Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 21 Mar 2014 13:15

Singha wrote:I saw a press conf of the congi in uttarkhand who joined BJP today.
could be a brf lurker going by the indo cheen economic issues and congi failures he was ranting about lol

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satpal_Maharaj

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Mar 2014 13:21

Sounds like a volcanic but useful asset if used the right way by upper management.

negi · Post by **negi** » 21 Mar 2014 13:21

^ There are lot of such babas at large in Uttarakhand and they are mostly based out of Doon, the elite + bhaang mix since young days screws up their head . Satpal Maharaj has has been a sitting MP from Pauri Garhwal on more than one occasion however he has ghanta to show for work. Most of the good work specially roads were made under B C Khanduri's tenure .

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 21 Mar 2014 14:17

negi wrote:^ There are lot of such babas at large in Uttarakhand and they are mostly based out of Doon, the elite + bhaang mix since young days screws up their head . Satpal Maharaj has has been a sitting MP from Pauri Garhwal on more than one occasion however he has ghanta to show for work. Most of the good work specially roads were made under B C Khanduri's tenure .

is this a parliamentary election or a municipal election?

Except for National highways, most of them are municipal roads.

If people with this much exposure do not know this....

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 21 Mar 2014 14:25

The real story why the finance minister is not fighting the Lok Sabha election.

PChidambaram is likely to be key Congress campaigner this election.

The finance minister is all geared up to attack Narendra Modi, particularly on economic issues, in Southern, Eastern and Western India.

Congress insiders revealed much against popular perception that Chidambaram backed out of the electoral fray in Sivaganga to save himself from certain defeat, both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi asked him to fan out in urban India and counter Modi.

Mama and Beta feel Chidambaram's oratory, withering wit and command over issues like the economy, national security and foreign affairs could help dissolve Modi's spell on the Indian middle class.

The Lok Sabha ticket to Chidambaram Jr, Karti, was granted as part of a carefully thought out strategy.

Chidambaram's elevation as a leading campaigner sends out the signal that in the event of a fractured mandate, he could emerge as a potential PM nominee.

After all, in the United Front regime of 1996-1997, Chidambaram had served as finance minister, so he is no stranger to leaders like Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh and Laloo Prasad Yadav.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 21 Mar 2014 14:39

Chidambaram's oratory, withering wit

Really?

niran · Post by **niran** » 21 Mar 2014 14:50

saravana wrote:
Chidambaram's oratory, withering wit
Really?

I rank him second from Hd devegoda whose English yak yak is incomprehensible.
BTW hi Hindi is even worse some a one campaigner.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 21 Mar 2014 14:53

Modi wave penetrates in regional bastions in South..

Hyderabad: Surveys being conducted by individual leaders of the Congress, YSR Congress and the Telugu Desam Party seem to suggest that the electorate is in favour of the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections but will vote for the Telangana Rashtra Samiti or the Congress in Telangana, and the TDP or the YSR Congress in Seemandhra.

Going by these findings, TRS chief K. Chandrasekhar Rao appealed to Telangana voters not to support the BJP at the Centre.

“I hear some reports that voters this time want to vote for the TRS in the Assembly elections and vote for Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha polls. Please don’t do that. If you vote for the TRS in the Lok Sabha polls, we will get a good number of seats and I will be able to bring pressure on the Central government to concede new projects to Telangana. Please vote for the TRS in both the elections,” Mr Chandrasekhar Rao said at an election-related meeting in Telangana Bhavan on Wednesday.

Medchal Congress MLA Kitchennagari Laxma Reddy was surprised that the electorate in his constituency preferred Mr Modi. The Medchal Assembly segment is just 40 km from the state capital, which is part of Malkajagiri Lok Sabha constituency.

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/140321/n ... tate-polls

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 21 Mar 2014 15:02

PC will be used in TN , i dont think he will be of any use in north

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 21 Mar 2014 15:05

^^

niran wrote: I rank him second from Hd devegoda whose English yak yak is incomprehensible.
BTW hi Hindi is even worse some a one campaigner.

This must be in TN. All his oratory,wit is nothing in front of the cool old gentleman sitting nonchalantly in the front.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 21 Mar 2014 15:31

Former revenue secretary NK Singh quits JDU, joins BJP

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/former-reven ... 37-64.html

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 21 Mar 2014 16:13

Ashok Sarraff wrote:Former revenue secretary NK Singh quits JDU, joins BJP

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/former-reven ... 37-64.html

Is this the brother of Purnia BJP MP Udai Singh? It seems a wholesale movement of elites connected with Congress moving to BJP. I hope, old BJP faces are not left holding a katora in terms of rewards for the hard work in tough times.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 21 Mar 2014 16:20

Ashok Sarraff wrote:Former revenue secretary NK Singh quits JDU, joins BJP

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/former-reven ... 37-64.html

That is a big catch. NKS is very well-connected

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 21 Mar 2014 16:21

He is a dienasty insider. Would be useful in destroying empire. Or so is my understanding about inducting him.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 21 Mar 2014 16:27

Uttarakhand BJP was already suffering koshiyari and pokhariyal and now we have Satpal Maharaj. Only N. D. Tiwari is left out then Uttarakhand BJP can have all the orgy it can take.

Empower Khanduri and promise some investments in the hill regions esp. in road connectivity and more positions for local teachers in the local schools (absolute must), promise some resolution of the land records mess in the plains region, promise to extract some work from the local level babugiri, run a nationalist campaign, keep Pokhariyal types away under Burkha, show some street presence and you are set. Uttarakhand is Rajput populated with some good presence of Brahmins. Only a very little population of SCs. Plains like Sidcul and Udham Singh Nagar are also like that. Uttarakhand is ripe for the NaMo effect. Satpal is a liability.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 21 Mar 2014 16:28

saravana wrote:^^
niran wrote: I rank him second from Hd devegoda whose English yak yak is incomprehensible.
BTW hi Hindi is even worse some a one campaigner.

This must be in TN. All his oratory,wit is nothing in front of the cool old gentleman sitting nonchalantly in the front.

Shivaganga, His constituency.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 21 Mar 2014 16:31

CHidu's son Kathik is No. 1 Looter.

I read this anecdote about Karthik:

Someone appraoched him in Houston with some innovative invention that can help villages in India. He wanted his help in Govt. promotion. Kathik's question was "F*** India. What's in it for me?"

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 21 Mar 2014 16:50

saravanaji,
you ask searching questions about Hindu nationalism,self interests,etc.I will defer my answer and leave it at that.I assure you that I am NOT in the game of issuing certificates of biousness.Yet a framework of hindu nationalism is not unimportant,imvho.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 21 Mar 2014 17:09

kapilrdave wrote:He is a dienasty insider. Would be useful in destroying empire. Or so is my understanding about inducting him.

Dienasty or Ambani ? But this move sends a very clear signal to all Dillibillis.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 21 Mar 2014 17:25

This is a BIG news! N.K. Singh can be a Vibhishan for Modi - he knows (or should know because of his erstwhile position) all the financial/corruption related secrets of the dynasty and the larger C-System. If deployed properly, he can be a potent weapon against the dynasty and its minions.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 21 Mar 2014 18:01

Is caste really key? Why Maya, Lalu, Mulayam’s equations could go wrong

Gupta argues that in most constituencies, there are five or six caste groups with roughly the same kind of numerical strength. With the exception of the Marathas who form about one third the voting population in Maharashtra, everywhere else, the so-called dominant caste accounts for only 20 to 25 percent of the voter base -- just 10 percent of the population of Western Uttar Pradesh is Jat, he points out, though the region is called a Jat stronghold. Madhopura in Bihar may be a Yadav stronghold, but no more than 23 to 25 percent here belong to the Yadav caste group. Assuming that all caste groups exercise their franchise more or less equally, the caste factor is questioned in several outcomes, he points out. So, despite the large Maratha percentage in South Mumbai, the seat was won for two consecutive terms by Milind Deora, a Gujarati. The Marathas are also a large constituent of the electorate in Mumbai South Central, won by the Punjabi Priya Dutt. He offers plenty of examples: The BSP lost every seat in 2002 in parts of Eastern UP where the SCs are dominant. In 2007, the same seats voted in favour of Mayawati.

The reason, says Gupta, is that while there are five or six major caste groups in a constituency, only two candidates are the major contenders. Unwilling to waste a vote, many voters would thus vote outside their caste group, "for someone they would not have tea with". "

Unsurprisingly, when psephologists and politicians use caste numbers to predict election results, they are almost always wrong," he writes.

The moral of the story is there is a general feeling of people how thing things are going in the state/country. They vote based on that feeling. Caste matters but not as much as 5Forty3 guy thinks or some people think think.

The other apparent reason is that there is an "urban bias" that leads people to believe that all groups within the SC/ST/OBC groupings think and behave uniformly. The complexities of the intra-group cleavages, the smaller sub-sections within the group would make accurate caste-based voting behaviour predictions near-impossible.

During a debate on CNN-IBN earlier this month, historian and author Ramchandra Guha had said that, for example, Lalu won't be able to count on the Yadav vote any more, at least not like he could once. Gupta had said people are unable to vote on their caste grounds any more.

Needless to say, the biggest beneficiary of this would be the BJP. Prof Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti Network had said then that a significant chunk of lower caste votes have also actually moved towards the BJP. The Jatav vote, for example, moved from the BSP to the BJP, Shastri said.

That means caste-based voting behaviour is simply no longer predictable. As Gupta writes, this is perhaps why many of them "are now talking about development instead".

Now you know why Kujli wants to attack Gujarat Development. The scums of AAP (Kujli and Yogendra) are very diabolical agents of MAFIA. Hope they are crushed without any hope.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Mar 2014 18:19

Unless a wave election just baffles all predictions, I just dont see how all the 200+ numbers for BJP are coming from

Here is the Bihar candidate seat with chances. Decreasing order of chances. The 4 seats without highlighting are ones, where i have no inputs. (all my inputs are from the wen 5forty3, twitter etc..). Once you hit the blue font, chance of winning is drastically low.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Mar 2014 18:23

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Here are the 44 seats the mafia will get

Assam - 10 (wait for csds survey at end of this month to confirm this)
MuraliRavi-ji,
This is one state where I have doubts about your analysis. I am not sure how the Congress expects to get 10 seats in Assam. The AUDF is going to win Karimganj, Dhubri, and possibly even Barpeta (all three are minority dominated). The Congress is not even in the reckoning in Kokrajhar. Are you giving all the 10 remaining seats to the Congress?
.
Orissa - 8 (thanks to BJP for dividing BJD vote)
Orissa Congress is disintegrating big time. Its MLAs are all jumping to BJD en masse (some are even going to BJP). Do you still think the Congress can get 8?

Nagesh ji, that was my assumption. I am hearing very negative feedback from assam from all corners, so I just gave all 10 to congress.

Regarding orissa, is the vote for congress there for the party or the candidate, if it the former (as i thought), it should not matter right.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 21 Mar 2014 18:43

muraliravi ji,

Last time Om Prakash Yadav won the seat as an independent and he went up against a formidable foe Shahabuddin. So I don't think he need to worry with BJP this time with him. Siwan should be a cakewalk.

Also Muzaffarpur has had a well-respected MP till now, Capt. Jainarain Prasad Nishad whose son Ajay Nishad would be fighting this time. This guy has been around in every party and he still wins. I think the trend would remain with his son as well.

NaMo has been carefully in taking in leaders from elsewhere. Siwan and Muzaffarpur should be BJP's.

If you are hearing other stuff, then that too could be true.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Mar 2014 19:02

RajeshA wrote:muraliravi ji,

Last time Om Prakash Yadav won the seat as an independent and he went up against a formidable foe Shahabuddin. So I don't think he need to worry with BJP this time with him. Siwan should be a cakewalk.

Also Muzaffarpur has had a well-respected MP till now, Capt. Jainarain Prasad Nishad whose son Ajay Nishad would be fighting this time. This guy has been around in every party and he still wins. I think the trend would remain with his son as well.

NaMo has been carefully in taking in leaders from elsewhere. Siwan and Muzaffarpur should be BJP's.

If you are hearing other stuff, then that too could be true.

Hope so, but the macro picture is BJP cant gain anymore, it can only lose some seats from here. 210 before candidate declaration and around 25 less after that. I guess that is how indian politics works. In all surveys before candidate declaration, a guy who said i'll vote for BJP ends up voting for someone else based on BJP's candidate, but i dont see the reverse happening (while in reality that is what bjp should have striven for, choose candidates in such a way that even non-bjp people look at bjp)

chaitanya · Post by **chaitanya** » 21 Mar 2014 19:17

muraliravi wrote: Hope so, but the macro picture is BJP cant gain anymore, it can only lose some seats from here. 210 before candidate declaration and around 25 less after that. I guess that is how indian politics works. In all surveys before candidate declaration, a guy who said i'll vote for BJP ends up voting for someone else based on BJP's candidate, but i dont see the reverse happening (while in reality that is what bjp should have striven for, choose candidates in such a way that even non-bjp people look at bjp)

Hi, I am quite new to all this political strategy, but is it possible that some of these seats you are saying will be lost after candidate declaration will be won back from solid campaigning? I remember before the state elections earlier this year, there was concern that the BJP did not present itself as a unified front. Modi's strong campaigning helped change the perception and BJP did quite well. With all these seats being assigned here and there and so much rona-dhona in the media from people without tickets/bad tickets, it seems like a similar situation has popped up again. What if Modi comes in and convinces everyone that the current set up is the way to go? Havent heard of any rallies in a while...

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 21 Mar 2014 19:26

^ Good point.

I recall before the assy polls last yr, on noose channels in tv was this dissent drama played up. Some processions, effigy burnings, sloganeering and all that. "Ummedwaar badlega toh kamal khilega" etc happened.

However, the worry isn;t about what will dissenters/rebels do but about the choice of candidates without looking at caste arithmetic. The sonepat example is glaring where pradeep sangwan should've been given the ticket. And bhagalpur for ashwini chaubey. Less said about Udhampur the better.

That said, I do want to see how much voteshare improves this time round. Seats don;t tell the whole story. voteshare gains can be built upon and reinforced and spread and leveraged. BSP of late has been losing share and that predicts its decimation. CPM started bleeding voteshare yrs before it lost power...

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Mar 2014 19:34

chaitanya wrote: Hi, I am quite new to all this political strategy, but is it possible that some of these seats you are saying will be lost after candidate declaration will be won back from solid campaigning? I remember before the state elections earlier this year, there was concern that the BJP did not present itself as a unified front. Modi's strong campaigning helped change the perception and BJP did quite well. With all these seats being assigned here and there and so much rona-dhona in the media from people without tickets/bad tickets, it seems like a similar situation has popped up again. What if Modi comes in and convinces everyone that the current set up is the way to go? Havent heard of any rallies in a while...

Chaitanya,

There is a huge difference between the 4 states that went to polls and UP/Bihar. Barring delhi all the other states were bi-polar for all practical purposes. It is BJP or the congress. In such situations, candidate choice though important is not the overwhelming factor. Unless the candidate is horrible, people in general just vote for the party.

Now coming to UP/Bihar, both states are either 3 way or 4 way fights. Barring few groups of people who are committed to a single party, most people are floating voters who either vote for the candidate (his credentials, but in most cases his caste) or for a issue (like Ramjanambhoomi or we need to kick SP out, something like that). In essence, in pure bi-polar states, candidate is secondary since affiliations are clear. In these mulch-cornered fights, issues are more local. That is where BJP suffers heavily since the party is not well entrenched (rather it used to be in UP, not any more). All the prospects you see for the BJP on TV in UP/Bihar are purely owing to heavy disenchantment with the current govt combined with a modi wave.

This is candidate season, which is a local issue, so BJP will be on a backfoot there. So as you said, their only way to overcome that handicap is by again making it a wave election like in the past. So if UP voters just decide to screw everyone and just vote blindly for BJP because they want Modi as PM, then all this candidate based prediction is all BS, but if that is not the case, BJP is in for some serious trouble. If there is a wave really that obliterates candidate factor and to some extent blurs caste lines (i dont expect to get blurred completely anytime soon), then UP and Bihar will yield windfall gains for BJP (like 45 in UP and 20-25 in Bihar, just for BJP alone), but if it an elections where the wave is just partial or minimal, then BJP will be down to some 28-30 seats in UP and 15-16 seats in Bihar.

I am sure they know this and Modi maybe planning another slew of rallies in the next few days.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Mar 2014 19:37

Hari Seldon wrote:^ Good point.

I recall before the assy polls last yr, on noose channels in tv was this dissent drama played up. Some processions, effigy burnings, sloganeering and all that. "Ummedwaar badlega toh kamal khilega" etc happened.

However, the worry isn;t about what will dissenters/rebels do but about the choice of candidates without looking at caste arithmetic. The sonepat example is glaring where pradeep sangwan should've been given the ticket. And bhagalpur for ashwini chaubey. Less said about Udhampur the better.

That said, I do want to see how much voteshare improves this time round. Seats don;t tell the whole story. voteshare gains can be built upon and reinforced and spread and leveraged. BSP of late has been losing share and that predicts its decimation. CPM started bleeding voteshare yrs before it lost power...

Hari Sir,

While i agree about Sonepat and Udhampur, bhagalpur if fine. Shahnawaz will win there and Ashwini will win Buxar. So i see no loss.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Mar 2014 19:37

muraliravi wrote: Hope so, but the macro picture is BJP cant gain anymore, it can only lose some seats from here. 210 before candidate declaration and around 25 less after that. I guess that is how indian politics works. In all surveys before candidate declaration, a guy who said i'll vote for BJP ends up voting for someone else based on BJP's candidate, but i dont see the reverse happening (while in reality that is what bjp should have striven for, choose candidates in such a way that even non-bjp people look at bjp)

MuraliRavi-ji,
As for the surveys, many of them are telephone based and for all the claims of thorough sampling, never percolate properly down to the poorest voter level (the kind that votes for a bottle of daru, or a saree), which is the traditional weakness of the BJP, which never had the kind of cash the Congress had, or the muscle power that many of the thugs of the SP/BSP/<regional party> exhibited. As a result, the real vote share of the BJP tends to be a good 2-3% lower than what is shown on surveys, particularly in rural states. Even in the latest round of elections, we saw the thing happen with the voters in Chhattisgarh (I don't think C Voter indulged in any deliberate fudging of the statistics they had, nor cooked up results to make BJP feel hyper secure). Personally, I think that is the reason why the BJP tends to get lower seats than is predicted by the analysts, rather than any problems with the candidates.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Mar 2014 19:42

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Hope so, but the macro picture is BJP cant gain anymore, it can only lose some seats from here. 210 before candidate declaration and around 25 less after that. I guess that is how indian politics works. In all surveys before candidate declaration, a guy who said i'll vote for BJP ends up voting for someone else based on BJP's candidate, but i dont see the reverse happening (while in reality that is what bjp should have striven for, choose candidates in such a way that even non-bjp people look at bjp)
MuraliRavi-ji,
As for the surveys, many of them are telephone based and for all the claims of thorough sampling, never percolate properly down to the poorest voter level (the kind that votes for a bottle of daru, or a saree), which is the traditional weakness of the BJP, which never had the kind of cash the Congress had, or the muscle power that many of the thugs of the SP/BSP/<regional party> exhibited. As a result, the real vote share of the BJP tends to be a good 2-3% lower than what is shown on surveys, particularly in rural states. Even in the latest round of elections, we saw the thing happen with the voters in Chhattisgarh (I don't think C Voter indulged in any deliberate fudging of the statistics they had, nor cooked up results to make BJP feel hyper secure). Personally, I think that is the reason why the BJP tends to get lower seats than is predicted by the analysts, rather than any problems with the candidates.

Nagesh ji, my worry is the double effect. What is 2-3% is due to poor survey and they lose 2-3% due to candidate making that a 5% loss or a 40-50 seat deficit landing at 170 instead of 220. Well anyway this is a never ending discussion. Csds has their full final survey which will be telecasted end of the month. We will know the effect of candidates by then.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 21 Mar 2014 19:46

But the swing this time is 9%+ towards the BJP (or should I just say, Modi?) and over 13% away from the cong. The turd front farties are the dark horses though...

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 21 Mar 2014 19:56

svenkat wrote:saravanaji,
you ask searching questions about Hindu nationalism,self interests,etc.I will defer my answer and leave it at that.I assure you that I am NOT in the game of issuing certificates of biousness.Yet a framework of hindu nationalism is not unimportant,imvho.

Please drop the ji sir. I didn't mean to imply that you are issuing certificates, I apologise if it came across that way. Again anything in this post that you didn't raise it yourself, are my own.
My opinion is that Hindu nationalism and building temples etc etc are by products of a satisfied and confident nation.It is not a perfect equivalence, but so many times we built temples that towered the sky only to get demolished and robbed time and again. At one end there is conversion by offering money and food and the other end dangling green cards in front of people or their relatives who are part of the establishment. What good is Hindu nationalism if it is corrupted at all ends?
But I don't claim this is as the single solution. There are committed Hindu rakshaks who physically protect others from rampaging mobs and their dream maybe to construct a grand symbol which erases historic wrongs. Who am I to say them please wait till we consolidate. I can only say that this need not necessarily coincide with election cycles and definitely not top down.
Anyway, your post made me think about who are the king or kings who rallied under Hindu dharma. I guess I have to dig deep into history to find out.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 21 Mar 2014 19:58

prahaar wrote:
Ashok Sarraff wrote:Former revenue secretary NK Singh quits JDU, joins BJP

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/former-reven ... 37-64.html
Is this the brother of Purnia BJP MP Udai Singh? It seems a wholesale movement of elites connected with Congress moving to BJP. I hope, old BJP faces are not left holding a katora in terms of rewards for the hard work in tough times.

Slippery fellow. His Rajya Sabha term is coming to an end now. He was in the NDTV studios with Barkha and Vir Sanghvi on counting day in 2009. Barkha and Vir were jubilant at the Congress victory and the three of them were talking excitedly about a secular JDU dumping the BJP and supporting the Congress in the near future. It was disgusting to listen to the cabal. NK singh was dropping hints even then about the possibility.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 21 Mar 2014 20:05

BJP is more prone to dissension, not that much due to candidate and rebellion factors, but due to perception.

BJP is indeed considered by many as a disciplined cadre-based party with certain principles and goals. However that idealistic view gets a severe hit at the time of ticket distribution because often than rebellion pops up, and rejected candidates start attacking the party. This causes lots of cynicism among the voters who wanted to identify themselves with the ideals of the party. The people then start saying, that the party is not about ideals but about power and greed; if the party could not convince its own leadership of the ideals, who are rising in rebellion, and if the leaders themselves cannot make sacrifices for the cause, then may be the party is not so idealistic after all. The realism of politics sets in. That is when BJP takes a hit.

Often people think that the hit was due to a bungled up ticket-distribution. Can be! But in any ticket-distribution there is going to be dejected and rejected people, so some heart-burn and rebellion is to be expected. All parties experience this.

If there was any ideological factor helping Congress, then for the people it was - this party sacrificed so much and gave us freedom, Chacha Nehru was the builder of modern India, Indira Gandhi taught Pakistan a lesson in 1971, etc.

INC gets credit for past "achievements". In case of BJP it is the "cause" that matters and people then use the Gold Standard to measure the party. When dissension pops its head, then BJP fails the gold standard. In case of INC and other parties there is less disappointment simply because people accept them for what they are - a bunch of powerful people who want to get elected, and hopefully they think of the us, voters, as well when in power.

Cause, Dissension => Cynicism.

So if LK Advani goes into sulk it affects Modi's image.

That is why Modi has opened the doors to politicos from other parties. He wants to give the impression that politicos are flocking to him because they are convinced of both his message, the cause, and his invincibility. All important leaders have to be accommodated because BJP this time does not want to give an impression of a house divided - no to little dissension.

Even Sushma is cajoled.

After May 16, 2014 NaMo is Bharat's Samrat and a Samrat becomes a 'Cause' by itself.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 21 Mar 2014 20:12

muraliravi wrote:While i agree about Sonepat and Udhampur, bhagalpur if fine. Shahnawaz will win there and Ashwini will win Buxar. So i see no loss.

Is the BJP candidate in Sonepat a vote-katua candidate so that INLD can win? If INLD wins even a single seat, then Modi can bring INLD into the NDA and thus have a coalition with INLD during the assembly elections as well. Otherwise may have to go with HJC onlee!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 21 Mar 2014 20:23

RajeshA wrote:
muraliravi wrote:While i agree about Sonepat and Udhampur, bhagalpur if fine. Shahnawaz will win there and Ashwini will win Buxar. So i see no loss.
Is the BJP candidate in Sonepat a vote-katua candidate so that INLD can win? If INLD wins even a single seat, then Modi can bring INLD into the NDA and thus have a coalition with INLD during the assembly elections as well. Otherwise may have to go with HJC onlee!

Maybe, i heard that sangwan is a INLD guy who won the seat last time on BJP symbol, so maybe he will contest on INLD ticket. We need someone to confirm this.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 21 Mar 2014 20:41

Ashok Sarraff wrote:This is a BIG news! N.K. Singh can be a Vibhishan for Modi - he knows (or should know because of his erstwhile position) all the financial/corruption related secrets of the dynasty and the larger C-System. If deployed properly, he can be a potent weapon against the dynasty and its minions.

You got to be careful. They can be dynast's moles too. Just like NDA got shafted from Brijesh Mishra types, they should take and use but not put them in inside circle. Inside circle should be poly-passed-modi-rss types onlee.

satya · Post by **satya** » 21 Mar 2014 20:47

Murliji

Let Sonipat go . It doesn't matter who the opposition candidate is if (big 'if') electorate in Sonipat are angry with Hooda then they will vote for anyone /nameless/ faceless opposition candidate . To me this is as simple as that.

NK Singhji is the one who made Nitish babu do day-dreaming of being PM .

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 21 Mar 2014 20:48

muraliravi wrote:
RajeshA wrote: Is the BJP candidate in Sonepat a vote-katua candidate so that INLD can win? If INLD wins even a single seat, then Modi can bring INLD into the NDA and thus have a coalition with INLD during the assembly elections as well. Otherwise may have to go with HJC onlee!
Maybe, i heard that sangwan is a INLD guy who won the seat last time on BJP symbol, so maybe he will contest on INLD ticket. We need someone to confirm this.

Kishan Singh Sangwan was in BJP for quite some time (maybe he came from INLD, I don't know, but he was in BJP since 1999, at least). He won in 1999, and 2004, but lost in 2009 to Hooda's nominee, even with Chauthala's support. After Kishan Singh's death, his son, Pradeep, is trying to establish himself as a leader in Sonepat. But Pradeep's goals and BJP goals are different. Pradeep is not trying to win as an independent either. He wants to establish himself as a leader of significance for the coming Assembly elections by winning a decent amount of votes. BJP needed to field a Brahmin somewhere in Haryana. Since they have no Brahmins of significance (if Sushi auntie had decided to contest Karnal, several problems could have been solved in one shot), they fielded Ramesh Kaushik in a losing seat to balance out the caste equations and consolidate Brahmin vote in the state. Hence the disconnect.

As for the people who are claiming that BJP can win in Sonepat, it is very hard. This is Hooda's home turf. A germ of dissent against Hooda exists, but BJP has no one with the political credentials to pull of a victory by exploiting the dissent. Simply put, it would take a Jat with phenomenal credentials to pull off a victory here. Pradeep Sangwan just is not up to the task.