Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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johneeG
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by johneeG »

devesh wrote:if Uddhav wants to commit suicide, nobody can stop him.

is this bad for NDA? yes.

is this bad for BJP's chance to take gaddi in Dilli? yes.

but it will also once and for all destroy SS. they will be gone. the mantle of being the Opposition to the Congress-Secularist fronts falls then rightfully on the BJP's shoulders without any "coalition" constraints. this is a good thing.

this election is laying the seeds of destruction for a whole host of people. BJP might seem like it's taking the hit. BUT NOWHERE...not in MH, not in AP....will BJP ultimately become the fall-guy for what is happening. others will bask in temporary glory. while some people will commit outright suicide like UT wants to do.

BJP will march on. they might not come to power. but simply every "secularist"/"third front"/"regional" alternative to BJP gets decimated. this is a happy result. it's like process of elimination. the Indian voter will be forced to go through the whole cornucopia of "fronts", systematically rejecting every one of them turn by turn, and finally wake up to see the Lotus ever untouched and floating pristinely.

BJP will march on. no need to go into gloom and doom. 2014 is turning out to be the kind of year which brings multiple forces out into play, forcing INC and their backers to fight on multiple fronts, exposing more and more of their own pawns.
Saar,
you are making a logical mistake here: you are assuming that just because the alternatives fail, lotus will succeed or that the alternatives have to fail for the lotus to succeed. It may happen as you are hoping, but there are also chances that it may not happen in that way.

If lotus allies wither away, then other forces that are not necessarily in favor of lotus may rise up.

One thing should be clear, lotus is unable to bloom due to its own inefficiencies. It should not be blamed on competition or other factors. As long as those inefficiencies are not addressed, it will give rise to problems one way or the other. There is no point in blaming voters, allies or others.

All said and done, lotus will expand if it is in power in Dilli. It has the advantage of a very dedicated and motivated cadre. It has a clear ideology to take advantage of. It can benefit from growing nationalism and Hindhu awakening. All factors are in its favor. If it is ready to address its organizational issues, then it has a lot of space to grow. Hoping that allies die, so that it can cannibalize on their support base seems like scraping the bottom of the barrel.

If the allies have to wither away, then that process has to be properly managed. The allies have to absorbed rather than allowed to wither away. Many of these non-lotus parties have played a crucial role in keeping the other forces at bay. If those non-lotus parties are gone, then that strengthens the other forces.

If the lotus cannot gain and the allies wither away, the position will be na ghar ka ghat ka(bird in the hand gone and the bird in the bush also gone).
vera_k
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vera_k »

RajeshA wrote:I think BJP mistake was to give Shiv Sena 22 seats for contesting in MH. 10-15 LS seats should have been enough. In Assembly one can of course accommodate more of Shiv Sena.
No, IMO BJP is but a learner in politics.

INC got the Shiv Sena to support it for the President's election by proposing Prathiba Patil for President.

BJP can do something similar. Perhaps announce that Parliament proceedings can be conducted in Marathi as well.
SwamyG
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SwamyG »

http://www.dinamalar.com/news_detail.asp?id=930624

AIADMK using Modi's name in their campaign to get votes for JJ. AIADMK is reminding people that JJ and Modi are friends, though there is no pre-poll alliance, there is post-poll alliance that is brewing, so they remind people to not waste their vote and ensure they vote for JJ.

Modi comes to know about this, and laughs it off. TN BJP is astounded that Modi is keeping such close tabs on the State.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Kati »

About the Hooghly seat in West Bengal:

1. BJP doesn't have a chance to win the seat, but even if it shows a strong third position, or by any miracle, comes second then it will create an earthquake in West Bengal. Hooghly, a semi-rural/semi-urban seat is a hot one. Till three years ago it was CPM's pocket-borough. Then, a large number of low-level cadres switched allegiance to Trinamool Cong, and it is held by them now.

2. The importance of Hooghly is that it has generated a good number of powerful state leaders in both left and right. Further, it is just a stone throw distance from Kolkata, and Hooghly-Kolkata politics touches each other very much.

3. Bringing Chandan Mitra to hooghly is a good move. Not only he can campaign in native language, but also it'll give BJP a very high visibility. Most importantly, Hooghly is close to Kolkata, and hence all debate circuits centered in Kolkata will bring Chandan Mitra, a good debater and a reputed journalist, giving BJP a strong publicity.

4. Last but not least, all parties in Bengal are fielding high-voltage intellectuals/professionals. Rabble-rousing street-fighters are out. Keeping with this change in the wind, BJP's Hooghly move is just fine. If Mitra-ji sticks around even after this election, then it'll give BJP plenty of mileage in near-long term.

5. A slightly off-topic: For sometime I have been advocating to some bigshots to move Pioneer to Kolkata from Lucknow. If Pioneer can somehow finds a foothold in Bengal then it can give a striong push to a nationalistic forces in Bengal/Eastern India.
Atri
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Atri »

gandharva wrote:Image

Never knew "Lottas" existed in MH as well. But Raghunath Rao was born in MH onlee.
storm in teacup. phoosss onlee.. nothing happened.
Ramana ji,

If my guess is correct, SS wont do anything now, BJP-SS will go into LS 2014 as partners. But I am sure, SS will do its best to sabotage BJP at the ground level, at least in the Mumbai seats.
as I said earlier, this is where MNS comes into picture - to negate the potential sabotage. or so is the calculation of bJP. what actually transpires will be clear on 16th.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sanku »

Atri wrote: storm in teacup. phoosss onlee.. nothing happened.
Quite so, even me, the normally unflappable about these media reports, was worried for a while.
Hari Seldon
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Hari Seldon »

From TN on teetar. TIFWIW onlee.

NR Vithobha ‏@NR_Tatvamasi 21m
RT @emanin RT @anbu DMDK quits BJP alliance.. Likely to join DMK.. 8 seats Likely to meet Karuna at 4 pm
RajeshA
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

#Gapten should get Ghanta!

I think TN BJP should however take Dr.Krishnaswamy's Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) from DMK alliance. Give them two seats!
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by krishnan »

Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 1h

Solved the Muslim vote bank problem with the help of Sufis
what ever this means
Gus
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Gus »

Rajesh_A - from what i see in news, it is only the original kongu party led by best ramasamy that is thinking of joining admk and he says because bjp is not talking to him.

probably because the original is now a shell and both the breakaways - the easwaran and nagaraj led parties are firmly in bjp camp.
Muppalla
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Muppalla »

Sanku wrote:
Atri wrote: storm in teacup. phoosss onlee.. nothing happened.
Quite so, even me, the normally unflappable about these media reports, was worried for a while.
It was not media reports. SS did it before retraction.
RajeshA
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by RajeshA »

Gus wrote:Rajesh_A - from what i see in news, it is only the original kongu party led by best ramasamy that is thinking of joining admk and he says because bjp is not talking to him.

probably because the original is now a shell and both the breakaways - the easwaran and nagaraj led parties are firmly in bjp camp.
So which of the two parties get to put up a LS candidate. BJP was planning on giving KMK only one seat! Does it mean a new tug of war?
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

krishnan wrote:
Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 1h

Solved the Muslim vote bank problem with the help of Sufis
what ever this means
Just like AK has andh bhakts, Swamy also has plenty of them. He plays to his gallery
Comer
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Comer »

RajeshA wrote:
Gus wrote:Rajesh_A - from what i see in news, it is only the original kongu party led by best ramasamy that is thinking of joining admk and he says because bjp is not talking to him.

probably because the original is now a shell and both the breakaways - the easwaran and nagaraj led parties are firmly in bjp camp.
So which of the two parties get to put up a LS candidate. BJP was planning on giving KMK only one seat! Does it mean a new tug of war?
This party seems to be in confusion mode all the time.Similar thing happened in Assembly elections
sum
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by sum »

muraliravi wrote:
Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 1h

Solved the Muslim vote bank problem with the help of Sufis
what ever this means

Just like AK has andh bhakts, Swamy also has plenty of them. He plays to his gallery
SS keeps talking a lot( in various TV shows) about how the Shias have been weaned away from usual vote-bank.

Guess some back door efforts with some sufi and shia clerics to gets their votes to BJP?
ramana
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

muraliravi and nageshks, Another data point for you

Venkiah Naidu in Hindu

NDA will review all last minute appointments including Sheela Dikshit

The BJP veteran said that with growing support for the NDA, the BJP is confident of winning at least half of the 132 seats in the southern States. While it has a strong base in Karnataka and in an undivided Andhra Pradesh, new allies joining the party in Tamil Nadu and social organisations extending support to Mr. Modi in Kerala have brightened the chances of the NDA, Mr. Naidu averred.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

132 includes Goa + AP +KA+ TN+ Pondicherry +KE

BJP will get 2 + 2 + (Allies - 15) + 12-20 + 2 + 7 (allies) + 1-2

= Best case BJP 29 and allies (22) = 52
ramana
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

So 52 instead of 66 as he says?
fanne
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

ya there is some hyperbole, why not
gandharva
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by gandharva »

Aadhaar a 'fraud', will review it if voted to power: BJP

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/gene ... mesofindia
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

fanne wrote:132 includes Goa + AP +KA+ TN+ Pondicherry +KE

BJP will get 2 + 2 + (Allies - 15) + 12-20 + 2 + 7 (allies) + 1-2

= Best case BJP 29 and allies (22) = 52
Fanne ji,

Please dont buy into venkiah's highly exaggerated claims, lets put some reality.

Goa: South Goa (previously Marmugao seat) has been won by BJP only once in 1999, is a very christian dominated seat and I dont see any hope of wresting that this time either. So they will get 1 seat of North Goa (best or worst case)

AP: Maybe they can get 2 in best case and TDP can get 15 in best case

KA: Best case is 15, even that is too much.

TN: Take this from me, BJP will get a big zero (best or worst case), its allies may get the 7 seats

Kerala: Big zero best or worst case

So best case, BJP 18, allies 22, so total not more than 40.
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

ramana wrote:muraliravi and nageshks, Another data point for you

Venkiah Naidu in Hindu

NDA will review all last minute appointments including Sheela Dikshit

The BJP veteran said that with growing support for the NDA, the BJP is confident of winning at least half of the 132 seats in the southern States. While it has a strong base in Karnataka and in an undivided Andhra Pradesh, new allies joining the party in Tamil Nadu and social organisations extending support to Mr. Modi in Kerala have brightened the chances of the NDA, Mr. Naidu averred.
Mr. Naidu,

Please tell me what are you drinking, I desperately need that, please sir, please

Disclaimer, if he is referring to TDP as part of NDA and hence base in AP, then I am wrong, otherwise, I am sure his drink is awesome.

Just becos there is a modi wave, he cant claim pigs will fly, i mean if he says we will sweep jharkhand or bihar or Uttarakhand, i can agree, but kerala, TN, the wish list seems endless.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

Ok,

So let me post some good news also, the satta market is usually near correct

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 858540.cms

The article has some interesting facts, do read it
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by gandharva »

muraliravi wrote:Ok,

So let me post some good news also, the satta market is usually near correct

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 858540.cms

The article has some interesting facts, do read it
If i am correct many people turned pauper in 2004.
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

gandharva wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Ok,

So let me post some good news also, the satta market is usually near correct

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 858540.cms

The article has some interesting facts, do read it
If i am correct many people turned pauper in 2004.
They got it right in 2009,

http://m.economictimes.com/news/politic ... 360078.cms
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by gandharva »

Image
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Mort Walker »

Satta bazzar is saying BJP 200 on the low end, which corresponds to ~10% more than the 1999 total of around 182.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

muraliravi wrote: Fanne ji,

Please dont buy into venkiah's highly exaggerated claims, lets put some reality.

Goa: South Goa (previously Marmugao seat) has been won by BJP only once in 1999, is a very christian dominated seat and I dont see any hope of wresting that this time either. So they will get 1 seat of North Goa (best or worst case)
South Goa is possible, and BJP did win majority in many South Goa seats in Assembly. So - I won't write off this one for the BJP. Best case for BJP in Goa-2.
AP: Maybe they can get 2 in best case and TDP can get 15 in best case
If they go in alliance with TDP, they may get 2-3. Otherwise, take it from me, BJP will get a big 0 here.
KA: Best case is 15, even that is too much.
Agree here. 15 is best case. More likely to be in 10-12 range.
TN: Take this from me, BJP will get a big zero (best or worst case), its allies may get the 7 seats
I have hope that Pon Radhakrishnan will win from Kanyakumari (if they manage to announce the list for TN before election, that is). Otherwise, as you say, BJP will get 0.
Kerala: Big zero best or worst case
BJP is in a bitter fight in Thiruvananthapuram. Possible to win here if Left-Cong don't do match fixing. More importantly, though, Left is going to be wiped out in Malabar. Whether BJP wins or not, they are going to end up splitting the Left vote in Kerala.
So best case, BJP 18, allies 22, so total not more than 40.
Best case: BJP 22, Allies 20-25. Total best: 45.
muraliravi
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by muraliravi »

^^^ agree sir. But anything more than that is very difficult.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SanjayC »

gandharva wrote:If i am correct many people turned pauper in 2004.
Due to EVMs. The results took even pollsters by surprise as all their predictions turned wrong, something which had never happened before.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Mort Walker »

For 2009

CNN-IBN–CSDS 8 Jan to 15/09 UPA 215–235, NDA 165–185, Others 125–155
Actual: UPA 262, NDA 159, Third Front 79
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by krishnan »

namo has changed the way election is being fought in TN, bot AIADMK and DMK have come out with manifestos which dont have much freebies
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

muraliravi wrote:^^^ agree sir. But anything more than that is very difficult.
I had so many hopes for TN. That BJP would secure some 10-12% of the total vote and build itself a position to leverage in the next Assembly. But no - they had to screw it all up by tying up with that Drunkard, giving him 14 seats! First SA, now TN - BJP screwing itself through its own caution and conservative thinking. No imagination, no bold thinking or action left.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by vic »

BJP club that wants to restrict BJP to 160 is out in open.


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 634362.cms
ramana
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Nageshks,
Maybe the are. burnt and now cautious. AP had a undercurrent now lost.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by niran »

Anything out of ordinary and folks here starts cowering in dark corners,
Shivsena needed to be told the reality i.e
MNS has better support and cadres as things stand now SS needs Bjp and
MNS not the other way around. either UT see the lights or perish was the message to him
the current drama is just face saving exercise
the current number show 310 for bjp 353 for NDA
this data is computed mohalla wise per constituencies not sample surveys,

now for some speculations
MMJ gonna contest from Gujarat
Ilahabad Shweta Tiwary will contest against Madhuri formerly dixit
OP Sahi will work in a party post
RNS will contest from Chandauli in place of his son or Balia .
niran
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by niran »

Some more speculation
Hema malini will contest from Mathura
Gen.VK Singh from jhunjhanu Rajasthan
there are 12 names in consideration for Jaunpur
against whatshisname bhojpuri actor
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Anindya »

Sushma Swaraj has been suspect for a while now. I see little chance of her becoming PM - Mamata might have a better chance.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by kapilrdave »

niran babu,

MMJ form Gandhinagar? There is no other seat I can think of in GJ. But for that red lord has to go somewhere else. My guess (or rather a wish) is that in that case he will not contest and wait for his turn to smell mughal garden.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by gandharva »

Shri Ram Kripal Yadav joins BJP



It's Big. Almost like ShivGopal Yadav leaving Mulayam and joining BJP.
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