Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 26 Mar 2014 19:54

English language MSM may sway the brain dead urbanites but I think everyone has seen them for the scum they really are and as such I don't think they can even swing their balls let alone votes.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 26 Mar 2014 19:59

Sanjay, let me give you a wisdom (FWIW). Many other experts have discounted it (or disagreed, including some top honchos from a particular party), I believe the MSM causes in each election some 5% vote swing against BJP. The propaganda does not start during election, it has always been there, since the day of Macaulay or Bairam Khan (when he banned Sanskrit). Their constant negative painting of Indic values/culture/religion leads to at least 5% -v3 swing (not to say religious conversion etc), it also confuses at least a good % to sit at home (the MSM dishes out two potent opium of our time cricket and movies). In all they do that damage. That is what was the case in 2004 and 2009 (2009, Mumbai siege was turned into all of political parties are bad), in this election, the swing in favor of BJP is high so that this -5% may not matter, also the credibility of media is low, so the swing itself is not high as -5%.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Mar 2014 20:02

NaMoKerala ‏@NaMoKerala 4m
Shashi Tharoor running away while his goons beat up civilians asking genuine questions. Video: Link #JusticeForSunanda

This is a great video, which makes Indian Elections the greatest human activity on Planet Earth.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 26 Mar 2014 20:03

link?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 26 Mar 2014 20:13

19:31 LIVE! Ready to forgive Cong for a secular govt: Karunanidhi:

DMK supremo and former Tamil Nadu chief minister M Karunanidhi has said that his party is ready to forgive the Congress and enter into a post-poll alliance with the latter in case they approach them, for the sake of a secular government at the Centre.

The DMK was an active part of both UPA I and II governments, until differences cropped over the 2G scam when its senior leaders -- A Raja and Kanimozhi -- were jailed in the case.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 26 Mar 2014 20:18

thx!!
Did not understand much except ki Shashi taroor ki chaddi gili ho gayee!!

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 26 Mar 2014 20:27

Another question, what was the crowd like in Bulandshar UP ? Any photographs ?

disha · Post by **disha** » 26 Mar 2014 20:33

Sanjay wrote:Singha that brings about a question - how influential is the MSM in swinging votes ? I mean just as an outsider, they worked wonders for AAP in Delhi but then again AAP had a lot of ground workers there. How will thing work in UP for example ?

For the bolded part, ZERO. Check out Guj./Raj/MP elections.

Delhi was a different case where anti-Congress vote went to AAP and partly thanks to BJP's own infighting. So extending Delhi to UP is way out of mark.

Other question, how big was AAP's Varanasi crowd really ? Compared to say NaMo's ?

In the ratio of 1:20

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Mar 2014 20:33

TV was careful to focus close and not show any imagery of the audience.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDbJVMJPi00

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Mar 2014 20:33

fanne wrote:thx!!
Did not understand much except ki Shashi taroor ki chaddi gili ho gayee!!

I understood 2 things onlee: Sunanda and Pakistan!

and that is enough for me to call it a great video!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Mar 2014 20:34

Sanjay wrote:Glad for those assessments. What concerns me is what cost the BJP 2004 - overconfidence and inadequate ground work. AAP is a real threat to the BJP and momentum seems to be slipping somewhat. At least that is what the MSM says. I hope it is different on the ground.

Sanjay, There are many parallels to Kejriwal and Saindhava in the Mahabharat. Both were creations of their fathers: Vridhakshtra and the media, both were invincible for one day (Delhi Elections, andd only when NaMo wasn't allowed by D4 & LKA squabbles). Now he is fighting NaMo (modern day Arjuna) in Kashi the abode of Shiva. He will get Pasupataed (Shiva's Astra) and take out this media fathers (discredited for openly supporting a loser) at same time just as Saindhava took out his father.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 26 Mar 2014 20:36

In the ratio of 1:20[/quote]

Disha,

I hope you mean that ratio in favour of NaMo !

Your points are all completely valid. However, not being there, I am trying to get a feel for what is happening on the ground.

Ramana,
Again, point taken. My concern is based on my own time doing election work. Turnout, ground work and mobilization are the keys to victory. Momentum and rallies are very good things but the ground work has to be sound. I have seen momentum and rallies squandered and defeat snatched from the jaws of victory by shoddy ground work and a collapse of election day machinery and complacency.

The fear I have is not necessarily based on anything but concern that the BJP seemed to be taking things for granted. Can anyone give me an idea as to how ground level mobilization is going ?

One would also suppose that small town and rural India are harder to keep a pulse on.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Mar 2014 20:38

krishnan wrote:
19:31 LIVE! Ready to forgive Cong for a secular govt: Karunanidhi:

DMK supremo and former Tamil Nadu chief minister M Karunanidhi has said that his party is ready to forgive the Congress and enter into a post-poll alliance with the latter in case they approach them, for the sake of a secular government at the Centre.

The DMK was an active part of both UPA I and II governments, until differences cropped over the 2G scam when its senior leaders -- A Raja and Kanimozhi -- were jailed in the case.

clutching at straws in the hope of keeping his fading empire intact just a little longer ... "all sickular forces must come together" - that time honoured motto of the biggest criminals in india

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Mar 2014 20:41

Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 1h
DMK ready to support Congress. Though Cong unfaithful, will forgive them for a secular govt, says Karunanidhi.

Dar gaya! Scared!

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 26 Mar 2014 20:45

Sanjay wrote:
disha wrote:
In the ratio of 1:20
I hope you mean that ratio in favour of NaMo !

Don't ask stupid kwoshan bliss.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 26 Mar 2014 20:52

DMK might go the congress way , lots of regional parties and raise of captain and BJP will impact them

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 26 Mar 2014 21:06

[quote="Chandragupta"][quote="Sanjay"][quote="disha"]

In the ratio of 1:20

I hope you mean that ratio in favour of NaMo !

Don't ask stupid kwoshan bliss.

I can't take another 2004 experience !!!!!!

Maybe new slogan - Vote AAP, get PAAP ?

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 26 Mar 2014 21:12

RajeshA wrote:Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 1h
DMK ready to support Congress. Though Cong unfaithful, will forgive them for a secular govt, says Karunanidhi.

Dar gaya! Scared!

MK is just maximising his vote appeal to Muslims. He has been smart enough to say that he will support IF required... He has not said things like - a) BJP is communal, b) he will never support BJP as it is communal...

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Mar 2014 21:35

Malayappan wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 1h
DMK ready to support Congress. Though Cong unfaithful, will forgive them for a secular govt, says Karunanidhi.

Dar gaya! Scared!
MK is just maximising his vote appeal to Muslims. He has been smart enough to say that he will support IF required... He has not said things like - a) BJP is communal, b) he will never support BJP as it is communal...

Question is whether they want to sink in one boat or two!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Mar 2014 21:37

Ansari, who is currently lodged as sarkari "guest" in agra jail is in a upbeat mood.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 26 Mar 2014 21:41

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/karunanidhi-launches-campaign-lashes-out-at-ungrateful-congress/article5835915.ece

he DMK on Wednesday charged the Congress with adopting “vengeful methods” against the Dravidian party and called it an “ungrateful” partner.

Opening an attack probably for the first time against the Congress after the DMK snapped ties in March 2013, party chief M. Karunanidhi accused the Congress of failing to show gratitude towards his party which lent crucial support to the UPA.

Launching his party’s election campaign from Chennai, Mr. Karunanidhi lashed out at his “Congress friends” saying, “They were more inclined to save their government but showed no gratitude.”

Apparently predicting doom for the Congress in the Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu, he said, “They don’t know the meaning of gratitude. That’s why today in Tamil Nadu and elsewhere Congress’ situation is abysmally low.”

“To lead a good life, you have to have gratitude. Congress never realised who gave them a helping hand in the past and gave so many troubles to DMK and its members and they are paying for it now,” Mr. Karunanidhi said.

However, the DMK will support the Congress “if the Congressmen regret and get back to their secular credentials.

“The DMK will support them not in terms of votes, but to change the evils that had gripped them, and is ready to forgive them.”

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 26 Mar 2014 21:42

old man has a habit of hinting different positions at some time or other, so he can choose any position when it comes to it. he will be simultaneously for it and against it.

for ex, they were against FDI, but voted for FDI and are now against FDI but if they come to power, they will again be for FDI.

they are against congress, against communalism, but then say "modi is a good administrator"

, and now "have to keep communal forces at bay"

VinayB · Post by **VinayB** » 26 Mar 2014 21:50

Karan M wrote:
Singha wrote:MMS and Raul seem notably absent from the ether these days....?
and Rajmata is even more elusive...
even diggy raja is not getting airtime for his usual abuse of namo...
manish tiwari is sulking

would love to be a fly on the wall in akbar road office to see whats the congi plan for final phase of campaigning...by now most people have already made up their minds (those who dont vote for drinks n blankets)
Its INC/AAP liberals + tactical voting by minority groups (those that follow diktats) vs BJP at national level.

Wont AAP cut into 'secular' votes more than they cut into BJP vote? I was thinking how the secular parties are not making this complaint (like Harkishen surjeet would have, bless his soul), and just a few days ago ex-delhi-cm's son spoke these words (AAP cutting into secular vote).

Kujli and co have done everything they can to keep away a BJP supporter of 2009 from pushing the broom button - kashmir, overt naxal support, overt wooing of minority vote, brazen unprovoked attack on BJP office etc. One cant blame them for not trying their best there. Those stupid enough to vote for INC in 2009 because of MMS, might continue to be foolish enough to push the broom button and that should hurt INC. BJP's incremental vote is going to be OBC consolidation in Hindi heartland and AAP can do nothing about that (they dont look to be even trying).

Some have a fear that AAP and INC may have a mechanism by which in seats where AAP attracts enough of the 'stupid voters' (like in delhi), INC will transfer its votes into AAP and also the muslim vote. It is possible that in delhi assembly elections, it was done, making INC go down really badly. Now, that is counter-productive (like tail wagging the dog). And not sure how this can be so finely managed at the national level - cant AAP also end up cutting the 'secular vote' in other places like Bangalore and smaller towns where there does not appear to be enough stupid votes?

VinayB · Post by **VinayB** » 26 Mar 2014 21:54

... and I saw a photo of govindacharya with Kujli, and googled and found a recent interview of govindacharya flaunting his access to Kujli. When Kujli says communalism is bigger threat than corruption, why is no secular politician not taunting him for dealing with ex-RSS?
could Kujli be a RSS agent?.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 26 Mar 2014 21:56

No Khujli cant be, but Govindachrya CAN be. Although to be honest, he does not give hope.

But then if he really is still with RSS -- then man, RSS has just beaten Chankya, and nothing can beat PIF this time.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 26 Mar 2014 22:35

Vinay B, This is the whole calculation - If not for AAP, almost all of anti cong vote would have gone to BJP, where BJP and Cong are fighting. But AAP (like PrajaRajyam of AP) is diverting some of that vote to itself. This vote is of two types -1) Ex congi voter (that may or may not have voted cong this time, some may have voted BJP) and 2)new voters - these may have come big time to BJP but are now going to PAAP.
Paap has succeeded in its game, so has Ford Foundation and Cong I establishment (through NAC members like Aruna Roy, Yogender Yadav etc).

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Mar 2014 22:37

disha wrote:
Sanjay wrote:Singha that brings about a question - how influential is the MSM in swinging votes ? I mean just as an outsider, they worked wonders for AAP in Delhi but then again AAP had a lot of ground workers there. How will thing work in UP for example ?
For the bolded part, ZERO. Check out Guj./Raj/MP elections.

Delhi was a different case where anti-Congress vote went to AAP and partly thanks to BJP's own infighting. So extending Delhi to UP is way out of mark.

Other question, how big was AAP's Varanasi crowd really ? Compared to say NaMo's ?
In the ratio of 1:20

1:20 is an understatement, AK has only 2000 - 3000 people if you discount security and AAPtards from delhi who were roped in. Namo's Varanasi rally had 4-5 lakhs. So it is more like 1:200

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 26 Mar 2014 22:54

fanne wrote:Vinay B, This is the whole calculation - If not for AAP, almost all of anti cong vote would have gone to BJP, where BJP and Cong are fighting. But AAP (like PrajaRajyam of AP) is diverting some of that vote to itself. This vote is of two types -1) Ex congi voter (that may or may not have voted cong this time, some may have voted BJP) and 2)new voters - these may have come big time to BJP but are now going to PAAP.
Paap has succeeded in its game, so has Ford Foundation and Cong I establishment (through NAC members like Aruna Roy, Yogender Yadav etc).

As the election goes on into April, the effectiveness of AAP will wear thin due to its leadership missteps. In Delhi, where most people are literate, AAP may not be able to win more than 1-2 seats. I think about half of the ex-congi voters would probably not have for BJP anyway, so the loss to the BJP may be minimal particularly that Modi has galvanized the middle class voter to come out and vote for BJP. The question is, will the other side come out and vote in significant numbers as well?

IMHO, AAP will have some impact in districts of major metro areas in the north and Mumbai.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Mar 2014 22:56

fanne wrote:Vinay B, This is the whole calculation - If not for AAP, almost all of anti cong vote would have gone to BJP, where BJP and Cong are fighting. But AAP (like PrajaRajyam of AP) is diverting some of that vote to itself. This vote is of two types -1) Ex congi voter (that may or may not have voted cong this time, some may have voted BJP) and 2)new voters - these may have come big time to BJP but are now going to PAAP.
Paap has succeeded in its game, so has Ford Foundation and Cong I establishment (through NAC members like Aruna Roy, Yogender Yadav etc).

I disagree with both theories. For all what MSM is trying to potray, outside delhi AAP is a big zero. Yes they will get 2% vote, but you guys want to know where that 2% is coming from. 1.4 (70%) of the 2% is coming from small parties and independents.

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/poll-tracker ... 37-64.html

There are at least 2 other studies that confirm that finding. Their surveys dont surprise me at all. At the time of the survey (early jan when they were at their peak) they had 4% nationwide, delhi included. Now i am sure it would have come down. Be careful when you interpret the numbers. In the survey, when x% say they will vote for AAP, it is x% of those who want AAP to contest, and that is % of those who have heard of it. But anyway the page is self explanatory. And too much water has flown after that survey.

MNS cuts into SS vote, because it is an ideological party, Chiru cut TDP becos he had Kapu vote. What is AAP, it has no fixed ideology (but yet they have some appeal). What is that appeal, anti corruption, but more importantly they appeal to people who like to hit the NOTA button, people who are tired of mainstream parties. Yes there will be some people who may have voted Namo if AAP was not there, there will be some people who may have looked for congress freebies if AAP was not there, but those numbers are minimal.

By and large, they get 70% of their vote from people who are tired of mainstream parties or people who have never voted/never taken interest in politics. If AAP is given a free run and they put their heads to it instead of running around like headless chickens, they can lap up 10% vote by consolidating this scattered vote (every LS seat in India has 15-20% scattered vote) over 5-10 years. It is after that when people look to them as a credible player, they will start denting major parties like BJP/Cong

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 26 Mar 2014 23:21

^^^I agree. Only in the NCR they will have the most impact.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 26 Mar 2014 23:22

There table 2 does not make sense. IBN and NDTV - these two channels number are very suspect, as in not wrong but deliberate lies (different from where AAP is getting its vote, could be right what they are saying, but these channels lie, in fact caught on TV, where PronnoY Roy laughs off his cheating caught innocently bty SHEKHAR gUPTA

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Mar 2014 23:33

fanne wrote:There table 2 does not make sense. IBN and NDTV - these two channels number are very suspect, as in not wrong but deliberate lies (different from where AAP is getting its vote, could be right what they are saying, but these channels lie, in fact caught on TV, where PronnoY Roy laughs off his cheating caught innocently bty SHEKHAR gUPTA

Why does table 2 not make sense. I would not equate IBN's character to csds. CSDS has been and is one of the most reputable survey agencies and one that does not do phone surveys, but rather do ground field surveys.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 Mar 2014 23:35

Sanku wrote:No Khujli cant be, but Govindachrya CAN be. Although to be honest, he does not give hope.

But then if he really is still with RSS -- then man, RSS has just beaten Chankya, and nothing can beat PIF this time.

Govindacharya is a CIA agent planted into Sangh Parivar.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Mar 2014 23:42

Rajasthan Alert:

Some reports that BJP will have a hard time winning Sikar, Jhunjhunu, Ajmer, Alwar and Jodhpur, they will win the remaining 20 easily. Alwar is considered the least risky among these 5. Sikar is considered a gone case (apparently sikar and alwar were 2 seats where baba ramdev's choices were accommodated).

Ajmer is Sachin Pilot's seat, reports on too much money being flooded to retain this seat. BJP actually won all 7 assembly segments in Ajmer and has fielded a pretty good candidate.

Jhunjhunu is a seat that BJP has never ever won (Sisaram Ola's seat)

Sikar is plain gone, Subhash Meharia who was a 3 time BJP MP, was refused the ticket and Baba's guy has been given the ticket. Now Subhash Meharia is contesting as independent and can either win or cause a congress win.

Jodhpur and Alwar, BJP can salvage.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 26 Mar 2014 23:43

Muraliravi,

Has there been another CSDS survery recently?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Mar 2014 23:45

muraliravi, Now that we know CSDS surveys are reliable can we do a Bayesian approach and refine it further?

Rudradev any progress in digesting Nate Silver's book.

May be we can get matrimc and bji to guide the process.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 26 Mar 2014 23:48

^^^You're talking about BRF being psephologists?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 26 Mar 2014 23:49

Govindacharya is too intelligent for his own good and stopped doing good work and jumping into abstract ideas. While Subramaniyan Swamy was also like that, but he did some good anti corruption work and also supported and worked for Hindu cause fpr many years now.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 26 Mar 2014 23:52

Google Iterface with EVM will provide Timely warning For intervition

Google’s new online tools will keep voters in India and Indonesia informed ahead of upcoming polls

Google has launched a series of tools as it seeks to make itself useful to 1 billion Indian and Indonesian voters, who are heading to the polls next month. These tools listed on the respective Elections Hub pages provide easier access to the latest news, videos, and practical details about the coming elections.In India, Google has rolled out a series of Hangouts on Air with India’s political leaders. It is also letting Indians submit an interactive Pledge to Vote on the map and make a customizable video to explain the importance of voting.organizations Perludem and The Asia Foundation are using tools on Google Maps to create a candidate information map that will be updated as the votes are tallied on election day

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 00:03

ramana wrote:muraliravi, Now that we know CSDS surveys are reliable can we do a Bayesian approach and refine it further?

We can surely try. I mean they are reliable in detecting trends, not absolute numbers. They have been wrong in the past, but within ok (not very acceptable sometimes) margins. The problem with refining them with bayesian interface model is the type of additional input we need. Their output is usually voteshare and seat tally by state. Now there is no way to feed an extra input into that, unless we have a whole new set of secondary surveys tracked over time. We can use the trends in these secondary surveys/inputs to refine their trendline. But otherwise, we are restricted to some ground info on a particular seat. Now that can be used to refine their seat tally, but they give huge ranges, like Rajasthan 20-25 seats. So someone can say, BJP is at risk in certain seats and that will fit perfectly fine into their results.

So one approach i see is to use vote share trends from other surveys to get increments/decreases. This can be mapped on their baselines to refine them.