Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 20 Mar 2014 07:07

gandharva wrote:
BJP, HJC on break-up path; Riding on Modi wave, BJP plans to go solo in Haryana

TThe change in BJP's stance comes within months of leaders like Sushma Swaraj reiterating that the parties will fight the upcoming Lok Sabha and assembly elections jointly, and shows the increasing confidence of the BJP leadership over the poll outcome. The party has also strengthened its base in Haryana by pulling some Congress heavyweights to its side in the past few months.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

This is not a wise move, particularly at this juncture. Particularly in seats like Ambala and Bhiwani, BJP may not be strong enough to win on its own. HJC has a vital 5-10% of the vote, which could mean the difference between victory and defeat. It is no exaggeration to say that Dharamveer Singh's victory in Bhiwani depends entirely on the Bishnoi votes that the HJC is bringing into the bargain. Also, the HJC has been a model ally, has done nothing to be kicked out (and in fact, in deference to Sushie auntie's wishes, they refrained from inducting Venod Sharma into their party). and BJP and HJC share the same base - urban vote, and OBCs. This overconfidence on the eve of LS polls is extremely dangerous, in my opinion. To kick out the HJC out of greed at this point would be akin to doing what NiKu did to BJP in Bihar, and I would not be surprised if the BJP in Haryana were to suffer the same fate as NiKu due to overconfidence. The BJP is not strong enough to challenge the Congress, or even Chauthala on its own. Unless, of course, all this is a ploy to get back into bed with the corrupt Chauthala (who is a pain in the neck).

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 20 Mar 2014 07:13

If i am correct, he is saying that he has RSS backing. There was another tweet mentioning Ahamad Patel with implicit meaning of Advani/Sushama carrying Sonia's order inside BJP.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 20 Mar 2014 07:24

It is fascinating to read how RSS can control BJP this much? Is this really true, or just eggsperts and MSM creation? I mean what hold does RSS really have on a political party? And why would politicians listen to RSS ?

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 20 Mar 2014 07:28

For me India will be truly united the day some male from one of the 4 Southern states starts ruling Bollywood.

If one accepts cinema as the index of popular culture,that 'true unity' is very far off.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 20 Mar 2014 07:31

RajeshA wrote:

Some stalwarts of the (anti-) Link Language thread may get a heart attack!

I am not a stalwart, but Indian government should not spread and nourish a language (like it does Hindi) at the cost of other languages. Anti-imposition and entitlement is what many opposed in the link dhaaga. There was no takleef when people picked the language per their choice - in fact that is what many welcomed.

For all practical reasons, unless something is done drastically Tamil will die the way it used to exist earlier or even now. Languages evolve, and that is natural. Only when the country enforces a language the trouble starts.

And I sense with BJP coming to power, the so-called-rightists will probably push such "homogenizing" activities - which would be a big mistake and side effect of BJP/Modi coming into power.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 20 Mar 2014 07:33

gandharva wrote: For me India will be truly united the day some male from one of the 4 Southern states starts ruling Bollywood.

If Bollywood starts producing movies in other languages, then it is truly noteworthy. A hero here and there is superficial. I heard Marathi movies are making a comeback - good onlee.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 20 Mar 2014 07:39

SwamyG wrote: And I sense with BJP coming to power, the so-called-rightists will probably push such "homogenizing" activities - which would be a big mistake and side effect of BJP/Modi coming into power.

there is absolutely no indication that NM or the people he is going to put in power has any such "homogenizing" activities (especially language) as a policy/goal.

you are just passing gas.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 20 Mar 2014 07:44

I am glad you can smell my fart.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 20 Mar 2014 08:08

SwamyG wrote:Languages evolve, and that is a natural. Only when the country enforces a language the trouble starts.

+1. Equivalent to making critical editions of literary/itihasic/historical works.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 20 Mar 2014 08:27

Singha wrote:http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/o ... 786256.ece

meet the future CM of assam, perfume baron Badruddin ajmal

Gus wrote:
SwamyG wrote: And I sense with BJP coming to power, the so-called-rightists will probably push such "homogenizing" activities - which would be a big mistake and side effect of BJP/Modi coming into power.
there is absolutely no indication that NM or the people he is going to put in power has any such "homogenizing" activities (especially language) as a policy/goal.

you are just passing gas.

SwamyG wrote:I am glad you can smell my fart.

All within a short span.

burkha dhaaga in a very very explosive situation.

Javee · Post by **Javee** » 20 Mar 2014 08:29

Gus wrote:
SwamyG wrote: And I sense with BJP coming to power, the so-called-rightists will probably push such "homogenizing" activities - which would be a big mistake and side effect of BJP/Modi coming into power.
there is absolutely no indication that NM or the people he is going to put in power has any such "homogenizing" activities (especially language) as a policy/goal.

you are just passing gas.

As long as we don't have loonies in Education and HRD ministry, then we will not have this issue. But rightly or wrongly there is a small resentment with people that BJP might heed to the loonies and start subtle imposition, MMS being a prime example. I hope he does not get any of these ministries.

I see another issue in TN BJP, they have not popularized any of the local issues yet. I was astounded to see the argument yesterday in PT made by Palaa.Karuppiah on local issues like semmozhi for Tamil or Srilankan issue, BJP speakers were unable to answer them. There has to be an effort to send unified message across the state bout BJPs stand on these local and domestic issues. Issues for the northern states are non issues here, harping them out will not get any votes.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 20 Mar 2014 08:39

RajeshA wrote:
nageshks wrote:Thanks for the highlights, MuraliRavi-ji.

Was hoping from Somnath (Junagadh), but that is too much Yindoo signalling, I suppose. Will take Vadodra.
If NaMo had taken Somnath, then later when he has to give up the one seat in Gujarat, it would be difficult making the excuse that he has taken a spiritual call to make Varanasi his dharma-bhumi!

Choosing between Vadodara and Varanasi is easy for a bleeding heart Hindu Nationalist!

Hai Husain hum na hue

But had NaMo taken Somnath alongwith Banaras than Kailash Mansarovar would have been the only place left out.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 20 Mar 2014 08:44

SwamyG wrote:
gandharva wrote: For me India will be truly united the day some male from one of the 4 Southern states starts ruling Bollywood.
If Bollywood starts producing movies in other languages, then it is truly noteworthy. A hero here and there is superficial. I heard Marathi movies are making a comeback - good onlee.

My comment was about India start loving it's own original race.Remember the Hindi movie in which Dhanush guy acted. Some magzines wrote review comments "Hero looked like a driver".

Last comment!

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 20 Mar 2014 08:51

Javee wrote: As long as we don't have loonies in Education and HRD ministry, then we will not have this issue. But rightly or wrongly there is a small resentment with people that BJP might heed to the loonies and start subtle imposition, MMS being a prime example. I hope he does not get any of these ministries.

I see another issue in TN BJP, they have not popularized any of the local issues yet. I was astounded to see the argument yesterday in PT made by Palaa.Karuppiah on local issues like semmozhi for Tamil or Srilankan issue, BJP speakers were unable to answer them. There has to be an effort to send unified message across the state bout BJPs stand on these local and domestic issues. Issues for the northern states are non issues here, harping them out will not get any votes.

Just the Left has their share of loonies, the "Right" (who like their Left counterparts) are simply aping/copying the West, have their share of loonies. India, sadly, is importing "Right" from West, and these "righties" cry against Liberalism ityadi coming from the West.

Su Swamy would be perfect candidate IMO. He is a tamil brahmin, who hates *MK parties, considers Sanskrit should be given more importance. He is a loonie waiting to be unleashed on the country.

I think Hindu Munnani has done more for the local Hindu issues, than TN BJP.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 20 Mar 2014 08:58

gandharva wrote: My comment was about India start loving it's own original race.Remember the Hindi movie in which Dhanush guy acted. Some magzines wrote review comments "Hero looked like a driver".

Last comment!

Saar, I hope my post did not come of the wrong way, I did not mean to be rude. I did not mean any offense. I do agree with you in a way. I was pointing about aspects of Bollywood and unity. Bollywood is a mirage, the actors and actresses do not represent bulk of the population. It is sheer maya.

Watching some of the video coming from all the Modi rallies, one realizes how the people are so similar across India. A stereotype that could be made from Bollywood is clean shave TFTA hunks, but the rallies show lakhs and lakhs of SDRE with moochi. Bollywood does not even represent such people.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 20 Mar 2014 09:07

OT but seems like you guys haven't heard about one gentleman named "Rajnikanth"

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 20 Mar 2014 09:08

^^^The moochewala Hindustani hero, Anil Kapoor, chose to become a sidekick in Hollywood movies. Was even slapped by some Hollycrap actress, don't remember her name.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 20 Mar 2014 09:26

Overtly or covertly countries enforce language. Rather than do it covertly and that too a foreign language, better to do it overtly that too a local language. Hindhi itself seems to be an attempt to Homogenize various languages in Central Bhaarath. Hindhi is like a diluted version of Sanskruth.

I say, if NaMo comes to power, then he should push for greater role of Sanskruth. When Sanskruth is encouraged it gives lift to all local languages because most local languages share lot of commonalities with Sanskruth. On the other hand, inglish is the major reason for undercutting of most local languages. Knowing Sanskruth also makes one realize that most Bhaarathiya languages are very similar to each other and share a lot of common words, syntax, ...etc. It also opens up the ancient literature.

Ideally, a person should know Sanskruth, one's own mother tongue and the language of trade and commerce around the world. And with the goal that someday, language of trade and commerce around the world should be either Sanskruth or one's own mother tongue.

----

ramana wrote:niran and JohneeG, Modi winning from Varanasi and becoming PM is like return of Hemu. It will finally kill Mughal Durbar.

I like Gu's idea to make Amith Shah the PM in waiting. That will ensure Modi gets the seat!!!

Ramana gaaru,
Modi wave is so strong that Modi will win any seat from where he contests in the country unless that seat has minority in majority. But the more important point is that Modi will energize the entire region from where he will contest. So, winning or losing a seat itself is a side-issue. The bigger issue is that he will have impact on the entire region itself from where he will contest.

So, knowing that lotus would want to field him from a place where he can have maximum impact. If he is fielded from strong region, then it would be wasted. If he is field from a weak region, the impact will not be realized fully. So, he has to be fielded from swing region. Then, he also has to be fielded from a place where it could have impact on maximum seats. That region is UP. Eastern UP seems to have been chosen because it can impact Vihar also.

About the seat itself:
It has to be a high-profile seat. Varanasi seems to be chosen for its Hindhuthva credentials. All in all, it was chosen for bigger reasons. Winning or losing the seat itself is a side-issue. Bigger issue is its impact on the entire region and Hindhuthva message underneath.

----
I think from Shivraj's perspective, if NaMo manages to settle down in Dilli, then his chances would be undercut. I think Shivraj would like to migrate to Dilli after 5 yrs regardless of other issues. So, by that time, he thinks NaMo will be too powerful and he may face the same issues that NaMo is facing now. So, he maybe retaining Loh Purush and Sushy aunty in Dilli, so that they can be used to enter Dilli and keep NaMo from taking hold of lotus completely.

----
Gandharva saar,
if I remember correctly, then that movie is also based around Varanasi.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 20 Mar 2014 09:31

I would be shocked if Paranjape won from Kalyan-Dombivli. That place even though it is ethnic Marathi dominated is 2nd generation migrant working class demographic. I doubt if NCP's sugar lobby will have any pull in this urban setting. The thing about urban places is that nobody knows their MLA, MLC, MP ityadi because there is no reason to meet or know them. The only time people hear their name is election time. BJP should have fielded the previous winner Ram Kapse. It was a BJP strong hold until it was allocated to SS. Most urban places in MH will vote for Modi because Congress in down in the dump and has taken NCP along with it. Same with NCP candidate Naik in Thane seat. Naik has been in the news a lot and has been branded as Navi Mumbai guardian minister what ever that means. All he does is come up with exotic plans and sits on it for ever. I have not seen any one of his plan fly. Needs a royal 2 footer up his back.

Caaments Atri ji?

+1 on Sanskruth JohneeG

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 20 Mar 2014 10:03

Yes Sanskrit should be the link language. The beauty with Sanskrit is that one can use the mother tongue script for it. So all states can implement the three language formula. English/Regional language/Sanskrit.

Javee · Post by **Javee** » 20 Mar 2014 11:24

Let me put this blunt, BJP should not push any language agenda, overtly or covertly, not only will they loose supporters like me (and many more BJP supporters who are regular aam like me), they will also cease to exist as a party, aka Con-gress style. However beautiful it may be, we are pretty content with what we have now, we dont need to beautify it any further.

my last comment on this topic,

Javee · Post by **Javee** » 20 Mar 2014 11:30

SwamyG wrote:I think Hindu Munnani has done more for the local Hindu issues, than TN BJP.

You dont have to think

That is the fact. Most of the current day TN BJP leaders are part of a cabal, they are in cahoots with *MK parties. Today, these cabal have successfully hijacked the modi wave, and made sure fresh faces will not get a chance to compete in this election. We have a lot of disgruntled folks in Chennai, Kovai who are just keeping quiet for the sake of Modi. Twitter is abuzz with choicest words for these cabals.

Hindu Munnani aka Ramagopalan is the pillar for all local issues related to hinduism and a humble one at that.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 20 Mar 2014 11:57

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 20 Mar 2014 12:03

Back to topic.

nageshks wrote: Was hoping from Somnath (Junagadh), but that is too much Yindoo signalling, I suppose. Will take Vadodra.

Nope. Vadodara is an excellent choice. It will help central Gujarat's chances. I think NM will give up Vadodara and retain Varanasi.

RajeshA wrote:From Gujarat candidates have been nominated from 24/25 seats. Amit Shah is not among them. From UP too 69/80 candidates are known. No Amit Shah.

Ahmedabad East seat is not declared. Currently Harin Pathak is MP from there who is good MP and a sure shot winner. No reason for not declaring it yet. So I suspect the plan is that if grandpa doesn't contest from Gandhinagar then Amitbhai from there, otherwise from Ahmedabad East. It will be unfair to Harin Pathak though. But it can be managed with rewards in some other area. So Amit Shah from Guj is still a possibility.

muraliravi wrote: Gujarat list looks very good, 24-25 is a reasonable expectation

Rajkot - They have tried to please the industrialists of Morbi (who are against higher gas price in state) by fielding a MLA from a nearby town who is from the same patel community as the Morbi industrialists. But this MLA is lesser known in the city of Rajkot. This worries me a bit because the candidate from con is well known politician who also works for people. Still BJP should win but the margin would be thin.

Anand - The cadre will have to work hard here. 60/40 in favor of BJP.

Kheda - This is traditionally a strong hold of con but BJP has covered a lot of ground. Again 60/40 for BJP.

Valsad - Tough battle. BJP did not do very well in assembly election either. 30/70.

One thing that surprised me is the change made in Bhavnagar seat. Rajendrasinh Rana has won last 5 LS election. Yet he is not given the ticket this time. I'm not aware about the local politics of Bhavnagar but I suspect this is because he is sushi auntie's loyalist. One more reason I can think of is that being a 6 time MP he would demand for an imp ministry in cabinet but NM doesn't want anyone mess with his own preference. Apart from that, I think they have done their best in candidate selection. All the rest of the seats are safe enough.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 20 Mar 2014 12:26

Dahod is also a tough seat. Hopefully NM contesting from nearby Vadodara will help there.

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 20 Mar 2014 12:27

gandharva wrote:For me India will be truly united the day some male from one of the 4 Southern states starts ruling Bollywood.

A tad sexist, no?
#1 lady in 'Bollywood' is Kannadiga (Ms. Padukone).
Sreedevi was #1 in 'Bollywood' for a long time.

We are truly United.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 20 Mar 2014 12:47

SwamyG wrote:It is fascinating to read how RSS can control BJP this much? Is this really true, or just eggsperts and MSM creation? I mean what hold does RSS really have on a political party? And why would politicians listen to RSS ?

Saar, till RSS was backing the IAC 'movement', it pulled crowds from all over the country for anna. When the plug was pulled out we saw what happened to his rally with didi. Farji managed to build some cadre for himself in dilli but it short lived. Ramdev is nothing without RSS support. Shankarsinh Vaghela tried to build his own organization parallel to Sangh but it fizzled out before it flies. No one who has opposed RSS in BJP has survived politically. Either they have to come back or get vanished. RSS is unparalleled in its organizational ability. And that is because there are some serious brains working at the top.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 20 Mar 2014 12:56

Tamil Nadu

Rajnath Singh is on his way to Tamil Nadu to take care of more important matters than tending to the sulk of an idiot.

PMK has decided to join the NDA, and Rajnath Singh would be announcing the alliance at a press meeting in Chennai.

- BJP, DMDK, PMK, MDMK, IJK, KMDK, AINRC

Most probably MK Azhagiri would also be supporting the alliance though not contesting the elections himself. Possibly the alliance could muster around 10-15 seats.

Andhra Pradesh/Telangana

An alliance between TDP, BJP, Jana Sena and Lok Satta Party seems to be on the anvil.

Karnataka

B. Sriramulu's seat in Bellary should be formally declared sometime soon. Otherwise Karnataka BJP is raring to go, fully energized.

Kerala

BJP has good chances on a couple of seats.

------------------------------------------------

NDA presence in the South doesn't look so bad! Over 50 seats coming from down South!

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 20 Mar 2014 13:13

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 20 Mar 2014 13:28

The remarkable thing about these elections is Congress has become 'untouchable' in TN and Andhra for reasons which cannot be ascribed to Congress malevolence.The Congress is villainised for an impossible situation in SL.I dont think BJP can do any better on SL issue.

Also,by the convoluted logic which has become the norm in Congress,a separate Telengana was inevitable.and BJP too supports separate Telengana.

Both national parties have similar views on SL and Telengana.Its Congress which had to bite the bullet on both issues and is paying the price.Its not as if BJP has become popular in andhra or TN.Theres an undercurrent in these states,but hardly a modi wave.

The takeaway,is both national parties are alienated from the two important east coast dravidian states and this has helped BJP which had little presence in both the states.

The Telengana BJP wants no truck with TDP.Its not as if BJP faces no problems in reconciling TRS and TDP.

Similarly,theres little in common between DMDK,MDMK,PMK except petty leaders and monumental egos.The alliance is a bundle of contradictions.Yet,thats how politics is.BJP has a glimmer of hope,because Congress has been consumed by its contradictions.

Any discerning observer can see the gap widening between Andhra/TN on one side and North on the other side.Theres a wave in favour of modi in North inspite of the mediocrity,shenanigans of SS,LKA.OTOH,AP/TN polity seem to be fragmenting and drifting away from the Centre.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 Mar 2014 14:00

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 345206.cms

violence starting up in UP?

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 20 Mar 2014 14:02

svenkat wrote:Also,by the convoluted logic which has become the norm in Congress,a separate Telengana was inevitable.and BJP too supports separate Telengana.

Even people of rest of AP were in belief that T is inevitable, but the question they are are asking how fair share they would get. SA people are more angry on Con, because:
1. Such an important bill was not shown to public for wider discussions, why such secrecy.
2. Why Con only remembers issue of T around elections, why Con took such hasty decision just on eve of general elections.
3. The way Con blocked telecast of LS on lies.
4. Even in RS it was VN that was begging for financial packages for SA (may be perception).
5. The way Diggy Raja begging TRS for merger, reinforced the feeling in whole AP that state is bifurcated in such hastily manner just for political gains.

member_28397 · Post by **member_28397** » 20 Mar 2014 14:24

This is funny,

Raul Vinci during his speech today was saying “bhaia Geeta me leekha hai bhai chaare se kaam karo”  <brothers its written in Geeta that we should work together with brotherly love>

Sala is C****ye ki speeches kon likhta hai lol, yaa apne dimaag se ye khjaane khoj k lata hai.

Javee · Post by **Javee** » 20 Mar 2014 14:43

svenkat wrote:Its not as if BJP has become popular in andhra or TN.Theres an undercurrent in these states,but hardly a modi wave.

Next time, try attending a Modi meeting in TN. Trust me, the crowd in Trichy and Chennai was astounding. With monumental ego's why did PMK or DMDK agreed to be part of BJP camp? It is not like BJP is supporting them financially like Congress of *MK parties. People want Modi to be PM, it has not happened in a long time where people in TN were rooting for a unknown non-tamil speaking PM. There is indeed a wave, how big of a wave or how that can be converted in votes is something that BJP will need to look at.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 Mar 2014 14:46

media bashing BJP on differences withing, major opponents saying BJP doesn't respect those who raised the party

IB alert on kidnapping of our leaders for Bhatkal’s release cause for grave concern: BJP

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 20 Mar 2014 14:52

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/amarinder-singh-arun-jaitley-amritsar-congress-bjp-lok-sabha-elections/1/350222.html

Congress may field former Punjab chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh to take on BJP leader Arun Jaitley in Amritsar.

Singh is arriving in Delhi on Wednesday and could meet party chief Sonia Gandhi on Thursday.

Sources said that Punjab Congress chief Partap Singh Bajwa, who is considered not to be on best of terms with Singh, has also told the party leadership that the former Punjab CM could be a formidable candidate to take on Jaitley.

Javeeji,
modibhai is popular.Has BJP become popular? Have people chosen BJP on ideology/issues/principle.Theres a Hindu undercurrent.No doubt about that.Whats BJP bringing to the table that Cong/DMK did not ?

PMK/MDMK joining is because PMK has zero principles.It will join anyone according to the fashion of the season.Vaiko has a single point agenda-eezham and he is anti-congress.Ofcourse,in politics,even opposition to an ideology is a strong glue as in the case of vaikos anti-congressism.
That leaves DMDK.Noone has a clue about that party.Politicians want to cash in on the modi wave.imvho.In TN,the modi wave cannot operate on its own through BJP.It requires other parties.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 20 Mar 2014 15:08

svenkat, how is that situation unique for TN? How are the allies elsewhere any different?

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 20 Mar 2014 15:13

For me,politics is about strongly held opinions/values.In TN,I find DMDK,MDMK,PMK to be fringe rabble rousers not parties with deep roots or strongly held convictions.In Punjab,Akalis have 'credibility'.In Bihar,the BJP has credibility.But in TN,I think none of the parties in NDA seem credible.Ofcourse,these are subjective opinions and if feelings expressed by saravanaji,Gusji,Javeeji are anything to go by maybe TN BJP has finally turned the corner.Theres nothing called permanence in politics.

member_28468 · Post by **member_28468** » 20 Mar 2014 15:28

My comment was about India start loving it's own original race.Remember the Hindi movie in which Dhanush guy acted. Some magzines wrote review comments "Hero looked like a driver".

What u mean orignol race are you one of those lefties who believe in dravid and aryan backwass:evil:

And for dhanus yes many said he look like auto driver but also said he is a damn good actor.there are lot of south movies now on tv in hindi and not a single movie in which actress is on par with hero.

So dont be hypocrate everyone appreciate beauty.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 20 Mar 2014 15:31

No, I don't necessarily say TN BJP has turned a corner. I am fairly conversant with situation in TN and except for MDMK, I see the parties have not much convictions. How is a ShivSena or Akali more credible? They are regional parties with similar identity politics. But I don't follow them closely. Hence the question. Maybe the familiarity breeds contempt?