Bharat Rakshak

Dussehra of course. Even supplies have slowed down a little since the companies are probably giving their employees some time off, as a result of which incremental daily supplies available with states hasn't risen that much over the last two days - it's "only" 89 million now, almost 40m more than long term average over the prior month and half.

A few mass vaccination drives right after Dussehra should help get numbers over 1 billion quickly, currently at 972m.

Manish_P wrote:^ Amber G ji

A request (if possible and not too much trouble)

How are the actual numbers of the third wave comparing to the prediction model shared by you a few months ago.

I think the prediction graph was posted on 17th August. The post is on page 318 of this thread.

Short answer: Sutra forecast - especially for near term (2-3 months) has been *very* accurate. But this can be checked bu anyone as the graph(s) are well distributed and have been studied for accuracy of the model.
But "prediction" is *not* the main reason for this (or any) model. Uncertain things like emergence of new variant, or if the people will start using mask etc - no one can predict it "scientifically"-- This is not astrology or guesswork - what it does do is - when the things are stable (parameters are not drifting) the model can predict *at the district level* and advise how to use the resources etc - and it can model - "what if scenerios" very accurately. ..

Let me just give one examples ( many such details are in the report link provided earlier).
The computation for the graph below for UP was made in early April (before the wave hit UP).. advising some sort of restrictions which fortunately were put (mainly weekends and nights on movement). These measures brought down contact rate from 0.6 to 0.3 (The reduced contact rate was roughly the same as achieved by many other states with a strict lockdown - as modeled. Some states listened to us better than others - UP was one of the state where admin had quite a bit trust in us scientists)!

The effect can be seen in this graph. (Values for computation was done in early April)


***
Interestingly the modeling for other countries (USA - I am familiar with) has been *extremely* good as the modeled graph fit better than any other model I know...


Hope this helps.
(As we had no new variants in August/September/October_till now and vaccinations are going as expected the chances of third wave is indeed *very* remote - may see some localized ripples but not nationwide)

Manindra Agrawal - of the SUTRA model fame - is interviewed here by Swarajyamag:
IIT-Kanpur Scientist Manindra Agrawal Says Possibilities Of Covid-19 Third Wave Are Low

Good to see some main-stream media covering this. I am also happy that GoI/DST were able to rope in renowned scientists like Manindra Agrawal to lead this effort and he agreed to do it.

For those who may not know - as someone remarked - working on Sutra model for Manindra was quite 'routine/ordinary' work for him compared to what he has done in Math/number_theroy world. I have covered his work in Brf math dhaga (with many posts) in last 10-15 years. His work (Primes in P), for example, was front page story in international and National papers (like NY Times) and many of us remember his visit to USA to present his work. (His UG students - whom USA denied visa's because of the sanctions post nuclear test - are now well respected professors too).

I see another coverage here:
https://youtu.be/WOxxeiURhUU

^^^Also - this thread by him is worth reading.^

In no hurry, government seeks more opinion on Covaxin for kids

Unclear why they cannot follow the data or ask for more data. The Pfizer vaccine is questionable for children due to the rare heart inflammation event that is reported. Not sure what types of adverse events they are worried about for Covaxin.

vera_k wrote:In no hurry, government seeks more opinion on Covaxin for kids

Unclear why they cannot follow the data or ask for more data. The Pfizer vaccine is questionable for children due to the rare heart inflammation event that is reported. Not sure what types of adverse events they are worried about for Covaxin.

Aren’t you contradicting yourself ? They’re literally avoiding the sort of hurried approach Pfizer took. They’ll need more time to see if any side effects appear.

Depending on the mainstream media to offer details is an act of futility. Let the government themselves announce readiness.

^ Not like Pfizer in this case. The expert committee (scientists) are recommending approval. However, the politicians are countermanding it. The situation was reversed in January where the appearance was that the scientists were hesitant to approve the vaccine, but bowed to political pressure. Hopefully this is a matter of ensuring the minority report is considered and not an ad-hoc decision.

How do you know that for a fact ? How much of MSM so far in the pandemic has been clear, unbiased and factual ?

I've been tracking the news and data for months. I have very little reason to believe anything involving quoting someone's decisionmaking. It's always better to go to the source. At the very least, the original video of an interview, or something off PIB India.

Astra Zeneca was conducting trials of their vaccine in children but the trial was stopped back in April pending a safety review. I have been unable to find an update on the status. Would appreciate any links if anyone has any. We are going to have a lot more doses of Covishield available than any other vaccine for the foreseeable future so it would be great if its safety and efficacy is verified in Children.

Prasannasimha on Twitter mentions Covishield will likely never get approved for kids due to particular reasons to do with the nature of the vaccine, but that Covaxin does not have the same problem.

https://twitter.com/Prasannasimha/statu ... 7428446210

India will soon cross 100 crore vaccination milestone in a week or two.

This must be celebrated. It is really a huge achievement.

Remember India has within 17 months of the genome of the virus publication

1. Put 3 very effective vaccines in public. That is phase 1, 2 and 3 completed
2. World's first DNA vaccine for humans
3. 1 Billion vaccinated with at least one jab
4. Brilliant vaccination strategy with even more brilliant scalable COWIN app (and platform)
5. World's largest adult vaccination program

One can keep on adding more. And more. And more. However, this kind of mobilization at war footing is rare and has been exquisite to observe.

And it has crushed the 3rd wave. Right in time for the festive season.

---

Why vaccination rates will be around 4-5m for couple of months.

If one looks at data, the month of July had an average of ~45 lakhs per day. I do not have the breakdown for covishield vis-a-vis covaxin, remember the recommendation is 84-112 days gap for 2nd dose of covishield. That is anyone getting a covishield jab on July 15 is eligible for 2nd jab only from October 7 onwards. Hence the cohort of 2nd does will be somewhere ~45-50 lakhs daily.

Similarly, in August the average per day was ~60 lakhs or 6 million.

Of course one can say that Covaxin has 30 days gap. At the same time, some of the covishield from April would have got a second dose in July. Hence I am roughly equalizing it.

Point is, it will be difficult to see daily vaccinations in the order of 10-20 millions (or 1-2 crore) in October. And November.

And back to December, the daily vaccination will pick up again. Since September was a spectacular month, the 2nd dose after 84 days follows in December. Give or take a week.

---

This is a study from the TB program regarding the reasons for non-adherence to the TB regimen

https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/8 ... 90/6267282

Reason for Missing Doses.................. n (%) Rarely n (%) Sometimes, n (%) Often, n (%)
Traveling or being away from home 67 (40.1%) 37 (22.2%) 19 (11.4%) .......11 (6.6%)
Simply forgot ..........................50 (29.9%) 28 (16.8%) 11 (6.6%) 11 (6.6%)
Felt depressed ..........................39 (23.3%) 16 (9.6%) 16 (9.6%) 7 (4.2%)
Ran out of pills ....................35 (21.0%) 29 (17.4%) 3 (1.8%) 3 (1.8%)
Wanted to avoid medication adverse effects 29 (17.4%) 15 (9.0%) 8 (4.8%) 6 (3.6%)
Reduced motivation because TB symptoms improved 19 (11.4%) 7 (4.2%) 5 (3.0%) 7 (4.2%)
Had too many pills to take for different conditions 17 (10.2%) 9 (5.4%) 4 (2.4%) 4 (2.4%)

Point is that there is always some population that due to various reasons discontinue their treatment. In case of antibiotics, several stop the course in between since they start to feel better for example.

In case of long term treatment, for coronavirus the 2nd dosage is ~3 months away for most cases, nearest comparable is a long term TB regimen.

So what are the conclusions?

The CoWin app takes out the "travelling and being away from home" reason away. One can travel and get coronavirus vaccine shot wherever you find it convenient. On the way, in the way, out of the way does not matter. This is actually a great benefit. And the beauty of the Cowin app.

There will also be some class of people who will be "simply forgot", "already feel better", "there is no 3rd wave" category when it comes to 2nd dose. Thankfully that's ~7% of the population in case of TB sample. Similar category does exist for Coronavirus vaccines, but it will be smaller. *

* This remains to be seen, so the November and December numbers need to be particularly watched.

disha wrote:India will soon cross 100 crore vaccination milestone in a week or two.

This must be celebrated. It is really a huge achievement.

Remember India has within 17 months of the genome of the virus publication

1. Put 3 very effective vaccines in public. That is phase 1, 2 and 3 completed
2. World's first DNA vaccine for humans
3. 1 Billion vaccinated with at least one jab
4. Brilliant vaccination strategy with even more brilliant scalable COWIN app (and platform)
5. World's largest adult vaccination program

One can keep on adding more. And more. And more. However, this kind of mobilization at war footing is rare and has been exquisite to observe.

And it has crushed the 3rd wave. Right in time for the festive season.

---

“And all is quite on the BIFront”

There is a stunning silence from BIF. I think they are busy digging up some dirt somewhere else. The "world food index rank of India" did not get much mileage. Or maybe, this https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02385-x shut them up completely for now. I do dare the racist nytimes to make a cartoon of India on the pandemic.

Now since the Navratri/Dusshera is over, the vaccination rate may pick up and we have a real happy diwali on Nov 4. Lot to celebrate.

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/a ... 41617.html

India reported 13,596 new Covid-19 cases on Monday, the lowest in 230 days, and 166 deaths, data published by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare showed.

Heavy rains in some areas is keeping the movement low and hopefully the R0 is also low. At the same time almost 100 cr. got at least first jab. That is a major accomplishment.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-58880429

Starting Friday, the country will grant tourist visas to travellers arriving on chartered flights.

The facility will be extended to those arriving on commercial flights from 15 November.

Foreign tourists who land in India on Friday will be the first to come into the country in 19 months.

No tourist visas have been issued since March 2020

Will that boost the tourism sector? Hopefully.

However, experts and government officials continue to warn against complacency, saying that popular tourist destinations could act as Covid "super spreaders" of the third wave of infection which, they say, is inevitable.

I am sure that GOI has already planned for this. And I am being cautiously optimistic.

Covaxin still does not have the WHO nod

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... l-7578616/

More documents are being asked for.

Either the company has done a poor job of documenting its trials of various phases out there is something else.

I posted about this in response to WHO: https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1450145810184691713

Thank you Amber maja aa gaya that vaccine anthem. Kailash kher my favorite singer. the best.

Tanaji boss WHO does not give nod to covaxin because it is also known as chinese health organisation, WHO my foot.Thank you suraj for terrific scientific reply to these crooks of so called WHO.

And while I am at it. That BS report about world hunger index, is along the same lines

Collin Powell's death has made headline news. He died even though he was fully vaccinated. Colin Powell had multiple myeloma—a cancer of plasma cells that **makes antibodies**. Thus, vaccines are weaker in myeloma patients because the cells that make antibodies are killed by myeloma treatments.
(The General and his family knew this - that vaccines for him was less effective yet he encouraged everyone to get vaccinated)

Please get Vaccinated!

It is quite surprising that while we are approaching 100 crores doses of vaccines administration. We are not really seeing any major celeberations planned for the landmark accomplishments.

Will it pass as a matter of fact accomplishment.

@WHO is a biased & corrupt organization.

Their recent conduct during the pandemic destroyed their credibility.

many have rightly exposed their bias against Covaxin.

sadly many UN agencies have become extension arms of vested interests against India.

the recent "Hunger Index by FAO is an example

@WHO handed over EUL to Sinopharm within 10 days of meeting despite 'very low level of confidence' against VOCs n patchy data. EUL awarded based on interim data itself yet #Covaxin, which outperformed others against all variants, needs scrutiny.

via@stratlogan 9:08 am · 19 Oct 2021

We are aware that many people are waiting for WHO’s recommendation for Covaxin to be included in the #COVID19 Emergency Use Listing, but we cannot cut corners - before recommending a product for emergency use, we must evaluate it thoroughly to make sure it is safe and effective.

via@WHO 5:30 pm · 18 Oct 2021

Suraj'san, very appropriate response to WHO. Will swarajyamag be able to publish it as open questions for WHO?

In the meantime,

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/down-unde ... y-lockdown

Auckland, New Zealand's biggest city and economic hub, will continue to be in lockdown for two more weeks as it battles to contain the Delta variant of coronavirus even as country attempts to accelerate its vaccination drive.

I have a humble suggestion to BRF posters. Please forward the above to all your woke network who were ga-ga over municipal mayor Jacinda Arden

Is China’s sh!tty sinovac approved?

sanjaykumar wrote:Is China’s sh!tty sinovac approved?

Yes. https://www.who.int/news/item/01-06-202 ... mendations

1 June 2021 News release

WHO today validated the Sinovac-CoronaVac COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use, giving countries, funders, procuring agencies and communities the assurance that it meets international standards for safety, efficacy and manufacturing. The vaccine is produced by the Beijing-based pharmaceutical company Sinovac.

“The world desperately needs multiple COVID-19 vaccines to address the huge access inequity across the globe,” said Dr Mariângela Simão, WHO Assistant-Director General for Access to Health Products. “We urge manufacturers to participate in the COVAX Facility, share their knowhow and data and contribute to bringing the pandemic under control.”

That WHO chief is in China's pocket. WHO never investigated China's connection to COVID 19. They approved their vaccine which is probably no better than saline water or a placebo.

India has responded to the WHO action by pausing its participation in COVAX:
India delays COVID-19 vaccine supplies to WHO-backed COVAX, sources say
Good to see the government play hardball.

Excellent ! We should only provide BB Covaxin for Covax and Gavi programs, at international prices

No the point here is that we are not contributing to COVAX/Gavi at all - not even Covishield. We're cutting independent agreements with countries instead. The math here is simple - per dose cost of Covishield to India is Rs.205, Covaxin is Rs.215 and even Zycov-D is Rs.275 (reference) .

The per-dose Pfizer cost is now up to $25 (Rs.1875) or more. Same for Moderna. COVAX is funded by western money, preserving western IP while leveraging largely Indian manufacturing. We simply declined - they can manufacture and export at cost if they want. Having previously denied us raw materials it's not like they have anything they can take away in retaliation.

The only thing here is that there will be a raft of press blaming India for 'killing millions by refusing to participate in COVAX', which is a charade because we're exporting vaccines anyways - just not via COVAX.

Amber G. wrote:(The General and his family knew this - that vaccines for him was less effective yet he encouraged everyone to get vaccinated)

Please get Vaccinated!

Seems they did not get a booster dose! I wasn't able to find what vaccine they had received, but the Pfizer vaccine effectiveness is known to be much lower months after vaccination. Anyone who was vaccinated 6 months or so ago and is in contact with people should go get a booster dose as recommended by the CDC. These are easily available in the USA. In India, I have heard that local doctors are providing booster doses off-Cowin if antibody counts come back low.

vera_k wrote:

Amber G. wrote:(The General and his family knew this - that vaccines for him was less effective yet he encouraged everyone to get vaccinated)

Please get Vaccinated!

Seems they did not get a booster dose! I wasn't able to find what vaccine they had received, but the Pfizer vaccine effectiveness is known to be much lower months after vaccination. Anyone who was vaccinated 6 months or so ago and is in contact with people should go get a booster dose as recommended by the CDC. These are easily available in the USA. In India, I have heard that local doctors are providing booster doses off-Cowin if antibody counts come back low.

From what I have read, it seems he had multiple myeloma which greatly reduces the number of antibodies that are produced after an mRNa vaccine compared to an individual who is not immuno-compromised (something like 1/20th). I am not sure if the same would be applicable for Covaxin or Covishield.

^Indian study finds big drop in COVID antibodies within four months of vaccination

vera_k wrote:

Amber G. wrote:(The General and his family knew this - that vaccines for him was less effective yet he encouraged everyone to get vaccinated)

Please get Vaccinated!

Seems they did not get a booster dose! I wasn't able to find what vaccine they had received, but the Pfizer vaccine effectiveness is known to be much lower months after vaccination. Anyone who was vaccinated 6 months or so ago and is in contact with people should go get a booster dose as recommended by the CDC. These are easily available in the USA. In India, I have heard that local doctors are providing booster doses off-Cowin if antibody counts come back low.

(Not a health expert - but according to someone who knows the details) He got Pfizer. They say that the other mRNA (Moderna) would have been better.

(Of course, if most others around him and in his state/country have gotten vaccinations - would have been very helpful to him - Mass vaccinations help those for whom vaccine is not very effective)

There is an excellent thread by @VincentRK (Editor - Blood Cancer Journal; Professor, Mayo Clinic) who has covered this recently..(Link: https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/14 ... 96962?s=20)

vera_k wrote:^Indian study finds big drop in COVID antibodies within four months of vaccination

From the above:

Waning antibodies do not necessarily mean that immunised people lose their ability to counter the disease, as the body's memory cells may still kick in to offer substantial protection, said the director of a state-run institute that did the study.

This kind of "reasoning"/data etc has gone in SUTRA modeling and verifying the model. the numbers they used is quie consistent with the above study. People also lose/vane antibodies with time after natural infection too..From Indian data it seems antibodies acquired after "natural" infection last longer than vaccine but all this data etc is still quite preliminary and it will be studied for years..

Per News sources: India has delayed committing supplies of vaccine to the COVAX global sharing effort, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday, a day after one of its key backers, the WHO, said the agency could not "cut corners" to approve a domestically developed vaccine.

I think that the days of taking India for granted or trying to bully Modi are long gone.

If they try, they will get the horns, like the britshits found out the hard way, just last week...


WHO said yesterday that they can not "cut corners" to approve India's Covaxin.

Today, India has delayed the supplies of vaccines to the WHO backed COVAX.







India delays COVID-19 vaccine supplies to WHO-backed COVAX, sources say

NEW DELHI, Oct 19 (Reuters) - India has delayed committing supplies of vaccine to the COVAX global sharing effort, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday, a day after one of its key backers, the WHO, said the agency could not "cut corners" to approve a domestically developed vaccine.

The world's biggest vaccine maker resumed exports of COVID-19 doses this month for the first time since April. It has sent about 4 million to countries such as neighboring Bangladesh and Iran, but none to COVAX. read more

Delayed supplies to COVAX could disrupt inoculation drives in many African nations that rely on it for vaccines.

On Monday, in the run-up to an Oct. 26 meeting on Covaxin, India's first domestically developed COVID-19 vaccine, the World Health Organization (WHO) said it could not "cut corners" in the approval decision.

One of the sources said it was "frustrating" that India had yet to confirm any supply to COVAX, despite a promise by the health minister last month to meet the commitment to COVAX and others during the quarter to December.

The sources, who have been briefed on the export talks, declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak on the subject.

"We are still waiting for confirmation on when and how many doses we can expect when exports do resume, and are not aware of any specific delay," COVAX co-lead GAVI, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, said in an email.

"Indian vaccines have a powerful role to play" in ending the pandemic, it added.

India's health ministry, WHO and the Serum Institute of India (SII), which is the world's biggest maker of vaccines, did not respond to requests for comment.

SII, contracted to supply hundreds of millions of doses of a version of the AstraZeneca (AZN.L) vaccine to COVAX and countries such as Bangladesh, has more than tripled its output of the vaccine since April, to reach 220 million doses a month.

Indian government officials have said they are confident the WHO will soon approve emergency use of Covaxin, which accounts for 11% of the 990 million doses India has injected, with the rest mostly from AstraZeneca.

A few weeks ago, Adar Poonawalla, the chief executive of SII, told the Telegraph newspaper that the company would resume exports to COVAX in October.

"Initially these supplies will be small, but by January 2022, once we have satisfied domestic demands ... we will see large volumes go to COVAX," he added. read more

Before India halted overseas vaccine shipments in April to fill domestic demand, it donated or sold more than 66 million COVID-19 doses, including Covaxin.

Reporting by Krishna N. Das

ritesh wrote:

Pratyush wrote:I have a feeling that the issues with covaxin are political and not technical.

If they feel Modi's India doesn't have any levers than let them enjoy char din ki Chandini. We have them by their b@lls courtesy Covovax... Export can and will stop again, if necessary.

Quoting myself... Thank god this govt have grow a pair and is not afraid to flex it's muscles.

^^^

Amber G. wrote:Per News sources: India has delayed committing supplies of vaccine to the COVAX global sharing effort, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday, a day after one of its key backers, the WHO, said the agency could not "cut corners" to approve a domestically developed vaccine.

Now..
Ghebreyesus (Director-General of the World Health Organization)'s Tweet.

Had a call with @mansukhmandviya, India's Health Minister, to discuss #India's ongoing #COVID19 vaccination programme; the need for a global pandemic agreement; digital health; & traditional medicine. We welcome India's support to strengthen WHO, incl. via flexible, sustainable financing,"

..
Also:

The Minister and I also discussed #VaccinEquity issues: the resumption of SII/AstraZeneca vaccine supplies to #COVAX; the Covaxin Emergency Use Listing process; and technology and license sharing through C-TAP.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Pfizer and Sinopharm has forced the hand of WHO to delay EUA for Covaxin.

1 billion doses completed.