Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 00:04

Mort Walker wrote:Muraliravi,

Has there been another CSDS survery recently?

They will have one starting coming Monday. That will be their final one for this election. Just take their trends and vote shares to some extent, their absolute numbers on seats are not bad, but not great.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Mar 2014 00:08

^^^I understand. The states that I am familiar with, I will draw my own extrapolations and others can too. Could you start something as Ramanaji said? That way we could have a good understanding at least in this dhaaga.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 00:15

Mort Walker wrote:^^^I understand. The states that I am familiar with, I will draw my own extrapolations and others can too. Could you start something as Ramanaji said? That way we could have a good understanding at least in this dhaaga.

Will try sir. Lets see how their survey turns out and how elated or depressed I am after seeing that. I am a bit anxious (that would be the right word) for 2 reasons

1. This survey is being done after seat selection
2. I see the wave tapering a bit (which is expected)

Headwinds: Their lower bound in the previous survey was 193 for BJP (lets take the lower bound value onlee, because surveys will always overestimate BJP simply because of the voter demographic BJP has and the ease with which they get over-represented in surveys despite all tall claims by survey agencies). Now 193 is tantalizingly close to what BJP needs to be comfortable. A bit of wave taper and some candidate blunders (which have indeed occurred) might drop them by a crucial 15-20 seats.

Tailwinds: Delhi/Karnataka are picking up for BJP and I expect that to show up in the survey. In feb survey, the survey was conducted before bihar alliance was sealed. I expect some gains in UP due to Apna Dal alliance.

Hopefully (it is not as simple as many think), the headwinds and the tailwinds balance out.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 27 Mar 2014 00:38

I am apprehensive for the same reasons.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Mar 2014 00:40

I think, in both Bihar and UP the wave has intensified, but ticket blunders have happened all around - to the tune of 15-20 seats.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 27 Mar 2014 00:43

fanne, I am going to be a bit unfair here - how do you see things right now in terms of seats ? I sense the blunders as well. The question is will people vote party or candidate ?

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 27 Mar 2014 00:45

Lok Sabha polls: Bookies 'excited' about AAP prospects

Why are bookies excited? Does this mean EVM magic is on the cards??? AAP has no prospects going by their rallies, yet bookies are "excited" ???

including Varanasi where BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is fighting,

Seriously? Now NaMo's winnability is in doubt???

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Mar 2014 00:46

I am like Murali waiting for some surveys to come out. My input is based on talking to limited number of people back in Desh. Few things I know, which I will not like to reveal here, BJP is doing good (some new process put in place). Most likely in first week of April we will have a more believable guess, but as of now, I see NDA forming govt.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Mar 2014 00:58

I have always kept one ear open for EVM magic, I would like to believe that it does not happen/cannot happen, but cannot be over-ruled.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 01:01

Shonu wrote:Lok Sabha polls: Bookies 'excited' about AAP prospects

Why are bookies excited? Does this mean EVM magic is on the cards??? AAP has no prospects going by their rallies, yet bookies are "excited" ???

including Varanasi where BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is fighting,
Seriously? Now NaMo's winnability is in doubt???

Total plant article. No numbers whatsoever. Let them open the books. Just one week, Mumbai bookies put out numbers, Modi was way too dominating. 24 paise for him to be PM, Raga was Rs. 4.5 and Khujliwal was Rs 500. And TOI plant thinks bookies are betting on AAP in varanasi. People with money dont like to lose, they play it cool. TOI can lie through its teeth, but take it from me, no sensible bookie will book a paisa on AAP in varanasi.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 01:03

I'll stick my neck out and put this prediction from my side. Lets see if I am even close to the actual results

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 27 Mar 2014 01:06

^^

So that NDA 219 vs UPA3 153+97 (plus some spares from remaining 74).

Its game over for NDA even before it begun, going by this score.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Mar 2014 01:11

Muraliravi,

How did you come up with BJP 184?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 27 Mar 2014 01:14

SRoy wrote:^^

So that NDA 219 vs UPA3 153+97 (plus some spares from remaining 74).

Its game over for NDA even before it begun, going by this score.

Yep. If BJP is 193, then we don't need to even bother. Modi can go home now itself.

The MAFIA,Sushie aunty,CIA will be back on track again

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 01:15

SRoy wrote:^^

So that NDA 219 vs UPA3 153+97 (plus some spares from remaining 74).

Its game over for NDA even before it begun, going by this score.

Why 97 to the UPA3, admk/bjd will not support upa. your calc is wrong.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 27 Mar 2014 01:15

Game over ? I don't think so. It is in line with what has been predicted and is well within the range we've seen. The 97 aren't going to go to the UPA in a block. Lots of horsey trading ! I can see at least 36 that can be persuaded - AIADMK and TDP.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 27 Mar 2014 01:16

This weekend a TV episode of satyameva jayate by Bollywood actor amir Khan dude.

Advertisement openly talks of season of elections and people thinking about whom to vote and then says "aap sabhi jaan jaayenge"!!

Hope EC takes notice if that crosses any limit.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Mar 2014 01:16

In 1999, the BJP had 185.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 27 Mar 2014 01:19

muraliravi wrote:
SRoy wrote:^^

So that NDA 219 vs UPA3 153+97 (plus some spares from remaining 74).

Its game over for NDA even before it begun, going by this score.
Why 97 to the UPA3, admk/bjd will not support upa. your calc is wrong.

They will, if asked to make a secular vs communal choice.

The 3rd front and non-aligned, given a choice will align with INC either as direct partners or as outside supporters. Get real.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Mar 2014 01:20

Sanjay wrote:Game over ? I don't think so. It is in line with what has been predicted and is well within the range we've seen. The 97 aren't going to go to the UPA in a block. Lots of horsey trading ! I can see at least 36 that can be persuaded - AIADMK and TDP.

Absolutely, the cost will be Rs. 15 cr per seat. Congress is dumping money in to holding the seats it has and won't have the resources to gather up Rs. 500+ cr. within a few days after results are declared.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 27 Mar 2014 01:22

What is worrying is that a minor downward trend in tallies and people are prepared to surrender. Voting hasn't started yet and maybe things can be done to do better.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Mar 2014 01:23

This number has few built in assumption - NDA not doing great in Bihar (not more than 20 seats) etc etc. Lets wait for one more week, we will know.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 27 Mar 2014 01:24

If muraliravi's predictions are close to the reality, it is apparent that the NDA will need the support of BJD, ADMK and TDP to have any hope. TDP may be the easiest to convince. The other two are the problem. Jaya will demand an arm and a leg (in terms of ministerial berths) and may sabotage the govt. even after that. I don't know what Naveen Patnaik will do. As of now BJD joining NDA even post-polls looks unlikely.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Mar 2014 01:26

>> Bihar Observers

Lal Muni Chaubey has left BJP and is going to stand as candidate from Buxar, Bihar where the BJP candidate is Ashwini Chaubey.

Is he still a big force? Can he spoil the chances of Ashwani Chaubey?

He is doing a Jaswant Singh in Bihar. I don't know how many more are doing the rebellion act.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Mar 2014 01:27

This is sad. Lets wait for some ground report.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Mar 2014 01:28

Right before Kargil in 1999 Jaya pulled down the Vajpayee government. She would do the same again this time.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 27 Mar 2014 01:29

Its not surrender. Being prepared for worst case scenario.
Also, the honest appraisal that masses at large aren't aware of the larger issues at play. One slight miss by BJP they go back to old masters.

Why is it that a nationalistic outfit needs a wave to win, while assorted ruffians retain their hold so easily?

In this very forum, BRF members (who we assume are well versed with strategic issues) have confessed to have fallen prey to AAP? What about ignorant types?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 27 Mar 2014 01:29

A Pakistani view of the Indian elections

Look at how a Paki thinks. Exactly the way AK-49 thinks.

Unstable Govt and Modi will fall.

Only time will tell whether it was a wise move by the BJP to announce Modi's candidature before the polls. Some moderate voters might stay away from the BJP because of Modi's extreme views, particularly his dubious role in Gujarat's 2002 anti-Muslim riots. But Modi happens to be the only BJP choice, based largely on his development model in Gujarat, who has the potential to deliver results. In any case, polls show an upward graph for the BJP ever since Modi became a candidate for PM. CNN-IBN in a poll conducted jointly with The Hindu in July 2013, predicted 149 to 157 seats in a House of 543 for the United Progressive Alliance led by the Congress party. And the polls gave 172 to 180 seats to the National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP, which includes Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra.

The same media group in a poll conducted in February 2014, reduced the UPA seats between 119 and 139 (INC 94-110) and increased prediction for the NDA seats between 212 to 232 (BJP 193-213). Another media group, Times Now-India Today also reduced its polls results for UPA in July 2013 to 134 seats (INC 119) to 101 seats (INC 89) in February 2014 while increased the tally of NDA to 156 seats (BJP 131) to 227 seats (BJP 202) in the same polls.

But then Indian pollsters and media pundits have a history of blundering predictions. The biggest upset happened in 2004 when most experts could not see Vajpayee's 'India Shining' campaign crumbling to a crushing defeat. Again, most experts failed to predict Manmohan Singh's re-election as the prime minister in 2009, the only one to achieve the feat after Jawaharlal Nehru, with the Congress adding a whopping 80 more seats to its previous tally.

Whatever their worth, most polls predict the BJP winning between 170 and 210 seats (NDA 190-230). The large window of 40 seats is because of the potential spoiler, Aam Aadmi Party led by Arvind Kejriwal.

For the BJP, bagging 200 plus seats is easier said than done. The BJP stalwarts see a 'Modi wave' that will carry the only PM candidate into power. Not so easy, say his opponents. "Why should he run from two seats if he was so sure about his wave," said journalist B Muralidhar Reddy of The Hindu.

Pakis' best friends are traitors like NDTV,Hindu,IBN,AAP... any one who works for destruction of India from inside is loved by Pakis and vice versa.

The 200-plus figure becomes more difficult as the BJP is contesting only 350 seats out of 543. It will have to milk the north India cow belt much more vigorously, particularly in Uttar Pradesh (80 seats) and Bihar (40 seats). One reason for Modi's decision to contest from Varanasi is that he wants to garner support in East UP and Bihar. The BJP target of 70 seats out of 120 in UP and Bihar sounds ambitious as it got only 22 in 2009 (UP 10, Bihar 12).

But even if the BJP-led NDA gets the highest number of 230 seats predicted by some polls, it will be daunting for Namo to make his government. The question remains that how will he get the remaining 42 seats required for the magical number of 272 to make it to lead the government. Unlike Vajpayee, Namo remains politically isolated. He is a virtual pariah for the Samajwadi Party, the Left parties and for the Janata Dal-United of Nitish Kumar, who sees himself as a prime ministerial candidate. Among them, we are talking about 80 to 100 seats. Another 100 seats are monopolised by the triumvirate of strong Indian women --Tamil Nadu's J Jayalalithaa, West Bengal's Mamata Banerjee and UP's Mayawati.

What a surprise!
FINAL HOPE of PAKI rabid hater and AK is same! WOW!

Nutshell: Even if Namo crosses all these difficult bridges and makes his government, it will still be, at best, a fragile government.

Remember how J Jayalalithaa brought the Vajpayee government in 1998 by just one vote. Namo, Namo but not yet.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 27 Mar 2014 01:57

Just for the record - even the most optimistic opinion polls I think put the NDA at 232. In any event 40 more were needed.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 02:02

SRoy wrote: They will, if asked to make a secular vs communal choice.

The 3rd front and non-aligned, given a choice will align with INC either as direct partners or as outside supporters. Get real.

Hmm, I can ask you to do the same, Jaya will not ever support UPA. Patnaik will sit out but will not support UPA.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 02:03

Sanjay wrote:Game over ? I don't think so. It is in line with what has been predicted and is well within the range we've seen. The 97 aren't going to go to the UPA in a block. Lots of horsey trading ! I can see at least 36 that can be persuaded - AIADMK and TDP.

TDP supporting UPA, please sir get real

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 27 Mar 2014 02:04

Baap re baap,

BRF mein itna dhoti shivering, chill guys. Stop this sushma theory, name one ally who will not support Namo for PM, but will be ready to support Sushma (barring JDU). Do you really think Namo cannot break BJP after elections if they try that kind of game.

184 is a good number for BJP. What do you expect, 230??? If they really end up with 180+ I will be happy. Here is how the govt will be formed.

So they will need 23 more. They can get that from ADMK or DMK+BJD, or ADMK+BJD. They can break RJD/JDU and get from DMK or NCP, Bahut saare ways hai, take a cool pill. The president has to call BJP onlee first.

Mort Walker Sir,

I can put the breakdown of how i arrived at seats for each party, will become too long a post. Lets wait anyway for csds first. Then I will put that out.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 27 Mar 2014 02:11

muraliravi wrote:
Sanjay wrote:Game over ? I don't think so. It is in line with what has been predicted and is well within the range we've seen. The 97 aren't going to go to the UPA in a block. Lots of horsey trading ! I can see at least 36 that can be persuaded - AIADMK and TDP.
TDP supporting UPA, please sir get real

No - I meant TDP supporting NDA - exact opposite. If 219 and Madam and TDP can be persuaded - 255. What I would also ask is if your suggested total of 184 includes losses from candidate selection as may occur ?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Mar 2014 02:37

I don't think Congress will get 115. They will get between 90-100. Those other seats, some will go to BJP or allies, and others to regional parties.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 27 Mar 2014 02:55

Ejjatly. That's the big thing that stood out for me is Con getting 115. They will be lucky to get past 100 even 80. KT is back with BSY and Sriramulu, TDP is getting there, NaMo needs to make right noises about SA package, UP and Bihar are strong with Paswan and ram kirp Yadav and hats of UP. Will offset minor set backs of Ss in MH, Punjab and Haryana. Lets not discount Modi wave and Cong anti incumbency.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Mar 2014 03:16

NDA's old allies Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Shiv Sena (SS) are the ones which seem to be doing less than well. SAD may not win more than 6/10 and Shiv Sena may not win more than 10/20.

It would be strike rate much lower than that of BJP's.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 27 Mar 2014 03:20

RajeshA wrote:NDA's old allies Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Shiv Sena (SS) are the ones which seem to be doing less than well. SAD may not win more than 6/10 and Shiv Sena may not win more than 10/20.

It would be strike rate much lower than that of BJP's.

Well not really. BJP is contesting ~350 seats right? So if they win ~184 (per muraliravi's calculations), that is a strike rate of a little over 50%.

disha · Post by **disha** » 27 Mar 2014 03:22

muraliravi wrote:Baap re baap,

BRF mein itna dhoti shivering, chill guys. Stop this sushma theory, name one ally who will not support Namo for PM, but will be ready to support Sushma (barring JDU). Do you really think Namo cannot break BJP after elections if they try that kind of game.

+1 to that.

Here are my observations:

INC getting 115 is overly optimistic for INC. Even taking candidate selection into account, it will be interesting to see where INC will win 115 and how many of that can go into BJP's kitty?

My take, 20 of the above will go to BJP's kitty.

On the other hand, BJP getting 184 is a good, but I was thinking more in lines with 175-180. I will stick with your number. And bring down my number on INC->BJP from 15 (would really like to know where INC is getting 115 from?)

Hence BJP will be in ballpark of 199. My own assessment looking at states is coming to between 210-230 and I am working hard to be not much optimistic! So can live with 199.

My serious question is with Sapa and Baspa seats in UP. 15 for Sapa is not doable. Traditional voters of Sapa (that is muslim-yadav) will either sit away the election or vote strategically. Some gains to be accrued by CongI, but then CongIs have lost the hindu vote completely.

Given that, I will be surprised if Sapa even makes it 15. Same goes for Baspa. Except in case of Baspa it is a different grouping, it will be interesting to see them vote along caste lines in national elections when the very caste lines are breaking apart.

Hazarding a seat guess is always difficult, but for Sapa I am expecting 9-12., but for Baspa, it is going to be 12-16. On optimistic scale that is 14 additional seats in play.

disha · Post by **disha** » 27 Mar 2014 03:52

^^ Also AAP you gave 3. AAP is going to be zero. A big zero., even Gul Panag is a wasted vote and that is the only high profile entity. Yogendra Yadav may squeak through, but given Kejriwal's antiques and the latest broadside from Modi., AAP's ship has sunk.

member_26255 · Post by **member_26255** » 27 Mar 2014 04:05

disha wrote:^^ Also AAP you gave 3. AAP is going to be zero. A big zero., even Gul Panag is a wasted vote and that is the only high profile entity. Yogendra Yadav may squeak through, but given Kejriwal's antiques and the latest broadside from Modi., AAP's ship has sunk.

http://khabar.ndtv.com/video/show/news/314701

If this video by undie tv is anything to go by, Yogi Yadav won't be much of a challenge to Rao Inderjit Singh in Gurgaon.

Here are the results for 2009 LS for Gurgaon.

http://electionaffairs.com/results/cons ... me=Haryana