Bharat Rakshak

Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile "Our efforts to understand the origins of this pandemic will not rest," says
US President Biden in a statement after receiving classified intelligence review of COVID19 origins.
Statement by President Joe Biden on the Investigation into the Origins of COVID-⁠19

Here is - unclassified version from ODNI

*** UNCLASSIFIED ***
Key Takeaways:

 One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. These analysts give weight to the inherently risky nature of work on coronaviruses.
 Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information, with some analysts favoring natural origin, others a laboratory origin, and some seeing the hypotheses as equally likely.

Hari Seldon wrote:Naive pooch: Are he above figs counting doses or people (latter need 2 doses per person). Since it is shipments data, I'd say the former.

Still far away from 3/4th of popn (excluding <18 y.o) if people are the metric though substantial protection is recorded even for partially vaxed folks.

Only.

Amber G. wrote:Okay - Here is "Third wave scenario"
(Let us see how good this prediction is )
(Save this post)
(All credit to SUTRA Team - many/most graphs are from their published sites and if you share - please acknowledge it)
(Historic - check out my posts in brf - last year's prediction (done pre-sutra era) were quite accurate - in fact in graphs I posted last year in fall the prediction went up to end of February and were quite in agreement with actual data.

All parameters had a change in March/April - especially beta... delta variant and the wave which we never thought will come to India was extremely devastating.

But here we are again - see how accurate we are!

Hopefully a small ripple in October - which may become smaller if people only act sensibly.



We assume:
Vaccine rates: 5M/day Ave in July (We need another in 80M by the end of this month)
6M/day average in August.
9M/day in September, October and November.

We also assume: (Conservatively)

30% people gets immunity after one month after the first dose.
60% people gets immunity after one month after the second dose.
40% of the people who got covid before the second wave lose their immunity after 3 months - rest are immune.
20% of the people who got covid after the second wave (delta) lose their immunity after 3 months
beta (which is around .25 now but was worse about 0.4 in beginning of the second wave) becomes 0.4 around the August end but does NOT go higher. (NO NEW Variant)

Then we have "optimistic" - green curve - A ripple.

If vaccine rates are not that high or say effectiveness falls to 25% (one shot) and 50% (two shots) from 30/60.
We have "Intermediate scenario - still virtually same as optimistic one.

BUT if we get a 25% more transmissive variant then Delta - we get the pessimistic purple curve- The peak is about as high as the second wave. ( Delta+ and Lamda - from the data may be more dangerous but they are similar to Delta in term of transitiveness).

---
The BIGGEST Impact, IMO one can make is use of *masks* -- it can *really* bring down the peak.
Vaccinations, while extremely important - need to be kept above 5-6 M/day in next month or two and then go up to 9-10 M/day but higher vaccine rates alone, if crowds etc are not managed may not be the answer. (Many reasons - it takes a few months for vaccine to take effect and we have to stop the spread via more effective way).

If you want to do your own calculations - here are the (current) parameters for India....
beta = 0.25 , eta=.0014, epsilon = .033, gamma = .1, rho = 90%,

jamwal wrote:I got my 2nd dose in a govt run center. First one was in expensive private hospital where I had to wait in line at two counters, fill up long paper forms and no one caring about maintaining distance. Then the medical workers provided no information about anything. Just, "sit here, show your arm and wait for 30 minutes in a crowded lobby."

The govt one had 2 counters too, run by Civil Defence workers. The nurses explained the details and precautions and whole process took no more than 20 minutes and no paper work compared to 90+ in private hospital. Admittedly, there was a bit of rush at the hospital, but seems like govt can do a few jobs well. Wouldn't have expected it earlier.

hnair wrote:Suraj, do you have a post or tweet about breakup of vaccine manufacturing numbers by manufacturer? Only clear number available in articles is the 150 mill per month of SII.

Suraj wrote:PIB numbers are beginning to look mind-numbingly large now.

Aug 31 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1750863 65,12,14,767
Sep 01 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1751205 66,17,38,647

Day on day: 1,05,23,880

Another boring 10 million day folks, nothing to see here. It's only been THREE 10M days in the past 7 now - Aug 27, Aug 31 and now Sep 1.

Suraj wrote:

Snip....


Another boring 10 million day folks, nothing to see here. It's only been THREE 10M days in the past 7 now - Aug 27, Aug 31 and now Sep 1.

Mort Walker wrote:... I predict next year that Indian pharma companies will vaccinate billions across the globe.

Pratyush wrote:Suraj, well done for another excellent article.

https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/how-augus ... ion-effort

Although ZyCoV-D’s efficacy seems to be lower than the 90% or higher achieved by some mRNA vaccines, the figures are not comparable, says Jameel. The ZyCoV-D trials in India earlier this year were conducted while the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was the dominant variant in circulation, whereas earlier mRNA vaccine trials were conducted when less transmissible variants were circulating. “The efficacy is essentially against the Delta variant, so that is pretty good,” he says.

A population larger than almost all the countries of the world and a healthcare infrastructure that is barely adequate for it — these were two of the biggest challenges Uttar Pradesh had to face in its vaccination drive.

Contrary to what many would have hoped for or wished for, India’s vaccination drive has been an unprecedented success with more than 60 crore doses administered until the second day of September.

The magnificence of the success lies in the magnitude of the scale, given the geographical challenges, the socio-economic realities on the ground, and more importantly, the unexplainable hesitancy amongst the citizens the government, both at the Centre and states, were required to address during the drive.

Shivesh Pandey, another resident of Uttar Pradesh, elaborated on the rampant vaccine fear in his conversation with Swarajya. In some places, people were refusing to come out of their homes, and there were also rumours of people running from the villages to escape the vaccine in the earlier weeks. However, all that changed as primary teachers and anganwadi workers were engaged to spread awareness across the villages, more than 90,000 of them.

Narrating his experience from the ground, Pandey elaborated on the importance of the Prime Minister and Chief Minister leading from the front. "When people, who do not understand the disease, its origins or consequences, witness the PM or the CM taking the jab, it instills some confidence in them."

Thus, setting up a vaccination site, one for every 20 villages, on an average, the state government overcame a number of challenges in one go. Further, the Aadhaar-based documentation process carried out by the primary teachers and other anganwadi workers aided the follow-up process for registration, and will also be helpful in the future for the administration of the second dose, and if needed, a booster dose.

The success of the Yogi Adityanath government can be imagined as an equivalent to vaccinating the entire country of Thailand or the United Kingdom or Italy or Spain 1.5 times or Canada twice or Australia thrice. Thus, it turns out, the monk in the saffron suit has attained success many in the Western world can only dream of replicating.

We're grateful that Indian govt delivered oxygen & oxygen concentrators just in time to save thousands of lives. It was delivered by an Indian Navy ship. We will never forget this. A friend in need is a friend indeed

We're having a discussion on vaccines. We understand India has restrictions on the export of vaccines. We hope when India vaccinates all its population, Vietnam will be one of the countries that will be able to access vaccines produced in India: Ambassador of Vietnam to India

Amber G. wrote:^^As of 7PM according to PIB the number is about 595 Million ( 594,765,751) (Delta = 6,544,128)
Interesting statistics:
First 100 Million - 85 days
Second 100 Million - 45 days
Third 100 Million - 29 days
Fourth 100 Million - 24 days
Fifth 100 Million - 20 days!
Sixth 100 Million - 19 days.. (Will reach by August 25. 7PM)
(Can we get it to 10 days!)