West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

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vijaykarthik
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vijaykarthik »

Singha, if Suleimani isn't there, there is no Iraqi / Kurdish ground troop that can get going. As simple as that.

the al-Badr brigade, the Hezbollah, the shia militias... all of them report to him. And he just got an image change recently after the possibility of the US deal. All the while it was covert which became overt in the last 6-8 months, IIRC.

In an interesting move, Iran and Yemen have got into a civvy airliner agreement. Per NW. Heh. If its benign, its all ok. If it were for other reasons, KSA has every reason to shiver.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Vikas »

How would KSA, Israel, USA and other Sunni powers react to Iran taking a lead in Iraq affairs by direct intervention. ISIS may be ba$turds but they are KSA's b@sturds.
I wonder if ISIS would be left to rot against Shia onslaught by Arab powers. ISIS may still lose Tikrit but this wont be the end of ISIS steamroller or beginning of Shia domination in war theater of Iraq and Syria.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vijaykarthik »

^^ they (KSA, Jordan, etc) might make a move in Yemen? But I sometimes wonder: who will Israel hate even more - the Shia Iran or the Wahabbi IS?

Does anyone have an idea about which way the wind is blowing reg Israel. I remember reading a fair bit of sr intelligence officers mentioning earlier that the IS was a bigger threa
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

vijaykarthik, Israel is between Scylla and Charybdis or rock and hard place.
Both options are bad. Only Shia option is softer.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by RoyG »

The Israelis are like Pakis in that they want to remain the entire region to be like the fire in the masters quarters. As long as everything burns and they have a nice wall, they will be the only real power in the region.

The Persians are coming for them though and they're smart. They're keeping a low profile and trying to industrialize unlike those Arab buffoons who they're surrounded by.

It's only a matter of time before Shia Islam gets sidelined for soft Zoroastrianism. They were the first of the Abrahamics, not the Jews.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

some kind of civilian flights have already started between iran to yemen. this might be a pressure point iran is developing to make the KSA leave the ISIS to die under shia-kurd bullets else iran will fan the flame in saudi shia populated eastern regions.

KSA if they are smart will let the ISIS to die because ISIS will slaughter the saudi elites if they get a chance and they have promised to raze makkah and madina to the ground to enforce their no-monument form of islam.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23tikrit&mode=photos

seems like encirclement from the west is not yet completed unless some other iraqi units are quietly lying in wait......its important to seal off all escape routes first to the north and west to ensure all ISIS who are in Tikrit are snagged in the closing net.

mixed in with the iraqi SF units will likely be units of Quds force volunteers....
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

footage of a intense night battle near Tikrit.....lots of tracers...in the end you can see Iraqi AF gunship heli nail some isis vehicles/strongpoints with rockets fired from close range... ZSU-23-4 type vehicle fires one burst at direction of the heli before its hammered by the rockets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fumpNsJCzrQ

the helicoper looks like a rudra type not a apache/hind so must be iraqi AF. they have also got Mi28N gunships from russia.
could be the armed version of the Bell407 http://www.aero-news.net/images/content ... 605-1a.jpg
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by RoyG »

Singha wrote:footage of a intense night battle near Tikrit.....lots of tracers...in the end you can see Iraqi AF gunship heli nail some isis vehicles/strongpoints with rockets fired from close range... ZSU-23-4 type vehicle fires one burst at direction of the heli before its hammered by the rockets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fumpNsJCzrQ

the helicoper looks like a rudra type not a apache/hind so must be iraqi AF. they have also got Mi28N gunships from russia.
could be the armed version of the Bell407 http://www.aero-news.net/images/content ... 605-1a.jpg
Good find. These are very exciting times we're living in. ISIS will be killed off or confined. How else are they going to build a pipeline to supply Europe and avoid any backlash?

Iran has really taken half of Iraq. Unbelievable. These guys are really sophisticated in the way they have pushed back against the Israelis and Americans. I still remember how bad the sanctions were and the US backed protests taking place in Tehran.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

twitter: iraqi unit in tikrit claim to have killed the jordanian-bartania cleric Abu Qutada who had only got acquitted in jordan retrial in Sept, 2014. looks like he has been a busy boy since then if report be true.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/article7 ... Qatada.jpg
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

@petolucem on twitter is posting a series of maps. this one is latest.
Image
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

But who will be acceptable to all as the new Caliph? Baghdadi? Unacceptable to the West.We could have a poll.I suggest an infamous rascal,ex-Pres.,General.He is of impeccable Paki vermin "descent",pun intended,and on bum-chum terms with the Saudis and the Yanquis,has a parking lot in Poodleistan and is a great and renowned military zero...oops! Hero.
Field Mouse Mush-a-rat of Kargil!
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

problem for TSP is they are caught between iran(shia) and india so they have no contiguous border with their beloved arab heartland and cannot send 1000s of highly motivated sunni fighters on the cheap to fight for the ISIS.

this gates their ability to influence the ground situation in the middle east and be a power broker .
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

Al badr explosives disposal squad clearing out IEDs and mines on a road..they are lacking in the engg equipment like tank ploughs to do this safer way.
https://twitter.com/Terror_Monitor/stat ... 9726103552

a shia feed from pakistan but they have pics of slain ISIS swine in middle east as well...one abu hafsa type reporter got a bullet through his cheek into the head .. not looking so smart now.
https://twitter.com/ShiaWehdatNews
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vijaykarthik »

One more bkgrnd dev. Interesting too.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/140fe72c ... z3TJ1O1OyR

One more cartoon character western supported rebel faction has dissolved. So qn that's moot - who do they join now?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

what were the relations between the assad govt and the kurds? were the syrians kurds are war with assad govt before ISIS came along? or they were just fighting turkey?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

some high level IS commander named Abu Obaidah Al-tunisi (tunisian) reported kia by Govt forces. its impossible to know their real identity as they all change their names after joining isis.

consumption of ammo is now biggest problem for isis as they fight a defensive battle in prepared positions. the iraqi army will probably sleep in the day, using artillery to attrit any known ISIS strongpoints and move forward at night.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Dilbu »

Iran is involved in Iraq more deeply than anyone can guess. In badghdad there are now posters of a slain Iranian militia leader all over the place . They are running the show for now.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

Tikrit advance v.slow.Media reports.

Drought,million+ in poverty,migration to cities,etc. caused social unrest,civil war.HUman caused climate change reason for drought.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... rming.html
Syria's civil war 'linked to global warming'
Syria may have fallen into its vicious civil war due, in part, to a drought caused by climate change in what scientists say is strongest connection between violence and human-caused climate change.

PS:Why O'Bumbler/Bomber desperately wants a deal with the Iranians on the N-issue,so that the Iraqis can control the spread of ISIS.Bibi N knowing this wants to allegedly sabotage the same,as it will allow Iran a foot into the White House (camel's nose inside the tent),to the detriment of Israel's interests.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vijaykarthik »

Singha wrote:what were the relations between the assad govt and the kurds? were the syrians kurds are war with assad govt before ISIS came along? or they were just fighting turkey?
It was a tactical unspoken agreement. Kurds got a fair bit of devolution and since they were taking care of their regions well and they weren't really after the govt forces, they were allowed to keep their land. And they ofcourse kept out the rebels. The govt forces didn't go to these areas [but if I were to stick my neck out, they might've got the same treatment as the rebels too?]
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vijaykarthik »

Shiny new moves from Salman. Whats the idea behind it. Looks like a closer hand on oil prices.

Mmh.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/ ... sinessNews
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

if the kurds tie up with the Govt and the dissolved bands of rebels agree to go home and give up their weapons in exchange for a pardon, the entire belt between aleppo and homs would fall into govt hands and the stage set to surround the caliphate from the west and south what he iraqis will do from the east and kurds from north-east by the coming winter by taking mosul.

this tiny rump of a caliphate in north-east corner of syria would then have one out let - Turkey.

while Turkey is gladly making $$ and probably fanning the flames by letting ISIS cross the border , the fun will start when the ISIS attempt to spread the caliphate into eastern turkey as a last resort.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

iraqi govt is advancing carefully into tikrit districts...no hurry...care must be taken to neutralize snipers and IEDs and prevent hidden bypassed groups of IS from staging ambush at night or escaping the scene.

probably in one week the town will be in govt hands and residents will point out the IS still trying to blend in.

the IS will likely be lined up and shot like dogs by the shia Al-badr militias and the sunni tribes for the massacres they have done over the past year.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

mood seems upbeat in this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWfoNIyWbTQ

only ones getting panties into a knot and saying any victory would be communal are the western think tank sock puppets...as if shia freeing the sunni is something to be ashamed of. the usual prophets who predicted India would not exist as a country in 50 years after 1947.

the US has not been asked to help, iran is running the show from a village 50km to the east at the invitation of the iraqi govt and the shia militias say they do not trust the coalition much :D
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vijaykarthik »

^^ that's precisely what upsets them. How can Iran do so much when US cant... that too w/o US EW, intelligence assets etc etc. But I do believe that the US covertly shares a fair bit of intelligence and recce missions and all that. Even James Clapper refused to give details about specific intelligence missions when asked pointedly.

But is it that you actually saw Iraqi helicopters? I thought News reports said that Iraqi airforce isn't taking part? Confused.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vijaykarthik »

In another related dev:

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/p ... i=16328401

Looks like KSA is looking at a security overview from their client state.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmeOOB9EzM4

IS suicide attack on a convoy of vehicles heading around tikrit.....looking at blast must be atleast a truck full of explosive

the Iraqi AF Is definitely taking part with all they have. the rest of gulf 'all-lies' and usaf are sitting out for now.
the AF is attacking targets not just in tikrit but in other IS occupied cities as well.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Lalmohan »

apparently the UAE have resumed air ops according to a news site i read recently, but possibly not near to where iranian af may be operating (my guess)

the footage of the tracer fire exchange looked very interesting - looked like the other guy was getting awful close. possibly both groups firing 0.5inch or 23mm rounds?

the helicopters also clear operating with some degree of night vision and targeting... looked like a hind to me
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

http://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/ ... XMPEB220EZ

this is a 106mm jeep mounted mini MLRS of sorts. sounds useful for local assault support. one of the things IA can learn from the bush wars in the middle east and africa is how to use units of fast moving COTS rugged nissan and toyota pickup trucks as raiding forces to hit at one place, disappear and then reappear in another......we used to have it at one point in a limited way in the para SF unit where HH Bhawani Singh (iirc) used his own money to buy land rovers for his unit and led them raiding into TSP in 1965. we have since lost it in the ponderous BMP-T72 combo. till date we lack a proper light recce vehicle of the KMW Fennec sort.

Suleimani general taking a tea break...the iraqis seem to adore him and crowd around him as a rock star taking a pic with fans. hopefully he will ensure the encirclement is secure and tight (in the OP Uranus/Khalkin gol fashion) and then slowly squeeze the ring.....some ISIS version of Gen herman hoth ie. Abu Tanki Al-Berlini :-? could mount a strong attack from the north to break the ring, link up with a strong column of escaping defenders and lead them to safety, so a good blocking force needs to be sited on the roads leading north to Mosul and a 24x7 scouting done to see if anyone is coming south in strength.
http://pic.twitter.com/Opmzwqm1rj

the helicoper pilot was really good...nailed his targets without wasted ammo and then exited quickly. the gunners heard him coming at the last moment, traversed left and unleashed a burst but too late.
I think the ISIS were using jeep mounted or towed ZSU-23-2 cannons looking at the parallel lines of tracers and HMGs as well. the Iraqis were using some HMGs and cannons on the back of pickups and hummers probably.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

http://pic.twitter.com/EfUKDZyMjM

Iraqi special forces unit

Syria govt and hezbollah together have started an offensive in the west
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syr ... offensive/

report on places captured in and around tikrit
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ira ... is-tikrit/
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

Bibi fires salvo from Congress at O'Bomber.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... gress.html
Netanyahu accuses Obama of risking "nuclear arms race" with Iran deal
Israeli prime minister tells Congress the emerging deal "all but guarantees" that Iran will build nuclear weapons, leading Obama to give icy rebuttal .
By Raf Sanchez, Washington
03 Mar 2015
Benjamin Netanyahu tore apart diplomatic protocol on Tuesday by launching an extraordinary attack on Barack Obama, accusing the president of accepting a nuclear deal "that paves Iran's path to the bomb".

In a stinging speech before the US Congress, the Israeli prime minister excoriated Mr Obama in his own capital, denouncing every aspect of the president’s policy towards Iran.

Mr Netanyahu urged America to walk away from the "very bad deal" that he said was taking shape over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Invoking the history of Jewish struggle, from slavery under the Pharaohs to the Holocaust, the prime minister implied that Mr Obama was abandoning Israel to a "genocidal enemy" and said the supposed deal "could well threaten the survival of my country".

Mr Netanyahu issued a thinly-veiled threat that Israel may launch unilateral strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities even if an agreement were signed, saying: “If Israel has to stand alone, Israel will stand".

Live broadcasting ban for Benjamin Netanyahu's speech to US Congress
02 Mar 2015
Benjamin Netanyahu arrives in Washington on mission to thwart Iran deal
02 Mar 2015

America and Iran are trying to negotiate a deal to constrain Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. John Kerry, the US secretary of state, met his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, in Switzerland on Monday and again on Tuesday.

Mr Netanyahu broke the unwritten rules of diplomatic etiquette by disclosing what he claimed were details of an emerging agreement. “If the deal now being negotiated is accepted by Iran, that deal will not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. It would all but guarantee that Iran gets those weapons, lots of them,” he said. “Certain elements of any potential deal are now a matter of public record. You don't need intelligence agencies and secret information to know this. You can Google it.”

Mr Netanyahu said the emerging deal would allow Iran to keep a “nuclear infrastructure” consisting of “thousands of centrifuges” to enrich uranium.

Any constraints on Iran’s nuclear programme would be temporary, he added. “Iran could get to the bomb by keeping the deal because virtually all the restrictions on Iran's nuclear programme will automatically expire in about a decade,” said Mr Netanyahu. “That's why this deal is so bad. It doesn't block Iran's path to the bomb; it paves Iran's path to the bomb.”

Democrats in Congress, torn between loyalty to Mr Obama and their support for Israel, sat uncomfortably through the speech. As Mr Netanyahu spoke this latter paragraph, they remained firmly in their seats while Republicans rose and applauded.

White House officials were shocked by the vehemence of Mr Netanyahu’s speech, which comes exactly two weeks before Israel will hold a general election.

Nancy Pelosi, the leader of the Democrats in the House of Representatives, denounced the address as "an insult to the intelligence of the United States". She added: "I was near tears through the prime minister's speech.”

Mr Netanyahu's brazen performance represented a high stakes gamble. He hopes the speech will help him to secure re-election in Israel after six years as prime minister. Mr Netanyahu also hopes that it will galvanise Republicans and some Democrats to derail the nuclear deal which he clearly believes is imminent.

Mr Netanyahu painted an apocalyptic picture of what might happen if an agreement with Iran is signed. “A deal that's supposed to prevent nuclear proliferation would instead spark a nuclear arms race in the most dangerous part of the planet,” he said. “This deal won't be a farewell to arms. It would be a farewell to arms control. And the Middle East would soon be criss-crossed by nuclear tripwires. A region where small skirmishes can trigger big wars would turn into a nuclear tinderbox.”

If Mr Obama got his way, Mr Netanyahu predicted: “We'll face a much more dangerous Iran, a Middle East littered with nuclear bombs and a countdown to a potential nuclear nightmare.”

This would "inexorably lead to a nuclear-armed Iran whose unbridled aggression will inevitably lead to war".

Mr Netanyahu implored America to hold out for a “better deal”. Iran’s nuclear programme should remain strictly constrained until the country ends its “aggression in the region”, stops “sponsoring terrorism” and stops “threatening to annihilate my country, Israel, the one and only Jewish state”.

In an extraordinary rhetorical flourish, Mr Netanyahu gestured towards Elie Weisel, a prominent Holocaust survivor sitting in the gallery, and implied the Jewish people were once again facing an existential threat. "I can only urge the leaders of the world not to repeat the mistakes of the past," he said.

Mr Netanyahu also pointed to an image of Moses in the chamber of the House of Representatives as he urged the US to be "strong and resolute" in opposing Iran.

Afterwards, Mr Obama delivered an icy response to the prime minister. "I am not focused in the politics of this, I am not focused on the theatre," he said. "On the core issue, which is how to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon which would make it far more dangerous, the prime minister did not offer any viable alternatives."

Mr Obama added: "We don't yet have a deal. But if we are successful, then in fact this will be the best deal possible with to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapon."


Even if the president's negotiators reach a deal with Iran’s representatives in Switzerland, the White House would face a domestic battle to implement the accord. Republicans and some Democrats are demanding that the final terms should be submitted to a vote in Congress, where Mr Obama's opponents control both chambers.

Any deal would probably include a staged lifting of economic sanctions against Iran. Mr Obama can suspend some sanctions on his own, but he will need a vote in Congress to permanently remove them. Mr Netanyahu clearly hopes that his speech will help to persuade Republicans and many pro-Israel Democrats to fight any easing of the pressure on Iran.
Frankly speaking,Israel,being so small territory-wise cannot afford a maniacal enemy successfully detonating even a single WMD.It would be akin to a second holocaust. The problem of proliferation is exacerbated by the rogue states of NoKo,Pakistan and China too,who supplied Pak with their bomb designs and material. Who is to stop them from handing over to the IS "Caliph" at some time in the future a WMD for use against Israel? The use of "stateless" actors like the Taliban,Al Q or IS-yet to establish its "capital",makes it harder for Israel to extract revenge in case of such an attack.It can only warn the sponsors of IS,etc.,that swift retribution will follow upon their heads should such an attack ever take place,as they are turning a blind eye to the support that these maniacal,psycopathic Islamic fundoos are receiving from highly placed individuals within the oil-producing Arab world.

The P-5 N-powers and UN must share the major responsibility of WMD proliferation globally,as they've done b*gger all to reduce their arsenals esp. in the age of advanced conventional weaponry,like PGMs and drones. Without any meaningful progress on reduction of N-forces,smaller states who feel threatened by the N-powers will only accelerate their efforts to obtain them using any means,"eating grass" if need be. Why a tiny island state like Britain,that has "lost an empire",who "nobody listens too",must possess a fleet of Trident SSBNs with hundreds of n-warheads is an absurdity.It speaks of the megalomania of some of that nation's leaders. even the Falklands.Malvinas in the fullness of time will return to Argentinian control.The Argie condor needs to be a patient bird!
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Hitesh »

If Israel is so afraid of Iran getting the nuke and wants other countries to force Iran to give up the nuke, then Israel needs to give up its nuke as an example. Then only can Israel claim the moral ground. Otherwise, it just sounds like Israel wants US to fight its battles for her.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by svenkat »

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/03/03/full-text-netanyahus-address-to-congress/
So when it comes to Iran and ISIS, the enemy of your enemy is your enemy.

(APPLAUSE)

The difference is that ISIS is armed with butcher knives, captured weapons and YouTube, whereas Iran could soon be armed with intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear bombs. We must always remember -- I'll say it one more time -- the greatest dangers facing our world is the marriage of militant Islam with nuclear weapons. To defeat ISIS and let Iran get nuclear weapons would be to win the battle, but lose the war. We can't let that happen.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Shreeman »

Even Netanyahu's best friends would admit the man is a kook, gone off the rails. Before congress, his last stunt at UN made Ahmedinejad and Colin bin Powell look good. Check out the speech and illustrations. And he has single handedly distanced israel from white house for the next two years.

What is he going to do? Attack Iran now? In the tiny area they occupy, a single conventional IRBM, no, heck a large hezbullah rocket, wait a small hamas rocket can take out a nukular plant and create a dirty powderkeg for the entire syria to egypt region.

And he hasnt the strength to take on iran on the ground. And america isnt, just isnt fighting his war. Obama isnt bombing iran at thesame time as the isil, yemen, lybia, syria crises.

Associating with him now shows up the fools that have sold out to israeli government. And it does a great disservice to the people of israel. This man is off his meds, fell head first off the wagon, has taken an overdose and thinks he runs a caliphate of his own like that idiot erdogan who has food poisoning tests for his dinner queen cleopatra style.

The last speech asked jews to abandon europe. Who knows what the one before that said.

He is saying israel will nuke iran in so many words. He is in a race with porky, sakashvilli, and erdogan and winning by miles.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by RSoami »

Hezbollah is now forced to fight ISIS which is a nice win win for Israel. :idea:
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

Can Western journalists stop for a minute and listen to an Iraq analyst from #Tikrit
http://pic.twitter.com/gXuFQMeuvw
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

per pix posted in twitter by one isis sympathizer named GeneralShami1, the isis bandits are equipped with the PG7-VR RPG round which is a long tandem HEAT weapon with 750mm rha penetration at close range. its like a small regular rpg round glued to the tip of a fatter main warhead.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vijaykarthik »

https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/netanya ... 6f5d7ea975

Worth reading.

Net-net: Bibi is doing what he has to. Obama is doing what he has to. The rest are doing what they have to.

However, reality is teaching all of them lessons and changing the discourse and the path forward.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Its possible that Netanyahu's protestations are psy-ops to make Iran think they have a good deal.


OTH, ISIS and Iran have the most incentive to hurt Israel to bolster their place in the Islamic totem pole.

By extirpating the Israelis, Europe has transferred their problem to West Asia and by arming and abetting Wahabism they have resurrected the dangers to Israelis.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... nt_mention

video of hummers(iraqi troops) vs isis (in houses) night battle somewhere in tikrit

some comments say its just an old video of americans making a nightly patrol through Sadr city in the "good old days " :shock: talk about stirring up a nest of hornets.
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