India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[Amber G.]

From Modiji:
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi

Wonderful to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%. Big thanks to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement.

When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation.

President Trump’s leadership is vital for global peace, stability, and prosperity. India fully supports his efforts for peace.

I look forward to working closely with him to take our partnership to unprecedented height

[Sumeet]

It should have been lowered to 15% or less. But lets wait for more details.

[Amber G.]

The MEA usually holds a press briefing following such announcements. They will likely be asked point-blank about the "Russian oil" claim. Expect them to use phrases like "Our energy imports are based on diversification and national interest"—a polite way of saving Trump being Trump's face.

[A_Gupta]

18% gives India a tariff advantage over Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

[A_Gupta]

Trump suffers from premature something.

The normal sequence that such announcements follow is beyond his capabilities for discipline.

[Amber G.]

It should have been lowered to 15% or less. But lets wait for more details.

My sense - Could be wrong who can predict Trump - and sources from US side -
Partial truce - "18% Tariff for "Made in India." (By Modi, 18-25% by trump) - "the 50% "penalty" rate is gone" , some tariffs remain (US says/points_to) but they will be lowered as US can save face about russian oil etc.)
We will see.

[Sumeet]

18% gives India a tariff advantage over Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Very slim only. We should have aimed for 15% or lower. But yes with scale of manufacturing and complete vertical integration that we have and in light of an additional favorable deal with EU this will be a death blow for TSP, Bangladesh for sure.

[Sumeet]

Point to note Modi didn't say anything about Russian oil purchase and 0% tariff's on US exports to India. Lets wait for details to emerge.

[drnayar]

18% gives India a tariff advantage over Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Very slim only. We should have aimed for 15% or lower. But yes with scale of manufacturing and complete vertical integration that we have and in light of an additional favorable deal with EU this will be a death blow for TSP, Bangladesh for sure.

This is undependable at best., Trump can get a sneeze and tariffs go up to 100% !.. diversify from US markets as best as India can.

[drnayar]

Point to note Modi didn't say anything about Russian oil purchase and 0% tariff's on US exports to India. Lets wait for details to emerge.

Thats the problem. Trump will say Modi did.

[Sumeet]

Very slim only. We should have aimed for 15% or lower. But yes with scale of manufacturing and complete vertical integration that we have and in light of an additional favorable deal with EU this will be a death blow for TSP, Bangladesh for sure.

This is undependable at best., Trump can get a sneeze and tariffs go up to 100% !.. diversify from US markets as best as India can.

Well thats true. Time will only tell. Diversification is important !!!

[Amber G.]

Classic disconnect between PM Modi’s statement and President Trump’s tweet -

My sense of what is happening behind the scenes and how to read the silence--

1. The "Russian Oil" Gap
Trump --l( PM Modi "agreed to stop buying Russian Oil,) " . Modi omitted any mention of this

Reading: India hasn't "banned" Russian oil but has agreed to a gradual reduction....Trump can claim an immediate win to his base.

(This is why the tariff was cut to 18% rather than 0% or much lower. The remaining 18% likely acts as "probationary" leverage to ensure India follows through on reducing Russian imports).

The $500 Billion "Commitment"
Trump mentioned a massive commitment to buy over $500 billion in US energy, tech, and agriculture.
 
This is almost certainly a long-term projection rather than a single check. India has a massive energy appetite; switching from LNG and coal helps India meet its climate goals while satisfying Trump's "Buy American" requirement.

Modi’s statement focuses on "Made in India" products getting access to the US, highlighting the benefit to Indian workers, rather than the cost of US imports.

"Trump being Trump" vs. Indian Diplomacy
The "Friendship" Narrative: Trump uses the word "friend" to frame the deal as a personal favor ("as per his request"). Modi reciprocates this language to maintain the personal rapport that historically shields India from even harsher "America First" policies.  

When Modi mentions Trump's leadership is "vital for global peace," he is likely subtly referencing the Ukraine-Russia conflict. It frames the move not as a "surrender" to US tariffs, but as a contribution to "global stability."

[AkshaySG]

The unfortunate fact is that like w Op Sindoor we have to live with an American President speaking on behalf of Indian citizens and owning the narrative.

The loud /brash tweet tweet from Trump goes viral round the world before MEA statement/clarifications are put out...If this is the price to pay for not being tariffed to death in this age then so be it but its a sad state of affairs.

We cannot just rely on "clarification by omission" any more.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.news18.com/world/the-diplom ... 75078.html
The Diplomatic Bridge: Sergio Gor’s Quiet Hand In US-India Trade Deal
Zakka Jacob, February 02, 2026
In a major diplomatic and economic breakthrough, US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States and India have finalised a landmark trade agreement, marked by a significant reduction in reciprocal tariffs. The deal was preceded by a high-stakes phone call between President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, an interaction teased earlier in the day by the newly appointed US Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor.
The role of Sergio Gor in this breakthrough cannot be overstated. A longtime Trump loyalist and former Director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, Gor took charge as the US Ambassador to India on January 12, 2026. His appointment was a clear signal from Washington that the White House intended to place a “human-in-the-loop" who possessed a direct line to the Oval Office.
Since his arrival in New Delhi, Gor has functioned as a strategic “bridge", consistently framing the trade negotiations not merely as a ledger of exports but as a reflection of the personal “friendship and respect" between the two leaders. Following the President’s announcement, Gor took to X to reiterate this sentiment: “As I have said many times, President Trump genuinely considers Prime Minister Modi a great friend! Thrilled by the news of the trade deal this evening. The relationship between the United States and India has LIMITLESS POTENTIAL!"
The Tariff Truce
The core of the agreement centres on a de-escalation of the “tariff war" that had strained bilateral ties throughout 2025.
The Reduction: The United States has agreed to immediately lower its reciprocal tariff on Indian exports from 25 per cent to 18 per cent. This provides massive relief to Indian sectors such as textiles, engineering goods, and automobiles, which had been reeling under punitive duties.
The Reciprocity: In exchange, President Trump claimed that India has committed to moving towards zero tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US products, specifically targeting the dairy, agriculture, and high-tech sectors.
......
Gautam
WTF! India could have had this deal a long time ago, if it agreed on opening up dairy and agriculture. Daal hi kuchh kala hai. This will be like handing an AK47 to Pappuji.

[neeraj]

Does it include removal of the added 25% tarrif for buying Russian oil?