toilets, Direct Deposits, delivery of benefits like Ujjwala did not have any impact? People getting money into their bank accounts did not matter.?

Poll after poll, people were telling that they got toilets, their loans were waived, they got Mudra loans, gas cylinders, rations properly.

Right after 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, people including Mumbai voted for nikkammas who let 11 Pakis rule Mumbai for 3 days. Then they wore bangles and send some dossiers which Pakis laughed at. Still, people voted because of MNREGA benefits.

Of course, Pulwama helped lazy urban educated to get off their rear ends and go to the voting booth at least in places like Mumbai.

People look for a leader who delivers. They gave BJP a second term because of an efficient system of delivery in spite of DeMO and GST bungling.

[sudarshan]

https://threader.app/thread/1123080450140827648

April 2019: Lutyens media & historians will soon peddle the theory that "Modi won 2019 only because of Balakot airstrikes", don't fall for it
Having travelled everywhere in India, can vouch that it is purely his governance that is giving him this massive mandate!

July 2017: BJP+ is possibly heading towards 50%+ vote share across India in the next 2 years; 2019 could see 1 out of every 2 voters rooting for Modi!

2019 will probably be defined by an India of 99% homes with bijlee + 90% with toilets + 87% with cooking gas + near 100% bank accounts

And this is from CVoter, which you quoted above:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 971403.cms

April 2019: There was a sharp spike in NDA government’s popularity after an air strike in Balakot. But that nationalistic wave in favour of BJP seems to have subsided, shows a daily tracking poll by CVoter.

Unemployment vs Terror
Except for the weeks after the Pulwama attack and the Balakot bombing 12 days later, unmployment has consistently topped opinion polls as the biggest concern of voters. That order was restored by mid-March and concerns over national security have fallen now to pre-Pulwama levels. But from being the least important issue at the start of 2019, national security has now made a lasting mark on the minds of voters and stays above concerns over corruption, family income, basic amenities and rising prices.

Satisfaction with BJP & Modi
Both the BJP and PM Modi undoubtedly received a popularity boost from the so-called Balakot bump. But the spike has started to slide.

Why'd you stop your "Modi popularity chart" with March, 2019? The above site has the same data you showed above, but much finer day-by-day detail, and it extends into April 2019, showing the drop in popularity, back to pre-Balakot levels.

[fanne]

C voter? Enough said

[sudarshan]

See, it's very simple.

In March 2019, the media was very scared that bleddy Mudi had scored big time with Balakot, and was going to win because of that.

By April, they were gleefully reporting that the "Balakot boost" had subsided (see the CVoter data that @NikhilT quoted above - but please see all of it, not just the part that our friend selectively showed). In April, the media mantra was "Balakot boost gone onlee, now unemployment and jobless growth onlee, Mudi gone onlee."

Dr. Patil saw it coming. That's what his tweet was about. He predicted that Modi would win, and that the shell-shocked media would try to spin it back as a Balakot thingy. And that's exactly what the media did.

As the media house surveys themselves showed, by April, Balakot was forgotten. As the final result showed, "unemployment and jobless growth" was never a thing to begin with. "Unemployment was the thing, but Balakot overrode it" is media spin after the May verdict.

[Suraj]

1971 GE elections happened 9 months before the war. So the war couldn't have influenced the election anyway.

People vote someone who won a war, and can win an imminent war - everyone in 1971 was aware there was a war coming - IG was elected to ensure political leadership would be united following the turmoil of the late 1960s. Old-timers from that period here would confirm this.

More generally, I don't know why you would not accept that Pulwama impacted the elections. Its a well established notion that wars unite the country under a strong leader (e.g. Falkland war and Thatcher). That leader was Modi and he reaped full political advantage of it.

Because it's a common fallacy with no data to support it. Wars win elections sure. Sympathy to a terrorist attack wins votes. Even doles win votes.

NONE of these have any history of ever having caused an incumbent anywhere in the world to be re-elected by margins that make FPTP redundant, from a turnout that breaks historical records twice in a row, for an incumbent. Please look for it. I've searched essentially all of the western world and Japan. There's no evidence.

Thatcher was relected with a substantially lower turnout in 1983, and a 1.5% negative swing in voteshare - her gains were FPTP because #3 ate from #1 and #2. Reagan was elected in 1984 with a piddling 53% turnout, just 0.5% up from 1980. More people turned out to vote for Trump in 2016 than Reagan in 1984. ABV saw a drop in turnout in 1999 weeks after Kargil War. Despite the Mumbai attacks, GE 2009 turnout was only 58%, just slightly above long term average. 2019 saw 68% turnout, an enormous 5 pp higher than in 1984 after IG's assassination, the previous high water mark in turnout.

Sops: Rs.2000 a year earned 303 seats, 50% voteshare in almost 20 states with 68% turnout but the far more expansive MNREGA in 2009 earned 206 seats, far lower turnout and a whole 10pp lower turnout ?

No one gets that kind of a result due to a single terrorist event, or a sop. There's no record to back any such thing up.

The source is above. What Dr Patil said on a tweet or whether this is "what media wanted us to believe" as @sudarshan said is upto you to believe. The source (Republic TV) is anyway the most "reliable" that RW accepts.

I followed PP very closely during GE2019, and contributed to him multiple times despite the controversy about his methods then (Do you remember it ? He was accused of being a fraud and many stopped donating), and I remember his posts very well. He repeatedly hammered home the development message, far more than Pulwama or any Rs.2K payouts to farmers. Please look for his posts on "Labharthi" , feel free to count how many times he refers to that vs Pulwama or even the PM Kisan yojana. You'll find the former being mentioned 1-2 orders of magnitude more.

[banrjeer]

Now would be the time for BJP to DEMAND that they withdraw the protest, at least on ONE SIDE of the road. If they do withdraw, shout from the rooftops that it was because they got scared. These people can't stand loss of face and being portrayed as weak.

Or - just start off twitter rumors that, as soon as they heard that the Yogi was coming, they got scared and started withdrawing. There is no way these people can stomach that kind of snickering against them, it would be the most galling kind of loss of face.

Moi not on twitter, unfortunately, feel free to use if you see the value.

Stop the biriyani supply and start a wet man made drizzle

[chetak]

If Modi wins it is always because of the lies he told or because of reasons other than his hard work, charisma, dedication, and political acumen, and moreover, they dejectedly drag in communal politics, hard core Hindutwa ideology, dara hua mussalman and religious polarization and the ever present RSS.

When he loses, it's always his fault and the results are a direct referendum on him and his terrorist anti minority, anti people ideologies and he should resign forthwith and make way for a "moderate" like advani

It looks like his enemies are all desperately out to unhorse him any which way they can, because their own chai pani cultures and petty tekedharis which ensured their entitled and continuous feasting at the public trough over these 70 odd years have either been curtailed drastically or as in most cases, eliminated completely.

they have all been forced away from their earlier rich champagne caviar sickular social orgies complete with mushairas and urdu shairi mehfils to a bland roti lassi existence which they themselves have to pay for.

For the entitled and affected lootyens, commie, naxal, presstitute, BIF crowd, it is an unpardonable sacrilege.

That's got to hurt really bad.

[SRajesh]

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A ... UUZBlXNHDk
Will this ring the death knell for the Muzrai Departments of all the state governments???

[Vikas]

If Modi wins it is always because of the lies he told or because of reasons other than his hard work, charisma, dedication, and political acumen, and moreover, they dejectedly drag in communal politics, hard core Hindutwa ideology, dara hua mussalman and religious polarization and the ever present RSS.

When he loses, it's always his fault and the results are a direct referendum on him and his terrorist anti minority, anti people ideologies and he should resign forthwith and make way for a "moderate" like advani

It looks like his enemies are all desperately out to unhorse him any which way they can, because their own chai pani cultures and petty tekedharis which ensured their entitled and continuous feasting at the public trough over these 70 odd years have either been curtailed drastically or as in most cases, eliminated completely.

they have all been forced away from their earlier rich champagne caviar sickular social orgies complete with mushairas and urdu shairi mehfils to a bland roti lassi existence which they themselves have to pay for.

For the entitled and affected lootyens, commie, naxal, presstitute, BIF crowd, it is an unpardonable sacrilege.

That's got to hurt really bad.

First time, it was Godhara and Polarization, Second time was 'Maut ka saudagar' comment and Polarization,
Then came 2014 and it was bad alliances by Rahul (young kid still learning the ropes) ,'Neech' comment and Polarization,
2019 was only because of 'Hua to hua' comment, Balakot and Polarization..
you see the drift..

Why should Anurag Kashap & likes not curse Modi when his free scholarship by UP govt has been stopped.
Why would Darkha butt & likes not demonize Modi when free trips on AI with booze, chance to control formation of ministry and unlimited cash is no longer available.

Luyten Delhi is aching in pain and cursing Modi.

[chetak]

twitter

The #TukdeTukdeGang bogey is just that. A bogey. These are people used for 70 years to having things their own way, no questions asked. That ended in May 2014. Ever since, the losers of entitlement have seethed. That seething anger needed a locus. At #ShaheenBagh they found it.

[pankajs]

Very few of Modi's opponents or for that matter friends understand his game/strategy and are easily mislead by some surface level analysis. Modi is not only hardworking but also "incredibly lucky" to have such shallow analysts/analysis of his victories! Modi continues to a couple of steps ahead and surprise everyone becuase he and his strategy is misunderstood. In a way lazy analysis enables Modi. Theek hai.

I remember how many of BJP's supporters on this very forum were in "hai tauba" mode before GE 2019 and thought Phulwama as the turning point! I was quite harsh during those discussions trying to cut through the negativity that had gripped many. BJP itself was quite clear and constantly communicating about its newly minted "labharthi" voter base but no one was willing to listen and factor that in!

https://twitter.com/NavroopSingh_/statu ... 8422491136

Navroop Singh @NavroopSingh_

Fantastic campaign by BJP.. What Aggression never seen this Avtaar... They have changed game in few days in Delhi. I am floored by Shah & Co !! Bhagwa Lehrayenge... Mandir Banayenge... Jai Shri Ram

Someone from Delhi who follows politics closely.

No matter how Tauheen bagh ends, it will only strengthen Modi/BJP. Opposition and Analysts don't understand psychology of masses in the Indian situation. Modi understand it and has let the Delhi drama continue.

[pankajs]

Btw, I had this brainwave today morning on how to expose the Indian sickularists OR destroy their narrative once for all.

I would "start" by calling "Jinnah" the "first terrorist of Modern India" every time someone opens their mouth about RSS/Godse. Don't attack Gandhi or defend Godse but attack Jinnah. He is a bakistani, the divider in chief of the India of old and therefore a legitimate target and cannot be used to guilt-trip Yindus unlike Gandhi! The left, liberandus and sickularists don't exactly stick to facts but bend it to suit their narrative so we too shall take some small liberties in building a counter.

This "small" change in tactics will create a fire like no other that will consume the left, liberandus and sickularists narrative like no other. Note I have use the word "start" and that is exactly what I mean. This statement will elicit a response from more than the left, liberandus and sickularists jamat and will provide RW multiple handles/issues on which to attack the left, liberandus and sickularists narrative.

Anyone want's to counter me here to check my theory?

[Aditya_V]

Why not have 14 Aug as Hindu Holocaust day in memory of the wiping out of Hindus in Pakistan.

[pankajs]

1. Attacking Jinnah is a active tactics as against a remembrance day which is a passive tactics.
2. RSS/Godse jibes need a similar counter
3. Attacking Jinnah as "first terrorist of modern India" can be invoked anytime as against a remembrance day.
4. Attacking Jinnah as "first terrorist of modern India" is much more provocative than a remembrance day and will elicit a response for it hurts too many narratives.

[fanne]

Mohemmed bin kasim was the first terrorist

[chetonzz]

It's election season and a very peculiar election fever forcibly takes hold of normally sane people.

People who have spoken politely, sanely and logically all through the five years since the last election have suddenly turned rabid.

The same is true for all people campaigning, no matter on which of the divide.

Just listen and observe. Both sides are speaking the same language.

remember aunty mafia and her "maut ka saudagar" comment.

Who would have thunk that a white skin eyetalian could say that about her Indian opponent but she did and promptly paid the bitter price for it too.

BTW, godse had left the RSS in disgust long before he did the dirty.

Let us not demonize the RSS unnecessarily, unless of course, you are campaigning too.

100% agreed about RSS sir. I would do no such thing - my father was a RSS member growing up and I have massive respect for it. My point is actually related - the ugliness of the political discourse underway today will harm India in the long term. Elections will pass, but we cannot survive by positioning 1300 million against 200 million. No question about that (in my mind atleast).

I mean look at this thread - we're peddling conspiracy theories about a gunman caught on camera. It *doesn't* matter that the gunman was a Right Wing Hindu or a Left Wing Muslim. What it points to is that rhetoric and polarization will lead to radicalization on both sides, and then, violence.

Also, how is it that calling a democratically elected CM a terrorist is not sedition?

1300 million against 200 million is going to happen even if "1300 million" give their everything to "200 million"...
GeH is real and we need to fight it at some point of time in future...

it is not the Q of "IF" but "When"...

[Aditya_V]

1300 million Indians Vs 200 Million Pakis?

[pankajs]

Some Sickularist are clearly sensing the change on the ground and want an out ... Modi has played it as well as it could have been played by his masterful inactivity.

https://twitter.com/RaisinaSeries/statu ... 7838248960

Krishan Partap Singh @RaisinaSeries

Protestors in Delhi have made their point on CAA vociferously and effectively, but I think they need to give room for the democratic process in Delhi to play out without causing a distraction. If you respect the Constitution you must respect elections. Time for a short hiatus.

A rabid anti-Modi person!
https://twitter.com/YRDeshmukh/status/1 ... 1520717824

Yashwant Deshmukh @YRDeshmukh

Finally started sinking in that it's backfiring. When I said the same thing right in the start, it was an unpopular opinion among the liberals.

Underline this fact : AK is politically and electorally way more smarter than his left-liberal supporters with suicidal tendencies.

Deshmukh jee of CVoter.

Note further down in a reply ..
https://twitter.com/YRDeshmukh/status/1 ... 8717839360

Yashwant Deshmukh @YRDeshmukh

A big Ha. Left liberals are still living in denial that the agenda they have been working on has stopped giving electoral dividends. It's just not working. They felt 2014 was a black swan event, till 2019 happened. And now they are thinking that black swan might have repeated.

https://twitter.com/Jay_d4/status/12231 ... [quote]Jay Dahiphalkar @Jay_d4

Actually I agree with you on this, 2019 was not a black swan event. The thing is communalism and pseudo patriotism is working and liberal values stopped being appealing for masses. Your c-voter tracker for Delhi is proving it.[/quote]Pseudo liberals still don't get it! Theek hai. https://twitter.com/YRDeshmukh/status/1 ... e]Yashwant Deshmukh @YRDeshmukh

Things are changing Jay and it is not a one day event or one leader phenomenon. These are also the reactionary fruits to something which liberal extremism tried sowing up for a long time without understanding the values and ethos of India.[/quote]Yindus where pushed to the wall and they are responding the only way one can and should in a democracy .. by placing their faith in one leader who they "think" can reverse the slide and bring a semblance of balance.

[Larry Walker]

Btw, I had this brainwave today morning on how to expose the Indian sickularists OR destroy their narrative once for all.

I would "start" by calling "Jinnah" the "first terrorist of Modern India" every time someone opens their mouth about RSS/Godse. Don't attack Gandhi or defend Godse but attack Jinnah. He is a bakistani, the divider in chief of the India of old and therefore a legitimate target and cannot be used to guilt-trip Yindus unlike Gandhi! The left, liberandus and sickularists don't exactly stick to facts but bend it to suit their narrative so we too shall take some small liberties in building a counter.

This "small" change in tactics will create a fire like no other that will consume the left, liberandus and sickularists narrative like no other. Note I have use the word "start" and that is exactly what I mean. This statement will elicit a response from more than the left, liberandus and sickularists jamat and will provide RW multiple handles/issues on which to attack the left, liberandus and sickularists narrative.

Anyone want's to counter me here to check my theory?

Little perverted logic, but Gandhiji himself had avowed that he will allow partition only over his dead body, so once partition happened Godse only fulfilled bapu's vow ??!!

[kit]

A video clip of the Congress spokesperson, Ajay Verma, is doing the rounds on social media. In the video, from a programme that was aired this past week on an Indian television news channel, Verma is heard challenging the Bhartiya Janata Party-led ruling government to give a 'separate nation' to the 25 crore Indian Muslims and then declare India a 'Hindu Rashtra'.

"I dare Indian government to show guts and give a separate country, like Pakistan, to Indian Muslims. Then you can declare India as a Hindu Rashtra (nation)," he said during a live debate on Zee news.

Verma's remarks drew sharp reactions from the anchor and from the BJP spokesperson, Sudhanshu Trivedi, who berated him for his inflammatory and divisive comments.

The incident happened during the show 'Taal Thok Ke' on which participants were debating the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1222722404985688067

This kind of clips should go viral wherever there are elections going on !!

[chetak]

India's embarrassing answer to picasso

[vijayk]

If BJP wins Delhi, modi/shah polarized the election. Voters are communal scoundrels. Nazis, Hitler blag blah ...
If BJP loses, this is how we have to keep subverting modi so that he cant do anything for next 5 years.

Fact of the matter is people overall gain impression over 5 year period. Slowly tide will turn for or against. Islamo/EJ led left terrorist gangs have no respect for opinion of citizens. If you happen to agree with us today, good for you. Tomorrow we will judge you again on more extreme issue. You have to be with rioters, Islamists and EJs and cher us or else you are a fascist, nazi, and communal.

[fanne]

Boss, either it is you or them...unfortunately, this is the long play, there is no middle ground. Choose your side. It is ugly and bad but that is the ugly truth

[pankajs]

Little perverted logic, but Gandhiji himself had avowed that he will allow partition only over his dead body, so once partition happened Godse only fulfilled bapu's vow ??!!

No no ... Gandhiji is still a revered figure amongst the masses. One can't win any argument by dragging Gandhi in where as Jinnah offers a free for all plus it bisses everyone off including the left, liberandus, sickularist and peacefuls too. Plus it bisses their financiers in bakistan. Yindu need to learn to play "sensible" offensive while not giving an opening of a counter attack.

How will the bakis respond when we take a jibe at their founding father? And that is when the fun starts!! Have you ever played carrom? There are some lesson there that could be used by a thinking person tactically.

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1223120343788744705

Sidhant Sibal @sidhant

Govt list building of #Kartarpur sahib corridors as one of its achievement during the President's address in the beginning of Budget Session.

Bakis re puzzled .. they can't figure out why Modi is taking credit for something that they have been told by their military is their masterstroke over India!

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1223121889075187717

Sidhant Sibal @sidhant

Increase in Haj Quota by Saudi Arabia listed as achievement by Govt in Prez's address.

Mudi jee tussi gleat ho ...

https://twitter.com/trramesh/status/1223121192707444737

trramesh @trramesh

Big victory for True Bhaktas. Missionary backed Tamil detractors petition to conduct Tanjore Temple Consecration - Dismissed by Madurai Bench of MHC. @Swamy39 @vhsindia @MRVChennai @vsclekha @jsaideepak @TWS_Bharat @indiccollective @BJP4India

[Lekhraj]

Btw, I had this brainwave today morning on how to expose the Indian sickularists OR destroy their narrative once for all.

I would "start" by calling "Jinnah" the "first terrorist of Modern India" every time someone opens their mouth about RSS/Godse. Don't attack Gandhi or defend Godse but attack Jinnah. He is a bakistani, the divider in chief of the India of old and therefore a legitimate target and cannot be used to guilt-trip Yindus unlike Gandhi! The left, liberandus and sickularists don't exactly stick to facts but bend it to suit their narrative so we too shall take some small liberties in building a counter.

This "small" change in tactics will create a fire like no other that will consume the left, liberandus and sickularists narrative like no other. Note I have use the word "start" and that is exactly what I mean. This statement will elicit a response from more than the left, liberandus and sickularists jamat and will provide RW multiple handles/issues on which to attack the left, liberandus and sickularists narrative.

Anyone want's to counter me here to check my theory?

I tried this today and It worked.

[hanumadu]

Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3
The biggest takeaway/datapoint from Delhi is the sheer effort that the party organization is now putting and the participation rates of the RSS machinery are hitting record levels!

Remember the 1st thumb-rule of Indian politics?

[vishvak]

The thing is communalism and pseudo patriotism is working and liberal values stopped being appealing for masses

The rioting didn't help that but that didn't stop more protests wherein people with caps of certain religious way is considered secular. How stupid the libs think people are.

sheer effort that the party organization is now putting

The libs don't get this it seems. It's like maino clan give 'pardon' to killers of Rajiv Gandhi (which is good perhaps) but top generals of Sri Lanka having to answer some international court for cleaning out LTTE top echelon. The lib message has to be right or there would be backlash.

[vijayk]

I heard T is visiting India in Feb. Already some lib friends in US are cribbing.

[Sachin]

Execution of the 4 rapists in Nirbhaya case has now been postponed till further orders. The grief stricken parents of Nirbhaya, would soon lose any faith they have in the judiciary. And don't know if the below statement will have an impact on the Delhi elections.
Nirbhaya’s father blames Arvind Kejriwal for stay on execution.

[banrjeer]

Btw, I had this brainwave today morning on how to expose the Indian sickularists OR destroy their narrative once for all.

I would "start" by calling "Jinnah" the "first terrorist of Modern India" every time someone opens their mouth about RSS/Godse. Don't attack Gandhi or defend Godse but attack Jinnah. He is a bakistani, the divider in chief of the India of old and therefore a legitimate target and cannot be used to guilt-trip Yindus unlike Gandhi! The left, liberandus and sickularists don't exactly stick to facts but bend it to suit their narrative so we too shall take some small liberties in building a counter.

This "small" change in tactics will create a fire like no other that will consume the left, liberandus and sickularists narrative like no other. Note I have use the word "start" and that is exactly what I mean. This statement will elicit a response from more than the left, liberandus and sickularists jamat and will provide RW multiple handles/issues on which to attack the left, liberandus and sickularists narrative.

Anyone want's to counter me here to check my theory?

Little perverted logic, but Gandhiji himself had avowed that he will allow partition only over his dead body, so once partition happened Godse only fulfilled bapu's vow ??!!

Many Muslims of the subcontinent have colonial dreams. Islam still is a colonizing force.

Words like “cross border terrorism” used by the MEA are stupid.

The right term is genocide. Pakistan’s and it’s supporters in india have proliferated and backed genocide not terrorism.

What is CAA for? What is Bangladesh and what is Balochistan. There areMuslims outside india now who are seeing through the sham.

Many desi muslims are in some cocoon because of weak language used by the babus.

[Primus]

Some Sickularist are clearly sensing the change on the ground and want an out ... Modi has played it as well as it could have been played by his masterful inactivity.

Modi is patient and able to read the signs better than anyone else in recent times. So is AS, his very capable brother-in-arms. The Shaheen Bagh episode illustrates very clearly how such 'protests' should be handled. The Congies and their various cronies have always been shouting from the rooftops 'Modi Ji kuchh kehte kyun nahin' for the smallest of events anywhere, of course blaming the BJP and Modi for it in the first place.

Modi OTOH has always allowed them enough rope to hang themselves for he knows in the end they will shoot themselves in the foot and the people at large will gradually see them for what they really are. This time it is no exception, worse, in fact as the mask has finally come off and we know it is all about GeH and not about CAA or art 370 etc.

We were always taught during our labor room postings in OB - the mantra is "masterly inactivity and watchful expectancy". This was drilled into us time and again, for nature is all-powerful and usually does better than we can with our untimely intervention.

So also with these agitators. Let them sweat it out some more and realize nothing is being gained, rather the tide has now turned against them. What would be interesting is the exit strategy - with bang or a whimper? My money is on the latter.