Bharat Rakshak

From Modiji:
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi

Wonderful to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%. Big thanks to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement.

When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation.

President Trump’s leadership is vital for global peace, stability, and prosperity. India fully supports his efforts for peace.

I look forward to working closely with him to take our partnership to unprecedented height

It should have been lowered to 15% or less. But lets wait for more details.

The MEA usually holds a press briefing following such announcements. They will likely be asked point-blank about the "Russian oil" claim. Expect them to use phrases like "Our energy imports are based on diversification and national interest"—a polite way of saving Trump being Trump's face.

18% gives India a tariff advantage over Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Trump suffers from premature something.

The normal sequence that such announcements follow is beyond his capabilities for discipline.

Sumeet wrote: ↑02 Feb 2026 23:13 It should have been lowered to 15% or less. But lets wait for more details.

My sense - Could be wrong who can predict Trump - and sources from US side -
Partial truce - "18% Tariff for "Made in India." (By Modi, 18-25% by trump) - "the 50% "penalty" rate is gone" , some tariffs remain (US says/points_to) but they will be lowered as US can save face about russian oil etc.)
We will see.

A_Gupta wrote: ↑02 Feb 2026 23:16 18% gives India a tariff advantage over Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Very slim only. We should have aimed for 15% or lower. But yes with scale of manufacturing and complete vertical integration that we have and in light of an additional favorable deal with EU this will be a death blow for TSP, Bangladesh for sure.

Point to note Modi didn't say anything about Russian oil purchase and 0% tariff's on US exports to India. Lets wait for details to emerge.

Sumeet wrote: ↑02 Feb 2026 23:28

A_Gupta wrote: ↑02 Feb 2026 23:16 18% gives India a tariff advantage over Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Very slim only. We should have aimed for 15% or lower. But yes with scale of manufacturing and complete vertical integration that we have and in light of an additional favorable deal with EU this will be a death blow for TSP, Bangladesh for sure.

This is undependable at best., Trump can get a sneeze and tariffs go up to 100% !.. diversify from US markets as best as India can.

Sumeet wrote: ↑02 Feb 2026 23:30 Point to note Modi didn't say anything about Russian oil purchase and 0% tariff's on US exports to India. Lets wait for details to emerge.

Thats the problem. Trump will say Modi did.

drnayar wrote: ↑02 Feb 2026 23:31

Sumeet wrote: ↑02 Feb 2026 23:28

Very slim only. We should have aimed for 15% or lower. But yes with scale of manufacturing and complete vertical integration that we have and in light of an additional favorable deal with EU this will be a death blow for TSP, Bangladesh for sure.

This is undependable at best., Trump can get a sneeze and tariffs go up to 100% !.. diversify from US markets as best as India can.

Well thats true. Time will only tell. Diversification is important !!!

Classic disconnect between PM Modi’s statement and President Trump’s tweet -

My sense of what is happening behind the scenes and how to read the silence--

1. The "Russian Oil" Gap
Trump --l( PM Modi "agreed to stop buying Russian Oil,) " . Modi omitted any mention of this

Reading: India hasn't "banned" Russian oil but has agreed to a gradual reduction....Trump can claim an immediate win to his base.

(This is why the tariff was cut to 18% rather than 0% or much lower. The remaining 18% likely acts as "probationary" leverage to ensure India follows through on reducing Russian imports).

The $500 Billion "Commitment"
Trump mentioned a massive commitment to buy over $500 billion in US energy, tech, and agriculture.
 
This is almost certainly a long-term projection rather than a single check. India has a massive energy appetite; switching from LNG and coal helps India meet its climate goals while satisfying Trump's "Buy American" requirement.

Modi’s statement focuses on "Made in India" products getting access to the US, highlighting the benefit to Indian workers, rather than the cost of US imports.

"Trump being Trump" vs. Indian Diplomacy
The "Friendship" Narrative: Trump uses the word "friend" to frame the deal as a personal favor ("as per his request"). Modi reciprocates this language to maintain the personal rapport that historically shields India from even harsher "America First" policies.  

When Modi mentions Trump's leadership is "vital for global peace," he is likely subtly referencing the Ukraine-Russia conflict. It frames the move not as a "surrender" to US tariffs, but as a contribution to "global stability."

The unfortunate fact is that like w Op Sindoor we have to live with an American President speaking on behalf of Indian citizens and owning the narrative.

The loud /brash tweet tweet from Trump goes viral round the world before MEA statement/clarifications are put out...If this is the price to pay for not being tariffed to death in this age then so be it but its a sad state of affairs.

We cannot just rely on "clarification by omission" any more.

https://www.news18.com/world/the-diplom ... 75078.html
The Diplomatic Bridge: Sergio Gor’s Quiet Hand In US-India Trade Deal
Zakka Jacob, February 02, 2026
In a major diplomatic and economic breakthrough, US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States and India have finalised a landmark trade agreement, marked by a significant reduction in reciprocal tariffs. The deal was preceded by a high-stakes phone call between President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, an interaction teased earlier in the day by the newly appointed US Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor.
The role of Sergio Gor in this breakthrough cannot be overstated. A longtime Trump loyalist and former Director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, Gor took charge as the US Ambassador to India on January 12, 2026. His appointment was a clear signal from Washington that the White House intended to place a “human-in-the-loop" who possessed a direct line to the Oval Office.
Since his arrival in New Delhi, Gor has functioned as a strategic “bridge", consistently framing the trade negotiations not merely as a ledger of exports but as a reflection of the personal “friendship and respect" between the two leaders. Following the President’s announcement, Gor took to X to reiterate this sentiment: “As I have said many times, President Trump genuinely considers Prime Minister Modi a great friend! Thrilled by the news of the trade deal this evening. The relationship between the United States and India has LIMITLESS POTENTIAL!"
The Tariff Truce
The core of the agreement centres on a de-escalation of the “tariff war" that had strained bilateral ties throughout 2025.
The Reduction: The United States has agreed to immediately lower its reciprocal tariff on Indian exports from 25 per cent to 18 per cent. This provides massive relief to Indian sectors such as textiles, engineering goods, and automobiles, which had been reeling under punitive duties.
The Reciprocity: In exchange, President Trump claimed that India has committed to moving towards zero tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US products, specifically targeting the dairy, agriculture, and high-tech sectors.
......
Gautam
WTF! India could have had this deal a long time ago, if it agreed on opening up dairy and agriculture. Daal hi kuchh kala hai. This will be like handing an AK47 to Pappuji.

Does it include removal of the added 25% tarrif for buying Russian oil?

deleted.wrong thread

Why is the above in this thread saar?

“A White House official confirmed to the BBC that the Russian oil-linked tariffs will be dropped as part of the agreement and other tariffs lowered to put the rate at 18%”

A_Gupta wrote: ↑03 Feb 2026 01:28 “A White House official confirmed to the BBC that the Russian oil-linked tariffs will be dropped as part of the agreement and other tariffs lowered to put the rate at 18%”

Whats the source of this snippet ? 18% is too high. The number should 15% and below. I am curious about agriculture and dairy. I won't believe anything till Govt. doesn't specifically mention all the details.

The 26% or 25% tariff was arbitrary to begin with. I am basing 15% based on best deals that have come through yet from US for others. Also, I don't think we will be charging 0% on US products. That seems ridiculous.

Indian Budget is out in the open. It is probable (highly) that the US side was waiting to see what was in the budget.

^^ the source is the BBC. It doesn’t have much value beyond the White House is speaking in one voice. (In other cases White House officials have walked back some of Trump’s statements).

The other thing I didn't understand why do we have to seal the deal in the night, don't we already know how he likes to go on SM and shout out ...

We should let things happen during our day time so that we can clarify and lead the presentation.

FM Jaishankar is in the US.

Likely the deal was set weeks ago, it was just Trump saying No.

Sumeet wrote: ↑03 Feb 2026 03:48 The other thing I didn't understand why do we have to seal the deal in the night, don't we already know how he likes to go on SM and shout out ...

We should let things happen during our day time so that we can clarify and lead the presentation.

Doland as usual. Even after its signed. He will change his mind anytime. So better to keep it routine from our side.

https://x.com/narendramodi/status/2018377090840830101
@narendramodi
Wonderful to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%. Big thanks to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement.

When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation.

President Trump’s leadership is vital for global peace, stability, and prosperity. India fully supports his efforts for peace.

I look forward to working closely with him to take our partnership to unprecedented heights.

@POTUS

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrum ... 5109616255
@realDonaldTrump

It was an Honor to speak with Prime Minister Modi, of India, this morning. He is one of my greatest friends and, a Powerful and Respected Leader of his Country. We spoke about many things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela. This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week! Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%. They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO. The Prime Minister also committed to “BUY AMERICAN,” at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products. Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward. Prime Minister Modi and I are two people that GET THINGS DONE, something that cannot be said for most. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

India-US Trade Deal: Arnab with Jeffrey D Sachs | Decoding Delusional Trump And Modi Masterstroke
Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs, a well-known economist and authority on international affairs, joins Arnab Goswami to discuss the latest developments in the India-US trading environment. Our Editor-in-Chief poses the difficult issues as the two superpowers negotiate a historic trade agreement: Is this a "Modi Masterstroke" that ensures India's economic future, or is the Trump administration's "America First" strategy building a false foundation for international trade? Is this a calculated risk, or will it bring in a new period of prosperity? Watch as Arnab Goswami delivers the most comprehensive analysis, with the sharpest insights, from Professor Jeffrey Sachs.

A_Gupta wrote: ↑03 Feb 2026 01:28 “A White House official confirmed to the BBC that the Russian oil-linked tariffs will be dropped as part of the agreement and other tariffs lowered to put the rate at 18%”

This is all phaltu "busy work" from the US sarkar - mainly Lattu, Basant, and Ron Vara. These "deals" will have about as much lasting power as a hollywood actor's marriage. The next president will likely scrap the tariff ponzi scheme and probably reset to 2024 situation with some tweaks here and there.

Having tariff rates matching the competition saves a lot of livelihoods in India that may seem phaltu to us but is a relief to them.

^^It could, but it hasn't. Indian exports have risen after the arbitrary tariffs. The effect on American households/jobs would be much higher.

Officially announced :: EAM Dr S Jaishankar, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to hold talks in Washington DC today at 3.30 PM EST

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/i ... 260203.htm
'India Should Not Rush To Celebrate Trump's Trade Announcement'
SHOBHA WARRIER, February 03, 2026
'Trump says India will buy over $500 billion of US goods.'
'At present, India's annual imports of goods and energy from the US are under $50 billion.'
'Reaching $500 billion would likely require more than 20 years, suggesting the figure refers to a long-term aspiration rather than a near-term commitment.'
On Monday, February 2, night, United States President Donald John Trump announced a trade deal with India after a phone conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
"Until there is a joint statement, negotiated text, and clarity on enforcement, this should be seen as a political signal -- not a final deal. So, what is needed is caution, and not celebration," Ajay Srivastava, founder, Global Trade Research Initiative, a New Delhi-based think-tank, explains to Shobha Warrier/Rediff.
How do you react to Trump reducing the tariff against India to 18%?
Yes, US President Trump said on Truth Social that the United States had reached a trade deal with India after a call with Prime Minister Modi.
According to Trump, Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil and increase purchases from the United States and Venezuela.
Trump said that, at Modi's request, the US had agreed to immediately reduce its 'reciprocal tariff' on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. In return, India would move to cut its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US products to zero.
Trump also said Modi committed to Buy American at much higher levels, including purchases of more than $500 billion worth of US energy, technology, agricultural products, coal, and other goods.
Is the deal something to cheer about for India like the India-European Union deal?
Trump's Truth Social post leaves several key points unclear.
Trump said US tariffs would be reduced from 25% to 18%.
However, because the post also mentioned India stopping Russian oil purchases, earlier linked to punitive tariffs, it is unclear whether the cut is actually from 50% to 18%, or whether Trump misstated the original tariff level.
The US later clarified that tariffs are indeed being reduced from 50% to 18%.
......
Gautam

g.sarkar wrote: ↑03 Feb 2026 15:45 https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/i ... 260203.htm
'India Should Not Rush To Celebrate Trump's Trade Announcement'
SHOBHA WARRIER, February 03, 2026
'Trump says India will buy over $500 billion of US goods.'
'At present, India's annual imports of goods and energy from the US are under $50 billion.'
'Reaching $500 billion would likely require more than 20 years, suggesting the figure refers to a long-term aspiration rather than a near-term commitment.'
On Monday, February 2, night, United States President Donald John Trump announced a trade deal with India after a phone conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
"Until there is a joint statement, negotiated text, and clarity on enforcement, this should be seen as a political signal -- not a final deal. So, what is needed is caution, and not celebration," Ajay Srivastava, founder, Global Trade Research Initiative, a New Delhi-based think-tank, explains to Shobha Warrier/Rediff.
How do you react to Trump reducing the tariff against India to 18%?
Yes, US President Trump said on Truth Social that the United States had reached a trade deal with India after a call with Prime Minister Modi.
According to Trump, Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil and increase purchases from the United States and Venezuela.
Trump said that, at Modi's request, the US had agreed to immediately reduce its 'reciprocal tariff' on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. In return, India would move to cut its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US products to zero.
Trump also said Modi committed to Buy American at much higher levels, including purchases of more than $500 billion worth of US energy, technology, agricultural products, coal, and other goods.
Is the deal something to cheer about for India like the India-European Union deal?
Trump's Truth Social post leaves several key points unclear.
Trump said US tariffs would be reduced from 25% to 18%.
However, because the post also mentioned India stopping Russian oil purchases, earlier linked to punitive tariffs, it is unclear whether the cut is actually from 50% to 18%, or whether Trump misstated the original tariff level.
The US later clarified that tariffs are indeed being reduced from 50% to 18%.
......
Gautam

What's the take on Agricultural and dairy products., different news sources talk differently with the focus on "Russian oil" .,did India agree to open these sectors to American products ?!

drnayar wrote: ↑02 Feb 2026 23:31

Sumeet wrote: ↑02 Feb 2026 23:28

Very slim only. We should have aimed for 15% or lower. But yes with scale of manufacturing and complete vertical integration that we have and in light of an additional favorable deal with EU this will be a death blow for TSP, Bangladesh for sure.

This is undependable at best., Trump can get a sneeze and tariffs go up to 100% !.. diversify from US markets as best as India can.

aha

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/int ... 883182.cms


India-US deal: Russia contradicts Trump, says New Delhi has not said it will halt oil purchases

What a fawning puff piece on Gor above! Which itself is a bad sign.

KL Dubey wrote: ↑03 Feb 2026 10:24 ^^It could, but it hasn't. Indian exports have risen after the arbitrary tariffs. The effect on American households/jobs would be much higher.

Specific sectors are still affected. E.g., from three days ago, Andhra aquaculture:
https://youtu.be/XoTYMN_blyU?si=cuFwOCZe1okYFVkW

https://www.youtube.com/live/m8JYrQJIxy ... aiR7wYGZlx


Added: sorry it is more politics and less detail on the trade deal.
At the end, says that a joint statement is forthcoming following which details will be provided.

Well its important to dismiss Congress propaganda right from the start. I am glad Piyush Goyal did it himself.

A separate segment should focus on trade details away from politics.

“ However, this morning top goverment sources told NDTV the deal does not compromise Indian farmers. Sources said sensitive sectors - agriculture and dairy - will continue to be protected.”

---
Added, the old acronym FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt, comes to mind on looking at what happened in the Indian Parliament. FUD was a marketing tactic started in the 1970s.

Here is my read on the details. On Oil, India will move towards non-Russian sources, especially taping into Venezuelan oil - which Trump wants to exploit. India has already started to diversify (but not stop). On Agriculture: Do not think there is an outright agreement but a promise to move towards more acceptance of American produce, providing to Modi the political space to manage things. Another promise to move towards zero tariffs for virtually most American products (but not services). Not publicized but my read is Trump will soften on labor movement, if he politically can. I think there was an original deal for India to come at 15% but that was missed. The 18% is to provide to Modi, some brownie points to stay above allies rate but below other non-allied trade partners of the US.

Net-Net from an Indian exporters perspective, It allows them to be on par with their competitors for business. The strategic effort of US to embolden India into its deadly embrace continues.

The EU trade deal instigated Trump to wake up and climb down from its rhetoric. Also, sense a deal with Putin in the offing, making the Russian oil sanctions non-sequitur.

Ok so here is the confirmation:

'India maintaining protection around agricultural goods': US on trade deal with Delhi-Says Tariffs to drop to zero from 13.5%

A_Gupta wrote: ↑03 Feb 2026 18:11 https://www.youtube.com/live/m8JYrQJIxy ... aiR7wYGZlx

Added: sorry it is more politics and less detail on the trade deal.
At the end, says that a joint statement is forthcoming following which details will be provided.

Thanks.
Very much appreciated this side of India's Minister. Needed that.