2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

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chaanakya
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

GuruPrabhu wrote:
vina wrote: Now the Fyzzics and Engineering in this thread has come down to the Chaudury Devi Lal levels. So explaining all this to folks who nod sagely is beyond hope. It is futile. So just browse once in a while and snigger at all the wisdom thrown about and then once in a while point to the absurdity of it all! :lol: :lol:
That is sage advice, indeed. The most impressive along these lines is that the military reactors are safe and saintly.

And this is your first comments in Physics forum.
GuruPrabhu wrote:
rsingh wrote:When light takes 3 billion years to reach to us it means source is an event that occurred some where in space 3 billion years ago. In fact it is light from past and we are observing past events only. Going on this do we have a particular direction in space from where light from big bang is suppose to come?
Yes, all big bang comes from direction of Islamabad. But this theorem is limited to light since 7th century AD. Billion year stuff is not Halaal.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

Amber Garu Please take my sincere apology for whatever I may have written and probably hurt your sentiments. I may not agree with your views or might agree but I had no right to say anything , even remotely, to hurt you or any other posters.

I browsed Physics forum and indeed found your knowledge exceptional, not that you need my certificate. I really feel ashamed of myself to have reacted in bad manners. Can't undo that but do accept my apology.


My views on Radiation from Nuclear plant accident has not changed. btw I have been told that Science is ethics neutral. Good or bad comes into play only in relation to living beings esp humans.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by GuruPrabhu »

LOL. Now, even Baki jokes are being critiqued. Watch out BENIS!

[serious answer to rsingh: your premise is absurd. expansion of the universe is isotropic, so all 3 billion year old photons come from all directions]
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

Yes , one should have seen the response/explanation of Bade next to it to really understand what a joke would look like in Physics thread. That is OT here. Any way, You can post your reply , even belatedly, in that thread. Thanks .
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by GuruPrabhu »

uh oh, the joke police is offended. Saar, please count the number of smilies you post before criticizing others. What is the need to post those exactly? Are you laughing at a joke? Or, are you laughing at yourself? Or. are you laughing at someone else? What is the need to laugh so much if you are against jokes?
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

Aftershock batters nuclear plants
Nuclear power plants and related facilities in the coastal areas of northeastern Japan were forced to rely on emergency power after their electricity was cut off in Thursday night's quake.

Operations have been suspended at all nuclear power plants from Aomori to Ibaraki prefectures since the March 11th earthquake and tsunami. But electricity is still crucial to keep their cooling systems operating.

Japan's nuclear agency says all external power lines at Higashidori nuclear power plant in Aomori Prefecture were knocked out in Thursday's quake. The plant switched to emergency diesel power generators for some hours, but power was later restored.

The quake shut down 3 of the 4 external power lines at Onagawa nuclear power plant in Miyagi Prefecture. It is still operating on the one remaining power line.

The Onagawa plant also suffered water leaks at 8 locations, including water that spilled from spent fuel storage pools at each of its 3 reactors. A device to control pressure inside a turbine building was also damaged.

In addition, the quake disabled all external power lines at a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Aomori Prefecture. The cooling systems here are still running on emergency diesel power.
Friday, April 08, 2011 14:01 +0900 (JST)
sanjaykumar
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by sanjaykumar »

Can someone clean up the moronic one upmanship on this thread? Those with the least to say talk the most.
Amber G.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

GuruPrabhu wrote:
vina wrote: Now the Fyzzics and Engineering in this thread has come down to the Chaudury Devi Lal levels. So explaining all this to folks who nod sagely is beyond hope. It is futile. So just browse once in a while and snigger at all the wisdom thrown about and then once in a while point to the absurdity of it all! :lol: :lol:
That is sage advice, indeed. The most impressive along these lines is that the military reactors are safe and saintly.
GuruPrabhu, Vina et all - It would be funny if it would not be so sad. Rep Markey is in the news because he forced distribution of KI tablets to US citizen (via US embassy) even if they are 100 miles away from Fukushima.

What is more, even 26/11 is stark reminder and for him:
Paints Grim Picture of Possible Nuclear Attack
"Following the deadly terrorist attacks in India last week, the Commission's warnings underscore the need to intensify our efforts to stop the spread of nuclear and biological materials. I look forward to continuing to work on these pressing issue
The above is from Markey's official site. Please do read the whole part. Just like Chaanakya, and Sanku he keeps doing what he does. Throw insults on anyone who tries to be sensible. It is shameful, that Sanku and Chaanakya are becoming a voice for people like him here in brf.

What a shame. Indeed.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

More bannana equivalent dose, fourth root of time etc type article from MITNSE..
(Some of this has been in brf before, but this is a nice writeup, so posting in full) ({..} comments are by me)

Regulatory Limits on Radiation Dose
Safety Limits: What are they? How are they determined?

Much of the discussion concerning radiation levels and radioactive material releases has been presented in the context of safety limits set by a regulator. Examples of such limits include the I-131 limit for drinking water (210 Bq/L) {Banana = 120 Bq/Kg} or an annual occupational radiation dose limit (0.05 Sv){=50 mSV note: it is 50*1mSV} . What is often left out of these discussions is how these limits were determined and what exceeding a limit implies. {This seem to be much misunderstood concept here , IMO - people panic if the dose is higher than limit} This post is intended to provide a general description of the implications of safety limits.

What is a Safety Limit and how are Safety Limits determined?

Safety limits are designed to protect the public from a potential harm and are often set well below the point of potential danger to prevent that point of danger from being accidentally reached. Safety Limits are determined in two steps. First, by identifying the amount of exposure to any given agent, above which causes a health effect to be observed. This amount is determined for the most vulnerable members of the population, and considers the effects of both short and long-term exposure. That resulting number is then divided by a safety factor to ensure that the public is never exposed to dangerous levels. The reason for the safety factor is so the regulator will have time to fix the problem before the levels reach a point that can cause harm to the public, if for whatever reason, the safety limit is exceeded. The more uncertain the dividing line between safety and harm is, the larger the safety factor used to protect the public.

Key Principles of Radiation Protection at Low Radiation Exposure

The probabilistic nature of low-dose radiation health effects makes it impossible to derive a clear distinction between ‘safe’ and ‘dangerous’ level of radiation. This also creates difficulties in explaining the control of radiation risks. The major policy implication is that some finite risk, however small, must be assumed and a level of protection established based on what is deemed acceptable. This leads to a system of protection based on three key principles recognized by the International Commission of Radiation Protection (ICRP) and endorsed by the US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurement (NCRP) and all other national agencies:



- Principle of Justification, based on the analysis of benefit versus risk of exposure;

- Principle of Optimization of Exposure, based on the ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable) principle;

- Principle of limitation of exposure to any person;



The ICRP, in its latest Recommendations on Radiological Protection, stated that for radiation doses below around 100 mSv in a year,{where did we hear this 100 mSv before :) } the increase in the incidence of stochastic effects is assumed to occur with a small probability and in proportion to the increase in radiation dose over the background dose. The use of this so-called linear-non-threshold (LNT) model is considered by the ICRP and by NCRP the best practical approach to managing risk from radiation exposure and commensurate with precautionary principle, being a prudent basis for radiological protection at low doses and low dose rates. However, uncertainties on the over-conservatism on this judgment are recognized by the ICRP and the NCRP, which have stated the need for further evaluation based on new research results.
{most experts do not subscribe to LNT, specially at levels less than 100 mSv}
Despite the fact that the actual onset of latent cancer and other long term effects in relationship to radioactivity exposure is unknown, we do know that those effects are not statistically significant at very low doses. In simpler terms, the number of cancers caused by exposure to low doses of radiation is so small that we can’t sort it out from the noise – the natural rate of cancer incidence.

In 1980, the US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurement (NCRP) published a report examining and quantifying the dose rate effect. In examining all laboratory data regarding tumor induction published at that time, they found that lowering the dose rate from acute (eg 180 mSv/hr) to about 4.8 mSv/hr reduced the rate of tumor generation by an average factor of 4. They called this the ‘dose rate effectiveness factor’, DREF. When the irradiations were much longer term irradiations, comprising “a significant or sizeable fraction of the life span” an even larger reduction in effect was observed, an average of a factor of 10; this was called the ‘protraction factor’ (PF). {yeah.. those comments like fourth root of time etc were not nonsense} With few exceptions, the dose rates used in all of the laboratory studies cited in NCRP 64 used ‘low dose rates’ at least a factor of 4000 times higher than normal background dose rates. It is the results of these experiments and others like them, plus corresponding safety factors, which are used to establish regulatory limits on dose and dose rate to the general public.

However, what is of interest today in Japan are dose-rates more like 10, 30, or 100 times background. What about these dose rates? The problem noted by the NCRP was that deleterious effects of these very low dose rates could not be observed. In fact, low doses and low dose rates led to increased longevity rather than the decreased lifespan seen at higher doses and dose rates. In addressing the apparent life lengthening at low dose rates, the NCRP interpreted this effect as reflecting “a favorable response to low grade injury leading to some degree of systemic stimulation.” They go on to state that “…there appears to be little doubt that mean life span in some animal populations exposed to low level radiation throughout their lifetimes is longer than that of the un-irradiated control population.” In the future, the accurate examination of residents of high background radiation areas around the world might generate the needed information on this phenomenon, which is termed “radiation hormesis”. Based on the presently available data, residents of high background radiation areas (sizeable population is exposed up to 20 mSv per year from natural background) do not appear to suffer adverse effects from these doses.

Areas characterized with background radiation significantly higher than average can be found in Iran, Brazil, India, Australia and China. In the U.S., the population of Denver receives more than 10 mSv per year from natural background. {Something to think about for those who think anything over 1mSv will be fatal}
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

First this story and comment:
chaanakya wrote:It appears that Russia and US and India, in addition to hosts of other countries to follow, do not employ experts to advise them that radiation level is not dangerous.
Then this story:
chaanakya wrote:No ban on food imports from Japan
The government today said that a blanket ban on import of food items from Japan will not be imposed as the situation does not warrant such a strong action.
Thanks. 8)
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

...I have serious doubt that this was really a Black Swan Event.

There was no element of surprise. All this was well known to Japanese people. Quake and Tsunami had a record of occurance in Japan...They made severe design compromises , as evident from various posts. Tepco's all effort so far has been to some how mitigate the accident...
Do we understand that a 9 earthquake has 1000 times more energy than a 7? And a million times more than a 5?
How many 9.0 earthquakes have hit japan in last 100 years? Last 1000? answer AFIK is zero before this one... Actually the last largest one was about 1/10 of this one in terms of energy.

It is very sad that about 20,000 people died, but design flaw in nuclear reactor is not the cause of that.
When all said and done, "nuclear" component in number of deaths is still zero.

We all will like to see better designs in all sorts of things including NPP.

Something to keep in mind.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by GuruPrabhu »

Amber,

I too find this impressive that some folks are unwilling to accept that something really really bizarre happened. Your attempts at illustrating that with figures is appreciated. Secondly, I am astounded at how the design of the nuclear system is being criticized so severely while flawed designs in everyday life are still being allowed and, in some cases, killing people everyday. Some examples:

1. Indian railways still hasn't deployed anti-collision devices (ACD) in trains. The devices have existed for a long time in the west. An Indian invention has been around for nearly a decade and has been tested on Konkan railways. Still, acquisition and deployment is caught up in Babu politics (I know this first hand because I know a Babu involved in the negotiations). This chalta hai attitude of Babudom has killed thousands in the meantime.

2. Indian airports still don't have the latest and greatest automatic landing systems (ALS) that money can buy (except perhaps Dilli and Mumbai). I believe it is called Cat 3 or something. I don't think that it has killed many people but it is an accident waiting to happen. Why are the Babus not working overtime to correct this problem?

3. We have already discussed the case of coal fires and the general free pass that the coal industry is getting with respect to environmental destruction. India is probably the only country with a Minister for Coal (maybe a state minister now?). What the heck does this ministry do besides collecting bribes?

4. Road accidents. AFAIK, India has the highest fatality rate in the world when normalized to number of vehicles. Case in point is the new shiny Delhi-Gurgaon expressway which has the well documented design flaw in terms of not having enough pedestrian overbridges. The DGE is busy killing people, it gets reported in the papers and Babus just do a ho-hum.

5. Drinking water. No need to tell you that water supply is disgusting in all Indian cities. Has there been a study of how many infant deaths are caused by water-borne diseases? I am sure someone has data on this. What are the Babus doing about it? Who is responsible for this systematic murder?

6. Bhopal. Yes, the big bad one. How much was the liability cap raised by Babus in response to this black swan event.

The list is very long but I hope folks get the idea.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

TEPCO begins building steel wall, fence around plant to prevent sea contamination
Saturday 09th April, 12:01 PM JST

The operator of a crippled Fukushima nuclear power station started Saturday to install a steel wall and fence to prevent more water containing radioactive substances from seeping into the Pacific Ocean.

Tokyo Electric Power Co plans to plug a seawater intake connected to the No. 2 reactor of the Fukushima Daiichi complex with seven steel sheets and a 120-meter-wide curtain-like fence near the intake and two other locations nearby.

The company already stopped the leakage of water contaminated with radioactive materials from near the intake Wednesday. But it went with the construction of the steel sheet wall and the so-called silt fence to allay environmental concerns that have been raised domestically and internationally.

Radioactive iodine reading was 63,000 times the legal limit in seawater near the intake a day after contaminated water stopped leaking into the sea.

Along with efforts to stop the leakage of toxic water, TEPCO also released about 9,000 tons of water containing relatively low-level radioactive materials into the Pacific, saying the massive amount of such water in the premises slowed the work to get the plant under control.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... _world.php

I understand Chile was cited as reference for Fukushima preceding its construction.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

Historical Tsunamis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historic_tsunamis

Check the list from 1900-1950 and 1950-2000 and how many are in Japan.
Two of them are marked on G earth and posted in previous posts with details.

Geological events don't know national or even prefectural boundaries.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

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TEPCO steps up effort to remove contaminated water
The operator of the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has stepped up its effort to remove highly radioactive water that is hampering restoration of reactor cooling systems.

Tokyo Electric Power Company says contaminated water in a concrete tunnel of the Number 2 reactor has risen 10 centimeters since leakage of the water into the ocean stopped on Wednesday.

The company says the gap between the surface of the waste water and the top of the tunnel was 94 centimeters as of 7 AM on Saturday. It denies any possibility that the water could overflow from the tunnel.

The source of the contaminated water has not been identified.
TEPCO plans to transfer the waste water either to a processing facility for nuclear waste or turbine condensers depending on the progress in current operations.

The company also continues discharging less-radioactive water into the ocean from the processing facility to make room for more-radioactive water.

Some 7,700 tons of less-radioactive water have been released into the sea and the release of the remaining 800 tons is expected to come to an end on Saturday.

In a separate operation to inject nitrogen gas into the containment vessel of the Number 1 reactor to prevent a possible hydrogen explosion, TEPCO plans to increase the purity of nitrogen gas from 98 percent to 99.98 percent.

The plant operator says a strong aftershock on Thursday night did not damage any facilities of the compound, but the surface temperature of the Number 1 reactor rose sharply immediately after the tremor that hit northeastern Japan minutes before midnight.

The reading stood at 223 degrees Celsius at 7 PM, but it rose nearly 40 degrees just after the quake. The temperature had fallen back to 240 degrees at 6 AM on Saturday.

TEPCO says it will continue close monitoring as what caused the sudden rise in temperature is not known.

The company also plans to fly an unmanned small helicopter equipped with an infrared camera over the plant to take pictures of facilities that it has been unable to check. It hopes the photos will help to determine how to proceed with restoration work.
Saturday, April 09, 2011 12:36 +0900 (JST)
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by GuruPrabhu »

chaanakya wrote:Geological events don't know national or even prefectural boundaries.
Nice link. I noticed these two:

1524 Near Dabhol, Maharashtra

16 June 1819 Rann of Kachchh, Gujarat, India

Should BARC be shut down immediately, pending the construction of a 100m tall tsunami wall?
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

Power firms under pressure to review backup plans
Thursday's major earthquake has forced nuclear power plants and related facilities in northern Japan to rely on emergency power after their electricity was cut off.

No major safety problems occurred, but people are calling on power companies to review their backup plans so that they can better deal with such contingencies.

Thursday's quake knocked out all external power lines at Higashidori nuclear power plant in Aomori Prefecture, forcing it to use emergency diesel generators.

The tremor also disabled all external power lines at a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Aomori Prefecture.
It also shut down 3 of the 4 external power lines at the Onagawa nuclear plant in Miyagi Prefecture.

Since the March 11th quake and tsunami, operations have been suspended at all nuclear power plants from Aomori to Ibaraki prefectures. But electricity is still crucial, because the plants need to keep their cooling systems working.

Utility firms are deploying power-generating vehicles as part of an additional backup effort, in case both the existing emergency systems and diesel-powered generators fail.

But pressure is rising on power companies to review their backup plans to deal with such scenarios.
Saturday, April 09, 2011 09:06 +0900 (JST)
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

Japan, ASEAN to focus on nuclear power safety, disaster management
JAKARTA, April 9, Kyodo
Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are set to hold a foreign ministerial meeting Saturday in Jakarta, where delegates are expected to call for closer coordination to boost the safety of nuclear power plants in the wake of the nuclear crisis in Japan.

Foreign ministers and senior officials from Japan and the 10-member ASEAN will agree to share experiences, information and knowledge that Tokyo has acquired from last month's magnitude-9.0 earthquake and tsunami that devastated northeastern and eastern Japan and caused radioactive substance to leak from a nuclear power plant, according to a draft chairman's statement to be issued after the meeting.

Indonesia, which was hit by the 2004 Sumatra quake and tsunami, proposed the ''special meeting'' in the wake of the March 11 disaster in Japan, which has killed nearly 13,000 people and left nearly 15,000 others missing.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

In fact, low doses and low dose rates led to increased longevity rather than the decreased lifespan seen at higher doses and dose rates. In addressing the apparent life lengthening at low dose rates, the NCRP interpreted this effect as reflecting “a favorable response to low grade injury leading to some degree of systemic stimulation.” They go on to state that “…there appears to be little doubt that mean life span in some animal populations exposed to low level radiation throughout their lifetimes is longer than that of the un-irradiated control population.”
Next stage is to Market Radium Water Tonic and other products for Longevity. Not a new idea . of course duly diluted . Fukushima water??
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

Unintended consequence of Fukushima

I went to Okushiri Island, Hokkaido, shortly after it was devastated by a tsunami in 1993 and Aceh, Indonesia, following a tsunami in 2004. Houses, automobiles and ships swept away by tsunami in Okushiri, Aceh and Fukushima demonstrated nature's overwhelming power. However, Fukushima Prefecture is completely different from the two other areas in that nobody is seen in some of these devastated areas.

In Okushiri and Aceh, people began to restore the tsunami-ravaged areas immediately after the disasters, demonstrating people's strong willpower. In Fukushima, however, residents near the nuclear plant cannot approach their neighborhoods out of fear that they would be exposed to radiation leaking from the plant.

Over several days from the March 11 disaster, more lives could have been saved in Fukushima if the nuclear plant had remained intact. Many people were actually rescued in Miyagi and Iwate prefectures over the same period, but high levels of radiation prevented rescue workers from entering areas near the Fukushima plant. One cannot help but wonder how local residents felt about the situation that prevented search and rescue operations.

The crisis at the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant has also caused enormous damage to local farmers and fishermen, which can be called destruction of their livelihoods. More sadly, however, many local residents were prevented from identifying the bodies of their family members. Those who have lost their lives have been abandoned near the plant. In other words, the nuclear crisis has left the dignity of disaster victims in tatters.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

Zubin Mehta to conduct Tokyo charity concert
Acclaimed conductor Zubin Mehta has arrived in Japan to conduct a charity concert benefitting the survivors of the March 11th disaster.

Mehta arrived in Tokyo from Russia on Friday. He held a rehearsal with the NHK Symphony Orchestra, which will perform Beethoven's Symphony Number 9 in Tokyo on Sunday. All proceeds will go to the disaster-hit areas.

Before the rehearsal, Mehta told orchestra members that he hopes for Japan's recovery, and that his thoughts are with the people.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by niran »

chaanakya wrote:Unintended consequence of Fukushima

<snip>
However, Fukushima Prefecture is completely different from the two other areas in that nobody is seen in some of these devastated areas.

<snip>
absolute lie! have been visiting the area almost on daily basis, there were workers on S&R right from the start
as is with all other affected areas, no one died for the lack of rescue that i can assure you, people(who are still alive) have left the area most probably for good so with no one coming back there is no incentive to redevelop quickly, it will be done but currently low on priorities.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

niran wrote:
chaanakya wrote:Unintended consequence of Fukushima

<snip>
However, Fukushima Prefecture is completely different from the two other areas in that nobody is seen in some of these devastated areas.

<snip>
absolute lie! have been visiting the area almost on daily basis, there were workers on S&R right from the start
as is with all other affected areas, no one died for the lack of rescue that i can assure you, people(who are still alive) have left the area most probably for good so with no one coming back there is no incentive to redevelop quickly, it will be done but currently low on priorities.
I take your word since you are on the spot. May be a letter to the Daily would be in order.That is if you get time.

Are you sure they are not going to come there sooner and why?
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Christopher Sidor »

We in India tend to regard Japanese technologies and technical advances in high esteem. Because of their few companies in the electronics, consumer electronics and automobiles a reputation of very high quality and build is associated with japan and everything built in japan. But as the high rate of recall of Japanese automobiles show, for example toyota and maruti suzuki recently, this is not actually the case. Granted that on an average a Japanese product is of superior quality than its say Korean or Indian counterpart.

Further the nuclear industry is a different beast. Just because a company X in Japan makes the worlds best cars and is the worlds biggest car manufacturer, does not imply that company Y in Japan which is engaged in nuclear industry will have a similar and high standard. The operator of the Fukushima had some very basic design flaws. They put the generators on the ground level. They put the backup supply very near to the ground. And worse they did not consider the combination of an earthquake and tusnami, even after the deadly sumatra tsunami of early 2000s. The reactor was meant to withstand the earthquake and that it did. What it was not designed to withstand was the 10 feet high waves.
This is a design flaw. If the generators had been put on higher ground or the backup supply had been put on an elevated area, we would not be seeing this horror unfold in front of us. We in India did that, specifically with reactors in TN.

The point I am making over here, is that let us not associate the high quality of Japanese consumer electronics or certain other products with its nuclear reactors. Japan may have made tremendous technical progress, but this progress hides a thousand flaws. Japanese are not perfect. We should not live under the assumption that what happened in Japan will automatically happen over here or worse will happen over here.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by niran »

chaanakya wrote: Are you sure they are not going to come there sooner and why?
the why is a cultural thing, to build these reactors all kinds of methods were used
right up to "for King and country" thingie, you have to understand Japanese have this
"duty before self" wired into them so they will allow buildings of reactors, but a leak and
all those hungama about big bad Nuke reactors by media have made Japanese Government
to lose face(absolutely no no in Japan) so survivors will be relocated with better monetary and other benefit compared to residents of other areas.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Singha »

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42498312/ns ... iapacific/

old main waited weeks for help until found by reporters, wife still missing...

"the elves of rivendell"... :(
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

GuruPrabhu wrote:Amber,

I too find this impressive that some folks are unwilling to accept that something really really bizarre happened. Your attempts at illustrating that with figures is appreciated. Secondly, I am astounded at how the design of the nuclear system is being criticized so severely while flawed designs in everyday life are still being allowed and, in some cases, killing people everyday. Some examples:

1. Indian railways still hasn't deployed anti-collision devices (ACD) in trains.
<snip>
6. Bhopal. Yes, the big bad one. How much was the liability cap raised by Babus in response to this black swan event.

The list is very long but I hope folks get the idea.
GuruPrabhu - Thanks for an excellent post.
Meanwhile it is heartening to see that there is sanity in the world in spite of utter nonsense spewed out by a few.

In International Atomic Energy Agency's first major international nuclear safety meeting following the crisis at Fukushima, director general Yukiya Amano had this to say
Fukushima had not changed the basic drivers behind interest in nuclear power: rising global energy demand as well as concerns about climate change, volatile fossil fuel prices and energy security. Nuclear power has contributed to expanding the supply of energy and has also reduced greenhouse gas and other emissions,

A side meeting about the events in Japan and the initial response from safety regulators around the world included presentations by specialists from Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco), and representatives from USA and European nuclear regulatory bodies.

In a press conference following the event, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission chairman Gregory Jaczko, Western European Nuclear Regulators' Association (WENRA) chairman Jukka Laaksonen and European Nuclear Safety Regulators Group (NSREG) chairman Andrej Stritar all offered reassurances about the safety of the operating nuclear plants in their countries to current standards. Referring to recently announced European plans for so-called stress tests to be carried out at all nuclear reactors, Stritar commented: "The question with stress tests is not are the plants safe, but how do we make them safer?"

Also from Japanese people and leaders I hear lot of sanity. Instead of wondering if Becquerel is a banana from Uranus, or q=mct will prove that 1mSV will cause 1,000,000 cancers, or "down with BWR" sloganbazi they are already planning for rebuilding .. not only about how to make NPP safer but how to build houses up on mountain side, and commute to fishing ports down.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

chaanakya wrote:Historical Tsunamis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historic_tsunamis

Check the list from 1900-1950 and 1950-2000 and how many are in Japan.
Two of them are marked on G earth and posted in previous posts with details.

Geological events don't know national or even prefectural boundaries.
While checking.. can you also check this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ea ... s_in_Japan
And count how many 9.0 are there?
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by vina »

And count how many 9.0 are there?
I had already posted that relevant one liner long ago after the DDM article on how Delhi cant withstand a 8.0 Richter "Japanese style earthquake which was 8.9".
1.01 is similar to 1.99 because they start with 1! vina TM .. BRRRRRRRR
And with that kind of Madrassa Math, where I have to use my hands AND feet to be able to count upto 20, I concluded along with the DDM.

8.0 earthquake is similar to 8.9 earthquake because they start with 8.

Now you "rational" Fyzzicists come and scare the Bejeezus out of us by saying, uh. oh.. wrong.. between 8 to 8.9, there is a big difference in the energy released in an earthquake , orders of magnitude more, some 10000000000 times more! Scary.. So next time , there is an earthquake of magitude 3.5 , some 0.3 above the usual 3.2 or something, you will have us all shivering in our dhotis here in Bangalore Kerala, and we will call Anna Saheb here to Bangalore to lead a campaign to pull down all buildings over 1 storey becuase , they can't stand a "Japanese style" earthquake.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

:rotfl: ^^^ This, unfortunately is already happening...People are already telling us how the "higher" radiation rate from Fukushima will kill our children (here in US) . (The logic is, uncanny.. very similar to what you posed above :-o )
Last edited by Amber G. on 09 Apr 2011 20:57, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

Gov't bans rice planting in contaminated soil

The Japaneses government announced Saturday it will ban farmers from planting rice in soil contaminated by radiation from the tsunami-flooded nuclear power plant, adding another food central to Japanese culture to the list of items raising concerns.

The ban will apply to any soil found to contain high levels of radioactive cesium, and farmers who cannot grow rice will be compensated.

So far, soil that exceeds the new limit has been found in only two places in Iitate, a village about 40 kilometers from Fukushima Daiichi,
the nuclear plant crippled by the March 11 tsunami.

“We had to come up with a policy quickly because we are in planting season,” said Agriculture Minister Michihiko Kano.. “Following this, I want to hear the opinions of experts and local officials on how to remediate the soil.”
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

x-post
somnath wrote:Wonder how this got missed out in the discussions...R Rajaraman on the dangers of panic...

http://www.hindu.com/2011/04/09/stories ... 981600.htm
In the Fukushima case, the radiation measured even as near as 50 km from the plant was 0.1 to 0.7 micro-seiverts/ hour. Continued exposure to that dosage even for a whole year would be less radiation than one CT scan.
Worth quoting in full..
It is almost a month since multiple disaster struck Japan. Yet not a single member of the public has been reported killed by radioactivity from the nuclear reactor complex in Fukushima. Meanwhile, estimates of the death toll due to the direct onslaught of the tsunami and the earthquake have long crossed 10,000 with many more injured and rendered homeless. Despite this, the radioactivity leaking out from Fukushima has received as much attention from the news media, the public and the governments of the world as the plight of the quake-tsunami victims. Such is the grip of the fear of radioactivity on the public! Is this level of fear warranted by objective facts?

Well, there is no denying that radioactivity can be extremely hazardous. A large dose of 10,000 milli-sieverts or more will kill you in days, and even a tenth of that dose can lead to acute radiation sickness of various ghastly forms. Even much smaller doses can increase the chances of your getting cancer. Therefore, whenever there is any mishap involving things nuclear, one can well understand the public's anxiety.

If the anxiety has often been excessive, one must try to understand why, rather than blame the public. There is a scary mysteriousness to nuclear radiation. It can penetrate the body, destroy internal organs, cause cancer and induce grotesque birth defects. Yet it is invisible, has no smell or colour. There are few immediate signs, apart from skin burns, of the terrible damage done to the interior of the body. The inability to detect nuclear radiation with the human senses, and the possibility of dreadful after-effects developing years later, has created an almost irrational dread in people's minds.

Adding to the mystification is the genuine difficulty in determining, in quantitative scientific terms, how much damage small radiation doses can do. Fatalities due to high doses are less in dispute, although fewer in reactor accidents. In the worst reactor explosion in history, at Chernobyl, altogether 62 people died from high doses in the vicinity. Astonishingly, these 62 (which include 34 workers sent into the reactor to control the damage) were the only fatalities that could be unambiguously attributed to radiation from Chernobyl. Undoubtedly Chernobyl killed many more people, but most would have died of cancer due to smaller doses farther away. The difficulty lies in estimating how many. A U.N. Chernobyl Forum study estimated about 4000 deaths over the years worldwide due to the fallout from Chernobyl. But this has been hotly disputed by others, some with estimates in the lakhs. Such disparities arise because low-dose induced cancers can develop slowly over years, and cannot be empirically distinguished from the much larger background of total cancer deaths due to other factors — various natural causes, tobacco, pesticides etc. Theoretically too, the no-threshold linear model, which would predict a larger death toll, is not universally accepted by all biologists. {Actually I have seen NO reputable scientist who accepts it - it is called "hypothesis" with no data to support it to make it acceptable} Unfortunately, this vast uncertainty is a fertile ground for unsubstantiated wild claims.

The response to Fukushima illustrates this. While the fears of people living in Japan about radioactive contamination are well justified, the level of anxiety in the rest of the world has been quite disproportionate to the actual threat. In Delhi, SMS messages were circulated warning people not to go out in the rain lest they be showered by radioactivity coming from Japan. In China, people started consuming iodised salt in large and potentially harmful quantities. Eventually, the WHO was compelled to call for calm on its Twitter page. Much farther away, drug stores in Russia's Far East and British Columbia have reported shortages of iodine pills. Californians, always game for health paranoia, also joined in stocking up with iodine pills. The news media, while reporting traces of fallout at various distant places, typically fail to mention how small those doses are. In fact the fallout from Fukushima in California was minuscule, as could have been predicted in advance. The Chernobyl fallout has been studied extensively and what fell on the U.K. was less dangerous, cancer-wise, than smoking a cigarette a year. In the Fukushima case, the radiation measured even as near as 50 km from the plant was 0.1 to 0.7 micro-seiverts/ hour. Continued exposure to that dosage even for a whole year would be less radiation than one CT scan.

The public is not expected to have expertise in radiation hazards, and cannot be blamed if it fears radiation dangers excessively. But governments and others who shape public opinion can be blamed. Unfortunately, sometimes they too pander to populist fears. For example, the German Foreign Minister described Fukushima, even as it was unfolding, as an “Apocalypse”. This was clearly an extreme assessment. Not even the Chernobyl disaster, much worse than Fukushima, could be termed an Apocalypse. The Germans promptly shut down seven of their older reactors despite having earlier decided to extend their lifetimes, which they must have no doubt done after a full review of their condition and safety features. Nothing happened at Fukushima to warrant reversing their own decision.

The Fukushima reactor explosions were caused, not by their age, condition or poor maintenance, but from a failure outside the reactor system — a disruption, due to the quake, of electric supply needed to pump water to cool the fuel rods. In fact the physical structures of all six reactors at Fukushima seem to have survived the direct onslaught of an 8.9 level earthquake followed by a giant Tsunami — a testimony to their sturdiness.

There is also much speculation that the Fukushima disaster will, or should, stop the emerging nuclear renaissance. That again would be a retrograde step. We are not blindly advocating nuclear energy here, as against wind, solar and other renewable sources, nor claiming that it will substantially mitigate global warming. Admittedly, these are all debatable. Public discussion on them has been going on for years. And the pros and cons are well known. Countries like India and China have decided, in the face of those pros and cons, to expand the nuclear sector to meet their energy requirements. The point is that, as we have argued already, the events in Fukushima do not fundamentally alter those arguments and do not call for changing that decision.

This is not to say that there are no lessons to be learnt from Fukushima. Indeed there are several. Criteria for locating reactors in areas prone to natural disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes should be made even more stringent. In designing backup systems, as for instance in cooling the reactor, one should try to ensure that the different layers of back-up are not vulnerable to the same external disaster. Their utility as backups then fails, as happened in Fukushima. The problem of over-pressurisation in containment vessels and the resultant need to vent radioactive gases has to be addressed more stringently.

Turning to India, the Fukushima explosions should be taken as an opportunity to review and tighten up safety measures at all nuclear facilities. This our government is doing. We have to specially double-check the quake-resistance of the Narora plant and perhaps consider shifting the Jaitapur plant to a less earthquake prone zone. We should ensure that in the government's desire to rapidly expand our nuclear capacity, matters of safety are not compromised.

Finally, this is a good opportunity to demand greater transparency from nuclear establishments all over the world. This is overdue. The Fukushima disaster demonstrates the lack of credibility of nuclear agencies in the public's mind, as evidenced by the latter's lack of faith in official assurances. This is not an easy problem to solve. We live in an age where people want the benefits of extremely complex technology, but are also suspicious of it. In India our government as well as social activists must be proactive in educating the public about nuclear hazards, but in a responsible and balanced manner. Neither bland assurances nor the stoking of hysterical fears will serve the public good.

(R. Rajaraman is Emeritus Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, and Co-Chair, International Panel on Fissile Materials.)
Some thing along the line I and others have posted here...
Last edited by Amber G. on 09 Apr 2011 21:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

niran wrote:
chaanakya wrote: Are you sure they are not going to come there sooner and why?
the why is a cultural thing, to build these reactors all kinds of methods were used
right up to "for King and country" thingie, you have to understand Japanese have this
"duty before self" wired into them so they will allow buildings of reactors, but a leak and
all those hungama about big bad Nuke reactors by media have made Japanese Government
to lose face(absolutely no no in Japan) so survivors will be relocated with better monetary and other benefit compared to residents of other areas.
That is not so clear. " all kinds of methods" ?

Do you have any indication so far that areas within evacuation zone will be rehabilitated? It would be interesting to know how they go about rehabilitating the evacuation zone around NPP ( 20-30 Km zone)?

yea , its cultural thing etc.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

15-meter waves hit Fukushima
The operator of the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant says the facility was hit by a tsunami as high as 15 meters on March 11th.

Tokyo Electric Power Company was reporting on Saturday on its survey of high-water marks left on the plant's buildings.

It says it found that the tsunami reached up to 15 meters on the ocean side of the reactor and turbine buildings. The figure is far beyond the company's originally estimated height of 5.7 meters.

TEPCO confirmed that the 6 reactors at Fukushima Daiichi power plant had been under as much as 5 meters of water.

TEPCO also revealed video footage taken by a plant worker during the tsunami. The man captured the images with his mobile phone while fleeing for higher ground.

The footage shows the waves pounding against cliffs to a height of more than 20 meters.
Saturday, April 09, 2011 22:09 +0900 (JST)
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

Nuclear safety review in Japan

Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says the safety measures for nuclear plants compiled before the problem at the Fukushima Daiichi facility are not sufficient.

Senior agency official Hidehiko Nishiyama spoke to reporters on Saturday.

He said he thought nuclear power plants across Japan were completely safe because they included multiple layers of protection systems.

But he said it is necessary to re-examine safety protocols beyond the regulations formulated in the past and to review the measures based on what happened to the nuclear power plants in the quake-hit areas.

The reactors at the Fukushima plant lost their emergency generators as well as their external power supply after the March 11th earthquake and tsunami.

Plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Company has not yet restored the reactors' cooling systems.

Thursday's major aftershock disabled all outside power lines at Higashidori nuclear power plant in Aomori Prefecture.

The operator was able to use emergency power generators and eventually restored outside power.
But later it found that the emergency power generators were not functioning properly.
Saturday, April 09, 2011 22:10 +0900 (JST)
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

chaanakya wrote:Amber Garu Please take my sincere apology...
.
Thanks. That helps. It is helpful if all sides are civil in discussion.

It will also be helpful, if you read some of my posts carefully as I have tried to be as clear and accurate as possible, while still keeping the discussion in layman's terms. I have also been careful to clearly state what is my opinion vs what is data and facts.

The banana equivalent dose for example, has also been posted in http://xkcd.com/radiation/ and has been refereed by many sites (including NY times, LA times, CNN). None has questioned its scientific accuracy.

Point there was not to score debating points, but the hope that people I care for "understand" , for example, implication of 1mSv dose, and do not avoid a necessary CT scan (8mSv) because of misinformation.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

OPINION: Sheer devastation reminds us of human, technological limitations
By Sharon Squassoni
WASHINGTON, April 8, Kyodo
The Japanese people have demonstrated an incredible and admirable resilience in the face of the overwhelming devastation wrought by the earthquake and tsunami about a month ago.

The additional challenge of averting severe damage at the Fukushima nuclear power reactors prolonged the crisis, and significant challenges still lie ahead. The seriousness of the damage there will require months of effort to minimize health and environmental risks of radiation releases.

Modernity demands faith in man's mastery of the elements but the sheer devastation reminds us of our human and technological limitations.

One question that has repeatedly arisen is how Japan, with its technological prowess, could find itself in a situation of so much uncertainty.

More than 10 days passed without offsite electricity to the plants at Fukushima Daiichi, which limited the amount of critical information about the status of water levels in some reactors and spent fuel pools. Lack of electricity and rising radiation levels have hampered the restoration effort.

Many observers, both in Japan and abroad, have raised questions about the extent of what Tokyo Electric Power Company knew and what information it released.

But nuclear accidents, like wars, have their own ''fog.'' It was only many months later at Three Mile Island that officials realized how much of the reactor core had melted at Unit 2.

Lack of information and invisible threats like radiation raise fears in the public. Governments that license nuclear power plants have an obligation to educate their publics about the risks and benefits, in equal measure.

Part of that obligation is to find real solutions to nuclear waste.

Reprocessing spent fuel in a quixotic quest for energy independence which is unattainable in an interdependent world has significant costs -- financial, environmental and those related to nuclear security.

For too long, nuclear energy proponents have indulged in a faith-based support of the technology.

As Japan ponders its energy future, it is time to make informed choices and rational actions about the kind of energy that is truly sustainable, at costs that are acceptable to the public.

(Sharon Squassoni serves as director and senior fellow of the Proliferation Prevention Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.)
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Sanku »

http://planetsave.com/2011/04/04/german ... ear-power/

Germany Abandons Nuclear Power
Germany will shut down all its nuclear power stations by 2020, according to the government’s Secretary of State for the Environment and Nuclear Safety, Jürgen Becker.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Sanku »

Seems like yes, in context of Fukushima.
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