Bharat Rakshak

Vips wrote:We certainly do not know if they were caught 'deep inside SL territory'. There is a difference in Fishermen crossing over the border for some distance in search of a good catch of fish and inimical elements indulging in anti-state activities.

Even otherwise there have been reports of how sri lankan military forces have been violent with our fishermen after catching them. Also, have we set a figure of Rs 1 Crore for release on bail of sri lankan fisherman caught by our Coast Guard?

Vips wrote:Fishermen of Tamil Nadu who were apprehended by the Sri lankan Navy for fishing on our border have been tried in the court and the judge has set an amount of Rs 1 crore for releasing each fishermen on bail!!!

Even otherwise there have been reports of how sri lankan military forces have been violent with our fishermen after catching them.

Manish_P wrote:^ And they think expect big brother India to feel obligated to help them out

Cyrano wrote:I think we will, and have to... we can't let such a disaster sink an entire country next to us and do nothing as a regional power. But anything substantial and enduring cannot be done without taking some control of the Govt and the administration. Things have to slide further into an emergency situation before we can intervene.

They are still touting idiotic projects like Colombo Port City while the entire country is collapsing around them.
https://theprint.in/diplomacy/crisis-hi ... st/883643/
Some more pain needs to occur before reality sinks in.

chetak wrote:...
apart from the lines of credit already extended, some food grains, a little fuel, medicines, fertilizer, and cooking gas etc will be all that they will get from India
..

tandav wrote:So easy to Honey Trap Politicians in 3rd world (perhaps even 1st world) Democracies, bribe them with women and money. Get them to accept over priced useless Infrastructure and in case of default buy it back pennies to a dollar and convert it to a military base. Essentially Srilanka made a massive useless port and borrowed money from China at usurious rates to pay Chinese companies and labour to build a massive useless port and then sold it to China for free which got a military base by stealth. Brilliant strategy by the Chinese.

Hambantota is to China what Hong Kong was to UK.

Bart S wrote:

tandav wrote:So easy to Honey Trap Politicians in 3rd world (perhaps even 1st world) Democracies, bribe them with women and money. Get them to accept over priced useless Infrastructure and in case of default buy it back pennies to a dollar and convert it to a military base. Essentially Srilanka made a massive useless port and borrowed money from China at usurious rates to pay Chinese companies and labour to build a massive useless port and then sold it to China for free which got a military base by stealth. Brilliant strategy by the Chinese.

Hambantota is to China what Hong Kong was to UK.

tandav wrote:Can India propose to accept Srilanka becoming a state of India in return for paying their debts? Does that make sense?

Manish_P wrote:

chetak wrote:...
apart from the lines of credit already extended, some food grains, a little fuel, medicines, fertilizer, and cooking gas etc will be all that they will get from India
..

Land, sir, land.

I always feel we should ask for land in return for our assistance. If any future SL government want the land back they can pay us back, at the rate we quote (heck we baniyas will even consider giving them a good discount ). If they dont have money at that time, let them take loan from China, IMF or whoever they want...

The SL politicos have just looked at their brothers across the straits and feel that they have figured out how to milk the indian central government.
It's only the fact that they are an island, far from any other countries, which is stopping them from adopting jihadistan tactics of putting a gun to their own head and threatening to spatter it over your freshly painted decor unless you give in to their 'rightful' demands.

RCase wrote:^^^
When countries like China annex Sinkiang, Tibet, artificial islands, covet the entire SCS, the world almost accepts the fait accompli. They have occupied Aksai Chin and keep intruding into Ladak and all we can do is protest and spend heavily to defend the territory. The Chinese have bamboozled all countries to accept their vague concept of 'One China' which includes Taiwan.

Similarly with Russia annexing Crimea and now parts of Ukraine.

In our own backyard, we have seen Terroristan occupying GB and POK that is causing all kinds of problems. Similarly not reconfiguring Bangladesh during the 1971 war still leaves the 'Chicken's neck' problem as well as no port access to the North East. Similarly Bhutan area resulted in the Dokhlam problem.

Going back in time, during the partition we did not incorporate Balochistan and now we are doing all kinds of twists and turns over Chinese occupation of Gwadar and courting the Iranians for Chabhar.

Apart from meek protestations, we saw SL hand over Hambantota and docking of Chinese warships there.

The sooner India has 'control' of lands in its neighborhood, the better it will be strategically. The sooner it is done, the better. Else the cost of protecting the country will increase disproportionately. We have seen this with the amount of spending on defense to contain Terroristan. We now talk of a 2 front or 2 1/2 front war situation. If the Chinese lap up countries in our backyard, we will be in a cycle of weak-kneed, meek protestation and whining about 'string of pearls' and excessive defense spending.

Patel incorporated all those princely states, including Goa and Hyderabad into the union. Else, just imagine the nightmarish scenario we would have had. India should have its own version of 'nine-dash line'/ 'string of pearls' etc. in its backyard. Also, it is high time to stop playing defense and adopt a more offensive posture. Take the fight to their doorstep, rather than them coming and causing a problem in your backyard.

We have seen successful integration of West and East Germany. The USA/ UK and France have territories far-far away from their mainlands and are able to project power when needed.

It is high time we stopped this nonsense of 'Gandugiri' and 'we have never invaded any country' narratives. Playing defense resulted in the Islamic barbarians invading India and establishing Islamic states.

chetak wrote:....
we already have defence forces covering the cheeni hambanthota port, all safe and very close by on the Indian mainland.

How much closer do you want or need to get and for what..........

The IN can blockade hambanthota at will and make sure that all commercial traffic is diverted away from the colombo port which is a major money spinner for the SLs.
If, by any chance, circumstances arise for India to enforce a blockade on hambanthota, it is almost certain that India will also squeeze the cheeni testimonials in the straits of malacca.

...

Kati wrote:Why not SLankans are not being instigated against the Cheenis holding their land?
How come thousands of the Cheenis working there are not running scared?

Manish_P wrote:

chetak wrote:....
we already have defence forces covering the cheeni hambanthota port, all safe and very close by on the Indian mainland.

How much closer do you want or need to get and for what..........

The IN can blockade hambanthota at will and make sure that all commercial traffic is diverted away from the colombo port which is a major money spinner for the SLs.
If, by any chance, circumstances arise for India to enforce a blockade on hambanthota, it is almost certain that India will also squeeze the cheeni testimonials in the straits of malacca.

...

Chetak sir, It is not a question of being 'close'.. it is a question of being 'upon'. There is a big difference - one which cannot be solved by just long range artillery or missiles or ICBMs.. If that was the case the powers mentioned by RCase would not be squatting on territories thousands of miles away from their Mainland. India of ancient times was close/right next to Iran. Now it is not. India of more recent times was close/touched Afghanistan. Now it does not.

it's best that we maintain a close vigil on cheeni assets in SL and position from the Indian mainland as and when required

SL will charge us huge money in the 3-500 million$ range, at the very minimum, if not more, for basing our forces in their territory, if indeed they allow us to do so at all.

chetak wrote:..
Take it for granted that, come what may, the cheeni will not vacate hambantota port and other assets that they have control over in SL unless force is used and which country will use force to push out the cheenis and to help out SL.
...
so when we have no way to vacate the hans from SL, the next best thing is a military base and offensive military assets very close by which is the Indian mainland
..

Cyrano wrote:... I like the idea of a military base on SL, will help us better monitor ME to SE-Asia shipping lines, look farther into Indian Ocean all the way to Diego Garcia, Djibouti, Seychelles, Maldives, Madagascar, Mauritius, La Réunion. Will effectively neuter Colombo Port City and Hambantotta, and bring SL under our security umbrella.
...

Manish_P wrote:

Cyrano wrote:... I like the idea of a military base on SL, will help us better monitor ME to SE-Asia shipping lines, look farther into Indian Ocean all the way to Diego Garcia, Djibouti, Seychelles, Maldives, Madagascar, Mauritius, La Réunion. Will effectively neuter Colombo Port City and Hambantotta, and bring SL under our security umbrella.
...

+1

Heck in addition to the millitary base, we can offer to build a huge rest & relaxation complex. Give our hardy jawans, especially those coming off duty from siachen, a nice sunny holiday on those sri lankan beaches.. right next to the sweating Cheeni toy soldiers

(Bloomberg) -- Over the past few years, the U.S. has accused China of using “debt diplomacy” to make developing nations across the world more dependent on Beijing.

Yet the cases of Sri Lanka and Pakistan -- both friends of China facing dire financial situations as inflation soars -- show that President Xi Jinping’s government is becoming more reluctant to pull out the checkbook. China still hasn’t made good on a pledge to re-issue loans totaling $4 billion that Pakistan repaid in late March, and it hasn’t responded to Sri Lanka’s pleas for $2.5 billion in credit support.

While China has pledged to help both countries, the more cautious approach reflects both a refining of Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as well as a hesitancy to be seen interfering in messy domestic political situations. Pakistan got a new prime minister on Monday after parliament booted out former cricket star Imran Khan, and Sri Lanka’s leader is facing pressure from protesters to step down.

“Beijing has for the past couple of years been rethinking its external lending because their banks realized they were carrying a lot of debt with countries whose prospects of paying back were quite limited,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University. “This came on top of a tightening economic situation at home which also required a lot of spending, so there was less appetite to just throw money around wantonly.”

China is currently facing its own economic troubles, with lockdowns to contain the country’s worst Covid outbreak since early 2020 shutting down the technology and financial hubs of Shanghai and Shenzhen. Premier Li Keqiang on Monday told local authorities they should “add a sense of urgency” when implementing policies as analysts warn the official growth target of a 5.5% is now in jeopardy.

China has become the world’s largest government creditor over the past decade, with its state-owned policy banks lending more to developing countries than the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank in some recent years. The opacity around the terms and scale of some of that lending has been criticized, especially as the pandemic exacerbates debt problems in poorer countries.

Sri Lanka’s top diplomat in Beijing this week said he was “very confident” that China will come through with credit support, including $1 billion for the country to repay existing Chinese loans due in July. In an interview with Bloomberg, Ambassador Palitha Kohona said the process often takes months and he didn’t see any delay.

“Given the current circumstances, there aren’t that many countries that can step out to the pitch and do something,” he said. “China is one of those countries that can do something very quickly.”

Still, China’s role in helping to resolve ongoing crises in South Asia may be limited despite its status as a major creditor. A Shanghai-based scholar who researches China’s overseas lending said new credit lines are harder to approve as authorities emphasize risk management at financial institutions including policy banks. The scholar asked not to be named due to rules for speaking with the media.

‘Small But Beautiful’

Xi highlighted the importance of a more cautious approach at a high-level Belt and Road symposium in November. “It is necessary to implement risk prevention and control systems,” Xi said. He called on participants to make “small but beautiful” projects a priority for foreign cooperation and “avoid dangerous and chaotic places.”

Earlier this month, Jin Liqun, president of the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, encouraged Sri Lanka to turn to the IMF for help in a meeting with Kohona.

China’s development banks are acting to preserve returns and it “would be difficult for them to easily accede to Sri Lanka’s requests for deferrals,” said Matthew Mingey, a senior analyst at Rhodium Group’s China Macro & Policy team who researches economic diplomacy.

‘Sinking Ships’

“Credit conditions back in China aren’t making things any easier for them,” he added. “Ultimately, Sri Lanka needs the IMF.”

Sri Lanka said Tuesday it would expedite talks with the IMF after it halted payments on foreign debt to preserve dollars for essential food and fuel imports. Pakistan’s new government also plans to work with the IMF to stabilize the economy, according to Miftah Ismail, a former finance minister and a senior ruling party leader.

China’s ability to assist either country with a balance-of-payments crisis is limited, particularly as Beijing’s financial assistance is almost always tied to specific projects, said Muttukrishna Sarvananthan, principle researcher at the Point Pedro Institute of Development in Sri Lanka. China’s policy of non-interference in internal affairs prevents it from offering the type of advice needed for countries to emerge out of a financial crisis, he added.

“Even the IMF appears to be moving very slowly -- if not abandoning -- the requests of both Pakistan and Sri Lanka for their assistance,” Sarvananthan said. “Which sane bilateral donor country or international financial institution would pour money into sinking ships in both Pakistan and Sri Lanka.”

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI, April 13 (Reuters) - India is willing to commit up to another $2 billion in financial assistance to Sri Lanka while also supporting the island nation with food and fuel, five sources told Reuters, as New Delhi tries to regain ground lost to China in recent years..............


............."We are definitely looking to help them out and are willing to offer more swap lines and loans," said an Indian source aware of various discussions with Sri Lanka.

A senior government source in New Delhi said Sri Lanka's warning on Tuesday of defaulting on debt payments was a worry, but that "we can still give them up to $2 billion in swaps and support". read more

Another source familiar with Sri Lanka's thinking said it was seeking India's help to roll over some $2 billion in dues, such as those owed to the South Asia-focussed Asian Clearing Union. The source said the response had been positive from India...............

.......India has so far committed $1.9 billion to Sri Lanka in loans, credit lines and currency swaps. Sri Lanka has also sought another $500 million credit line for fuel.

China has extended a $1.3 billion syndicated loan and a $1.5 billion-yuan denominated swap, while negotiations are ongoing for more loans and credit lines.

One of the sources said New Delhi was keen for its southern neighbour to cut its reliance on China. Sri Lanka has an outstanding debt of about $3.5 billion with China - or 10.8% of the island's total - and Beijing has also built ports and roads in the country.

ldev wrote:Is India getting into an ill advised bidding war with China???

India open to additional $2 bln aid for Sri Lanka with eye on China - sources

Tuan wrote: In other words, India needs to take some bold decisions by conducting a cost-benefit analysis by comparing the projected or estimated costs and benefits (or opportunities) associated with annexing or integrating SL to determine whether it makes sense from a strategic and economic perspective. That is, we need to ponder why Ukraine is matter the most to Russians, Taiwan is to the Chinese, Cuba is to the Americans and Sri Lanka is to the Indians.

RCase wrote:Nepal needs a similar integration / M&A plan like SL. Timing is also right. Will decrease our need for insulin (armed forces expenditure) due to Sugalland.

RCase wrote:

Tuan wrote: In other words, India needs to take some bold decisions by conducting a cost-benefit analysis by comparing the projected or estimated costs and benefits (or opportunities) associated with annexing or integrating SL to determine whether it makes sense from a strategic and economic perspective. That is, we need to ponder why Ukraine is matter the most to Russians, Taiwan is to the Chinese, Cuba is to the Americans and Sri Lanka is to the Indians.

If a corporate M&A approach is taken, I would be in favor of integration.

Benefits:
- Strategic presence and control of IOR, especially in conjunction with A&N islands
- Huge opportunity for trans-shipment and cargo handling
- Will not have to incur additional costs in future to deploy army and airforce to counter adversaries in the south
- Increased Navy muscle and reconnaissance
- Tourism from mainland, including cruise liners will increase GDP
- Cultural tourism and pilgrimage circuit
- Possibility of rail and road links between island and mainland for increased trade.
- Better educational and employment opportunities for SL folks
- Better exploitation of natural resources
- Investment and development of SL by India companies. Don't have to take crippling debt. Heck, our business guys are adept at greasing the skids for the politicians, Hence the SL politicos will still make their buck.
- Eliminates Paki threat from using SL
- Eliminates Chini mischief from the south
- Probably might help ISRO rocket launches.
- Cultural and linguistic similarities as well as existing family and tourism ties


Integration Issues:
- SL has a population of about 21M. This would put them around 24th in state wise population of India. Very similar to the population of Nagaland. (Nepal with a population of 29M is also in the similar pole position, roughly equivalent to Meghalaya)
- Sinhala population is about 75%. Rest are Tamils and other minorities. Yes, a percent of the Sinhala population may be anti-India. That demographic will always be there. We even have anti-India folks (BIF) living in India and still manage to forge ahead.
- India has a demonstrated ability of integrating over 500 princely states into a union. With present federal setup, states have autonomy and maintain their linguistic and cultural heritage. The SL politicos can be local satraps like the TMC/ DMK/ AIDMK/ NCP etc.
- SL Tamils and Eelam - this ship has already sailed. The Tamils were discriminated by the Sinhalese (ala TSP treating its minorities). There are no delusions either on mainland or on the island for a breakaway Tamil 'country'. I would posit that the SL Tamils with familial ties to mainland would be supportive of integration as their prospects for better rights and access would be met in the Indian constitution.
- External debt - We tell the Chinis to take a haircut. Happens all the time with M&A. Their legal paper in Chinese is not worth the paper it is printed on. We need to remind them of our 'Akhand Bharat policy' that they need to respect. There is already precedence set by the Chinis of not recognizing international arbitration.

Timing:
- The West is busy dealing with taking care of 'Blue eyed, Blond' folks just like them. That will be their priority
- Cheen is busy battling Covid in Shanghai and eyeing Taiwan, while being wary of Unkil, AUKUS etc.
- Rus just green lighted integration of Crimea and parts of Ukraine. Donetsk, Luhansk and pretty soon the eastern part of Ukr will be fait accompli. Also they have been able to expose the toothlessness of the west.
- SL economy is up $h,t creek, with no paddle. Even if they get an IMF bailout, it will implode.

RCase wrote:Nepal needs a similar integration / M&A plan like SL. Timing is also right. Will decrease our need for insulin (armed forces expenditure) due to Sugalland.