Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[SSridhar]

India takes up issue with China over supporting Pak on Lakhvi - PTI, Business Line

India runs a huge trade deficit with China which means that India can use it as leverage to inflict some pain on it. The fact that there is a quid-pro-quo must be made known to the Chinese.

India has taken up the issue with China at the highest level after it blocked move at UN for action against Pakistan over release of Zaki—ur—Rehman Lakhvi, said Ministry of External Affairs today.

China has blocked India’s move in the UN demanding action against Pakistan over release of Mumbai attack mastermind and LeT commander Zaki—ur—Rehman Lakhvi in violation of a resolution of the world body as it contended that India provided insufficient information.

As the UN Sanctions Committee met here at India’s request, a clarification was to be sought from Pakistan over Lakhvi’s release in the 26/11 trial but the Chinese representatives blocked the move on grounds that India did not provide sufficient information, official sources said.

In a letter to the current Chair of the UN Sanctions Committee Jim McLay, India’s Permanent Representative to the UN Asoke Mukherjee last month had said Lakhvi’s release by a Pakistani court was in violation of the 1267 UN resolution dealing with designated entities and individuals.

The sanctions measures apply to designated individuals and entities associated with terror groups including al—Qaeda and LeT, wherever located.

The sanctions’ committee has five permanent and 10 non—permanent UN member states in it.

[SSridhar]

It puts this news into perspective and the Chinese interests to invest within India.

The Chinese also challenged the award of contract for super critical 2X660 MW Ennore project to BHEL. The Madras HC struck the Chinese challenge down as devoid of any merit.

The judge also noted, “It is seen from the current files that the petitioner was aware of every move and every step taken by TANGEDCO and the writ petitioner appears to have chased the decision-making process at every stage right from May 30, 2014 making their conduct more suspicious than that of the others.”

[schinnas]

The red sanders smuggling is a huge operation by the Chinese who have penetrated too far and too deep into Southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu and Karnataka. This is worrying.

It puts this news into perspective and the Chinese interests to invest within India.

In ASEAN, Chinese run the most smuggling rings and operate the most ruthless mafia gangs. Even in US, they are are a formidable mafia presence along with Russians, Italians and Blacks. Smuggling, counterfeit rackets, financial frauds, human trafficking, illegal gambling and prostitution are Chinese strong plays in several countries in the world. While the Chinese intelligence can leverage these guys for various purposes, they for most part operate independently. I would assume that PLA and Cheen intelligence wings will turn keep tabs on them with a view to using them as assets or have them run minor spy and HUMINT operations for them. Chinese mafia and smuggling operators that have infiltrated various countries gives China a big hidden leverage and asset to which many countries do not have an equal to.

This is very similar to how PLA is leveraging Cheen hackers. Cheen and Hong Kong have always had very strong and highly capable underground code breaking and hacking groups. The availability of hacker talent in Cheen is next only to US. Instead of cracking down on them, PLA has carefully cultivated them and leverages them to launch cyber warfare for strategic reasons. India's gap w.r.to cyber warfare against Cheen is much bigger than our gap in military hardware. It is going to take several years of sustained partnership with private players and import of highly capable Indian origin security experts. Given the talent gap in this area, India would do well to start with a predominantly defensive cyber warfare team and slowly expand into the offensive side.

[Tuvaluan]

India's gap w.r.to cyber warfare against Cheen is much bigger than our gap in military hardware. It is going to take several years of sustained partnership with private players and import of highly capable Indian origin security experts.

Add to it that thanks to the thieves in the UPA regime (and the babus who are in charge of all this), India is running entire cell phone networks from Huawei and other chinese vendors -- the chinese can just disable a good part of the Indian cell phone network if they wanted to, at this time. They certainly have the means to do so.

Even more awesome is that, as a response to this, the UPA govt. opened a cybersecurity organization in New Delhi in collaboration with the University of Nebraska (the same lovely university that wrote all the jihadi textbooks in pakistan and afghanisthan during the cold war) -- entire top echelons of the bureaucracy must be utterly incompetent, if we go by these terrible decisions they make even when they possess information that should give them sufficient caution. Suffice to say that a CIA-infiltrated Cybersecurity organization in India is not going to be of much use to India - it only allows the USA to tap into India's networks for their own benefit.

[Peregrine]

At least 18 dead in attack in China's Xinjiang

BEIJING: At least 18 people are dead after ethnic Uighurs attacked police with knives and bombs at a traffic checkpoint in China's western Xinjiang region, Radio Free Asia reported on Wednesday.

The attack occurred on Monday in a district of the southern city of Kashgar, where tensions between Muslim Uighurs that call the region home and the majority Han Chinese have led to bloodshed in recent years.

Suspects killed several police officers with knives and bombs after speeding through a traffic checkpoint in a car in Kashgar's Tahtakoruk district, US-based Radio Free Asia said, citing Turghun Memet, an officer at a nearby police station.

Armed police responded to the attack and killed 15 suspects "designated as terrorists," Radio Free Asia cited Memet as saying.

The attack comes at the beginning of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, a sensitive time in Xinjiang after an uptick in attacks over the past three years in which hundreds have died, blamed by Beijing on Islamist militants.

Repeated calls to the Xinjiang government news office were not answered. Such incidents are frequently reported in overseas media but not confirmed by the Chinese government until days later, if ever.

Exiled Uighur groups and human rights activists say repressive government policies in Xinjiang, including controls on Islam and on Uighur culture, have provoked unrest, a claim that Beijing denies.

Thank you Cwapistani based Uighur Terrorist. China has finally got its "Presents" for the US$ 46 Billion being given to Cwapistan.

Cheers

[schinnas]

Mods- this post might be OT. Any further discussion on it I will move to appropriate threads, but leaving it here given the context of the discussion above.

Tuvaluan ji:
Yes. Change has to happen from the top of babucracy. We need industry leaders with proven track record and decent awareness of strategic issues (say BRF followers) as advisors / secretaries in key departments that make these decisions. Using general purpose IAS officers for such decision making is not going to work, regardless of whether they are well talented or have the best intentions as they will utterly lack domain expertise or worse, imagine themselves to be well versed in the domain just because they picked up some jargon and attended a few seminars. Any reform that does not fundamentally transform our civil services set up will be half backed at best, imho. It was heartening to see that there is a move to hire lateral talent for IFS. Hope the same is extended to IRS (revenue service), IRS (Railway service), IAS and IPS (postal service). For example, any of these executives who have an accomplished track record in supply chain management for large multi-billion retail operations will do much better than a generic IAS babu as Secretary of Public Distribution Service. Mostly babus will bring in incremental changes and streamline execution and not fundamentally transform their area of responsibility unless they have multiple years of domain expertise and exposure to Industry best practices under their belt.

A larger civil services reform is needed. All these civil servants should have limited tenure which can be extended based on performance and at any level there should be option to laterally hire (and train) market talent while ensuring that there is no conflict of interest.

[SSridhar]

"Paving paradise": Scientists alarmed over China island building in disputed sea - Reuters, Economic Times

Concern is mounting among some scientists that China's reclamation work in the disputed Spratly archipelago of the South China Sea has done severe harm to one of the most important coral reef systems in Southeast Asia.

China's use of dredged sand and coral to build artificial islands on seven reefs had also damaged reef systems beyond the outposts, meaning the affected area could be greater than first thought, several scientists who have studied satellite images of the Spratlys said.

Those concerns contrast with repeated official Chinese statements that Beijing is committed to protecting reefs and the broader marine environment in the South China Sea in keeping with its obligations under United Nations conventions.

John McManus, a prominent University of Miami marine biologist who has worked with Philippine scientists to research the South China Sea, told fellow experts this month that China's reclamation "constitutes the most rapid rate of permanent loss of coral reef area in human history".

Beyond the outposts, a wider area of reef had been destroyed by the dredging of sand from lagoons for use on the new islands and the dredging of shipping channels to access them, he wrote in an online oceanographic forum operated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a federal agency.

Reached by Reuters on Wednesday, McManus urged claimants to put aside their disputes and create a marine "peace park" to preserve what was left.

"I can't help but use the phrase overused for forestry ... they've paved paradise," he said.

Most foreign criticism of China over its new islands has focused on the spike in tensions their creation has caused or the possible impact on freedom of navigation, especially since Beijing has said the outposts will have undefined military purposes.

Only the Philippines has publicly accused China of causing ecological damage. On Monday, Manila said China's reclamation had caused annual economic losses of $281 million to regional coastal nations.

Asked to respond to the scientists' concerns, China's Foreign Ministry referred Reuters to a statement last week from the State Oceanic Administration, the maritime regulator, which said numerous environmental protection measures were in place.

"Impact on coral reef ecology is localised, temporary, controllable and restorable," the agency said.

It did not respond to a request for further comment.

BIOLOGICALLY DIVERSE

Chinese dredgers in the Spratlys have reclaimed some 2,000 acres (800 hectares), or 8 square km, of land since reclamation began in late 2013, U.S. officials say.

Other claimants, particularly Vietnam, have reclaimed land to support existing outposts or extend piers and runways but on a much smaller scale. The remaining claimants to the Spratlys waters are the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei.

While the Spratly reefs are relatively small compared to major global reef systems, they are considered biologically diverse and could help propagate threatened coastal reefs with coral larvae and fish, scientists said.

They are also home to endangered sea creatures including giant clams, dugongs and several species of turtle.

In a study in April for Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, marine science and law expert Youna Lyons found that beyond the seven reefs, other unoccupied shallow features had been dredged to provide building material for the nearby reclamations.

"Coral reefs that have been left untouched for centuries by virtue of their isolation are now gone," Lyons wrote after research that included surveys of high-resolution satellite photographs.

Lyons, of the National University of Singapore, told Reuters this week that she had since seen further evidence of Chinese-style dredging on reefs away from the reclamations but wanted more detail on what was happening and who was behind it.

"The scale of the ongoing dredging of insular, uninhabited coral formations in the South China Sea is unprecedented in scale and nature in recent human history," she said.

"Chinese dredgers appear to be responsible for massive destruction, but we don't know how much destruction has been done, overall, and by the others before the current artificial island construction started."

"NO ONE CARES MORE THAN CHINA"

Chinese officials have said facilities on the islands would help environmental preservation, along with search and rescue and weather observation.

"No one cares more than China about the ecological preservation of relevant islands, reefs and sea areas," Ouyang Yujing, head of the Foreign Ministry's department of boundary and ocean affairs, told the official Xinhua news agency last month.

Equal importance had been given to "construction and protection", he said, adding China would honour its obligations under the U.N. conventions on Biological Diversity and International Trade in Endangered Species.

One marine biologist, Terry Hughes from James Cook University in Queensland, said the reclamation work was "locally devastating" but the Spratlys still might face bigger threats from long-term overfishing and climate change.

A study he produced with Chinese scientists in 2012 showed a steep decline in coral cover in the area due to such pressures, which are affecting reefs globally.

While Chinese construction was visually dramatic, some reefs were largely untouched, he added.

"Some of them are still in pretty good condition," he said.

[SSridhar]

Sushma Swaraj meets Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, raises Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi's issue - PTI, Economic Times

External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj today raised with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi China's blocking of India's move in the UN for action against Pakistan over 26/11 mastermind Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi's release, saying it was at "variance" with progress in ties.

In the meeting held on the sidelines of an international donors conference here [Kathmandu], Swaraj told the Chinese Foreign Minister that Lakhvi was "no ordinary terrorist" as he masterminded the Mumbai terror attack in which more than 166 people were killed.

"The External Affairs Minister raised the issue of Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi on the stand China has taken on this matter in the United Nations 1267 committee. She said both India and China have been victims of terrorism and therefore there should be no distinction made between good terrorists and bad terrorists," External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Vikas Swarup said.

"She said China's stand on the matter appears to be at variance with the excellent progress otherwise being achieved in India-China bilateral relationship," Swarup said.

He said Wang assured Swaraj that China opposes all forms of terrorism and that he will look into the matter.

"He (Wang) assured that there was no reason why India and China could not cooperate more closely on anti-terrorism efforts," Swarup said.

[vijaykarthik]

Mods- this post might be OT. Any further discussion on it I will move to appropriate threads, but leaving it here given the context of the discussion above.

A larger civil services reform is needed. All these civil servants should have limited tenure which can be extended based on performance and at any level there should be option to laterally hire (and train) market talent while ensuring that there is no conflict of interest.

Try telling the babudom. The DoPT or whatever takes care of this got a brilliant idea from MMS [mostly vetted by many analysts / think tanks etc etc, one would presume] asking for possibility of IFS / IRS etc etc to be filled by laterals and the dept dithered, dithered a bit more and I think they also shot down the request. It will be in the backburner like our own Kargil commission findings / RFC to incorporate a new CDS and so on.

Nothing like a kick to the behind that will make the babus move and by then it will likely be too late as the backbone, the hinds, the glutes and likely the sternum will have been dislocated in that one kick to the behind.

Yes, the cyber aspect is a interesting story where we can all weigh on. But on a different day. Suffice to say that the fellas were planning on creating a list on Critical Infrastructure and how to protect them in the case of strikes etc [article 70A in 2k6?] and then finally setup a commission or taskforce to put it under the technical research wing or whatever its called. and the freaks haven't get gotten around to doing anything worthwhile except have chai, biscoot and kachoris.

[vijaykarthik]

BTW, looks like China has ensured free flow of alcohol, goodies and ensured that the restaurants [even those operated by Muslims] are kept out in Xinjiang. Its still banned to have spiritual discourses in school, not allowed to observe the Salat in schools, [public places too?] and govt servants / public sector employees are disallowed from fasting etc.

Looks like it seems to be working, if a few reports are to be believed. Ramadan might be a pretty intense month and anything could happen with these kinds of restrictions.

[SSridhar]

China bails out Pakistan on terror financing at FATF - Pranab Dhal Samanta, ToI

China has again stood by Pakistan on terror, asking India to back off at the Financial Action Task Force meet at Brisbane where New Delhi had strongly raised non-compliance by Islamabad on freezing assets of Lashkar-e-Taiba and its affiliates.

The opposition at FATF came even as India strongly raised China's obstructive position at the UN Sanctions Committee where New Delhi has protested the release of 26/11 accused Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi as a violation of UN resolution 1267 on Al Qaeda and its affiliates.

At the FATF meeting, which took place earlier this week, saw India and the US act in tandem with the latter being quite vocal on Pakistan's lack of seriousness at cracking down on LeT's assets and it fundraising efforts.

China, however, felt that Pakistan was doing all it could and had been submitting reports to the Asia Pacific Group (APG) on Money Laundering that collaborates closely with the FATF.

India had found the report inadequate on details as it just lists unnamed accounts without enough veracity regarding their origins and how that had impacted the group's functioning. India, on the other hand, had provided evidence of Falah-i-Insaniyat, a Let-JuD front, that has been openly raising funds. Also, raised in detail were the activities of LeT head Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, whose rallies have only added to the group's financial support base.

While backing Pakistan's case, China also objected to India raising the issue at the FATF on the grounds that Pakistan was not member of the grouping. Interestingly, Australia also supported the Chinese line on this. But unlike the UN, where China can put a 'technical hold' on any such matter as a permanent member of the UN security Council, the discussion at Brisbane veered towards a consensus position that the issue will now be referred to the APG for further deliberation and then brought back to the FATF.

[SSridhar]

China, India fast-track BCIM economic corridor project - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

China and India are adding fresh momentum to the establishment of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor, which is expected to develop gradually before more ambitious goals are achieved.

Chinese officials acknowledge that unlike in the past, when it was perceived to be dragging its feet, India is now showing enthusiasm over the project, which will link Kolkata with Kunming, the capital of China’s Yunnan province, passing through Myanmar and Bangladesh, with Mandalay and Dhaka among the focal points. The focus on linking provinces and States — in this case, Yunnan and West Bengal — seems to have given a new impulse to galvanising the plan.

The main artery of the 2,800-km, K (Kolkata)-2-K (Kunming) corridor is nearly ready. A stretch of less than 200 km, from Kalewa to Monywa in Myanmar, needs to be upgraded as an all-weather road.

[A_Gupta]

^^^ I saw that news-item elsewhere and came here to ask - are there any official statements about India's new-found enthusiasm for BCIM?

[A_Gupta]

Answering my own question:
June 13:
http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/I ... 863352.ece

BEIJING: India today said insurgency in the North East will not have any impact on its efforts to improve connectivity with Bangladesh, Myanmar and China under the 'Act East' policy.

"Once the Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar (BCIM) corridor comes up, I am quite sure things will be taken care of. We are committed to improving connectivity as part of our 'Act East policy'," said Minister of State for External Affairs Gen (Retd) V K Singh, who is in Kunming city to attend the China-sponsored South Asia Expo.

"The incident you referred to, I am quite sure various security agencies in the ministry of home will take care of it," he said in a brief response to question on the Manipur attack in which 18 soldiers were killed.

Singh is leading a 200-member Indian business and trade delegation which includes West Bengal Finance Minister Amit Mitra to take part in the Expo.

India is the 'country of honour' at this year's Expo.

"It has been decided that we must upgrade our relationship that exists. To upgrade that relationship economic linkage and trade and commerce are the most important issues. That is why they are being focussed on. Along with it people-to-people contacts are important. We are very sure these will create conducive conditions for resolving any problems that exist," he said.

Asked about the direction of the India-China relations after last month's visit by the Prime Minister, Singh said Premier Narendra Modi and the Chinese leadership had a great deal of discussion on this issue.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 306398.ece

The Chinese Province of Yunnan and the Indian State of West Bengal, both seeking fresh business opportunities, are imparting a new dynamic to the formation of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor, which now appears to be finding greater support in New Delhi.

“Yunnan and West Bengal are the engines of the (BCIM) corridor,” said Ashok Kantha, India’s Ambassador to China, during a speech at the India-China Economic and Tourism Cooperation Forum. Mr. Kantha’s remarks illustrated the emergence of subaltern diplomacy where Indian States and Chinese Provinces are imparting the primary impulse for change.

“I am particularly pleased to recognise the growing role of States and Provinces in taking forward our economic agenda,” Mr. Kantha observed.

Change from below

He pointed to the Provincial Leaders’ Forum, formed last month during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China, which linked Indian States and Chinese Provinces as a key mechanism for bringing about change from below.

The Yunnan-West Bengal tie-up follows a similar initiative by Guizhou International, a Chinese company based in the Province of Guizhou that is investing in a $3.5-billion project in the Kakinada Special Economic Zone in Andhra Pradesh. Minister of State for External Affairs V.K. Singh also seemed upbeat about the prospects of the BCIM. He pointed out during his keynote speech that the BCIM initiative was “in sync” with India’s thrust on accelerated development of infrastructure, which included construction of railways, industrial corridors and smart cities.

He stressed that successful emergence of “flagship projects” was now necessary to change public perceptions about the China-India economic partnership.

Discussion point - India seems OK with certain partnerships with China, e.g., BCIM, Kakinada SEZ, and not with others, such as Tibet-Nepal rail link and anything in the Indian Ocean. How is India balancing economic and defense aspects of all these things? Is there a clear policy discernable here?

[schinnas]

Despite some of the natural suspicions we may have regarding Cheen, it makes lot of sense for India to support and accelerate BCIM project. Firstly it guarantees road connectivity through Bangladesh between Calcutta and NE states. Even if relations between India and Bangladesh were to turn sour at some future point, having other stakeholders such as Cheen and ASEAN countries involved will keep Bangladesh from behaving irresponsibly.

Secondly, it will incentivise Cheen to not jeopardise the road connectivity (by using their leverage over NE militants) from Myanmar to NE states and eventually to Kolkatta.

Would be interested to know what forum gurus think on this.

[SSridhar]

^^^ I saw that news-item elsewhere and came here to ask - are there any official statements about India's new-found enthusiasm for BCIM?

I do not think that there is any official articulation of the renewed enthusiasm for BCIM. However, a few things can be surmised.

One is that this languishing project has rightly caught the attention of the Modi government. The Modi government (and to be fair to the UPA, it too) has been working overtime to integrate the neglected North East with mainstream India. The major difference between this government and the previous being that the speed of policy making, decision making and execution have been orders of magnitude different. The Land Border Agreement with Bangladesh, its quick ratification and implementation, the agreements on transportation through Bangladesh, the Motor Vehicles agreement with Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh etc all point to this.

Project Mausam, to re-establish cultural routes (or is it roots?) and maritime landscapes, needs good connectivity upto Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam and beyond into south-eastern coastal China through Thailand and Myanmar.

Japan is interested in investing in the India-Bangladesh-Myanmar-Thailand route. Japan is already building roads in Cambodia and these can be easily linked up. Of course, Japan is also interested in strategic and economic reasons of such a land route.

[Varoon Shekhar]

"xternal Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj today raised with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi China's blocking of India's move in the UN for action against Pakistan over 26/11 mastermind Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi's release, saying it was at "variance" with progress in ties.
, Swaraj told the Chinese Foreign Minister that Lakhvi was "no ordinary terrorist" as he masterminded the Mumbai terror at

The Chinese should be told very directly that not everything in international relations is about geo-politics, geo-strategy, geo-military or geo-petroleum. There are some core principles and values nations must follow, one of them being that terrorism should never be an instrument of state policy, and terrorists should not be used to further state interests.

[SSridhar]

The Chinese should be told very directly that . . . .

In fact, India has been brutally frank with China during many discussions and that stretches quite far back too.

[SSridhar]

With eye firmly on China, India to hold naval exercises with Japan, Australia, Myanmar and others - Rahul Pandit, ToI

India may still be reluctant to invite Japan, Australia and others to join its top-notch Malabar naval exercise with the US this year, in part because China protested against such a multilateral naval grouping in the Bay of Bengal the last time around. But it does not mean there is no strategic game plan underway.

Sources on Friday said India will hold a flurry of bilateral naval exercises over the coming months with countries in the critical Asia Pacific region, ranging from Australia, Japan and Indonesia to Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar and Singapore. Interspersed with them will be exercises with the US (Malabar), UK (Konkan) and Russia (Indra), with the one with France (Varuna) already being held in Arabian Sea in April-May.

As was first reported by TOI, India has "so far" kept Japan out of the initial planning for the 19th Indo-US Malabar naval combat exercise to be held in Bay of Bengal in October.{I somehow believe still that Japan would be part of the exercise in October. China is unwilling to offer any meaningful quid-pro-quo as latest events such as investments in GB, or Lakhvi's case in the UN or terror financing issue in FATF prove. This government would not endlessly be humouring the Chinese. The next edition would be off Okinawa when Australia would probably join there. From then on, it would be fait accompli for all the four navies to jointly participate in the annual Ex. Malabar wherever they are held.} This despite the Modi-Obama summits in September and January agreeing "to upgrade" the annual wargames, and both Japan and Australia keen to hop on to the bandwagon.

The previous UPA regime largely restricted the Malabar exercise to a bilateral one after China protested against its 2007 edition in Bay of Bengal especially since they were expanded to include the Japanese, Australian and Singaporean navies as well. Since then, Japan has been co-opted only when the Malabar was held in the north-western Pacific in 2009 and 2014.

Interestingly, the Bay of Bengal will be the venue for India's first-ever IN-RAN naval exercise with Australia from October 30 to November 4 as well as the JIMEX exercise with Japan thereafter in mid-November.

Around the same time, Indian and Thai warships will also hold their coordinated patrolling along their international maritime boundary line. This will be followed by a similar exercise with Myanmar in February-March next year.

Under the overall plan to counter China's huge strategic inroads in the Indian Ocean region and beyond, India is steadily building maritime bridges with other countries in the region. Four Indian warships, for instance, are currently on a long overseas deployment to South Indian Ocean and South China Sea in consonance with the "Act East" policy.

India also recently decided to crank up its bilateral defence cooperation with Vietnam through a new "joint vision statement" for 2015-2020. Apart from supplying military hardware and software, India is already training Vietnamese personnel on Kilo-class submarines and now proposes to do the same for Sukhoi fighter jets.

Much like Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines and others locked in territorial disputes with China in the East and South China Seas, India remains deeply suspicious of Beijing's expanding military might and assertiveness in Asia-Pacific.

China, in its latest policy document on defence, has also vowed to increase its "open seas protection" in tune with its expanding long-range deployments of nuclear submarines, destroyers and frigates far away from its shores.

[vijaykarthik]

working overtime to integrate the neglected North East with mainstream India. The major difference between this government and the previous being that the speed of policy making, decision making and execution have been orders of magnitude different. The Land Border Agreement with Bangladesh, its quick ratification and implementation, the agreements on transportation through Bangladesh, the Motor Vehicles agreement with Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh etc all point to this.

Project Mausam, to re-establish cultural routes (or is it roots?) and maritime landscapes, needs good connectivity upto Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam and beyond into south-eastern coastal China through Thailand and Myanmar.

Japan is interested in investing in the India-Bangladesh-Myanmar-Thailand route. Japan is already building roads in Cambodia and these can be easily linked up. Of course, Japan is also interested in strategic and economic reasons of such a land route.

to be even fairer and honest - the LBA stalled in the earlier regime thanks to the BJP. They simply didn't want the Congress to take credit. I am not sure about the SAARC agreement. We were waiting for ever for Pak to join in and now we are not. That's the difference. So, I am not sure about the orders of magnitude / decisiveness here. At least not with this particular example. But the general logic holds. This govt is far better as getting stuff done than a lot of the other earlier representations.

My own thoughts:
Its also true that NE is getting shaped and it should [as a rhetorical point to the rest: put a vertical line through Ilahabad and one will realize that all recognizable metro cities are to the West of it. If the BCIM corridor can do something good to potentially change the landscape there, it should be allowed to come to fruition. Not developing the place and complaining about armed struggle in the region is a bit idiotic. Struggle which starts as a non-violent one which will move on to an Armed struggle is inevitable if there are people there and don't have enough opportunities to get integrated with the mainland.

[vijaykarthik]

Isnt it also true that Indian warships recently docked in SHK (Cambodia) and passed through SCS and China has been quiet about it?

[SSridhar]

to be even fairer and honest - the LBA stalled in the earlier regime thanks to the BJP. They simply didn't want the Congress to take credit. I am not sure about the SAARC agreement. We were waiting for ever for Pak to join in and now we are not. That's the difference. So, I am not sure about the orders of magnitude / decisiveness here. At least not with this particular example.

On the LBA issue, you do have a point. However, in the final analysis, a government has to get things DONE somehow especially in India where there will be opposition for anything and everything. Modi was able to carry Mamata along with him which the previous government could not. There was even discussion on Teesta which Mamta participated in. Again, something that didn't happen before.

On the issue of Pakistan, the decision seems to have been made that wherever Pakistan places stumbling blocks in SAARC issues, Pakistan will be by passed. This is evident in MVA as well as in SAARC satellite proposal. More decisions of this nature will follow now, such as in SAARC University where Pakistan has not paid even a rupee. This bypass decision should have been made even in the previous NDA regime, if not even earlier. However, one must be happy that such a decision has been made at last. There are other instances too where a revised and muscular Indian policy has been put visibly in place, not only on Pakistan but also on China.

This is out of place for such a discussion and so I will not pursue this.

[SSridhar]

Isnt it also true that Indian warships recently docked in SHK (Cambodia) and passed through SCS and China has been quiet about it?

The true test will be when INS Arihant docks at Sihanoukville or at Haiphong overlooking the Sanya submarine pen. Except for that incident involving INS Airavat four years back, China has been quiet with the passage of a dozen Indian naval warships through SCS except in June 2012 when a contingent of four Indian naval ships from Philippines to South Korea (and later to visit Shanghai too) received an unexpected message, “Welcome to the South China Sea, Foxtrot-47,” While the tone of the message was welcoming, the content as well as the unwanted escort they provided for 12 hours conveyed the message that those waters belonged to China and the Indian naval ships were guests of China in Chinese waters.

[brvarsh]

To understand China we need to understand its traditional principles. It uses its soft and hard powers very effectively. They know to win a nation over you need to decapitate its resources or its ability to use it effectively. They bloat their hard power so much so to look bigger even though it is not. A different strategy is needed to deal with China.

[vijaykarthik]

^ Very interesting point, SS. As you say, that will be the true test. I wonder if it will happen anytime soon though.
And I also personally wish that we have a good number of SSBN's by then

[SSridhar]

INS Teg in Seychelles for surveillance - Dinakar Peri, The Hindu

As part of India’s deepening maritime security cooperation with Indian Ocean littoral nations, INS Teg a stealth frigate of the Indian Navy which is on a two-month long deployment in the South Indian Ocean has docked at Port Victoria in Seychelles on Friday.

This is part of its mission to carry out joint surveillance in the Seychelles Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in areas selected by Seychelles Coast Guard, with SCG personnel embarked onboard, Navy officials said.

“This is in keeping with India's national objective of ensuring a secure and stable regional environment to allow unhindered economic and social development, not just in India, but also in the entire Indian Ocean Region,” the Navy said in a statement.

Defence cooperation

The defence cooperation between the two nations includes cooperation in the field of training, hydrography and Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA). India had provided fast attack craft and Dornier aircraft to Seychelles as part of its capability enhancement.

INS Teg is also carrying items required for maintenance of SCG ships and will provide assistance for “minor defect rectification on various SCG ships”. The visit coincides with the Seychelles National Day on June 29 and a 25-man marching contingent and Naval Band will participate in the annual military parade.

The Navy has in the recent past significantly scaled up “capacity building and capability enhancement” of friendly foreign countries in addition to undertaking joint and co-ordinated anti-piracy patrols.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has laid strong emphasis on “comprehensive cooperation” in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) as a way to counter growing Chinese activity in the region and position India as the 'net security provider' in the IOR.

In his visit to Seychelles in March as part of a three-nation tour in the region, Mr. Modi called Seychelles a “vital” partner in the neighbourhood and called upon the nation to become a full partner in the maritime security cooperation between India, Maldives and Sri Lanka.

India is setting up Coastal Surveillance Radar Systems in several IOR states which will eventually be integrated into India’s coastal monitoring network.

China has also been wooing Seychelles ever since the Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Seychelles in c. 2005. Seychelles is one of the 18 'foreign naval bases' that the PLAN has proposed and is working on establishing. PLAN has classified Seychelles as a port for logistics supply and R&R for its personnel. China transferred two Y-2 turboprop aircraft for maritime patrolling and also received permission for PLAN to make frequent port calls. In Dec. 2011, the Seychelles also announced naval resupply facilities for PLAN including a fuelling fcility. The Deputy Chief of the People’s Liberation Army, Gen Ma Xiaotian met with President of Seychelles James Michel in mid-July, 2012 and reaffirmed China’s commitment to deepen bilateral military cooperation. While China claims that these developments are normal state-to-state relationships and that it is genuinely interested in protecting its SLOCs, the fact remains that India must be on extensive guard because these can be turned quickly by China into strategically encircling India. During PM Narendra Modi’s “Ocean Outreach’ visit in March 2015 to neighbouring island states in the IOR, India bagged “infrastructure developmental rights’ to the Assumption island of Seychelles. The Indian Prime Minister also said, “We also hope that Seychelles will soon be a full partner in the maritime security cooperation between India, Maldives and Sri Lanka”. India also agreed to give the Seychelles a second Dornier aircraft for coastal surveillance.

[Karthik S]

Isnt it also true that Indian warships recently docked in SHK (Cambodia) and passed through SCS and China has been quiet about it?

The true test will be when INS Arihant docks at Sihanoukville or at Haiphong overlooking the Sanya submarine pen. Except for that incident involving INS Airavat four years back, China has been quiet with the passage of a dozen Indian naval warships through SCS except in June 2012 when a contingent of four Indian naval ships from Philippines to South Korea (and later to visit Shanghai too) received an unexpected message, “Welcome to the South China Sea, Foxtrot-47,” While the tone of the message was welcoming, the content as well as the unwanted escort they provided for 12 hours conveyed the message that those waters belonged to China and the Indian naval ships were guests of China in Chinese waters.

We need to augment our anti sub capabilities simultaneously in light of Chinese submarines docking in Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

[TSJones]

We need to augment our anti sub capabilities simultaneously in light of Chinese submarines docking in Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

....and the purpose of India purchasing P-8i Poseidon naval aircraft was to.........?

[SSridhar]

Call for active collaboration to sanitise BCIM corridor - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

Chinese experts in Yunnan say that except for a 200-km stretch between Silchar in Assam and Manipur, and a similar length between Kalewa and Monywah in Myanmar, the central artery of the BCIM route is nearly functional.

Ren Jia, president of the Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences told The Hindu that if “the non-traditional threats to security are not addressed the establishment of the corridor would be endangered.”

Fighting between the Myanmar Army and the ethnic Kokang rebels, known as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, based near the Chinese border, pose a threat to the network.

The United Wa State Army, that has virtually a free reign in north-eastern Myanmar, and is known for a narcotics trafficking, poses a big security problem to the corridor. Communal violence involving Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims has also flared in Rakhine State.

The killing of 18 Indian soldiers in Manipur by Naga militants based in Myanmar has sharpened focus on sanitising the corridor through active security collaboration by the four states.

Dr. Ren pointed out that institutionalising a four-nation security partnership should become part of the recommendation of the Joint Study Group (JSG), which is expected to meet later this year in India.

Focusing “on strengthening connectivity in the BCIM region,” the JSG was formed two years ago following a Sino-Indian initiative at the prime ministerial level.

Mekong experience

Asked whether it would be premature to forge a formal arrangement involving a joint command headquarters, intelligence sharing and joint operations to target security threats along the corridor, Dr. Ren said that the BCIM countries could draw lessons from the six-nation Greater Mekong Sub-region Economic Cooperation Programme “such as joint enforcement along the Mekong river.”

“We can enforce security along the route for transportation, trade, and tourism,” she observed.

While problems related to physical connectivity maybe easier to address, establishing an appropriate legal and regulatory framework may prove harder.

[vijaykarthik]

A mea culpa. I missed the Chinese sub docking in May. Was it observed here? I just saw a news bit today that mentioned that it happened on 22nd May. Curious that not a lot of ink has been wasted on that event. Is it that the GoI wants to treat it as a minor incident?

[SSridhar]

Framework for China led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank signed - Economic Times

Countries from five continents formally signed up Monday to the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank - a potential rival to the Washington-based World Bank - as Beijing steps up its global diplomatic and economic role.

Australia was the first country to sign the articles of association creating the AIIB's legal framework at a ceremony in Beijing's Great Hall of the People, an AFP journalist saw, followed by 49 other founding members.Seven more are expected to do so by the end of the year. The bank will have a share capital of $100 billion, with $20 billion paid in initially, the document showed.

The signing "is an embodiment of the concrete action and efforts made by all countries in the spirit of solidarity, openness, inclusion and cooperation", Chinese President Xi Jinping said after the ceremony.

Signalling China's central role at the bank, he added: "Now we are willing to listen to your views and propasals".

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

[srin]

Good to see India having a substantial shareholding in the AIIB and "on the inside". Now we can only hope we have hardnosed diplomats to do what's described in Yes Minister:

Sir Humphrey: Minister, Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last five hundred years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now, when it's worked so well?
Hacker: That's all ancient history, surely?
Sir Humphrey: Yes, and current policy. We 'had' to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it's just like old times.
Hacker: But surely we're all committed to the European ideal?
Sir Humphrey: [chuckles] Really, Minister.
Hacker: If not, why are we pushing for an increase in the membership?
Sir Humphrey: Well, for the same reason. It's just like the United Nations, in fact; the more members it has, the more arguments it can stir up, the more futile and impotent it becomes.
Hacker: What appalling cynicism.
Sir Humphrey: Yes... We call it diplomacy, Minister.

[vijaykarthik]

Good to see India having a substantial shareholding in the AIIB and "on the inside". Now we can only hope we have hardnosed diplomats to do what's described in Yes Minister:

Sir Humphrey: Minister, Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last five hundred years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now, when it's worked so well?
Hacker: That's all ancient history, surely?
Sir Humphrey: Yes, and current policy. We 'had' to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it's just like old times.
Hacker: But surely we're all committed to the European ideal?
Sir Humphrey: [chuckles] Really, Minister.
Hacker: If not, why are we pushing for an increase in the membership?
Sir Humphrey: Well, for the same reason. It's just like the United Nations, in fact; the more members it has, the more arguments it can stir up, the more futile and impotent it becomes.
Hacker: What appalling cynicism.
Sir Humphrey: Yes... We call it diplomacy, Minister.

You are being unfair. I am in splits here, to be reminded of this statement, and everyone is staring at me!

Yes, Minister and Yes, PM are real gems.

[SSridhar]

82 per cent of strategic roads along Sino-Indian border unfinished - Economic Times

In 2006-07, India approved the construction of 73 strategic roads along the Sino-Indian border, but 82 per cent of these - scheduled to be ready by 2012 - are unfinished. The new deadline: 2018.

Despite ambitious plans, India cannot seem to catch up with China in building infrastructure and militarising the 3,488 km border between the two countries.

The roads are part of a quiet but extensive Indian border-strengthening plan, which includes a new army corps of 35,000 (down from 90,000) soldiers, specifically to counter China's burgeoning conventional forces across the Himalayas, and 14 strategic rail links to deploy troops and supplies.

There is little doubt that India is wary of Chinese abilities and intentions, despite recent declarations of peace.
"It is not a volatile border. Not a single bullet has been fired for over a quarter of a century now," Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in an interview with TIME magazine ahead of a visit to China.

Modi and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang also agreed to "resolve outstanding differences" and maintain "peace and tranquillity" but on the border, "transgressions" - as Chinese posturing and troop forays along the unmarked Line of Actual Control (LAC) are called - are common.

As many as 1,612 transgressions by Chinese troops inside Indian territory took place between 2010 and August 2014, according to data released by the home ministry.

New roads are being built, but progress is slow.

"While our neighbouring countries can reach the borders within two or three hours, our army takes more than a day to reach there. This is a matter of great concern with regard to our defence preparedness."

This is the observation of a parliamentary committee on defence, alluding to the situation in Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh.

No more than 19 of 73 approved roads have been built, according to the report.

Delays on 40 roads have pushed deadlines by as far as six years, while construction of two roads has not started.

In Assam, India's longest bridge, 9.15-km long, will be thrown open later this year. It'll cost Rs.876 crore (nearly $140 million) and is meant to bear the 41.5 tonne T-72 tanks and cut travel time to the Lohit district of Arunachal Pradesh, which lies along the LAC.

Rail plans are still only plans, while China nears the border

India envisages urgently building four rail lines in the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir, stretching 1,352 km, to be built collectively by the ministries of railways and defence.

While final surveys continue, China is already existing rail lines to the border: ToYatung, a trade centre close to Sikkim, and Nyingchi, a small town bordering Arunachal Pradesh. Both projects are expected to be completed by 2020.

China recently completed a railway line connecting the Tibetan capital of Lhasa to Shigatze, a town close to Nathu La, a strategic border post connecting Sikkim with the Tibetan Autonomous region.

Besides the contentious border, the Sino-Indian border dispute is also fuelled by the Chinese claim to nearly 90,000 sq. km of Arunachal Pradesh, which it refers to as South Tibet, and the Indian claim that China illegally occupied nearly 30,000 sq km of the deserted Aksai Chin region of northern Jammu and Kashmir after the 1962 war.

Chinese airfields grow stronger

Six key civilian Chinese airfields in Tibet are being expanded to handle military operations,according to Air Marshal M. Matheswaran (retd), former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defence Staff for Policy, Plans and Force Development.

Alongside, he said, China is deploying advanced military aircraft and support systems such as air-to-air refuelling capabilities, airborne advance warning systems, sensors, air-defence systems and missile stocks.

By contrast, India recently opened three advanced landing grounds (ALGs) in J&K's Ladakh region at Daulat Beg Oldi, Fuk Che and Nyoma, all close to the LAC.

Daulat Beg Oldi is the world's highest airfield at 16,614 feet. It is about 10 km from the Sino-Indian border and has seen regular landing of heavy transport aircraft.

But such landing grounds are not full-fledged air bases. They are landing strips that can be used to drop-off troops and supplies.

This is why the Indian Air Force wants to upgrade the Nyoma landing ground by 2016-17 to station fighter jets and provide logistical support to the paramilitary Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) and Ladakh Scouts, an Indian Army unit.

In Arunachal Pradesh, advanced landing grounds are being developed at Tawang, Mechuka, Vijaynagar, Tuting, Passighat, Walong, Ziro and Along, at a cost of Rs.720 crore.

Meanwhile, the Indian Air Force has to deploy its frontline Sukhoi SU-30MKI aircraft at Chabua and Tezpur air bases in Assam, up to 405 km from the border. The combat jet can cover this distance in less than 15 minutes.

[deejay]

...

In Arunachal Pradesh, advanced landing grounds are being developed at Tawang, Mechuka, Vijaynagar, Tuting, Passighat, Walong, Ziro and Along, at a cost of Rs.720 crore.

All these ALG's already exist and are in operational use for ages. I have operated from every single one of them. So what's happening - increase in infrastructure? ALG length will be difficult to increase at a few places but at a few other places full length runways (03 kms) can be made ready. Passighat, Along, Ziro are at the beginning of the hills, the rest are inside. Daporijo is not mentioned in the list and even that is in use. Tezu, Roing and North Lakhimpur also provide excellent alternatives north of Bramhaputra.

[SSridhar]

deejay, thanks for that first-hand information.

[SSridhar]

India is the second largest shareholder - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

With Japan, the other large Asian economy besides China, opting out of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s membership, India is the bank’s second largest shareholder with a stake of 8.52 per cent and a voting share of 7.5 per cent.

The voting shares are based on the size of each member country’s economy and not contribution to the bank’s authorised capital. China’s shareholding is 30.34 per cent and it has retained 26.06 per cent of the voting rights with veto powers for certain key decisions.

Apart from China and India, some of the countries which signed the agreement are Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Egypt, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Iceland, Indonesia, Iran, Israel and , Italy, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao PDR, Luxembourg, Maldives, Malta, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Portugal, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Turkey, the U.A.E and the U.K.

[SSridhar]

50 nations in, AIIB takes shape - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

India and 49 other founding members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) on Monday signed articles that determine each country’s share and the lender’s initial capital. The remaining seven founding members can sign the agreement before December 2015.

The signing ceremony took place in Beijing at the Great Hall of the People. The AIIB is expected to focus on infrastructure development in Asia, and unlike the existing International Monetary Fund and World Bank, is unlikely to restrict lending on political considerations.

Following the ceremony, China’s President Xi Jinping welcomed the heads of delegations from the Bank’s 57 prospective founding members. A special ministerial meeting was also held in the afternoon chaired by Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei.

“The AIIB is an example of constructive cooperation among emerging economies to increase the space available for infrastructure financing… It is a regional initiative and, therefore, fully complements global initiatives such as the New Development Bank (set up by the BRICS nations),” former economic diplomat and Director of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi, Rathin Roy, told The Hindu .

According to an AIIB press statement, the Bank will be headquartered in Beijing, and will have an initial authorised capital stock of $100 billion. Reflecting regional character of the Bank, its regional members will be the majority shareholders, holding around 75 percent of shares. “The Bank’s foundation will be built on international best practices and the lessons and experiences of existing multilateral development banks and the private sector,” the statement said. The AIIB is expected to become operational by the end of the year.

Ashok K Kantha, India’s Ambassador in China, led the Indian delegation at the ceremony and signed the Articles of Agreement.

India had signed the Memorandum of Understanding for Establishment of AIIB in October 2014 along with 21 regional founding members.

[SSridhar]

Exercise Malabar: Japan Navy to join India, US in Bay of Bengal - Sushanth Singh, Indian Express

The 2015 exercise will see Japan’s participation in a naval manouevre in the Bay of Bengal after eight years but Australia will not be participating in the exercise. This was confirmed at the seventh US-India-Japan trilateral dialogue held at Honolulu last Friday, according to sources.

A few days back, I had posted the following. Happy to see the Japan part of it come true. Insha Allah, the Australia part will come true next year, again as predicted.

I somehow believe still that Japan would be part of the exercise in October. China is unwilling to offer any meaningful quid-pro-quo as latest events such as investments in GB, or Lakhvi's case in the UN or terror financing issue in FATF prove. This government would not endlessly be humouring the Chinese. The next edition would be off Okinawa when Australia would probably join there. From then on, it would be fait accompli for all the four navies to jointly participate in the annual Ex. Malabar wherever they are held.

[vijaykarthik]

^ brilliant. When it comes to things like this, make pincer moves. About time India never concerned about what China really thought but express deep anguish and deepest of concerns in the public space about what China thinks and so on.

Duplicity is the need of the hour. And beat the Chinese at their own game.